Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "Binkov's Battlegrounds" channel.

  1. This is what in logic class we call a vague argument.
    9
  2. Victory has been just around the corner for about a year now.
    9
  3. Agree that Ukraine needs to cut the land bridge. Russian armor is not what is used to be, nor is Ukrainian armor. Russian armor power has declined, while Ukraine's has increased in quality and in time quantity. Whichever side has the best ISR will gain the advantage. Focusing long range missiles on the Sevastopol port military infrastructure would increase pressure on Russia to negotiate. Russia wants that port and it wants fresh water for Crimea. Those are the pressure points. Keep hitting the Kerch bridge and tourism will be next to zero, undermining Russia's Crimean economy. Ukraine does not need to invade Crimea before it is ready to do so. Ukraine needs Russia to be distracted by something like losing influence in Belarus that would require them to station more troops there. The West needs to support the kind of full-on subversion campaign in Belarus like the Russians did in the Donbas. Put Russia into a choice between Crimea and Belarus.
    7
  4. Insightful. Well said.
    6
  5. Morale matters. To the extent some Russian soldiers have a conscience, they are at a disadvantage, while Ukrainians trying to repel a ruthless invader have a morale advantage. This parameter is important in any forecast of performance. Something I never thought of was how Russian corruption extended deeply enough into military readiness to make a difference in the field. That can't help morale either. Finally, Russian soldiers probably know they cannot easily go home, and that will drag this out. They have seen too much leadership failure. They would sow cynicism for the rest of their lives. They are better off surrendering to Ukraine, seeking asylum, and tasked with the manual labor needed to rebuild Ukrainian cities destroyed by Russia.
    5
  6. Winter is a good time to train troops for spring operations. Both sides are doing that training. There isn't much point in shipping Western weapon systems until Ukrainian troops complete their training with them. The army with the best ISR will achieve more objectives. We'll see. One wonders how much planning goes into the psychology of public statements by the various governments. The West seems to be using some techniques of managing the psychopathic nature of the Russian regime. There are workarounds for supplying electricity to Ukrainian buildings still able to receive it. I imagine there is a policy to leave lights off to help keep any heat on. The trouble with the workarounds is that they require extensive distribution of fossil fuel, but it can be done. The workarounds are likely to be more extensive in the next winter, and Russia does not have enough missiles to thwart a more distributed generation system. I have been disappointed to see that implementing this alternative power system has been as slow as it has.
    4
  7.  @js70371  I look forward to the day when Eastern Ukraine folks get to vote with their feet. Some will stay. Some will leave, if they are allowed to leave. Will you let them leave?
    4
  8.  @js70371  Can their pension be deposited in the international bank of their choice?
    4
  9.  @manuelfloresescobar7657  Math problem: Calculate the total sq km of the four oblasts annexed by Russia that are not within the Russian side of the front. Calculate the average daily acquisition of sq km by Russian forces over the last month. Divide the first calculation by the second calculation. Approximately how many more days will it take Russian forces, at the current average rate of acquisition, to acquire the remains sq km of the four annexed oblasts?
    2
  10. Are these findings the result of you personally performing a field inspection throughout the battlespace? I doubt it. I keep seeing new pictures of Putin and Zelensky so I figure they both are still alive. The rest is fog of war.
    2
  11.  @alexanderirving7577  I would say the petroleum industry destabilized the Middle East. Having the lowest cost of production can be something of a curse. Russia, having its own oil resources, has little interest in having other countries produce oil and thus hold down the price of oil. Oil and natural gas revenues explain a lot of Russian behavior.
