Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics" channel.

  1. And that would start to turn the US MIC against Trump.
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  2. The FSB can hardly believe how good they have been in bringing that about.
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  3.  @Jonassoe  Yeah, that mineral deal would have greased his relationship with the US MIC that needs those minerals. Now they are starting to see higher mineral prices and losing market share for their products in Europe. The MIC tries to keep a low profile, but they are there, and they have serious political clout. They've got good paying jobs in almost every State and Congressional District to leverage politically.
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  4. Long live Canada, best neighbor a country could have. Kind regards from Florida.
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  5. In the short run yes, because they just got a surge of military aid from the United States. In the long term it looks very precarious if the US lifts its sanctions on Russia and ceases arms deliveries to Ukraine. Europe could hasten a more just settlement if they showed a will to fight and helped Ukraine recover key lands and infrastructure until Russia gets serious about an armistice. Showing Russia a will to fight would actually help secure Ukraine and Europe I believe. Putin's only option in that scenario is to start ending the planet. I'm not sure how he could see that as a win and I would think he would not be supported by the rest of BRICS in such an action.
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  6. Good point. Putin could get back to making money and just successively purchase European governments. Rubio just opened the US up to an expanded FSB presence, and Patel, if approved, will accelerate that and leave it alone to do its work.
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  7. I relate. Good comment.
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  8. Kotkin says Russia is now a vassal of China. The whole Russian inner circle has to be chafing on that. They need to grab more people and productive land to offset China. Ergo Ukraine, probably the juiciest looking fruit on the tree. As long as Putin's cunning and energy looks as good as anybody else's in that circle, then he's the guy. He could be at the helm for another 10 to 15 years.
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  9. That's where things can change, outside of Russia where they can no longer maintain their influence. Venezuela is an opportunity, but it is largely for Venezuelan expatriates to organize a counterforce to Russia's Maduro.
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  10. Because the dealmakers are better at persuasion or even mind control?
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  11. I guess the more India can buy at a low price, the less Russia will have to sell at a high price.
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  12. I would be surprised if Putin were politically displaced as long as his cognitive abilities remain competent. He's probably 10 to 15 years away from slipping in that respect. His shrewdness will keep him safe politically. Economically what could happen is that he just cannot sustain the logistics of the war compared to Ukraine and its allies. The Korean War may be the best model of what happens, the parties become exhausted and agree to an armistice. Speaking of armistice, I wonder if the Korean armistice has any bearing on NK troops fighting in Ukraine.
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  13. A lot of Europe is eager to get back on cheaper Russian oil and gas. That's Russia's path back to prosperity. They need to act like China and go into "friendly" mode for awhile. They'll be back. The world is too addicted to oil.
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  14. Putin has the FSB. The FSB didn't have Wagner because they didn't need to until recently. That all got re-organized so that does not happen again. Disloyalty among the strongest under Putin is an opportunity for an assassin to climb the ladder. I imagine a loyal "concern" within the FSB developing as Putin ages. We will not like the successor. It's entirely possible the world might see Putin's term as a preferable time. But the Russian military and economy has been weakened. Putin and the new leader will always be looking to turn that around through the sale of commodities and influencing the price of those commodities. Ergo Venezuela, that used to produce 3 million bbl of oil per day. Under Russian influence, that nation produces about 1 million bbl per day.
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  15. Musk could make a sign for "TRUMP" so big it could be seen from space!
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  16. The US MIC and other industries will have to pay higher prices for rare earths. They do have some political clout.
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