Youtube hearted comments of Jeffrey Deuitch (@jeffreydeuitch2146).

  1. You dont need subprime to have foreclosures. Once value drops way below loan balance, many will lose interest in making payments and ride out for couple years until foreclosed. Taxes do not drop proportional to value drop and insurance rates are high and generally dont drop unless petitioned so hold costs remain high. If income or employment drop, the decision gets made. Cash buyers bail to recoup as much as possible. It's so obvious and rooted in history.
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  2. You are national treasure. Great style and ability to send the message clear. Great humor in delivery of a serious message.
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  3. The other thing to consider about small vs large builders is that the big guys in house lending for new construction tends to be end loans rather than perm loans with draws. That is, with end loans, title transfers to the owner at final closing along with the liabilities that go with it. Perhaps Travis can do a segment to help viewers understand the difference. It is important to understand. Of course, people go with smaller custom home builders for different reasons than buying tract homes with the big guys.
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  4. Not to mention the cost of replacement of batteries when they fail. One popular model is about $16,000 to replace the batteries. Some who bought a used EV have learned this absolutely the hard way!
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  5. If you give those creeps a response, they will keep doing it. No need to respond to their jobs. Just ignore them and thus marginalize their importance. They are not worth the effort
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  6. Great video as always. Watched a couple of vintage episodes of Miami Vice this past weekend. Your videos are reminiscent of those episodes and you really do resemble Don Johnson as Crockett. You need to do a collab with someone who looks like Tubbs. That would be surreal and plug in some background music from Jan Hammer! Retro.
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  7. People would be shocked if they would realize how much of first few years payments go to nearly all interest and how little applies to principal. When you refinance, as Michael states, you are back to beginning of the amortization schedule and hence much higher proportion going to interest once again. The results in extremely high rate of interest if house sells in first few years. The things people dont understand!
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  8. Good luck with the refinance deal if values should drop. Great to bring up the refinance hazards and hope viewers will recognize the Captain Obvious moment. Glad you are helping people to understand the hazards.
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  9. Another 3 months and the YOY will be compared to last June and everybody will wonder how this read can be so high. Strange so many do not understand very basic math. Will be large if prices stay stable for next 3 months. If there are price reductions between now and then the negative YOY will be much larger. Not a difficult concept to grasp. Will hit mainstream media pretty hard and may trigger sentiment change but remains to be seen.
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  10. Imagine if genuine unemployment increases occur. There appears to be a rapidly tightening noose out there. Really feel for the young folks starting out. Have a son who is starting grad school in July. Finance major. I hope he will be able to consider home ownership at a reasonable young age. A big downturn will be the only salvation for a whole genetation of young people.
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  11. To buy at the court house steps, figuratively speaking of course, better have lots of assumptions for repairs in your bid. Also best be aware if the foreclosing property is a second position holder or other liens. Back to 06 or early 07, early foreclosures sold at very high prices. Falling knife just like buying at open market too early in the downturn. Yes, concrete in toilets and sinks occurred as well as removed appliances, stolen condensers, well pumps, removed granite tops, boxing matches with drywall, and other sabotages were common and repairs can be xexpensive. Be careful
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  12. Arent you glad you extended that lease? You may feel empowered by the time it expires. Regards. Jeff
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  13. When early YOY references start to show negative, they will fall back the Case Shiller which lags 2 months from closing which means about 3 months from contract date and hence when the agreement in price was made. Once CS shows negative, the narrative will shift and masses will take notice. Until then, people will be fed Soma.
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  14. In fairness, would need to see if there was a major renovation in that 1.4m house after the 800k purchase. But yes, I absolutely would recommend to wait. History is a pretty good teacher.
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  15. Not really familiar with the Miami market, but many of those flips in my area include a significant renovation. Was that the case with with the You Tuber's property? The gain may not be as high % as it appears. Renovation costs can be quite substantial. Great work as always
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  16. Wow. They have that much finished, unsold inventory. That's crazy. Big upfront investment. Here in Florida they usually build after contracting or contracting begins around 50% completion. No doubt, there will be downward pressure there in Austin if those are unsold. Maybe happening in other cities.
