Comments by "HKim0072" (@HKim0072) on "China Observer" channel.

  1. As an American, I've always been embarrassed because I know we can have a bad reputation as tourists. But, we are choir boys compared to CCP China. And, my opinions were formed over a decade about this. People need to realize that you are a guest when traveling to another country and have no special rights.
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  2. Man, they stole our designs / schematics and they still can't figure it out, lol.
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  3. If they are doing this to the Han Chinese, just imagine what they are doing to the Uyghurs and people in Tibet.
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  4. Congrats Xi! I called this months ago. It's the worst possible scenario. Inflation in necessities and deflation in discretionary goods. The higher prices in necessities is crushing discretionary items even more. Economies run off discretionary purchases.
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  5. Only going to get worse. Becomes a domino effect that is nearly irreversible. - Real estate lower - Exports lower - Government spending nearly maxed out All that will result in lower consumer spending.
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  6. My man lucked out. Dude saved himself a lifetime of bloodsucking. Better to happen before the wedding than after.
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  7. Don't ever let anyone compare this to Japan. Japan peaked at 5.5% unemployment. But, Pooh Bear will change the numbers and won't report higher than 6%.
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  8. I’ve never heard of diplomatic immunity in your home country. Hint: it doesn’t exist in normal countries
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  9. That really is the key. Get a bunch of foreign people together and they'll converse in English. It's the only language in the world that crosses over like this.
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  10. This is what you call a death spiral. Not enough tax revenue, so salaries are cut. People spend less and even less tax revenue.
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  11. lol, the CCP literally built a sand castle to try to hold back the water. These people never played at the beach as a kid.
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  12. When China was still doing the peasant thing, we were buying Sony Walkmans and Nintendo. Anyone that is GenX has great fondness for Japanese products.
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  13. Just to clear up the Japanese part: there was a Japanese TV crew in the area earlier. Dude just thought it was a similar crew.
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  14. Talk about a 180 degree turn. Massive floods with dam releases to dried up rivers.
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  15. Probably the last time that HK people can criticize the governments. Wouldn't be surprised if criticizing the bridge falls under the new national security law.
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  16. However, in Japan — where sleek, high-speed trains are famous for arrivals and departures that you could set your watch by — leaving a station just 25 seconds early is nothing short of a disgrace. That is what happened earlier this month at Notogawa Station in the central Shiga Prefecture, when a train mistakenly pulled away from the platform almost a half-minute ahead of schedule – at 7:11:35 a.m. instead of 7:12. "The great inconvenience we placed upon our customers was truly inexcusable," Japan Railways said in a statement about the May 11 incident involving a Shinkansen bullet train.
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  17. That's why the Soviets were very formidable. They had their own design / engineering creativity unlike the Chinese.
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  18. Even with quality materials and expert engineering / construction standards, extreme hot / cold weather will kill infrastructure / buildings. Good luck with the tofu dreg ones.
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  19. It's so crazy what Pooh Bear implemented in a matter of 2 years: Aug '20: 3 red lines for real estate developers Nov '20: Went after tech companies / Alibaba Jul '21: crackdown on private education companies 2022: hard lockdowns All while they were doing zero covid. Middle school educated Pooh Bear was a genius!
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  20. lol, IBM hasn’t been on the cutting edge in decades. Pooh Bear was stealing 2nd rate tech and research,
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  21. “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” -Xi
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  22. What people don't understand is there are many multiples of companies that are "experts" in their contribution to building a fab. It's not that China has to replicate TSMC, they have to replicate every single company in the pipeline that contributes to the process.
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  23. Was listening to a podcast about Russia and their fertility rate. Russia raised the divorce fees nearly 10x, lol. I wonder if China will do something similar.
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  24. I’m no military strategist, but sure seems silly to have your maintenance area thousands of miles from your home port.
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  25. Going from unfinished real estate to unfinished cars, lol.
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  26. lol, 3000 Euros for that garbage. Did they legalize weed in China?
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  27. These are just regular laborers. Pretty silly for Brazil to give them work visas.
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  28. The one thing that is never mentioned is "greed" of Chinese consumers. They were searching for 50-100bps extra yield and got screwed. If someone is offering extra yield, it's usually shady and risky. I was always amused in the past when the Japanese would bank with the postal system (now mostly privatized) with hyper low yields. Then did it because they are a conservative society and value safety over yield.
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  29. Japanese are real fans. They looked at his playing history for the past 6 months and realized that Messi had been struggling with soft tissue injuries. Dude literally had to leave the match against Brazil a few months earlier.
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  30. This makes no sense. In the US, you have to pay the custodian for storage. You don't want to make interest on your gold. You want safe keeping. Obviously, the company was using the gold as collateral and taking out loans. That's why they are paying yield. Chinese people have no common sense.
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  31. Pooh Bear should have taken a few economics classes. Strong healthy economies run off discretionary purchases. Getting people to buy unnecessary goods and services creates jobs.
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  32. lol, no wonder why Pooh Bear is always accusing the US of starting / supporting protests in HK. Total projection and they assume the US is using the same tactics.
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  33. 7:35 This is why I never understood people getting excited about the speed of Chinese construction. Even a novice like me knows that you need time for materials to settle / cure for strength.
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  34. Japan is the only place I would trust in Asia. Even stuff in Korea can get sketchy, but much better than a decade+ ago.
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  35. I know it was a while ago, but Obama eating in a small restaurant in Vietnam was important. Common people want their leaders to be regular people, accessible and understand their lives. I doubt the average Vietnamese wants the Xi model.
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  36. In the US, expiration dates mean nothing. You can eat stuff way past. In CCP China, I'd be worried, lol.
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  37. Stock market is a side show. Bond market is the bigger issue. CCP is in a pickle. They have to keep rates low to stimulate the economy, but who wants crappy CCP bonds when they are yielding at least 100bps less than US. So that only leaves domestic buyers for their bonds. Home sales are a disaster and now they are starting price deflation. Here is some random data: - China's govt bond yield falls, treasury futures jump on hopes of more monetary easing. China's 10-year govt #bond yield fell to 2.68%, a new low since Nov 11, 2022. - Second-hand #home transactions in China's capital #Beijing slid 37.3% m/m in May, down 41.8% from March - Prices in #China’s oil, coal, metal industries declined at faster pace in May - NBS
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  38. Netflix is bigger than any Chinese internet company except Tencent. Why? It’s a worldwide company. Now, Chinese developers have to create and maintain 3 different OS for a truncated market.
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  39. Next step: HK dollar stops getting pegged to the dollar and gets pegged to the yuan Next step^2: HK dollar gets renamed to the HK yuan
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  40. The video game thing is just noise. The bigger issue is that it reinforces the herky-jerky nature of the CCP. They are making it uninvestable for foreign businesses because "rules" are becoming more unpredictable.
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  41. Pooh Bear found 1 trillion+ USD to invest outside of China. I'm sure money bags Pooh Bear can find another 1 trillion USD to invest into China.
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  42. Orwell's Animal Farm seems very appropriate: " All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others"
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  43. Saw a video from Japan's NHK about an Indonesia worker. Guy and his wife had good jobs "relatively". Guy had been working for 20+ years in a factory and saved up enough to buy a house. Then, the factory shutdown and was likely due to the inflow of cheap Chinese products. Now, the dude is making 1/5 of his prior salary. Had to move out and rent out the house to coverage the mortgage.
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  44. lol, they stole land from farmers for real estate development and now they are reversing it.
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  45. If you slow-mo it, it's not the drivers fault. Explosion happened before the truck hit the wall. It looks like either (1) explosion first or (2) someone accidently PIT'd the truck and cause the explosion. Or I'm completely wrong and it's a vehicle behind the truck on the video exploded.
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  46. 14:22 this is what the CCP doesn't get. They always try to make one sided deals. A mutual beneficial relationship is deemed as a loss for them. People think China plays the long game, but it's really Japan. Their investments in SE Asia are never as loud as China, but measured and thoughtful.
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  47. They saw combat in South Sudan as UN peacekeepers. Was a total sh**show.
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  48. Just a reminder: there is no such thing as personal bankruptcy / protections in China.
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  49. Pooh Bear is getting a lesson in Econ 101. Unfortunately, China got the guy who was living in the rural area until 23 and still doesn't understand the multiplier effect. Multiplier effect ain't a one way street. It works both ways.
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  50. All the new cars have customized electronics and software. People are silly for buying cars from random companies. Basically, the very expensive version of a phone brick.
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  51. Wait, they didn't launch fighter jets to intercept? Or, launch their own drones?
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  52. The most valuable real estate property would be a Japanese engineering / construction firm entering the market with imported Japanese materials and using all Japanese contractors. The Chinese would flock to those type of properties.
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  53. Japan's modern industrialization has been for 70+ years. Korea's has been for 50+ years. China's has been for 30-40 years. Shoved too much growth into a small time period and didn't allow for things to happen naturally. Lots of unintended consequences.
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  54. If the average Chinese person could go to Japan and see how clean, orderly and safe everything is in Japanese society, they would want to move there immediately and switch nationalities.
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  55. Said this a month or so ago: worst possible scenario would be inflation for necessities and deflation for discretionary items.
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  56. This is the equivalent of banning cars and making everyone walk.
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  57. Gutter oil = pride of CCP China Sushi = hurts my feelings
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  58. Yeap, said it in the past. If the average Chinese person knew about the quality of life in Japanese society, they would beg to become Japanese citizens.
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  59. Pooh Bear is finding out that the multiplier effect works equally well in the reverse direction. Works just the same negatively. (I'd argue it's an even worse flow through.)
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  60. Fun Fact: the US Census department is the sub-department under Commerce that publishes import-export data with China. They publish it monthly with 1-2 month lag. I tried to find the EU equivalent website, but couldn't find it easily. Here are the US imports numbers from China. Really have to look at a multi-year numbers as a base for comparisons. Pandemic screwed things up. Short version: 1- US imports from China are back to 2013-2014 levels (nominal comparison) 2- US imports started to drop in Oct '22, but Nov '22 was the big decline. Will be key to watch the Nov '23 monthly number. (US Imports from China USD Jan-May time period) 2023 168,631 2022 222,839 2021 188,475 2020 142,208 2019 178,932 2018 205,006 2017 187,481 2016 173,440 2015 186,494 2014 175,137 2013 166,980 2012 161,908 2011 148,590
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  61. This is why the CCP won't let the big real estate developers go into bankruptcy. Assets have 2 lien holders and the banks will always get senior status. Average people will be left holding the bag.
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  62. No barrier to entry. No differentiation in the market. And, the problem with China is something is successful, it gets copied and oversaturated. Me, I'm loyal to a few places and ones that are locally owned.
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  63. Psst, I guarantee the banks haven't updated all the mortgages that are underwater with negative equity.
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  64. If Pooh Bear would have taken a basic economics class, he would have learned about the multiplier effect.
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  65. Congrats Chairman Xi! Pooh Bear has almost reached Mao status. Unfortunately for him, it’s harder to hide the sh**show in modern times.
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  66. One of the greatest executions of soft power translating into practical benefits. The combination of immigrants with food and more recently music and television has laid the groundwork for positive acceptance by the US. Unlike Japan in the '80s, it's been an easier path for Korean products.
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  67. When does Pooh Bear have a “heart attack by the pool”?
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  68. The last few months, I was really curious about this segment. Going out to the movies is one tier above going out to restaurants from a discretionary perspective. People have to eat even if it's more expensive food. No one has to go to a movie to live.
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  69. Ok, let's use our brains a bit... - Real estate collapsing. Bond valuations have gone to zero for many companies - Stock market flat - Government bonds have increased in value due to interest rates dropping Now, these trusts are "promising" returns 2x the government yield. They have to be in risky assets. It's just basic math they were in real estate or real estate bonds.
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  70. lol, all these new foreign buyers look at the fair as a paid vacation. No real interest. Western buyers don't waste their time with trips if they don't want to buy. Travel is seen as a hassle.
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  71. That's a really old bill too. Even the 2009 series has the blue vertical security stripe on it.
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  72. Pooh Bear and the internal security department don’t view these people as a threat. They’ve always been dirt poor and somehow gotten by.
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  73. It's starting to look like Japan's lost decade.
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  74. The term isn’t complicated. It’s called “house poor”.
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  75. Do these Little Pinks realize that Messi turned down $1.5B / 3 year contract to play in Saudi Arabia because his wife wanted to live in Miami rather than The Kingdom?
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  76. If I was teenager playing Sim City like Pooh Bear, I'd institute a 20% internet shopping tax. Try to even the playing field for brick and mortar.
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  77. The even weirder part of CPI vs PPI is...housing. In the US, 30% of CPI is housing. PPI doesn't have a housing component. Obviously, housing is falling dramatically in CCP China right now. It would be really really hard for CPI to be higher with housing costs falling. note: China's CPI is a black box. Have no idea what % they assign for housing in CPI.
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  78. This is why government / central banks freak out a bit when recessions happen. It's very hard to reverse the domino effect. Have to react fast and aggressive or things get out of hand.
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  79. 1:38 Employees have to be checked when they leave? Heck no. I'm going to take equipment / furniture that is equivalent to 2 months salary. Chinese people are weird. People in the States will be barging the doors down if our direct deposit is even 1 day late. People got bills to pay.
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  80. That’s the difference in the US. If you get laid off and you are a tech worker, you can easily get a job at a non-tech company or even government.
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  81. Unrelated: Seems like a Korean robot committed suicide A civil servant robot working for a council in South Korea was found unresponsive after apparently throwing itself down a flight of stairs, with locals now mourning the country's first robot suicide.
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  82. This is 10th time Pooh Bear has been absent from the public for an extended period (making up the number). I wouldn't hold your breath.
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  83. Parasites to the globe. I see why the local bento shops are really popular on the Japanese videos. And, the prices are nuts. 1 kg bento is around $6-7 max. Likely, those bentos were going to convenience stores.
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  84. In theory, high inflation will self correct. Prices get too high and people buy less. Demand lowers and brings inflation lower. Deflation is a total death spiral. Can’t self correct without some type of external fix.
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  85. US is getting crushed with the immediate less need for commercial buildings as well. The biggest issue with CCP China in commercial vs residential real estate: commercial companies can go bankrupt and stiff the banks with the loans. Chinese chives citizens can't discharge their debt and have to pay for eternity. The commercial real estate market is a way bigger risk to the financial system.
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  86. Man, losing high paying white collar jobs ie law firms is devastating. They spend lavishly with clients. Also, just imagine the little things like the people that cleaned the offices, dry cleaners and places they ordered food for lunch.
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  87.  @edwardfletcher7790  Dude - you serious? You think militaries send in random troops for peacekeeping missions. Just look at US history. US sent Marines into Haiti. And, Somalia. You send some of your better troops because it's an international mission. Somalia is a good example even though it was direct action against Americans. The Chinese were the sideshow in Sudan.
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  88. The ironic part is CCP China is always touting its speed in building infrastructure. So instead of building it closer to demand, they do the exact opposite. The "smart" play would take advantage of its supposed efficient building timeframes to maximize usage.
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  89. Not to mention that high temperatures / steam probably isn't the best for the phone components. A sauna for a phone!
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  90. Weird that Kia was so generous.
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  91. It's the sheer numbers. That's the CCP's advantage. Just to overwhelm Taiwan with numbers before help can arrive. (not saying it would be successful)
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  92. The slow bleed is the worst. In 2008, my former company was afraid of the unknown, but our numbers were never terrible. I ran the department responsible for revenue, so I never felt uneasy because I had full visibility and things weren't bad. After 2009, we felt comfortable enough to hire / give raises again. Basically, about 1.5 years of belt tightening just in case. China keeps tightening slowly and no one knows where the bottom is. Realistically, they've been in a recession for at least 1 year now and no real stimulus. It's mind boggling.
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  93. 3 course meal and three times a day of bitterness. Thanks Pooh Bear!
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  94. US is pretty strict with single females due to prostitution / human trafficking. My relative from Asia was questioned for an extended period of time even though its a visa free country to the US and she was staying with me.
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  95.  @SeanHenrichs  I'm Korean and have gotten questioned about my nationality / ethnicity my whole life. Relax dude. You really expect some British dude to be able to notice the difference between East Asians?
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  96. hahahah, this is the best system ever. - charge low prices that make no profit and little profit for the supplier - boost profit margins by "fining" the supplier to make profit and large margins Pooh Bear is a genius. Socialism with Chinese characteristics? Sounds like capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
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  97.  @arnoldmags1996  It's mathematically impossible. RE is 25% of the economy and is down at least -20%. That means everything else has to be up 7% just to get to a flat GDP. That's ain't happening. Minimally, they are -5% GDP, but probably closer to -10%.
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  98. Reminds of when Russia started selling off State assets. It's how Russia established their oligarch system.
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  99. lol, no way are those spicy strips made of real meat.
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  100. Live commerce has to be the most inefficient way to shop. It's recycling the old QVC model. Man, I remember when I didn't have cable and they would have the TV shopping on late night on the UHF channels.
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  101. Dumb question: do Chinese students not do internships? Graduated a while ago, but even I started thinking about my future in my junior year. Quit my restaurant part time job and took worst paying research position in the finance department at college. Ended up parlaying into a job with a local CFP for summer + senior year.
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  102. Costco has a team of people working hard to ensure quality and the lowest price. Don’t tell me some random people can replicate that process. Chinese people only learned the bad parts of capitalism. Brands still mean something in the US. Maybe a bit less to the newer generation.
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  103. What a disaster. All these big tech companies have killed small businesses and related jobs. And, now they are firing their own people. Quick glance: NTES has 15B in cash on the balance sheet and generates 3-4B in free cash flow a year. And, this is the difference between small businesses and publicly traded companies. Small businesses will run less efficiently and carry more jobs. These big companies will slice jobs all the time.
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  104. lol, the forced closure of Lotte back in 2017-18 saved them tons of money. They probably sold their buildings / leases near the highs and didn’t have to take losses during the pandemic.
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  105. This isn't his first rodeo. They believed their own smoke and thought all Arabs / Muslims love China.
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  106. I've been to Korea many times and there are A LOT of condo buildings. Rows and rows of identical buildings in clusters which isn't something you'd see in the US. And, you do a little digging. Many of them are built by the big chaebols while others are built by real estate development companies. The building I lived in Daegu was called, "Hyundai Hyperion". Seems a big of overdominance, but to a degree it's a safeguard in quality. The big conglomerates need to deliver good quality projects or it will hurt their brand in other areas of business. CCP China has no such safeguards.
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  107. The commercial real estate will create way more tangible problems for banks than the residential side. Ordinary Chinese citizens can’t walk away from their mortgage easily. Defaults on commercial will immediately hit the banks NPL. And if standard mark to market accounting rules apply, all these assets need to be written down on someone’s balance sheet at some point.
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  108. umm, no one is spending money though. No jobs are getting created by people going to Chengdu.
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  109. I bet Pooh Bear's family sold their properties years ago.
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  110. Don't want to give them any ideas, but they should be trading with Russia in these brand name cars.
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  111. This has been a trend in the US for years now. Not sure why it's some type of surprise. Sometimes, it's just odd that China thinks they can escape trends ie malls were dying in the US for years, but China kept expanding. Cord cutting and eyeballs on internet platforms instead of cable / terrestrial TV has been happening for 10+ years in the US.
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  112. Love it. Everyone is trying to scam each other. The scammers become the scamees. It's one big circular scamfest. Peoples Republic of Scamville.
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  113. 16:14 Dude is stuck in the old CCP economy. Only so many cars and houses people can buy in a 7-10 year period. People can go on trips 2-4 times a year. And, this is the problem with the CCP economy. Money isn't flowing.
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  114. Really? This isn't the first crackdown. They put a limit on the hours played per week a while ago (for minors).
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  115. Samsung saw the writing on the wall much earlier. They started to move their productions in the early 2010s.
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  116. I find it quite amusing that Daddy Xi decided to dump a massive amount of money into another "new" city west of Tainjin. I'm only a simpleton, but wouldn't it make sense just to build up the older city that needed investment? They are both 100km away from Beijing.
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  117. Zeihan’s analysis makes sense. This isn’t the real carrier, but the test carrier to see if they could manufacture a carrier from the ground up. The last one was to see if they could copy old Soviet designs. The next one will be the one to evaluate.
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  118. Basically, it's the multiplier effect. Its one of the first concepts you learn in Econ 101. Works both ways. $1 less in spending isn't just $1. It rips through the whole economy. You can't have 25% of your GDP down -20% or more and not fix or combat it. Real estate has been trending lower for a year now (maybe longer. Can't remember when new home sales started plummeting). Was easy just to say it was the lockdowns last year. But, really it was real estate dragging everything lower.
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  119. While I think California's fast food wage law is stupid, I think people in CCP China would be shocked to know that fast food workers make 1,150 yuan per day for an 8 hour shift.
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  120. Basically going to be a dual hit: a terrible economy and births falling off a cliff. Going to see huge hits in anything kid related in the next 5-10 years.
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  121. This is the reality when CCP China has an average income is around 12K USD. The US has huge issues with inequity, but there are a lot of random jobs that put people / families in the middle class. Walmart managers can make 130K USD with a bonus that can triple the salary. Average full time UPS person is making 100K USD now. CCP just doesn't have the same paths for the common folk.
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  122. It's a good thing their population hasn't peaked and incomes haven't stagnated. That would be a massive waste of resources.
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  123. A bit weird. You'd think they would have 100 different preset iterations of attacking Taiwan by now.
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  124. Great, you studied books for an extra 2 years and have zero work experience. Congrats!
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  125. Australia?
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  126. Welcome to the death / downward spiral. 10 years from now, HK people will wonder where are all the jobs / businesses are shut down. If you want to keep your standard of living, you have to shop in your local area.
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  127. Someone isn’t passing the info to Winnie the Pooh. I’m going to assume that someone sees the GST / VAT collection numbers and is hiding the data.
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  128. The one good thing about HK still. You can trust their data. Maybe not in 10 or 20 years. But, they still have enough entrenched bureaucrats that won't fake data.
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  129. Just look at the Saudis. Their swap line is a measly $7 billion (50B yuan) with CCP China. That's peanuts. Do you think the LIV tour players accept yuan as their cash prize? or the imported Soccer / Football players? And, the bigger issue is what do you do with the yuan? Invest in tofu dreg real estate? buy stocks on the SSE? or some CCP bonds that are yielding 200 bps lower than UST?
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  130. It’s funny how different economies are. My Dad taught middle school English for 30 years. He had 2 Master’s degrees. After retiring from teaching, he was an editor at a publishing company. Perfect job to take advantage of his skill set. His boss was decades younger.
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  131. Hard to stock up on vegetables, but you have to crazy not to keep a 2+ week supply of food if you are a resident of any area in China.
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  132. lol, the food delivery company just reported earnings. They doubled their corporate profits.
