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Aristocles Athenaioi
CRUX
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Comments by "Aristocles Athenaioi" (@aristoclesathenaioi4939) on "CRUX" channel.
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Would Russia agree to abide by the 1995 Budapest Memorandum in which Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following: 1) Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.[6] 2) Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory. 3) Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind. 4) Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used". 5) Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory. 6) Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments. Nobody can trust Russia to keep the promises they made or treaties they have signed. Russia never negotiates in good faith and relying on Russia to keep their word is foolish.
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After someone gets a job in a company, specifically Chaebol, require that they immediately do the four months in the Army before taking up the job at the company that accepted them for the job.
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That conflation of the launch system with the rockets it fires just drives me crazy. Often I am unclear what the reports mean. "Destroyed six HIMARS" must mean six launchers. Also the confusion or lack specificity about what munitions were used also drives me to distraction. I have wanted to learn if Ukraine has used the HIMARS munition that sprays 200 thousand steel pellet-sizes balls when it explodes as means of area denial. I especially want to know if it has been used in the Bakhmut area. With massed Russian troops there it would have devastating effects.
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Even though drones are subsonic perhaps having drones patrol over the Air Identification Zone could serve as a deterrent because they could fly into the path of the Chinese aircraft, and reduce the need or at least the speed with which Taiwanese pilots would have to scramble. Perhaps even static obstacles like weather balloons at different altitudes could create a maze that the Chinese must navigate. Anchored to barges that can move the balloons the maze could change at night. The Taiwanese pilots would know how to thread the maze, but the PRC pilots. Even if the balloons get blown away by winds, or shot by PRC pilots it still requires that PRC pilots to make an effort.
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I agree with your assessment about Finland's position because they need to be part of NATO if they are going to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. If they are a member of NATO then they can rely on other NATO countries coming to their defense if the Russian's attack, but without such an assurance they need to maintain their force strength and will likely need every bullet they have along with the tanks. I find it more puzzling why a country like Spain who was very agreeable to sending their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is now having cold feet. What really worries me is the pivotal role that the autocrat Erdogan in Turkiye is playing. I feel certain that Q'uran burning in Sweden was orchestrated by the FSB precisely because it plays into Erdogan's hand. The Russian oilgarchs have their yacht moored in resorts in Turkiye. Erdogan milked the grain crisis to skim profits from grain sold to Syria. All in all Turkiye has done very well for itself in this war, and has helped Russia a lot. Who knows what deal was cut for Erdogan to block specifically Sweden's entry to NATO. Keep in mind that the Greeks and Turks are at one another's throats once again about some islands in the Aegean, and NATO needs to keep that from blowing up into a war. NATO is indeed a defensive organization because it provides a framework for the European countries to police one another as well as defend against Russia. I think the best hope for Ukraine lies with Poland. I would not be bit surprised if we see a modern Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth reconstitute itself because Western Ukraine was part of that Commonwealth, and a tight political alliance between Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine might serve them better than NATO does. I recommend looking at the Wikipedia article about the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth because of how much it could apply today if reformed. That would really be Russia's nightmare more than NATO is.
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Why did you choose to omit that in January Russia stop sharing the information required by the New START Treaty? The US decision against providing further updates came after Russia refused to provide their data.
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@khaledhemmaty6081 I'm sure the Russian troops in the Kherson oblast are looking forward to spending a winter outside as well.
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I expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine will be coordinated with an attack on Taiwan by China to exploit the US attention on the South China Sea. Only in April and October do the currents in the Taiwan straits favor an invasion from the mainland, and Chinese invasion can occur right after the Olympics in Beijing finish in March. The Chinese could use some pretext to increase hostilities in the Taiwan Strait then forbid anyone attending the Olympic Games from leaving China because of the danger. China would essentially put the Olympic athletes and other foreigners attending the Olympics in "protective custody" to prevent them getting injured in a war. This could happen in March with the Chinese invasion of Taiwan occurring as soon as conditions in the Taiwan make that possible, and that could take place in March even before April. China would effectively have hostages that would deter any attack on the mainland. This timetable for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan works well for Putin who can drag out military maneuvers and saber-rattling until China launches an invasion in March/April then invade Ukraine at the same time that China invades Taiwan.
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@khaledhemmaty6081 sorry Khaled I can't make heads nor tails out of what you just said. Can you try rephrasing it? Sadly I only speak English.
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@pete531 Russia just moved intermediate range missiles less than 600 miles from Japan. US has long standing defense treaties with Japan, which in on the border with Russia. You mean Russia lacks the political maturity to share an unarmed border with another country? I think the US has already demonstrated it can do that by having a border from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean with Canada, and without armed troops on either side along that border. Surely Russia has the maturity to have similar borders with its neighbors.
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@adelbertantonio2937 I think they use the advanced rinse and spin cycle chips from the more modern washing machines looted from Ukrainian homes
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@volkerr. yes I agree. My comment was about terminology. That was also the issue in the comment I replied to. I have never trusted Russian statistics, and my skepticism goes back sixty years when I was a child during the Cold War. I know the US also published bogus statistics, but at least they were consistent even if inaccurate. The Russian statistics conflicted with other statistics. Plus the Russian numbers were so exaggerated. I remember reading a Russian newspaper in the 1970s that said the rate of increase in production had doubled. It took me a couple of minutes to figure out that the statement was about an increase in the second derivative of the measurement. That was the very last time I ever gave any thought to believing Russian statistics.
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This could be an act of Resistance forces within Russia
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Saying that the S-125 systems are repurposed for surface-to-surface use would provide good cover for using MGM-140 ATACMS in a HIMARS MLS. If the Russians claim that US has supplied Ukraine with the MGM-140 ATACMS and that Ukraine used them for longer range strikes, then Ukraine could say that they had used repurposed S-125 missiles.
