Comments by "Dale Crocker" (@dalecrocker3213) on "" video.

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  26.  @lazytitan9987  You are misinformed on a number of counts. Covid is a disease which only produces dire effects when it affects the respiratory system. It will never become eradicated via a process of vaccination. Children will only be able to pass it on in rare circumstances - if at all. Comparisons with such diseases as measles are meaningless. Current studies show that long-term affects are also governed by age. They occur hardly at all in teenagers, affect around 1.2% of patients in their 20s and up to 4.8% of those in middle age. The percentages you cite have no foundation other than possibly being an average found in patients in ICU's, many of whom have been elderly and very elderly. As with death and severe illness, so-called long covid is age related with young people suffering from it only rarely. Your paragraph 3 is nonsensical. There is no evidence that young adults and school children have been major factors in infection surges and in any case pre-pubescent children would be excluded from the equation. I simply don't understand the last sentence. The vast majority of the current wave of cases have occurred among unvaccinated and therefore probably younger people and their symptoms are consequently generally not life-threatening. People who have been vaccinated and have still caught the disease are themselves generally experiencing only mild symptoms with relatively low viral loads and are therefore unlikely to infect others to any great degree. New variants- or their coming into pre-eminence - have nothing to do with the number of new cases. They already exist but only take hold when circumstances are altered to allow whatever tiny differences they possess to find an advantage. This is called evolution and has been known about for some time.
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  35.  @lazytitan9987  I'm afraid the CDC has lost all credibility as far as I am concerned. Much like SAGE it is a political organisation which changes its views according to mysterious diktat. And as for The Conversation....well Of course any virus which exists has gone through a process of reproduction, otherwise it wouldn't exist, would it? The point is a variant with increased transmissibility comes to no purpose unless a situation exists whereby some advantage will derive from the minor alteration in its RNA which increases its transmissibility. Take the likely life history of the Delta variant for example. In India only wealthy people living in detached suburban homes have any hope of enduring or sustaining lockdown. They evade the earlier less efficient less transmissible variant but along comes Delta, perhaps some of just a few million floating about, and it's quick enough off the mark to start up a series of infections within this restricted environment. It spreads and is inevitably transferred to the general population, some of whom visit their relatives in the UK and then some of their neighbours travel Europe on business or holiday. Viruses don't spontaneously generate and although it is possible that some wealthy Indian caught earlier covid and it mutated within him it is just as likely that Delta variants existed in the vast invisible clouds of aerosols and virions which surround us. In either case it's only going to spread initially in an environment from which its rivals are excluded, isn't it? Being able to jump six feet is of no advantage when the fence is only five feet high. Delta didn't ought to be more virulent than its predecessor (although it might be) it just has to be more readily transmissible. In fact in time covid variants ought to become less deadly since if the hosts die they can't can't spread that variant. Indeed, in time covid 19 ought to become just one of the components of that little platoon of irritating pathogens we call the common cold.
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  40.  @lazytitan9987  There is no consensus, simply a wide selection of views some influenced by political considerations and others not. Yes, I naturally greet with considerable relief the fact that highly qualified specialists support my instinctive assessments. These include tenured professors and WHO advisors with lengthy and distinguished careers in epidemiology and public healthcare and I am reassured to note that they do not depend on political placement for their livelihoods. Your 10% illustration is utterly ridiculous. A virus may be 10% more transmissible than its competitors but if it exists in very very small numbers it will stand no chance of beating the competition. Its extra transmissibility is irrelevant because extra transmissibility is not needed. Only when competition is affected by the introduction of restrictions in the available number of hosts will its improved transmissibility prove its worth - and it will then vastly increase in number and reach a point where, because of that increased number, its 10% advantage will lead to it replacing the competition. Which is what has happened. Evolution occurs as a result of a change in balance between environment and individual characteristics. Nature changes the individual characteristics but in the present instance it is we who alter the environment to allow the characteristics to bring advantage to their possessor. Isolation? Finches isolated on an island where the nutshells are hard end up with stronger beaks. Viruses isolated in the suburbs of Delhi where hosts are hard to find end up with more efficient protein spikes.