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  133. I know Lai gets a lot of attention, but the VP is someone that was made in a lab to get Pooh Bear angry. Hsiao Bi-khim (VP) was born in Japan and her Mom is Anerican. Her Dad was born in Taiwan and focused on religious studies his entire life. Was an ordained minister. Long history of working with Japan and the US. Rev. Hsiao was an ardent supporter of human rights, democracy and freedom, and a faithful participant in the ecumenical church, having first been ordained as a minister in the Presbyterian Church in Taiwan. And even her white American mother learned and spoke Taiwanese. Most recently, she was the Taiwan representative to the US.
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  134. I will re-up my prior opinion. It’s the most inefficient form of shopping. There was a reason this type of shopping was shown in the middle of the night. Just weird how society goes backwards when better methods are available.
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  135. D E F L A T I O N
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  136. It's just math. I've been doing the calculations for a year now. Real estate has been -20% for a while now. That's 25% of their GDP. -20% = -5% hit to GDP -25% = -6.2% hit to GDP -30% = -7.5% hit to GDP Then add in less exports. Less industrial jobs. Less foreign investment. Only thing that might be up is government spending. The only "positive"...is they are starting to lap bad numbers, lol. Since GDP is a year over year number, the negative change won't be as bad. Edit: oh yeah, just as a reference point, US GDP was down -2.9% in 2009. And, everything was going down the drain.
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  137.  @onebridge7231  lol, taxing land has been around for centuries. The ancient Romans had two classes of taxes: the tributa and the vectigalia. Tributa included the tributum soli (a land tax) and the tributum capitis (a poll tax).
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  138. It was always so clear cut to me when everyone is quoting that real estate was 25% of GDP and 70% of household wealth. When new home sales started to downtrend by over -20%, I was like whoa. Then, it slid like that for 2 solid years (with a reopening bump).
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  139. Exploitation / leverage of labor is terrible for a country in the long term. Always felt ABNB is a more sustainable model than UBER because it's leveraging an asset / capital rather than labor.
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  140. Saudis buying from the US was always about a defense shield. There was an implicit agreement that the US would come to the Saudis aid if someone (Iran) attacked them. Pooh Bear and the PLA will not make the same agreement even if they could expand their naval / air fleet that far.
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  141. It works in SE Asia, but it's a process that has been handed down for many many generations. Not some weird cut and paste strategy.
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  142. Total madness. No license, registration or insurance.
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  143. We all have big TVs at home. Still isn't the same for certain type of movies.
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  144. lol, Asian-Americans aren't a monolith.
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  145.  @Un1234l  Not the US. Only 40% of the "younger" population has a BA or higher. In 2021, about 41 percent of the United States population aged 25 to 34 years had attained a bachelor's degree or higher.
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  146. The problem is they were treating "real estate" like a quasi-hard asset rather than a real asset. In the US, you can model out cash flow on how much rental income you can generate from the property. The price has to be in the ballpark to get someone to buy a property. A hard asset is just the greater fool theory. Hopefully, people will keep thinking it has "magic" value, but it has very little intrinsic value.
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  147. Who would have known that Hisense, a home appliance company, may struggle if people stop buying real estate / condos? Such a hard thing to figure out these darn markets (sarcasm).
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  148. After graduating college, it took me 4+ months to find a job. A few weeks or months isn't that long. (But, it was easy to get temp work at 3x the minimum wage until I found a position that was a decent fit.)
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  149. HK is done. Taiwan is worth saving.
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  150. Total death spiral. Cut back on government spending. People have less money to spend. Governments collect even less taxes. Edit: our 2009 stimulus package was 6-7% of GDP. And, we started ugh, QE. That barely worked.
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  151. It's funny. Richard Koo just did a Bloomberg podcast and quoted the numbers: West is 57% of Global GDP. Non-west countries: India, Africa, Russia, South America are 25% of GDP and have a per capita GDP of 13K USD. China is 18% of GDP and has the same per capita GDP of 13K USD. lol, definitely a terrible trade off.
    15
  152. If 1% of China's population is wealthy, that's 1.4M people.
    15
  153. 3:17 I'd rather stay at home. And, just go to empty local bar and get drunk since people are traveling. Going into a crowd like this would be torture.
    15
  154. Generally served a purpose in the past. Now, it’s just about saving face. No one is believing it, so it’s not helping to attract foreign investment.
    15
  155. Hated my macro Econ classes because it was so theoretical and hard to understand in real terms. Micro Econ was much more tangible and relatable. But, oh boy. CCP China is making it extremely tangible now.
    15
  156. Reminds me of the Conan segment with Secret Santa. As he was talking about not usually participating, “I give the gift of employment”.
    15
  157. Eat bitterness and enjoy.
    15
  158. Fairly or unfairly, I've had a negative opinion about Chinese people after living in SF. Not the ABCs since a few of my friends are Chinese. And, then you'd hear the stories of the Chinese tourists. Pushed HK down the list. And, now it's eliminated. No chance I'd ever step foot in CCP China or HK now.
    14
  159. I followed a dude that likes to cover US commercial real estate. He'd just randomly tweet out random mall properties. The US lower tier malls were struggling even before the pandemic. They were selling / foreclosed for rock bottom prices back in 2018-19. This trend was going to happen with or without the pandemic. The pandemic just sped up shopping patterns. The mixed used developments seem like a way better use of real estate. Asia does a lot of these already. This mall isn't one of them. Instead of the Little Pinks prank calling Japan about seawater, real nationalism would be to start a campaign about supporting local small businesses and not shop online at the big internet companies.
    14
  160. Inflation is bad. Deflation is worse. And then, you have the absolute worst: inflation on necessities and deflation on discretionary goods / services. Congrats CCP!
    14
  161. US housing price drop max’d out at -19%. But, the oversupply of 2.5M homes rapidly went to under supply by 2010-11. CCP China has years and years of oversupply.
    14
  162. Fun fact: Generally, US stocks go up on average volume days and go down on high volume days.
    14
  163. It's the same thing American workers did 20+ years ago. They trained their Chinese replacements.
    13
  164. So, basically you were making minimum wage. Min wage jobs aren't supposed to be long term jobs. Yes, it's terrible for people that get stuck in those jobs. Waiting tables / bartending are the best type of jobs to make decent money without having any technical skills. When I was making minimum wage, lunch and transportation would take nearly 2 hours of my work day.
    13
  165. lol, they should have just patiently waited for the piano and filmed at a different time. - wanted to film piano for some propaganda or commercial video - tried to expediate the process by interacting with him - got into a confusing image rights conversation - went over the top and tried to intimidate
    13
  166. lol, are there invisible jobs just sitting in rural areas that aren’t being filled? Edit: grammar
    13
  167. Someone should do the back story on Li Ka-shing's early exit from the Chinese market. Guy saw the writing on the wall.
    13
  168. Took me 4-5 months to find my first job out of college. Submitted a ton of resumes. Went to a few job fairs. But, the biggest difference was it was pretty easy to find temp work via an agency. The temp pay was around 75% of my the permanent job that I accepted. Was able to juggle going on interviews and working on temp assignments. It was terribly boring office work though. Thought I was going to die. Mostly accounts payable / receivable stuff. Working at the banquet office of a Hotel was way more interesting, but a totally dead end job.
    13
  169.  @Hellofa6ird  Dude. Dude! That's not diplomatic immunity. That's sovereign immunity. (what is wrong with the education system. what the heck.)
    13
  170. Top down can be effective if…there is actual analysis done. But, that ain’t Pooh Bear. He’s a genius in his own mind, but has a middle school education.
    12
  171. A couple of things: The term "nm" stands for nanometer, a tiny measurement that is one-billionth of a meter. It's tiny, and there was a time when process nodes were truly measured in actual nanometers. It usually defined the size of a transistor's gate length and metal half-pitch (half the distance between the beginning of one metal interconnect and the next on a chip), which were both the same size. That reality stopped in the 90s, however, and ever since then, the 'nm' measurement has been nothing more than a marketing term. Also... IBM crams 30 billion switches onto a chip the size of a fingernail. Using nanosheets, IBM has created transistors for a 5nm chip
    12
  172. 25% internet tax. Commercial real estate is way more important to the economy than couriers and small distribution centers.
    12
  173. umm, the B-21 Raider is still in development. It just went on its first test flight.
    12
  174. Many of these are from earlier in the year. It’s winter now. No one is in short sleeves outside in winter.
    12
  175. 16 ruble is like 15 cents USD.
    12
  176. Bonus system is good for private companies, but that's based on performance goals. Have zero clue how governments (civil servants) can have performance targets.
    12
  177.  @markdowse3572  Totally get it. You are saying don't start an unnecessary fire. I'm saying the fire has been burning for years.
    12
  178. To a degree, this is how the F-35 is produced. 9 different countries are involved and there are hundreds if not thousands of subcontractors.
    12
  179. There was a survey done a few years ago across advanced economic nations. Korea (ROK) had the worst opinion on China by far of all countries.
    12
  180. What happened to the dude that could make semis by hand and without machines?
    12
  181. Dude - the Chinese are going to fight themselves?
    12
  182. 7:08 Always amuses me that Pooh Bear allows price gouging that even capitalist countries frown upon during disaster times. Some official is getting a cut of the inflated prices.
    11
  183. 50-1 price to income ratios aren’t sustainable?
    11
  184. lol, that worked well in the Soviet Union. And, Mao's China. Amusingly, its the opposite. CCP China needs to privatize all their state assets and distribute the wealth to their citizens. Not just cash payments, but use the money to build up social services etc.
    11
  185. Has nothing to do with cheapness of the product, but taking advantage of lower market wages of different countries. Quality of the product is a corporate decision not a location of manufacturing decision.
    11
  186. lol, online has killed brick and mortar, but online isn’t a profitable business.
    11
  187. People in China should know that going to a Chinese restaurant in the US on Christmas is a tradition for some people (highlighted in a Christmas Story). Times have changed a bit though. Many more places are open on Christmas now. Didn't used to be like that. Edit: adding stuff about American Jews. And for obvious reasons, they aren't usually busy on Christmas. And what about eating Chinese food on Christmas? It dates at least as early as 1935 when The New York Times reported a certain restaurant owner named Eng Shee Chuck who brought chow mein on Christmas Day to the Jewish Children’s Home in Newark. Over the years, Jewish families and friends gather on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day at Chinese restaurants across the United States to socialize and to banter, to reinforce social and familiar bonds, and to engage in a favorite activity for Jews during the Christmas holiday. The Chinese restaurant has become a place where Jewish identity is made, remade and announced.
    11
  188. It's simple basics: supply and demand. Instead of creating new supply, the government should buy comparable housing stock off the market and transfer it to homebuyers that are waiting for delivery. Pros: would help support price by limiting supply, residents get a home and money isn't getting thrown after bad projects Cons: money is getting sucked away / transferred to homeowners and doesn't help GDP with more construction
    11
  189. No, it’s grown, but only due to one time projects ie construction / real estate. It means they have to constant build “stuff” to grow GDP. Also, they have expanded exports over time.
    11
  190. It's not even close to his highest viewed views. This is very niche.
    11
  191. Man, it's a good thing that China didn't raise the retirement age to keep more older workers in the workforce. And, didn't mess around with the youth unemployment rate to hide the problem from the public. I'm sure this is just a blip and this will pass. It's not like another 12M people will graduate next year and the year after.
    11
  192.  @fikrifahrizal482  It's because they live in China and have no idea how life is on the other side.
    11
  193. Don't forget the Kpop and Korean TV ban. It almost decimated the Korean TV business. They were paying $250K+ per episode on the top dramas and all the sudden, they withdrew. China was paying the highest per episode at that point. And, a funny thing happened. This smallish streaming business in the US called Netflix decided to dip their toes in the Korean TV business. Netflix is paying many multiples more now than the Chinese ever did. And, you have Apple and Disney buying shows too. While China was important to Kpop, it was more of an add on. Again, Korea turned West and finally started to break into the western music markets.
    10
  194.  @beowulf1312  It's a valid point. Just thinking from their perspective and Pooh Bear saying, "hey, we'll lift the lockdowns and things will go back to normal economically". Which to a degree is a somewhat insane assumption. Pooh Bear with his economic training in carrying sticks thought it was like a spigot.
    10
  195. The crazy part is renting is so cheap. Makes way more sense just to rent and save the extra money that would have went to a mortgage.
    10
  196. Dude - you can't just google the rate. The (up to) 200 to 1 is the real rate that people in Russia can buy dollars. You people need to educate yourself on how the real world works.
    10
  197. Why would anyone think Russian meat is popular? I'll admit, I did break US law by sneaking some cured meats into the US which I bought outside of Florence. But, that was Italy.
    10
  198. lol, Mao literally said Japan was off the hook and everything was fine. No need to apologize anymore.
    9
  199. IMO, the British relative link is pretty weak. His wife’s family and his siblings are REALLY well connected though. They do everything under the radar.
    9
  200. Maybe I have missed it, but I've never seen anyone protest out of altruistic reasons. Chinese people only seem to care when it impacts them directly.
    9
  201. lol, they are selling military style MREs to the public. Those things are garbage (apologies to the MRE Youtube guy).
    9
  202. The beauty of Apple is its reliability in the OS. 15 years with the iPhone and never had any issues. I have no need to jailbreak and run weird Android programs.
    9
  203. Banks are mildly concerned about homeowners mortgage defaults. But, they are pretty aggressive in seizing and selling properties. Then, the homeowner is still responsible for negative equity for the rest of their life. But, if these brick and mortar stores all go under and commercial real estate defaults, whew. There is no recourse. Banks are going to take the loss. It's all opaque though. No one on the outside has a clue what is really on the books.
    9
  204. I've been casually following the Boogie Woogie guy for years. The dude just wants to play piano with random people.
    9
  205. Loved my work Thinkpad back in the day, but it was right after IBM sold them. Was extremely sturdy and had almost a metal like top casing (was probably really hard plastic).
    9
  206. Incheon airport is a good measure for a control group: Yearly passenger traffic at Incheon International Airport is expected to rebound to nearly 80 percent of the pre-pandemic levels, the airport's operator said Wednesday. December 20, 2023
    9
  207. Naw, people at that age have less stamina to work long hours. Like the video said, employees are doing the job of 2-3 people now.
    9
  208. That’s one good thing still with HK. You can (mostly) trust their numbers. They still have a few old school HK bureaucrats in the government. Have a feeling this will change over time and they’ll just make up data.
    9
  209. Yeah, it's not even close of a comparison. The US was barely oversupplied in the housing market and it quickly went to undersupplied by 2010. And, it's a completely different model since people in the US can claim bankruptcy.
    9
  210. That’s how small businesses operate. Even big businesses. Very few people have the full upfront cash to dump into a business opening.
    8
  211. Starbucks and Estee Lauder said their China businesses aren't rebounding as they should either. Estée Lauder stock was falling Wednesday after the cosmetics company lowered its sales outlook for the year as softness in China is expected to continue. Starbucks revised its projections for global and U.S. same-store sales growth to a range of low single digits to flat from its previous forecast of 4% to 6%. Same-store sales in China are expected to decline by single digits, down from the prior outlook of a single-digit increase.
    8
  212. Ironically, the cash would be useless to spend there since you need Chinese apps / bank account.
    8
  213. Why are we quoting prices from 20-30 years ago like a boomer? That's the price when I was a kid. (although any price comparison is silly without comparing the food weight as well.)
    8
  214.  @NetflixForeign  Advertisers are the least of the problems. They are selling it to insurance companies.
    8
  215. All the big online companies are extremely profitable. But, they aren’t growing revenue very fast except with international businesses.
    8
  216. Was shopping for a DVD player (or some other electronics) years ago and I was looking at the “Made In”. Was disappointed that I couldn’t find any Japan ones as they had moved to SE Asia at that point.
    8
  217.  @dcc70  Obviously, the dudes from Africa selling the passes.
    8
  218. In the US, that is illegal and regulated by Weights and Measures (FTC).
    8
  219. lol, how?
    8
  220. I've been saying this for the past 1-2 years. Healthy economies run off discretionary purchases. All the services and goods that are "unnecessary" is the engine of the economy.
    8
  221. 5:40 This just makes no sense. Banks don't load up their balance sheet with EM debt. It's a specialty shop business or a very low portion of the investments. Too lazy to look it up, but lots of this debt is heavily discounted already.
    8
  222. If they are all in poverty, no one will be able to tell the difference. -Pooh Bear
    8
  223.  @karenstraborvsky5235  People tend to assume things work the same where they live. In the US, people don't grow large crops without having a contract. (or they use a middle person system.) The smaller farmers are usually the more organic ones that sell for higher prices possibly in markets. It's obvious that things work different in CCP China.
    8
  224. You realize that's an arbitrary number the Russian Central bank set right? A non-market number not based supply and demand or fx trading.
    8
  225. Always odd when Americans bring in "home" politics to a different subject matter.
    8
  226. Would be really easy to split the country in regions and give half the people off. Then, take 1 week break to not overlap travel and give the other half a week off 3 weeks total).
    8
  227. Elections in a democracy as a check and balance seem to always outweigh the supposed efficiency of an autocratic government. The crazy EU discusses topics / projects so long and the levers move very slowly, but I'll take that over this pure waste of money (US is probably in the middle in terms of efficiency). It's like they did less research than a college student would do on a new bridge proposal.
    8
  228. My whole life has been numbers. And, this video has way too many numbers for me. Should have been bar charts or something.
    8
  229. Not the perfect indicator, but getting the CCP housing price-income ratio in line with the US would be a -75% drop in price from the peak. (And, that doesn't account for the CCP oversupply issue vs the US is undersupplied.)
    8
  230. Never be the first to buy something from a new manufacturer. It's one thing when Apple decided to produce phones. Very similar to iPod / laptops. But, a phone company producing cars? Even the iPhones had major issues (not Apple's fault). Worked in downtown SF in a modern relatively low floor building and our phones didn't work in the building. It was comical.
    8
  231. Yeap, because the dude doesn’t care about wealth.
    7
  232. US building codes are time tested and have safety in mind.
    7
  233. They can boycott NVDA and buy AMD GPUs from the other Taiwan CEO, lol.
    7
  234. Same level of confidence as South Africa electricity.
    7
  235. Need to go back further. They forcefully and unnaturally pushed an economic cycle into a tighter window. Stuff breaks down eventually. Breakneck speed growth that is artificially is not healthy. Short version: the middle class never had time to develop. At least when the Japanese went through their asset bubble, they had 40+ years of industrial development over time.
    7
  236.  @howardmaryon  Dude - it's extremely practical. Bankruptcy would be a nightmare. The size of unfinished, pre-sold homes in China is about 20 times the size of developer Country Garden as of the end of 2022, Nomura analysts said. “We estimate that there are around 20 million units of unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes,” the analysts said
    7
  237. lol, from a VOA article on early ‘24. A Shanghai resident who for privacy reasons only gave her surname Ms. Shi, takes the high-speed train to and from Hangzhou for work every week. She tells VOA that white-collar workers like herself who commute weekly can afford the high-speed rail. She notes that most passengers who take the high-speed rail daily are business travelers who are reimbursed by companies or government agencies for the cost.
    7
  238. The reality is the average Chinese citizen is going to suffer. Really suffer. The only solution would be "remove" Xi, allow Taiwan to be an independent country, stop the genocide of the Uyghurs. But, there is zero negative infinity chance of this happening. The CCP has chosen a path and now it's time to face the music on their own.
    7
  239. My guess is the amount of flights is way less, so they charge whatever they want.
    7
  240. The stock market term is "catch a falling knife". (should be self-explanatory)
    7
  241. But, the CCP just reported that exports to Russia doubled. What happened? lol.
    7
  242. The term hypersonic is so misused. A true hypersonic isn't just about speed. It's that it has a random flight pattern, so it can't be shot down easily. https://youtu.be/iDjITK7Cy1U
    7
  243.  @FrenchTutorials  Took Japan 25+ years. It's pretty hard.
    7
  244. Go to Russia and try to get that rate. The bank will laugh at you.
    7
  245. I will re-up my past comment. Unemployment in the US peaked at 25% during the Great Depression in the 1930s. No way is it at 50%.
    7
  246. @wse3572 Dunno, Korea-CCP relations have been in the toilet since THAAD. Kpop and Korean dramas are still banned in China. Was a total inflection point though. Both industries turned toward the west and are way stronger today. Dramas are getting distribution rights 5x the Chinese paid by the US streamers. Kpop exploded as well.
    7
  247. Reminds me of the Matrix: That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.
    7
  248. Dumbest system ever. Bank deposits in the west are consolidated. A branch isn't a subsidiary of the company, but just an extension for customer service. No such thing as a local branch failing in the US. (some branches may have "paper" liquidity issues, but that's just based on how much paper money they store at the branch.)
    7
  249.  @mukadatar64  This has never happened in modern US history. And, it's "too" not "to". If you are confused, use "as well".
    7
  250. @ Not in the US. Data clearly shows the pay differences between high school educated, BA, Master's or higher. Also, people with college degrees always have a lower unemployment rate.
    7
  251. My god. It's like she is speed reading a book rather than trying to make a concise persuasive presentation. Can't finish the video.
    7
  252. Japan foreign residents are now 2.5% of the population. Korea is 4.5%. CCP China would need to import 35M-65M people to achieve the same percentages. lol, that's a whole country. Japan and Korea easily can import labor to help offset some of the decline. Not ideal, but still helps. And, what foreign workers would pick CCP China over Japan / Korea?
    7
  253. Pooh Bear to the rescue! Feeding everyone bitterness.
    7
  254. What a terrible take. Women have zero influence in Chinese politics which created this mess.
    7
  255. Listening to the video is giving me a headache. There is so much incestous business between the government and the companies owned by the local governments / state governments. You'd have to map it out to see what is actually happening and who is getting the benefits. And, where the money is coming from.
    6
  256. Have to be really aggressive and sharp to survive the shift to online. In the US, basically only Dick's Sporting Goods has survived. Foot Locker is still afloat, but always struggling. Sports Authority, Modell's, etc all went bankrupt.
    6
  257.  @CanMav  Yeap, people like to make silly comparisons: ie US growth is only 2-3% vs China's "whatever fake data GDP". If the US GDP is growing at 5%, something serious went wrong or is going to break down. (Michael Pettis has been talking about China's forced growth for a while now.)
    6
  258. Luxury cars are the extreme end of the spectrum of discretionary purchases. But, it’s still an example. The biggest worry are the shops and restaurants. Becomes a death spiral if commercial real estate shuts down.
    6
  259. This is why I don't fault the Fed for overshooting with QE and rates. Letting an economy stall for an extended period of time is dangerous. CCP China has never recovered from 2022 lockdowns.
    6
  260. US isn't a great example. Japan / EU is a pretty good benchmark
    6
  261. It's a silly argument about Americans. Having a mixture of people concerned about different issues is a positive for society. Likely more Americans care about lost pets / animal treatment than the foster care system.
    6
  262.  @srj607able  Indonesia has been their new growth area since they shifted out of China.
    6
  263. lol, I had a well reasoned comment about UST and it got shadowbanned (invisible). And, all the bot comments get through the AI censors. Makes you question the AI capabilities of big tech. Got posted after a weird delay.
    6
  264. lol, no way. That's around 10% of the population or 1 out of every 10 people. That's impossible not to "feel" it.
