Comments by "Aristocles Athenaioi" (@aristoclesathenaioi4939) on "Recent Taiwan drills revealed Chinese military strategy, weaknesses, u0026 embarrassing behaviors" video.

  1. I believe that the US would hesitate to attack Naval vessels who were enforcing a blockade. However, I think that the PLA trying to impose a no-fly would be much harder because the US would without hesitation attempt to land airplanes on Taiwan even if only in the name of humanitarian aid. If the PLA choose to attack a US plane delivering humanitarian aid then that would be the PLA striking the first blow which could serve as a casus belli that the US would use to justify a retaliation on the PLA. I expect the retaliation would be an aerial retaliation, and that the US would avoid a direct naval engagement until the PLA directly attacked a US warship. After an aerial attack the US might then send ships to Taiwan for humanitarian aid, and if those ships were attacked then the US would engage with warships. I doubt if the US would attack the Chinese mainland because that could trigger a nuclear response from China. However, the US would likely invade the islands in the South Chinese Sea especially those near the Philippines because those islands are considered in violation of the International Law of the Sea as well as the Philippines having a justifiable claim to those islands. It would be interesting to see if Vietnam also invaded the islands that they claim are theirs. There is a long standing distrust between Vietnam and China that goes back hundreds of years. The Vietnamese have long been known as an aggressive power in the Southeast Asia. I do believe that the US and China would avoid striking the territory of either country including a direct attack by China on Guam because that kind of attack could provoke a interchange of strategic weapons. If Japan chooses to land troops on disputed islands between Japan and China, and China attacks an acknowledged part of Japan such as Okinawa then that opens the floodgates because the US has very cleat treaty obligations with Japan. In short, a no-fly zone over Taiwan would lead to serious escalations on both sides.
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