Youtube comments of Two Bit da Vinci (@TwoBitDaVinci).
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[Ricky] $10,000 was my TOTAL cost, including panels, micro inverters, installation materials, installation labor, permits and everything else.
And as far as maintenance costs, in nearly 6 years, I've paid $0. Do you have solar panels? I made this video because I do, and I wanted to share the experience with you guys.
We have a follow up video that answers all these question airing Oct 10, so subscribe and stay tuned!
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[CHRIS] Thanks for the personal experience with your Model S, and the great points. It doesn't sound like the Model S worked out very well for you, primarily due to brakes, alignment, and tires, something we were not aware of. As far as trading in or selling, I guess we will need to wait to see if the Model 3 at around 1/4 or 1/3 the cost of the Model S, will see the same sort of resale issues. And the cold weather is definitely something others have pointed out and it would be interesting to see how much the battery capacity drops at various temps. As for quality control, I have heard a lot of fit and finish complaints, I wonder if this will extend to the Model 3.
I am personally looking at leasing something like a Chevy Bolt, simply because then I don't need to worry about most of the issues you encountered. Maybe one day Tesla will lease Model 3s too.
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Hello, Ricky here, just saw your video and wanted to chime in. First of all I really liked the water simulations and there was some great explanations in the video.
But I'll challenge you on what you said at the end. You said its easier to make videos on new research, than it is to debunk. On that I disagree, I think "busting" things is WAY easier, its why people stop to see train wrecks.
There is nearly no one showcasing the research happening around the world. I still don't understand why this new effect seems implausible to you. There is still a lot we don't know. I'm really tempted to try to create some green laser setup and test it myself!
It also irks me that you do what seems like a character attack on me, and use my video, and my animations.
In many ways, the "easy" way to get views, is taking other peoples work and adding your soundtrack. I feel WAY too much of my video is used here and that really bothers me, you're profiting off my work.
That being said, I'd love to have you on a livestream so we can chat. I find you fascinating, and I'd love to learn more and I think it would be really good fun.
There's no yin without the yang, you make it your lives work to debunk, and I make it mine to raise awareness of stuff happening in the world. I think honestly the world needs BOTH :) I hear you, that there have been false claims, and as you state, sometimes its not malicious, and other times it is.
I'm happy to host, and again, thanks for listening. Please reach out if you're interested, I think it would be great. Thanks again, and cheers
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[Ricky] You'd be surprised... I own two cars... Honda Civic 2012, and a Honda Pilot 2012. These cars will last 300k Miles with very little effort. WIth that said, to get to 300k miles I'll have to do oil changes every 7k miles, coolant flushes every 50k miles, timing belt and water pump every 100k miles, and spark plugs every 90k miles. Electric motors aren't some small subset, they power all of life. From the newest generation of electromagnetic launch systems of carriers, to starters, to EV motors, fork lifts... this isn't some new tech. This is 100% better tech than any petrol car. The problem has ALWAYS simply been storage. petrol was king for 100 years, but guess what Tesla is setting out to do? change all that. The petrol car is in its final stages, in 2030, lets chat... and see who's right.
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There are always trolls like you, but will respond anyway. You want to know what is funny? Read the comments and you will see that we get accused of being biased against the Bolt as well as against the Tesla, so you really can't win. We also get accused of being paid by Big Oil, Big EV, Big Coconut Cream pie, and on and on...
Given that I am in the market for an EV and PHEV, and will likely not be getting a Tesla product because I prefer leasing, I will probably end up with at least on GM product (Bolt or Volt). So I don't think we ever encouraged anyone to buy one over the other. So the answer is no, we will not be adding any disclaimers, since we don't make advertisements, and try to present our research in a balanced way. But thanks for the input.
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By the way these's green technologies aren't just toys for the rich. There are areas in India where electricity was almost non-existant, or at best a few hours a day. India is building huge solar farms in some of these rural areas to provide power for people that never had it. The Sun is a resource all nations share, which is not true for oil or natural gas or coal.