    6
  265. Cut my teeth in the corporate retail offices and that's the bulk of my experience. Irks the heck of out me that US retailers go through multiple rounds of safety / materials testing and somehow these products flow into the US without the same requirements on these online platforms: Chinese owned or even Amazon.
    6
  266.  @benfoot4212  It's available in the Philippines, lol.
    6
  267. Dude - it’s driven by corruption and self interest.
    6
  268. You realize the US will go into a recession if those tariffs are enacted right?
    6
  269. Sick of these "selfish" Chinese protests. They only get all uppity when it directly impacts them. Real protests are off moral grounds and / or helping out others (even though you are unaffected).
    6
  270. The meat makes sense because people are cutting back on the budgets. No idea about the vegetables. More people have died than having babies, but it shouldn't be that sudden. Could just be poor planning.
    6
  271. I'm going to assume they were flying a Chinese airline. Usually, they would have a mandarin speaking employee to assist. Not sure what speaking in English accomplishes. Plus, wouldn't Arabic be more appropriated? lol. Also, I've flown international a lot. If your flight has issues, it's never an easy fix and be prepared to wait. Can't imagine there is more than 1 flight daily from SA to China per airline.
    6
  272. It's pretty easy to do a cash flow analysis on investment properties. CCP China was only looking at the cap gains increase. The West looks at cash flow.
    6
  273. Korea did it perfectly. - In 2000, Gimpo airport had 36M passengers - In 2001, the new Incheon airport had 14.5M and Gimpo had 22M - Incheon steadily increased to 33M by 2010 - Gimpo leveled out around 13M, but then started to increase again to 17.5M by 2010 - In 2019, Gimpo airport was at 24.5M - In 2019, Incheon was at 71M 20 years after Korea built another airport, they went to almost 3x as many passengers. Also, they built Incheon airport in multiple phases. They are on their 3rd expansion.
    6
  274. Just enact the same safety testing procedures that US companies have to follow and none of these products pass. Then, test their products and start fining the platform.
    6
  275. In the US, you can just claim bankruptcy. Your credit sucks for 7 years, but no biggie.
    6
  276. So, these "aliens" have learned how to manipulate the space-time continuum and haven't figure out how to refract light for a cloaking device? And, what's the deal with the lights? They are ineffective for flying. The worst strategy ever.
    6
  277. Likely, this isn't a systemic problem. Someone stole the cash and replaced it with fake bills. Though sounds like multiple branches are running this scam. Having fake bills does nothing to the official balance sheets. (There are definitely other systemic issues though.)
    5
  278. I could use the same logic in 2007-09. My spending habits didn't change. Sure, we froze salaries / took paycuts and I had to fire 10% of my team, but it barely impacted me financially. I still went out to each almost every night. Still spent the same amount of money for lunch at local shops around the office. Gee, I guess everything was fine.
    5
  279. NYC price to income ratio is in the 10-11 range. San Francisco is around 7-8. There are 3rd tier cities in China at the peak north of 20. Shanghai / Beijing was around 50. It's pretty normal for lower income countries to have 1 or 2 cities at a high price to income because of a concentration of rich people. It was everywhere in China.
    5
  280.  @mikestewart4752  The only way to weed out corruption is a free press and an independent prosecutor / court system. And, that ain't happening.
    5
  281. If you look at a map, this bridge makes sense in theory. Guess they didn’t do accurate surveying of actual car traffic patterns.
    5
  282.  @christianlibertarian5488  My big takeaway is don't overact to the numbers (yet). US companies went from being under inventoried to way over inventoried. And, cut inventory to right size. Need to see more data points to figure out if it's a short-term blip or medium-term trend.
    5
  283. Naw, we have elections. People in the US are stubborn, but eventually they would vote people out.
    5
  284. While restaurants technically are "brick and mortar" stores, they aren't categorized that way. Refers to retail stores.
    5
  285. At least in the US, you could redeem your points for food at the company store BACK IN THE 1800s.
    5
  286. Was going to say at least they should be good at software and then realized their OS is based off Android.
    5
  287. Whenever I hear about how the CCP government is always late, wrong and then do a 180 degree reversal, I start to feel better about Taiwan. And, then I start worrying about what they will be late and wrong about with Taiwan.
    5
  288. F’ Elon. He refused to give Taiwan access to Starlink.
    5
  289. Ugh, that was Newton. We all learned the fable about the apple hitting him.
    5
  290. Debt ≠ losses. Accounting 101, both sides of the balance sheet need to "balance" out. There should be an equal amount of assets that offset its liabilities. Obviously, there can be accounting trickery that can overstate assets though. (Zero chance I'm going to invest any time into looking at their financial statements.) This video was all over the place. They should have slowed it down and picked the main points and expanded those points. Lots of random "facts", but didn't make sense or very interconnected.
    5
  291. Cumulative losses…is not a real financial number. Cash burn and current / forecast numbers are the numbers that matter.
    5
  292. Generally (but not always), PPI is a leading indicator. CPI is a lagging indicator. To be fair, their CPI / PPI numbers are a black box. Have no idea how they weight things. Also, CPI contains housing which PPI doesn't.
    5
  293. 6:36 reminds me of an inappropriate story early in my career after I graduated. Went to work for a Fortune 500 company after college. We had weekly staff meetings, but the offices were a bit cramped. Not enough meeting areas. (They were in the process of building new offices. We sat right near the CEO's office and he would come barging out into our area. Was a bit terrifying.) So, our Director would jam us into a small borrowed office for our weekly meetings (Was the VP's office, but he was in other meetings.) We are in the weekly meetings and for some reason (I have no idea why), I used to play with one of my female co-worker's hair during the meeting. Dunno, she had really pretty hair. But, I was entry level and she was 2 levels above me. I still have no idea why I did it and why she didn't reprimand me for doing it.
    5
  294.  @SERGIO-cr6uy  lol, they are spending $800M a year on LIV golf. Ronaldo is getting $200M+ per year. Messi was getting more. Turned it down and they raised the offer higher. At that point, it's $200M-$500M per year. Does it really matter though? It was a huge amount either way.
    5
  295. Bad internet research has the China full year box office around 40B yuan. 2023 was 55B yuan (-27%). 2019 was 64B (-38%). US box office is down around -19% vs 2019. Flat to 2023.
    5
  296. Are people insane? How would a new car company have enough data to program the software for self driving functions?
    5
  297. It’s basically bad communication and being dishonest. During the 2008 financial crisis, we took paycuts with upper management taking the biggest cuts.
    5
  298.  @pennycandyys  It's not weird. Everyone in Korea (I know this is China) has dashcams. It's for insurance purposes.
    5
  299. Pooh Bear had one shot post-pandemic. Dude was like, “ok, business as usual”. We’ll never know if it’s because he’s a zealot or is getting the worst data to make decisions. Probably a combination of both.
    5
  300.  @Games4Kidz7  lol, you've never seen the Chinese internet sites. Good luck. And, you are missing the point. Residential RE is already down the drain. Adding commercial RE into the downward spiral is suboptimal.
    5
  301. It boggles my mind that DNA or some type of national number tracking database isn’t used.
    5
  302. @ Do you realize we have the internet and access to this data right? FRED has numbers back to 2000. Sans pandemic, the highest unemployment rate of a doctorate is 3.6% in 2009.
    5
  303. @ lol, you haven't looked at the numbers. Only about 5M people have doctorates in the US. That's 2.5% of the working age population. Anyone that gets their doctorate in a halfway decent college is fine (as long as its a marketable degree and not basket weaving). You do realize underemployment is captured in average salary right?
    5
  304. IMO, it’s a free press. Elections would be nice, but free press is most important.
    5
  305. Oddly since the US took their lumps decades ago with manufacturing, it’s better insulated now. Tariffs can be slapped on to protect a few key industries. Maybe Apple and the semis take some of a hit, but they are still very profitable. Farmers could get hurt if they produce China exclusive product like soybeans.
    5
  306. Actually, it's good for non-Chinese assets. It's part of the reason why the US market is up (and Japan). No one wants to invest into China stuff. The 10yr UST is at 4.48% and the SPX is 1000 points higher when UST was at these levels.
    5
  307. You'd lose your job and being watching YT videos full time. America ain't like Japan where companies had a sense of nationalism and held onto workers.
    5
  308.  @Mrbfgray  Obviously, you've never taken out student loans and don't know the Stafford loan limits.
    5
  309. Just weird. Lottery should just be a supplemental business for an existing store. lol, and why would a store stock up on scratch tickets ahead of time? It should be a weekly replenishment at most. Worked at a place in my late teens. It was a magazine / tourist store. We had two registers on the front counter for the store and the lottery machine was on the side of the counter.
    5
  310. lol, are you nuts? Blackrock has $9 trillion under management. If they fail, we are in a serious global systemic failure.
    5
  311. Pooh Bear is the worst game player of Sim city ever.
    5
  312. No US bank depositor has ever lost a penny during a bank failure since the FDIC was created in 1933 (limits apply). In total, account holders affected by the bank failures since 2007 have not yet recovered about $145 million in uninsured deposits, the FDIC data show–a small sliver of the roughly $780 billion in total deposits at banks that failed over that period.
    5
  313. If there are 100K workers, that's only 2 per meal. Western countries stopped doing the dorm / company meals ages ago. The closest comparison you can find is sporting events ie some of the American football stadiums have 100K attendance.
    5
  314.  @timotheegoulet1511  "refract" is different than "reflect". It means bending light around the object hence the cloaking device. (obviously, it's more complicated and scientific than a 1 sentence definition.)
    5
  315. SOHO founders hatched their plan over a decade ago. Probably have made the best transition.
    4
  316. lol, "stuff is cheap" even though I don't live in China and make a Chinese salary. Pooh Bear must be your master. "What's wrong with deflation? Prices are cheaper."
    4
  317.  @xcloud777  Japanese banks are some of the biggest in the world by asset size.
    4
  318. Probably close to $20 trillion in local government debt purchases. Another $12 trillion in central government debt. Than spread the rest out between households and companies. Only the central government number is reasonably accurate. Everything else is a guess.
    4
  319. This is the correct analysis. There was a brief moment at the end of ‘22 and beginning of ‘23 to get aggressive and throw money at fixing the RE issue. Now, it’s too late and it’s dragging the whole economy into a downward spiral.
    4
  320. Everything is a bad idea in the beginning. I used BBS as a kid, but we found a local number and didn’t incur long distance charges. Internet in the early 90s was a crazy per hour number. Palm Pilot and Apple Newton didn’t work out commercially as well.
    4
  321. Inefficiencies creates jobs. There is a reason why Indonesia is imposing massive tariffs on China.
    4
  322. China stock market is relatively small: Probably around $10-11 trillion.
    4
  323.  @raevj  1- umm, that's what nominal means 2- not necessarily. Way harder to calculate a "real" import number because the basket of goods are different. Gets murky as the iPhone doubled in cost, but is way different from 2013. 3- as a % of nominal GDP, it's going to be a smaller % 4- Real = inflation adjusted Nominal = non-inflation adjusted
    4
  324. Too lazy to research the securitization market in CCP China. I know the derivatives market (CDS) is way underdeveloped. It's hard to know who "owns" the risk in the commercial market.
    4
  325.  @gladiatorgamer9502  Literally, I explained it. There is a difference.
    4
  326. All the data is publicly sourced. Ignore the “opinion” part. Also, they are using anecdotal examples.
    4
  327. lol, the VOA is a known US government agency. It’s not some clandestine front trying to pretend to be something else.
    4
  328. Video was pretty disorganized. Just a bunch of random data that wasn’t connected. And, it left out the biggest part: oversupply in the housing market. Not homes for sale, but total homes vs total households. Also, the 2022 births have zero impact today. That’s an issue for 20-25 years later.
    4
  329. Korea was de-risking even before the ban. Or it was just better economics. My cousin's fiance (now husband) was placed overseas in Vietnam for extended stints. Was involved in manufacturing. This was early 2010s. Eventually, he was transferred to Malaysia after they were married. (both native Koreans)
    4
  330.  @powershift2024  Interestingly, I just looked at Japan's UNRATE. It peaked at 5.5% in 2000. China is probably double that right now if not 3x. Japan has been mostly growing every year (looks like 7 years with negative, 2 flat and rest small positives since 1990). Just slow as dirt.
    4
  331. Literally, not true, but ok.
    4
  332.  h.e.pennypacker5228  Famines can only happen if a country doesn't have enough foreign currency or they are a hermit nation like North Korea. Having to buy more food overseas isn't a famine.
    4
  333.  @yeroca  The destruction of small brick and mortar stores started earlier in the US with hypermarkets. It was a huge concern back in the '90s / 00's. The small businesses that survived already adapted, so online was less of a hit. 2004: A Wal-Mart discount store arrived in the historic town of 40,000 people more than 10 years ago.
    4
  334.  @MakerInMotion  The guy was too left for MSNBC.
    4
  335. Always wondered why people didn't question the rent payment vs mortgage payment spread. Excluding expensive places for foreign corporate workers, I saw some crazy numbers. It sounded like a Chinese mortgage payment will 2x the payment if you rented the same place. And, in some extreme cases, I saw 3x or more. That's why some people didn't even bother renting their places and just left properties sitting there and unfinished. Always felt like the arbitrage was renting a place and using the savings for well, not Chinese stocks.
    4
  336. Well, this channel has achieved the "The Three Little Pigs". Obviously, this is my opinion only. The one female narrator with a British or "British colony" accent feels like she is learning how to read. I don't watch those videos. The other female narrator with an American accent speed reads through the script. Tiffany Meier who does the other channel as well is good, but it's almost too dry. News pitch doesn't work. This narrator is perfect. Speed of narration is great and it "almost" doesn't feel like she is reading from a script (which she is). Edit: the Wargraphics dude, Simon Whistler, is on my scale near the peak. You really don't think he's reading from a script.
    4
  337. Wait, what? GLD (Gold ETF) hit a high of 225 and dropped about 2%. Is China not using the spot price? Edit: did the math. 25 yuan / 576 = -4.3% drop. It did drop about that amount earlier in the week and rebounded a bit.
    4
  338. Divide by 7. Use your old elementary level math skills.
    4
  339.  @powershift2024  Yeah, people are idiots thinking they can make money off fx / macro bets. The cost and risk that comes with these trades are not for the faint of heart. Certainly, not by people spending time in YouTube comments. Michael Burry almost had to give up on his short trade because he was running of time and it was getting expensive.
    4
  340. The buy sell spread is huge. According to the Financial Times, Moex' resulting dollar restriction caused the greenback's rate to spike among local banks. Where the central exchange offered the US currency at under 90 rubles, some lenders have now sold it for 120-200 rubles.
    4
  341. Weird video. Lots of inaccuracies. Not sure if I want to time stamp and refute them all. I'll just talk about the UST. All of the US treasury holdings are underwater for the CCP. A mass amount of selling will push the yield even higher and make them realize their losses at an even higher rate. Likely, looking at a $100B loss. Even trickier is their MBS holdings. It's an illiquid market. Nearly impossible to sell their holdings in a short period of time.
    4
  342. Just a terrible video. I'm more confused now than before watching it. Statements contradicted each other, charts had lines on a bar chart that didn't make sense, didn't explain what "minimum contribution base" means, etc. I literally have no idea how much a worker contributes: raw number or % of income.
    4
  343.  @piotrmajewski5978  Without securitization and CDS, housing in the US wouldn't have been an issue. There was barely any oversupply in the US market (except regional pockets).
    4
  344. It's nearly impossible to reach Depression levels due to monetary policy tools. The US central bank in the 1930s had no clue what to do and to a degree made it worse. Everyone knows the playbook today. They have a lot of debt, but at some point, they'll realize they need at least a stimulus package near 10% of GDP.
    4
  345. It’s like clockwork. A massive bank bailout every decade.
    4
  346. The US should start going full reciprocity with China. Far too long that we’ve played nice with them. We should implement the same type of rules on Chinese people and businesses as they do on Americans.
    4
  347. F-35 is exported already. The only outlier country is Singapore. Turkey, Thailand and UAE have been turned down. Taiwan as well.
    4
  348. Repatriated profit from Chinese companies are a small fraction compared to the factory investment + jobs in the local market.
    4
  349. The fertility rate was above 5 until the mid-1970s. It stayed above the 2.1 rate (growing population) until the early 1990s. Then, add in modern medicine has extended lives. Life expectancy climbed from 33 in 1960 to 78 today.
    4
  350. Not being rude, but you misunderstand the topic of the video. It's about balance of payments crossed with Fx reserves. This type of presentation needs flow charts to be effective. Words suck. I guess in theory people could slowly withdraw cash from banks and hid it.
    4
  351. Whoa, let’s settle down about cost effectiveness. The NGAD which feature drone wingman is going to cost $300M per plane, lol.
    4
  352. The original iPhone was the best. I dropped that thing a zillion times and the screen never broke.
    4
  353. @ The original question hinted that it was referring to a longer period of time, "Their GDP probably has never grow at all". Not just 2024.
    4
  354. I wonder how much is real estate losses vs core retail business.
    4
  355. It's the only way Japan survived their deflation time period. BoJ owns 53% of government bonds and 7% of the stock market.
    4
  356. @ I'm not your monkey. Geez, do your own research. We have the internet. If you want to make a point, maybe research it first and then formulate an opinion rather than shooting from the hip.
    4
  357. In theory, they can sell it again, lol.
    4
  358.  @Caz-z1x  Exactly, old timer. When I was in my 20s, I had 2 jobs. Full time office job with a 1 hour commute each way. Then, I worked 20+ hours a week waiting tables. Yes, I worked 7 days a week. Never took a vacation either (went 3 years with no vacation and only took time off because my friend got married). I'd go out once during the week and on Fri nights as well. When I was in my 30s, I was putting in 65 hours a week at the office and worked every Sunday. Back then, I was getting up and firing off emails at 5AM, but had to stop because it was scaring my team. Took a vacation maybe for 1 week. Was still going out several nights a week. And, yeah. I couldn't keep up after that. Edit: oh yeah, before I was department head, sometimes I would stay late and sleep under my desk. The drive would have been easy 20 mins since there was no traffic, but I was a maniac back then. I'd sleep for 4-5 hours and then go home and take a shower, brush teeth etc and then head back to the office.
    4
  359. Divide by 7. Math isn't that hard.
    4
  360.  @gamer8300  lol, the degree of flooding is man-made mismanagement of land. Same as Pakistan.
    4
  361. No, not cash flow. All startups lose a ton of money in the beginning because they have little cash flow. Their capital market system is broken. No one can raise the actual cash to fund them. And in western systems, these companies wouldn't be able to start or would just go under.
    4
  362. Unfortunately, the Korean suppliers of red pepper flakes exports from China. Don’t really have a decent option. That’s the only (known) Chinese food exception I’ve made.
    4
  363. 6:21 End of year games? NBA Christmas games have always been the unofficial "start" to the season because football is on the homestretch.
    4
  364. Haha, $10B for a 1 commercial building.
    4
  365. umm. You need to read your sentence again and think for a second. If people stop spending money, what happens to the economy? You really think jobs are safe when people stop spending?
    4
  366. Lazada is part of BABA. They have reported on BABA in the past.
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  367. Not defending Pooh Bear, but that’s kinda the point. They are spending a lot of money to do the practical testing and development. The version after this one will be the non-beta version.
    4
  368. To be fair, these seem like bad restaurant chain ideas: likely, overpriced and not really unique. Occasionally, I'll watch some of the Japanese restaurant videos. Just small places that have been in business for many decades / generations. More of the neighborhood type small businesses. I wonder if CCP China has those type of places / how they are doing.
    4
  369. Big ups to China. They taken the US boondoggle projects and exploded them higher.
    3
  370. Avg income is about 1/5 of the US. Maybe a 1/4.
    3
  371. Actually, no. Madoff investors got 88% of their money back (original investment only, no gains).
    3
  372.  @negi9076  Dude - people do internships while they are in college. It's getting real world experience while the company pays you peanuts. Also, it level sets your expectations and generally how you fit into the workplace. And, it helps you get hired before you graduate.
    3
  373.  @negi9076  lol, yeah. Doesn't sound like they have the same setup. We would bring in interns occasionally in the office, but it was a lot of work for the current staff. Typically, we would put in more than we'd get out. But, we did hire a few people. But, we paid them pretty fairly. Slightly below entry level full time salary. (Man, brings back memories. Forgot that I did a few presentations / workshops with my cross functional partner at a college.)
    3
  374. Just watched a video about Redwood trees. They grow high…because of fog / water (and a bit of evolution).
    3
  375. lol, they aren't getting 60B yuan in sponsorship revenue and 40B yuan in copyright revenue.
    3
  376.  @importantsomeone153  Wumao alert. Everyone else is taking about consumer protections and common sense money matters. This dude jumps in with "geopolitics" analysis from Mars.
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  377. You need to look up housing price to income ratios by city. NYC isn't getting cut to 5. Or move to Detroit. It's at 2.
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  378. Europe --> US ---------------------------------------------------------> China That's the scale of food safety.
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  379. F-35 is one of the biggest boondoggles in history, but it's a sweet looking plane. It looks like video games when they fly. F-35: https://youtu.be/lbpzFXaKAxM?si=L7-aQr20i9ASserS F-22: https://youtu.be/iT8FWryeNSw?si=QMPGBKa8VORswuXw
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  380. The US Great Depression was much worse. Everything was way less sophisticated back then (financially).
    3
  381. The US always has fallback options. Smaller companies and government jobs. Yeah, they won't pay as well, but no one with IT skills wants to work there.
    3
  382. Dude - you realize how much money the current farmers / food producers make? The whole point of migrant workers is that...they were making multiples higher income in the cities than in rural areas.
    3
  383.  @edwardfletcher7790  Btw, you think the invasion of Taiwan is going to be some structured event? There will be 10,000 fishing boats transporting squads at a time. They aren't going to put 5000 soldiers on a boat transport across the Strait. (or they gain air superiority and do a drop in)
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  384.  @CanMav  I have to give them a free pass a bit. I have a BA in Finance and was convinced that China's GDP would surpass the US at some point. I just never dug into the details and believed the headlines. And, ignored warning signs like Citron in 2012 (Evergrande) etc. Edit: I think BIDU was one of the few Chinese stocks available back in the day. I bought in 2011ish and sold 2 years later at a small loss. It was such a dog. It's literally lower today than I sold 10 years ago.
    3
  385.  @MasticinaAkicta  No, just you have to smooth out the curve and make assumptions: 1- baseline was 180Mish (2019) 2- Inventory fell short in 2020 by 37M. 3- 2021-22 was trying to restock inventory levels. 4- The average of 2020-22 (3 years) = 184M 5- 2023-24 will be determine the real trend.
    3
  386. umm, you realize that egg rolls are an American dish right? (Being pedantic. The name would be spring roll for China / SE Asia.)
