Youtube comments of Jeffrey Deuitch (@jeffreydeuitch2146).

  1. In most larger modern developments, the properties are available well before completion. They go under contract way earlier. Some are contracted prior to ground breaking.. builders are not going to carry 10s of millions of dollars of finished inventory prior to marketing efforts.
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  2. Not quite sure how lowered appreciation is a good sign for priced out buyers. If they are already priced out then they will still be priced out at 3% higher. This is exact carbon copy of the logic and rhetoric of 2005. Things have to depreciate for housing to be more affordable. Been professionally involved in real estate services since the S&L crisis days of the late 1980s. Therefore seen 2 down cycles in past. The language and sentiment shifts have been the safe. Beware the "it's different this time" narrative.
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  3. Expect some inventory increase and reduction in demand when speculators do not see appreciation growth ahead.
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  4. The worlds universal currency will be the Yuan soon. Any wonder why?
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  5. The big reason here in Florida we have so much in migration is personal freedoms. No lockdowns, mask or vax mandates and a gov who fights to keep it that way. Dont have to talk to very many folks to see this. Wont prevent a RE downturn if a big trend gets rolling, but certainly buffers. Certainly housing bubble taking hold, but sales and prices holding steady at moment. Future uncertain.
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  6. Wait until the rent bubble pops. As jobs slow, obtainable Air B&B types will have lower pricing power which will certainly drop long term conventional lease rates. Will result in negative cast flow at prevailing prices and hence lead to lower sales prices. In late boom, negative cash flow was the norm but was acceptable due to value appreciation, in that respect it is "different this time" and may lead to accelerated downturn in next few years. Regardless of interest rates, many will bail when prices will fall. My guess is that current increase in inventory is result of fear of dropping value and getting out ahead of the curve. For those not old enough to remember 07 and a bit later, imagine looking down the average side street, one after another, and seeing about every third house with a for sale sign. A massive display for marketing litter on nearly every street. I saw pools in empty homes which had hundreds of frogs around the patios and thousands of tadpoles swimming in the pools. In The Big Short there was the scene where an alligator was in the pool and tons of mail laid out on the kitchen counter. Never saw a pool gator but saw the mail on floor and many large personal items such as furniture left behind that did not fit on the truck when the owners had to leave. Also in the closing sequences of that movie, there is a quick image of one of those streets with all the for sale signs. That is not fiction. For all those in doubt and still interested in real estate, consider how your circumstance would be affected if those images are again seen in reality. Have been there before and it is sureal.
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  7. You dont need subprime to have foreclosures. Once value drops way below loan balance, many will lose interest in making payments and ride out for couple years until foreclosed. Taxes do not drop proportional to value drop and insurance rates are high and generally dont drop unless petitioned so hold costs remain high. If income or employment drop, the decision gets made. Cash buyers bail to recoup as much as possible. It's so obvious and rooted in history.
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  8. MLS is not typically used to market new construction. However, in our area some large scale builders are putting more on.
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  9. Only time will tell. Bubbles can be amazingly resilient. Remembering thinking the same thing and having discussions with RE investor friends in 2004, then 2005 happened. They thought I was nuts. Then 2006 saw changing weather, figuratively speaking, and by early 07, writing was on the law. Funny thing, in those 04 discussions, my more optimistic investor friends had every logical argument on why things would keep going and saw no real reason why things could slow and definitely no way they could retreat. Sound familiar?
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  10. You are national treasure. Great style and ability to send the message clear. Great humor in delivery of a serious message.
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  11. You know Travis, despite the fact that we look at analysis in assessing the state of things, and I do this professionally, sometimes just zooming out a bit is helpful. Here is a basic one, and I remember doing this after things fell apart last time. During the boom years of 04 to 05, despite silly high levels, there was a sense of "normality" to it which is why folks bid RE up without thought. Then by 08-2011 when the "new normal" hit, we looked back and wondered how we ever viewed 04-05 as "normal". Like we must have been in some kind of opium trance and eventually the smoke cleared and we could once again see clearly with the forward thought of "never again" will we make the same mistake. Fast forward to 2021-2022 and we were there again. Is the smoke starting to clear again now? Amazing how people have viewed what a $600k house should be? In my area it is a surprisingly modest home. Wonder how this price point will be viewed in say 2 years from now? Replay? It seems crazy how views of "normality" can change. Regards.
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  12. The tax explanation was not correct. Tax bills have both ad valorum and and non ad valorun components as well as special assessments. Not based on purchase price but on !comps somewhat similar to standard appraisal practice as for the value. It is called mass appraisal and done by computerized algorithms. Additionally the non ad valorum portion is paid in advance whereas the ad valorum part is paid in arrears. Those interested should contact their local tax collectors office for details. It is not a simple calculation. For modern walled PUDs the CDD fees are typically included in the tax bill which can increase the tax bill significantly. I am speaking for Florida only.
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  13. Anyone have any "on the ground" updates from over there? I think the people on the street may have better view than the news outlets.
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  14. The other thing to consider about small vs large builders is that the big guys in house lending for new construction tends to be end loans rather than perm loans with draws. That is, with end loans, title transfers to the owner at final closing along with the liabilities that go with it. Perhaps Travis can do a segment to help viewers understand the difference. It is important to understand. Of course, people go with smaller custom home builders for different reasons than buying tract homes with the big guys.
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  15. In reviewing recent sales in our area, I occasionally run into open door or offer pad sales. They are nearly always selling for less than they paid.
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  16. Not to mention the cost of replacement of batteries when they fail. One popular model is about $16,000 to replace the batteries. Some who bought a used EV have learned this absolutely the hard way!
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  17. I have reviewed about 2000 builder contracts and find some buy downs but more commonly the incentives are closing cost contributions for use of in house financing or rebates for high options packages. Also discounts against standard site premiums for locations on ponds, preserves or other desirable locations. This allows stability for base prices for given models of house.
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  18. If you give those creeps a response, they will keep doing it. No need to respond to their jobs. Just ignore them and thus marginalize their importance. They are not worth the effort
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  19. Been there for last 2 downturns. Bingo! As soon as prices drop, those with investment properties sell. It is time to take profits. More inventory, less demand and will to drop prices to get out before the others. Not rocket science and anchored in historical trends.
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  20. Have you done similar analyses on other materials such as steel, concrete, roofing etc? Would be interested in seeing if other materials are following suit?
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  21. In Florida there are tax protections for homesteads. Was put in place many years ago in the Save Our Homes act. Sounds like it may be different in other states.
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  22. What is really interesting is how quickly the price cuts are coming. Over past year or 2 people have gotten use to rapid contracting. Historically 60 to 90 days was typical and sometimes longer with modest cuts or accepting a slightly lower offer. Now, people get antsy when properties do not get contracted within a month. Kind of a conditioned seller FOMO. This will work out better for those holding out to purchase. During the gfc, I remember seeing DOMs routinely 6 to 8 months with numerous price cuts. Holding costs are levering sellers to greater extent than in the old days. Interesting how things shift. Of course fear of higher rates may be catalyst.
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  23. What's going on is that builders will cut prices to move product. Typical owners are often hamstrung by mortgage balances or otherwise have financial reason which prevent.
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  24. Hey Todd. You are right on. We may be in same age and similar experiences. You may have been in the industry, like myself, it the late 80s debacle which led to the complete destruction of the Savings and Loans and their insurer, the FSLIC. That period made predicting the post 2006 events pretty easy. Both of these periods provide some support for forecasting near future events, although obviously not certain. Repeats in history really seem to have roots in the repeatability of human nature. This is why I have difficulty in the "different this time" narrative. I am a service provider primarily for new construction sales and I am seeing many of the same issues which are being reported by different podcasters. If you are on the inside of this industry, the changes occurring are pretty obvious. Keep up the great work.
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  25. Great video as always. Watched a couple of vintage episodes of Miami Vice this past weekend. Your videos are reminiscent of those episodes and you really do resemble Don Johnson as Crockett. You need to do a collab with someone who looks like Tubbs. That would be surreal and plug in some background music from Jan Hammer! Retro.
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  26. People would be shocked if they would realize how much of first few years payments go to nearly all interest and how little applies to principal. When you refinance, as Michael states, you are back to beginning of the amortization schedule and hence much higher proportion going to interest once again. The results in extremely high rate of interest if house sells in first few years. The things people dont understand!
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  27. Big Lots in our area has become a full price retailer. Very few decent deals anymore. Food prices as high as typical grocery prices. Christmas stuff is sticker shock. Dont really see purpose in them anymore. Perhaps overstock and closeouts are not available to them any longer.
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  28. We were fortunate in Sarasota/Manatee county area. Damage here is minimal and mainly trees fallen on houses. Naples/Ft Myers was catastrophic. We avoided tidal surge since storm did not get north of us while still in gulf. When storm is south of you, it pushes the water out to sea due to counterclockwise wind motion. Had this come ashore north of Tampa, flood damage would have been much more severe. Would have been like what was seen in Ft Myers, but in major metro
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  29. Here in Florida we were also strong going into 06 to 07 period. Builders are offering up many incentives which can certainly affect resales. Taxes and insurance can definitely affect mortgage underwriting.
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  30. You should ask Steve for the hurricane perspective. He was in the worst of it. I rode it out at home a little north of Steve with about 90 to 100 mph winds. Was quite the experience. Lasted many, many hours. Remember Federal backed flood insurance has limited coverage. To cover large house fully for flood, requires private flood insurance for the gap. Very. Very expensive if you live in A or V zones. That will also enter into the equation. No crystal ball, but if employment/business environment degrades significantly, watch out below.
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  31. Yes, but HOAs also put rules that for many seem draconian. If you are not compatible with LOTS of rules, don't by into an association. Want to plant a fruit tree? Well, proposed at one meeting then take some months prior to get "approvals" it's a double edged sword and can slice your own living preferences. Many learn this the hard way.
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  32. Not long ago I went to checkers for their special which was 2 checker burgers fries and medium drink. Hadn't been there for years but kind o liked their fries. In the old days the checkerburgers were decent. What I got was more like Whitecastle and the most scientifically precise shaved thin patty. Some mean feat of science. Must have been laser cut. The fries container was about the diameter of a napkin ring. Was absolutely stunning. Never going again.
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  33. Also, some of those construction contracts were signed 8 to 10 months ago and are now closing
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  34. Some of the cheerleaders are pulling back the line of scrimmage to now conclude that properties are not going down, but are moving sideways. Therefore no hazard in jumping into your dream home without worry of losing equity. Quite a bit of word art being woven in.
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  35. Yes, but the balance is made by the 800k value of the lot.
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  36. Will be interesting to see if listing loads start to rise. If so, investors will pull back.
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  37. Let's not forget about higher insurance rates given the higher replacement cost that has evolved in last couple years. Tax and insurance is the 1-2 punch for those already underwater or struggling.
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  38. Imagine if real estate tanks and takes the economy down again. Downtown commercial vacancies go way up and commercial districts go into blight. Seattle/Portland vibe will spread to many other big cities. Perhaps social issues will become much less important. Recessions do that.
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  39. If you bought 3 years ago then yes, good cushion. How many bought in the last 18 months? No such cushion for many people.
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  40. Good luck with the refinance deal if values should drop. Great to bring up the refinance hazards and hope viewers will recognize the Captain Obvious moment. Glad you are helping people to understand the hazards.
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  41. Another 3 months and the YOY will be compared to last June and everybody will wonder how this read can be so high. Strange so many do not understand very basic math. Will be large if prices stay stable for next 3 months. If there are price reductions between now and then the negative YOY will be much larger. Not a difficult concept to grasp. Will hit mainstream media pretty hard and may trigger sentiment change but remains to be seen.
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  42. Reventure had an interesting video several weeks back and he showed data that I have suspected but never researched to confirm. Specifically what happens when sentiment is lost and previous cash investor sell off. He showed that rates dropped after the last downturn began but did not reverse the downturn. When the knife starts falling, interest makes little difference since no one wants to buy a depreciating asset.
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  43. Imagine if genuine unemployment increases occur. There appears to be a rapidly tightening noose out there. Really feel for the young folks starting out. Have a son who is starting grad school in July. Finance major. I hope he will be able to consider home ownership at a reasonable young age. A big downturn will be the only salvation for a whole genetation of young people.
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  44. Can't really blame skeptics, they are not seeing drastic price drops or other indicators in many cases. Those of us in real estate professions lean to see the storm clouds before they arrive. Sometimes they don't arrive quickly. Those of us in the game since before 2005 have seen in in stunning detail what can come when the storm gets here. I really don't blame those on either side for their predictions. Those of us who have been there are trying to warn and are showing the trend changes that are occurring now, that portend the possible coming storm. No one can really say for sure. What is for sure, is having been through the last 2 of these (1988-1992 savings and loan crisis then the GFC in 2008-2012), current changes get your attention and bring back feelings from the past. No doubt about it.
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  45. Great as always Orlando. It's when things regress that you become amazed by the lack of sense out there. Funny thing is, this pattern just repeats over and over.
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  46. Fully concur with the comments below. The most recent historical perspective obviously was the 2007-2012 period and the downturn was protracted over several years. Beware the falling knife once and if a downturn commences. Always a dead cat bounce upon the first drop. This is a bull trap and occured around 2008 last time. Nothing in real estate occurs rapidly. Its more like a slow motion train wreck and takes time for capitulation to fully take hold.
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  47. Quite possible they are comparing the late stage of the downturn in the previous cycle with now which is the very early stage of a downturn. Not an apples to apples comparison. To be more accurate they should compare conditions now to late 2005 or so.
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  48. To buy at the court house steps, figuratively speaking of course, better have lots of assumptions for repairs in your bid. Also best be aware if the foreclosing property is a second position holder or other liens. Back to 06 or early 07, early foreclosures sold at very high prices. Falling knife just like buying at open market too early in the downturn. Yes, concrete in toilets and sinks occurred as well as removed appliances, stolen condensers, well pumps, removed granite tops, boxing matches with drywall, and other sabotages were common and repairs can be xexpensive. Be careful
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  49. In MLS records, I do see a fair amount of sold properties that sold at losses which were Opendoor sales.
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  50. If sellers are freaking out now. Just wait. Depends upon sentiment and thus the direction of the FOMO. Technical data is fine and good to follow, but capitulation is the ultimate turning point and cannot realistically be quantified. Only time will tell. This cannot be accurately be predicted, but we know it when it gets here.
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  51. The real eye opener is how early we are in the process. About 6 months past peak. Approximate bottom in last downturn was, location dependent, 2011, about 5 years past the peak.
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  52. Arent you glad you extended that lease? You may feel empowered by the time it expires. Regards. Jeff
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  53. Will go electric once charging stations are on every exit when traveling, prices come way down, and charging times at service stations are comparable to gasing up and when battery replacement costs are 2 to 3 K, not 15 to 20k like it is now. Things to think about if you are considering. Forget chasing a ,novelty. Just my opinion of course.
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  54. When you buy into any kind of association you need to know all the rules and obligations. They can be numerous.
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  55. I provide services to large home builders in house financing. For new construction, you have it backward. Lower levels of homes being build is due to lowered demand. This is why many builders are lowering prices. In most large developments, the contracts are written prior to commencement of construction. Therefore construction levels are a result of demand.
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  56. He's not lying about the last bubble purchasing at 270 going to short selling at 60 to 70. Was thoroughly involved in distressed properties during that time. Some had developed a lot of damage and deferred maintenance which contributed, but the downward direction was for certain there in SW Florida. In the time prior, many believed that downturns would not occur due to influx of retiring baby boomers. Now its millenials that will save the day. Remains to be seen, but familiar logic.
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  57. Usually there is a walkthrough immediately before closing where remaining punch items or areas that need rework. Often these items are remedied post closing when buyers want to get on with things.
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  58. Why dont you just say "price declining" I think that is better than "crash" or "negativity equity". Seems most straight to the point. It's all meaningful however. Some places will not see this for awhile however.
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  59. Yes, things changing, but as far as making an actual buying decision, makes no sense to jump in now. If downward forces take affect, a year from now, these reduced prices will seem very high. Despite many suggesting it is "different this time", it sure seems pretty similar to 2006 or 7.
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  60. Resale of the houses in progressing developments may still have the advantage of quick move in, but eventually price is price. Feel sympathetic for new construction buyers who contracted around peak and closed.
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  61. Hey Travis. You might want to take an updated look at DOMs. I do numerous 1004MC reports which is a document which establishes market condition over 3 time periods. They are 0 to 3 months, 4 to 6 months and 7 to 12 months. This is a local analysis, not national. Almost universally, I am seeing a substantial increase in both contract and closing median DOMs in our area regardless of median price data which is variable. DOMs is a pretty good indicator for future and present demand. Many MLS systems now have a 1004MC output feature, but is not well known. Regards.
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  62. This sounds like something from the next sequel of the purge. Glad I raised my son in a place where drug use is NOT encouraged. Saw enough of it back in my youth but nothing like today. Makes the whole 60's hippie movement look like a clean living festival.
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  63. Will be interested to see if the SVB and possibly Republic Bank problem might alter the course. I hope not but there could be some tremors coming out next week.
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  64. Never know, but not sure I would be betting on that logic. There is a natural recency bias in human nature. By that, I mean that what has happened recently is expected to continue. Very often because one may not want to consider the possibility that a change may occur. Have been through 2 downcycles. They do not announce themselves in advance and happen against broader logic and belief. Last time, it was "I think appreciation will moderate but wont see prices go down" or "retiring baby boomers will support continued growth in pricing (here in Floria). Many other logical explanations on why prices wont go down. We all know what did indeed happen. Future? Uncertain. However cycles have been happening for a long time and there is no reason to believe that we are not in a cycle at present. One common feature of the last 2 is the most rapid price increase rate occurred immediately before the downturn. In our area is 20% and 25%in 2004 and 2005. Then curve started to flatten then turn down. Will see what happens this time. No crystal ball, just a bunch of familiar smelling ingredients in the stew.