Oil companies get orders of magnitude more subsidies, and also with clever accounting, always end up paying almost no corporate taxes. Is that fair?
At least with a EV credit, or solar credit, the benefit is going to individual Americans, or citizens right? Isn't that better than subsidies for billionaires in the form of oil subsidies?
ALso think about this, how much electricity is required to refile 1 gallon of gasoline? What if instead, we just directly charged an EV. Oh, and even if you're a lower income person, you can still do a solar city type system to get solar, and just use them as your utility instead of the crazy high prices here in CA.
These are all options that green energy opens up, options for which there is no equivalent in the oil world. Those who old the oil producing lands have the power, and there's nothing you or I can do about that. This is a fundamental shift. Honestly I don't understand why it isn't exciting to you!
Also, what would you estimate the worldwide fatalities from wars fought over oil, and cancer rates from smog to be? That's truly a sad thought.
Look, we love your comment, you're clearly thinking and we want to make future videos that cover these topics and we want to do so fairly. We love hearing the critics, this would be a super boring channel if every comment was "I love EVs!" lol
so thank you, we hope you'll consider subscribing, seriously, because we want to hear more from you. Great content is coming up soon!
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[CHRIS] Well said, thank you for the insightful comments. We have gotten requests for a video on true environmental impact (WtW as you call it), which includes manufacturing, transport, all the electricity and it's sources that go into production and ownership, etc. It's a big, hairy topic, but we are still considering it. And thank you for being one of the few to understand we just showed one way of determining TCO, and provided a free calculator everyone can use for their own set of requirements, locale, etc.
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[CHRIS] Good point on the warranties, and as for the product/install warranties, it ultimately comes down to whether that company will be around in 10 or 20 years to honor it. As for panel degradation, that sounds correct, though Ricky has a 30 year warranty on his Canadian Solar panels and 80% guaranteed output. The Enphase microinverters have a 25 year warranty, but I think he would have to go to the manufacturer for those. Not sure on the purchase vs. per-pay, depends on the details if you could provide that, it would be helpful. Bottom line is that in SoCal, electricity prices continue to go up at an alarming rate, so if you can establish a fixed cost for say 20 years that actually makes financial sense today, it is likely to make even more financial sense in 5, 10 or 15 years.
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[CHRIS] Thanks for the clarification, and we definitely are working on improving our videos, both in terms of production value and precise details. It is interesting that you felt we were biased toward the Honda, some have commented we were biased toward the Tesla, others biased against the Tesla. :-)
We both went into this video not really knowing how the numbers would shake out, and also knowing that some of the numbers are substitutes for real data that just won't be available until the Model 3 has been out awhile.
Rather than absolute conclusions, I think the takeaway of this video should be to show one way of breaking things down, and some tools that everyone can use for their own situation.
I know my back of mind thoughts were that the Honda would be by far the lowest TCO, and now it makes give more serious consideration to an EV, the Model 3 specifically. Though I have leased a couple dozen cars over the years, so if I could lease a Model 3, or more likely a Chevy Bolt, it will be a simple matter of comparing monthly lease payments, and the Electricity vs. Gas costs, since I won't likely worry about maintenance or reselling the vehicle in 3 years.
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[Ricky] so funny you mentioned tucker! we made a video on tucker we really loved, but it never got much love.
I also agree with you, i think it speaks to the modern condition, where people are so willing to trust technology, give up privacy etc.. Can you imagine someone from 50 years ago, just blinding trust that a car would drive itself?
This is still early days, and Tesla is #1 in this space and only getting better, but I agree, I dont drive much, but I enjoy it when I do, especially if the car is fast and sporty.
