Comments by "Aristocles Athenaioi" (@aristoclesathenaioi4939) on "Lei's Real Talk" channel.

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  5. The view that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is bogged down is seriously mistaken. Here is a link to a video that explains precisely what is happening with Russian invasion, and I will follow the video link with the comments about it made by a friend of mine who is a retired Professor of German History. Russo-Ukraine War: What the West Doesn't Understand EP 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5BAZ2bBUzM Cappy is especially interesting. He quite correctly describes old Red Army techniques that are now being used, beginning with the young, untrained conscripts as cannon fodder. Interestingly, the four (!!) battles for Kharkiv (Kharkov) in WWII, at least two of which pitted Manstein against Konev, are good examples. So too was the Soviet move across Poland and into Germany in 1944-45, culminating with the truly devastating assault on the Seelow Heights east of Berlin. I have been to the Seelow Heights many times. The landscape there is full of hundreds of small Soviet war cemeteries with 50 or 100 bodies in them. Interestingly, current Russian war plans have an even longer ancestry. In the early summer of 1848, Habsburg forces withdrew from Prague, surrounded the city, and bombarded it into submission. This became the standard technique for controlling big cities. They did the same thing to Vienna later that fall (with the Croats acting like the Chechens now). In 1870 the Prussians surrounded and besieged Paris, otherwise controlling all of France north of the Loire. After the provisional government (the "Versaillais") capitulated to the Germans, the Versaillais themselves besieged a Paris that was governed by the Commune, until finally, in May 1871, the Versaillais breached the Communards' defenses and in incredibly brutal street fighting retook Paris block by block, taking advantage of the broad boulevards that Napoleon III had built specifically to thwart urban uprisings. Just as Ike built the interstate highways as defense corridors, the wide boulevards that people love in Paris were built for military reasons.
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  34. I believe that the US would hesitate to attack Naval vessels who were enforcing a blockade. However, I think that the PLA trying to impose a no-fly would be much harder because the US would without hesitation attempt to land airplanes on Taiwan even if only in the name of humanitarian aid. If the PLA choose to attack a US plane delivering humanitarian aid then that would be the PLA striking the first blow which could serve as a casus belli that the US would use to justify a retaliation on the PLA. I expect the retaliation would be an aerial retaliation, and that the US would avoid a direct naval engagement until the PLA directly attacked a US warship. After an aerial attack the US might then send ships to Taiwan for humanitarian aid, and if those ships were attacked then the US would engage with warships. I doubt if the US would attack the Chinese mainland because that could trigger a nuclear response from China. However, the US would likely invade the islands in the South Chinese Sea especially those near the Philippines because those islands are considered in violation of the International Law of the Sea as well as the Philippines having a justifiable claim to those islands. It would be interesting to see if Vietnam also invaded the islands that they claim are theirs. There is a long standing distrust between Vietnam and China that goes back hundreds of years. The Vietnamese have long been known as an aggressive power in the Southeast Asia. I do believe that the US and China would avoid striking the territory of either country including a direct attack by China on Guam because that kind of attack could provoke a interchange of strategic weapons. If Japan chooses to land troops on disputed islands between Japan and China, and China attacks an acknowledged part of Japan such as Okinawa then that opens the floodgates because the US has very cleat treaty obligations with Japan. In short, a no-fly zone over Taiwan would lead to serious escalations on both sides.
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