    2
  12. I don't believe in the infinite capacity of any nation, but Russian commenters seem to believe that Russia does have infinite capacity, or at least more than any other nation. The historical cases against a larger nation thinking it can always conquer a smaller nation that is backed up by other nations are Vietnam and Afghanistan. And Afghanistan was accessible by land to the Soviet Union. Both of those wars went on for years. This could be similar. A difference is that China is dependent on exports to the West and is thus constrained from providing the kind of help it did to Vietnam that might to Russia at this time. And Russia is not the Soviet Union in terms of population. Nor are the Russian people in as much solidarity with the Russian regime as the Ukrainians are with theirs. In all three cases, a smaller nation is fighting for itself against an invader. There is no historical support for the certainty of Russian victory, the evidence indicates the opposite: years of fighting and eventual Russian withdrawal. I have seen many instances in these comments in which Russian sympathizers seem to be in denial of history and the fundamentals of economic and military power. We all like to feel we are part of something great, but we also need a measure of humility and tentativeness to avoid hubris.
    2
  13.  @lani6647  The leaders hide behind their nuclear weapons while they order common people to their deaths. Psychopaths do not care.
    2
  14.  @mvpdjg4965  Yeah. It's kind of vote for Putin, and live. Vote against Putin, you got trouble.
    2
  15. Musk might want F-35 funding diverted to corporations he owns.
    2
  16. Yeah, and if those armored formations don't have good air cover and ECM to thwart Ukrainian drones, they will get mapped out and plinked from the sky along with losses to Javelins and the like. Things are more balanced out there than this video portrays, and the side with the superior situational awareness and precision ranged attacks is going to win. I wish one of the possessing nations would get Ukraine ATACMS. It's designed to wreck the kind of Russian attacks presented in this video.
    2
  17.  @ieuanhunt552  Then it blows my mind that Russia started offensive operations on February 24th, unless they thought it was going to be a short war.
    2
  18. My Ukrainian friends say they fight for liberty from the demonstrated depravity of the Russian regime. They fight for a better future for the people of their nation. Their businesses look to the European market and the day Ukraine takes Russia's place as a supplier of oil and gas. Exxon, Shell, and Chevron say it is there and they know how to get it.
    2
  19. The hubris and delusion of the Russian sense of its own infinite capacity. A better Russia would have 400 million people or more by now. Where did they go? To their death in the camps. To Israel. To anywhere. Russia is committing genocide again, as it did in the Holodomor, without remorse. As Christopher Hitchens described it: "a psychopathic dictatorship."
    2
  20.  @starchild692  I have watched several videos that recount historical invasions of Russia. The last serious one was by Germany. That was before nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons fundamentally change Russia's geopolitical situation. That is why they maintain 6500 warheads, more than any other single nation. Russia would have every right to use nuclear weapons to repel an invasion of its territory. It is reasonable to conclude that no one would invade Russia today. Would they strike Russian military targets if Russia was invading them? Yes, they recently have in Belgorod. Russian behavior in the nuclear age is not based on being invaded. I see that as fake paranoia. Russian behavior in the nuclear age has been similar to that of the United States, that is, imperial. Through invasion and annexation, Russia seeks to improve its general economic situation and the wealth of its elite. I give no credence to Russian security concerns for its own territory, because they completely discount the deterrent value of their nuclear arsenal. It is a false argument. US borders with Mexico and Canada are now reasonably settled matters, with no material changes to them in many decades. The US and Canadian border is one of the most peaceful in the world, and has every prospect of remaining so. It is similar in length to the border Russia shares with its western neighbors. While having superior population numbers and military forces, the US has not made any effort to annex any portion of Canada. How do we do that? A measure of respect, even love of neighbor. Do not project a Russian perspective on the US and its relations with its neighbors. They are clearly different than Russia's relations with its neighbors. Do we influence them? Yes. Do we dominate them? No, e.g. Cuba.
    2
  21.  @RenegadeElite101  Well said.
    1
  22. I know seven Russian speaking Ukrainians. They want nothing to do with Russian jurisdiction. Given what has happened, any Ukrainian who sincerely prefers Russian jurisdiction is misinformed.
