Comments by "anotheranon" (@anotheranon3118) on "German Chancellor Olaf Scholz loses his cool as energy debate gets heated" video.

@DIOS-M Russia does not have an infrastructure to export gas in large volumes to other countries. Russia's oil also becomes more expensive (and less competitive in the global market) as it needs to travel further distances.
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@safiibrahim1778 I don't think that they are, to be honest. When we talk about gas, we need to check the connections that link Russia to the East. There's only one pipeline which can't deliver large volumes as of now. There is another one being built, but that will take years to finish. Western technology is required to finalize that pipeline, which can't be imported as of now, so the project may take longer to finalize. Also, China won't be as stupid as the Europeans to almost exclusively rely on Russia for their gas, so Putin and co. do have a problem on that front at least in the short to medium term. Re. oil, Russia's oil is not the cheapest around to produce. Saudi's, Iran's and Iraq's oil is much cheaper. Indonesia's, Norway's and US' oil are more or less the same price. Russia's oil is also easier to replace in the global market than gas is, because there are more sellers. And now that it needs to be shipped further away (5 days are likely to become 30+ for the average Russian tanker to reach its destination), it becomes less competitive. So that's something to consider. OPEC is currently pumping more oil into the global supply and, along with other reasons, crude oil prices have decreased quite a bit since they went bananas in March. So, no, I don't think so. It may look like they do, but when you start scratching the surface, the reality is more complicated.
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@DIOS-M You need to dig deeper. What's the volume of Power of Siberia I vs. the already existing pipelines that end in Europe? (Insignificant). When will Power of Siberia II be completed? (At least 2030). Are crude oil prices still rising? (No, they have been decreasing since the spike in March 2022. OPEC is pumping more oil into the global supply). Is Russia's oil super competitive? (Not necessarily, it is not the cheapest to produce, now it will be sanctioned in many places, and shipping costs will increase as tankers have to travel muuuuuch longer distances to reach new markets). What about China? (Trade with China may increase, but that does not mean that this will be an equal partnership. China knows that Russia is not a seller that can be trusted and will therefore diversify its inputs. There are also many anxieties in Moscow regarding China's influence and demographics in the Far East). Are there negative effects to destroying your commercial relationship with, by far, your largest costumer, who also happens to be your next door neighbor, and who you can easily reach because of the existing infrastructure? (Obvious answer).
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@safiibrahim1778 It's very hard to talk about medium to long term scenarios. The West's global power in relative terms will decline, but it's just very hard to make proper predictions about all the rest. China has a terminal demography, which will really bite them. They only have a short window of time to escape the middle income trap before their society gets too old, which will have very clear implications for growth, among others. Japan, for instance, got 'rich' before it got old, and even so, their demographic profile is really hurting them. We will see whether China manages that transition adequately, which may not be the case. We are also in the midst of an energy transition. China has a bit of an upper hand in this when it comes to the supply of rare earth minerals, but hydrocarbon exporters such as Russia may be losing big in the medium term. Saudi Arabia, for instance, knows this, that's why they are diversifying its economy at the moment - to be prepared. New markets for the minerals that you quote above can be explored. Investment needs to follow suit. China has the monopoly on many because they invested in extraction domestically and tried to control some of the african supply chains. That does not mean it is a fixed matter - things can change in that respect. Russia's self sufficiency does not mean they will be necessarily doing Ok - problematic demographic profile too, brain drain, they will find it hard to move up the value chain ladder in many sectors, a very big country yes but also difficult to manage in terms of infrastructure /logistics, new pariah status with not blocked but severely curtailed access to investment and funding, and many others. TLDR: it's hard to look very far into the future, especially when we talk about so many things at once. But I do appreciate you keeping it civil and I do appreciate the reasonable reply.
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@Mne Ne Vse Ravno You are just too ideologically driven pal, with all due respect to you - re-read your statement again. Those responsible for the pipeline construction announced that the goal is for it to be online by 2030 (which means that delays can happen). Use Google translate if you don't speak Russian. It is all over the internet in Russian language, again, pointing to 2030. This takes literally 30 seconds of Googling, and it is a much nicer thing to do than strawmanning 'Western experts.' 8 years is a long time if the ties with your main costumer, where you get most of the real profits from, and where you export most of your gas to, are severed or severely damaged. It's even worse when you don't have the infrastructure to supply others and make up for the loss in revenue. Russia is not giving away all that gas to Europe for free.
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@Mne Ne Vse Ravno To Nordstream 1 yes, but Nordstream 1 is the one of the several pipelines that end up un Europe. Power of Siberia II is being built, but its completion will take at least 8 more years.
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@lilacer6841 Leave the ad hominems for someone else - what's your point?
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@lilbahadurchetri4361 These countries are not fighting Russia, they are sending weapons to Ukraine in limited numbers so Ukraine can remain a country. It is very different.
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@lilbahadurchetri4361 Supporting Ukraine =/= fighting Russia. We have not even given them very large range HIMARS, jets, etc. The Ukrainians are not even hitting targets deep into Russia.
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@lilbahadurchetri4361 I can tell that you are not a resident in any of those 35 countries, lol. Inflation is a reality, but your doom and gloom characterization is beyond ridiculous. Unemployment levels are very, very low, the people in these nations overwhelmingly support Ukraine, our economies are still growing and whatever homelessness issues we were facing (different in each country) are nothing new. Come visit us and see for yourself. Or check actual indicators, for that matter.
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@lilbahadurchetri4361 'The truth' - you talk just like the Jehowa Witnesses. Your arguments are incoherent and all over the place, pal. Sorry to say.
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