    3
  387. No reason for HK to exist. They have the CCP national security law. China is "open" to foreign companies. What purpose do they serve? Singapore has taken over as a "friendly" business spot. Edit: adding examples - FedEx Plans to Move Asia Headquarters, Executives to Singapore From Hong Kong. FedEx Corp. is planning on moving its Asia-Pacific regional headquarters to Singapore from Hong Kong — another blow to the city's image as an international business hub.May 4, 2023 - US law firms troubled by China’s security clampdown, Taiwan warnings, and civil liberties limits are turning to Singapore as a place to expand their Asia presence. Firms tout the country’s easy access to other Asia nations and its attractiveness as a place to do business for corporate clients. Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe, Cooley LLP, Baker Botts, McDermott Will & Emery, Greenberg Traurig, and Goodwin Procter have opened operations in Singapore since 2020. - Follow the money: FEBRUARY 26 2023 Since mid-2021, Singapore’s foreign currency deposits have increased by more than $100bn, an FT analysis of bank data shows, while Singaporean dollar deposits remain steady. Deposits in Hong Kong banks have dwindled since early 2022, only halting in November as the Chinese city lifted quarantine restrictions. - lol, and CCP companies move in ByteDance and CNPC take over Hong Kong offices vacated by foreign companies Mainland Chinese businesses are among those securing prime locations in Central district
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  388. All these wumaos have accounts open recently.
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  389. Doesn’t seem like the last person is in China. Or that video will get taken down quickly.
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  390. Tesla cars are pretty expensive (relatively).
    3
  391.  @dongshengdi773  We have different data. Regardless, Only so many people can afford "expensive" cars. Tesla cut the starting price of the revamped Model 3 in China by 14,000 yuan ($1,930) to 231,900 yuan ($32,000), its official website showed on Sunday.
    3
  392.  @mooeykazooey  lol, they traveled 1-2 days to a bank to get extra yield. That's greed and you get what you deserve.
    3
  393. Someone needs to edit the script. This feels like a speed reading contest.
    3
  394. Channel is just recycling stuff now. Since they aren't putting dates on stuff, you have no clue when these are happening.
    3
  395. lol, I have that article up on my computer still. It's been there for over a month, but it was so long that I never finished it.
    3
  396.  @marinamarinx7655  umm, doesn't Germany offer free education to foreigners due to the lack of skilled workers?
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  397. @ My point is Germany is lacking people with a college degree otherwise there would be no reason for them to fund international students.
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  398. Feel free to move there dude.
    3
  399.  @Nikotromus  I don't even know if I agree with the concept, but commercial real estate collapsing could cause a systemic failure. China isn't as securitized as the US with debt. Regional banks in the US have "more" exposure to commercial real estate, but most of the debt is offload via bonds. The risk is spread out. Have to imagine that the net of Chinese banks have a way higher % of their portfolio in commercial real estate.
    3
  400. lol, there are no jobs in smaller cities either.
    3
  401. Unemployment rate is under 4%. Another genius!
    3
  402. I follow a few Chinese stocks. The big names are doing ok. Still growing sales, but at a relatively modest rate. PDD is the exception, but a lot of that is overseas business. If names like BABA, Tencent, PDD etc grow and steal business, they aren't going to hire more or even expand more. Their ecosystem can handle another 10-20% without spending a ton more on capex or just hire a few more workers, but no way are they going to hire +20% or spend +20% in capex. All those brick and mortar stores will have downstream impacts when they start closing.
    3
  403. That's not how hydroelectric power works. Power = (Height of Dam) x (River Flow) x (Efficiency) / 11.8 in terms of kilowatts Basically, the dams need to be tall to maximize power. Then, add in poor engineering that weaken the dam wall if the water gets too high.
    3
  404. Seriously dude? Have you looked at their per capita income? The middle class hasn’t been developed enough yet. Localized economies only work when people have a large share of disposable income.
    3
  405.  @arfajob4246  Yeap, it's probably some random middle level CCP bureaucrat who has visibility on asset ownership across local governments, state owned banks, etc. Would be fascinating to see the books.
    3
  406. lol, capital controls of 50K, but somehow they transferred billions to offshore accounts. The CCP is either complicit or incompetent.
    3
  407. Using Venezuela as an example is horribly inaccurate.
    3
  408.  @benfoot4212  My other comment got blocked. It's been public info for over a year. Taiwan is working with a EU company now and has backup access.
    3
  409. That was part of the scam. Dump the risk on the homebuyer because they have no power. The pre-sale only happened in the last 20 years. The HK system at end makes perfect sense.
    3
  410.  @parkerbohnn  You have an economics degree? A degree in public policy? At least say you went to business school. Edit: Or, you've watched Ferris Bueller.
    3
  411.  @stormryder4305  Yeah, you have crazy people suggesting that they'll change to a complete free market system or some other zero percent possibilities. That is probably the most likely possibility. But, they'll go too small. I could see something like a spending voucher at some point. Crazy part is the M2 is $40 trillion already, lol.
    3
  412. I'm sure the batteries will be "taken" at some point.
    3
  413. Disagree. Evergrande is fascinating because they'll need to open their books up. All the dirt will be out in the open. Have to imagine that asset values are way over stated.
    3
  414. Using the price to income ratios as a baseline, -75% gets prices in-line with the US. That's near the bottom. But, then it's not really an investment and it's still an oversupplied market.
    3
  415. It’s called a greater fool theory for a reason.
    3
  416. It's an old clip. It's on his page. Edit: https://youtu.be/WaSJyCkbles Most of the time, he's just in a hoodie, but he'll dress up with random "costumes "at times. I think he's in a burka another time, lol.
    3
  417. Dude - read a book. It will never get as bad as it was in the past.
    3
  418. Issuing debt means nothing. Apple has 90 billion USD in debt.
    3
  419. You an only child? No cousins? I had a ton of hand me down toys from my brother and cousins. Legos and erector sets.
    3
  420. Feels like Fu Peng will get a tea appointment soon.
    3
  421. JFC. Ignore this video. As soon as I heard "gold standard", I wanted to punch my computer monitor. - CHINA'S M2 is $40 trillion - 1 metric ton = $72 million $40 trillion / $72 million = 555,555 metric tones THERE ARE ONLY 250,000 METRIC TONS DISCOVERED ON THE PLANET.
    3
  422. You just have to keep the commitment as low as possible which should be common sense.
    3
  423. That's literally the rate the Russian Central bank set. You really don't understand how fx works. haha, you think that is the free float rate?
    3
  424. Not a fan of when the 12M graduates number is thrown out. The absolute number of jobs is even higher since not everyone goes to college. Plus, they delayed retirement for older people, so less people are going to roll off. Too lazy to calculate the net new jobs needed, but the economy needs to somehow create 10M+ jobs per year. What a total disaster.
    3
  425. Yeah, not the channel for rifles. At least the Task & Purpose guy was a grunt and actually shoots still.
    3
  426. Dude - they've proposed 10 rescue packages on the RE market. Nothing has worked. New home sales have been down -20% or more for each of the last 2 years. That's 25% of their economy.
    3
  427. And lazy people, the exchange rate is 7.3 yuan to 1 dollar. Just cheat and divide by 7 if you want dollars. (Euro and dollar are close to parity, so dividing by 7 is close enough. We aren’t getting a grade after class.) Doing math in your head keeps your brain sharp. I used to practice doing % change without a calculator in meetings.
    3
  428. @ That is the proper take. Getting a liberal arts degree from a 2nd / 3rd rate college won't do much for people. I'd hope it would be obvious to most people that a technical (STEM) bachelor's will have more value than a degree in History. It's unfortunate that the college cheat code isn't talked about more. People should go to their local community college for 2 years. It's really cheap. Then, transfer to a good state public college. Will only cost like $25K (not including rent, food etc). That's a doable debt level for someone with a degree.
    3
  429. @ I looked around at an MBA. It's highly recommended to work first before getting an MBA.
    3
  430.  @novat9731  Psst, or in the US's case, you import cheap "illegal" labor. And then bitch about illegal labor while eating "cheaper" food processed and picked by illegal labor.
    3
  431. Can't remember where I saw it, but foreigners visited the US and a few farms. They were shocked on how much yield a US farm has with minimal labor.
    3
  432. This ain’t socialism.
    3
  433. The dude clearly had a "British" accent though. Raised in HK or UK. Although I'm terrible at this. Was surfing in SE Asia and I couldn't tell the difference between British and Australian accents. Disclaimer: I was pretty high off weed
    3
  434. It would be a minimal benefit and time savings for travelers. Im sure it’s better for the environment though. Really not worth the money investment except for maybe a few lines.
    3
  435. Companies with export restrictions should operate no differently than banks: KYC. These companies seem to be doing zero investigating on who their clients are.
    3
  436. This channel picks and chooses what they focus on. It’s not supposed to be a broad based news channel. Not many of us can speak Mandarin or read Chinese characters.
    3
  437. Normal ones are fine. The Scandinavian countries have been buying Teslas for years. Hurts battery charge. No idea about Chinese stuff.
    3
  438. No. You can’t have 3 major shocks to the economy and not take major damage: Real Estate new construction crash Covid lockdowns Commodities spike
    3
  439. What’s more insane is he could rent it for 6-7K.
    3
  440. You have some personal issues then. Schneiders Juicy Jumbos Original Hot Dogs, 6 Wieners, 450 g. $3.97 at Walmart. 4.5 starts from customers. You know we have this thing called the internet right?
    3
  441. 2:30 doesn't seem like these people sat outside the store to monitor foot traffic. Should be the minimal amount of due diligence before buying a store property 3:50 I'm going to take a wild guess and say that CCP China does not have the same LLC rights for small individuals. And, this person may be personally responsible for the debt / mortgage.
    3
  442. Dude - it's totally not the same. I'm sure you are a bit older and the US was woefully under skilled. Anyone with half a brain and a bit of experienced could get hired back then. There are 200 people competing for 1 job in China (at least).
    3
  443.  @Mrbfgray  (comment got shadow banned) Worst engineer ever. You wing your way through your work assignments without looking at data? Avg student loan balance is less than 40K. And, college degrees in the US make double the amount of HS degrees.
    3
  444. Government officials need revenue. Probably taking a cut. Ain’t the farmers making the profit.
    3
  445. lol, HK system makes perfect logical sense…to a region that was ruled by laws.
    3
  446. Meanwhile in Japan, people line up outside before they open in random neighborhood shops. https://youtu.be/Sd_yTwanavo?si=EDZ2Vo6oCSrYSOPZ
    3
  447. umm, she was holding the flag upside down. The blue represents the sky and the yellow represents their wheat fields.
    3
  448.  @rndmvar  Well, haven't really thought this through 100%, but Japan is going through almost the opposite problem. They have all these established multi-generational businesses and no one wants to take them over. Pretty crazy. There is no such thing as a 3 generational business in CCP China because of Mao (except politics). A 2019 government report estimated that about 1.27 million small business owners would be 70 or older by 2025 and have no successors. Waves of closures will mean the loss of specialized craftsmanship, unique services and original restaurant recipes that make up Japan's social and cultural fabric, he said.
    3
  449.  @typingcat  Slow(er) industrialization allows for a middle class to develop. It allows ancillary businesses to sprout up and support industrialization efforts. You start getting expertise and multi-generational small businesses. Basically, a modern economy.
    3
  450. You missed the point. It's not security related to safety. It's security related to protecting the government.
    3
  451. lol, the Boogie Woogie dude "butchers" all music. That's totally his thing. He takes pieces and does his interpretation of them. And, he always adds boogie woogie into it.
    2
  452. lol, you Japanese? You should understand very well things on timeframes and the slow burn of asset devaluation.
    2
  453. I’d say the number is 2-3x the official number. Total mismatch of labor pool now. Go back to 2000 and look at the births. Was around 18M. 2/3 of kids are getting degrees. Zero chance China is creating 12M white collar jobs per year.
    2
  454. Every real estate project should be siloed. Separate mortgage and separate escrow accounts. If one project failed, the damage is isolated. Instead, they ran it like Ponzi scheme.
    2
  455.  @junko4166  Slippery slope. Every company can afford a bit of shrinkage. But, then you wake up and realize 10% of your merchandise is getting stolen. Even if they can absorb it, why? There is zero need to import cheap non-skilled labor when there are unemployed Brazilians. Their UNRATE is 6.4%.
    2
  456. For being a planned economy, the CCP does a terrible job at planning. 2/3 of the kids are getting a college degree. That’s crazy. The US is about 35% with a way more developed economy.
    2
  457. Boomer! (just messing around) People in western countries do this as well.
    2
  458. This is what happens when you don't have a free press, the internet is censored and information flows from state media. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
    2
  459. 1:26 Korean people figured out to use the wooden throw away chopsticks to hold down the lid. I saw this in the TV drama, The Heirs, in...2013.
    2
  460.  @DD-ld1xq  The same concept if I sneeze in your face or if I sneeze outside in the air. Particles disperse and get diluted. This shouldn't be a hard concept.
    2
  461. I was messing around with computers when I was 7-8 years old. My friend and I used to log onto BBS with his Commodore 64. I took classes in 5th grade at the local community college. Only had mainframe and terminals. I’m pretty sure we were using punchcards. Slowly lost interest over time though.
    2
  462. The smarter version would be to install a bidet. I use 1 roll 1-2 months with a bidet.
    2
  463. Totally annoying at times. I wrote a long comment (not this video) with data and they shadow banned it. It's very random.
    2
  464. Skunkworks has been designing airplanes since the 1940s. And, Northrop Grumman since the 1930s.
    2
  465. All these channels are connected to the Epoch Times. They recycle the same topics.
    2
  466. The CIA had a huge setback 10+ years ago, but they released the detailed info on their rocket force 2 years ago. They still have “some” assets in China although much less than Russia. It’s not going to be a surprise attack. There will be “some” intel.
    2
  467.  @GigglesClown  Literally, you are talking about hyperinflation. That ain't the issue now.
    2
  468. lol, don't go to Asia. That flight will kill you. My parents live near Boston and I flew to Korea. Even the direct NYC flight on the A380 was 14+ hours (no connection).
    2
  469. Noted past China laptop, Mark Mobius, said he can't get his money out. This was back in 2023. Billionaire investor Mark Mobius told FOX Business he cannot take his money out of China due to the country's capital controls, cautioning investors to be "very, very careful" about investing in an economy under a tight government grip. "I have an account with HSBC in Shanghai. I can't take my money out. The government is restricting flow of money out of the country," Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, told FOX Business in an interview published on March 2. "I can't get an explanation of why they're doing this ... They're putting all kinds of barriers. They don't say: No, you can't get your money out. But they say: give us all the records from 20 years of how you made this money ... This is crazy."
    2
  470. Chow Yun-fat is the real deal.
    2
  471. Who knows what the reality in CCP China right now. Gut says it's bad, but not as bad as these videos. BABA eeked out small positive revenue growth. Tencent had a decent quarter although domestic gaming was down. Small businesses likely taking a harder hit.
    2
  472. If you are talking about something is a possible Black Swan, it's not a Black Swan.
    2
  473. Without knowing anything, it would be realistic. Fake Q2-22 reported was 0.4%.
    2
  474. lol, the CCP reported new home prices went up last month. The reverse supply and demand principle.
    2
  475. Walmart paid <$3B for the 2nd biggest retailer in Africa. That's all you need to know about retail sales in Africa. Nordstrom has a bigger market cap than $3B.
    2
  476. UBI is silly. It would just raise prices to a higher level.
    2
  477.  @Alejandra-cv7rj  lol, the ruble doesn't free float. Also, the ruble was in the 70s in late 2021. The ruble in your lifetime has never gotten stronger. It was 6 to 1 at one point.
    2
  478. How do you fake data? Pretty easily if you stop reporting micro data points.
    2
  479. The "funny" part is...who are all these people ordering food delivery? and taking taxis?
    2
  480. Used to take the slower train in Korea because I was only going a short distance and the HSR didn’t stop in the smaller town. And yeah, people aren’t allowed to stand in the aisle like that, lol.
    2
  481. Dunno, everyone in the Soviet bloc knew it sucked by even before the end. These people are still brainwashed.
    2
  482.  @fdm2155  Naw, I'm sure these businesses were slowly falling off, but they are stated owned. So, the heads didn't want to talk about bad news and covered it up. Eventually, they had to pay the piper.
    2
  483. I remember when Chinese propaganda was making fun of the US during several bank failures last year: SIVB, Signature etc. In the modern times, no US bank depositor has ever lost a cent. “While the management of the banks in question should bear the most direct responsibility for the mismanagement of the companies, the absence or mistakes of the US on financial supervision and macro policies is the most important thing to reflect on from the incident,” the official Xinhua News Agency said in an analysis piece published Wednesday. Edited: grammar and spelling
    2
  484.  @tuvoca825  I give everyone the benefit of the doubt as we live in different countries. But, nearly every kid in the US had to read Animal Farm.
    2
  485. As someone that transferred schools in the US for the experience and almost did an exchange program to Asia, people go internationally for the "fun" of it. You aren't going for the degree. FYI...you can still go to German Universities tuition free. Norway just changed their rules.
    2
  486. Always baffles me about their naming analogies. My parents made us do a lot of chores when younger. I’ve used a sponge before. Works fine with small amounts of water, but is terrible with a large amount. Is totally ineffective and will be useless.
    2
  487. The CCP collects vast amount of data. Some data cruncher has to know the real picture. Easy ways to double check on the amount of people employed and change over time. I doubt the data is getting to Supreme Leader toilet god Xi though.
    2
  488.  @bipolargamer99x  Like a bad relationship breakup, it's time. Asset valuations need to be reset. Need baselines need to be recreated. It's either fast crash which causes more immediate pain, but recovery can start. Or slow bleed and no one knows where the bottom is. CCP is choosing the latter.
    2
  489. This isn't propaganda, but a very limited slice of data. They are real videos and may or may not give an accurate representation. No one thinks they are the bible. Are you saying the people in the videos are lying?
    2
  490. 2000 yuan / month in fees and utilities? That seems like a fortune for that area vs job pay.
    2
  491. lol, the tame version of a late night street takeover. On a serious note, perhaps the Chinese public are starting to realize that they outnumber the cops and the military. Only need 20% of the public to join and it's an overwhelming advantage that can't be controlled.
    2
  492. You like 60? Do you even know what kids need to do to get into good schools?
    2
  493.  @Al-yu6bq  Naw, government revenue is not ripping higher. Maybe the mix of wealth changes a bit (percent), but no one is making money.
    2
  494. Costco sells gold and a lot of it. I'd feel ok buying gold from Costco. Weirdly, there is a trust factor with them over some Mom and Pop shop.
    2
  495. The globe produces more than enough food.
    2
  496.  @Alakazzam09  Yeah, no. China real estate bubble isn't close to what happened in the US. It's different planets.
    2
  497. 50 yen is 33 cents, but that's Japanese currency. 50 yuan is around 7 USD.
    2
  498. Someone needs to feed all of China’s fake data into a supercomputer and come up with the real numbers.
    2
  499.  @llothar68  Vaporizing hard assets...is not a positive for an economy. That destruction of wealth has real consequences.
    2
  500. Not being sexist and maybe I'm imaging things, but the guy narrator videos are always a bit more insightful. The female ones seem like re-hash.
    2
  501. Biden knows he only has 4 months left in office. Getting his revenge.
    2
  502. Snow caps are melting because it’s so hot.
    2
  503. Who is going to tell them? The same playbook isn’t going to work.
    2
  504.  @Liberty_or_Ded  lol, you think Normandy and other landing areas were accessible beaches? The porcupine strategy is a delay tactic. Only works for so long. (We had 10,000+ casualties in the Normandy landing. Looks like x15 for gaining back all of France.)
    2
  505. Yes, because 25% of the US economy is down 50% from the peak. Genius!
    2
  506. Genocide. Using the lockdown to kill off the minorities in the western area. Then, they’ll import other poor rural people to work the factories out there.
    2
  507. It's easy to be a Chinese keyboard warrior nationalist and curse the US, Japan etc. But, no one cares enough to go shopping outside and support small and local businesses.
    2
  508. Nike, KFC, Estee Lauder, MCD, Apple. These are all real data points that you can trust. They publish data quarterly for their earnings. Oddly, MCD bought back the stores in China that they sold years ago.
    2
  509. I'm shocked...this hasn't happened earlier.
    2
  510. lol, look at a 15 year chart. +60% in 15 years off the 2008 lows. That’s hot garbage. Too lazy to do compound math, but that’s 4%.straight math. Way less on a compound basis.
    2
  511.  jasonvoorhees5640  I have zero insight if he was intentionally snubbing Hong Kong or he was still struggling with soft tissue injury. What I do know from watching sports, trainers are aggressive in telling players to rest if something feels "uncomfortable" when players are dealing with muscle strains. And, stuff breaks down every easily at that age.
    2
  512. Seriously? A currency can't be forced to any value if it doesn't free float.
    2
  513. lol, they didn't research Mehdi Hasan? They probably thought it was Al Jazeera and the dude would be friendly.
    2
  514. This is the least surprising news as home values have plummeted.
    2
  515. Earlier in my career, I was the numbers person. Even though the production side didn't impact me directly from a functional standpoint, I halfway inquired about visiting some of the factories in China. My production counterpart dissuaded me a bit as it's a pretty hectic trip and some of the factories were in less glamourous areas. That's likely the closest I'll ever get to visiting China.
    2
  516. Brics bucks!
    2
  517.  @28naveenator27van  Bento Kawano has been open for 40 years and offers some bentos at $4. And, they are located in Tokyo. There are a ton of these bento shops in Japan. Generally, the good ones have obsessive owners. Their labor would be 2-3x a normal worker cost. A lot of sweat equity goes into the business.
    2
  518. Zhu Youyong aka the reverse Norman Borlaug.
    2
  519.  @janremongalura5713  It's been well publicized. Just look it up. It's why Taiwan is working with OneWeb which is basically EU government funded.
    2
  520.  @Lsr2380  lol, he loves that Pooh Bear honeypot. Elon is not a friend to anyone, but himself and gaining dictator like power.
    2
  521.  @rayalsop  In the fable, the apple hit him in the head and he jolted his brain a bit about why things fall down.
    2
  522. Wait, so random dude is just calling up Western media? I hate Pooh Bear like everyone else, but geez.
    2
  523. @ That is the weirdest stat to throw out. The US sells 15M per year. 31M has no relevance to anything. Politely, why would you use that number?
    2
  524. I enjoy watching the restaurant videos from Japan. People just working hard with fair prices and good quality food. And, get supported by their community. Branding and community seem to mean nothing in CCP China.
    2
  525.  @dennissvitak5475  lol, people are simpletons. You are probably familiar with this. Despite a petition from more than 1,000 economists urging him to veto the legislation, Hoover signed the bill into law on June 17, 1930.
    2
  526. People love saying this. But, this assumes that supply chain can be thrashed around on a dime. And, people always forget about the other side of the equation. Psst, China isn't a self contained bubble when producing a product. Imports become more expensive. Basically, a manufacturer can "possibly" bid lower in labor costs, but labor costs that are still higher than SE Asia and Mexico.
    2
  527.  @palvierflex4344  The economy is much different these days, but I read Grapes of Wrath when I was a teenager. And, that's at 25% unemployment. 50% unemployment is cataclysmic and basically everyone would be zombies.
