Comments by "The Immortal" (@theimmortal4718) on "Military History Visualized"
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I'm not sure if the paradigm isn't shifting
Armor is vulnerable to ambush by ATGMs and infantry while on the move, and in the defense they are very vulnerable to artillery and drones.
The USMC is replacing their 120mm mortars with the Hero 120 midrange loitering munition. Precision strikes from up to 60K with a javelin warhead in a 40 pound package. They can carry a dozen in a small truck. Small platoon sized elements can carry these, along with javelins and stingers, and still have a stealthy signature on the battlefield.
The HiMARS will replace most tube artillery in the USMC, hitting high value targets and move quickly before suffering counter battery fire.
It's possible that combat will rely on a forces ability to move quickly, deliver precision firepower onto targets beyond line of sight, and avoid detection by air. The armored vehicles heavy weight and tracks make it easy to track by drone to it's hiding spot.
Lighter vehicles with minimal or no armor leave a much lighter footprint and are easier to camouflage with netting.
Nowadays, direct fire fights with an enemies tanks isn't necessary, as you can destroy them 10 kilometers before they ever get in range with their main guns.
I imagine the use of MRAZR, Flyer 60, or the Infantry Squad Vehicle will increase. They can carry anything from drones, machine guns, grenade launchers, 30mm cannon, etc.
With the number of tanks lost in this war to precision strikes, I'd hate to be an armored crewman in this most modern war.
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@TheNinjaMarmot
Artillery doesn't have to stay in the same firing position. A modern SPAG can set up, fire 6 rounds, and pack up in less than 4 minutes. 6 laser guided 155mm shells weighing 90 pounds flying 25 miles to their targets. Vehicles painted by drones are hit on the first shot, whether they are moving or not. Once the tanks are spotted from the air, there's nowhere to run or hide.
Yes, I've seen videos of many tanks and vehicles hit with kamikaze drones. This will increase as more examples of loitering drones like the Hero 120, Lancet 3, Harop, or Phoenix Ghost makes it onto the battlefield.
They're especially good at stripping away air defense and artillery emplacements.
Tanks can try to hide if they want. A large tank is pretty difficult to keep hidden from air observation. A modern medium range, medium altitude UCAV will still see the thermal signature and ruts the tracks dug in the ground from thousands of feet up.
Drones that are very hard to see on radar, if you want to turn one on before it locks on an amram on the signal.
Even small quad copters dropping small bombs on the tanks are destroying them. They usually carry multiple bombs, so it's got several shots to make the kill. Usually it's through an open turret hatch (exploding the ammo), or on the engine deck setting the tank on fire. Dozens of these are probing the lines at any time. At less than 100K, they're expendable. If it only kills one tank, it's paid for itself.
That's not even discussing fire and forget, top attack, man portable ATGMs like the Javelin or SPIKE. The firer has the potential of engaging tanks outside the range of their main guns (greater than 2 miles). A small team in a covered and concealed position is a lot harder to detect than a multiton vehicle.
Some ATGM systems don't even have to be located near the firers position. They are fired remotely, so the crew can stay hidden.
Precision guided weapons might kill the idea of the large armored vehicle. Speed, stealth, and a smaller supply and maintenance tail might become more important than protection and firepower. The less ammo tonnage and fuel that needs to be delivered down to the company, the better. Less total men needed to be in the field, the fewer the number of support they have to have.
Active protection systems are very expensive but they will be mandatory going forward. They won't defend against quad copter attacks but it would give at least a fighting chance against missiles and possibly guided artillery.
Air defense will have to advance quickly. The drone threat is so massive that individual vehicles will have to have some sort of air defense capability. Whether that's a man portable stingers, radars with air burst autocannon, air defense drones, or lasers, if the drone threat isn't mitigated it's going to be difficult to survive in a tank.
All of this doesn't replace the man on the ground. It's just now these weapons will be what he's using to destroy fighting positions and vehicles whenever they see them while performing recon. Men moving more like sniper teams than a charging rhino. Destroying a bunker with a one shot 40 pound drone from 5 miles away is much safer than bringing up a tank within the line of sight of a potential ATGM team.
Flying that same drone up to find a hidden mortar team, an armored vehicle, helicopter, or building is just as easy.
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