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HKim0072
China Observer
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Comments by "HKim0072" (@HKim0072) on "Ruble to USD at 200:1, Near Collapse! Russians Swap RMB for USD;Yuan at Risk,Drains China’s Reserves" video.
Dude - you can't just google the rate. The (up to) 200 to 1 is the real rate that people in Russia can buy dollars. You people need to educate yourself on how the real world works.
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5:40 This just makes no sense. Banks don't load up their balance sheet with EM debt. It's a specialty shop business or a very low portion of the investments. Too lazy to look it up, but lots of this debt is heavily discounted already.
8
You realize that's an arbitrary number the Russian Central bank set right? A non-market number not based supply and demand or fx trading.
8
Go to Russia and try to get that rate. The bank will laugh at you.
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lol, I had a well reasoned comment about UST and it got shadowbanned (invisible). And, all the bot comments get through the AI censors. Makes you question the AI capabilities of big tech. Got posted after a weird delay.
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The buy sell spread is huge. According to the Financial Times, Moex' resulting dollar restriction caused the greenback's rate to spike among local banks. Where the central exchange offered the US currency at under 90 rubles, some lenders have now sold it for 120-200 rubles.
4
Weird video. Lots of inaccuracies. Not sure if I want to time stamp and refute them all. I'll just talk about the UST. All of the US treasury holdings are underwater for the CCP. A mass amount of selling will push the yield even higher and make them realize their losses at an even higher rate. Likely, looking at a $100B loss. Even trickier is their MBS holdings. It's an illiquid market. Nearly impossible to sell their holdings in a short period of time.
4
That's literally the rate the Russian Central bank set. You really don't understand how fx works. haha, you think that is the free float rate?
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@Alejandra-cv7rj lol, the ruble doesn't free float. Also, the ruble was in the 70s in late 2021. The ruble in your lifetime has never gotten stronger. It was 6 to 1 at one point.
2
@realist7239 The spread is big, but likely not that big. (using the bad data above) If a Russian person goes into a bank and wants dollars, they have to give 400 rubles and they will receive 1 dollar. If a Russian person wants rubles and gives 1 dollar, they only get 50 rubles. It's called the buy-sell spread (or bid-ask).
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wuuuuuuummmmaaaaaoooooo alert. Or strangely, a Russian shill. lol, why are you adding fiduciary into your comment? It makes no sense.
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@roberthewko6715 If a Russian bought dollars in 1997, they have made 20x their investment. The ruble was 6 to 1 back then.
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@cymeriandesigns Obviously, you need to give more rubles to get 1 dollar than the number that the Russian Central Bank picked out of a hat. And, yes. You aren't getting that many rubles if you give them a dollar.
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@JohnWerner-te5zy lol, "western institutions". Instead of making stuff up with some weird BMW example, go figure out the arbitrage number from Kazakhstan.
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Nothing is more annoying than the 100 comments talking about the "googling" Ruble fx rate. People think they can take a sliver of information and understand. - ruble doesn't free float - Russian central bank set the 88 rate - Russia's central exchange has barred dollar and euro trading It's a fake number. Financial Times did real journalism and found out the rate Russia banks / black market is trading. It's a range of 120-200 to 1. If you don't live in Russia, you don't know what the real rate is. And, yes. Financial Times is behind a paywall, so it won't show up when you google.
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