Comments by "Dale Crocker" (@dalecrocker3213) on "Student's Karen-Like Rant Is A GRIM Reminder" video.
-
3
-
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
@becauseiam7915
Mask mandate and use efficacy for COVID-19 containment in US States
Damian D. Guerra1,*, Daniel J. Guerra2
1Department of Biology, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, United States of America;
2Authentic Biochemistry, VerEvMed, Clarkston, Washington, United States of America
Background: COVID-19 pandemic mitigation requires evidence-based strategies. Because COVID-19 can spread via respired droplets, most US states mandated mask use in public settings. Randomized control trials have not clearly demonstrated mask efficacy against respiratory viruses, and observational studies conflict on whether mask use predicts lower infection rates. We hypothesized that statewide mask mandates and mask use were associated with lower COVID-19 case growth rates in the United States.
Methods: We calculated total COVID-19 case growth and mask use for the continental United States with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. We estimated post-mask mandate case growth in non-mandate states using median issuance dates of neighboring states with mandates.
Results: Earlier mask mandates were not associated with lower total cases or lower maximum growth rates. Earlier mandates were weakly associated with lower minimum COVID-19 growth rates. Mask use predicted lower minimum but not lower maximum growth rates. Growth rates and total growth were comparable between US states in the first and last mask use quintiles during the Fall-Winter wave. These observations persisted for both natural logarithmic and fold growth models and when adjusting for differences in US state population density.
Conclusions: We did not observe association between mask mandates or use and reduced COVID-19 spread in US states. COVID-19 mitigation requires further research and use of existing efficacious strategies, most notably vaccination.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, face covering, medical mask, mask mandate, nonpharmaceutical intervention
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@therealitycheck287
Mask mandate and use efficacy for COVID-19 containment in US States
Damian D. Guerra1,*, Daniel J. Guerra2
1Department of Biology, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, United States of America;
2Authentic Biochemistry, VerEvMed, Clarkston, Washington, United States of America
Background: COVID-19 pandemic mitigation requires evidence-based strategies. Because COVID-19 can spread via respired droplets, most US states mandated mask use in public settings. Randomized control trials have not clearly demonstrated mask efficacy against respiratory viruses, and observational studies conflict on whether mask use predicts lower infection rates. We hypothesized that statewide mask mandates and mask use were associated with lower COVID-19 case growth rates in the United States.
Methods: We calculated total COVID-19 case growth and mask use for the continental United States with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. We estimated post-mask mandate case growth in non-mandate states using median issuance dates of neighboring states with mandates.
Results: Earlier mask mandates were not associated with lower total cases or lower maximum growth rates. Earlier mandates were weakly associated with lower minimum COVID-19 growth rates. Mask use predicted lower minimum but not lower maximum growth rates. Growth rates and total growth were comparable between US states in the first and last mask use quintiles during the Fall-Winter wave. These observations persisted for both natural logarithmic and fold growth models and when adjusting for differences in US state population density.
Conclusions: We did not observe association between mask mandates or use and reduced COVID-19 spread in US states. COVID-19 mitigation requires further research and use of existing efficacious strategies, most notably vaccination.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, face covering, medical mask, mask mandate, nonpharmaceutical intervention
1
-
1
-
1
-
@therealitycheck287 Studies which "prove" masks work at limiting spread are many. But then you can prove the moon is made of green cheese if you know enough scientists looking for a job to do.
The same applies to proving that masks are ineffective of course, and although the there are sound political and financial reasons for "proving" that they do work, there are none, really, for proving that they don't.
So really all you can do is look at the real world and see states and countries where mask mandates have been introduced, and when, and try to find some correlation between such events and a subsequent reduction in covid case numbers.
And you can't. It can't be done in any way which proves a statistically significant correlation.
Getting you to stick a bit of cloth over your face is just the government's way of making you feel you are doing something to help. It also has a couple of subsidiary functions: immense financial profitability and, not least of all, it gives people the opportunity to divert their fear and anger away from the disease and the way it is being mis-handled on to those of us who, very sensibly, refuse to be fooled by this simple conjuring trick.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@sally8708 Yes, it is an interesting and thought-provoking paper. I do rather resent your accusation that I haven't read it though!
Obviously it represents only a small window onto the situation and while I have not indeed accessed current updates, it must be obvious that percentages will change quite rapidly. I find it useful mainly because it undermines many preconceptions about cause and effect in dealing with the pandemic. The old adage about the road to hell being paved with good intentions has never been more obvious than in the present instance.
For the record, I am extremely dubious about the effects of masks, handwashing and social distancing. I have always had my suspicions, but since May, when it became clear that the vast majority of infections are through aerosol transmission, my reservations are even more pronounced. Over-reliance on these procedures may have done more harm than good.
I think it probable there is some optimum level of vaccination which will lead to herd immunity. What thus is, goodness knows, and it will differ according to the demographics of individual communities. One thing we can be pretty certain of is that it will not be a 100% vaccination rate. With the vaccines performing as they are this will only lead to a permanent condition of epidemic with people getting booster shots every couple of months or so.
Great news for the pharma companies and their shareholders, but perhaps not as welcome to the rest of us.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@jcspoon573 Hang on! I know what it is and obviously recognise its limitations, but it provides interesting food for thought, don't you think? And your analogy doesn't really bear much close examination, does it?
The fact is that countries and states which go for mandated 100% vaccination programmes will inevitably find themselves in situations whereby their localised epidemics will continue virtually forever. The relatively low success rate of the current vaccines and their short shelf life guarantee this.
On the other hand, populations in which there is a level of vaccination, but which also experience increasing long-term immunity in individuals via infection, will approach herd immunity threshold in a relatively ordered manner.
This is already being demonstrated - not only through this study but in real world terms.
All you have to do is compare current infection rates in low vaxxed states with those in high vaxxed states to see this.
States such as Texas and Florida, with low levels of vaccination and a resistance to mandates, experienced hard hits in the summer, but their infection rates are now dropping dramatically.
High vaxxed, high mandated states such as Vermont, while suffering fewer casualties in the past, continue to see a steady rise in cases or at least a very much slower rate of decline.
1
-
1
-
1
-
@jcspoon573 As to your first point, resistance via infection leads to more or less total resistance to the first strain encountered and robust resistance to subsequent strains, leading to only mild symptoms. It is clear that this should be so, and what data we have indicates that this is, in fact, so.
Opportunities for mutation exist in all situations. The number of coronaviruses which have existed, and currently exist, is so vast that mutation becomes an utterly unpredictable event. Only by drastically reducing the number of potentially infectious people via immunity through infection can the likelihood or a new variant becoming predominant be reduced.
As to your last point, it can be said with some certainty that successful new strains which may occur will be those which are more transmissible, but less virulent, than preceding strains.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1