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  17. Almost 15%. Holly cow. As for your past decisions, don't refer to them as bad decisions. Given the market at the time, it was not a bad decision. You would have needed a crystal ball to see the future. I would describe as unfortunate but judgement was likely sound. If you repeated in recent time, given your past experience, that would be a bad decision. In my little neck of woods here in SW Fl., I am seeing my orders go from consistent 10 to at per week get reduced to 2 to 3 just over past few weeks. Not just seasonal since past summer was quite busy. Mostly services to new construction. Also seeing broadcast RFPs from numerous sources has nearly disappeared from about 20 or per week. No conclusions just yet, but preparing shift to distressed property services which should emerge in upcoming months. Seen this dance before. Evolve or go extinct. Not sure about trend reversal in event of Fed pivot. Would not bet on it. Regards.
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  18. Foreclosure activity should pick up which will lead to increased inventory. That particular inventory is held by motivated sellers. That needs to be factored into anyone's prediction for future outlook. Cash buyers will likely predominate at lowered price since the higher rates will exclude those needing financing
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  19. A current low interest rate on someone's mortgage is one thing. A falling knife is another.
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  20. History has an echo. The "reduced appreciation but no price decline" was a very persistent mantra in 2005. Same as in last year. Saw the similar wreakage in late 80s. Led to complete destruction of the Savings and Loan industry which was the largest source of mortgages previously.
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  21. Insurance premium increases could be partially offset if construction costs go out and result in lowered replacement cost. If this happens the contract your agent and have a new replacement cost estimate. If still high, can be contested by getting an estimate from a builder or construction estimator. In a homeowner's policy, there is an assumption that personal property has a value of 50% of the structure value. This may be true in some cases, but would guess it is not true in most. The base rate for personal property coverage tends to be higher than that for the structure which exasperated total premium changed. Talk to your agent to determine what cranks can be turned to minimize premiums. I have done this many times and its easier than you might guess. Lender may call the shots however so would need to check with them as well. Sometimes HOAs can also specify.
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  22. Last I looked, the government backed NFIP only covered residential structures to 250k and had somewhat limited things covered. Overage would need to covered by very expensive private insurance. No NFIP in COBRA zones. Buyers need to be aware before offering on property.
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  23. Data is data until the run for the exits commences. Seen this dance before. Yes, willing buyers, especially if cash, will gain significant leverage and will apply it.
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  24. Thanks for the lending lesson. Very inrormative.
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  25. What is the market cap comparison? That would be more meaningful.
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  26. The legislative measures you describe are really not bad in principal. There were similar in the 06 to 2010 period. The market eventually took care of itself. Perhaps it just an indication of where we are on the curve. Not draconian like what blue states are doing. Will be interesting to see if Floida shift to negative net migration like what happened in last go around. Seems unlikely, but was also incomprehensible in last go around. As far as encouraging developers to build low cost housing, the cost of construction makes this unlikley to be offset by tax credits.
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  27. No question you will see those Case Schiller 12 month figures change radically in next several months. References data that is about 3 months old and compares to 12 months previous. Already dropped from about 21% to most recent read of 15 handle in past 4 reads. This is for the nationwide figure. If it did not lag, the figure would likely lower for the current read. In another 6 months reads, we could see negative. Then CNBC and other mainstream media will be reporting and confidence will really shift.
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  28. Despite the "different this time" narrative, it is amazing how similar the chain of events is unfolding.
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  29. The cure for high prices is high prices. Takes some time however. History has shown this in past and may in future. Can't bet on anything, but trajectory is changing. Big question is what is future trajectory? It's not about what assets you buy but the timing under which you own them. Therefore look at history, see where we are on the cycle, and see how others capitalized in the past.
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  30. If you are buying an 80 year old home, you should have inspections from engineers and by the individual trades. I.e. electrical, roofers, plumbers etc. It is out of league for most general purpose home inspectors.