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  65. I wonder what could incentivize any officers to go work for the force in Seattle. That sounds like a tall order . They would need a big budget and a committment to shield them from liability. Yes, have their backs and let them crack down on crime for real
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  66. For all the MLS searches I am doing, I am definitely seeing a rising proportion of active listing to pendings. This a definite evolving trend in Sarasota Manatee county area. Naturally this corresponds to rise in the monthly housing supply metric. I do not recall seeing this at same time last year. Also many "flips" for break even which means loss after closing costs. I do not think that this is a blip. Also DOMs appear to be rising on average.
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  67. The in migration is nothing new here, although has accelerated in recent years. In 2005 a widespread belief was that migrating retiring baby boomers would save the real estate market, yet we crashed as hard as anywhere. The big change I have seen here is driving style. A rash of people who now ride your tail is very annoying. I spoke with a cop about this and he acknowledged that this was due to migration of people in. I have seen the downturn during the S&L crisis years as well and the 2005 to 2010 years. Seems to be history repeating but time will tell. I am involved in real estate services and am also preparing for providing services in a downturn. Learned very much in the GFC years.
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  68. Glad to see that Steve is OK. He was really at ground zero
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  69. Keep in mind, the temporary reduction in interest rate from the buy down represents payments that are nearly all interest and very little goes toward principal. Therefore the yield during that period is still extraordinarily high for the lender. Many people do not understand how mortgage payments in early years are structured between interest and principal. Would shock if people understood.
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  70. Let's all extend our well wishes and prayers to Steve Daria. He is down in Ft Myers and the eye of Hurricane Ian is landing there right now. I am about 70 miles north and it's pretty scary here and he will be experiencing 130 to 140 MPH winds. Of course he may have evacuated. Don't know, but his area will have major damage and destruction. Some things more important than discussing RE. RE will look much different in his area come tomorrow.
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  71. One more consideration is that large builders will renegotiate rates paid to subcontractors. Subs are under same supply/demand factors although they have labor costs for the workers they employ. Like water, all these cost factors find their own level. Subs were very hard to find a year ago and extended periods were experienced to get certain services completed. No doubt that has loosened as well as assumed supply of materials. Pool cages and shower glass were a major delay in our area for quite awhile. A conversation I had with a building super recently, revealed that these are no longer a factor. A word of caution for people considering buying in a recent initiated large development is: if the builder pulls out or files for C11, the existing owners may be responsible for the fees that HOAs pay for. This can result in few homeowners on the hook for maintenance of the common areas. Probably best to thoroughly familiarize with these issues in the development prior to contracting.
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  72. Saw on CNBC today, that avg 30yr fixed has surpassed 6%
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  73. Seems hard to imagine. Do you think they are trying to kill off the addicts? I cant think of any other reason. Just insane. Seattle or Portland next? Cant imagine what the parents would think if thier kids are the addicts. Unimaginable and sad.
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  74. This is squarely in your field of expertise. Do you think this represents "loosening" standards and rising chances of future defaults?
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  75. All your points true. Add car purchase/payments to the short side of the lever and you have perfect storm. Was involved in asset disposition services during the S and L crisis days. Made predicting the 2007-8 easy. Many same ingredients here today and probably overdue. Why is this easy to predict? Because human nature is consistent.
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  76. And remember, in a mortgage loan, the early payments are almost entirely interest and virtually 0 goes to principal.
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  77.  @hvaball150  yes, and more keys get turned in if value and equity drop.
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  78. Would be interesting to find articles to share from 2005 to see what predictions were being forwarded. I remember a few, slow down will be mild, price appreciation will level but prices wont go down, retiring baby boomers will buffer effects and prevent downturn, etc, etc. Truth is that when things change they become less predictable and wind up going direction that few saw ahead. Repeat? I think the uncertainty is so. Beyond that, the river goes where it will.
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  79. Fear and Loathing in Seattle.
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  80. When early YOY references start to show negative, they will fall back the Case Shiller which lags 2 months from closing which means about 3 months from contract date and hence when the agreement in price was made. Once CS shows negative, the narrative will shift and masses will take notice. Until then, people will be fed Soma.
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  81. Resellers will have a difficult time competing with this if they bought in last couple years. This will begin a process in motion.
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  82. Think what those YOY figures will show in 6 to 8 months from now when the price will be compared to about March of 2022. Case Schiller may show quite different 12 month results compared to what it shows now.
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  83. Banks make their money on loan origination fees typically. There typically is a larger buyer for the loan. The money gets recycled over and over for more fees from the same dollar.
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  84. In our area builders have started to court realtors. Builders sell for profit and traditionally had relatively narrow profit margins. Most planned developments have model homes and on site agents. They also have their own ad budgets and campaigns. Therefore, unlike an individual home seller, they have planned marketing on their own and a whole self initiated program. They have not needed outside real estate agents. I have reviewed about 1500 builders contracts. If an outside agent brings a buyer in, there typically is an agent agreement where the outside agent registers the name of the potential buyer. When new construction demand slows, then builders reach out to the realtor community. To pay an outside agent, the margin narrows. Therefore there is resistance.
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  85. Will fire/EMS respond without police stabilization when gunfire or other violence has occured on scene? Think about that one. The effects snowball.
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  86. In fairness, would need to see if there was a major renovation in that 1.4m house after the 800k purchase. But yes, I absolutely would recommend to wait. History is a pretty good teacher.
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  87. Nothing odd about that. Their was a long plateau before the protracted downturn occurred and was accelerated once short sales and foreclosures hit the market. Sentiment has to change and that is not an immediate process.
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  88. Not really familiar with the Miami market, but many of those flips in my area include a significant renovation. Was that the case with with the You Tuber's property? The gain may not be as high % as it appears. Renovation costs can be quite substantial. Great work as always
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  89. Saw video recently from the German in Venice. He documented the scene in Venice Beach. Was there Summer before last. Incredible vibrant place. Couldn't believe this guys video. Cant even imagine going back. Tent city. No one doing anything about it. Dont see a solution to this. Few remaining businesses will probably leave soon. Sad.
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  90. Wow. They have that much finished, unsold inventory. That's crazy. Big upfront investment. Here in Florida they usually build after contracting or contracting begins around 50% completion. No doubt, there will be downward pressure there in Austin if those are unsold. Maybe happening in other cities.
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  91. Citrus has been highly affected by Citrus Greening disease.
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  92. Consider this. Price reported for new contracts are NOT the contract price. They are the list price at time of contract. Actual contract price can be much less. Need to see price reported at closing.
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  93. Keep in mind in Florida, and probably elsewhere, we have many different martkets. In our county alone we have many different types of desirability. Each has different rates of appreciation, new listings/inventory, rate of sales, etc. Just with respect to waterfront we have gulf front, bay front, canal fronts, rivers and /creeks, lakes etc. Within those, boating potential can significantly affect demand and pricing. Additionally we have many golfing communities as well as numerous large scale gated, deed restricted communities in very large master developments. Within 30 minutes you can get from waterfront island properties to rural horse ranches. Condo, single family, duplexes etc. Each have different appeal and market dynamics. There seems to be no consistent. I am in SW Florida and Michael is correct in his description. One thing not quite described my Michael is with respect to inventory. In these large new developments is that inventory is not restricted to completed homes. Each vacant lot is inventory in that they are immediately available for construction contract and hence can be negotiated in the event that demand drops, Its up to the builders to determine if they want to negotiate terms. He is right about the insurance issue. Much more to say but would be too long.
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  94. Almost 15%. Holly cow. As for your past decisions, don't refer to them as bad decisions. Given the market at the time, it was not a bad decision. You would have needed a crystal ball to see the future. I would describe as unfortunate but judgement was likely sound. If you repeated in recent time, given your past experience, that would be a bad decision. In my little neck of woods here in SW Fl., I am seeing my orders go from consistent 10 to at per week get reduced to 2 to 3 just over past few weeks. Not just seasonal since past summer was quite busy. Mostly services to new construction. Also seeing broadcast RFPs from numerous sources has nearly disappeared from about 20 or per week. No conclusions just yet, but preparing shift to distressed property services which should emerge in upcoming months. Seen this dance before. Evolve or go extinct. Not sure about trend reversal in event of Fed pivot. Would not bet on it. Regards.
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  95. Absolutely fantastic news. Really great to hear Constatine confirm that EF plans for separation are NOT viewed as conflict. This is huge! Yes, it is a game changer along with uranium capture. Glad to be invested.
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  96. Could surpass this figure. Would not be that anxious to get in early. Falling knife can travel a long way and pop of rental bubble could put you into negative cash flow, despite the potential "good deal" you get. History is good teacher and those through the last one have some tales to tell.
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  97. Hey Travis. You find this hard to believe, but I have been seeing that recent built resales tend to sell for higher than new builds of the same model. All I can assume is that the move in ready nature and uncertainty about future rates have an impact. Might also explain why some builders have increased spec home builds .
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  98. Foreclosure activity should pick up which will lead to increased inventory. That particular inventory is held by motivated sellers. That needs to be factored into anyone's prediction for future outlook. Cash buyers will likely predominate at lowered price since the higher rates will exclude those needing financing
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  99. A current low interest rate on someone's mortgage is one thing. A falling knife is another.
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  100. For those of us who were through last real estate downturn as well as the S&L crisis in late 80s can attest to fact that torpedoes can strike without forewarning. Mood today quite similar to 2005. No crystal ball but you know what happens after bulb burns brightest. In 2005 there was no indication of any future disruption. From one appraiser to another. Regards.
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  101. They have a big problem in China with energy issues as well LNG prices off the chart and coal availability is shrinking.
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  102. History has an echo. The "reduced appreciation but no price decline" was a very persistent mantra in 2005. Same as in last year. Saw the similar wreakage in late 80s. Led to complete destruction of the Savings and Loan industry which was the largest source of mortgages previously.
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  103. Anyone should watch the documentary "Meltdown" on youtube to see how complex and international the GFC was. Yes, ill advised lending was part, but so much more to it including what happened in Greece, Iceland, Britian and other places especially with the collapse of the many types of derivatives that were traded in financial markets by the big banks. Included, but much more complex, than what was portrayed in The Big Short.
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  104. Way too many new obscure sports now. Coed relays? Men participating in womens events? If they dont like their country, they should not go. Wouldn't that be the biggest show of protest. I would respect them more if they did it that away
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  105. Another thing to consider is that a price reduction may be the result of the builder specing in less options and updates. Typically in a new home development, the same floorplan can have many different prices depending upon the options built in to unit. In higher end developments, the differences can be extreme. Therefore you must be careful. For a long time there have been buyer incentives. These are rebates based upon the magnitude of the options specified. This is nothing new and not related to market conditions. When conditions truly slow, as in the GFC years, the resales from private individuals fell below the current cost of construction. Therefore it was better to buy a 2 to 3 year old resale then to contract for a new build for same model in same development. In those years, the builders had often quit building new builds and left the development. Most large builders do not continue new starts when no longer profitable and most do not build a bunch of spec homes. One builder I work with does begin a,bunch of new starts, then begins marketing at about 60% completion. This has been done to buffer the impact of rising materials and labor costs and price rises have been implemented prior to marketing to offset cost increases that occur during construction. There is much more to the equation than one might guess.
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  106. Large developments often have bond debt for infrastructure and land development. In our area the payments are included on property tax on each lot. These bond payments can be several thousands of dollars as special assessments. The builder has to pay these for every lot they own. Therefore there is some degree of motivation to build out and sell for somewhat less. There may also be obligations to build out developments. For sure, they also need to build out recreational facilities, pools, clubhouses etc. The machine may not be able to be stopped once started.
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  107. A great reset would indeed be painful in the short term but a salvation for the younger generation who are very challenged for economic life in general but especially for any hope of home ownership or affordable rent. Things are way out of proportion. A reversion to the mean is long over due but over history has seen to be true. If you are diligent, you will be preparing now for future events. I am for sure. History is a great teacher.
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  108. Downside of rising values is the rise in taxes and insurance. Can be burden. For homestead, Florida has Save Our Homes Act and tax exemption probability, but does not apply to other properties and not in the owners control. Since tax assessments are figured by mass appraisal algorithm once per year, the higher tax rate can persist even in rapidly falling market. The roll back rate used to insure that municipal budgets are met can result in stable tax bills even if assessments drop, which can take owners quote by surprise. These are some of the I'll feeling side affects springing from a big real estate run up.
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  109. Good luck with trip. You may see a carbon copy in the new developments in those towns as in Texas. Would help to find someone in those towns with local MLS access to do the best searches for data.
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  110. Orlando: so tristed and so beautiful. A 2% followed by 1% discount during the early stage of a mortgage where the vast majority of mortgage payments are applied to interest and very little to principal. The thing most do not know. Keep on trucking my friend. There will be an economic revolution before too long.
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  111. There needs to be a negative incentive to non paying renters which still protects those who are the most needy but disincetivizes those capable but are playing the system. How about an FHA lease insurance similar to the mortgage insurance system that protects lenders. Would be more effective than the current program.
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  112. Looks like an Ylang Ylang tree. It the flower Chanel #5 is made from. Grows in tropical climates.
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  113. Imagine what will happen if real estate/construction gets destroyed and/if unemployment really increases. The only silver lining is that demand for many things will cease and prices will reset. My local office supply place is a ghost town inside.
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  114. Some more clever builders are already shifting to markets. Being active for services in many new home developments, I review the sales contract for each property that I provide service for. One place I see where large builders have an advantage is that they typically also can offer title work and home owners insurance. Most contracts I review have disclosures that buyers sign to allow quote for these services. The big ones also typically have in house financing available. With these profit centers, they can often drop prices to market and still remain profitable, often offering pricing well below comparable proximate resales.
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  115. Wait until Case Schiller YOY starts showing negative. Will Crest low next June. Most don't understand how it works. Sentiment will change rapidly since every month when it publishes, the negative YOY figures will accelerate. Will be WTF moments.
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  116. Insurance premium increases could be partially offset if construction costs go out and result in lowered replacement cost. If this happens the contract your agent and have a new replacement cost estimate. If still high, can be contested by getting an estimate from a builder or construction estimator. In a homeowner's policy, there is an assumption that personal property has a value of 50% of the structure value. This may be true in some cases, but would guess it is not true in most. The base rate for personal property coverage tends to be higher than that for the structure which exasperated total premium changed. Talk to your agent to determine what cranks can be turned to minimize premiums. I have done this many times and its easier than you might guess. Lender may call the shots however so would need to check with them as well. Sometimes HOAs can also specify.
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  117. Last I looked, the government backed NFIP only covered residential structures to 250k and had somewhat limited things covered. Overage would need to covered by very expensive private insurance. No NFIP in COBRA zones. Buyers need to be aware before offering on property.
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  118. Hey Todd: Although it lags, the new Case Shiller data should be out today. Should start to see more flattening of YOY median. Not sure why the national YOY is referenced so widely, but it can create sentiment change, especially if it goes negative. The December read already showed negative in the 1 and 3 month periods. As we get closer to the June to June YOY read, which will be published in August, the negative numbers should increase. While job data and other related data points are important, sentiment will rule all others and spreads fear. Also, atleast in my area, NAR/MLS data does not really indicate new construction accurately. Many builders dont list new home offerings on MLS to a large extent, and this is where price cuts are most prevalent.
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  119. Will be interesting to see how, and to what magnitude, the effect will be on regular resale properties.
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  120. The WH damage control. Otherwise known as the Potomac 2 step. Will not avoid panic from those who would panic. I do agree with them in doing things to minimize panic, but this is not the way. A change in policy would probably be much more constructive.
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  121. Is she out of her mind! Real estate is clearly on a downward price trend and well published by many indices.
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  122. Kind of a general statement but saw for sure in 2005-6 period and saw effects when I entered RE services in 1988. The statement is" bulb burns brightest right before it burns out"
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  123. Data is data until the run for the exits commences. Seen this dance before. Yes, willing buyers, especially if cash, will gain significant leverage and will apply it.
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  124. Keyword indeed is "yet". Holding costs mount with time until reality sets in.
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  125. Strongly recommend the Frontline documentary: Money, Power, and Wallstreet to see a VERY detailed account of that whole period. Starts with the young JP Mogan execs who conceptualized the credit default swabs following the Exxon Valdiz tanker wreck and how they evolved in insuring CDO's on mortgage bonds. Covers how it wrecked the economy when foreclosures started as well as the loans and real estate downturn. Will certainly make you draw comparisons to scattered events evolving today. It's long and time consuming, 4- 1 hour episodes but well worth a look to educate yourself. Different torpedoes then but many parallels.
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  126. Thanks for the lending lesson. Very inrormative.
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  127. Given the cost of housing. More occupancy arrangements will evolve. There will be fallout once disagreements or in house tensions rise, but ultimately, people will do what they have to in order to maintain a lifestyle.
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  128. Good luck on the hunt. Yes, here in Florida we are not quite seeing this but when I do market conditions addenda for clients, I am seeing a bit more green in the MLS results. Green in this case means active listings. Still seeing more pendings than actives, but the trends is slowly changing. May take longer than other regions, but will most likely get here. Will be time to activate my "bad economy" services since my normal services will fall off the cliff.
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  129. Many are facing foreclosure due to borrowing up against equity. Saw many people who were effected back in the 2007+ period even though they had owned their house for 20+ years. Borrowing can do that especially once values drop and equity goes negative
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  130. Just chiming in. One things that may be instructive, and you briefly touched on in recent video, is the proportion of a recent mortgage that goes to interest. Most don't know that there early years payments are dominantly interest with very little going to pay down principal. I would say that this is the most misunderstood area in real estate with potential buyers.
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  131. Would be instructive to see how the stats today compares to late 2005 or early 06. 07 in some areas. Human nature seems consistent. Remember increase in inventory and price drops followed by a bump in sales to those perceiving value. This was followed by the drop in sales and prices that was protracted. In securities some refer to a dead cat bounce which may be parallel. The press was blamed for spreading pessimism. This will be multiplied due to instant news cycle and social media. Hope we avoid a repeat. Too early to tell, but many of same ingredients in play. No two are ever the same.
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  132. People that that guy want to compare 2022 to 2008 and say it's not the same. Given we are in early phase, it is really closer to 2006, not 2008. In 2006, there had not been significant downturn. That came later. Bottom in my area was more like 2010 to 2011. If this was purely seasonal then why is it not compared to last time at this year. That I can recall, last year at this time, appreciation was in full roar.