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  41.  @lazytitan9987  I strongly deny that I have ever ascribed intention to evolutionary change! Quite the contrary I have made it clear that the success of a new variant depends upon a relationship between environment and acquired characteristics. New variants occur in an arbitrary way and there are very many of them, the vast majority of which bring no benefit. Finch beaks develop in response to the environment as as do viruses. The only difference is that viral evolution is several million times quicker and in this instance man has altered the environment. Less infections may mean less mutations but we have long ago passed the point where this matters. The number of viruses that have been created is so vast that the Delta variant must have emerged several time over. The tiny differences it possesses do not enable it to beat the competition as long as the competition outnumbers it so greatly and is itself allowed to continue its natural function. I think it is you who are ascribing motive to this arbitrary process. The Delta variant has not become dominant because it is smarter and more determined than other viruses, but because environments have been created which give it the opportunity to do so. ( I was particularly intrigued by your assertion that "similarly the seeds which are too hard for the existing beak strength of the finch population don’t get eaten and are able to reproduce more." How does that work out? Was it a mistake in your English or do you actually not realise that seeds of the type eaten by birds actually NEED to be eaten in order for the plant to reproduce?)
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  44.  @lazytitan9987  I'm fairly tired of explaining things to you. The difference between us I think is that I understand your explanations but disagree with them. You can't seem quite to grasp mine. I will speak unto you in parables: In the vast plains of Africa there are vast herds of impala. They are preyed upon by both lions and cheetahs. Both catch and eat the impalas and so survive and breed. One day the god of the impalas removes nine tenths of the impalas and the rest exist in small groups scattered around the vast plain. All at once the cheetahs are at an advantage as their speed allows them to run down the remaining impalas while the poor lions stagger around in the undergrowth, puffing and panting. It is an inadequate analogy, as all analogies must be, but you of course must realise that the "unexplained" reduction in host numbers in this case is the action of the god of the impalas. The "unexplained" reduction in host numbers in our present instance is the imposition of lockdown restrictions. According to your way of thinking as soon as cheetahs appeared on the scene their extra efficiency would have allowed them to outcompete the lions into extinction. Not so. Plenty to go around. I repeat: A small advantage is no advantage at all unless circumstances allow it to be so. Being more transmissible is only an advantage when the number of hosts capable of being transmitted to is reduced to a level whereby viruses with less transmissible qualities cannot readily find hosts. As is the objective of lockdowns.
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  45.  @lazytitan9987  You are extending my parable beyond its parameters. The principle is all that needs to be understood. Zoological quibbles are to no purpose. Delta began in India where you say there are no effective lockdowns. This is not entirely true. Lockdowns were imposed from the outset but were of course somewhat impractical in such an overcrowded country. Most Indian cities and towns are, however, surrounded by wealthy suburban areas which lend themselves ideally to lockdown and isolation. Large villas, widely separated and surrounded by high fences and walls, give wealthy families the opportunity to divorce themselves almost entirely from the world outside. It is my contention that in environments such as this that the Delta variant emerged as dominant. A peculiarity of SARS-Cov 2 is that unlike previous covids it appears to be capable of swift mutation in the manner of influenza viruses. Scientific opinion on why this should be is sharply divided. One answer to the question might well be that through our interventions we have created circumstances encouraging and vastly speeding up the mechanics of evolution. This has happened in individual cases where patients subjected to a variety of experimental treatments have produced a new variant in response. The virus' immense rate of reproduction allows it to come up with a solution simply by throwing billions of answers at the problem until one fits. Back to Bihar Crescent, New Delhi where Mr Gupta and his family are heeding government advice and self-isolating. Their fridges are full but they still have deliveries which are left at the gate for collection. The amount of virions and aerosols in the compound and in the house is much reduced, but it is still there and among the billions which arrive there are a few million delta variants (as well as a few million other variants which need not concern us here). So which variant is most likely to infect Mt Gupta's family? Obviously the one most fitted to do so - the more transmissible Delta. Back in the city slums B.1234 or whatever its name is still infecting by the thousand and the Deltas do no better or worse since their depredations are concealed among the infections which B 1234 can still readily achieve as there are plenty of hosts to infect who then infect one other very rapidly due to close proximity. The rest is history, as they say. Mr Gupta's servants come to town along with the servants of all his neighbours and all infected with the Delta variant. At last Delta is available in sufficient numbers to get among the slum dwellers and utilise its increased transmissibility to infect enough of them before B 1234 corners the market. There's a new kid on the block and all he needed was a start in life.
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