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  31. Just had to reference to new Case Schiller 12 month national index. Reports 11.9% or so increase. That's about 5 straight monthly declines. Of course some will confuse this with an appreciating market, but this index is widely referenced without understanding its lag time or true meaning in today's market.. Imagine the shock in a few months when it goes negative and then about next June or so when the YOY references against the May to June 2022 prices. This may really drive hysteria in the masses who don't know how to analyze it correctly. Complete reversal and will indicate very rapid depreciation rate even though the actual rate will not be as rapid. Mainstream media will definitely have some explaining to do.
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  32. Taxes in Florida for main residence protected by Saves Our Homes Act. Does not apply to second homes, land, or commercial property.
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  33. Quite the pickle for remote workers.
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  34. More than homestead tax exemptions, she was beneficiary of save our homes act which also pertains only to homestead. Perhaps that was what your referring to.
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  35. Keep in mind too that after 60 days vacant, a HO policy will not cover. A replacement policy Carrie's a much higher premium. Therefore the leverage against the owner grows substantially.
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  36. All those things combined with the potential for a general RE downturn. It's getting concerning.
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  37. If rents collapse, investors will hibernate.
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  38. yes, I would offer a bit low considering what may happen over next several months. Beware the falling knife.
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  39. Once the velocity of money through the economy slows you will see changes.
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  40. Hey Travis. A quick bit of data I have been meaning to research but haven't gotten around to, was addressed in Reventure's new video. You might want to check out. Specifically he went back to see what happened in the GFC when the Fed pivoted and started easing. Prices continued to decline for a lengthy period. I have always been a bit skeptical that an upcoming pivot would resurge real RE. Once economics take big downturn momentum tends to continue. Anyhow, you may want to check that video out. Of course, the big institutional buyers were not a factor then so could be different this time, but the historical prescedent is not for recovery upon pivot. Time will tell.
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  41. Would not use MLS listing as a function of sizing market. Here in Florida, the vast majority of new construction are not listed on MLS. It is increasing a bit as realtors are more welcomed if sales slow. Sometimes they are placed on MLS after they are sold for recording purposes only.
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  42. One of the first things you learn in studying water intusion issues is that protrusions in roofing is the highest hazard causes. This was one of the first things I thought about when rooftop solar started hitting the market. Imagine how they complicate re roofing projects. I personally would never do them.
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  43. Remember there was very high appreciation from Jan to about june to August 2022. YOY not telling an accurate picture. Much data comes from MLS and much of new construction is not on MLS. Even the turvis tumbler factory store here near Venice has a "up to 50% off" 4 day sale going on now. Truly a sign of economic times!
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  44. Prices already too high. Any inflation will tighten the noose. If housing goes, everything goes and the reset button gets pushed with massive demand destruction for everything. Price reductions will prevail and then the fear of, and reality will be deflation. The cure for high prices is high prices. If real estate can go down in price, other things can as well.
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  45. No doubt if cash flow reduces and returns fall below the 10 year rate, it can move markets in a big way, especially if the outlook is not optimistic. When the sentiment shifts, buyer behaviour amongst investors can change substantially
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  46. Something to know about taxes is that they are NOT flexibly tied to value. They are tied to municipal budgets. If property values fall dramatically, the rate of taxation can increase so dollars are sufficient to cover these budgets. These are called "roll backs". Call your local tax collectors office to see how it works in your area. The value down=taxes down assumption is not valid. Budgets have to reduce to allow your taxes to reduce.
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  47. Big recessions have a way of hitting the "reset" button. It brings things back into homeostasis. Will probably get here sooner than later. Then things become affordable again. Painful, but occurs when stretching the system breaks it. Has happened before and will again. Pendulum swings one way then back. I am preparing now. Saw those who benefitted in the last go around.
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  48. I think one more lease extension might be in the works for you. Glad you are talking "price" now rather than equity rise or loss. I think first timers may have not understood what you meant. Things are going to get interesting after midterms. Bad for my primary service but will benefit my "bad economy" services i have ready to implement, albeit after some period of downturn. Must have contingencies in place.
