Comments by "afcgeo" (@afcgeo882) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

@jamiemacdonald208 The scary thing is that this is creating a rubber band effect on the economy. If Russia was to end the war, hundreds of thousands of men would return back home to no jobs and no income and Russia’s production will be very difficult to pivot away from the military sector as it will need to replenish so much of its inventory. Their GDP will collapse and unemployment explode.
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@markopodganjek845 If you print money you just increase inflation. You get that, right?
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@goenzoy712 The price of what? By the way, the primary factor in economics is GDP, not prices.
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@ Very few convicts were involved here, relatively. The bigger issue is that most of the hundreds of thousands of men fighting are from economically poor areas of the country, areas with no job prospects to start with. They will burn through their earned money within a few months and will then likely turn to alcohol and drugs because of a lack of work and PTSD.
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@ More frighteningly it was similar in post WW1 Germany.
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@ Labor productivity doing what exactly? Its exports have fallen off a cliff, while domestic consumption has been steadily declining due to inflation.
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@ The price of goods is only used as an indicator of inflation, not economy. Lots of places have high prices and a fantastic economy. For example: Switzerland and Norway. At the same time, most undeveloped nations have low prices and poor economies. Again, the GDP and its growth are the primary measures of a nation’s economy. Russia’s GDP growth for 2024 was estimated to be 3.9%, but is now forecasted to be at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the consumer price increase was 7.9%. These are the official numbers. The inflation is outpacing the GDP at over 100% and growing. That is the economic crash being referred to. It’s also why Russia can’t end the war. Most of its GDP currently is war production. If the war is stopped, the GDP will crash over the next two years.
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@ The sanctions don’t help with investments either.
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@ Except that’s not true. Inflation went up to 8.9% in November from 8.5% in October. The initial dip you saw in September was a fluke, apparently.
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@terjeoseberg990 Venezuela yes. North Korea no.
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@ Don’t overestimate. She’s still a high-ranked official in the administration. She’s doing what she needs to do for herself and her job. She’s not countering Putin. She’ll be fired one day, but that’ll be all.
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@robbrown4621 The video wasn’t about river crossings, although he might do one if you ask. Nothing he’s said indicates he doesn’t understand the subject. In fact, few armies understand it better than the Danes. Have you seen Denmark’s topography?
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@georgine321 Just FYI: there are no nuclear missiles based in Finland at all
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@ You’re talking about specifically about the inflation and deflation of the money supply. The terms “inflation” and “deflation” do not always refer to the money supply. In fact, most of the time “inflation” doesn’t relate to the money supply at all as in most countries money is tied to a commodity. In FACT, the definition of inflation is: “the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time.” That is per the IMF, by the way. Inflation can be caused by money supply changes. It can also be caused by product supply/demand changes and by cost of production changes. This is very basic Keynsian stuff.
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@markopodganjek845 China has ZERO control over Russia. It’s barely containing its own losses at the moment.
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@simras1234 Europe was doing the exact same thing. Germany, France, etc. all faltered on weapons support for Ukraine.
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@AkenValle Why aren’t you at the front?
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@ That’s not nitpicking a and it’s about 1/3 of Europe. For some reason you and other ignorant people keep thinking that all of Eastern Europe was a part of the USSR. It wasn’t. Albania, Poland, GDR, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Romania were Warsaw Pact nations, not a part of the USSR.
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@simras1234 I would argue all of the world is under Russian influence to one degree or another, which is Putin’s goal. Look, you argued that unlike Europe, the US hesitated on providing aid and my counter-argument was that Europe too has had issues with it, and I gave examples of Germany and France. If you’d like, I can be more specific. I just ask that you stick to the topic.
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@Splarkszter The EU is never going to be united on everything. Countries are like people.
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@enessou The end goal is to support Ukraine in its fight, that’s all. We aren’t belligerents in this conflict. Ukraine may win or lose.
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A great analysis, Anders. It looks like Ukrainians are managing to ferry units into the peninsula West of Kherson, in the Dnipro delta. Most likely they will push across the Dnipro from South and North of Kherson to send the bulk of Russians into a defense of Crimea. That will allow them to attack South, toward Melitopol, as Russia is unlikely to abandon Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine’s aim is to re-take Crimea and destroy the Kerch Bridge, thereby cutting off all Russian supplies to the South. That way they can start moving to Berdyansk, Mariupol, and then North. Even if Russia manages to push West into Donetsk, that force will be pinzered from the South and North. A push across the Dnipro is clear because the topography of the left bank is very unfortunate. It’s MUCH lower than the right bank (Kherson) and has little tall vegetation. It’s mostly a sand pit with little maneuvering areas or cover. It’s not a defensible place for Russia. Besides, those supply lines are still poor.
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@ What makes you believe those things?
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@robbrown4621 No, judging by your comments I honestly don’t think you grasp the context of the video. All he said was that crossing the river would be difficult. You disagree with that? Great! Make a video about it! As for Denmark’s CAPACITY? Do you even speak English? Are you just trolling? Hmm… I honestly don’t know if you’re intellectually challenged, so I can’t say you are just trolling, but it sure seems that way.
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The trouble with Russia is that this all inevitably leads toward communism (a nationalization of the entire economy).
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I get it, but both points are non-starters with Putin.
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@rednaxrednax1499 That offers no guarantees.
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@TheErazar An end game plan for your war? That’s a weird take.
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@simras1234 A third of European land.
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@simras1234 It’s “politically different” is the emptiest comment I’ve seen in a long time. The EU, as a unit, didn’t provide ANYTHING. Who cares if it’s politically different? That’s not an argument for anything being discussed here.
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@ So is the US. You don’t actually have a point, do you?
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@ Germany is arguably THE leader of the EU. It is the largest and wealthiest nation in the EU. France is arguably the second on that list.
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@simras1234 I’n sorry, I didn’t realizeI was dealing with a child.
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@ How do you know that?
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@wp9860 The answer to that is: they already are. They have been since even before 2022. Russian military equipment exports stalled since 2014, and those exports were funding production of all of their modern era weapons. That’s why you don’t see any in any real numbers. That forced Putin to shift the war economy onto a purely communist structure, but it’s one that can’t sustain production long-term.
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@vyli1 I think you’re missing the internal political climate of Russia. If Ukraine manages to push Russia back to its original border, especially if it manages to re-take Crimea, Putin will not only be embarrassed, but will lose ALL support within his party, the Duma as a whole, his governors and the people. It will be the biggest national embarrassment in Russia’s history. Putin will not remain in power in that case. He may choose to off himself, to flee into exile or he may be arrested as a national traitor, but he will not remain President. When Putin call things “existential” for Russia what he really means is they are existential for him personally, and Medvedev, Shoigu, Peskov, etc.
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@vyli1 Regardless of what the new government will want, Putin still has only those 3 options. By the way, Russia can try Putin themselves and the Hague won’t interfere with it. It can’t. international law is NOT what people think it is. In the end, national sovereignty trumps every international law/treaty. So if the new government chooses to hold him accountable, the whole world will be looking to see if the new government deserves legitimacy by how they conduct the trial ams sentencing. If it doesn’t, I suspect Putin will flee. He will be a “persona non-grata” in Russia. Then he might be found, arrested and brought to the Hague.
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@ I don’t see how Russians will go for the North Korean scheme. Russians hate drafts. It also doesn’t improve the economy. It removes young men from universities and jobs and makes them do unskilled work for free. That equipment will then suffer from horrific quality issues because this labor force will be untrained and unexperienced.
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@Henry Hudson Russia had no issue holding the river bank. They had a problem holding a large city.
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