    2
  528. lol, they copied the Zumwalt! The US Military should implement this strategy. Let them hack into our worst most expensive programs.
    2
  529. Thanks immigrants (documented and undocumented) for softening our age curve. -US citizen
    2
  530. My Dad got his 2nd Master's for "fun". No pay bump. Just wanted to learn more. He was a teacher and already had a Master's in education. When I was a kid, he spent a few summers at a college and dormed there. Only reason I remember it was because he was gone one summer and we had a bat in our house. Obviously, the Chinese college system is a scam they can't end. Basically, like the US fly by night colleges the government cracked down on. They generate too much revenue for college administrators.
    2
  531. lol, this channel isn’t run by Chinese nationals. And, YouTube is banned in China.
    2
  532.  @auggieeast  In 2015, they slowly stopped publishing detailed economic data points. Can't audit their top line numbers anymore. Just have to "believe" their press releases. Used to be 80,000 economic statistics. Now, it's around 10-15,000. But, if you are curious, you can make up your own fake numbers: GDP = C (consumption) + I (Investment) + G (Government spending) + NX (net exports) I'm not sure when new homes sales started -30%, but that's when they started going negative GDP. Lots of noise though with lockdowns, re-opening, exports from US crashing.
    2
  533. Italy has been screwed up since the Roman empire fell.
    2
  534.  @PennaMinecraft  Most countries follow a reciprocity rule with visas. There is no visa free rules with US and China. My relative is Korean. Korean nationals do not need a visa to the US for a trip under 90 days.
    2
  535. The other channel is 10x better. This channel and China Insights used to put out the same quality. China insights stepped up their game. Even the topics that are a few days old or I think I know, they bring new information to the table. Recently, they've added good charts or easy visuals to explain things better. Edit: Don't want to be a dick, but the narrator is horrible. I feel like I dropped some acid and she sped up 3x speed. 5:14 Sometimes slow. Hyper fast in parts now. Sometimes, it feels like its the first time she's seen the script. Other times, I'm not even sure she understands what she's narrating.
    2
  536. Williams-Sonoma is an interesting brand. A lot of their merchandise was stuff you could buy online elsewhere. I think they had to start getting creative and creating exclusive lines / brands to differentiate themselves. Just steady growth for the past 10 years (pre-pandemic). Building a brand means nothing in China. The Chinese consumer doesn't care. They'd sell off their parents for a discount.
    2
  537. They only thing I can think of in English is when people can screw up positive / negative words ie could vs couldn't. Pretty crazy that you can pronounce things that differently by accident and vaporize the meaning.
    2
  538.  @tonysu8860  The Sandboxx guy did a good write up. Basically, all of our planes cost $300M, lol. (inflation adjusted) The only way you get the price way lower is to produce a ton of them (amortize the R&D). The big difference is the contract structure: the Air Force is reshaping how it executes fighter contracts, separating design and production from long-term sustainment to force competition between firms, and perhaps most important of all, ensuring Uncle Sam owns at least a significant portion of the “data rights” or intellectual property associated with the new fighter and its design, rather than allowing a corporation to maintain a monopoly on the fighter going forward. They are trying to avoid the F35 mess. Sandboxx had the ratio at least 3-1 with plane vs drones.
    2
  539. Always a race to the bottom in China. Their society doesn’t understand that companies being profitable equals more jobs. They seem to be in a death spiral.
    2
  540.  @brianv1988  The Soviets were ahead of us in most major areas: tanks, planes, machine gun, ICBMs, IFVs, Artillery. It took a while for the US to catch up. And, it came down to we had more money and computers started to become important. That's when the real edge started to happen.
    2
  541. Greece is trying to get people to work 6 days.
    2
  542. The Sohu founders played it right. Was listed on the HK exchange. Sold out and then moved to the US.
    2
  543. lol, who is going to hack into the CCP systems?
    2
  544.  @jamesdallas1493  I don't think you understand what a swap line is.
    2
  545. JFC. Literally, every major new site has reported on this days ago.
    2
  546. The irony is Xi could have stopped the bubble, but miscalculated. He wanted to lock up his 3rd term (lifetime) appointment instead of putting the hammer on real estate in the mid-2010s. The guy hasn't made a correct decision yet. Now, anyone with real estate has lost 30-70% of their wealth in 2 years. People are struggling to find good jobs. At some point, people don't have anything more to lose.
    2
  547. lol, the CCP lied again.
    2
  548. (Obviously you are joking) CCP would lose economies of scale. And, their debt wouldn’t just disappear. That’s the biggest CCP freak out in the population decline: debt and infrastructure built for a tax base that is declining.
    2
  549. The reality is Ant Financial was it's most valuable asset. That was their growth vehicle.
    2
  550. The only benefit of HK: they still have holdover bureaucrats in place and you can trust their data releases. Likely, this will change as people retire and the CCP inserts their own people.
    2
  551.  @patrickt49  I literally never interviewed a person without a degree: analyst position for retail corporate headquarters.
    2
  552. The US is the most insulated economy on the planet. Food independent (kinda), Energy independent and the ability to absorb immigrants (if politics don't get in the way) to grow population.
    2
  553. It is interesting. You'd think that China would start putting military assets around the world ie Africa just for real time reps before invading Taiwan. Unless they plan on nuking Taiwan, the PLA will need to perform land ops.
    2
  554. Sorry about the cold war relations. Can we be friends again? - USA
    2
  555. Yeap, would have served a dual purpose if they implemented it in the early 2010s. Would have slowed down the bubble pricing + solidified the tax base. But, they would have been greedy and double dipped. Would have sold the land lease for high prices AND had a property tax. Adding a property tax now would be...suboptimal.
    2
  556. My favorite restaurant was about 10 min walk from my flat. Was always crowded even on weeknights. Moved in ‘08 a few miles away. Have to admit selfishly that I enjoyed less wait time / less crowded restaurant in ‘09.
    2
  557.  @MrGerdbrecht  Hmm, you must be European. I started working when I was 11. Had full time jobs in the summer all through high school and was working 2 jobs during the summer for most of college (not the latter half). I loved all my jobs when I was young. I got to meet new people from different parts of the city I would never meet in my US suburban town. Same with my waiting tables job post-college. Interacted with different people and always made a "game" out of it. I tried to be the most efficient waiter in the restaurant. And, it was a great change of pace from the office work. I've always regretted that I didn't work hard enough in those years. Going out and partying was overrated during that time period when I look back at it.
    2
  558. Why? It will take several generations to reverse the brainwashing even in the younger generation of Chinese. As they said in the Matrix: That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.
    2
  559. Dude - M2 doesn't mean "paper" money. Cash is part of it, but the bulk of M2 is bank deposits.
    2
  560. I have a backup backup laptop. It's a Macbook from 2012. It still works reasonably well.
    2
  561. Oh yeah, I forgot. The dude has so many positive interactions with people, he wasn't prepared for this aggressive interaction. A couple of videos with Chinese girls: https://youtu.be/j8gXVOcKE50 https://youtu.be/QL3K6e9K63Q
    2
  562. China is about the size of the US. In the US, west had earthquakes. Midwest has tornados. East / South has hurricanes. Pretty common stuff.
    2
  563.  @parkerbohnn  Dude. Dude! That's literally part of the cash flow evaluation. You've never done any type of corporate finance work eh?
    2
  564. lol, China doesn't realize that Koreans don't like them. Really don't like. According to Pew Research, in 2015, South Koreans were relatively positive about China, when only 37 percent of them held unfavorable views. Fast forward to 2022: When asked about general views of China, 81 percent of South Korean respondents expressed negative or very negative sentiments. That is (substantially) more than in any of the 56 countries surveyed worldwide as part of the Sinophone Borderlands project.
    2
  565. They have to cover up the bad loans / assets. It's very dangerous because assets are overvalued and loans have been secured with those assets. Have no idea how much leverage is in the system, but this is exactly what happened in Japan. They can't write down the RE assets on the books or it creates an accounting nightmare.
    2
  566.  @contentsdiffer5958  If you are talking about Japan, you clearly don't know the Japan market / culture.
    2
  567.  @lolingkwarts3999  They've been serving yukhoe in Korean restaurants in the US since at least the '90s. I'm not sure that says anything about the US.
    2
  568. lol, zero chance banks have taken the proper write downs. It would blow up their balance sheets.
    2
  569. This is one of his most impressive performances: a (young) female composed her own song. He listened for a few minutes. Played it back with his interpretation...and added Boogie Woogie. https://youtu.be/Wgo4zVZiPNg?si=VzMSmjc8M6LEDtsL
    2
  570. Honestly, they throw in a lot of random opinion / analysis that just isn't accurate. Stuff like ASML rebounding despite of China. It's way more nuanced.
    2
  571. There is some good information out there and remember, it was a Bloomberg article. Someone leaked the information (likely intentionally). A couple of good points I've read: 1- only deals with liquid propellant models which are likely small quantities 2- no determinant numbers on the silo lids either 3- somewhat plausible error made when testing the "leak proof" of missile. Filled with water and mistakenly marked with filled propellant.
    2
  572. The State will survive. The CCP has a way better system of internal security than a country like Myanmar.
    2
  573. It is global news.
    2
  574.  @idrathernot_2  Roch - they are end users and not a bank. They can't create a crisis. They are invested in a wide range of investments all across the world. If they went under, its saying the whole world is going under. edit: Just looked it up. Roughly 1/3 of their AUM (asset under management) is their iShares business which are ETFs. I remember when Blackrock bought the ETF business from Barclays. I worked in the same general area of (one of) their home office. Historically, It's one of the best acquisitions in the financial world ever.
    2
  575. They should have elected me as President instead of Xi. My lowly BA in Finance would have saved the Chinese economy for the long term. (But, I would have privatized the heck out of everything, lol.)
    2
  576. Wow, the city whose foundation and success was built on western liberal democratic values has went to sh** after the CCP broke the 1 country 2 systems pledge? Geez, what a surprise? Btw, all the stock market stuff is silly. The HK index is just a proxy for China. Really has nothing to do with HK.
    2
  577.  @deftones8717  lol, a lot. They measure it in metric tons. China is tops around 400 eggs per capita per year (using weight assumptions). That's 560 billion eggs.
    2
  578. Dunno, I'm skeptical on the size and time period. There are private satellite companies that take pictures of everything. Nothing in the news about it. If the fires were huge, there would be satellite pictures.
    2
  579.  @JohnGrandline  umm, they want to be seen, but not seen? Just come during the day and everyone will "see" them.
    2
  580.  @fdm2155  No, I mean inefficient for the shopper.
    2
  581. All you had to do was trust Uncle Warren in the 1960s / 70s and you were set for eternity. The stock price was $39. It's 542,414 today.
    2
  582. Pakistan seems to be the same way.
    2
  583.  @ian-flanagan  Yeah, just commenting on the CCP shill overreaction / intentional obfuscation. They know zilch about what he does and how he plays / performs.
    1
  584.  @A.S.K.1  You didn't watch the video or you'd understand my point.
    1
  585.  @ian-flanagan  DUDE - Not his videos. It's literally in the first five minutes of this video. Do I have to time stamp it for you? 3:33 They are accusing him of "butchering" a Chinese opera song.
    1
  586. Someone else commented on a different video, but where are the wumao? and CCP / Russian joint bot farm? They used to make comments on these videos.
    1
  587.  @charlesharper2357  Yeah, I should have been more specific. Obviously, I mean in terms of CPI / inflation.
    1
  588.  @talkinghand122  Healthy economies run off discretionary purchases.
    1
  589. Just feels like a bad version of ChatGPT. - deflation is bad: ok, we’ll raise prices so the CPI will increase - budget shortfall: ok, we’ll raise fines and utilities costs - frugal budgets: ok, we’ll reduce office supplies Part of me is glad that Xi is incompetent. But, he’s a zealot which makes him unpredictable.
    1
  590. Transit works differently by country. In Korea, they just scan your bags, but you legally aren't in the country. Not sure if HK works the same way.
    1
  591. It's amazing how stupid the Pooh Bear is. There have been rumbles of deflation for 1-2 years, so the CCP has made a directive to increase prices.
    1
  592. Yeap, the law of large numbers. Chinese men need 30M brides. You can't steal that many childbearing age women from other countries.
    1
  593. China is lucky that it is a young and spry nation and doesn't have any issues with an aging...wait a sec. They are screwed.
    1
  594. WTF dude. It's the exact opposite of everything you said. A shitty Chinese economy helps tamp down inflation because they aren't buying commodities. The US is near full employment. We don't have enough workers and it's pushing wages higher.
    1
  595. lol, seems like it’s a government scheme to make Chinese women lower their standards. Not enough marriages happening.
    1
  596. I'm assuming you are American. We are unique. We are one of the few countries that could fully decouple from China and be ok. Would hurt a few industries though. Much harder for other countries.
    1
  597. Come on dude. We hire illegals from Central America to process food. Makes zero sense to transports live chickens to China on a boat.
    1
  598. lol, the student restrictions are creating a bunch of mindless robots. And, then the CCP wonders why no one has any creativity. Guess they'll keep stealing stuff from western liberal democracies.
    1
  599. Agree. I've been to several Asian countries. Thought at least I'd go to HK at some point. Have zero interest. I feel more confident eating street food in Thailand than any food in CCP China.
    1
  600. Chinese immigrants have the worst manners of the 3 East Asian countries. Japan the best, then Korea and then China.
    1
  601. I'm as anti-China as they get. But, they ain't devaluing by 50%. They don't have the same pressure as the yen because there is less global trading of the yuan.
    1
  602.  @Michael-Has-Opinions  It's the same nonsense that BRICS is going to destroy the dollar. None of those countries want their currencies to free float. You can't become a reserve currency if you don't let your currency float / trade on its own.
    1
  603.  @PlanetCHINA.1  Wumao crying because China stock market never goes up. The SSE Index was 3100 in 2007. And, obviously has no clue how the business wires work in the US market.
    1
  604. It’s the complete opposite of what’s supposed to happen. Reform the tax code when times are good. Now, it’s just contributing to the death spiral. A few other points: their tax base was always low. They are whining about cap gains tax and unearned income tax. Pretty standard taxes.
    1
  605.  @anonimosu7425  lol, we can drink the tap water in the West.
    1
  606. The beauty about HK and Macau was the blend of East and West cultures with relatively open and free society. No one cares about another Chinese city.
    1
  607.  @matsmcmats  Classic "whataboutism". It's the textbook wumao response.
    1
  608. lol, take your right wing propaganda elsewhere.
    1
  609.  @stevens1041  Naw, you are mixing up timelines. Samsung started to invest in Vietnam back in '08. It was a pure numbers game. Could only find the '13 numbers: The base monthly salary for a factory worker in Beijing was US$466 last year, compared with US$145 in Hanoi
    1
  610. Covid is defeated! I have defeated covid. - Xi after his “election” Things will loosen up after the 20th national congress
    1
  611. BRICS! It’s quite a united union. Waiting for the BRICS bucks to be issued.
    1
  612.  @VincentConti-m5j  I (we) think I'm the last part of the generation where we had small(er) stores. I grew up in the suburbs of an East Coast US city. We had a local pharmacy and a small / medium sized grocery store within a 5-10 min walk. Of course prices are going to be slightly higher than the bigger chain, but if you don't send some of your business there, it will be gone forever. I moved away for college and I think my parents said that a CVS moved across the street from the old pharmacy. Can't imagine it survived.
    1
  613. lol, who is paying these "self media" people?
    1
  614.  @lindadeeds5326  Just pure greed. Decision was made to invest in a physical asset. The most important thing is making sure that physical asset is safe and making a few bps in interest means nothing.
    1
  615. Yeap, the global economy with volatile pricing is a zero sum game within a short time period. Xi has to be the worst economic leader in modern times. Let's support Russia and drive food and energy prices higher! Hmm, why aren't people buying our exports? He's a zealot. Don't think he cares much about economics or the Chinese people.
    1
  616.  @jillw892  I kinda realized it, but not to the extent. The piano is pretty famous. Lots of celebrities will come and play at it. They wanted to use and film the piano, lol.
    1
  617. The US has the best spy agencies in the world and we have no clue what goes on in any North Korean meeting.
    1
  618. Geez, can’t even count. There was no election where someone got 60M votes.
    1
  619. Can you imagine if you went to a website and they didn’t tell you the product they sell? Only every 3 minutes a single product would pop up. And, you couldn’t skip the product, but had to wait another 3 min for a new random one? This is live-streaming shopping.
    1
  620. Glad the CIA has stepped up it's verbal / data warfare. At least make them sweat while they are prepping for the invasion of Taiwan.
    1
  621. The dude in the beginning is using “real” data that makes sense. None of that fake CCP data.
    1
  622. People in western / liberal democracies go on strike when they don’t get a high enough wage hike. Pretty sure there would be major escalation if people didn’t get paid.
    1
  623. China needed a technocrat to manage the structural issues. Instead, they got Pooh Bear who is a zealot with a middle school level of intellect. Sure, they’ll muddle through the next decade, but Pooh Bear dropped the ball. And, now the Chinese population will suffer.
    1
  624. It's because you don't pay attention to the official CCP data releases. They keep pumping out data showing the economy is doing fine.
    1
  625. Not a huge fan of ABNB, but at least its leveraging an asset rather than leveraging labor. These are terrible long term models (with humans).
    1
  626.  @Charvo75  That's a bad investment choice and deployment of capital. It's still leveraging an asset though. It's a workable model in the long run.
    1
  627.  @parkerbohnn  I'm a typical ethnocentric American, lol. Just assume the West is the US.
    1
  628. Chinese people are so soft. My HMO basically just says stay home and get rest. Ain't much they can do even when I was sick for 3-4 days pre-covid. Amusingly, Asia uses IV way too much. No one does that in the US.
    1
  629. Would love for India to give the CCP a taste of its own medicine. Make it a JV with majority India ownership. Then, steal their tech / blueprints.
    1
  630.  @averybaumann  NYC is 10-1. 3rd tier cities in China are at 20-1.
    1
  631. SEG Plaza did not use western architects and engineers.
    1
  632.  @shieldphaser  Total "death" spiral (pun intended). Korea has nearly 5% of their population as foreigners now. That will probably double over time to mitigate the labor shortages (low birth rates). CCP China would need to import 50 million people to get to 5%, lol. That's more than some countries. Plus, no one is going to pick CCP China over Korea or Japan where the wages are higher.
    1
  633.  @ChairmanMo  lol, "air superiority". You've watched Top Gun way too much. Not sure why you are flying 30,000 feet above the obvious. It's a stealth fighter.
    1
  634. lol, you are uniformed. Germany is allowing anyone to go to college for free (foreigners included) because they need educated workers.
    1
  635. Nothing to be worried about. I mean it’s not like China has a birth rate issue or male tilted gender imbalance.
    1
  636. lol, they are so desperate for PR and ideas that they think old people are going to drive the economy. Old people's medical costs are a total drag on economies. Old people aren't big spenders. A piece from NHK: https://youtu.be/LDByScOQ_YE?si=e-cR7qWKQ_sC_K-q
    1
  637. Dude - what's your solution? Or do you like to nitpick without thinking?
    1
  638.  @LamborghiniDiabloSVPursuit  Idiot. Look what Japan did. Took 25+ years and a pandemic.
    1
  639.  @foilhat1138  lol, let's get real. Even if CCP China changed, it would implement something like Vietnam. It's not changing overnight.
    1
  640.  @LamborghiniDiabloSVPursuit  YouTube deleted my comment. Yeah, it's called Japan. And, I doubt it's even in the world history books.
    1
  641.  @foilhat1138  foilhat is an appropriate name. Do you tell your boss to go f' themselves? The CCP quitting ain't happening either. I can come up with fairytale answers too.
    1
  642.  @nisonatic  again simpleton. WHAT'S YOUR PRACTICAL SOLUTION? If there was something else in the their toolkit, they would do it.
    1
  643.  @GigglesClown  lol, you are terrible at analysis. Just because I won't go along with the CCP is collapsing troupe, you think I'm pro-Xi. Far from it. I'm pragmatic on the levers for monetary and fiscal policy. The number 1 concern should always be getting the economy on track.
    1
  644.  @realist7239  The spread is big, but likely not that big. (using the bad data above) If a Russian person goes into a bank and wants dollars, they have to give 400 rubles and they will receive 1 dollar. If a Russian person wants rubles and gives 1 dollar, they only get 50 rubles. It's called the buy-sell spread (or bid-ask).
    1
  645. Dude - Senator McConnell's wife is embedded with the CCP. These people are small potatoes.
    1
  646. lol, young people just want a better healthcare system, cheaper housing and abortion rights. That’s not communism.
    1
  647. Was always lazy and didn't look at the housing starts. Just knew new home sales were down big for 2 years running. The housing starts mirrors economic activity in the market. Basically, 25% of the economy is down -50% in a period of 2 years. That's catastrophic.
    1
  648. That's not how the stock market works. For example: if an individual stock price falls, it means there are more sellers than buyers and the market maker has to lower the bid price. It will continually adjust the price to meet the share demand. There is no transfer of money. The price is purely based off supply and demand of the market. That's why in normal markets ie the US, high volume days usually represent negative days. Even a reasonably up trend, the volume doesn't spike to the highs.
    1
  649.  @Serahpin  lol, you are wrong. Dead wrong. Price is driven by the people that are selling, but EVERYONE ISN'T SELLING. Let's say Seraphin owns 900 shares. I own 100 shares. There are only 1000 shares total outstanding. If I dump my shares and drive the price down 10%, Seraphin's share value went down 10%. Seraphin did not sell his shares. I drove the price down and Seraphin's shares got revalued by supply and demand of the people selling.
    1
  650.  @Serahpin  Again, FALSE. It's called paper profits for a reason.
    1
  651.  @Serahpin  You really have no clue about the stock market. lol, you've never seen a flash price drop before in the market or an individual stock to understand the mechanics. Let me guess, you don't have a degree in Finance. Not only are your punching above your weight in Finance, you don't remember the original comment. The people haven't sold yet and have paper profit / losses. Again, it's not in anyone's pocket. A small % trades can control the price of the market / individual stock. The money is not gone, it is just in another pocket
    1
  652.  @Serahpin  lol, do you even trade stocks? Again, you don't have a degree in Finance. You don't know what you are talking about. An online expert with no life experience telling people wrong information. Go ask your broker to explain to you what I wrote.
    1
  653.  @Serahpin  Great. My Finance professor was the guy that advised the Thai government how to setup up their capital markets in the 1970s and this Serahphin dude is trying to "edjumacate" me on how the markets work.
    1
  654.  @Serahpin  The funny part is I know exactly what you are trying to "explain", but it's not applicable here.
    1
  655.  @Serahpin  The dude is saying there is a direct transfer of wealth from the new buyers (who lost money) and into the pockets of the old sellers (who sold at the top). And, I'm saying that's not how the markets work except for 1 long term scenario. And, this isn't that scenario. lol, CAT opened up down 2% this morning with zero shares traded. The MM slammed the bid lower due to a downgrade. Yes, 2% vaporized without any shares trading hands.
