Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette" video.

  1. We do not know Putin's intentions. We do not know if Russian perceptions are those of desperation or will to power or what percentages of both. What we see is that Putin annexes small regions of adjacent nations. It would be reasonable to assume there is an underlying and less spoken issue for his doing so. Russian public statements are so often mendacious it is reasonable to assume the world is always being tested by Russian pretext in search of opportunity. The actions of Russia indicate they want jurisdiction over particular and additional lands, no matter how badly they have damaged them. Looking at the geography and economy and climate change aspects of Asia and Russia, what Russia really needs to be concerned about in the long run is China. Russia and Mearsheimer seem to quietly put great stock in the simple difference in population between Russia and Ukraine. The difference in population between China and Russia is considerably more acute, and the difference in relative economic power amplifies it. The Chinese, more than ever, have cause to downrate Russian conventional military capability. The densely populated areas of China are subject to sea level rise impacts. Those people will need a place to go. The land areas north of China, while not a paradise, would be mor habitable in a warmer world. Rather than Japan, the analogy here is Afghanistan, a nation the Soviet Union considered within its sphere of influence and Islam a long-term existential threat to Russia. The Soviets were worn down by a motivated native population supported by the West. They pulled out. The Russians can pull out of Ukraine, and Ukraine is aligned, preferably for Russia perhaps, not with the Islamic empire but with the American empire. While potent at a distance, the US is unlikely to establish anything like an offensive capability against Russia in Ukraine. This is demonstrated by the limited deployments of US troops and other forces to Estonia, Romania, etc. It would be American oil and gas interests that would want to break up Russia into smaller parts. The revenue from sales to Europe is obviously lucrative.
    1