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  133. How will you refi if the value has declined below your current loan balance? Will need to provide cash.
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  134. I remember a show from the height of the last downturn. They had people bidding on foreclosures and their experiences in what the got on the inside once closed. I think it was set in the Phoenix area. Those kind of shows will be back.
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  135. The oil embargo is now happening from within. When exploration is discouraged, supply is soon to follow. Wells dry up and there goes your supply. Finance for exploration is crucial. That is being discouraged domestically. Same for LNG in Europe. Heat or eat is the new mantra in Europe. A cold winter may change opinions.
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  136. when the economy tightens up these decisions will come back to haunt. Those positions available will have applicants screened carefully and chain of employment will be a tell tail sign.
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  137. Would employ the Gretsky approach and stop looking where the puck is now, but focus on where the puck going to be.
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  138. Flood risk happens in waterfront or proximate areas which tend to be higher desirable areas. No contradiction with that.
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  139. He is partially right in his recession definition but he is looking at where the puck is and not where it may head.
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  140. If current prices are a severe burden, what do you call 6 to 7% higher than burdensome? Even 3 to 5% higher results in an extreme burden and nothing to celebrate and will result in major shifts in spending habits. While few seem to acknowledge, prices need to REDUCE significantly, especially if unemployment increases. I will give Biden one point, this fact is that the observed inflation is not uniquely American and is occurring internationally and the logical end point is a widespread downturn and international recession. Not sure how the Fed can cure a worldwide occurance.
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  141. Do a historic search on MLS to see how long it took in the 2007-8 drop to see how long it took to drop the same%. That will give one guide. Alternatively, see what % reduction was realized when bottom hit, apply the same % drop to recent highs today, then let this guide you to an expected price per SF. However remember the property price is the combination of land value and structure value. They don't necessarily go down at same rate.
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  142. Laughing off the haters is the BEST approach. Keep rockin. Wonder if they will still be chirpin in 6 months. I have seen this dance twice before and would not bet against history.
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  143. What is the market cap comparison? That would be more meaningful.
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  144. If you are early buyer in new development, make sure builder agrees to buy new tires. I am active in new home developments 5 to 7 per week. Nails and screws in tires is a way of life. Have had to have many tires fixed or replaced.
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  145. In some cases, there is gouging going on. Here Publix has been caught. Go shop at Aldi and you will see pretty quick. Eggs for half the price at Walmart which itself has gotten into the gouging game. It will take buyers moderating their habits to force the issue. Crises give license to this, especially when the narrative paves the way. The small businesses do have genuine difficulties, but there are certainly plenty examples of opportunism. The customers will ultimately determine the future.
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  146. Will need some capitulation before seeing wider spread price drops. There has to be pain in holding cost combined with lost confidence and belief in the "seasonal" narrative. Then the run for the exits occurs.
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  147. Finally someone speaking sense. I have been in RE services for over 25 years and the facts in this video are correct. Saw same in the GFC but also the S&L crisis years. Was same story then. About 1987 to 1992. Many banks and S&Ls failed and were liquidated. Younger folks not generally aware of this. GFC was a carbon copy but larger in wreakage. To say different this time is naive. They were saying same in 2004 to 2005 that repeat of S&L scenario would not happen again since "this time is different" also the theory of "things might level but not drop" was widespread in the 04 to 05 period. Heard that recently? I have from many folks. No telling what will happen again, but history seems to be lining up again.
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  148. Sound like 05 to 06 period? Was there during S&L crisis and GFC. Appraised many short sales and foreclosures here in Florida last go around. Saw 65K short sales on properties bought for 200K 2 years prior. Smell is same now as 2005 and 1986. Greenspan called it "Froth" last time. Dodd-Frank to prevent? What happened with FIRREA? Optimism similar to 2005 at present? Same investment and flipping shows on TV and investment systems etc? Questions to be asked. Answers?
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  149. Steve in Ft Myers still has not surfaced. Hopefully not a bad sign. Same for all down there.
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  150. Julian missed one thing about tax on lots and the levage. In new developments there are often bond debt payments which are special assessments and not ad valorum. In Florida these are called CDD fees (community development district). The bonds were issued to pay for the costs of development, infrastructure, etc to get the project ready to have finished lots ready for marketing and onstruction. Even if there are token value assessments for the lots, the CDDs can be several thousands of dollars for each lot regardless of whether vacant or improved. Multiply this by hundreds of lots, you will see that this can lever against the builder. In some cases, the builder will not pay the tax and allow tax certs to be issued which are satisfied upon sale. These accrue interest during the time the taxes are unpaid.
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  151. The legislative measures you describe are really not bad in principal. There were similar in the 06 to 2010 period. The market eventually took care of itself. Perhaps it just an indication of where we are on the curve. Not draconian like what blue states are doing. Will be interesting to see if Floida shift to negative net migration like what happened in last go around. Seems unlikely, but was also incomprehensible in last go around. As far as encouraging developers to build low cost housing, the cost of construction makes this unlikley to be offset by tax credits.
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  152. No question you will see those Case Schiller 12 month figures change radically in next several months. References data that is about 3 months old and compares to 12 months previous. Already dropped from about 21% to most recent read of 15 handle in past 4 reads. This is for the nationwide figure. If it did not lag, the figure would likely lower for the current read. In another 6 months reads, we could see negative. Then CNBC and other mainstream media will be reporting and confidence will really shift.
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  153. Hey Michael. How do you think the new Citizens insolvency danger announcement may affect sentiment to housing?
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  154. Despite the "different this time" narrative, it is amazing how similar the chain of events is unfolding.
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  155. Trends change. Rentals have been big trend in last several years. Largely because of lost credit following short sales and foreclosures in last debacle then later short term Airbnb's. Although slow to change, increases in apartment complexes and SFR rentals will lead to excess inventories. Job losses in event of recession will put downward pressure. Prices per cap rate multiples will be felt in resale prices for previously rented properties. Stay tuned.
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  156. I hear what you are saying about inventory, but all those who were through 2005-6 remember what happened next. There was no real downward forecast during that time as well. Torpedoes hit without warning. No crystal ball but keeping an ear to the rail. From one appraiser to another. Regards.
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  157. Under save our homes, assessment has go be reduced when market value decreases. However the roll up provision allows for increase of millage in order to make the budget. Ultimately, taxes are indexed to municipal budgets and not to property values. During the last big downturn many were infuriated when their taxes did not reduce proportionate to the market value drops. Since municipalities tend to spend a lot of money during boom times I imagine that the same will occur if another big recession hits. You are correct in that many people do not know how this works.
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  158. The cure for high prices is high prices. Takes some time however. History has shown this in past and may in future. Can't bet on anything, but trajectory is changing. Big question is what is future trajectory? It's not about what assets you buy but the timing under which you own them. Therefore look at history, see where we are on the cycle, and see how others capitalized in the past.
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  159. This will begin to effect resales in order to remain competitive. Builders can maintain margins for a time due to reductions in materials costs and by squeezing subs. Also most large builders have in house lending, in house insurance and title companies and can reduce site premiums and include options which are higher margin. They can offer better prices and not really affect profitability to a large extent if those services are selected. To their downside are bond debt payments which are frequently paid in property taxes. In our area they are referred to as CDD special assessments. Upon title to buyer, the buyer pays the CDDs by virtue of property tax. Yrs, the contracts can be 100 pages or more but most of it is disclosures, energy efficiency statements etc. The actual purchase agreement part is about 5 pages, but the buyer has to initial on many of the disclosures. Many of the pages are related to change orders which results when the buyers opt for additional features or options. I have reviewed around 2000 of these contracts from various builders and although each is unique, they tend to have similar structures and language. Not as complicated as you might guess, but as always, any potential buyer should go carefully over everything. And yes, they are not the standard contracts approved by realtor associations usually in combination with state bar associations.
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  160. I hope, with the timing considered, that you realize that renewing your lease was the right decision. Good work. Also, maybe delay your buying decision might best be put back a bit. Should be worth the wait. 15% downward may wind up being a falling knife. Best of luck with that.
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  161. If you are buying an 80 year old home, you should have inspections from engineers and by the individual trades. I.e. electrical, roofers, plumbers etc. It is out of league for most general purpose home inspectors.
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  162. Assessment changes are generally done by a computer model. The process is call mass appraisal. In some jurisdictions this is done on an exact day of the year. Usually only part of the total bill is advalorum. The rest are fixed fees due to special assessments or other arrangements. The actual rate can change if there is a shortfall of revenues for the local governmental budgets. Yes, that means that if assessments go down, the rate for the advalorum portion can be raised in order to generate sufficient revenue. In Florida, this is known as the roll back rate. If curious in your area, call your tax collectors office.
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  163. Also keep in mind that Federal NFIP flood insurance has relatively low coverage on structures. Haven't checked recently but limit used to be 250k and items covered is not a comprehensive as typical home owners policies.
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  164. Those who insist on remote work in defiance of the company's mandate may very well be higher on the layoff list if/when the big downturn occurs. Not really great to be biting the hand that feeds you. Can bet derivatives on mortgages and other instruments are being issued, subprime or not. Strongly recommend watching the PBS Frontline documentary series "Money, Power & Wallstreet. Is a very detailed account of the economic and political events from 2004 to 2008 which culminated in the GFC. Was much more than just unwise domestic mortgage lending. Had influences outside USA borders and derivatives collapsed rapidly. Mortgages obviously were part and possibly the trigger. Can watch that documentary on YouTube. Very enlightening.
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  165. Not sure why using MLS as an absolute measure of activity. MLS is an optional marketing vehicle. FSBO resales are also not included. One area of confusion is that the term"sold" with builders would equate to pending in MLS. There is no requirement for anyone to list in MLS. In most counties you can do a deed search on websites to see actual closed sales. This would be a much more accurate indication of market activity. Some builders do not list at all in MLS.
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  166. Just had to reference to new Case Schiller 12 month national index. Reports 11.9% or so increase. That's about 5 straight monthly declines. Of course some will confuse this with an appreciating market, but this index is widely referenced without understanding its lag time or true meaning in today's market.. Imagine the shock in a few months when it goes negative and then about next June or so when the YOY references against the May to June 2022 prices. This may really drive hysteria in the masses who don't know how to analyze it correctly. Complete reversal and will indicate very rapid depreciation rate even though the actual rate will not be as rapid. Mainstream media will definitely have some explaining to do.
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  167. Taxes in Florida for main residence protected by Saves Our Homes Act. Does not apply to second homes, land, or commercial property.
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  168. Metrics can and do affect sales. However, sentiment is the most powerful market influence. Do not think it's really there yet. I remember around 2005 when every property had a halo and looked to the public like a pot of gold. Fast forward to 2010, and every property was viewed as a bloody dagger. Fast forward to 2021 and H1 2022 and it was back to pot of gold with 2005 sentiment again. What's next? No crystal ball, but other than new higher rental rates, looks pretty similar. Forget metrics, human nature and emotion is the over riding influence. Not necessarily rational.
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  169. They only had 13 branches and 175B in deposits? Must have been a whole bunch of accounts with balances well above FDIC limits. Will be educational to see how this plays out. Everyone should be watching closely.
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  170. Glad to see "reimagining" is back. We missed it.
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  171. Not quite right. Most modern developments have numerous lots available for construction contract. You contract first, then they build it. Reductions in building are due to reduced demand. I work extensively in new construction and in my area that the dominant system. They build a small proportion of spec homes so some can contract throughout the process. However, the later the stage, the less the buyer can customize options and features. The main stream media does not report correctly on this. Go out to any new home development and talk to the builders agents to see for yourself.
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  172. Quite the pickle for remote workers.
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  173. Back in last similar point in cycle, approx late 2005, many here in SW Florida were in denial about the potential for a downturn. The most often heard reason was "retiring baby boomers will keep prices up" within 2 years, our area was amongst the hardest hit nationwide. Tread carefully.
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  174. Are those fully built houses or are they honoring those prices for construction contracts? Would imagine that are negotiating revised service rates from their subs.
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  175. I am too. Seeing lot lot of mid construction progress but not too many new lot clearings or foundation level stages. Demand for my services has dropped notably in last 2 weeks. Too early to draw conclusions but am noticing a change.
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  176. Couldn't agree more. Powell has been middle of road every step and human behavior tends to repeat. To his credit he does resist pressures to make big moves. I do think he should Volker and just git er done. Then let the chips fall where they will. Really depends when, and how much, pain is really felt. Keep up great work.
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  177. You might check your individual states. Rate increases are often regulated by state agencies. The premium paid is similar to property tax in that there is a rate multiplied by replacement cost to deterime the premium. The personal property portion of an HO policy has a different rate than structure and its value typically assumed to be 50% of the structure value which is excessive in most cases and can in some cases be negotiated. Lots of wheels can be turned in a policy if you are diligent.
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  178. I had same reaction to the CPI read. Market up? I guess the market is forward looking but not sure that view is justified. When real estate goes, all bets are off.
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  179. It is just amazing how the attitude toward real estate can change once capitulation occurs. Clearly remember the discussions in 09 through 12. Those who have not personally experienced this will be shocked when they see 300 DOMs, 6 figure price reductions, comments of "bring all offers" in listings etc. Doom porn? Some may suggest, but has happened in past. Feel sorry for those who have not experienced. Not there yet and no crystal ball, but human nature does have way of repeating.
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  180. If you are aware, the last downturn was not US centric as many believe. It does spread. Recommend watching the PBS documentary MELTDOWN. Lots of the problems were occurring in Iceland and the UK before it got here. We are not an island here. Future uncertain, but contagion certainly not impossible. Canada and Australia worse bubble than here. Especially big cities.
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  181. Great to see great time with dad. I miss my dad every day. Enjoy!
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  182. Love your videos but have to point one thing out. Not all HOAs have private road. If it is a gated development then it will have private roads but many are not gated and have public roads and hence road maintenance is performed by the municipality. Just a technicality and don't mean to seem nit picking but just mentioned for factual accuracy.
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  183. My son attended an investmentxseminar with me recently and we got to talk with a. Brokerage company exec. He is about to graduate with a finance degree so was asking employment questions. He wants to work in an office/team environment. The exec said he was rare and they are finding ot hard to hire for positions requiring office attendance. When economy really slows I think those with desire to be in office will have advantage. Those who bought houses far away from work with Hope's of being remote workers may face hard decisions as Michael said. They are easy layoff targets.
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  184. I am sure CNBC next real estate feature will explain off low pending sales as result of builders not putting up enough houses! What Travis is seeing is just a small sample of what is occurring from coast to coast. Yep, not enough homes being built😀. I just cringe when I hear them say that.
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  185. Can only speak for markets I am active in for my service, almost exclusively in new construction, but most builders here do NOT build inventory. A new start is initiated after a buyer is in contract for sale. Probably are some builders who build for investors but in my market area it is not the norm. These builders will start some but actively market them during construction. Too risky to incur the debt to complete first, then market.
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  186. Glad you are doing ok in Miami. I am in Sarasota county and we were original ground zero. Feel for Steve Daria since the eyewall is coming ashore in his area, Ft Myers, as I write this. It pretty intimidating here right now and his area might be seeing double the wind speed we are.
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  187. The 10% figure is correct via the December Case shiller but YOY is highly misleading. That does NOT mean that property is currently on that track. If fact the same CS data shows negative for the 1 month and 3mo periods. That data is more pertinent to today. Wonder what they will say when we reach YOY for June 2023 to June 2022. That is going to shock people
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  188. I am seeing locally that some builders are selling lots to other builders who then call build different models at lower price. Obstenibly this is done to not offend buyers who purchased the original units at higher prices and therefore attempt the buffer from value drop shock.
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  189. There was a sympathy news article back around 2007 or 8 about a guy who was being foreclosed after 25 years in house. Sad, yes, but the guy owed 270k and values had dropped. Obviously was aggressively using house as ATM. This is what gets revealed about human nature once drops occur. Not sure why this happens to ostensibly intelligent folks. Happened to many I knew.
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  190. Remember, the cost of construction in a,planned development also need to go to paying the debt involved with all the cost of developing the land, taxes infrastructure and all the things that must be done prior to building the 1st house. Often times this was paid for by a municipal bond and payments for such can be on property taxes. In Florida this is referred to as CDD fees. Once a house is sold then the new owner pays a small portion. Prior to that the builder is paying. This can a couple hundred lots in an early stage development. There is much more to the builders spread than just the spread on an individual house.
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  191. Here in Sarasota Brad area yes listing are increasing but additionally pending seem to be falling. Differences of course from neighborhood to neighborhood as well as price ranges but seeing this more and more commonly.
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  192. Someone leaning on Zillow? Stockholders and realtor customers?
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  193. True, but in my opinion this one has legs. Too many similarities to 2005. To ignore.
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  194. More than homestead tax exemptions, she was beneficiary of save our homes act which also pertains only to homestead. Perhaps that was what your referring to.
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  195. They should bring back Miami Vice and Michael would be the new "Crocket" resembles Don Johnson enough to be the son following in Sonny's footsteps. Those of us who remember that series would be all in. "Tale of The Goat" was my favorite episode with the bad guy "Legba"
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  196. Good thought, but factor in an allowance as a contingency in the event that rents may drop precipitously in the event unemployment rises. Current and increased future rental rates are not guaranteed.
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  197. Hey Travis. How do you see dedollarization affecting finance?
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  198. Typos below. Correction: went from 10 to 15 per week to 2 to 3 currently. RFPs gone from about 20 per week to non existant presently. All this just over past few weeks. Seems to be changing RAPIDLY.
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  199. Hey Travis. Was that true about suggesting moving to Austin? Should have known better. I am well acquainted with the look! Yes, move on to next topic. Also yes, media, even major media i.e. CNBC ETC, will turn. In fact they were blamed by many in last go around for negative sentiment. They hinge on the CS YOY national index and imply that this indicates current condition. I think they know better, but that's the narrative business. Will be WTF moment when they start reporting negative CS reports. It's just soooo obvious. Grab popcorn.
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  200. No one know for sure. But previous peaks had similar logical points on thier side. These were accompanied by downturns to the extent that major fin institution failed. Not only the most recent in 2007 to 11, but the previous on in 87 to 92 which took out most of the S&Ls. If not familiar with that one, might Google it. I was there first hand in an asset disposition capacity. History different this time? Who knows, time will tell, but many striking similarities at peak highs on the curve.