    1
  656. psst, AMZN doesn't make money by selling stuff. It's all Cloud and advertising.
    1
  657.  @rndmvar  If you had half a brain, a better argument would be... the selling of goods attracts eyeballs / consumers. Advertising is getting "free" eyeballs without having to pay the acquisition costs.
    1
  658. The beauty about the CCP system is everyone is cheating everyone else. As Coolio would say, "Been spendin' most their lives Livin' in a cheater's paradise". Even better, all the data is getting fudged, so no one knows the full extent of the issues or the data gets delayed by months. I said last year the CCP needed at least a 10% of GDP stimulus package to hold the line and try to reverse. At this point all the small measures is like peeing to put out a fire.
    1
  659. lol, one corrupt government meets another corrupt government. If people don't realize, the Pakistan military owns and runs tons of businesses. When China starts undercutting their prices, their business empire is at risk.
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  660. Yeap, going to see the tofu dreg projects worldwide. On September 16, 2021, the Matthews Ridge dam built by GMI collapsed, causing flooding. Several inhabitants were forced to seek refuge in trees waiting for the water to recede. According to Guyanese newspaper Stabroeknews, residents had warned the company about this risk. The unwillingness of Chinese company Guyana Manganese Inc. (GMI) to repair a dam it damaged in 2021 is sparking great controversy in Guyana. Despite receiving clear instructions from Guyanese President Irfaan Ali to repair the dam in Matthews Ridge, Northwest District Region One, which damages are severely affecting the community, GMI has yet to comply, Guyanese daily Kaieteur News reported. “The quality of Chinese works is abysmal and is in stark contrast to the quality in the United States or Europe. They don’t even come close to reaching their standards,” Euclides Tapia, professor of International Relations at the University of Panama, told Diálogo on July 22. “There are always risks of collapse or failure in the infrastructure built by China.” Chinese state company Sinohydro funded the Coca Codo Sinclair (CCS) Hydroelectric Power Plant in Ecuador, which was inaugurated in November 2016. An inspection of the structure in November 2018 discovered 7,600 cracks in the eight distributors that inject water into turbines. The cracks are due to the use of substandard building materials and inferior welds. The Ecuadorean government appointed German company TÜV SÜD to conduct a yearlong thorough evaluation of the plant. “This shows the poor quality of construction in Chinese infrastructure megaprojects, six of which are hydroelectric plants,” former Ecuadorean Minister of Energy Fernando Santos told Diálogo. “If the cracks can’t be repaired, the machine chamber will have to be replaced. What starts badly ends badly.”
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  661. D E A T H S P I R A L It’s becoming pretty amusing. It’s like the people in charge have no concept of macro economics. Company struggles. Fires people. People have no jobs / can’t spend. More companies struggle. Rinse. Repeat.
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  662. I hate the CCP like everyone else, but every country would do this. They weren't going to let Beijing take flood damage. Just doesn't make sense from a economics standpoint. With that said, the cover-up disinformation campaign is inexcusable (as usual).
    1
  663. SF is a small city. The TL is not near Financial District by SF standards. Back when they were building the Transbay, we called the alley “crack alley” because people would be doing drugs. Felt bad for some of the girls that parked in different areas and had to walk by. Nothing ever happened though. (I had building parking).
    1
  664. This narrator took a huge hit of meth before reading the script.
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  665.  @mr.metallic5310  Dude - you have to realize that CCP China ain't like the West. It's all state owned businesses. Depending on the data, they have 500,000 fishing boats already. They have a fleet of them which are military vessels disguised as finishing boats. Just google "Chinese fishing boats Philippines". It's a lot easier to plan this in autocratic countries.
    1
  666.  @mr.metallic5310  Look up, "China’s Maritime Militia and Fishing Fleets". There are pictures of their fishing fleet in action.
    1
  667.  Not_A_Dumb_Leftist  You need to read the wargame simulation. They'll land.
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  668.  @willaimoconnell9430  Exports are always distorted because the basket of goods is inconsistent and changes. Regardless, you can make nominal % of GDP comparisons.
    1
  669. It covered up and masked the data. When Pooh Bear created the 3 red lines, it cut off the RE companies funding. It’s been a downward spiral since then. Nearly, 2 years straight of new home sales down by 20% or more. The lockdowns took away savings and economic activity. Also, it drained the government coffers. Lots of dominos though: their supply chain became unreliable and woke people up to the risk. Foreign companies moved offices out of the country. Then, add in the national security laws. It all adds up and not in a good way.
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  670. No real role models in China. Just government official, business leader or celebrities. Anyone that tries to have a moral compass gets silenced: remember the doctor that tried to warn about covid?
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  671.  @usshunk32  BABA, BIDU, JD, PDD are all American listed companies. It's really easy to look at their financial statements. DIDI was listed in the US, but the CCP made the kill the IPO after the launch. Never seen anything like that. BABA made 79.7B yuan last year in profit.
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  672. Literal correlation between loss of union jobs and loss of middle class wealth.
    1
  673.  @Onyx-Rose150  lol, you don't trade stocks. They literally trade off market cap on every single transaction. I don't think you understand the definition of market cap. (Amusingly, I think you have a cursory understanding of business and think market cap is...market size. It's not. Market cap or Market capitalization is the value of the business set by public markets.)
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  674. @ Yeah, good luck sport. You aren't even playing in the kiddie pool. You are standing outside the water. Market capitalization for a stock: shares outstanding * current traded price. I'm not sure why this is so difficult since the internet like...has this information. Source: Me, I literally have a degree in Finance.
    1
  675. @ (and, my instincts were right. For some reason, you are confusing market size with market cap.)
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  676. @ Markets and stock prices are supposed to be efficient. Any market share change will be accounted for in the financials statements via revenue / income. And thus, investors (traders) will price the stock differently which would change the market cap. Are you telling me you still haven't looked up the word "market cap" yet?
    1
  677.  @Onyx-Rose150  I ain't reading your odd tangent story that has nothing to do with market cap. This isn't a gray area. It's very binary. It's a word definition. There is no wiggle room.
    1
  678.  @Onyx-Rose150  We aren't debating what the proper or efficient value of the asset. We aren't talking about future growth potential with a forecast. There is nothing to debate. You seem to be one of those intentionally obtuse people who don't like to admit when they are wrong. Do you know how I avoid that? I don't comment on things with statement of fact when I don't know about anything about the subject matter. Like, I have nothing to add about quantum physics.
    1
  679.  @Onyx-Rose150  Yeah, you still don't get it. The price paid for a company is their market cap. Why is this so hard of a subject for you? lol, what does race have to do with anything? If Walmart paid $3B for the 2nd biggest retailer in Asia, I'd say the same thing.
    1
  680. Since I have a rough ballpark of EBITA valuation ratios for retailers and margins, I can back into their current revenue without looking into their financial statements.
    1
  681. Government needs cash. They are just going to seize / steal businesses.
    1
  682. The funny part is Korea went on a salt run. It was slightly more logical since Korean salt is sea salt.
    1
  683. I guarantee hospitals for government officials are using western suppliers.
    1
  684. Seems pretty obvious that most of these people don't "jump the wall" and aren't reading international news sources. Have to look at it from a censored news perspective and then in makes sense.
    1
  685.  Jack Smith  It's public data.
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  686.  Jack Smith  I ain't your monkey. Just google it.
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  687. Naw, here's how it works: all these officials have been siphoning money and the smart ones get it out of the country. Each set of officials is just trying to prop up the system until the grim reaper comes for them. Sure, you have a few zealots like Pooh Bear, but everyone else doesn't care about ideology. They only care about their power and how much money they can skim.
    1
  688.  @benghazi4216  Yeap, free trade prevents wars was the mantra. Shit doesn't work with autocrats. Actually, it's the reverse. The autocrats try to exploit it and slice your neck with it.
    1
  689. Lots of data / evidence out there with US cities when manufacturing leaves. Lots of evidence out there with Japan what happens with a severe RE bubble. This is what happens when 1 uneducated person helms the country and is a zealot.
    1
  690. He’s been around the longest.
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  691. It's literally the exact opposite of what a country needs to do during a recession / deflation. Just becoming a self-fulling prophecy / downward spiral.
    1
  692. It’s called…you didn’t pay attention in your history class. Things have been much worst in the past.
    1
  693.  @necrotenkiwongwat2359  Actually, that's not how it works. Income segmentation isn't like college professors grading on a curve. It's determined by how much someone can afford basic stuff and have a little extra leftover. Someone making 3K yuan a month is not middle class in China (5K USD a year).
    1
  694. CCP counts on the average Chinese person to be ignorant. Chinese people assume the UK social programs are the same CCP social welfare system.
    1
  695. Too lazy and don't care enough, but SSE Index (Shanghai) and HK Index likely have a correlation coefficient close to positive 1.
    1
  696. You haven’t researched this have you? Nuclear power takes forever to build. Imagine if they had a Nuclear plant near one of these dried up rivers. Oh yeah, China has earthquakes. Some really big ones. And, they are building more reactors. If they tofu dreg a nuclear plant, game over.
    1
  697. Easy solution: don’t ever go to China. Just visit other countries in Asia.
    1
  698. All the deposits should be put in an escrow account held by the local government. Only after the building is complete should the funds be released.
    1
  699.  @shundi4264  Unpatriotic. You don't believe the words of Mao. You need to go to re-education camp.
    1
  700. People who think the asset value will increase.
    1
  701. lol, Pelosi voted against China being in the WTO. She’s the real OG.
    1
  702. Trump will sellout Taiwan in a second.
    1
  703. US publishes monthly numbers on imports from China. It's under the Census department which is a subset of the Commerce department (just google "US imports from China by month"). I copied and pasted the data in Excel, but can't remember if I saved it and too lazy to search for it. (doing this from memory) 1- Oct '22 was a small decrease in imports around -10% 2- Nov and Dec '22 was a large decrease in imports around -30% 3- Raw data matched up with numbers / levels from 2012ish imports Likely, this is the bottom unless something else dramatic happens. Basically, US imports from China are lapping the huge negative decrease from last year.
    1
  704. Horrible take. This isn't WW2 where you are throwing a mass amount of equipment and people into battle. Would be marginal extra industrial production in a invasion of Taiwan.
    1
  705.  @jimshoe402  No, that is the FDIC guarantee. There is potential risk above $250K. Again, NO US DEPOSITOR IN MODERN TIMES HAS EVER LOST A CENT. The government stepped in even with bigger deposits and backstopped them.
    1
  706. lol, don’t believe everything in these videos. Bytedance ain’t laying off 70% of their employees.
    1
  707. Yeah, not an issue now. That’s an issue down the road.
    1
  708.  @eastonmackay3058  The population didn't suddenly change over the past 1-2 years. The RE bubble is a separate issue from demographics. This bubble has been going on for over a decade.
    1
  709. Was so pissed when we hired a Chinese contractor on the Bay Bridge. And you guessed it. They fucked it up.
    1
  710. There were signs, but the greedy Chinese ignored it. The smart money got out early. 2013: Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Holdings began slowly restructuring its holdings in the Mainland. It sold off real estate, retail chains, and other assets, shifting its investments to Europe. 2015: Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong to sell Shanghai project 2015: Hong Kong Tycoon Li Ka-shing's China Withdrawal Highlights Broader Problems: Analysts A Sept. 13 editorial by Liaowang Institute, which is linked to the official news agency Xinhua, attacked Li after his plans were revealed. "At this sensitive time, when China’s economy is in crisis, he continues to sell off his assets and to spread pessimistic sentiment," the article said. 2017: Li Ka-Shing sells Hong Kong tower, The Center, for record S$7b
    1
  711. Biden admin is raising tariffs by 4x on Chinese EVs to 100%. Your move EU.
    1
  712. lol, Chinese people are insane. NYC real estate is expensive because you can rent out the property and come close to covering the mortgage costs. How many people in Shanghai can afford $5000 / month rent for that 2 bedroom?
    1
  713. Always amusing to me that the Chinese government has access to every bit of data in the country, but still can't forecast anything properly. Seems like they only invested money into the "secret" police / internal security systems and nothing else.
    1
  714. lol, if those tariffs get implemented, the US will go into a recession. It's basically Smoot-Hawley 2.0.
    1
  715. Ahh, yes. I had Playmobil as well. What about erector sets? Those were pretty advanced and you'd lose a lot of pieces. Edit: My memory is vaguely visualizing another weird toy that had mechanical parts and I could put them in water. Some type of sphere type shapes.
    1
  716.  @M-N00  Not how math works with housing. Babies ain't buying homes.
    1
  717.  @M-N00  Dude - I used to model / forecast for a living. Relatively simple models with several variables. If the CCP wanted to pay me, I'd set up a model with multiple inputs and do the research. But, its a waste of time to do it out of curiosity. It's not just simple "less babies". Think harder: death rates, life expectancy changes, do single people buy housing, do old people own housing? how does 1 death impact housing (grandfather)? how does 2 deaths impact housing (grandmother)? etc etc etc. Most of this data to model stuff is likely found in the household registration data. The funny thing is the CCP has unlimited data and they seem to suck at planned economy stuff. Edit: And, this is just the "potential" demand aspect. In theory, RE prices could hold if the market had an undersupply even with a demand drop.
    1
  718. Will Trump compliment Biden on the campaign trail? He sliced the trade balance with China to -106B for Jan-May. During Trump's term, it was -138B, -151B, -136B during the same time period (excluding '20 due to the pandemic).
    1
  719. Any normal society would stop the selling of said item. Chinese people just an ATM for the CCP. Reminds me of the Matrix.
    1
  720. Chinese people have gotten soft. Yeah, 15 degrees isn’t ideal, but who cares. Just put a sweater on. My Dad used to turn down the heat to around 15 at night when we were sleeping in the winter to save money.
    1
  721.  @calebkaminski6951  Well, well. I guess every US local news station is "propaganda" for crime.
    1
  722.  @calebkaminski6951  lol, drinking the CCP kook-aid. They literally stopped reporting the youth unrate for 6 months. And, magic! It's lower now.
    1
  723.  @LD-Orbs  Every ponzi scheme offers outlandish yields because they need new capital to keep the scam going. It's a tried and true process on human behavior and greed.
    1
  724.  @hamfistsman6267  It's endemic to their society. Gutter oil, fake everything, tofu dreg construction. A society that is so brazen to cheat each other to make a few coin. Japan is probably the other end of the spectrum of not cheating their fellow citizen and gaming the system. Let's use an USA example: If I dumped in money above the FDIC limit in some weird bank in Kansas to get an extra 100bps, I deserve to lose my money.
    1
  725.  @InformedKiwi  I have a BA in Finance. We learned the risk-reward principle in Business 101. If someone is offering higher yields, feel free to go after. Just don't bitch when it blows up in your face. They went to smaller banks AND went over the insured limit. Split that shit up in 4-5 banks if it's your whole life savings. I made sure my parents were in ladder bonds when they were close to retiring: mitigating interest rate risk + company specific risk.
    1
  726.  @milkeasubi5909  It's the same dude that is professing "common prosperity". The West is a capitalist society. There is no pretending.
    1
  727. If I were the CCP, I would implement a special internet sales tax. The risk to commercial real estate market is even bigger than the residential one. Force consumers to shop in brick and mortar vs online.
    1
  728.  @icosthop9998  Even out the cost proposition for the consumer. (you seriously like consultant verbiage better?)
    1
  729. It’s amusing that the planned economy country is doing the exact opposite of what needs to be done. Total death spiral. Can’t remember the order of what we did in 2008-09. Had to cut staff by 5-10%. Froze salaries. Took pay cuts (largest cuts % was by level). Feels like ages ago, so I don’t remember the details. By 2010, everything was ok. A lot of the measures were because of the unknown and not because of terrible performance.
    1
  730. Stealing from Peter to pay Paul is just shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. Government has more money to spend, but the public doesn't. It's a net zero proposition at best.
    1
  731.  @RichDenman  You pulled a CCP spokesperson move and failed to answer the question. Do you know what kids have to do to get into a good US school? Let me tell you. It ain't just taking the SATs and submitting your grades.
    1
  732.  @RichDenman  Yeah, that's not how the higher education system works in America. But, I got stuff to do. Don't have time to walk you through it.
    1
  733.  @SaschiaSlytherin  2 week fast for normal people is idiotic. It fucks with your normal body functions and you become a zombie. I fasted for 2.5 days (drinking only water or non-caffeine tea) and I thought I was going crazy.
    1
  734. Also remember, China supported Russia. China is allies with Iran and their proxies. These are all destabilizing forces to globalization and sucked out huge sums of money to consume regular goods. Pooh Bear has to be the worst chess player.
    1
  735. Zero chance the State Banks will ever reveal their real books. Can't find the article again, but did see that much of the extra forced liquidity is going into refinancing the LGFV debt, lol. Ain't helping the economy at all.
    1
  736. Vacation sites are only equipped to hold a minimal amount of people. And, not a mass amount of people at the same time. Like a restroom at a sporting event.
    1
  737. lol, I've never heard of someone say, "I'm in my 40s". Usually, people will use that moniker if they are in their 60s or older. Likely, you graduated high school near the 2000s. Oddly, you don't remember the 2000s. Everything coming out of China in apparel during that decade was usually good quality. Why do I know? Because I worked for a very large retailer and a smaller retailer during that decade.
    1
  738.  @darthlaurel  I'm guessing that means you remember the 1970s. That puts you in your 60s (at least).
    1
  739. @ I'm guessing there are food items in Costco / Walmart from China: probably stuff like frozen seafood. Fresh produce comes mostly from Mexico not China.
    1
  740. @ Welcome to the world of time zones. It literally is 13 hours difference: NYC to Shanghai / Beijing. It's 12 hours when DST shifts.
    1
  741. The internet firewall is pretty effective, but it's not that effective. Not like 50+ years ago with Mao when it was only TV, radio and newspapers all controlled by the State. A good percentage of the population can figure out what is going on outside of CCP China.
    1
  742. lol, everything in CCP China is about oversupply. Do they not understand economics?
    1
  743. YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND FX. Currency is a zero sum game.
    1
  744. Go suck an egg Xi. - June US imports from China range from .98 to 1.13 change from May with an average of 1.04. Basically, June imports vs May usually increase by 4%. This year, they are -4% from May. - June US imports from China at $34.3B. Lower than the pandemic '20 levels. Back at 2011 levels - June US trade imbalance from China at -24.1B. Lowest since 2009.
    1
  745. Why aren't these people using puts as hedges. Or, at least sell some covered calls.
    1
  746. College is a big business in the US, but in a different way. University administrators benefit from enrollment by having employment, but no one is getting cash (corruption). In China, everything is corrupt. Someone is pocketing cash to have kids enroll in college. A bit more corrupt than the for profit colleges that got busted in the US.
    1
  747. It's why mask adoption is way easier in East Asia. People were using them prior to the pandemic. Korea gets yellow dust from China annually. People wear masks then.
    1
  748. Talk about leading from behind. Winnie the Pooh can move first and then maybe people will follow.
    1
  749. Exact same thing as the HK-Macau bridge. Vanity project that costs a lot and serves no purpose. Xi is the 2nd coming of Mao. A total idiot.
    1
  750. Another stupid reason to buy a condo in China. It’s a depreciating asset since at 50 years the value will be zero.
    1
  751.  @SB-ex8nt  Obviously, it "depends". I haven't looked in 1-2 years, but there were public quotes in SCMP and other sources. Rental payments are anywhere from 10% (crazy) to half of a mortgage payment. It's not like the US where you can buy a property, evaluate it on cash flow and have a rental payment cover the mortgage cost. That's why the market is broken.
    1
  752. This is what happens when you don't steal military IP. Stole the F-35 and F-22, but not for the aircraft carrier.
    1
  753. lol, what an ignorant viewpoint. People in the US can just claim bankruptcy. Wipes the slate clean except student loan debt. Takes 3-5 years to rebuild your credit. CCP debt follows you around for your entire lifetime. Kills your social credit score. Multiple generations get screwed.
    1
  754. This tech will be advantageous for countries like Japan / Korea due to their worker shorter. It's terrible for China as it's going to kill low skilled labor jobs.
    1
  755.  @bluucthulhu1009  Yeah, sadly most of the Chinese that immigrated to America were the Cantonese. They are starting to get overrun by the Mandarin speakers now. Feel a bit bad the Cantonese immigrants are getting sullied by the new wave.
    1
  756.  @Whaleydavey  Generally, one side of the aisle has been like this. I won't point fingers, but... Rob Portman, R-Ohio opposed gay marriage legislation. Portman reversed his conservative stance Thursday in light of his own son's being gay. When his son, Will, came out to him two years ago, he began to think differently about same-sex marriages.
    1
  757. Some of the military dudes have been non-Chinese.
    1
  758. Yeah, that’s pointless. Just use fermented shrimp for flavoring. That stuff lasts forever (I think). I use it occasionally for making kimchi.
    1
  759.  @paulbarclay4114  Still not a wealth transfer. A transfer implies the Chinese public had a ton of money. They never have.
    1
  760.  @shyak01  Worked in apparel in the past. We started shifting in the late 2000s / early 2010s to different countries. While China had the best quality due to experience, their costs were getting high.
    1
  761. wuuuuuuummmmaaaaaoooooo alert. Or strangely, a Russian shill. lol, why are you adding fiduciary into your comment? It makes no sense.
    1
  762.  @roberthewko6715  If a Russian bought dollars in 1997, they have made 20x their investment. The ruble was 6 to 1 back then.
    1
  763.  h.e.pennypacker5228  JFC dude. It's still not the definition of famine. You are talking about food security.
    1
  764.  h.e.pennypacker5228  Do a bit a research. You have zero clue what a famine is. People literally starve to death. No one is going to starve to death if they have to eat less meat. The CCP has $3 TRILLION in US bonds. They can buy food. Just 55 percent of the world's crop calories are actually eaten directly by people. Another 36 percent is used for animal feed. And the remaining 9 percent goes toward biofuels and other industrial uses.
    1
  765. It’s a disaster for everyone unless the smart people that sold all Chinese assets in 2021 and are slowly moving money overseas.
    1
  766. I was a department head during 2007-09. But realistically, it had zero impact on me or anyone I knew. We froze salaries and management took paycuts. We cut staff, but really we used it as an excuse to fire people that were low performers. We did have to let go of a new hire which kinda sucked because she was new in her career. CCP China is likely the same. You have some industries getting crushed. Others are getting hit, but managing. IMO, it will never blow up to the extent of these videos. Times will be tough, but it's not going to be Great Depression Dust Bowl like.
    1
  767.  @briandbeaudin9166  lol, at or worse than levels of the US Great Recession, but better than the Great Depression is optimistic? Class internet people. Just parroting useless opinions without any data. Why dude? Or have you not done any analysis?
    1
  768. That specifically isn't the issue. Likely, it's just part of the sum. Real Estate loans have to dwarf BRI loans by many tens of multiples.
    1
  769.  @blazingstar9638  Dunno. The US hasn't really seen a huge spike in international tourism. I know Japan is getting bombarded with foreign tourists. I'm guessing Italy as well.