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  49. Midterms only a few days away. Things about to get interesting.
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  50. Glad to see you hook up with Steve, he is in my market area and sometimes speaks to our local issues. SW Florida was heavily affected in last downturn
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  51. Before Dodd-Frank, which addressed issue arising from the GFC, there was FIRREA which arose out of the 87 to 93 period which wrecked the entire Savings and Loan industry which was the primary source of mortgage loans. This acronym stood for Financial Institutions Reform and Recovery Enforcement Act. It was implemented to prevent a repeat of that period which also was real estate based. How well did it work? 12 or so years later we entered the GFC. Now, here we are again about another 12 years with the same apparent circumstances. Different this time? Or maybe 3rd time a charm. Be careful out there. Regards
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  52. Many reason why volume increased. may be result of seller capitulation and price drop combined with slight rate drop.
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  53. EF has potential for multiple income streams, which is a good feature. Also has a good listing. The mill will be essential for many of the newer hard rock explorers. They will absolutely be reliant on EF if they wish to get cake in the can. EF will be able to name their price unless Shootaring will get underway but that would be pretty far into the future. In new to mid term, White Mesa is it.
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  54. Not ot be a pinhead, just for correctness. The town of Cape Coral, Florida is pronounced Coral as in Coral reef. Always good info in the podcast and the future will be interesting. Have a great weekend. Not shark fishing this weekend, but saw a monster Snook under my dock the other day. Pretty good fishing in its own right. We have sharks too.
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  55. Some of the professions you reference have license requirements which necessitate education requirements. To be an appraiser now has some education requirements.
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  56. One thing not covered was the approach was to watch the little guys historically and see how they reacted when the previous catalysts hit. In other words what happened when the tide came in. Not all reacted the same, but many of the shitcos out performed the big guys when the runs came. I have applied many scenarios so have the whole rainbow approach. She brought up niobium but did not mention the when vanadium had it's big run because China mandated strengthened rebar, niobium found demand because to had the same properties as vanadium and was cheaper. Once this occured, vanadium prices came back down. May not have good future as it appears that construction in China may be falling off.
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  57. Keep the glasses, makes you look right out of Miami Vice.
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  58. The gap is because price is capitalized to income. This is why prices go down quickly once rents drop, especially if organic price appreciation stagnates or drops. It's a perfect storm when that happens.
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  59. Wow, 7 days a week Travis. Take a vacation Bro. Come to Florida. Will show you new construction in depth here and then to a local pier, widely famous for shark fishing. The beach there is known as the "black beach" due to the quantity of sharks teeth found there. Dont burn out
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  60. Very few of the same models of house sell for same price. In new home construction, there can be an extreme difference in upgrades and options as well as the site orientation on ponds, preserves etc. I have seen new construction contracts on a home with a $450k base price and the purchasers has contracted for an additional 250k in options. Nearly impossible to make apples for apples comparison. I work extensively in new home developments and see every contract for these houses.
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  61. Not only should your investment analysis include those you mentioned, but also a buffer for the possibility that rents can drop, especially if the economy turns down and unemployment increases.
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  62. If they had a previous homestead in Florida, then through portability, they can carry forward the save our homes benefits will carry to the new home up to the assessed value of the previous house.
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  63. Citizens had a mandate several years ago to begin depopulating and it worked for awhile. Those new regulations could negative impacts but the question is: how will they enforce? Not sure how many policy holders they have, but that will be a monumental task..
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  64. Also, the NAR does not appear to understand mean reversion.
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  65. Hey Orlando. I know you touched briefly on this. I think it was Travis. But would love to see a comparison of commercial real estate trend with comparison to residential. Your expertise is appreciated. Perhaps how they correlated in the last downturn (2006 to 2012) and see if this can be used today for predictive purposes moving forward. Thanks kindly. Jeff in Florida
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  66. You ever sleep brother? Prolific.
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