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  201. Obviously the conversion from cash to treasuries create big demand and hence bid bonds up in price and hence yields dropped.
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  202. Seen this dance before. In the past it has not ended well.
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  203. One thing touched on but I really think tells the story is DOMs. This helps clarify the picture when you have sales and inventory reduced. Am seeing DOMs increased in current 3 month period for nearly every 1004MC report I prepare regardless of the neighborhood or price trend.
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  204. If prices fall ala 2007 to 10, that proportion could climb.
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  205. It has been documented that kickbacks from Eukraune to politicians were made from previous rounds of funding. Some via FTX. Both parties likely involved and both houses.
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  206. Where is the car storage in Minneapolis supposed to be if they don't necessitate parking spaces? Is this guest parking they refer to? Townhouse designs with garages? Maybe I heard this wrong.
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  207. Cant quite tell from the photos, but some of those look like artists mockups. When that is the case, the houses may be under construction. As such, part of the reduction can be due to down spec-ing. On an interesting note, just found out that one very large builder just sold their remaining lots to another large builder so they can exit this development. This is a large, private, walled development in premium location with high values. Not sure why, but perhaps they don't want to sell for substantially lower prices and deal with the buyers of same models over past 2 years
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  208. Takes awhile for sentiment to change. Starts with denial then starts dropping a notch at a time and media to start reporting in widespread manner. Not a rapid process. At some point the fulcrum slides and fear sets in. Just think how long it took last time from shift to bottom. Early shift seems to be more rapid this time but under the radar but evident to those who follow markets closely.
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  209. Good stuff but way to many jump cuts. Just play whole sections of the interview without editing. It will make much easier to watch.
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  210. By foreclosure starts, are you referring to the filing of a Lis Pendens? That should probably be the right thing to start looking for to assess foreclosure potential changes.
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  211. Great detail as always Jaspreet. One more thing about real estate is just plain sentiment. When sweet taste turns sour it can turn sentiment, especially if prices are reducing and may persist even if Fed pivots. Rises and falls both have inertia. Regards.
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  212. An expression from equities investment applies."bulls walk up the steps and bears jump out the windows" remains to be seen but downturns cause big moves once entrenched.
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  213. Has received a bit since Monday. Typical that traders will pick up once big downturns level. Can be profitable doing this kind of trading.
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  214. Given that I am in the crosshairs of hurricane Ian, my thoughts turn to how a big strike in Tampa/St pete and surrounding areas may affect RE market in Florida moving forward. Could affect decisions of people contemplating moving to our state or those who moved here recently. Can definitely sour a previously sweet taste. Depends upon severity of damage I guess. Hope I can still write in come Thursday or so. Kind of tense right now here.
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  215. You bet. Even the ECB raised by .75 point recently.
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  216. Not sure if loans on real estate purchases have margin clauses as they do with securities, but good question. Perhaps Travis, being in the lending industry can comment. I would be interested to know as well.
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  217. Keep in mind too that after 60 days vacant, a HO policy will not cover. A replacement policy Carrie's a much higher premium. Therefore the leverage against the owner grows substantially.
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  218. Not sure but I think new Case Shiller will be out tomorrow. Yes, lags severly but is oft quoted in mainstream media. Be watching. Will be reflective of data from Nov-Dec. Yes, June 22 to Jun23 will be the big one for YOY but wont show in CS until this Sept.
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  219. Good having 3 jobs. I have 1 primary service related to new construction, but have a couple things on the drawing board intended for distressed properties. May take 6 months to a year before they become pertinent. Saw them work during the GFC. Learn from others.
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  220. You are a monster! Even working holidays. Dont burn yourself out brother. Easy to watch vids, much more difficult to create. I did RE promotional videos back in the day. Really time consuming with editing, some voice overs, cleanups in color temps etc. Was put out of that enterprise when $3 virtual tours showed up.
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  221. In re ent times in our area resales have commanded higher prices than a new build of the same model from a builder. This is presumably due to the 8 to 12 month delay for construction for the new Build. I have seen this repeatedly over the last 2 years in our area.
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  222. Be careful when walking around site and looking into camera. Lots of metal things that can get you including rebar, roofing nails, and other things. Best to be looking down or scout it before you record. You can learn the hard way about construction site hazards the hard way. Wear some thick sole boots to protect against nails. For you car nails and screws come to rest in gutters and can be in street. Have patched or replaced several tires from construction site incidents.
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  223. All those things combined with the potential for a general RE downturn. It's getting concerning.
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  224. See what silver prices did today. All assets tied together. Normally lower interest promotes PM prices, however at some point PMs become the safe haven. Silver topped out in 2011, the peak of the recession. Silver up .47 today after languishing for many months. Watch construction starts and new permits trends.
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  225. Yep, that's going to be one of the big catalyst but different in that you don't generally buy with borrowed money, although you can. But certainly when viewed against cap rates or cash on cash return, certainly applies.
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  226. You give regular doses of common sense. Surprising that other podcasts do not put in clear unequivocal terms. No crystal ball but possibilities and probabilities. Keep up great work. Subscribed.
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  227. snooker. Be interesting was the next few Case Schiller reports will be. A couple months behind but eventually will show what is happening.
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  228. Perhaps that was the "edge" they were promoting a while back for tourism purposes. Who wouldn't want to visit the place to see that!
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  229. Josh not being objective in his recommendation. Also, atleast in our area, a high proportion of our 1M+ sales are for cash. Either way, it may be wise to wait this out for awhile.
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  230. I think it was a good decision to renew the lease. Just look at those historic MLS records from 2006 then 2007 then 2008 etc in any given neighborhood you like to roughly gauge the occurrences during that time. I occasionally do that in some of our island areas. If you believe that history rhymes that might help to forecast your strategy. Best of luck. Dont catch the falling knife.
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  231. Not to mention when the institutional buyers start unloading before profits disappear or in many cases to minimize losses.
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  232. Remember Travis: vacant lots in new home developments can also be considered as inventory since they are immediately available for contract for new construction.
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  233. Noticed similar recently when just trying to see what current rates are. Every web site I clicked on had a mortgage application link. Gave me the same feeling Michael is describing.
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  234. It's not so much the actual numbers at this point, what's alarming is the change in direction and trend. No way to forecast actual future numbers. Real estate is a slow moving machine, but the change in slope is moving fairly quick. Yrs, if you have not experienced a downturn, you will not have reference or understand what can actually happen.
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  235. Am always amazed how Steve's thoughts are consistently same as my experiences. The fact he is in my neck of the woods is interesting as well.
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  236. Your firing on all cylinders in this one. Hope it's getting through. All those payments are with after tax dollars. That compounds the strain. Incomes slip a little and watch out. Noose tightening?
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  237. Be cautious. Early buyers market can be indicative of a falling knife that you do not want to catch. Lessons of post 2005 era is largely forgotton.
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  238. Flipping out over lack of offers in 2 to 3 days? Wow, we have hit a strange paradigm.
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  239. Depends upon their rental income returns. Would make no sense to sell in the face of 10 to 15% returns on original price plus renovations costs. Considering many of these properties were purchased years ago
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  240. Hey Orlando. I am in your corner on this but hard to predict as anything these days is. More turmoil and turbulence ahead most likely. Expect the unexpected.
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  241. I am in Sarasota County. Come down here and I will show you tour of what is going on, particularly new construction developments of which we many, many. Oh yes, we have shark fishing too!
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  242.  @Walymie  some of the cell phone calls I heard from news interviews did not seem to indicate that heat or other utilities had been cut off. I hope this is still the case. My best wishes for all the people there and thanks for replying.
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  243. Thanks for the informative video OM is tops on my list, especially considering the commercial market. This is the hidden dragon. Torpedoes come from a different direction each time. Very valuable.
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  244. Most likely due to lower quality finish and reduced features such as tank water heater vs tankless, low grade carpet rather than travertine, less ceiling detail. Many ways to provide a lowered price house that do not actually represent a truexreduction. On the buyer's side is the fact that builders often have bond debt payments used to fund infrastructure within the development. In Florida these are called CDD fees and are applied to yearly property tax but sometimes have prorated amounts due at closing for the current year. If houses do not sell the builder is responsible for all those payments for each vacant lot still in their possession. This is one reason why developments are done in phases. Another is that subsequent land purchases for additional phases at accomplished via exercising of options they own on the land. If market softens then they do not exercise and thus only lose the option premium.
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  245. A lot of people thought the same thing was hype around 2005, thinking that the period in 87 to 91 could not happen again. For those not familiar, the events of that period completely shut down the entire Savings and Loan industry and bankrupted the FSLIC which was the FDIC equivalent for Savings and Loan institutions. This period was nearly identical to the 2007 to 2012 period. Strange it is not talked about anymore.
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  246. More and more data points are beginning to show that the curve is shifting. Many perma bulls will begin to have a sentiment shift once the weight of data, and perhaps another 50 basis point rise or 2 will show further shifts. In this respect, it is similar to 2006 to 2011 period. Entered RE services back when the Savings and Loan institutions were crumbling. Many think there was only the great recession and before that, the great depression. Not so. The banking failures in the 1990 to 1993 period were so severe that a spin off of the FDIC was created specifically to handle the assets. This organization was called the Resilurion Trust Corp or RTC for short. That did not even happen in the 2008 debacle. Why to being this up? It was about 15 years from that period to the Great Recession. It has now been about 15 years since the GR and many similar influences and occurrences are in play now. Cycles occur in many assets and tend to be a result of human nature repeating. No crystal ball, so will just see how things play out, but history repeating is worth considering and worth studying up on a bit.
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  247. Let's not forget DOMs as a stage. Seeing those peak up to 30 to 40 days in many instances now. Many will forget that in balanced markets, typical days to contract are 60 to 90 days. During the last downturn I commonly saw them over 1 year. If you have MLS access you can easily verify this by doing searches in the 08 to 12 period. Yep, happened.
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  248. Imagine what these cities will look like when the next economic downturn comes. Noose is tightening.
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  249. Be patient on purchase both for the financial part as well as potentially having much higher variety to choose from in the future. You may get great, rather than just good if you wait.
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  250. Also, will be interesting to see what effects will be on those communities i f they have an inordinately high proportion of renters.
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  251. Just checked. He is right. Probably taper concerns. Worth keeping track. Interest rate hikes can rapidly affect new construction activity and possibly also resales.
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  252. The competition in the next couple years may very well be amongst the sellers rather than buyers. A similar "standoff" occured in our area in 2006.
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  253. Could very well be a dead cat bounce . Would recommend you stay in the lease. To do otherwise would be to bet against history. Not that I am right. Dont know. But atleast you have a known quantity at present. A falling knife can be painful.
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  254. Would recommend looking at monthly or 3 month changes in median price. Much more indicative of real time movement, but acknowledge that the YOY will be the biggest sentiment change. The CS YOY national index is the most quoted in media. Once this goes negative the lights go out. This will peak when the CS index reflects one year from peak, which appears to be May-June 2022. Given lag, this will be the CS report published about July of 2023. This will shock and should easily show in negative double digits.
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  255. Will look into this. Is quite scary on surface. Need to watch whole video. Thanks for bringing. Have you looked into SIPC? I am not knowledgable about it but pertains to brokerage accounts. Will update my knowledge base.
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  256. Kudos to the hardest working guy on youtube.
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  257. All pertinent considerations. The one thing that has happened but is nearly never considered or mentioned is a crash in rental rates. My dad was a real estate broker for 30 years in SW Florida and he used to share stories from the day. One phenomenon he discussed was when the apartment complex market crashed. Some enterprising folks bought up complexes for 10 to 15k per unit and profited mightily after a few years. Point is: rents can go down. When this happens, values and sales prices will be dramatically. His slogan for real estate after 30 years in the business was "no such thing as too high or too low". Unimaginable today? Well, in 2005, prices we saw in 09 to 10 would be unimaginable. In 2010, todays prices would have been unimaginable. Today, what is unimaginable in the future? I dont know, but personally I am not betting against historical cycles repeating.
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  258. If you come to coastal florida, it will be same thing as there. One tip for driving. Dont pull wheels into the gutters in front of construction sites. That's where the nails and screws wind up. Have had many tires patched or replaced due to this.
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  259. The new CS index should be out tomorrow. Of course it is 2 months delayed to closing which means about 3 months from price agreement. Has been reducing in YOY gain for several straight months and should continue tomorrow but will see. Despite lagging, it is likely the most referenced index and the December report it negative for the 1 and 3 month periods. For some reason, the YOY is the most quoted period. Will backfire when June to June YOY come out, there will likely be some raised eyebrows.
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  260. If rents collapse, investors will hibernate.
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  261. No problem. Without power right now but I have a solar panel battery charging setup with inverter which keeps phone charged and power to drop in freezer. Things here are pretty much normal but gas stations with fuel are limited and lines are long. Weather is unseasonably cool for moment so not sweltering in our homes. Power crews everywhere to get power restored. Roads clear and traffic moving fine. Have gas grill to heat coffee water and cook food. Grocery stores open. Not really bad here during recovery. Down south in Steve's area is different story and hope he resurfaces intact. If ok he would be a good interview for personal account of that area.
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  262. Here is a quick freaky fact. Our area in SW Florida has numerous development which resemble the one you are walking and resembled it in the 02 to 05 run up. When things bottomed, there was one month where a total of 14 new house permits issued in our county! That's how low things can go.
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  263. You might add one more way of doing an analysis. New home developments tend to have a definite and limited range of models. Would suggest doing separate analysis for each model. Perhaps they have a 1 story 2350 SF model. Only search for this model and see how closed sale prices for this model have changed. Then look at current list prices for active listings where price drops are claimed. Pending may not be helpful since contract date may be several months ago although you could search by contract date and only look at those with dates in 2023. There are often models of very similar size which sell at much different prices and hence the reliability of price per SF is reduced.
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  264. yes, I would offer a bit low considering what may happen over next several months. Beware the falling knife.
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  265. Once the velocity of money through the economy slows you will see changes.
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  266. Actually, taxes per completed are generally estimated. Also, move in ready or resales of newly built house typically, atleast in our area, carry a premium to new construction contract, presumably because of the 8 months to 1 year delay. Cant speak for other areas. Certainly not seeing any depreciation on the new houses upon title transfer. Have seen many flipped construction contract flips for large gains. I am professionally engaged in services almost 100% in new construction. Again, only can speak for my area. Yes, specs are not the normal but they usually build a few but generally close prior to completion.
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  267. Investors will certainly take note of changes in trend of rents. This could be exacerbated by employment. If employments drops, combined with increased living costs, further downward pressure on rents will occur. Just the fact that rents are not increasing is a big one. Any further increases in mortgage rates will increase negative investor sentiment. All ingredients are looming.
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  268. Condo buyout would work unless recession and downward RE market evolves. Then the higher new HOA fees create a tightening noise. I sense this is going on in many asset classes. I can imagine large impound lots with dozens of 80 to 90k pickup trucks. Recessions are like a massive reset buttons. The bull walks up the step but the bears jump out the windows. Would not be the first time.
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  269. Not just interest rate. Absolute price will evolve as a primary determinate once FOMO goes away. It's like a trace has worn off once one is not worried about getting in before prices rise further. This is accentuated when prices start to fall. Then the fear becomes that of grabbing a falling knife. Of course this is contingent upon price reductions. Fun to look at 2007 to 2011 MLS records to see the price genesis prior to contract. I saw dozens of these back in the day. Those more recent to real estate would find this incomprehensible. Yes, it did happen. Future uncertain, but not sure if a fed pivot would reverse this. It's a momentum game.
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  270. Hey Travis. A quick bit of data I have been meaning to research but haven't gotten around to, was addressed in Reventure's new video. You might want to check out. Specifically he went back to see what happened in the GFC when the Fed pivoted and started easing. Prices continued to decline for a lengthy period. I have always been a bit skeptical that an upcoming pivot would resurge real RE. Once economics take big downturn momentum tends to continue. Anyhow, you may want to check that video out. Of course, the big institutional buyers were not a factor then so could be different this time, but the historical prescedent is not for recovery upon pivot. Time will tell.
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  271. Because its land value. The structure has nominal value and may be a tear down. If you see really big housing around it, then that's the deal. Properties are defined by their site value, structure value, and value of site improvements.
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  272. I wonder how long it will take the mainstream media to start barking. They will probably minimize the significance or explain it off as temporary until the direction becomes undeniable.
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  273. Those are vacant lots in essescence. Sales price per SF is not really precise. Better to see if there are land sales then see how much extra the existing structure adds.
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  274. A well know investment guy has a simple quote. Mainly pertains to commodities but may prove out in RE as well. The quote is: "the cure for high prices is high prices". Seems we may be getting there in sales and rentals. Markets react
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  275. Good lord! The dots on the line of destruction are filling right in. Great work as always. Reminds me of some of the people who wanted to get paid in crypto during the peak.
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  276. Most of the large builders have in house origination with the shell of a finance company. My be actual builder financing or may be wholesaler behind the scene.might be worth a try to see about Hreeable terms for financing.
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  277. Not sure I would opt for the new build with incentives. Would be more inclined to wait for foreclosures in the same development but may take a year to two. Saw this in the last go around and the bottom really fell out. To buy new, it could be a falling knife.
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  278. Reasonable explanation of appraisals but one important thing is that after adjustments to comps you wind up with an "adjusted sales price" not a "net sales price" the word "net" may have an interpretation that is misleading. I do realize you are trying to break it down into a common language for listeners.
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  279. Ever get the idea that the noose on society is tightening?
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  280. Not that it is pertinent, but when Michael has his walking tour look, he resembles someone who would have appeared in an episode of Miami Vice. How coincidental he is from Miami. For RE, good to see interviews with guests. South Florida was particularly hard hit both during the GFC and before that during the S&L crises back in late 80s and early 90's. I was down there during that time alot when I worked for an asset disposition contractor. Really miss those stays at Embassy Suites hotels in Dade County during those days. It was quite a time.
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  281. You do realize that Centex is one of Pulte's brands.
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  282. Until people just say no to buying stuff at ridiculous prices, it will go on. The consumer controls this. Shop at Aldi. Even Walmart has gone greed, not green. There are options.