    1
  23. Agreed. They make it untenable. Ukrainians no longer visit Crimea, and not that many Russians do either. The Sevastopol port is a fixed target. You can hit its military targets with old Soviet maps. Ukraine might be able to just drive in some day. For now, better to keep training and arming Ukrainian troops to further tip the balance of power toward a settlement by cutting the land bridge and the fresh water supply and provide a better deterrent for the future.
    1
  24.  @Mortablunt  Recurring themes of Russian infallibility, innocence, and infinite capacity.
    1
  25. Good job!
    1
  26.  @elgatoconbolas  Why did Russia have to mobilize more troops?
    1
  27.  @elgatoconbolas  I have a hard time believing: " It fails to mention that all of the weapons that Ukraine initially had, have been destroyed. Also, all of the Soviet army era of the former Varsaw Pact, have been destroyed, too." Has all the Russian equipment captured by Ukraine also been destroyed?
    1
  28. Hard to say. If the maps are close to right, then the sq km per day gained by either side indicates many months, even years before either side achieves its stated objectives. Each side is tempted to think the other will collapse if they just hang in there. So it goes on and on for a long time.
    1
  29.  @ks-qu4kj  NATO bases its status on its perception of Russian military capabilities, which have clearly been overestimated. As long as Russia has a nuclear arsenal and asserts its sphere of influence over its neighbors, NATO will exist. After the poor performance of the Russian military and the addition of Sweden and Finland, NATO as a whole may determine that it can reduce its conventional forces and still repel a Russian conventional invasion of a NATO member. NATO will continue to rely upon the US nuclear arsenal as long as Russia relies on its nuclear arsenal.
    1
  30.  @ks-qu4kj  Putin is a psychopath. There are thoughts that don't come easy to him, like thoughts of losing, and a compulsive need to win and be great. He is a somewhat like Donald Trump, although more intelligent I would say. He sees adjacent territory as available to add power to the Russian regime in the long run, even if that entails a huge setback in the short run. This is a long running characteristic of Russian leadership and contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union. The result was not a long-term increase in power, but a reduction in power. Psychopathic leadership demoralizes a population. The Russian nation, given its land area and agricultural capability, ought to have a population greater in number than the United States, but instead it is less than half the US population and far less than the population of the "West" it so often calls attention to. A similar comparison can be made between North and South Korea. Russia's underperforming demographics are a result of the success of the development of perhaps the world's most potent system of internal security. Those in that institution enjoy the finer things in life, while the rest generally underproduce due to despair and the alcoholism that often goes with that despair. That system sent millions in Ukraine and others all over the Soviet Union to their death in the camps or their disability if they survived the camps. As psychopaths, the leaders have no empathy for those they have treated unreasonably. To them, other people are a means to the leaders' perceived ends, because they truly believe that they know what is best for the country. They are always "right." That's what Gorbachev said about Putin, "He is always right." Surely you do not think he meant that literally.
    1
  31.  @hausser0815  But Putin goes to NK for ammo? Sounds like Russian ammo got depleted.
    1
  32.  @ЮрийМоисеенко-ц9о  You are right to make the point that Russia is not the only nation with interests that want oil and gas prices as high as the market can bear. Oil and gas interests have more of a global orientation than just a national perspective. Russia and America deserve some criticism for how they use their militaries in support of economic interests. The imperial impulse is a human impulse. Small, boutique nations have become very risky ventures. They inevitably must align with one of the empires. Look up the article by Anne Applebaum, "The Bad Guys Are Winning."