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[CHRIS] Ricky's figures are on Solar Panels, Inverters, and he doesn't have batteries. His install was 6 years ago, and did come with a 25 year warranty on the panels and inverters, with guaranteed output. When he did it, the ROI is a lot longer than it is now, but he did have the advantage of being grandfathered into Net Metering. So far his maintenance costs have just been his time to wipe off the panels periodically. I think panels have gotten so cheap now, that if they last even 4 or 5 years, it is cheap enough just to replace the panels as they fail, and ROI can be very short for some, depending on Sun Hours, Electricity Cost & Use, etc. But you are right, utility companies (like all for profit companies), will do what they can to keep their piece of the pie and more.
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[CHRIS] It's about a few things: energy independence, environmental concerns (if you that's your thing), and then it's about how long it will take to get your money back if you choose to go forward. If your goal is to maximize growth on a given amount of investment money, Solar isn't probably even in the top 10, and I don't think we ever claimed that. We did make a follow up video more focused on how to decide if Solar makes sense for each situation, enabling an informed decision: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBsG4laZyEA
Also keep in mind that Ricky got Solar more than 6 years ago, and Solar panel prices have fallen, and in some areas like ours, electricity prices have surged forward. Here is some history on SDG&E electricity rates (Our Location in San Diego, CA, USA):2001: Tier 1 $0.06/kWh Tier 4 $0.09/kWh Summer Rates
2011: Tier 1 $0.14/kWh Tier 4 $0.27/kWh Summer Rates
2018: Tier 1 $0.27/kWh Tier 2 $0.48/kWh Summer Rates
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[CHRIS] I am so laughing out loud. Not really. But yes, maintenance is covered for the Beemer for first 3 years. The Tesla we quoted was for the Model S (our bad), and completely optional and many won't even use it. But use the data you like for your situation, and make an informed decision based on that. But I thought the Tesla TCO was pretty compelling, even if we didn't get everything perfect. Oh and by the way, we have been accused of being paid by BMW, Honda, Tesla, Big Oil, Small Oil, Utility companies, and the list goes on and on.
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[Ricky] If you're a geologist, I don't have to explain the direct subsidies, and indirect subsidies Oil companies received. You're a college graduate and you can Google it, and make up your own mind. I'm not a liberal, for me, I'm all about being self-reliant. We have future videos planned to tackle every angle of this, subscribe if you want to be around to see it, or don't. Best of luck, and btw very cool you're a geologist, I love all things science, but not as familiar with Geology as I'd like to be. Cheers mate
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[CHRIS] Pretty interesting situation. Depending on the region and utility, you might be able to sell energy back to the utility. If you are on net metering, that generally means you just get a credit in the form of energy you "sell" and anything you use goes against that credit, even later in the year. But some utils want to sell you energy at one retail rate, but pay you a much lower wholesale rate, which is much less compelling for the consumer.
In your case batteries probably don't make a lot of sense because during summer, you potentially could make all the energy you use (and possibly more), 24 hours a day, and in the winter, there really isn't any energy to store.
I would talk to your utility company, and also look at the Sun Hour calculator we linked in the video. It also helps to know your electricity rate, and if there are tiers based on usage, time of use, or different rates throughout the year.
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[CHRIS]
As for the comparison to the BMW, sure we could have chosen a 320i, or we could have chosen a VW. Or a Mercedes. Or...
That's why we provided a calculator, where you can enter all your own data and then share your findings. There will never be an apples to apples comparison, there are just too many differences between makes and models.
We did fail on explaining the phased tax credits, and that's on us. But we did provide both with and without the tax credit, depending on if it's still available in the future.
As to the .10 kWh electric costs, that was for Texas, and we also included prices for California. If you watch you will see that we provided gas and electric for both states. Again, use the calculator for your own use case. We weren't going to cover all 50 states or all of Europe.
The BMW cost for projected repair maintenance for year 3 is from Edmunds.com, the same data source we used for the Honda Civic. If you have a better data source, we might use this on a future video.
As for Tesla Model costs like the center screen replacement and drive unit, these are good points. Because the Model 3 hasn't had any time to provide data on out of warranty repairs, we chose not to include it. The Model 3 has a 4 year/50K basic & 8 year/100K drivetrain warranty.
