Comments by "HKim0072" (@HKim0072) on "Can't Afford, Many Close!Takeout Restaurant Daily Revenue Only $36; Starbucks China Loses 2M Patrons" video.

Basically, it's the multiplier effect. Its one of the first concepts you learn in Econ 101. Works both ways. $1 less in spending isn't just $1. It rips through the whole economy. You can't have 25% of your GDP down -20% or more and not fix or combat it. Real estate has been trending lower for a year now (maybe longer. Can't remember when new home sales started plummeting). Was easy just to say it was the lockdowns last year. But, really it was real estate dragging everything lower.
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It's just math. I've been doing the calculations for a year now. Real estate has been -20% for a while now. That's 25% of their GDP. -20% = -5% hit to GDP -25% = -6.2% hit to GDP -30% = -7.5% hit to GDP Then add in less exports. Less industrial jobs. Less foreign investment. Only thing that might be up is government spending. The only "positive"...is they are starting to lap bad numbers, lol. Since GDP is a year over year number, the negative change won't be as bad. Edit: oh yeah, just as a reference point, US GDP was down -2.9% in 2009. And, everything was going down the drain.
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lol, that worked well in the Soviet Union. And, Mao's China. Amusingly, its the opposite. CCP China needs to privatize all their state assets and distribute the wealth to their citizens. Not just cash payments, but use the money to build up social services etc.
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Need to go back further. They forcefully and unnaturally pushed an economic cycle into a tighter window. Stuff breaks down eventually. Breakneck speed growth that is artificially is not healthy. Short version: the middle class never had time to develop. At least when the Japanese went through their asset bubble, they had 40+ years of industrial development over time.
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Reminds me of the Matrix: That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.
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@CanMav Yeap, people like to make silly comparisons: ie US growth is only 2-3% vs China's "whatever fake data GDP". If the US GDP is growing at 5%, something serious went wrong or is going to break down. (Michael Pettis has been talking about China's forced growth for a while now.)
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@CanMav I have to give them a free pass a bit. I have a BA in Finance and was convinced that China's GDP would surpass the US at some point. I just never dug into the details and believed the headlines. And, ignored warning signs like Citron in 2012 (Evergrande) etc. Edit: I think BIDU was one of the few Chinese stocks available back in the day. I bought in 2011ish and sold 2 years later at a small loss. It was such a dog. It's literally lower today than I sold 10 years ago.
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Horrible take. This isn't WW2 where you are throwing a mass amount of equipment and people into battle. Would be marginal extra industrial production in a invasion of Taiwan.
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lol, just off the news wires: CHINA APPROVES ISSUANCE OF EXTRA 1T YUAN SOVEREIGN BONDS I will give my 1 word analysis: D-E-S-P-E-R-A-T-I-O-N.
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