Comments by "HKim0072" (@HKim0072) on "China Update" channel.

  1. Greedy Chinese think they can break the laws of economics: oversupply the market AND sustain high prices.
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  2. I'm not a fan of Kyle Bass, but his thinking is exactly like mine. If you have 25% of the economy (real estate) down -20% for 2 years back-to-back, it's game over. It's nearly impossible to combat that type of decline regardless of any exports increase. Then, add in weak consumer spending. Add in poor consumer confidence. Add in a massive loss of wealth since 70% of everyone's wealth was tied to real estate. Once I saw new home sales a huge negative comp in 2023 which was on top of a huge negative comp, it confirmed things were going to get bad. I was baffled by old man Charlie Munger and a few prominent hedge fund dudes being lapdogs to Pooh Bear and still talking up China.
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  3. It's always projection from the Chinese. The use these bag of tricks all the time, so they assume everyone else does. Dude has been injured 3 times within 2 months in 2023. Lionel Messi ended his final match of the calendar year with a groin injury that forced him to be substituted in Argentina's 1-0 win over Brazil on Tuesday at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Hundreds of thousands of MLS ticket buyers missed out this year due to Messi sitting out games.
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  4.  @Thichaou  It's literally how China has operated. You can't start a business in China without a joint venture.
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  5.  @Thichaou  They aren't getting banned. They are having to divest their investment. They can either sell or not operate in the US.
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  6. That's why no one takes them seriously with their rebuttals.
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  7. The old "lie flat" and "let it rot" policy, lol.
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  8. That's not a bug, but a feature. Having checks and balances is essential.
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  9.  @Thichaou  Exactly, you play by the rules of the home country. Did someone put a gun to Bytedance's head to do business in the US?
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  10. Just a reminder: Pooh Bear is a middle school boy playing Sim City. Literally, the dude only has a middle school education since he was sent to the rural area during high school and didn't get a backdoor admission to college until he was 23.
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  11. It's always projection with them.
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  12. A funny example out of the FT article was a dude calling the local police to help them. The local police then arrested the police members from the distant province.
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  13. Everything is so opaque, it's not even a swag. It's just a random guess at this point.
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  14. Even God is trying to slowdown Xi from invading Taiwan.
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  15. Had to look it up out of curiosity yesterday. Evergrande doesn't hold the record for losses. AOL-TW was close to 100B. So was AIG (and that was a 1 year loss vs 2 year for Evergrande).
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  16. umm, anyone buying a BMW in China is not middle class.
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  17. You know what no one ever says about the dollar...what is replacing it? Fx is a zero sum game. What currency is going to soak up all the liquidity that is flowing out from the dollar.
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  18. The funny part is they'll inject $300B into their stock market and then sell when it rises and it will go down again, lol. Right in time to suck in more average Chinese retail investors.
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  19. It’s either: 1- no one is meeting loan requirements 2- banks are being forced to buy government debt and don’t have the funds to loan out
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  20. But, housing is everything. The other parts are secondary. People are already stretched to meet mortgage payments. Then think about if values drop by -20%, people just lost their entire down payment. Any bigger drop and they are underwater in their mortgage. That has a domino effect of no new housing starts, pinches domestic spending and a death spiral. Foreign capital and foreign business is the sideshow.
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  21.  @Matt_K  lol, this is dumb. They have a very small portion of their assets in China. JFC. Vanguard is a fricken ETF / Mutual fund company. THEY HAVE NO RISK. _Edit: people have to get comfortable with basic math, % with large numbers. Blackrock has a $9.5 trillion AUM. Even if they have 5% of their assets in China, it "seems" like a big number: $500B. But, that's how asset allocation works. Blackrock ain't going under if they lose -50% on 5% of their assets = -2.5% hit on their assets_
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  22.  @cobrakai3732  Not to sound too condescending, but it's because the average Chinese person doesn't play organized sports. Even a dumb high school jock in the US knows that a return from a soft tissue injury is all done by feel. And, trainers are way more cautious now. If something feels even a bit "off", they shut players down.
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  23. Non-serious info: China social media buzz about Yellen dining at local place, person of her standing in US government eating with average Chinese in open setting. Restaurant posts on account “What a magical day.”
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  24. Geez, what were the clues about RE? Non-expert here. We knew they were screwed 1-2 years ago.