It's interesting that you think we stacked the deck in favor of the Tesla, as we have had many commenters state exactly the opposite. Mainly because we included recommended maintenance based on Model S. We should have explained that better.
We went into this video without any preconceptions and just tried to show the process we used to break things down and tried to share that process and tools, even if we didn't explain things as precisely as we could have. We will try better next time.
With a couple of online tools, anyone can put in their own car selection, prices, maintenance, electricity costs, gas costs, and come up with a personalized answer.
If you have a better method, we would love to hear it.
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[CHRIS] While your original questions could be an entire topic of (a different) video, I have read almost every single one of the couple hundred comments since yesterday, and there are quite a few, just like me, considering these two cars and many who chose the Bolt over the Model 3. And yes I think the Model 3 looks way sexier, but pragmatism wins over for many of us. In my case it is availability, potential full tax credit, potential ability to negotiate, and most important to me, ability to lease. These win out over looks, at the end of it all, I need to get to work and back. I think your points are fair, but they are a standalone video, at least for us.
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[CHRIS] Utility companies had net metering for awhile when very few had solar, now it's starting to go away. I don't have a problem with utility companies making money, and you can be damn sure they are going to do whatever it takes to keep making profits. During power shortages, I think net metering was able provide something valuable to the utilities, but it's when they don't really need the energy, that storage is expensive for them, and they can buy it at wholesale for much less. You make good points, but the reality is that alternative energy production is on the rise, regardless of how the law allow consumers to make, sell, and use that energy.
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[CHRIS] So stop mentioning a legal Federal Tax Credit? Not sure how that is fake, and if you don't like people talking about (or using) a legal tax credit, whether it be personal or for a corporation, then you could do your part to get the laws changed. Until then, we are not going to stop mentioning it. Keep in mind there are tons of tax deductions and credits that are legal in the US, and you can definitely opt out of taking them, but please don't tell us they are fake or that we are stealing someone else's money.
I can tell you that I work from about Jan to April for free, and some of that tax money goes to my benefit, but a ton of it goes to who knows where, and guess what? That's the way it goes, and I would never say someone that is using government assistance is stealing from me, nor would I say that someone who bought solar is stealing from me. If I don't like it, I either get the laws changed, or move.
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[Ricky] Mark how much experience do you have in business? Here's one part, there are two costs to making a car. There's non-recurring, which are costs paid before, but not after. Examples include engineering design testing and manufacturing setup. Once those costs are paid, you owe X dollars. Now when you sell a Model S let's say, there are recurring costs, materials, assembly costs labor etc. Now the goal has to be after recurring costs, to not only cover those but to eventually after N cars, cover the non-recurring. Tesla makes money on each Model S my friend. It's an 80k car, and those profits help pay for the non-recurring and also for non-recurring on future models like the Model 3.
Look there is a lot of FUD out there from people who have something to gain from Tesla failing, legacy carmakers, short sellers etc. But our goal here is to cover each and every one of these topics in the coming months, and we will!
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Yeah, this is definitely tricky territory, and that article is interesting, thanks for sharing. I have owned several sedans, hatchbacks, and SUVs. I think for me at least, it's more about the shape of "hole" I'm trying to jam stuff into. A sedan can work quite nicely for something like Costco with fairly short boxes, right up until you try to fit that "small" fridge any which way you can, and the sedan opening is just not tall or wide enough, which is where the Bolt looks to have an advantage, being a hatchback with laydown seats, AND a false cargo door. I need to see my friends in person!
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[CHRIS] I have a 1500 sq ft. condo, and just to keep the basics like refrigerator and security cameras, etc. running, I am at a baseline of about .5 kWh, so that's 12 kWh per day. Running microwaves, TVs, AC in the summer, Heat in the winter, etc., I averaged 6000 kWh for 2017, or 500 kWh per month, or about 17 kWh per month. So on a 3000 sq. ft. house, depending on if you have computers running, larger AC/Heat unit, outdoor lighting, electric ovens, etc., I can see 31 kWh/day to not be too crazy. But yeah, it's on the high side.