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  283. I have seen some price drops on new housing but might be a lower speced home unless this is a previously completed house. Is the house with 43k drop an already completed property?
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  284. OK. Then my guess is that they are offering to complete the property with fewer options at completion. None the less, there is likely a reduction in the completed property than one could have negotiated in last few months.
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  285. As far as those items affecting young people's decisions on home buying, the real big one is the layoff stats. Stretching to get the dream home is often done without consideration of employment stability and long term income projection. That is a very hard lesson to learn especially if sandwiched by an underwater property. Worked with many of these back in 09 to 10 period. It is sad and shocking.
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  286. Would not use MLS listing as a function of sizing market. Here in Florida, the vast majority of new construction are not listed on MLS. It is increasing a bit as realtors are more welcomed if sales slow. Sometimes they are placed on MLS after they are sold for recording purposes only.
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  287. One of the first things you learn in studying water intusion issues is that protrusions in roofing is the highest hazard causes. This was one of the first things I thought about when rooftop solar started hitting the market. Imagine how they complicate re roofing projects. I personally would never do them.
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  288. Here is another small clue. I just had to renew my annual appraisal software license, as residential appraisals is one of my services. My rep at the software company said that due to "slow" conditions, they were offering monthly payment option. This is the 1st time they had ever done this. She said that many of the appraisers she had spoke with had reported over 50% downturns in volume. Not exactly an official data point, but reflective of current conditions.
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  289. Remember there was very high appreciation from Jan to about june to August 2022. YOY not telling an accurate picture. Much data comes from MLS and much of new construction is not on MLS. Even the turvis tumbler factory store here near Venice has a "up to 50% off" 4 day sale going on now. Truly a sign of economic times!
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  290. Very true, but many had very significant renovation projects which can surpass 100k in the case of major, high end renovations. However, organic appreciation on it's own has been substantial. The big question however is: where do the prices of those renovated homes go to when we get 2 years into a recession and DOMs surpass 6 months. Yet to be determined but have seen it before.
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  291. Prices already too high. Any inflation will tighten the noose. If housing goes, everything goes and the reset button gets pushed with massive demand destruction for everything. Price reductions will prevail and then the fear of, and reality will be deflation. The cure for high prices is high prices. If real estate can go down in price, other things can as well.
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  292. The proposed rent control issue could accelerate downward market value and prices given that increasing rent anticipation is a large part of investor thesis.
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  293. I bet that staying with the lease on your home looks like the right decision. Probably better and better as time proceeds.
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  294. What the article is ignoring is the potential that prices could drop to such a level where fear sets in and the flood gates open causing a race to much lower prices. Wonder if "snowballing" will become a buzz term this year.
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  295. Sounds like a small quantity of yellowcake. At current pricing of $50 per pound probably not a high value item. In terms of hazard, some people have posed at production facilities holding yellowcake in their cupped hands. It is sold in ordinary barrels. Not a high hazard material. If this is highly enriched material, then different story. Was not disclosed in the news story.
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  296. Do mortgage rates change with demand for new mortgages or are they more tethered to the 10yr? Thanks.
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  297. I think that Minority Mindset guy Jaspreet is pretty sharp too. Would be a great guest.
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  298. Is possible and happened in the last boom after small reductions occurred. Was a falling knife.
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  299. Was Fidelity cc perhaps cancelled due to lack of use? Any explanation?
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  300. Very similar characteristics to late 2005-6. Things can charge when people least expect. Be watching that listing load over next several weeks.
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  301. Sorry about a 2nd comment, but this is a very unscientific observation about the mood for RE in the public psyche. This regards the TV shows you see on Discover Networks, HGTV etc. When you see foreclosure or distressed related content, you will know we have arrive prediction is that these shows where you see a young couple putting 200k+ into an old house to remodel etc will disappear. Was one several years ago in AZ think where people bid on site for foreclosure without going inside and what they discovered once they got access and anticipated costs and potential resale. That one disappeared once we got back to bull market. TV never truly about full reality, but does tap into the public vibe. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Regards.
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  302. A city with an "edge". Remember that one?
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  303. Funny, only discuss Cameco. Perhaps they do not know any other players? If new flow keeps going that will refine and discussions about the other players, as well as the actual market dynamics in the space will evolve. For now, it's clear that very few in the mainstream financial media have actually dug in with any depth. More to come.
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  304. I clearly remember in 2006, once prices declined about 10% there was a big upturn in sale for a short period assuming they had great deals. Of course we know what happened afterward. Same thing may be happening with reduced rates today. Turns are a multi year process and sentiment dictates activity.
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  305. You are not even factoring in insurance and tax. The actual impact is greater than you are estimating. All that with after tax income being chipped away by increased cost of energy, food, and general purchases.
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  306. Most inventory data appears to be based on MLS/IDX listings. A very large % of new construction is NOT MLS listed. Hence inventory is under reported.
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  307. He was the top dog on TV during the heyday of that series. Remember it well and have the entire DVD collection. The remake movie with Jamie Fox was pretty good too.
    2
  308.  @jimshoe402  the sound and music really set the atmosphere. The episodes are still good to watch and have the feel.
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  309.  @MichaelBordenaro  yep, and the villain would be an international drug lord laundering money by financing real estate investors in Miami.
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  310. shoe  omg
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  311. There has been significant price reduction from July 2022 through about 1st of year. However, we have seen some steady price increases and lower closing cost incentives since 1st of year here in SW Florida. I work almost exclusively in new home services and review about 20 to 30 new home contracts each month.
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  312. Possibly, those different builders and developments are part of a master development and part of each HOA goes toward the master development which can contain shared common or recreational elements.
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  313. I entered RE services during, as NIck referenced, the early 90's. What he is referring to is the S&L Crisis. Was very similar to the GFC. Strange no one remembers this, perhaps too young. Completely decimated the S&L industry and its deposit insurer, the FSLIC. Taken over by the subsidiary of the FDIC known as the RTC. Was personally involved with liquidating assets from failed banks and S&Ls around the country. Trust me, it was huge.
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  314. For the most part, correct about insurance being optional if you have no mortgage. But viewers need to be one thing in mind if they are buying in a deed restricted community. The HOA can require members to have insurance, so be careful if you are considering buying in one of those places and intend to self insure.
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  315. The storm is approaching the FT Myers area on the west coast. It's already north of miami and on other coast. Miami is pretty much out of danger for anything significant and Michael is aware. They could still get some significant rain and other effects, but nothing like being near the eyewall.
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  316. The slope is changing now. However since most contracts being signed to day will not show up on records for 30 to 45 days. Case Schiller is delayed another 30 or 60 days (they only publish once per month) after that to report on their housing trend analysis. Once any downtun is reported, it is actually well under way. Active listings and pending sales, provided they are listed on MLS, can be updated more quickly. Most new construction in our area is not listed on MLS. Resales generally are.
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  317. What happened to the importance of STEM?
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  318. No doubt if cash flow reduces and returns fall below the 10 year rate, it can move markets in a big way, especially if the outlook is not optimistic. When the sentiment shifts, buyer behaviour amongst investors can change substantially
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  319. Let's see. Electrolysis of water into hydrogen. How much energy does it take to perform electrolysis compared to the energy contained in the resultant hydrogen? Is it a net gain?
    2
  320. Something to know about taxes is that they are NOT flexibly tied to value. They are tied to municipal budgets. If property values fall dramatically, the rate of taxation can increase so dollars are sufficient to cover these budgets. These are called "roll backs". Call your local tax collectors office to see how it works in your area. The value down=taxes down assumption is not valid. Budgets have to reduce to allow your taxes to reduce.
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  321. Big recessions have a way of hitting the "reset" button. It brings things back into homeostasis. Will probably get here sooner than later. Then things become affordable again. Painful, but occurs when stretching the system breaks it. Has happened before and will again. Pendulum swings one way then back. I am preparing now. Saw those who benefitted in the last go around.
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  322. I saw,houses in many areas for down WAY more than 19% peak to trough back in the day. What's more important is the reduction in money velocity in the industry, that is atleast as severe since it destroys people to earn a living. If the rental market pops, its game over.
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  323. Very good point. A few years of downward, then stagnant bottom, followed by slow recovery. Takes years if we repeat.
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  324. Paralysis by analysis is not such a bad thing today. Some of the zoomed out crowd today has a mantra of just buy real estate and everything will be alright. Chips don't always land in a good place. Does not require detailed thinking but some thought may help avoid a big mistake. Do think things through before acting. I think patience may be rewarded and will not be penalized.
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  325. Hey Travis. Great as usual but just to nail one very small thing which is really not terribly important. Cape Coral is not pronounced like oral on a ranch. It is Coal like a coral reef. Not to be a pinhead but just to help you get it right. Love the data you presented here. Not sure how the pumpers can still be cheerleading on broad basis.
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  326. How obvious. Remember however big cycles are more common than great depression then 75 years later, great recession. Things get forgotten, like the S & L situation in late 80s. Was there with an asset distribution company which did lots of work for the resolution trust company (RTC), a division of the FDIC. Was basically identical to the GFC in the 2000's. Since that ended I, like yourself, have been a residential appraiser. Am seeing many similarities now to about 2005. Portland has specific issues, but that may portend a coming broader cycle change. Bulb burns brightest before it burns out. Already have a contingent "bad economy" business plan in preparation. Got caught unprepared in last downturn.
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  327. Sure enough, 2 real estate features on CNBC today discussing the "shortage". Will be an interesting couple months.
    2
  328. I think you might want to speak with a few builders reps to get an idea of actual increases. I think you might find that the cost increase is a lot more than 12% or so.
    2
  329. Compared to a year ago? This is BS. Since declines have started recently it will take another 6 to 8 months before year over year shows tends of decline. Completely masks the present trajectory. Should be reported month over month, not YOY. Nonsense.
    2
  330. Not sure if this applies nationally, but most agents, and hence the broker, contract into listing agreements as transaction agents, which means they are neutral with respect to representation. This came about many years ago since some large brokerages had a listing agent and another agent in the firm procured a buyer which put the broker into a conflict since individual agents are sub agents of the broker. How do you guys approach this with respect to representation and avoidance of fiduciary responsibility conflict?
    2
  331. "Investors" above was supposed to say "inventory". Damn autocorrect. Sorry.
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  332. And historically, 5.4 is a very low rate. Could go quite a bit higher.
    1
  333. Did a little research on the electric cars. Check out the cost for replacing the batteries when they go bad. Hopefully this will come down, but the ones I saw were WTF moments. Check it out for yourselves.
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  334. Of course, if big housing downturn evolves, supply will increase. Many of same dynamics were raised in media back in 2005 area, although the big institutions were not a factor since rents at that time did not cover holding costs. What is really needed is a big bursting of the rent bubble.
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  335. At the State College level, tuition in Florida is about 200 per credit hour with the average load of about 12 hours per semester which is $4800 per semester. Other than dorms, student housing is about $750 to $850 per month plus utilities. This adds another $3,200 +/- per semester quadruple occupancy.. In Floida you have Bright Futures scholarships if the student did reasonably well in HS and continues good grades in college. Pays for basic tuition but not additional program costs. Does not pay for housing. We seem to come around for all of us that housing is a big problem and student loans get way out of whack with this figured in
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  336. Actually the Dec CS is for data through October. It is 2 months delayed. The 2022 calendar year data will be revealed in the Feb report.
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  337. Because when prices go down rents do to and maintain same CAP rate. Has happened before and can easily happen again. Rents will be the last support. This, you are correct about. Speculators will be out once prices drop. Those who buy for rental income will still be around. Do you think rent is the primary reason for currect pricing? If so then materials shortages would not have boosted prices to same extent. The way up is a collection of reasons as is the way down, including just plain sentiment.
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  338. Inventory in new construction is grossly misunderstood. I am professionally involved 90% in new construction. They look at completely built housing as inventory. This is not correct, atleast in my area. A new home development has, say, 300 vacant lots. The way they sell is that the prospect goes through the models of which there is typically 4 to 6, signs the contract with the builder for the purchase, and the builder then builds it and it closes within a couple days after completion. The inventory is the vacant lots ready for contract, not finished houses. These builders will start a handful of new builds and market them throughout the construction process. In our area, they are seldom finished prior to getting under purchase contract. Thus the inventory data published is understated since those pertain to either finished houses or issued permits. Think about it.
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  339. They talk about "deals". These are only in comparison to recent all time highs. These are very tenuous decisions based upon the belief that upward trends will continue or by those who were marginally priced out in recent months. Either way, these folks are sticking necks way out. It gets down to belief. In the end, the market does what it will and those who experienced the last debacle would probably have a more cautious and patient approach.
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  340. One thing missing from your thesis, is the reduction of buying by speculators if prices reduce. The will be out. Period. Some data on what proportion of sales are investor purchases would be helpful reconciled into the equation. Motivations of owner occupants and investors is quite different.
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  341. This is absurd. 7kg of natural U3O8 is worth about $450 USD. That's it. You can scrape more off boulders with a knife in some western states in the US.
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  342. I think one more lease extension might be in the works for you. Glad you are talking "price" now rather than equity rise or loss. I think first timers may have not understood what you meant. Things are going to get interesting after midterms. Bad for my primary service but will benefit my "bad economy" services i have ready to implement, albeit after some period of downturn. Must have contingencies in place.
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  343. Great to hear you like to fish. You do have a life. I live on a fairly shallow creek. No sharks that I have seen, but gators and manatees and in the winter, lots of snook.
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  344. Some of those may be cut again. In the old days 3 to 4 months was typical DOM. Bet you don't regret extending your lease now!
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  345. Does it feel like 2005 again in real estate again? From one appraiser to another, remember? Was there also for S&L crisis days, history does rhyme but today's situation unique. Future? Uncertain. When downturn hits this time, will be brutal. Already making some professional contingencies for that event. 1004MC'S say it all. Listings getting hard to find ala FHA listing comps, as well as many AMC, requirements. Downturn may change some of the societal priority issues however. Has a reset effect, albeit a hard one.
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  346. If DOMs return to historical levels, jaws will drop. If they return to levels of last recession, people will flat out have cardiac arrest. For those not following the markets over time, can you imagine 6 months or even over a years with multiple large price reductions? Yes it happened. Commonly. Then you know it might be time to jump in. Recommend patience. No such thing as too high or too low for RE prices.
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  347. Also, I am getting notification just fine. Other podcasters saying same as you however.
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  348. Absolutely not true about comps for new construction. There are indeed rules that require comps to be taken from competitive developments as well as from the subject development. Good practices call for also resale comps. This takes out the influences of builder incentives in final reconciliation. Many years ago, use of builder comps was frowned upon for these reasons. Fannie and Freddie regs are a little different from each other and sometimes lender specific requirements can apply.
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  349. My guess is it is just a tech glitch. I'm sure you will be back in the green soon. If there is something about the narrative they don't like, they would be doing same with Steve, Scott, Saks, Dan and bunch of others. Anything we can do for you to help?
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  350. In the end, holding costs will settle this issue in combination with confidence reversal.
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  351. Torn on this one. Believe in free market but certainly understand your point. Once they control real for one purpose, a threshold is crossed and boundaries are unknown. Perhaps the investors will jump in and buy a bunch of falling knives
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  352. Meant real estate above, not "real"
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  353. Midterms only a few days away. Things about to get interesting.
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  354. Meant agreeable terms. Was a misprint in first try.
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  355. Some folks think there is environmental reasons for EVs. However they need to assess what fuel and carbon usage was used to generate the electricity. If nuclear then OK but then comes down to cost of power. Renewables just don't produce enough power for grid scale.
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  356. Good luck getting through the procedure. I am sure you will be fine.
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  357. Flood has specific definitions and typically covered by NFIP to limits and by private insurance over and above these limits. Not sure what NFIP limit is now but was 250k on structure and 50k on personal property. May have changed since then. Water on roof is not flood is insured by P&C coverage.
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  358. Never any certainties, but the possibilities and probabilities are clearly leaning.
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  359. A funny Cape Coral story. Was heading to Punta Gorda for Pink Floyd tribute band show last weekend. Just before the turn off for Punta Gorda I saw a millage sign for other towns. First on the list was Cape Coral and I involuntarily blurted out the name and laughed. Wife asked me what was so funny about Cape Coral. I told her she wouldn't quite understand🤩
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  360. My guess it that the proper comparison is NOT today to 2008. Given time since peak, today should be compared to early to mid 2006. Wait atleast about a year or better to make those 2008 comparisons to assess market comparability between the 2 downturns.
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  361. Soon the YOY metric will be ignored in favor of month over month. Yes, I understated that same YOY is done to eliminate typical seasonal variations. A 10% reduction near term with show as positive YOY and hence some will conclude that prices are still rising but at lower velocity. This would obviously be an incorrect conclusion. Watch out for this. I have seen it happen before. Learn to read the tea leaves before making financial decisions.
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  362. Nothing surprising. Income real estate is merely a management intensive alternative to bonds or other income instruments.
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  363. Spot on. Narratives get fully exploited.
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  364. Another type of owner you might consider is the cash buyer, especially multi property owners. No mortgage. These folks have 100% skin in game and cant throw back to lender in worst case. Will bail quickly once downturn begins. Especially if they went through last go around. This accelerates the down and steepens the curve. Have to get through the dead cat bounce stage. Then it really goes. This is what I saw in glorious style 2006 to 2008. History repeat? Who know, but history, and hence human nature, has a habit of repeating.
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  365. Wait until June for the YOY data. Then we will be one year from the peak. There will be some shock and awe. It is obvious although there may be some narrative engineering in attempt to prevent panic.
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  366. Time to grab the rod and bait the hook. Working too much.
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  367. Have shares and excited to see how the src can help. In the US, Energy Fuels should benefit as well providing they can find stable source of monazite.
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  368. Glad to see you hook up with Steve, he is in my market area and sometimes speaks to our local issues. SW Florida was heavily affected in last downturn
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  369. Not in market for house. Perhaps investment in event of big downturn, but potentially big drop ahead. Entered RE services way back in S&L crisis days around 1990. Was very similar to the GFC in its effects. Saw the massive downward pricing at that time and allowed me to make highly accurate predictions to dismayed investors and friends for future around 2005. They thought I was nuts and got angry. Too early at present for near term predictions moving forward but would at least have contingencies in place just in case. No, absolutely not looking to buy in near term. Would caution about getting caught up in a dead cat bounce. Happened in 2007 to 8 prior to protracted downturn. My opinion only.
