Comments by "Aristocles Athenaioi" (@aristoclesathenaioi4939) on "A Xi Jinping loyalist reveals why the CCP wants to attack Taiwan" video.

If the CCP wants to take TSMC then they need to do VERY quick strike because it is very easy to destroy a semiconductor fabrication facility. You only need to open the clean rooms and you will have a herculean task of cleaning them out again. Also, the real valuable asset in a semiconductor facility are the human assets. I would be willing to bet that Taiwan with the US has a plan to evacuate all the people critical technical know-how. I am sure that a lot of people working at TSMC would willingly work for the CPP, but it will take years to restart the fab facilities, and during that time TSMC could restart in the new facilities they are building in the US. Also, the ASML systems at TSMC would likely be sabotaged if a take-over of the TSMC looked likely. Although ASML is a Dutch company, it relies on US intellectual property and patents. The US already has an embargo on selling the latest ASML technology to China. Any semiconductor company cut-off from ASML will have an impossible time getting the smallest and highest density chips fabricated. The world-wide manufacturing disruption caused by a disruption in the chips from TSMC would be cause alone for a serious backlash at China. Having said all this, I doubt it would deter China from attempting an invasion of Taiwan because such an attack would be motivated by political issues divorced from the issues of restarting TSMC operations. I seriously doubt that Chinese strategist shown in this video has even the slightest technical knowledge to understand how economicaly disastrous the consequences of disrupting TSMC operations would be or what an immense challenge it would be to restore those operations.
11
When the only sons start coming back in body-bags the social backlash will be stupendous. The CCP might try to keep it a secret for as long as possible, but even if the invasion were successful there would be a lot of parents wondering where their son is and how they will manage their old age without a son to help as is traditional. The Chinese social services are bad now and could never pick up the slack. Even if they did, the cultural expectations of a son are enormous and the loss would be incalculable for many families.
7
@johndoe-vc1we Given the flare-up about Quemoy and Matsu has historical precedent and could make a favorable target for propaganda purposes. Eventhough Quemoy and Matsu are legally part of Taiwan, current population voted for the Kuomintang and seems to favor unification with China. Quemoy and Matsu would provide an ideal stand-off with the US and China. They are definitely part of Taiwan. Taiwan would have to respond militarily, but the US would likely hold back because military help to Taiwan would like inflame tensions. An attack on Taiwan would present real diplomatic challenges for China, and for that reason China might hold back out of concern for looking like an aggressor despite their consistent claim that Taiwan is a part of China. What kind of incident or maybe false flag operation might China cause to give them an excuse for invading Quemoy and Matsu? Some fishing boat incident? A collision between a Chinese Coast Guard ship?
2
@johndoe-vc1we No I NEVER wanted the KMT to win elections. My point was that the KMT was popular in Quemoy and Matsu and therefore the CCP might be welcomed and they sure could falsrly report harassment of the KMT supports to justify an invasion of those islands. That would present quite a dilemma for the US given that Quemoy and Matsu are properly part of Taiwan and yet not worth going to a full scale war over. The Russian invasion of the Donbass was ostensibly to protect harassed Russian speakers and that is a page out of Hitler's playbook for invading and annexing the Sudatenland to protect oppressed German speakers.
2
Russia has long indulged in this mentality of victimization, and for the Russians especially at the hands of the Anglo-Saxons as Putin often says. China suffers from the same sense of being a victim at the hands of the West, and they have history to back it up. However, such a mentality of victimization never goes well for a country who indulges in it.
1