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[Ricky] There is a reason we chose the civic, I'm a huge Honda fan. I have owned like 8, and I'm only 34 years old. Currently, we have a 2012 Civic and 2012 Pilot. The pilot just crossed 100k, so we spent about $2000 on water pump, timing belt, new spark plugs, brakes, all new synthetic fluids (transmission, brakes, engine oil etc.) that car won't be getting anything other than oil changes for the next 50-70k miles. We used figured that are based on recommended maintenance for all 3 cars. The tesla, honestly probably wouldn't require any maintenance at all for 5 years. But manufactures can "recommend" all they want ;)
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What are you talking about? The house is 1000 square feet, living room, (where the team works), bathroom, bedroom (our recording studio) and kitchen. It's on a foundation, I was literally under it in the video. the home is built like a tank, back when 2x4's were actually 2in by 4in. The house is built amazingly well, but the electrical was crap. Also it was not insulated, many homes in CA that are older aren't. In San Diego our weather is super mild, so they cheaped out. Newer homes of course are insulated, and now mine is too. I will cover that in a future video.
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[CHRIS] How did you know we were Mr. Musk's sex slaves?!? That was supposed to be hush hush! And yes, we are considering future video(s) that compare other vehicles, likely some pure EVs and maybe some Hybrids vs EVs. But then we will be accused of being Chevy, BMW, Nissan, VW, Tesla, Toyota, and Fiat Fanboys all simultaneously, but we can take one for the team. And for the record, I will not be a Sex Slave for BMW or VW, just for the record. The rest are fine though.
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Yeah I hear you, but here's the thing, there are costs to everything. Think about the destruction decades of oil have caused? Wars, oil tanker spills, smog levels in big cities, it's not a pretty picture. I think if you look at it from a financial perspective, I'd agree EVs aren't quite there yet. But Oil won't work forever, so we have a few options, we can go through the learning and growing pains now, and be ready to switch before we have to... or get caught with out pants down. And if worldwide oil levels started dropping, and we didn't have a replacement, could you imagine the instabilities, and conflicts and business crashes that would arise?
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[CHRIS] It was tempting to use anecdotal (real world) numbers for maintenance, as we probably all know someone who has a 10 year old Civic, and they barely get oil changes with not a single problem...But we needed to use a tool like Edmunds that takes tons of historical data, and does it's best to predict. I would say Edmunds was high, but so was Tesla. And since no comparison is perfect; we just tried to show people how they might break things down in their situation, use the calculator tools, and then make an informed decision. I know the TCO of the Tesla really surprised me.
My friend just leased a Bolt, and aside from the fact that I now refuse to drive with him, I think he is proof that when it makes sense for the wallet, it starts to take hold for the masses. I love my Mazdas, but damn if I don't want to wait in the Costco gas line ever again. Maybe I will get an electric when this Mazda's lease is over.
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[CHRIS] Misleading? When we made the video, no Model 3s were available at any price. The 3 people I know that put down deposits will only be taking delivery of a Model 3 at $35K, simply because it is already at the top of their budget. And while that is anecdotal data, based on the data I could find, somewhere around 400,000 to 500,000 reservation deposits have been made, and only about 20,000-30,000 Model 3s have been delivered. Even though all delivered so far have been more than $35K, how can you say the vast majority of customers will buy a more expensive version given that only about 5% of reservations have been delivered?