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  370. What will happen when this economic bull cycle turns down. Crime typically rises in downturning economic times. I feel heartily for the folks there.
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  371. Remember that if one converts a residence to a rental, they will lose any property tax and assessment protections that are in place, so that might be one demotivated that would need to be considered. The new primary residence would have protections but at the higher rate paid for the new sale.
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  372. Definitely not an HOA person. I am an avid gardener but, I do feel that if you buy into an association you have agreed to give e control to others. Buyer beware and don't complain later. Know what you are getting into.
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  373.  @torsten6777 DOMS can be broken down into contract or closing DOM. Additionally there are cumulative DOMs which account for the total DOM despite withdrawal and relisting. In the 2008 to 2011 period it was not uncommon to see cumulative DOMs of over a year through 3 or more relistings of the same property. Those new to real estate may find this unfathomable, but certainly did happen and could happen again. Requires a good MLS service which can document properly. Since I do not use the public sources such as Zillow and others, I do not know if this is tracked. When listings are put on the IDX, which allows external sites to pick up, not ALL the data from the original listings are exported. Especially not the agent to agent data
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  374. Bo jangles dirty rice is the best and they have been around for a long long time.
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  375. Wait until people see the YOY median SP change come June 2023. You will sell a bunch of those shirts once that comes. It's just so obvious.
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  376.  @randykoehler4556  inflation coming down fast? Not reflected in CPI reads or PPI reads that I am familiar with.
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  377. Watch out for unemployment figures. Common sense would indicate that as income reduces, delinquencies will increase. Would be interesting to see when the current delinquent properties were purchased. When I was appraising distressed properties in the last go around, a high proportion of them we purchased near the peak. FHA by its mandate services people who are less financially capable, so no surprises, but numbers are shocking. All this just a few months past peak. Wait for about a year from now and see.
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  378. Neither of those companies are really pulling much out of ground due to low prices of the commodity. The US is not only whispering but over 15% of power generation comes from nuclear power and the US has the largest fleet of reactors in the world and largest user of uranium. Much bigger than you guys realize. Inventories are drawing down which combined with low mining means that prices are likely to increase.
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  379. I wonder how this will factor into the housing market if the sales end of things slow or recede. Technically, higher rent will support higher prices, but a slowing or receding market tends to have opposite effect. No telling. Like a big fruit salad with good and bad fruit. I personally would not be investing until smoke clears
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  380. Before Dodd-Frank, which addressed issue arising from the GFC, there was FIRREA which arose out of the 87 to 93 period which wrecked the entire Savings and Loan industry which was the primary source of mortgage loans. This acronym stood for Financial Institutions Reform and Recovery Enforcement Act. It was implemented to prevent a repeat of that period which also was real estate based. How well did it work? 12 or so years later we entered the GFC. Now, here we are again about another 12 years with the same apparent circumstances. Different this time? Or maybe 3rd time a charm. Be careful out there. Regards
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  381. Who is Spencer?
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  382. Where I live in Sarasota County it is amazing how often I see 60 to 80k pick up trucks in from of little 2/1 houses with carports. A few years ago the likely occupants would have had beater cars and a bunch of people living there splitting rent. Not sure what to conclude but one possibility is poor financial choices on the part of many to live the dream believing that construction or related services will go on forever. Been through last 2 recessions and not pretty when it comes. Seems in overdrive this time around. Noose tightening?
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  383. Mattamy has a large presence in Florida as well as being one of Canada's largest builders.
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  384. Not sure why the word "crash" is so often used. When real state goes down it's more like a slow motion train wreck. Destructive indeed but over time. Sentiment takes awhile to reverse with enough people that broad market is effected. It could be quicker this time than last since news and opinions travel quick over the web, but turning sentiment into action requires that some mental hurdles are surmounted. Eventually a panic sets in but it is after all doubts are defeated. Belief in any asset class is a strange mix of logic, hope, and conflicted thoughts. Those who negatively experienced the last downturn will probably act more quickly. Good luck to all.
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  385. And the intensity of their remorse might increase substantially. This is not a joke.
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  386. Wouldn't it be easier just to take the assignment Clause out of a sales contract
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  387. The MS media plays by the old adage of media "give the people what they want" and at the moment that is a narrative. At some point the downturn, it will be undeniable and everyone will know it. Same deal as into 2006 a bit. Only the names have changed.
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  388. Kind of stunning how many house sales I have seen where short term ownerships were sold at losses, were sold by Offerpad or Opendoor. Not sure if typical, but between lower price and seller closing costs, quite the haircut.
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  389. Decline in inflation should not be confused with more affordable. Another 6 or 7% over unaffordable is even more unaffordable. LOWERING prices is what is needed to gets things properly reset.
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  390. The documentary can be seen on youtube.
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  391. HVAC condensers are a problem and that delays wood floors or carpet due to humidity.
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  392. See how much you need the truck and what the Civic will cost. I like what Steve Daria has done selling his condo near the peak and renting another place for 6 months. Right now many would question him. In the future he may be shown to be brilliant. Many may wish they had done the same. History and experience are pretty good teachers. It's all about possibilities and probabilities. There are no certainties.
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  393. Equities investors have a different mindset. Much of it performed by algorithms. Anticipate a proportional sell off once the algos see a change.
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  394. Many reason why volume increased. may be result of seller capitulation and price drop combined with slight rate drop.
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  395.  @realestatemindset  that is good, but visually you wont be able to tell the levels of spec inside. Have probably reviewed about 2000 builders contracts over past 5 years. Even for same models, there can be very wide price differences due to options, site premiums etc. From google earth images you may be able to see pools or elaborate porches. Some of these have extensive outdoor kitchen and even outdoor porch fireplaces. These are very expensive options. If you can locate a former new home salesperson, they could probably elaborate on current pressures to sell, how they might renogiate contract rates for subs or materials etc. There is so much to new construction beyond basic published prices.
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  396. Do you just suppose that this could affect resales from competitive private homeowners? Builders can cut in ways that regular people cant. Absolutely will affect broader market.
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  397. You can always reference your property appraisers office web site to verify the level of closed sales. They may be somewhat delayed depending on how busy the recording office is in getting rewly recorded deeds onto their web site.
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  398. EF has potential for multiple income streams, which is a good feature. Also has a good listing. The mill will be essential for many of the newer hard rock explorers. They will absolutely be reliant on EF if they wish to get cake in the can. EF will be able to name their price unless Shootaring will get underway but that would be pretty far into the future. In new to mid term, White Mesa is it.
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  399. Always lived below my means. Dont need fancy phone, fancy car, frequent restaurants etc. $1,49 per lb. at Aldi for drumsticks. Couple hours in the smoker with applewood chips and you have a treat for the ages. So many ways to minimize costs if you just look.
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  400. You hit it on the head. Once prices start going down, there is a rush for the exits to cash out while they still have a profit. Only to find out a bunch of others got there first. On the buying end, all investors are out of the game and everyone else has falling knife syndrome. The more desperate take what they can get and the snowball starts rolling down the hill. Been through the last 2 of these periods and was the same. Will receive hate comments of the same nature that I did in late 2005. The last peak. Just history repeating.
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  401. Hard to say for sure what will happen, but turbulence is everywhere. Reminds me of late 2005. If real estate tanks, could take economy down again. Lumber down 60% in last couple months. New construction in quandary between lowering prices if sales tighten. However this could cause dominoe effect in resale market and immediate increase in listing load. Saw in early 2006 in our region. Causes loss of confidence and a subsequent selloff. Feel for those who panic bought under pretense that they needed to get in prior to even higher prices. Same occurs in securities. Part FOMO and part fear. Not sure about house price projections for future. Affordability wall appears imminent. Only continues if a recent sale allows moveup. What's the outlook for first time buyers? Getting out of reach for many. At some point the whole thing halts.
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  402. Not ot be a pinhead, just for correctness. The town of Cape Coral, Florida is pronounced Coral as in Coral reef. Always good info in the podcast and the future will be interesting. Have a great weekend. Not shark fishing this weekend, but saw a monster Snook under my dock the other day. Pretty good fishing in its own right. We have sharks too.
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  403. That or a cash out refi.
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  404. Some of the professions you reference have license requirements which necessitate education requirements. To be an appraiser now has some education requirements.
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  405. Absolutely brilliant energy policy. Pay to get people to get rid of gas appliances in favor of electric which will require power plants to up the gas burning to provide more electricity to power all the new electric ranges that replaced the gas ones. Is there ever an end to the stupidity! Yes, gas powers most power generating facilities. Dont like gas plants, then go with coal or oil. Germany has learned similar lesson when the shut down nuclear. Now they are burning more coal than ever and have higher emissions. Oops, the $500B wind/solar experiment didn't work out to well.
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  406. Decent analysis but need to break down electricity cost to price per mile traveled.
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  407. A more revealing stat would be the comparison of SP to ORIGINAL list price and compare this to same from year ago. That would be eye opening since a year ago many were selling above original list price.
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  408. Guess that fits into the tourism motto the Portland has "Edge"! "Come see it for yourself". Hmmm, maybe next year.
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  409. Really good point about FHA purpose in a 40 year conversion. Wonder how this is approached if the property is underwater. With on 3% down it would appear that this could be an issue on a large proportion of those purchased in last 2 years. Are the insuring 110% or more?
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  410. Remember also with new home construction that every vacant lot in modern developments represents inventory despite there not being a permit on these.
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  411. Sentiment is the key to the future. Right now, mass sentiment is kind of neutral. Those in the field are seeing changes. Once Case Schiller reports YOY negative, mainstream media will start reporting. Unfortunately it lags about 3 months. Needs to be water cooler talk. Then we will see bigger movements.
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  412. Sorry, was not clear, was referring to 2006 in terms of duration from peak prices, location dependent of course. Does seem to be changing more rapidly this time in some areas.
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  413. How about Wilt Chamberlain?
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  414. I think the wise look for where the puck is going rather than where it is. When recessions arrive, they tend to come as a surprise. Then drastic changes in habits occur. Otherwise tends to be business and spending as usual.
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  415. One thing not covered was the approach was to watch the little guys historically and see how they reacted when the previous catalysts hit. In other words what happened when the tide came in. Not all reacted the same, but many of the shitcos out performed the big guys when the runs came. I have applied many scenarios so have the whole rainbow approach. She brought up niobium but did not mention the when vanadium had it's big run because China mandated strengthened rebar, niobium found demand because to had the same properties as vanadium and was cheaper. Once this occured, vanadium prices came back down. May not have good future as it appears that construction in China may be falling off.
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  416. Hey Travis. Given your expertise, an explanation of the type of loans would be helpful in assessing difficulties for commercial RE. Are they similar to SFR mortgages? Sorry if I missed it in the podcast.
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  417. But not surprising. Those of us in RE services in the 2002 to 2006 period have seen this dance before. I was also there during the S&L crisis days 1987 to 1991 and easily predicted the 06 to 2010 period without surprise. Different torpedoes in each case but all predicated by human nature which is predictable and repeatable.
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  418. Kind of feeling like we are wearing straight jackets that are shrinking
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  419. if you noticed, the new Case Schiller National index not at 12.99% YOY increase. This is about 5 straight months of lowered YOY. OF course, in a changing market, YOY means nothing as an increase is probably not consistent with the current tend in real time, but changing for sure. My guess, the YOY figures will go negative as we distance from the peak, which may show to be around mid summer. Once this happens and gets reported on, you may see some large sentiment changes in broad population.
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  420. In my recent MLS searches I have noticed that active listing are dwarfing pending sales. A fundamental change appears to be evolving. If this progresses then some wholesale changes in the industry will occur and the NAR issues will become irrelevant. Have been through the last 2 big downturns and history may be repeating. All current narratives may become passe soon.
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  421. Saw the doors movie, but the bigger one was Altered States with William Hurt. Total nonsense sci fi, but fun none the less. I doubt that the average user is doing so in "clinical" settings. Timothy Leary was the big promoter.
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  422. I love your content Orlando but when the sponsor sales pitch begins, I am gone. Sorry. Love the channel otherwise.
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  423. Great to see you back on tonight. Be well.
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  424. Understand the point, but when you allow the govt to supercede a free market, you might create a Frankensteins monster since it could spiral rapidly and no established boundaries. Ok with the Homepath system, but not the broad market. What would be the endpoint of such authority? Truly scary.
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  425. Great analogy. They are all playing games. Nations have carefully omitted uranium from sanctions but talk tough. Atleast maybe they have learned the lesson about becoming exclusively reliant on one country for supply. Wait to see what happens when Putin cuts off the supply.
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  426. Saw similar bump in sales around early 2006 once prices loosened. We know what happened afterward. No crystal ball but as you said: "history.............". Will see what happens.
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  427. Keep the glasses, makes you look right out of Miami Vice.
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  428. YOY is useless once a new trend emerges. It only masks what is happening in the here and now. Many will learn this the hard way.
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  429. A very successful gentleman I follow in the commodities market has an expression. He says: "the cure for low prices is low prices and the cure for high prices is high prices" simplistic but has bore out through history. Perhaps RE and rental prices are that simple.
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  430. I actually did see multimillion dollar properties go way way down during the last go around. Properties in all classes get sent back to the banks when the dam breaks. Maybe not in the quantity as lower priced home but also not that rare. If the big one happens, the equity totals that can be lost would be staggering to say the least.
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  431. Not sure I would be buying gold in a dollar strengthening environment. I own 20 or so gold majors and mid tiers. Prices are relatively low. Check the premiums on gold and silver coins, bars and rounds. Apmex was off the chart on silver eagle's. Until that comes down its shares in PM trusts or beaten up junior miners. They are good values You get the gain and avoid the premiums and miners tend to be leveraged to the metal price.
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  432. Will boats and other recreational vehicles be next?
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  433. Agree with most of what is said, however if market starts declining then many of the dynamics you describe will be different. This includes comps. In declining market, lenders will start to look at list prices of available properties. Many do not know that appraisals contain not only data for closed sales but also typically will have 2 or more listing or pending comps with pending being preferred. This requirement came in the last downturn where asking price on listings became more indicative of security for a loan. So much that people do not know about.
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  434. Wonder if they could institute a call on the shares if the property value, and hence collateral, falls?
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  435. The sales agent is probably taking prospects out to look at sites. Typically there will be golf carts in the model center parking lot, if not then they are showing property. Often there will be more than one agent on site. Sometimes the sales center may be empty due to staff meetings or that an agent may need to open a completed property. Often, completed houses stay locked unless someone has reason to get in. The building supers have the master key or combo, but the buyers or others need access. Doubtful that a development like that one would not have sales agents on duty on a workday. Had to laugh, I heard the Taco truck horn in background. We have them here in full force in construction developments!
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  436. Was that place pre bought? May explain. A lot of new construction does not go on MLS in our area.
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  437. What were there losses attributed to?
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  438. The gap is because price is capitalized to income. This is why prices go down quickly once rents drop, especially if organic price appreciation stagnates or drops. It's a perfect storm when that happens.
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  439. As for new construction this is where I perform most of my services. In about 2018 Powel was rising rates. I saw construction drop very significantly to point where I was investigating other income streams and was making countercyclical investments. If you can remember, Trump started hammering Powell relentlessly and then the Fed reversed. Shortly thereafter, rates started reversing and, not surprisingly, construction picked back up substantially. Different circumstances today in the broader economy so no clear vision. But yes, interest rates can have very clear and significant effects. Given today's circumstances, it is NOT a clear projection that things would pick back of in event of a Fed pivot. Prices are so much higher in recent year or 2. Other cost of living much higher. We could be entering an absolute price barrier and reversion to mean could predominate. Would be useful to see the long term reversion chart going back several decades. There is so much data out there that people can pick and choose what data they wish to reference and therefore come up with conflicting conclusions.
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  440. Trends really only get changed through recessions or other mass moves. Until then, habits get firmly entrenched. Feel deeply for the young adults who don't have personal experience with downturns. It is very tough for them in current environment to understand what can happen. When it comes it is total shock. Cycles have been around for very long time and will likley repeat. Regards.
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  441. I thing the real estate coverage will regain interest soon. Seeing some changes here. From one of your fellow appraiser colleagues.
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  442. Same as 2005 area. Many young people had the FOMO of get in now or wont be able to afford. It is scarry. Unfortunately within 2 years they had a much different fear after buying. If you have MLS you can search properties in given hoods. Ours goes back 20 or so years. Looking at 2005 prices followed by 2008 in same goods is quite amazing. Language in those 05 MLS records is stunningly similar to now. Language in 08 to 10 MLS entries is quite the contrast. Is that the next step moving forward? You learn the hard way in the RE game.
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  443. Seen a trend where many homes under construction are not already contracted by buyer. This is a definite shift.
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  444. Great as usual but one exception, builders do not necessarily complete projects if prices fall apart. In last debacle, many projects in our area vacated with numerous vacant lot remaining which were leveled and sodded over. 2 I remember had roads, street lights, and all other infrastructure installed, eventually became a forest of tall weeds but no houses. Biginning this new housing boom, both got bought by regional builders and are now fully built out. 1 partially built development turned away from package house/lot deals, and sold lots off and presumably modified the bylaws to allow builder of choice option for lot purchasers.
    1
  445. Hillary approved the CFIUS sale of uranium assets from Uranium 1 to Rosatom. However, Rosatom sold all those assets back to Uranium Energy Corp back in the US right before they invaded.
    1
  446. Not to mention pools or site size
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  447. Those appear to be stem walls which may be used to elevate above a flood plain requirement. Not from there and cant say for sure.
    1
  448. Within a couple months, if direction continues, the writing will be on the wall and the point moot. Data will become meaningless when pain begins. Seen it all before. Not sure if those people feel that you are affecting the market or sniping Youtube followers. Not sure what else it could be. Everyone has a view on things and the chips will fall where they will.
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  449. It is disturbing.