    1
  770. Would have been easily solved with a annual property tax instead upfront land sales. Or obviously, greedy CCP officials would do both.
    1
  771. I think I’ll stick to watching a few Japanese restaurant videos. Chinese food videos are getting even more pathetic.
    1
  772. Just weird. The first testimonials were educated white collar people. Are you trying to tell me these people haven't seen how bad the real estate market is over the past year? or that exports are way lower? all the big tech companies have been slashing jobs? Did they think some type of magic fairy dust was going to save the economy?
    1
  773. Naw, let’s trash the CCP. Been reading the smug tweets from the Global Times dudes for 5+ years. Dude was mocking the US when the building collapsed in FL. They aren’t human, but parasites.
    1
  774. lol, these are the same Chinese people that go crazy for bargains and will game the retail system. They ain’t earning any money because you Chinese consumers are cheap and don’t support higher wages. They still haven’t figured it out.
    1
  775. My Dad served on a sub. My brother did 20 years in the Navy. I have confidence in our Naval and Air Force operations. With that said, it will be a clusterf*ck if we go to war. We will lose a Carrier and lives. Hopefully, someone takes out Xi and he gets replaced by a moderate.
    1
  776. Not how the US government works. Only one POTUS at a time and the Biden State department is reviewing the visas currently until Jan 20th.
    1
  777. Never apply western rule of law to autocratic regimes.
    1
  778.  @thuandao4243  Totally the opposite of what BLK does. Their AUM is so high, they have to have their hands in every pie. They are so diversified, it stunts overall gains sometimes. It's why the "good" hedge funds stop taking new funds.
    1
  779. t’s a calculated risk. Korea’s covid death rate has skyrocketed and they are using combination of western vaccines. Now take those numbers and multiply it by China’s population and than multiple by a factor of 4 (due to the shitty Sinovac vaccine). 300 * 25 * 4 = 30K dead daily. The CCP will collapse if that happens.
    1
  780.  @seandoherty4236  What's the point in making up information...that you have zero access to? Sure, it's proven that crowded stores will attract buzz and passerby traffic. And yeah, many people are a bit wary to go to eat a restaurant that is always empty. But, you have zero data on jammed wall to wall tourist locations in China.
    1
  781.  @lamwen03  Quite wrong. I've been happily working with woman my whole career. All my best friends are women because...I met them at work and the industry is dominated by women. Early in my career, our combined functional areas had 3 dudes, 2 gay dudes and 20ish women. Later in my career, I had to set financial targets with 2 divisional heads who were both women. They did not get along and wouldn't get in the same room to do the targets. I setup multiple individual meetings with them to negotiate the targets to keep the peace.
    1
  782.  @lance8080  A good portion of the migrants are from other countries in Central America and not Mexico.
    1
  783. Xi and the CCP: mandate from Hell. Areas in the US that have been fracked have a lot more earthquakes. Screw around with the ground and weird stuff happens.
    1
  784. lol, you think everyone in the background gave permission to be filmed and can ask to be deleted? https://youtu.be/C75w8AS572s?si=Y1WJXWSee_K5KPv2
    1
  785.  @jacobishii6121  lol, thanks. It "sounded" like meat or maybe my brain just went there. Don't think my brain was looking out for "wheat" as a snack.
    1
  786. Chinese people have no morals and only worry about their own skin. Revolutions happen when the unaffected stand up for others for the good of the whole.
    1
  787. Basically, it would be a Normandy style type landing in Taiwan. CCP would be using every possible vessel to transport troops to storm the island. We will see if Taiwan can hold them off until allies arrive from by sea / air.
    1
  788.  @Liberty_or_Ded  I think you are overestimating Taiwan anti-ship missile tech + underestimating CCP China's jamming capabilities. I'm no mil-blogger, but it really comes down to numbers and execution to stop the first wave. CCP is going to use every "fishing boat" in their arsenal to get troops over.
    1
  789. 9:18 the PBS version of the tote bag, lol.
    1
  790.  @Keleneki  Waiting tables is a life changing experience. Even my parents were extremely patient in restaurants because we all did stints in restaurants as part-time jobs during and after college. My brother did back of the house. I did both front and back. My sister was a waitress.
    1
  791. Really? Everyone reads from a script, but its very obvious they read from a script. A good narrator makes you believe they are talking without any aids.
    1
  792. Umm, Africa. Why would a poorer and even less developed region be a good comparison?
    1
  793.  @7someone  If you listen, I'm explaining how economies work. A service economy can only develop if people have disposable income. Then, the multiplier effect kicks in. Simply put, people don't make enough to create a services economy. It has nothing to do with financing.
    1
  794.  @7someone  Did you eat paint chips as a kid? I DON'T HAVE TO CONVINCE YOU. THERE ARE LITERALLY REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OUT THERE. WTF? Do you just make up your own thoughts not knowing there is real f-ing data out there? Are you f-ing like 15?
    1
  795. How come everyone can protest for Palestine? and disregard the Uyghurs? CCP literally has sterilized the Uyghurs.
    1
  796. People outnumber the police by at least 100-1. They just need to organize and have solidarity. But, Chinese people aren’t altruistic.
    1
  797. SoFi Stadium which will host the opening and closing ceremonies for LA '28 Olympics cost 40B yuan. All privately funded (and obviously has another primary use).
    1
  798. Do as I say, not as I do. If Pooh Bear was serious, he would have moved the whole Central government there including himself.
    1
  799.  @maximillianmetscher7020  Yes and no. NOC is the same manufacturer as the B2 Spirit which is about 30+ years old. Obviously, they've leveraged their learnings from the B2 Spirit to make the new B21 Raider. It's been in development for about 8 years.
    1
  800. lol, I’ve never heard of an ICE car combust on its own.
    1
  801. You don't lift then. There is no substitute for heavy lifts in bench, deadlift and squat. I don't even go that heavy, but even getting to 4 plates is nearly impossible at home.
    1
  802. 10:35 lol, no way is the Youth unrate at 16-17%.
    1
  803.  @fturla___156  lol, this has to be the more ill-informed statement ever. They own a lot of land / real estate...OF THE STORE LOCATIONS. They don't own random real estate. They lease it to the franchisee.
    1
  804. Massive supply of overskilled labor and an authoritarian government. Would be really easy to make health care inexpensive, but somehow the dumb CCP can't figure it out. CCP hired a bunch of civil servants that do nothing instead of putting resources toward things that matter.
    1
  805. No protection from Siberia. No protection from the deserts.
    1
  806.  @MrPilgrimuk  Ah, the joint Russia-China bot farm.
    1
  807.  @MrPilgrimuk  USSR! CCP! Correct that buddy.
    1
  808.  @MrPilgrimuk  Why would I use terminology that only bootlickers use? and the common public doesn't use?
    1
  809.  @MrPilgrimuk  lol, it's a silly government that will eventually get overthrown. Btw, what's the grift on the insistence of CPC? And, why do bootlickers like you get so angry about it?
    1
  810. These shipping companies were robbing us. They never made more than $1B in net income and it jumped to $14B in 2021 and $16B in 2022.
    1
  811. This is why I'm not hyper negative on the US Fed and their aggressive actions. Hitting early with aggressive action at least gives the economy a fighting chance. Any policy now is going to be blunted in effectiveness.
    1
  812. Still individuals making singular decisions. Too brainwashed to figure out that 100 million people can overthrow the government.
    1
  813. Classic old school mob tactics. Everyone has seen Goodfellas.
    1
  814. Americans and EU people don’t want to get arrested and be a pawn in Xi’s stupid games. No business person will go to China unless it’s absolutely necessary or if you are a high level person like Tim Cook.
    1
  815. Long live Supreme Leader Xi! He's a genius to a degree. Hear me out on this one: If you knew that your corrupt economy could blow up at any time, what would you do? 1- steal military secrets and beef up your forces to invade other countries 2- try to steal the most valuable resource in the world: advanced semiconductors (Taiwan) 3- steal territory from your neighbors (SE Asia) 4- beef up internal security forces to control the population when the economy blows up 5- eliminate any successful businessperson 6- create this world "program" that is designed to steal resources from other countries (BRI) But, this probably gives Xi too much credit. Probably believed in "Chinese exceptionalism" or some type of global "manifest destiny".
    1
  816.  @batmansmith7422  lol, Youtube expert commenter is going back to the '30s. Dude - it's called math. It's magic! People just word vomit these days and don't do any basic research. Dude likely qualified for food stamps (SNAP). And, the Fed minimum wage is basically right near the poverty line AND you qualify for food stamps. So yeah, real data backs up my statement.
    1
  817. I've never heard of any US company delay wages for more than 1 pay period. If that happens, they are claiming bankruptcy. Maybe some small mom and pop shops get away with it.
    1
  818. Again, why are these videos so poor with the female narrator? 7:45 Chen Feng is...THE CHAIRMAN OF HNA. Was the first huge debt spree implosion. It has nothing to do with any paper he owns.
    1
  819. Karma. Jack Ma stole Ant Financial from other shareholders. Now, it's being highly regulated and way less valuable.
    1
  820.  @xhagast  It's a good example of the fatal mistake by western politicians and how they miscalculated. They applied the same western sense of ethics when dealing with China and assumed CCP China would start playing by the same western rule set. I've learned to throw everything out the window and re-calibrate with CCP China. Everyone is trying to cheat each other. And, people in power will get away with it.
    1
  821. lol, but the fake services PMI release was booming. Shows massive growth / expansion.
    1
  822. Really sad. I have no concept of square meters and only understand acres and feet. Man, someday we'll change the measurement system. Oh my god, if this calculator is right: 322,000 m^2 is only 79 acres and the government got $3.2B dollars. HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA. SoFi Stadium cost around $6B, but the land which is around -25% smaller BUT THEY OWN cost around $400M.
    1
  823.  @matthewmosier8439  Interesting. I took Drafting I / II, Architecture drafting and Engineering in high school, but went into a completely different direction in college. The math always seems easier with the metric system (more divisible).
    1
  824.  @matthewmosier8439  Appreciate the long response. I always just assumed that metric would be easier.
    1
  825. NVDA is a company trying to make money. They'll run up to the line, but to a degree will play ball with sanctions. AVGO (Broadcom) is a different story. Not sure why, but they seem pretty shady.
    1
  826. CCP has a billion cameras and millions and millions of computers watching their own citizens, but somehow still let these business owners flee with money.
    1
  827. Naw, they are idiots. Remember, this is the gang that can't forecast babies properly.
    1
  828. Long time. I doubt it will happen.
    1
  829. lol, Epoch Times just got popped by the Feds for money laundering. The CFO got arrested. And, when the Feds arrest you for money laundering, they have the goods. These are open and shut cases.
    1
  830. Can you really call -20% a crash? That's what the US did from Q1-07 to Q1-09.
    1
  831.  @bbustin1747  I literally looked at the FRED data. It was -20%. You need to take a statistics class and understand how median / averages work. Or just take a basic math class.
    1
  832. It’s pretty common with all immigrant groups. Unfortunately in the US, it was most Cantonese speaking Chinese pre-2000. Now, the US has been invaded with Mandarin pro-CCP ones. Don’t think they realize what will happen to them if China invades Taiwan and US military members die due to the invasion.
    1
  833. lol, Epoch Times pushing Trump, but leaving out the key Trump-Xi conversations ie During a private phone call in June, President Donald Trump promised Chinese President Xi Jinping that the US would remain quiet on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong while trade talks continued,
    1
  834. They lead with the first story for clicks, but the back half of the video was more telling. Turning into a modern day “The Grapes of Wrath”.
    1
  835. BABA latest earnings: Revenue was RMB208,200 million (US$30,316 million), an increase of 2% year-over-year. BABA and other big tech companies are squeezing a few more dollars vs last year and are still cutting jobs. Has to be way worse for smaller local companies. Alibaba Cloud, the cloud computing division of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding that is seeking an initial public offering in the next 12 months, is laying off about 1,000 workers amounting to 7 per cent of its staff, according to people briefed on the matter. Alibaba has been downsizing its payroll for months. Its headcount at the end of March was down by 4,524 people from December to 235,216, according to its first-quarter report. In the past 12 months, Alibaba has cut full-time employees by 19,725, 7.7 per cent of the company.
    1
  836.  @matthewmosier8439  lol, who said bailout? It's one thing if I was speaking out loud and you heard things differently. I literally wrote down "stimulus package".
    1
  837. It's usually a 10+ course meal. But yeah, you'll probably feel hungry afterwards. Different type of meal. Although some high end restaurants are a bit different.
    1
  838.  @amraceway  There is no such thing as data from the West. It's all regurgitated CCP data.
    1
  839. Really poorly done video. Any 1 year comparison is silly. I’ll make an exception (kinda) for macro numbers like GDP, inflation, etc. Even those should have multi-year trends.
    1
  840.  @Rhinozzzz  This was literally my full time job at one point. Planning / Forecasting financials for a corporation. It's terrible analysis to do a 1 year comparison when there are extraneous events. Look up the ZIM ticker. Same thing happened. All comparisons should include 2019.
    1
  841. US went through this, but to a degree it hurt more. People lived in the rust belt for 100+ years and then saw everything move overseas in a short amount of time. These towns have only been around for a few decades. No real attachment and people can leave pretty easily. The funny thing is all these CCP officials go to college in the states, but they don't learn anything from our history.
    1
  842. lol, that is the worst analogy. Getting reward "points" from a store has nothing to do with getting paid for labor. You are a customer in a store. You are an employee in this video example.
    1
  843. Need to continue this trend of decoupling. Xi can sell to the Russians.
    1
  844. The Chinese Swimmers for the Tokyo Olympics tested positive for a banned drug, but somehow were allowed to compete.
    1
  845. Lol, they reported their best PMI in 10+ years.
    1
  846. That’s what climate change deniers don’t get. Hotter temperatures make rivers dry up due to evaporation. Runoff doesn’t even get to the rivers.
    1
  847. Unless you are flying a Chinese airline, it would be highly unlikely. Even traveling from west-east would make it an unlikely hub.
    1
  848. No f-ing way am I paying property management fee on an unfinished late delivery building. Chinese people are crazy.
    1
  849. I guarantee someone in the CCP is fudging the payout odds. Either officials or government are pocketing extra money.
    1
  850. Sandboxx did a review on this about a week ago.
    1
  851. Well, that’s the issue. All their top-line economic data is fake. So, everything has to be cobbled together to get a sense of the real economic story. Naw, CCP ain’t going anywhere. They still control the military. They invest hundreds of billions into spying on their own citizens. Unless 20% of the county revolts, nothing will happen. And, that’s not going to happen.
    1
  852. Worked well for Mao. Let’s give it a second try. Another person with zero grasp of Economics making odd suggestions.
    1
  853. lol, she switched out her Xiaomi with Haier (another Chinese brand). Dumb Chinese people never learn.
    1
  854. Because they didn't study economics and don't believe in the price-elasticity of demand. They are simpletons: I'm short 20% in revenue, so I'll raise rents by +20% to make up the difference.
    1
  855.  @RCXDerp  sigh. I'll spoon feed it to you. Profit margins for Chinese owned factories that have moved out of China are 10-20% at most. That means most of the money is going to labor costs + investment in the factory. China is still losing 80%+ of the prior money getting spent when producing a product.
    1
  856. Hehe, The “rule of law” battle: Russia vs CCP China. Let’s see who can be more corrupt.
    1
  857. Only the other site did that. And, I think they started doing it because some people asked in the comments. They moved though and it's called China Deep Dive.
    1
  858. All the real estate companies are zombie companies. In the US, they would be in chapter 7 or 11 ages ago.
    1
  859.  @henrycarlson7514  Yeah, that's not how it works. You can't change definitions to fit a personal opinion.
    1
  860.  @willpugh-calotte2199  I was ineloquent in my comment. Used to work for a publicly traded company. When the company made more money and hit certain targets, we got bonuses. But, that's because we made more money and could expense it out. Governments aren't in the business of generating more revenue (or they shouldn't be). I guess I could see small bonus awards as reasonable.
    1
  861. Have no idea if these reports are true. But, western powers have one huge advantage. The military exercises between Five Eyes, NATO and other allies gives real feedback on military situations. CCP China does a lot of exercises with Russia, but not with the same frequency.
    1
  862.  @cymeriandesigns  Obviously, you need to give more rubles to get 1 dollar than the number that the Russian Central Bank picked out of a hat. And, yes. You aren't getting that many rubles if you give them a dollar.
    1
  863. Just google it. It's been theorized that Starlink could be reverse engineered to be a backup GPS. A team of researchers from the University of Texas Austin (UTA) have shown the Starlink broadband constellation’s potential to serve as a backup for GPS. The researchers, led by Todd Humphreys and funded by the U.S. Army, examined the downlink signal structure of the SpaceX Starlink constellation of ultrafast broadband satellites in low-Earth-orbit (LEO), reported MIT Technology Review. The team showed that Starlink could serve as a useful backup to GPS.
    1
  864. Don't. The Chinese people don't have pity on your country and likely agree with their government about stealing your ocean rights.
    1
  865. We've all seen movies like Erin Brockovich and A Civil Action. It's only a matter of time.
    1
  866.  @RM-dc6zd  Usually in lower developed countries, you'll get 1-2 cities with an outstripped ratio because all the rich people live there and there are high pockets of real estate. Like Kathmandu is 33 to 1. Shanghai / Beijing got to nearly 50-1. A bit problematic. The bigger issue were the lower tier cities were in the 20 to 30-1 ratios. It was way way over in every area. NYC is 10-1. (Obviously, data gathering is imperfect. Have to look at generalities rather than exact specific numbers.)
    1
  867. It's a bad characterization though: QE doesn't necessarily flood the market. PBOC needs to make short term bonds worthless from a yield perspective. Then, it "may" start adding money to other places. Remember, it took a long time for it to kick in for Japan. And, they had to drag the 10 year under a 1% yield.
    1
  868. Shun the migrant workers when times are good and don't allow them to become residents. Invite them when times are bad because you need their money. Bloodsucking CCP. (Honestly, seems silly. I wouldn't think migrant workers are loaded with cash.)
    1
  869.  @star_duck  Hmm, we moved buildings in 2003-04. Sat next to my (newish) boss. Don't think I had a laptop back then. We had a Citrix connection and it was terribly slow. Big boss and direct boss got promoted and I moved seats. Probably around 2005-06 model.
    1
  870.  @rayhill5767  Full actualized 2023 numbers. 2024 is forecasted flat to 2019.
    1
  871.  @PositronicDiscombobulator  What I've realized is...for a supposedly planned economy, the CCP does a horrible job at planning. Probably running into the dangers of mixing the bad parts of capitalism and dictatorship / socialism (whatever hell system they have). They have a millions of government officials that do nothing when they should be advising the farmers.
    1
  872. Skeptics will say, "why isn't China collapsing?" with all the bad news with these videos. This is more like the frog boiling in the pot. People get used to the slow degradation and try to adjust. Only a massive systemic failure would cause a collapse.
    1
  873.  @Ragpicker-y2g  China. Korea (South) has a modest presence in Africa. EU...may have some historical problems to prevent it from getting along with Africa.
    1
  874.  @SERGIO-cr6uy  Ronaldo is getting $200M per year. Not total. And, lots of reports on Messi. Believe them or don't believe them. According to COPE journalist Helena Condis, the deal presented to Messi included a three-year contract in which he would earn €500 million per season. Jaume Roures: "Els saudites han apujat l'oferta per Messi a 500 milions, però la seva voluntat de tornar tindrà pes" Lionel Messi has received a formal offer to join Saudi Arabian club Al-Hilal next season, a source close to Argentina's World Cup-winning captain told Reuters on Thursday. The offer from the Saudi club is the only one Messi has received so far, the source added. Argentine media have reported that the offer is worth around $400 million a year.
    1
  875.  @malayshamorgan3918  It's his kids too. They are all school aged now. I'm sure Saudi Arabia has good schools, but it's a way easier transition for them to attend a school in Miami. (if you didn't know, but Miami has a large Spanish speaking population.)
    1
  876.  @RUHappyATM  US doesn't care about that. There are strict rules and interviews on spousal visas / citizenship.
    1
  877.  @RUHappyATM  Again, the US government doesn't care if you find a legitimate spouse in the US. They do care about marriage for a visa only, human trafficking and prostitution, etc
    1
  878. JFC. This video is all over the place. Basis points mean nothing in day to day movement. I have no idea why they are highlighting it. Edit: the problem with this video is...I know more than whoever put it together. It's a bunch of gobbledygook. Just random points of data that don't support anything or mean anything.
    1
  879. Totally good advice for this channel. I take it with a grain of salt and realize their bias is not showing the whole picture. The truth is usually in the middle with... the CCP state media on one end and Epoch Times on the opposite end.
    1
  880. Wumao says China #1. Their socialist system will take care of the people, lol.
    1
  881.  @willpugh-calotte2199  The male narrator that has been doing this channel for a long time is better. The video subject quality is better too. These are all produced by the Epoch Times. Makes no sense why the quality of the video content is different (not just narrating).
    1
  882.  @marchebert9813  I literally listed it: China Insights. This report on Evergrande was top notch. I was aware of the different liabilities, but had no idea of the breakdown. Just a really good quality video. https://youtu.be/4KNk8wQkalo
    1
  883. The CBP data is public data. US media has been reporting on this for months.
    1
  884. Does the Epoch Times still have money to make videos after getting busted for money laundering? I'm anti-CCP, but the Epoch Times always seemed shady with their tactics in the US.
    1
  885. Really easy to squander other people's money with no elections.
    1
  886. Banks and state owned enterprises have to stay afloat to fund their global ambition dominance and military. CCP doesn’t care about the average person. Just a widget.
    1
  887.  @tamara_diamonds422  Please diamond women. Where is the dollar today? And, what exactly happens when the dollar drops?
    1
  888.  @tamara_diamonds422  You are braindead. Where is the dollar?
    1
  889. Naw, they aren't cutting the security forces or the military.
    1
  890. Basically, the CCP screwed the global community 3 years ago and is trying to screw us again.
    1
  891.  @BruceDeWald-ee5jm  I refuse to click on the Huawei homepage, but they have a ton of cash + positive cash flow.
    1
  892. Miniso is the well known example to the western world. They basically are copying Daiso and stealing their reputation. (at first, I thought Daiso started another chain of stores until I googled it.)
    1
  893.  @Whitehorse_crimefighter  It's second nature for them. Can't use a western way of thinking. They only know how to cheat and steal.
    1
  894. Wish people would get terminology right. - repo is associated with injecting money - reverse repo is when too much money is sloshing around
    1
  895. Someone needs to teach Chinese people the mandarin word for "negative equity".
    1
  896. Xi is a total mastermind. He told all the unemployed youth to return to the rural areas...so he could flood and kill them.