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  25. Look up the SSE index (Shanghai). It's at the same spot as...2009. 15 years and their stock market has gone nowhere. It's like the XBI sector (biotechs) which hasn't moved since 2015.
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  26. Their down payment system was pretty hefty. Allowed for "a lot" of room for banks. It cushions the blow some, but once prices started to sink below -30%, a lot of condos went into negative equity.
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  27. 3:19 The chart highlights the first tier cities of price to income. Sure, that's an issue, but doesn't show the whole problem. The problem is that 2nd, 3rd and even some 4th tier cities had a higher price to income ratio than large western cities.
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  28. 😂😂😂 Don't worry. Just watch some more hate on Fox News.
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  29. Asset side of the balance sheet is getting devalued. Creates a loss on the operating statement. Doesn't immediately impact CF, but I'd imagine they had loans tied to higher asset values. Going to be a mess until the housing market bottoms. CF will get impacted because these assets can't be sold at the higher price, but gets recognized over time. Mark to market (MTM) is a method of measuring the fair value of accounts that can fluctuate over time, such as assets and liabilities. Mark to market aims to provide a realistic appraisal of an institution's or company's current financial situation based on current market conditions
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  30. lol, just wait until housing prices drop further. Welcome to the concept of negative equity.
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  31. There are a few tangential companies ie engine makers that could be construed as defense contractors. The big boys like LMT NOC etc have zero contracting with China.
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  32. Gold can be a small supplemental piece of reserves for large countries. The US government has the most gold at $500Bish. It's all window dressing for large countries.
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  33. lol, they've been in a recession since last year. Impossible that Q4 was not negative.
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  34. lol, then they will enact more taxes to fund their budgets.
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  35. Apple is spending around 75% of their free cash flow on stock buybacks (and this is low for them). BABA is spending around 1/3 of their free cash flow on stock buybacks. And, they have $80B in cash on their balance sheet. That's all you need to know. If a company with a ton of extra cash isn't loading up on their own stock, you shouldn't either.
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  36. Underwater mortgages aren't a risk to the system in China. More of a risk to the economy since people feel / become poor. In the US, people would just walk away from the mortgage. In China, you have to keep paying the bank regardless if you default, foreclosed, die etc, lol.
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  37.  @lawrencesmith9059  10yr UST is 4.42% vs 10yr CCP at 2.32%. What's your beef?
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  38.  @Sp1tfire100  lol, NVDA is not a defense contractor.
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  39. Pettis cut his teeth in the industry as a International bond trader. Was his background come to the forefront and not just a plain economist.
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  40. Actually, the rules are / were the opposite. Downpayments on 2nd, 3rd, etc were required to be higher. Was one of the rules implemented to try to slow down the bubble.
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  41. A few differences: - I don’t think Japan had oversupply in real estate. Just bubble pricing - Japan had / has a much stronger middle class - Japan has been about quality and not a race to the bottom - way more ethics / morals in Japan Lost decade implies stagnation. China likely will be sliding slowly.
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  42.  @thomassimmer5186  JFC dude. China has an M2 of $40T.
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  43. Define "required funds". And, how does one just magically "inflate" a market? Everyone points to Japan as the case study. That's probably your starting point to get some answers.
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  44. CCP has a plethora of foreign reserves. Nearly impossible to actually break the yuan (especially with CCP currency controls).
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  45. Congrats Country Garden! They posted a net loss of $24B in 2023. They sliced the loss to only $1.75B in the front half of 2024.
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  46. I’d argue the opposite: Chinese youth is over educated. I’m pretty sure my numbers are right: 12M graduates. I think births in 2000 is around 18M.
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  47.  @_endless_road_1413  In theory, it's the cheaper method. Chinese citizens have paid inflated prices on a home and it will cost maybe 1/4 of the home value to finish and hand over the property.
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  48. You fail to understand how the executive branch works. Blinken has no personal position. He represents the office of the presidency in foreign affairs.
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  49. State run companies.
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  50.  @Defective1313  Have no idea what the total value on the housing market is anymore. It was in the $50 trillion range. CCP can't manipulate a $50 trillion market. Look at the stock market. It's $10 trillion and it's terrible. Edit: FRED has Italy housing prices over time. I could see something like that. And, Italy has some beautiful old houses + you actually own it and don't lease it from the CCP.
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