    1
  450. Not well known, but during the last debacle, Florida had negative population growth. Many people left to find opportunities in other states. Goes to what Michael said about people moving to those more affordable areas. Yes, it can happen again.
    1
  451. Step out? You bet. We are early in the process. There is always are recency bias in human nature. Kind of a built in instinct that suggest that what is happening now will continue. As we can see, markets can and do change to a new normal.
    1
  452. RE: Insurance in Florida. Hey Orlando. Did you see the latest on Citizens Insurance in Florida. Official announcement that Citizens is nearly insolvent. Citizens is the state run insurer of last resort.
    1
  453. From one of your appraisal colleagues, The market will determine. In our area, attached housing is frequently priced comparable to detached SFR. No motivation for builders to build at less than HBU.
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  454. Last shoe to drop will be if rental rates reduce. No other big supports if investor interest wanes.
    1
  455. Think 75. A nice round number and not a bad price per SF goal. This is what I saw for modern PUD housing in the last downturn. Not possible? Who would have guessed the current situation a year ago. Even 6 months ago.
    1
  456. If you want to see the impact of incentives and buy downs on value, then you need to research comps which have sold for cash. However you also need to make sure that the comps have similar view and builder upgrades. The process of valuation is not so simple as some would assume.
    1
  457. If that were the case, the damage would have been restricted to the US. It was actually worldwide and much caused by derivatives being package and sold. Epicenter was London traders and firms. Iceland went bankrupt. Domestically, only a small proportion of foreclosures were subprime. For sure easy lending was a problem. This included adjustable, loans, no doc, negative amortizing, interest only etc. However many more factor. once prices start to fall for whatever reason, a whole new set of fears set in and selloffs occur. Same in 1987 where events took place that culminated in massive failures of savings and loan companies and massive real estate downturn. Subprime was not a word even used in those days. Certainly can happen for different reasons. Fastest growing loan type today? Adjustable rate. Will see what happens.
    1
  458. The typical dead cat bounce. Results in falling knife result.
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  459. I do services related to new construction closing diligence. Am on 3 to 6 or more construction sites each week. I am stunned to see how many truck heaven f150s and RAMs used by contractors. Many of these trucks are in the 80k+ range. Market clearly starting to moderate and would imagine that many of these trucks will show up on lots soon after repossession. Trades have been good for last few years but is changing and that debt will come home to roost
    1
  460. Have you guys watched Travis mini series of on location videos in the western states. Good look at the SFR new construction activity. I have seen same here in SW Florida. CMBC needs to watch before next feature proclaiming the "shortage on new homes" narrative.
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  461.  @mattlv2002  since I work for them, it is not my perogative, just a hazard that goes with the turf. Would imagine for residents who have to drive by construction sites daily, it could be a real concern. The best way to avoid is to not venture into gutters on the edge of the roads. This is where nails and screws tend to gravitate. It is also where visitors to the site and contractors pull over to before getting out of their cars or trucks.
    1
  462. Thanks for the tick on MBS. I do not follow that market but will take a look. Changes in markets usually announce in subtle ways. Good to keep up. Not a bond or derivatives guy , but interested in checking this.
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  463. Enjoy your vacation! If you go to west Florida, check out Venice pier. Well known shark fishing point. A little farther south is Boca Grande/Gasparilla Island. This is a world famous Tarpon fishing spot. This is in Port Charlotte/Ft Myers area. Very close to your nemesis town: Cape Coral!
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  464. Hey Dan. You are probably referring to the Freddie Mac desktop appraisal. Has not gained wide acceptance amongst appraisers. Despite the third party inspections, the appraiser is responsible for accuracy. Also, strangely, it requires a sketch and floor plan with interior walls depicted in this sketch. It is limited to 1st position, sales with no more than 90% LTV. I have no clue to why appraisers would take these on. As for inflating appraisals, that is a good way to lose one's license. Not as wide spread as you assume.
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  465. Think new construction prices will come down with lumber reducing? Need slowed sales first? If so will higher priced March through july buyers revolt?. Saw this happen back in the 1987 through 90 period when new home prices reduced.
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  466. Wow, 7 days a week Travis. Take a vacation Bro. Come to Florida. Will show you new construction in depth here and then to a local pier, widely famous for shark fishing. The beach there is known as the "black beach" due to the quantity of sharks teeth found there. Dont burn out
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  467. Keep in mind that in tract homes, there are frequently very extensive facilities and infrastructure that represents a lot of debt. Sometimes this debt is in the form of bonds. In my area this bond debt is applied to each lot. Here the call this CDD fees or Stewardshp fees and is paid in the property tax. The fees vary substantially. I have seen anywhere from a few hundred dollars to several thousands. This is why the tax bill on the vacant lots can be $2,500 or more even though the value assessment can be $25,000. These are special assessments and do not change regardless of changes in market values. As long as the builder owns these lots, they are obligated to pay each year. Given that they may have a couple hundred lots, this adds to the motivation to reduce prices in slowing conditions. Add to this any additional expense of construction of pools, clubhouses etc, these reductions eventually compete with resales in the broader market. Concerned parties should pull tax Bill's in any developments they are interested in. They will be listed as non ad valorum assessments in the tax bill. Of course, this adds substantially to the final tax bill on the finished property when complete.
    1
  468. Oh yes, and during that period that saw DOMs over a year, there were numerous price drops and relistings of the same properties at lower prices. Total DOMs were cumulative DOMs.
    1
  469. Depends upon the price drop, but yes. Get out the calculator and do the math.
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  470. How very ironic, the courts/prosecutors dont do their duty and wind up getting bit by criminals. Not a joke obviously. Serious, but cant help but to recognize a flashing neon sign with the letters OBVIOUS emblazoned brightly.
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  471. You have to careful if you are in a private community. Not sure if that is case here. If public roads, then everyone can walk, but if private, you can run into problems if you are there uninvited.
    1
  472. Time to bring in consultants from Saudi and other mideast countries to show us how to address theft issues.
    1
  473. To think you were debating whether or not to re up your lease just a few weeks ago?
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  474. You get what you get for rent. Imagine having a,similar mortgage payment which for about 5 years is like rent anyhow given the high proportion of interest in early years payments, then getting a 30k decrease in value thus making you deeply underwater. Goodbye down payment equity. Goodbye mobility. Hello insanity. Feels real bad
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  475.  @MrRevell111 yep
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  476. As long as the "stick it to the landlord" mentality is in vogue, I am out of the rentals market. Pricing too high at moment anyhow. If/when prices come down enough then a good return will be available at lower rents. Also means that rents will be easier for tenants to make and thus lower chance of non payment. For present, wait it out.
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  477. It appears that this was not an attack to harm the plant. It was a raid to take control of it. Not good obviously, but not an attempt to cause a radiation event.
    1
  478. There will be a rebound as this happened. Unfortunately, those buys became falling knives as part of a dead cat bounce. Exactly what happened in 2006. Will this repeat? Time will tell.
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  479. Very few of the same models of house sell for same price. In new home construction, there can be an extreme difference in upgrades and options as well as the site orientation on ponds, preserves etc. I have seen new construction contracts on a home with a $450k base price and the purchasers has contracted for an additional 250k in options. Nearly impossible to make apples for apples comparison. I work extensively in new home developments and see every contract for these houses.
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  480. I have no doubt that downward pressure on a housing types will evolve, but new construction pricing is very convoluted. Would recommend you visit some new home developments and talk to some agents. It is soooooo much different than resales. Would anticipate that incentives consisting of reduced site premiums and upgrades would be first implemented, increased closing cost assistance, waivers to HOA fees etc would predominate. Some reduced prices may be the result of lowered specs as well. If the dam collapses, it will be obvious but would not make assumptions until that time. Some assume that lower starts would mean lower inventory when it really means lowered sales. In our area in many developments, all vacant sites are inventory ready to be sold. A contract for construction is consummated after which construction begins. Spec homes are not the norm in these developments.
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  481. Amazing that it takes Orlando to get people to understand common sense, but since we have him, hopefully it will do some good. He puts lack of financial sense in clear and simple focus.
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  482. Wonder if you should consider adding 1 additional stage. This would be DOMs. ADOM and CDOM. These would preceed price change
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  483. A lot of pent up demand just waiting for any break in rates. These folks are easily triggered into buying.
    1
  484. Popularity of these guys starting to wane as younger generation has their own heroes. Looking to pick up an original Denny Dent art attack Hendrix piece for good price soon.
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  485. Not only should your investment analysis include those you mentioned, but also a buffer for the possibility that rents can drop, especially if the economy turns down and unemployment increases.
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  486. I am also on Florida gulf coast, just starting to see change in trajectory. No telling exactly, but if you have patience, would recommend waiting for a few months. If anything like 06, then you will be rewarded.
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  487. The silent ripoff is the replacement cost estimate. The rate is multiplied by the replacement cost to create the premium. There is no regulation on cost estimates. Works just like tax bill in that regard. In 2012, Citizens got into big trouble for excessive RCV estimates. You can google this if you wish to research. This is the component you need to fear going forward. Furthermore the base rate for personal property coverage is higher than real estate and in a HO policy, personal property is assumed to possess a large portion of the structure value. Usually 25 or 50% of the structure value. So if your structure has 300k in RCV, then you can be paying for $150k of personal property coverage but some classes of valuables are only covered up to 5k. Talk to your agent for details.
    1
  488. Your listing and pendings analysis is right on the money here in Sarasota Bradenton area.
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  489. Hope you guys faired OK. Here in the Sarasota area, Nicole was a mild wind and rain maker. Definitely did not need anything resembling another Ian type event. Was strangely cold when it came.
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  490. It's important to apply the Wayne Gretsky approach. That is to not see where the puck is now, but to move to where the puck will be going.
    1
  491. Dont understand. If people sold securities would the proceeds not remain in the securities accounts? Brokerages also have SIPC coverage which increases the cash insurance limits. Different rules. That could reduce management fees but is not significant when compared to BOA overall business. Account holders may rotate to other securities within these accounts. Not sure, but even if they remove these proceeds would that impact reserve requirements. Did not think that brokerage units are calculated into the banking unit accounting. Perhaps this is more your area of expertise, but appears offset by the inflows to the banking unit from community banks.
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  492. Seeing some strange things evolving in those 1004MC searches.
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  493. You last sentence says it all. Recency bias is a powerful thing and tends to outweigh history. This bias, of course, leads to the belief that what has happened recently will continue. It works in both directions and is prevalent in all investment types.
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  494. From an appraisal colleague, have you noticed some of the data on your 1004MC searches changing? In my region I am not seeing the actives changing, but when I include the pendings, there is a big change. Seeing none on some of the pending loads in many neighborhoods. This should show up in the closed sales data. Could be heading for standoffs in some places. Affordability walls being hit? How about your region?
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  495. Vermulion is a stock analyst. What he does not understand is that builders will reduce prices to maintain sales volume. It is the resale market which will collapse first
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  496. Involved currently with a new construction sale. Contract price is low $400s. Contract date is late December. List date was late June well over 100 DOM. Original list price was near $500k. Yes, it's happening. Property near completion. A year ago, contracts were near list price and date was either before permit pulled or very early in construction. Things are changing.
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  497. Is the $1,000 pre or post income tax?
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  498. There is no replacement for Dusty Hill unless a son if he had one.
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  499. Something really strikes me in the 2nd street. Bunch of finished homes and very few starts and mid level. Might be a new phase, but when you see few early stage units, that tells you something.
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  500. The blueprint established in 2007 to 2011, seems to be playing out, atleast in the early stage we are seeing at present. History does indeed teach.
    1
  501. Stop with the panic talk and chiding Trump supporters. This belief has waned in the public. Dems would be better served to appeal to a broader audience. Devisiveness is a 2 way street. Many are tired of both sides. Allowing males in girls bathrooms or locker rooms is abhorrent and has wider recognition than news shows will be willing to portray. Until the head comes out of the sand and wakes up, then this social belief trend will continue. Same with illegal aliens. Pendulums swing both directions. Just ask Anheiser Bush after the bud light debacle. This is a parent issue and not a partsan one.
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  502. Nice coordination with Zillow selling off and letting of 25% of workforce. This is why I blue printed a bad economy business after the last downturn. Ready to go when needed.
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  503. Orlando's regular wake up call. Hope it's actually working. Some may learn the hard way.
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  504. I am curious. You talked about house selling over appraised value. Were these the appraisals done to secure financing? And if so how did they secure the financing if the appraisals came in 200k below the contract price?
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  505. You brushed in it. Fear and survival. Once these become entrenched, the predictive data is out the window. The bull climbs up the steps but the bear jumps out the window. Sentiment is powerful.
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  506. Of course. Think about it. If the value of the property was predicated on the size of the house then a vacant lot would have no value. Also on similar lots, would a 2400 sf house have 3x the price of an 800sf house of same quality? No sir. You also have to extract out fixed items such as impact fees or infrastructure bond debt, if applicable, which obviously do not depreciate or go away.
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  507. It is as though governments are deliberately trying to send us into recession in order to hit the reset button and drive everything thing down. All this with extreme fallout ofcourse. Automotive podcasts are revealing significant changes in that industry as well. Another brick in the wall to quote pink floyd. Shades of 2006?
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  508. All possuble, but I am seeing uptick in my demand which is all related to new construction. Builders have more ability to shift to meet new market conditions than standard owners. Remember they have the ability to negotiate materials and possibly labor moving forward. Will see what the future holds. May surprise.
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  509. Since when are home inspectors expected to be cost estimators? Doesn't make sense. Really stupid if the inspector volunteered a roof estimate and should have declined if asked by the agent or buyer. Very dumb unless he/she was also an experienced roofing estimator, but probably not.
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  510. Was the dentist's name hijacked by a nut, or was the squatter actually a dentist?
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  511. Thanks for what you are doing. Pertinent well outside the Pac NW.
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  512. Totally disturbing.
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  513. One of the things that impresses me about DR Horton is their ability and willingness to meet the market. They are doing this in our area and they will continue to generate revenue when other large builders will stagnate.
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  514. Glad I am not invested in income property at present. No telling the fallout from endings of assistance, but even natural causes in place will create changes. Think big institutionals will begin to divest?
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  515. Fascinating observation about the situation in Syria. Had heard a bit but did not realize big picture. Jeff's scenario is not far fetched.
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  516. I would wonder what the developer of the site with the dig is asking to be paid for the site. There is plenty of greed on all sides to go around. There is always more to these stories than meets the eye.
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  517. Did you see KB Homes just revealed Q4 2022 cancellation rate of 68%. That is unreal.
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  518.  @joeforestandi478  experienced in services in Lakewood Ranch for many years. Many different quality levels. Price varies considerably, but very high demand there
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  519. Think is construction goes out. How many worker are affected. All the people who are impacted in a conventional sale plus all the trades people who employed. In our area of SW Florida is dominated by real estate and construction as well as tourism which also would be affected. Add to all that the people/services where those dollars are spent. Yes, when housing goes down, it effects everything.
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  520. If they had a previous homestead in Florida, then through portability, they can carry forward the save our homes benefits will carry to the new home up to the assessed value of the previous house.
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  521. Be careful on tax assumptions. Applying a % assumption may be highly inaccurate. That would only apply to Ad Valorum portions of a tax bill. Especially in new home developments there can be significant non Ad Valorum components which are fixed special assessments and do not change if value assessments decrease. I have seen these add several thousands of dollars to the property tax bill and I repeat: they do not decrease if property values go down. Buyers need to be aware of this but is easily checked by searching the tas collector,s record for any property. Just trying to be helpful for anyone's property research.
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  522. The last go around had a downturn that lasted about 3 years before bottoming. I am patient. Would rather buy on recovery after downturn completes. May or may not happen this way, no crystal ball, but am going to to wait. Dont want falling knife syndrome.
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  523. Great dose of common sense Orlando.
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  524. Also did you see Powell's comments today? Shaking stock market. Very hawkish.
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  525. The fake borrower's credentials very much in play during the last housing boom 2005+/-. Not a new thing and not limited to Canada. Happened right here in the US as well.
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  526. Cars with mandatory subscriptions? I'll pass.
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  527. Talk to Steve Daria. He sold his properties and boat and has gone into a rental. You are in good company and will prove to be smart when the smoke clears. Don't 2nd guess.
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  528. Peculiar that the feature focuses on assessment but not actual taxes. They are not the same.
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  529. All this happening in a boom economy. Imagine where it goes when we hit another recession. Crime in my area skyrocketed in the 2007 to 2010 period. Cant imagine what things there and elsewhere will look like. Sad indeed.
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  530.  @realestatemindset  no, not a realtor but involved in the circle of services in new home sales. Have reviewed about 2000 new construction contracts over last 5 or so years for many of the builders you feature. You do reveal some important points and market conditions are chaotic. Builders contract are convoluted and much unlike contracts used for resales when realtor facilitated. Typical builder contract package with all disclosures contains about 70 to 100 pages. Many things go into pricing including base price, options, premiums for site/view differences, structural incentives, closing costs incentives and sometimes buy downs. Some are contingent upon use of builder in house financing or selected closing agent. Can't really generalize. But viewers may have concluded from your video that lack of MLS listing is somehow inappropriate. This is just not so as MLS is an agent to agent marketing service and can be powerful. My guess is that if you do a follow up deed search about 30 to 40 days delayed on those properties marked as sold, you will find that the actual closed volume is consistent with your sign count. Of course, contracts can and do crumble. But, in my experience, those that do typically will find buyers subsequent
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  531. In Texas, if properties cannot be publicly researched, how is ownership or existing mortgages referenced by professionals who need this data for underwriting? Does owner provide all docs?
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  532.  @neneliberal7703  sales searches can typically be made on web sites of county property appraisers offices. For those understanding deeds, searches can be done via cleark of court web sites. These are 2 methods and both can be used to track all closed sales. MLS is a very powerful marketing tool, along with IDX data export which allows some of the MLS data to go out to Zillow, Trulia etc or be embedded into web site of numerous brokerages, but should absolutely not be used to assess market activity and hence conclusions in new home developments. This either for closed sales or for properties for sale as the results will be highly inaccurate. Unfortunately there is no public record search for available properties in new home developments. Builders typically do not list on MLS since they have on site builders sales agents. Naturally if sales slow they may indeed opt to list on MLS in order to utilize realtor participation. However the payment of additional commissions will be avoided when possible. Some builders do list a high proportion of properties on MLS. Depends upon builder but new home sales generally do not have a stated commission total which is split between listing and selling brokerages as is typically the case with conventional resales. Builder contracts are more complex than standard contracts utilized by realtors for many reasons unique to new construction such as buyer preferences in options,upgrades, materials, colors etc. There are just numerous choices made in new construction depending on the state of completion at the time of contract. Even if the house is finished and in inventory, repainting, trim work or other finish items can be changed which sometimes occurs post closing.
