Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "TLDR News EU"
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@voya8480 I think you are right about Russian wheat. For humanitarian purposes, Russian wheat will be allowed to go to its usual markets. It's the oil and gas to Europe. In the long run, Europe was going with more renewable energy due to climate change. In the short run, European revenue to Russia for oil and gas is down. It's not all the way down, and it will not go all the way down. But less money for Russia means adjustments in Russia that would not be liked if revenues stayed the same or were going up. Those adjustments do not help Russia stay in this conflict. The West is just a bigger group of people with stronger economies than Russia. Like it or not, Ukraine has shown the world that it has a sense of national identity that it will fight Russia for. The Ukrainian soldier believes he is fighting invaders. His morale is higher than the Russian soldier's is. And morale matters. I don't think that high morale means Ukraine would invade Russia for any purpose other than to destroy military and logistical targets that threaten Ukraine. They have already done some of that. That forces Russia to increase protection of those targets. But at some point the Ukrainian soldier wants to go home, too. For Ukraine, the war probably ends when it considers all the Russian trespassers have left Ukraine. Maybe Russia can make that just too difficult for Ukraine in a fairly small geographic region. But if the West equips Ukraine with technological advantages that the Russian military cannot successfully counter, then the Russian military will have to leave. What Russia might do is keep the state of conflict going so it can prevent Ukrainian development of the oil and gas reserves that it recovered by ejecting the Russian military. Long range missile strikes from within Russia would force Ukraine to try to build an Iron Dome over new oil and gas facilities. That probably would just be too much trouble, and Russia would be protecting its market share for oil and gas from Ukrainian production. Russia does this in other places in a different way like Venezuela that used to produce 3 million barrels a day of oil, but now produces less than 1 million per day. Russia wants to keep oil prices high. OPEC countries want the same. But California, the most populated state in the US, had its first 100% renewable energy hour on its electric grid. They did not need to burn natural gas to meet peak load. That means more American and Canadian gas available for LNG shipment to Europe. That is the trend going forward. Climate change does not favor Russian oil and gas going forward, but more of Russian land may become useful for growing wheat which the world will need. Russia's ports will have less days closed due to ice. Spending money on this conflict is reducing Russia's ability to adjust to climate change. Countries that adjust successfully to climate change provide a good future for their people. Those that do not, not so good for their people. Bring your boys home, sir. There is important work for them to do.
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