    1
  33.  @ЮрийМоисеенко-ц9о  President Biden backed off on sanctions regarding Nord Stream 2. The United States is finding out that sanctions can become a two-way street. Sanctions increasingly put the dollar at risk vs. the yuan (sorry, rubles not so much). And getting in the way of who or what? It makes sense for Germany to have access to some degree of pipeline options in order to moderate pricing. For the same reason it makes sense for Germany to pursue renewable energy and conservation and moderate its dependence on gas. It would also make sense for them, or anybody that can build them, to invest in atmospheric CO2 extraction plants so they can offset a couple of coal-fired plants well into the future. Sanctions are losing their potency. And that is kind of a bad thing, because conflict might get resolved in more violent ways. I disagree that the US can control European pipelines as it might have 10 or even 5 years ago. The US deliberately intertwined its economy with China, and both countries are starting to see that sovereignty is perhaps not what it used to be. The evidence that the United States does not completely control Germany is the fact that year after year, Germany does not meet US % of GDP expectations for German defense funding. Influence Germany, yes, but always tell it what to do, no.
    1
  34.  @ЮрийМоисеенко-ц9о  Thank you for the good thinking. Is not the idea of the EU to provide its small nation members a geopolitical counterweight to Russian power? As a whole, does Europe possess the scientific and production potential to be a center of influence?
    1
  35.  @ЮрийМоисеенко-ц9о  Yes, there are things to worry about. We need to be good citizens and do our part. However, I enjoyed a beautiful walk in my neighborhood early this morning, and I hope you have that opportunity as well. Kind regards, and I am happy to continue to hear your concerns and perspective.
    1
  36. Noooo. China and India get cheap Russian oil. Big win for them.
    1
  37.  @tiagodagostini  If Russia had air superiority, then the situation would be like Western Europe in late 1944 and 1945. Allied aircraft were strafing Germain trains and trucks, weakening German logistics and contributing to the retreat of German forces. The Ukrainian front is receiving enough supply to keep the Russian advance minimal. Air superiority includes the effective suppression of the enemy's air defense. Ukrainian aircraft are flying small numbers of sorties, but Ukrainian air defense is still very active, limiting Russia's capability to interdict Ukrainian logistics. The most successful Russian aircraft system I have seen in this war is the MIG-31 with its long-range missiles. These aircraft, along with Russian AD, have limited, but not eliminated, Ukrainian sorties. On the other hand, Ukrainian AD has limited Russian air operations. The best description of the situation is that it is "contested."
    1
  38. The advent of drone warfare has made a Black Sea Fleet of surface ships in the classical sense almost obsolete. Missile submarines in the Black Sea can still be effective, but in time naval drones in the air, on the surface, and underwater will increasingly threaten manned submarines. The Black Sea is not a vast place for a surface ship to hide in. Larger task forces with heavy anti-drone systems may have a chance, but the financial asymmetry of expensive ships vs. cheap drones works against that kind of approach. You can believe whatever you want to about who blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam. It's destroyed. Its supply of fresh water to Crimea is cut off. Russia is not conducting its war in any serious manner to take the territory necessary to restore the dam and the water supply. Russia's loss of control of the most strategic aspects of the Kherson Oblast is a clear indication of the inadequacy of the Russian military. Desalination plants may be practical for providing fresh water to a civilian population in Crimea, but they are not practical for agriculture or industries that require large amounts of fresh water. What the world sees now is that Russia and China engaged in trade with the West with the purpose of increasing their military power for territorial expansion and the autocratic consolidation of political power by Putin and Xi, lifelong rulers. The West has witnessed the seizure of Hong Kong, the oppression of the Uighurs, and the invasion of Ukraine. The West is now engaged in "de-risking" its economic relationships with China and Russia. Whatever sense of infallibility that golden era of trade created in Russia and China is likely to be moderated in the future.
    1
  39.  @tanernone3033  Somewhat fair points you make.
    1
  40. The notion of expansion is a Russian projection of its own intentions upon others. Russia is not interested in sincerely understanding its neighbors. It wants to control them. Russia is a psychopathic dictatorship in which winning is the only thing.
    1
  41. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have lost their homes to save their lives. Tens of thousands of Russian young men have lost their lives for the gleam in old men's eyes. Russia's demographics portend the eventual ceding of East Asia to China. Your argument of inevitability is based on the Russian population exceeding Ukraine's. China's population exceeds Russia's by an even greater factor. Similarly with China's economy vs. Russia's. The writing is on the wall, and this war is hastening the day. Russia, under KGB leadership, is self-defeating, again.