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  533. Citizens had a mandate several years ago to begin depopulating and it worked for awhile. Those new regulations could negative impacts but the question is: how will they enforce? Not sure how many policy holders they have, but that will be a monumental task..
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  534. The bigs will be able to weather but small builders may be in serious trouble.
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  535. Sentiment over future value changes will outweigh minor interest rate drops when it comes to buying decisions.
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  536. Builders use to term "sold" to mean no longer available which means under contract. They move the status to "closed" once that applies. It is confusing.
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  537. Wasn't the Portlad moniker a city with "Edge"? What is Seattle's?
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  538. I am ready to implement my new business model which will provide a series of services which focus on a down turned market. Really though there was about a year to go before pertinent, but the rate of change is evolving quickly. Bizarre considering how slow real estate generally moves. Sentiment can change rapidly however and appears to be. My current services my fall apart more quickly that I would like. Dinosaurs could not adapt and look what happened. Thanks for the update. Hard to keep up.
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  539. Perhaps oversimplistic, but one long term chart I have seen in the past is the long term mean house price chart. Been a while since I last saw but seems it went back several decades and also seems the slope of the line was about 7% through time with the data points scattered above or below. My guess is that the current price is well above this mean line. It also clearly showed the reversion to the mean. Typically the overshoots to the upside are followed by overshoots below. The reasons for moves are numerous through time but the moves are interesting. Perhaps you can find it and comment where current mean price fits. Yes, I know they now use median. Also, you reference subprime, but if you can find, see the proportion of foreclosure in the last cycle that were subprime. I saw this some time ago and remember is was surprisingly low. Of course, could have been the trigger but was not dominant. At some point price could be the larger determinant to the future than interest rates. Of course, interest rates are very important in creating shifts. If the rent bubble pops, this could also be a bigger factor than interest although they are inter related. Regards.
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  540. Sorry, meant "bull market is over"
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  541. Sorry about typos, damn autofill on phone.
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  542. Damn, you are a hard working guy. Arent you supposed to be on vacation?
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  543. Not sure, if you believe in downturn, why you would want to be buying. Last go around drops lasted multiple years. Seems like falling knife syndrome would be in play.
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  544. Yes, that makes sense for sure. Just keep in mind, for sake of balance, that your price per SF at a given quality level, may be more like 75 per SF if we have another big one. You and I we both through the last debacle and remember the scars. The feeling sticks with you for a long time. I also remember looking for foreclosed properties in one of our island areas after peak of the downturn and saw some listings or really nice properties with DOMs of 500 days or longer. Incomprehensible to those more recent to the game. Best of luck with your hunt.
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  545. Sounds like a law suit. What are they thinking.
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  546. Another PBS Frontline documentary, 4 parts, on YouTube called "Meltdown" clearly chronicles the events leading to the GFC. Highly recommended. Much more to the last debacle than what everyone has believed. Was multinational and not primarily due to domestic subprime lending. Will open your eyes.
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  547. Also, the NAR does not appear to understand mean reversion.
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  548. Very true
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  549. 4 to 5% is an impediment? Holly cow. Would like to know the age brackets of the respondents. If this is true and plays out in reality, we are in for a very substantial downturn. My guess is that that sentiment could change, but who knows. We are truly in uncharted market dynamics. Especially if that interest rate opinion has to do with those rates taking them out of qualification. Amazing.
    1
  550. Detached apartment units. A new official real estate type that NAR will have to adopt. Crazy.
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  551. Way too early projecting an annualized drop based on 1 month. Certainly there are forces which might lead to slowing condition and possibly downward pressure but to annualize in either direction based on one months data is not realistic or precise.
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  552. Here we go again. Next news story? Adjustables back in favor? Why is it that human nature seems to repeat every so often. So many ingredients now from the 2005 stew. I know, it's different this time. OK.
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  553. The tax Bills and especially bond debt, if applicable, will be big problem for that builder. That development looks like it's in early to mid phase.
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  554. Got pink tile and purple carpet, you dont see that often. Got to be worth more that way. Right?
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  555. Helocs will probably increase just a little as some people will become accustomed to new rates and aimed will need th money. Still way lower than credit card and not sure, but is interest tax deductible?
    1
  556. The only rub I have hard about this experiment is that the lasers required many, many times the amount of energy to produce the beams that excited the reaction. Energy produced was positive relative to the beam energy but highly negative compared to the energy utilized to power the lasers. Perhaps this can be refined.
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  557. Hey, come on over to Florida. No vax mandates and brokerage and appraisal services are going well. It's on here.
    1
  558. Late 80s to early 90s was the Savings and Loan crisis. Was with a disposition contractor who did a lot of work for the Resolution Trust Corp, a subsidiary of the FDIC. It was assigned to work out assets from failed financial institutions. Was very very large. Consisted of both real estate, personal property from offices as well as debt packages. You should look it up. The impact was certainly as large, in inflation adjusted as well as social terms, as the 2007 to 2010 period. The FIRREA acts was implement to prevent a repeat. This repeat, of course, occurred starting in 2007. No crystal ball, but we are due.
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  559.  @sterlingmarshel6299  unless you believe that history repeats, which it does have a habit of doing. Was clarifying the late 80s that reventure was referencing. Yes, it is pertinent.
    1
  560. The big winner in food stores is Aldi. My new home and on many items to quality is excellent on their brands. Takes a little selectivity but certainly doable.
    1
  561. It's a very difficult time for concerned home buyers who are in the market today. The draw for housing is understandable, but a falling knife cuts deep and painful. The thought of rising rates makes people tempted to get in now before higher. The only thing I can say is that in the 07 to 10 period, I interacted with many distressed owners who bought under circumstances very much like today. Travis is correct in his assessment of some home builders today as I work nearly exclusively in that space and am on about 5 to 7 construction sites per week and review all the contracts. Many reductions or large incentives are in play with many, but not all, homebuilders and they have sometimes have the ability to negotiate in ways which conventional private sellers cannot or wont. This is certainly a good first thing to look at if you dont mind being in large deed restricted communities. Of course this may be differentent depending upon location. Travis's characterization is accurate for many locations and going on site into these developments is a good education. You need to have boots on street to see and understand. Waiting may be best strategy, but doing research right now is best way to develop your strategy.
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  562. Some places so, others not sp much. However, given that many assets, and real estate historically, moves in cycles, then increased listings would be a logical and expected next step in the cycle.
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  563. The city with an "edge", if I remember right. Wait if/until there is a real estate fall.
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  564. Wide World of Sports. I felt sorry for that Ski Jumper guy who wiped out week after week as the "Agony of Defeat" example. But miss it
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  565. The only thing predictable it the repeating nature of human behaviours, especially economic. The rest is noise. Same game, different era, same result. Only question is when?
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  566. Allowing finance of properties with conditions such as flawed roofs and other deferred maintenance would open the door to wider buying audiences. This is currently a major impediment. Monies could be escrowed for draws to assure that roof repair or replacements post closing would occur and hence satisfy lender concerns. Clearly, something needs to be done to avoid a nation of renters.
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  567. Don't think short term rentals being forbidden in deed restrictions is really a big deal. Probably already in place in many. Rental duration controls in deed restricted communities is nothing new.
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  568. Very good work, Orlando. No crystal ball, but changes in markets in some areas are clearly underway.
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  569. Hey Orlando. I know you touched briefly on this. I think it was Travis. But would love to see a comparison of commercial real estate trend with comparison to residential. Your expertise is appreciated. Perhaps how they correlated in the last downturn (2006 to 2012) and see if this can be used today for predictive purposes moving forward. Thanks kindly. Jeff in Florida
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  570. Not "received". I meant "recovered"
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  571. Actually given the context of affordability as a function of monthly payment, then PITI needs to be considered, not just PI. I have heard that in your state, that property taxes can be exhorbitant and will certainly increase monthly payments if escrowed. Insurance is only predicated to value of structures so increases in site value of properties do not affect. As for after tax income, I only referred to income tax. Yes, interest may be tax deductible, but would not apply to the down amount. In the event that downward trend occurs, people should investigate perusing both tax and insurance reduction. Many policies have built in regular coverage increases, but in my experience, the reverse is not true. I have never been contacted by an agent in downturns suggesting a lowered replacement cost estimate to lower coverage and hence premiums. Yours points were clearly valid but the reality is even worse than just interest rate increases affected what a monthly payment can afford. Logic valid in your video for sure and many don't see it.
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  572. Negative equity growth. Viewers think "say what? what's that". Kind of like the Exlax comercials discussing "irregularity"
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  573. Just history (read, human behavior) repeating. Different characters, same game. Big Short 2.0
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  574. The ghost of hurricane Andrew is alive and well in the memories of insurance providers. Was quite the event.
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  575. Basing decisions on tax assessment data is a very fool hardy approach. Many times there are govt modifications to tax assessments who provide relief to owner occupants. Very often they are not reflective of market value and hence, changes to assessments are not accurately reflective to changes in marketable value. Strongly cautioned against.
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  576. Yep, it's pretty simple. Isn't it? Great work with clarity.
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  577. Rhodium is over 7 times the price of gold. Around 14k per oz. Palladium is slightly more valuable than gold and platinum is around 1200 per ounce. However, none of these are rare earth netals.
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  578. Travis said it! For sure right on. Schools have become social experiment labs prioritizing social narrative rather than life survival skills. Reminds me of the book Brave New World. Written so long ago but so contemporary today. One benefit of a recession is that it hits the big Reset Button and gives people some much more important to worry about. When that happens things like SJW and ESG will fade away. Similar economic trends in the past have had the same effect. Priorities definitely change.
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  579. By now we should realize that main stream media does not do their research. They frequently interview biased individuals hankering for free publicity. Happens at highest levels including CNBC and others. Of course, congress has the power to modify existing legislation, especially if they are modifying the rules rather than the statute. In fact rules can be modified by agencies rather than legislatures if the rule change does not directly conflict with the statute.
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  580. Forget having a handful of finished spec homes they cant sell at full price in a development. This is dwarfed by having several hundred vacant lots in the project with walls, tax on each lot, bond debt for the initial land prep, roads, sewer, water, gas lines, underground electrical, surveys for each lot, drainage ponds, maintenance, etc. The debt for these improvements relay on house construction sales. Multiply this by the numerous developments the big guys have. The info on the media is so imprecise it is rediculous. When sales slow, the debt due to these issues is mind boggling.
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  581. Watch out for when our Gov't defaults on treasury bonds under "emergency circumstances" they took GM out at the expense of shareholders, so think they would not screw over bond holders?
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  582. Look what happened in after hours trading tonight.
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  583. Not sure if you are aware, but the last real estate crisis started in Iceland and carried over to England prior to hitting the US. Was not an exclusively US centric event. Would strongly recommend you view the PBS Documentary "Meltdown" a 4 part series of about 45 minutes each part. Best I have seen. Even in the Big Short, the Ben Rickart character is talking with the Brownfield guys and says "Iceland is toast" easily missed but was relevant to real events. Iceland's refusal to protect bank accounts of British citizens brought those 2 countries to extreme hostility. To assume that events in other countries cannot carry over to the US would be foolhardy. No crystal ball, but watch forward events carefully. Active listings increasing in many areas. What signals a shift in real estate markets from increasing to leveling? Changes do not announce themselves in advance, but there are clues once in process. The S&L crisis which had similar affects to 12 years ago was not a subprime event. Other torpedos exist.
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  584. It's also quite possible inventory is higher yet. I am substantially involved in new construction real estate services. Not sure if the inventory comes from cumulative MLS data, but many new construction properties are not listed on MLS. One of my clients list a very small amount of properties on MLS. They do put post closing MLS records simply for record purposes. Other of my clients do similar. A better gauge of activity is permit applications. Of course, this does not distinguish homes built for inventory vs those being built to perform on a buyer contract. Both exist in my area. There is really no individual data points that can accurately show closed sales, pending sales, and properties, either available sites available or builds, or finished inventory. Materials are an issue and one builder I work with does not market or contract properties until about 60% completion of construction. It works all different ways depending upon the builder.
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  585. Thanks for sharing knowledge on financing. Very useful fills in some holes in my understanding. Given the focus on new construction, I think it might be helpful to explain the difference between construction perm loans and end close loans. I am involved almost entirely in services to new construction and it appears that outside lenders have tendency toward perm loans but builders in house financing tends to be end close loans. Might help viewers determine best strategies for new home purchases.
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  586. Is that a build to rent community? Looks like a typical PUD. Have you searched new apartment complexes to see if they are offering incentives to attract tenants? I.e. 2 months free rent with annual lease etc?
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  587. Hey Travis. Check out video on CNBC today where Bank of America declares that the housing bill market is over. Comments from CNBCs analysts have some other interesting comments.
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  588. We have areas like that here in SW Florida. I am active in about 10 different developments. Pretty much same as you are showing out west. C'mon down sometime, but will be like a carbon copy of out there.
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  589. There will always be some pent up demand which plays out in clusters. When someone can capture slightly lower interest, the pent up demand gets triggered.
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  590. Great work. Always love your straight talk.
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  591. The process and financing for those newly cleared lots may have already be in place. By process, I mean infrastructure, water, sewer, storm sewer, power, gas, street lights etc. These may very well have to be completed as bond payments on the tax. If no bonds were issued, then the tax may be a couple hundred dollars per lot. If bonds are in place then the tax on each vacant lot could be several thousand dollars. Check you tax collector's records for a couple of the vacant lots. These are generally non ad valorm special assessments and therefore are NOT proportional to the token assessed valus for the lot. Who ever owns the lots pay this, obviously. Multiply this by a couple hundred lots potentially, and you can see if there might be motivation to build out or not. Much to know about new construction to understand a builder's motivation. Most people are not aware.
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  592. I wouldn't worry about comments from some in the investment community. The certainly have the right to an opinion. Many have emotional attachment and get triggered by a different opinion. In reality no one has a crystal ball. However some, including myself, tend to see the history rhymes theory as valid. In the end you make your decisions, place your bets, and whatever happens will happen. The are no certainties, only possibilities and probabilities give the current circumstances. Current t events seem to raise the probability that further downturns are likely. Other may disagree and that is fine. Only time will tell. Grandich is out of general equities but is invested in some precious metals and uranium equities. I have followed him for a long time and he was right on cryptos, sold his uranium equities during the November peak and has now re invested in them since there has been such a large drop. His % is pretty good.
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  593. Yes, but survival will be the new success soon.
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  594. I am in Sarasota area and declines or stability is highly development dependent and different hoods are reacting unequally.
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  595. He did not want to share the spotlight. He only made passing reference to financial buyers or uranium. Yes, Sprott is the big one and should have been prominently referenced by name and their trust described.
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  596. My new construction appraisal clients are saying materials are not the big problem anymore, but services from subs are.
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  597. Brokerage and appraisal services strong in southern states. You would be welcome here.
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  598. The unthinkable only is, until it happens. When it does, it is up front and center in our thinking. In 2010, the RE prices in 2005 we hard to fathom. In early 2022, RE prices in 2010 were impossible to fathom. So what is the next step?
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  599. Apparently in Canada they had a beetle problem killing trees
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  600. Travis, I hate to say it, but the numbers and trajectory would make it logical to renew the lease. Look at history and the time it takes for real estate to get out of the falling knife period. I know it's not everything, but given the options, what would Travis in mid to late 2024 say about a decision made in early 2023.
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  601. Non sure if EVs will maintain sales in the event that recession will become widely felt. Also if China clamps down on rare earth metal exports the neo/praseodynium magnet availability will shrink dramatically. These are used for electric motors. The grid is not ready as well.
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  602. Alf cuts through mainstream narrative with a big saw. I listen to him every chance. He speaks from professional experience with real facts. Would not bet against his predictions although no one has a crystal ball. I things odds are with him.
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  603. There are striking data similarities now to 2005. Human nature following.
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  604. Will really tell when it shows up that they are selling inventories if they have been holding. Probably will do so under fictitious seller name after technical title transfers.
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  605. An improved property value is essentially the sum of the land value plus structure value. Structure can depreciate via condition or market forces such as the aluminum wiring example but also design or purpose going out of favor known as functional obsolescense. There are also economic obsolescence such as road expansion or unfavorable proximate use such as drug rehab center, landfill, high noise use or others. Obviously drop in land value is a big one too which is a market force. The sum of all determines the price in improved property.
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  606. Sorry about misspellings. Meant "Coral" above in both instances.
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  607. Could be a perfect storm for China. Real question is could effects reach the US both in terms of damage to Americans as well as Chinese investment in the US.
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  608. You ever sleep brother? Prolific.
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  609. Beware catching the falling knife.
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  610. You can easily obtain a mortgage amortization schedule on the web. Yes, it is shocking to see how it works and the early years are dominantly interest. The proportion changes constantly through the loan period. May not be such a good move to refinance if you are well into a loan. If you refinance in the first few years, then may not be bad idea. However if value of property has dropped, it may not be possible without adding cash.
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  611. It's a compounding pharmacy you are referring to. Hope your hood fares well. Be safe.
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  612. Remember what happened to contributory value of improvements such as renovations, when the downturn came? Same for other value adds such as water frontage, preserve, mountain views etc. Works well in ascending markets. New home premiums for small ponds can exceed 30 to 40k and currently is preserved at resale
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  613. If russia wanted to demolish the reactors, they could easily have done so. This was not thier goal. They wanted to take over a functional plant. It's unfortunate but they are the world wide experts in operating nuclear tech. Obviously they are planning to preserve this power source for the belief that they will run the country and its power grid.
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  614. Wait until the year over year data comes out starting in about March and through June come out. There will be some shock waves. The average person does not understand. This will be scary.
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