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[CHRIS] We have an umbrella, so no worries about the rain. What we also didn't factor in correctly is how high utility rates would rise in the year since the video was made. It is now $0.271/$0.475 for summer and $0.23/$0.40 for winter, here in San Diego. If rates continue to climb like they have, they are likely to meet or exceed time value of money, but I am no financial advisoer. And of course going solar is not a purely financial investment that we would suggest is better than you and dozens of others have suggested (like Bonds, Stocks, Mutual Funds, Cryptocurrency, and Subway franchises). It needs to be something you want to do, and also needs to make some financial sense, and then use a calculator to decide if that second part is tolerable. Add batteries to the mix, and all of a sudden a 3rd element becomes feasible: independence from the utility company. What is that worth? We made a video on things to ask before going solar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBsG4laZyEA
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[CHRIS] I am in a condominium, and there is no solar allowed currently (who knows, it might change). But even if it was allowed, we have limited space, and so the payoff would take some time, probably 7+ years.
Another friend however, has 6 acres, so he will likely buy a bunch of cheap panels and some Edison cells, since he has pretty much unlimited room. His heating, water heater, and just about everything else is electric, and the other option is propane, which is pretty expensive. Given the California electric prices, he can probably make it pay off in less than 5 years. And the hope would be that in 5 years, prices drop even further, and perhaps he could produce more than he consumes.
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actually not true, some peole will charge at work, or while shopping. some will charge at home. Then all these cars in the future could be the storage, for excess wind and solar, and help stabilize the grid. ALso over 10% of all energy in the U.S. today is spent in refining oil. Lots of factors and it's definitely interesting.
AI will likely use more power than EVs here soon... but here's the thing, if you have demand, in a free market people will want to make money and provide it. making electricity will be lucrative, as it already is. as demand for oil drops, the opposite will happen there, and prices will shoot up and drive the cycle further. It's classic disruption and has happened over and over, through the years.
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no, its not perfect, but it's truly amazing. the opportunities, the salaries, the weather, the food, the culture, its best on Earth. It's expensive when you look at it from the outside, but salaries are way higher here too. I travel a lot and love a lot of places, but California, is special. cheers!
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that's not efficiency, that's solar angle, which is a calculation of solar flux, or how close to 90 degrees the sunlight is coming in. you'll have lower input in winter or in the evenings, because the flux of solar input is decreased. you can picture this, but look at solar panels from the angle the sun is, and you'll it looks small because the angle skews it. this reduces production, but has nothing to do with efficiency, which is constant, and only measures of the incoming light, how much is converted. cheers!
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when reservoirs are full, water is just dumped into the ocean, this could address that. pump out water before big storms, to then replenish... that's a net sum. "don't live in the desert" ... California has the best weather on Earth, which coupled with very fertile central valley soil, makes it a great place to grow stuff, if we can get water. Also in San Diego, I use neither heating or cooling for my home, like over 300 days a year. That's a huge savings, and why most other states use much more energy. if 40M californians lived elsewhere, the impact to energy usage would be massive... that's why this isn't such a straight forward answer. cheers
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Jonathan, I don't think it wise, to say why something great, is not needed. Here's why it's needed... every person who has an EV has a HUGE battery storage that does nothing 90% of the day everyday. If all EVs were plugged to the grid, we could eliminate all needs for peaker power plants, plus pay out to the owners for their power contributions. my car 75kWh, my powerwall 13. Tesla won't do this, because then i'd be using up the useful life of my battery, while not accruing any miles. But if a battery had huge life, that's all possible. So rather than say something great is not needed, lets think about all the new great things, some new greatness, can bring.
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well being purely self-sufficient isn't possible for everyone. It's kind of a function of energy usage vs. roof space. So a single family home like mine will work, but an apartment complex or a big industrial facility wouldn't. Second, let's say you have 5 straight days of clouds and storms, even people with solar might need to buy in that scenario. Currently, the grid connects entire countries, so if it was sunny in Nevada, but not California, we could make that work, and vice versa. So again I think the grid is a valuable thing, and I think it'll be lucrative for utilities in the future. However, dirty energy sources, are going to get increasingly cost prohibitive. If everyone starts going solar, I think it's coal and natural gas plants that suffer most. Once homeowners also start getting big battery storage solutions, well then peakers, or plants that only fire up when energy needs are super high, will be all but obsolete.
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