    1
  42.  @alexnderrrthewoke4479  The most fundamental measure of the Russian military is that it is still fighting because it has not been able to fully occupy the annexed lands in Ukraine. Bakhmut is not on the border of any oblaste. This is the most basic indication that the Russian military is more limited than many thought. The other indication is that if the Russian army is still fighting, then the Ukrainian army has not surrendered. I know these are obvious things, but from them we can deduce that Russian equipment is not always superior to Ukraine's countermeasures. When I said Russian armor is not what it used to be, I was referring to reports that T-62s are being brought out of storage to replace T-72s and T-80s. This of course assumes that T-72s and T-80s are better tanks than T-62s. "High quantity" is a vague term and is not the only measure of combat power. Targeting matters. Range matters. Coordination with other combat units matters.
    1
  43.  @alexnderrrthewoke4479  But if you are right, why doesn't Russia fully occupy all four claimed oblasts, and why hasn't Ukraine surrendered? Tanks are being destroyed by handheld weapons. These weapons can be produced in the thousands to offset the tank production numbers you mention. And now tanks are being destroyed by RAAM weapons. This is a war of drones, communications, guided missiles and long range artillery and counter battery radar. Tanks have a role, but it is limited. What really stuns me is the low value Russian leadership puts on human lives other than their own. Progress in Bakhmut has depended on human wave attacks leading to the loss of hundreds of lives on both sides every day. To me this is an utter loss of spirituality and conscience, and a total immersion in an addiction to victory over others. Russia is the exceptional nation now due to its brutality and its organizing itself around a theory of the superiority of the psychopathic condition. And they seem to wear the badge with honor. Such horror is unifying free peoples to defend themselves against Russia.
    1
  44.  @newcoatresurfacing5477  It's true that Ukrainian electricity supplies are low. It would make sense to use what they have to operate pumps and heat rather than light. The absence of light makes it harder for Russian reconnaissance to figure out where the distributed generation actually is. Gradually, distributed generation increases the availability of power, and with too many targets for Russian missile capacity to take out. Distributed generation can also be mobile, moving to new points of connection to local distribution systems. In essence, the number of small distribution substations is increased. This is similar to Russia dividing large stores of ammunition into smaller stores.
    1
  45. Star Trek, original series, "A Taste of Armageddon".
    1
  46.  @robertwilson214  All have sinned Robert. No claims of innocence. Both sides seem quite committed to the fight. Imperialism is a human impulse and is not confined to any particular nation. This is an imperial war over the wealth of Ukrainian land and the talent of its people. On an imperial statistical basis, Russia should retreat and settle costs. But no. Vanity, vanity, and the tragic death of tens of thousands of people. Save the pretexts. I have heard the great majority of them over and over again.
    1
  47.  @timlewellen6325  This is just the kind of optimism that avoids nuclear war while maintaining heavy Russian losses in the field. Rhetorically you are right where the West and Ukraine wants you to be under the circumstances.
    1
  48.  @timlewellen6325  "Credible sources" have particular names. Name them.
    1
  49. It makes no sense for the US to have a biological weapons lab in Ukraine. It would be permeated with spies from day one.
    1
  50. Try stating Russian progress in square km per day over the course of the last month. Divide Russia's desired sq km in Ukraine by that progress factor. That's a lot of months to go. Russia keeps waiting for Ukraine and the West to crack, and they don't crack. The Russian sense of its own infinite capacity is self-defeating hubris and delusion. Russia was raking in Western money, and then let its head get too big. This is the kind of setback that will set the stage for China to manage Russian East Asia. American energy companies are settling into the European market while renewable energy projects temper future demand for Russian oil and gas. The good old days have come and gone for Russia. They blew it for delusions of grandeur.
    1