Comments by "Jeffrey Deuitch" (@jeffreydeuitch2146) on "REDFIN: Home Prices Are Crashing FASTER Than 2008" video.

  1. Will need some capitulation before seeing wider spread price drops. There has to be pain in holding cost combined with lost confidence and belief in the "seasonal" narrative. Then the run for the exits occurs.
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  2. Would recommend looking at monthly or 3 month changes in median price. Much more indicative of real time movement, but acknowledge that the YOY will be the biggest sentiment change. The CS YOY national index is the most quoted in media. Once this goes negative the lights go out. This will peak when the CS index reflects one year from peak, which appears to be May-June 2022. Given lag, this will be the CS report published about July of 2023. This will shock and should easily show in negative double digits.
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  3. But not surprising. Those of us in RE services in the 2002 to 2006 period have seen this dance before. I was also there during the S&L crisis days 1987 to 1991 and easily predicted the 06 to 2010 period without surprise. Different torpedoes in each case but all predicated by human nature which is predictable and repeatable.
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