Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "This is how Ukraine could retake Crimea" video.

Agree that Ukraine needs to cut the land bridge. Russian armor is not what is used to be, nor is Ukrainian armor. Russian armor power has declined, while Ukraine's has increased in quality and in time quantity. Whichever side has the best ISR will gain the advantage. Focusing long range missiles on the Sevastopol port military infrastructure would increase pressure on Russia to negotiate. Russia wants that port and it wants fresh water for Crimea. Those are the pressure points. Keep hitting the Kerch bridge and tourism will be next to zero, undermining Russia's Crimean economy. Ukraine does not need to invade Crimea before it is ready to do so. Ukraine needs Russia to be distracted by something like losing influence in Belarus that would require them to station more troops there. The West needs to support the kind of full-on subversion campaign in Belarus like the Russians did in the Donbas. Put Russia into a choice between Crimea and Belarus.
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Agreed. They make it untenable. Ukrainians no longer visit Crimea, and not that many Russians do either. The Sevastopol port is a fixed target. You can hit its military targets with old Soviet maps. Ukraine might be able to just drive in some day. For now, better to keep training and arming Ukrainian troops to further tip the balance of power toward a settlement by cutting the land bridge and the fresh water supply and provide a better deterrent for the future.
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@alexnderrrthewoke4479 The most fundamental measure of the Russian military is that it is still fighting because it has not been able to fully occupy the annexed lands in Ukraine. Bakhmut is not on the border of any oblaste. This is the most basic indication that the Russian military is more limited than many thought. The other indication is that if the Russian army is still fighting, then the Ukrainian army has not surrendered. I know these are obvious things, but from them we can deduce that Russian equipment is not always superior to Ukraine's countermeasures. When I said Russian armor is not what it used to be, I was referring to reports that T-62s are being brought out of storage to replace T-72s and T-80s. This of course assumes that T-72s and T-80s are better tanks than T-62s. "High quantity" is a vague term and is not the only measure of combat power. Targeting matters. Range matters. Coordination with other combat units matters.
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@alexnderrrthewoke4479 But if you are right, why doesn't Russia fully occupy all four claimed oblasts, and why hasn't Ukraine surrendered? Tanks are being destroyed by handheld weapons. These weapons can be produced in the thousands to offset the tank production numbers you mention. And now tanks are being destroyed by RAAM weapons. This is a war of drones, communications, guided missiles and long range artillery and counter battery radar. Tanks have a role, but it is limited. What really stuns me is the low value Russian leadership puts on human lives other than their own. Progress in Bakhmut has depended on human wave attacks leading to the loss of hundreds of lives on both sides every day. To me this is an utter loss of spirituality and conscience, and a total immersion in an addiction to victory over others. Russia is the exceptional nation now due to its brutality and its organizing itself around a theory of the superiority of the psychopathic condition. And they seem to wear the badge with honor. Such horror is unifying free peoples to defend themselves against Russia.
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