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@Newdivide Yeah he was very careful and clever about how he used his radar.
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@skip181sg as a side comment, it was utterly disgraceful the way that the US withdrew support for the Kurds, and this was the second time it happened. The US did it after the Gulf War. Given how much pressure Turkiye has put on Sweden and Finland to declare the PKK as a terrorist organization shows that the Kurds remain in considerable jeopardy. I should also add that one person's terrorist is another person's partisan or freedom fighter. I hope the day comes when the PKK can become a political rather than a military organization just as the IRA became a political party. Of course, circumstances can reverse that course. I hope the UK will continue to support the Good Friday Accords, and that they both sides remain observant to the terms of those Accords. Saly, making such agreements with Russia are always doomed because the Russians never can keep their word. When Ukraine agreed in the Budapest Memorandum to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees of sovereignty and territorial integrity, they made the mistake of trusting Russia to honor the agreement and to keep their word. Perhaps it would have been better if Ukraine had kept their nuclear missiles rather than relying on Russia to keep its word.
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@lotharschiese8559 The fact that the truck came from the Russian side also helps explain how that much explosive could get on the bridge in a truck because the authorities screening traffic could have been told it was war materiel needed by the Russian military in Crimea.
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@YcarinChannel especially if the weapons would be identified as coming from the US. If the Ukrainian Army uses it's Russian made helicopters to attack targets in Russia then the neither the US nor other NATO members has any say over that and has nothing to do with it
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Sounds helicopters doing ASW
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Maybe the Russians could refurbish the Warsaw Pact as the Minsk Pact, and then see how many countries of their own fee will. If Russia insists on having a buffer state between Russia abd NATO then perhaps Russian could cede some land to Belarus down to the Crimea Peninsula. Ukraine could join NATO, and Russia would have the "greater-Belarus" as a buffer state they control between Russia and NATO. "Greater Belarus" would still act as a buffer even after Russia returns the Crimea and other parts of Ukraine that Russia has illegally annexed.
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@josefinamondragon5267 I just hope that the strategists in the Departments of State and the Department of Defense are thinking outside the box for possibilities like that. They should be prepared for extreme even if unlikely scenarios like this.
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@billy6pack887 Bakhmut is essential to Putin. Without Bakhmut then he can not get the Donestk Oblast under Russian occupation. If Putin can secure at least the Donbas then he can represent that as a win. However, there is a serious tactical fly in the ointment. ... The Salt Mines in Soledar. The Azovstal Foundry looks like a teenage clubhouse compared to the Salt Mines in Soledar. If the Ukrainian Army decides to make that a stronghold, and they may be doing that right now, then it truly will take more than a fission bomb to get at them in there. It will take a thermonuclear weapon. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soledar_Salt_Mine Notice the part about the proton decay physics experiment in those salt mines. Also the US uses salt mines to store nuclear waste. The Russians will look really foolish if they have get Ukrainian troops out of the Soledar Salt Mines in order to claim that Russia has control over the Donetsk Oblast. You can be sure the Ukrainians will let everyone know they are still in Donetsk even if only because they are in a stronghold in the Soledar Salt Mines.
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@billy6pack887 obviously you did not read the Wikipedia article. I feel certain the Russians are better informed than your comment would suggest. Flood with water? rotflmao
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@billy6pack887 look at those numbers mate and calculate how much water would be needed to dissolve the salt to make a saline solution. Moreover if you think that simply pouring water into a salt mine will work then how do salt mines deal with underground aquifers the way coal mines do? Or maybe salt mines, which are often salt domes that have oil bearing rock below them don't have the problem. Hmmm?
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@billy6pack887 by the way. Why didn't the Russians flood the Azovstal foundry? Marioupol is a port on the Black Sea. Loads of water in the Sea. Why not flood the foundry?
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@billy6pack887 I beg your pardon, but I had difficulty understanding what you wrote. I don't mean I disagree or agree, I simply don't understand what you mean based on what you typed.
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Comparing Grad missiles with HIMARS missiles is like comparing a shotgun with a rifle.
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Or delivery dates.
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I can't see why the Ukrainians need cluster munitions when there are HIMARS missiles that expel 200 thousand tungsten steel pellets when the missile detonates. The US Military designed that type of missile warhead for the express purpose of avoiding the use of cluster munitions as a means of area denial. Perhaps the Ukrainians are asking for more of those types of HIMARS missiles. If they are then it is bad public relations to say you want cluster munitions. Of course one can never underestimate the inability of journalists to describe a situation correctly. For example the continuing conflation of the types of missiles used by a HIMARS launch system and the launch system itself.
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Russian hypocrisy is breathtaking. Russia claims that the West is trying to "wipe out Russia's economic and military potential". Russia knows what that means because it is exactly what Russia is trying to do Ukraine.
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Your reference to Bragg in particular is exaggerated. Bragg discovered that the nature of gun sounds was not well understood and that care needed to be taken to separate the sonic boom of the shell from the actual sound of the firing. This problem was solved in mid-1916 when one of Bragg's detachment, Lance Corporal William Sansome Tucker, formerly of the Physics Department, London University, invented the low-frequency microphone. This separated the low frequency sound made by the firing of the gun from the sonic boom of the shell. It used a heated platinum wire that was cooled by the sound wave of a gun firing. I expect that the Russian application owes more to Russian techniques used in the passive sonar systems they use on their submarines rather than the specific solution that Tucker invented under Bagg's direction. I wonder how much someone might learn from that mobile phone software about the signal processing algorithms that Russia uses in their underwater passive sonar systems.
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Yeah, that military genius Donald Trump.
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