Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "What might happen if Russia does attack Ukraine?" video.

  1. Morale matters. To the extent some Russian soldiers have a conscience, they are at a disadvantage, while Ukrainians trying to repel a ruthless invader have a morale advantage. This parameter is important in any forecast of performance. Something I never thought of was how Russian corruption extended deeply enough into military readiness to make a difference in the field. That can't help morale either. Finally, Russian soldiers probably know they cannot easily go home, and that will drag this out. They have seen too much leadership failure. They would sow cynicism for the rest of their lives. They are better off surrendering to Ukraine, seeking asylum, and tasked with the manual labor needed to rebuild Ukrainian cities destroyed by Russia.
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  2. It makes no sense for the US to have a biological weapons lab in Ukraine. It would be permeated with spies from day one.
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