    1
  897. Feed your family with bitterness. -Pooh Bear
    1
  898. US GDP for 2009 was -2.6% and UNRATE peaked at 10%. Have to imagine that CCP China is at those levels or higher / worse. The US stimulus package and monetary policy was way more aggressive. US UNRATE for 2009: 1/1/2009 7.8 2/1/2009 8.3 3/1/2009 8.7 4/1/2009 9 5/1/2009 9.4 6/1/2009 9.5 7/1/2009 9.5 8/1/2009 9.6 9/1/2009 9.8 10/1/2009 10 11/1/2009 9.9 12/1/2009 9.9
    1
  899. Squeezes profit margins. Can't give raises and people are fired. Companies go out of business. A race to the bottom is a death spiral.
    1
  900. Here is your primer for long term trends: Low inflation = good High inflation = bad Deflation = bad
    1
  901. lol, Chinese banks are loaning to individuals at a 80bps spread? That seems off. Chinese central bank cut the rate on its medium-term lending facility loans to some banks by 10 basis points to 2.65%
    1
  902. umm, that term isn’t meant literally. The big 4 in the US will never go under.
    1
  903.  @thinkie12  The Saudis are paying the LIV tour players and European football players in yuan 🤣
    1
  904. Real GDP backs out inflation.
    1
  905. Dude - did you just wake up from a 10 year nap?
    1
  906. These people aren't middle class. In the US, they might fit into the sub-category of upper middle class, but even that might be a stretch. Interesting how I've never heard of a high profile Indian spy case before the Sihk assassinations. Don't hear about them trying to steal US tech.
    1
  907. Spend some time and watch Michael Pettis talk about "savers" and what it means. My rule of thumb is to trust the bond traders on macro stuff. The extremely short version is more spending is due to better distribution of income.
    1
  908. Almost got a chance to go to Japan for a job in the mid-2000s. Even though it would have been an lower level position, I would have gotten free housing / housing stipend. I'm sure I would have spent half my salary or more on living expenses / going out. Even back then, that's 50K+ USD injected into their economy. Countries never want to lose the corporate office money. Can't replace it.
    1
  909. Chinese milk companies poisoned babies because they wanted to make extra profit. Nothing has changed in the past 15 years.
    1
  910. Yeah, except people in America aren't going to Israel and urinating on temples.
    1
  911. Actually, Samsung started to moving out of China way before THAAD. Lotte was semi-forced to lease the land for the THAAD installation. Chinese government started to come up with fake store violations. Basically, stopping their ability to do business. Ironically, they got to sell out before the economy collapsed. Probably got a better return by selling out early. The big hit was to the TV industry. Chinese companies were paying relatively big money for productions. It nearly collapsed the industry. But, a funny thing happened. This "small" company in the US called Netflix started to dip their toes into the Korean market. The cost of TV rights was tiny compared to US productions, so it was a relatively risk free bet. Now, even the low end TV shows are getting 4x what the Chinese were paying back then. The bigger productions are getting 7x. Generally, the same happened to the Kpop industry. They never could break into the western market and it basically forced them to figure out a way.
    1
  912.  @JohnWerner-te5zy  lol, "western institutions". Instead of making stuff up with some weird BMW example, go figure out the arbitrage number from Kazakhstan.
    1
  913.  @scoby41  umm, have you seen the Chinese PPI data? China is going through a weird inflationary and deflationary period. State run business like electricity and governments are hammering the public for money with inflation. And, discretionary is getting crushed with deflation.
    1
  914. Nothing is more annoying than the 100 comments talking about the "googling" Ruble fx rate. People think they can take a sliver of information and understand. - ruble doesn't free float - Russian central bank set the 88 rate - Russia's central exchange has barred dollar and euro trading It's a fake number. Financial Times did real journalism and found out the rate Russia banks / black market is trading. It's a range of 120-200 to 1. If you don't live in Russia, you don't know what the real rate is. And, yes. Financial Times is behind a paywall, so it won't show up when you google.
    1
  915. If you have forecasting / planning experience, having to replace big negative decreases for any category in a business is troublesome. Just makes the math tougher. Let’s say international tourism was only worth 2% to the economy and its down half to pre-covid. That’s 1 extra GDP point another segment of the economy needs to make up to cover it.
    1
  916. Btw, it was Democrats that voted against China getting in the WTO. 237 to 197. With 57 GOP against. 138 Dems against. 164 GOP for. 73 Dems for.
    1
  917. @ Nancy Pelosi protested in TS back in 1991. There are China hawks in both parties. It's just shows some people are very low information.
    1
  918. Relatively recent video on Eater about a bakery in San Diego. Basically, she worked for 16 years as a baker in multiple different bakeries. And, some high end ones. Then, she felt she had enough experience to open up a bakery on her own. Always chuckle a bit when novices open up random food businesses in China. https://youtu.be/2ZE1iVhNlkI?si=dq-2ErP74Njrc-Pe
    1
  919.  @loosetile  Dude - then, that's a different video. This is about CCP China.
    1
  920. Pooh Bear's big domestic policies in the past 3 years: went to the scrap heap like a tofu dreg construction. - Common prosperity: no mention anymore - Houses are for living: omitted and went to the garbage - 3 red lines: let's keep loading the RE companies with debt - Covid zero policy --> dynamic zero --> f' it. We give up - Tech regulation: reversed Grade school kids playing the old sim city could run China's economy better than Xi.
    1
  921. US secret weapon for our whole existence: The US economy will grow by an extra $7 trillion over the next decade due to immigration, the CBO says
    1
  922. They are the biggest parasites on the planet. They care about nothing. A Chinese rocket stage that broke apart in space this week created more than 700 pieces of debris, putting over 1,000 satellites and other objects in a high-traffic region of Earth's orbit at risk of hazardous collisions, analysts said on Friday The upper rocket stage that carried those satellites into orbit appeared to explode soon after deploying its payloads, creating a growing field of debris that US space-tracking firms estimate to be at least 700 pieces so far.
    1
  923. Brexit was stupid. Kneecapped UK's economic future.
    1
  924. So disgusting. Can't even finish the video.
    1
  925. Too gross. Not going to watch.
    1
  926. Not sure why the anti-CCP channel is using the China earthquake scale numbers. It’s 7.1 by western standards.
    1
  927. Some people like Zeihan. Some don't. I thought he had a good summary on what stage China is with their aircraft carrier. Made sense. He had a video about 2 weeks ago.
    1
  928. The US economy is very broad and diversified. Also, it's a high income country unlike China. It's very odd to compare the 2 economies.
    1
  929. The PCR test companies will now be opening crematoriums.
    1
  930. All these RE companies are going to wipe out the foreign bond holders. That’s the easiest way to steal some money. CCP was going to force the losses on the homeowners, but their plan got foiled.
    1
  931. lots of weird dudes with "yellow" fever. Guys that will be popular in China, but borderline incels in the US.
    1
  932. China is a big country. Could be a long distance.
    1
  933. @ lol, these are people going back to their hometowns. I don't think they are commuting from Beijing to Shanghai. I doubt the average salary is still 1900 USD / month in 2025. Well, possibly. But, the unemployment rate has shot up.
    1
  934. HK officials are slowly morphing into the CCP. Lying about effectiveness of programs, doing things for show and pure incompetence / head in the sand.
    1
  935. Climate change will make weather more volatile over the coming years. We are all a bit screwed.
    1
  936.  @Kwk16534  haha, you don't read the news, but are an expert. 100 Philippine caregivers arrive in Seoul for foreign domestic worker pilot program Myanmar workers among fastest-growing group of foreign workers in Japan as society ages. As Japan formulates new policies to bring in more foreign workers...
    1
  937. This channel sucks. What about all the Americans fleeing to China? lol
    1
  938.  @giddy9052  Good question. Maybe if the richest man in Hong Kong is dumping all of his properties for 5 years, it's probably best to follow his lead. He started selling in the mid-2010s.
    1
  939. It's literally data released by the CCP government.
    1
  940. Every building project should have a separate mortgage. And, an escrow account. Residential properties should be one and done. (Using easy numbers as an example) 100 units at $500K selling price = budget should be $35M = mortgage value (allows for profit and carry interest costs) Presale deposits should be in an escrow account. When construction is complete, unit and final payment handed over. This ain’t rocket science.
    1
  941. I’m flabbergasted. Doesn’t that defeat the purpose of a door lock if it can be remotely opened? The only reason I could kinda see would be for packages, but I doubt delivery people are calling people and waiting for someone to unlock the door. I’m a hard pass of IoT.
    1
  942. Half of them are probably spies. The other half doesn't realize if a hot war starts, they are getting deported immediately.
    1
  943. Well, that’s one way to spend more on infrastructure. lol, not the most cost efficient.
    1
  944. Multitude of issues and even if they had the information efficiently, it wouldn't make a difference. But, the average person is getting information faster than Pooh Bear these days. That's why this is slow moving train wreck. Pooh is making decisions based off months old data. 2008 was a disaster for the US, but TARP, Fed commercial paper and other financial decisions were happening within days.
    1
  945.  @skyking6989  Don't take this the wrong way, but is that 4 or 5 days a week? I dated a NP / RN (nurse) before and she complained about her long shift. Really wanted to tell her to pipe down because she only worked 3-4 days a week. Fireman do overnight shifts and long shifts, but also have "somewhat" long off times. But, I get your point. The new generation in the West is not about working long hours. Me, I was working 65 hours a week and realized I would not have made it in IB (investment banking). It was my supposed dream job after college. IB back then required a baseline of 80 hour weeks which is bonkers to average. And, 100+ hour weeks during a deal. Edit: 65 hrs a week isn't hard. Just requires sacrifice. You either have to sacrifice your whole work week and work 13 hour days or work 11 hour days for 6 days a week. I choose the later. (full disclosure: my commute with no traffic was <15 min. I had a cleaner that came once a week to my condo and I never cooked.)
    1
  946.  @sabijea  Way too many different gfs back then. And, a bunch of crazy ones. Really crazy. Even with my work schedule, I did A LOT of partying back then. An office job working 65 hours left a lot of free time. Full disclosure: my commute was really easy back then. <15 min with no traffic and I had garage parking at my condo and office building. Also, I had someone clean my apartment once a week. And, I didn't really cook. I had restaurants literally right outside my condo building. My commute when I had 2 jobs was much worse. I was driving a lot. A bit less time going out.
    1
  947. lol, can you imagine that China whose capital Beijing is 3000+ years old is going to be forcefully moved to some random central inland city because Pooh Bear wants to invade their island neighbor which will leave a 1M+ casualties and end the family tree of dead single child soldiers. It’s bonkers in any rational real world scenario, but unfortunately not in dictators minds.
    1
  948.  @stevemcraemanager7119  The US market is an unique experience. You can always find a place and be the "tallest of the midgets". Many people (myself included) went to a mid-level state public college and did pretty well.
    1
  949. They are just plain idiots then. UE rate is 3.6%. People with a college degree is way less (grouping ages) in the US.
    1
  950. Naw, just bad investments. But, the math was terrible. Yields were in the 7-10% range. It's really hard to return that consistently. If you buy a fixed annuity or whole life (which I strongly do not recommend), the returns are way lower.
    1
  951.  @gamer8300  Shit happens all the time in the US. I grew up on the East Coast. Just because we didn't build 1000 dams and fuck up the waterways doesn't mean hurricanes don't happen.
    1
  952.  @gamer8300  lol, the British f'd up Pakistan's waterways = massive flooding the CCP made a zillion dams = massive flooding. Are we going to blame the New Orleans floods on God?
    1
  953.  @parkerbohnn  lol, they are who isn't. Every company uses debt. Even Apple and Microsoft. With financial alchemy, heaps of cheap debt and a shrewd takeover partner in Silver Lake’s billionaire co-CEO Egon Durban, Dell has effectively increased the value of his Dell Technologies stock from $3.6 billion in 2013, to $39 billion presently. Dell’s overall net worth, which recently surpassed $50 billion, has more than tripled in under a decade. Once at risk of becoming an afterthought, Dell Technologies now trades an almost $80 billion market cap. Current market cap = 115 billion USD. (oh yeah, I literally wrote a few papers on LBOs during my college years.)
    1
  954. I’m rather surprised that you are surprised.
    1
  955.  @aenaen184  Could be right or some version. CCP is treating it more like hedge fund scams like Madoff than a bank though. In the US if a "bank" had a proper license to do business and was FDIC insured, deposits would be guarantee. No US depositor has lost a dime of their deposit in modern times due to a bank failure. SIVB failed on a Friday and money was available on Monday. July 29, 2022 Authorities scrambling to contain the damage from a rural banking scandal in central China's Henan province said on Friday that more depositors will be repaid, while three regulators were put under investigation. 21 Jun 2023 China’s central bank is planning to tap into a national deposit insurance fund to repay depositors caught up in a rural banking fraud for more than a year (lol, it's obvious they are stretching it out like unfinished houses. Ignore the problem and it will go away.)
    1
  956. Nothing to see here folks. Everything is great with 5% GDP growth. -Pooh Bear Two Sinochem Oil Refineries Declared Bankrupt as Margins Plunge
    1
  957. lol, Dem policies are always more effective because they are trying to lower the wealth of the rich and expand the middle class. The middle / working class will always spend extra money. The rich will always save their extra money / trying to make more return.
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  958. The China stock market reminds of the XBI (biotechs) which is the absolute worse sector in the last 10 years.
    1
  959. Nearly every anti-CCP / anti-China YouTube channel is Epoch times. They've spread like wildfire. They do a lot of flat lying about stuff in the US domain though. Lying on top of lies.
    1
  960. This is old news. The TSMC news came out months ago.
    1
  961. Not that big of a deal and pretty much expected. But, how the heck did outside people track down the names and positions? That probably should worry the CCP more than getting busted on a PR stunt.
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  962. They’ve done this with the hospitals. People with life threatening issues are denied service due to covid prevention. They are f-ing robots over there. No rational thinking.
    1
  963. lol, CCP China has been buying oil below $60 for over a year.
    1
  964.  @jimmynolet3752  Get the halal hot dogs then dude. I grew up eating Kosher hot dogs even though I'm not Jewish. Zabiha Halal Juicy Supreme Frankfurters, 900g $5.97. That's like 60 cents a hot dog. It means you are too lazy to price shop and like to complain about your life. Good luck.
    1
  965. UNRATE hit 10% back then. It's sub 4% now. Do you even look at data or just make stuff up?
    1
  966. Sure seems like everything is setup in China with the least amount of consumer protections and maximum amount of cash in companies pockets. It's a terrible business model since revenue and expenses aren't lining up properly. Plus, there is very little incentive to keep the long term members happy.
    1
  967.  @Charlie-ii5rr  No dude. I'm not going to write up a full stock report on ASML Short version: 1- all tech stocks hammered when Fed raised rates. Natural rebound 2- people shorted the market. People had to cover shorts 3- AI mania pushed all semi stocks higher (some Semi stocks have more exposure to China than others)
    1
  968.  @Charlie-ii5rr  Listen better to the video. They explicitly said the stock rebounded despite of China. If we had the multi-verse and China restrictions was the only variable, ASML would be lower. My argument is these video have shitty analysis at times. They just make stuff up.
    1
  969.  @Charlie-ii5rr  What's your beef Charlie? Are you like the CCP? and refuse to accept any facts other than your own? This specific channel does some half ass analysis. No mention of the pandemic. Walmart being over-inventoried. Trends should be multi-year and not single.
    1
  970. Congrats! You literally figured out the problem with China (by accident and not with your brain). - Birth issue The birth rate is an issue because its basically a nearly irreversible trend. Less babies produce even fewer babies in the future. 2012-2019, China births were around 16 to 17M per year. It's dropped to 10M now. Why is this important? Because babies (future adults) are GDP drivers. They have to buy housing, cars, food, pay taxes (think the Matrix ie and substitute energy with economy). You know, stuff that grows the economy and allows the CCP to spend more on the military and BRI ambitions The average citizen has little or no concern about this. They are worried about their own individual lives. The CCP worries about this because its how they stay in power. - Current situation Xi has proceeded to kneecap local tech industries, foreign business, popping the real estate bubble (3 red lines), alienating their best customers for their exports and massive lockdowns which have plummeted the economy. Somehow he managed to lower domestic spending, real estate and exports all at the same time. The CCP corruptly pushed kids to get better educations and forgot that better educated people need...white collar jobs. There just ain't enough of them. Total mismatch of labor needs. At this point, doesn't matter: blue collar or white collar. People are screwed.
    1
  971. The government doesn't allow negative press. There is no free press. Why would anyone in China think their economy was driven by a real estate bubble?
    1
  972. Can’t evaluate it through western eyes. Chinese people are robots. They’ve been trained to put up with a lot. Remember the Shanghai lockdowns?
    1
  973. Dude - it's called the price to income ratio. Pretty easy to look at cities in the US and worldwide.
    1
  974. lol, basically the cars are one big spy machine that the CCP could control. Good luck.
    1
  975. Is it though? Seems like the shrine was founded in the mid-1800s. In general without doing a lot of research, just seems like they enshrine everyone. Looks like it is run by right-wing nationalists though.
    1
  976.  @vueport99  Yes. JFC. Do you not know how the internet works?
    1
  977. Xi is an idiot. Dude should have forced local governments to enact an annual property tax back in ‘12. Would have cooled down the market + slowed down one time land sales. Way too late now. Market is totally oversupplied at high prices. The worst combination.
    1
  978. lol, you think assets aren't split after a divorce in China? Really don't understand your logic. The women's family is getting the dowry money.
    1
  979.  @Mrbfgray  Boomer! Go wallow in your hate for other people. Bro, your life ain't the same as other people. Have a bit of empathy and realize people have different upbringings. You are really an engineer and are data ignorant? - 43.2 million borrowers have federal student loan debt. The average federal student loan debt balance is $37,088, while the total average balance (including private loan debt) may be as high as $39,981. - Yes, college is still worth it: The wage gap between recent college and high school grads has been widening for decades, and grew even more last year, per new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    1
  980.  @GrandSolarEclipse  Taiwanese contractors.
    1
  981. The contrast between Chinese and Japanese societies is quite drastic. Japan’s school lunch: https://youtu.be/hL5mKE4e4uU?si=-dNutkl79yz-TOr_ (There are plenty of other Japan videos on YouTube as well.)
    1
  982. Many people in the US live in single family homes and can charge overnight (with caveats). Virtually, no one does in China. They are screwed.
    1
  983. Here’s the thing: the Saudis and ME dudes are smart. If you settle in yuan, you have to buy shitty yuan assets (crappy Chinese RE and companies). The reason why the pound, euro, dollar are popular is because you can buy long term assets with those currencies.
    1
  984. In the US, we had banks create the housing crisis with lax standards and CDOs. Here you have all the developers create the crisis on the front end. The tricky part is if individuals start default on mortgages at a mass scale.
    1
  985. Nearly all of these tall buildings have western architects and engineers. But, Chinese construction companies. It should be some of better built buildings in China.
    1
  986.  @owenb8636  Dude - this isn't your normal project. Architects / Engineers are involved in the whole process.
    1
  987. The dude at the end was only getting 200 yuan. The video did a terrible job explaining.
    1
  988. Pretty comical. Any decent FA will advise clients with a specific college fund to be in 100% safe bonds which are being held to expiration within a few years before college.
    1
  989.  @jamescollins4500  I think...you have no clue about investing. Blackrock has so much money to manage, they are invested in nearly every financial instrument in the world.
    1
  990.  @patrickcardon1643  Wasn't my point. My point is no job is safe if people stop spending money. Their economy is becoming a death spiral. Deflation is a self perpetuating mechanism while in theory inflation is self correcting (if all other levers are held constant).
    1
  991. That's the scary thing with Taiwan. Their economy might be so bad that males have no other option than join the military for an invasion.
    1
  992. CCP spent $1 trillion on BRI and upped military spending. No money left for the average person.
    1
  993. The "babies" math would have gotten the closures by 2035-2040. Now, it's more about economics.
    1
  994. 1:35 so, basically China was flooding the US State Dept with visa requests of people who never traveled to Western countries. Yeah, that’s not suspicious.
    1
  995. Like the USSR, the CCP has one hole card. Obviously, Russia went full on corruption and transferred state assets to a few people. Guizhou has debt out the wazoo, but they have a 60% stake in Kweichow Moutai. They just don't want to sell it. They could clear the debt by selling the stake.
    1
  996. Chinese people are greedy. They were making yield off their gold. That's not what a custodian does.
    1
  997. Yankee brought jobs and capital to China and somehow we became Enemy #1. Your move Pooh Bear. Show the world how your system is self sufficient.
    1
  998. lol, just off the news wires: CHINA APPROVES ISSUANCE OF EXTRA 1T YUAN SOVEREIGN BONDS I will give my 1 word analysis: D-E-S-P-E-R-A-T-I-O-N.
    1
  999. It's amazing that Chinese people just ignored the Russian invasion on Ukraine and were like, "yeah, no impact to us. Lockdowns are over. Everything is normal." Trade / manufacturing is contingent on making sure everything in the system is working smoothly for EVERYONE. War = bad, inflation = bad, Houthis = bad, Xi's threats = bad, Pandemic = bad
    1
  1000. lol, so basically the US was responsible for CCP China's success? And, now that we aren't doing business with China, we are responsible for the downfall?
    1
  1001.  @RUHappyATM  I eat about 2 dozen eggs per week. Deviled eggs are a pretty good snack and keep reasonably well in the fridge. Fried egg sandwich with cheese on toast. Classic scrambled. And, just plain hard boiled with some salt and pepper. But, that's my diet. Chinese food has eggs in a lot of different dishes.
    1
  1002.  @RUHappyATM  Eggs is usually just 1 meal a day. But, that's the beauty of eggs. It's extremely easy and fast to make. Hard boiled eggs takes 10-15 min and you can leave them in the fridge. Scrambled eggs takes 1 min. Fried egg sandwich is <5 min. It's hard to get tired of eggs since there are other easy dishes too. Fried rice and use 2-3 eggs. Some Korean dishes can be topped with eggs. I eat Korean ramen and dipped fried eggs into the soup.
    1
  1003.  @extended_e  Whenever there are huge forest fires anywhere in the world, the climate people goes nuts. Always some type of story about it. (Not a knock against climate people.)
    1
  1004. Yeah, no. I don't think you understand the difference between inflation and deflation.
    1
  1005. Imploding themselves at this point. Everyone is spending less which is going to get more people fired. And, people will spend even less. And, even more people will get fired.
    1
  1006.  @patriotenfield3276  Literally proving my point. Chinese people will break the law to stay in Japan.
    1
  1007. The funny part is the CCP is publishing the data. They could easily stop getting out ride hailing licenses and restrict the supply. Then, it would balance out the demand and they could make a living wage. CCP doesn’t care though.
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  1008.  @makokx7063  Seems very anecdotal, but ok.
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  1009. Too lazy to get the detailed info, but random searching. There are a ton of real estate companies that defaulted on their debt. Pretty funny that no one talks about Evergrande and Country Garden anymore who have 500 billion USD in debt.
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  1010. Hard to figure out what is going on: CCP lies about the top down numbers. These videos are snippets of bottoms up. Neither give a clear picture. I try to pay attention to the western companies that breakout China data, but that's not a true representation either.
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