Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "Russia about to ‘run out of steam’ in Ukraine, says MI6 chief" video.

  1. "There are other territories." Yeah, the ones with oil and gas.
    59
  2.  @dama9150  Yes. You are right. Odessa is a fine port and ship building center. Note that Russia goes easy on the bombardment of Odessa. They want the port and the housing and amenities in ready condition for themselves. I have friends from Odessa. I hope Russia never gets there.
    3
  3. Do the math. Ukraine has 603,628 square km. The rate of land acquisition early in the war was rapid. Then it went negative when forces withdrew from the north. Now some say the Russian held area is 20% x 603,628 = 120,726 square km. Let's say Russia's new goal is 50% x 603,628 or 301,814 square km of Ukraine. So there are 301,814 - 120,726 = 181,088 square km left to take. Let's go with General Milley's observation that some days the Russian military will advance 1km along some part of the front. Let's say that part of the front is 20kM wide. So that's 20 square km per day on average currently. 181,088/20 = 9054 days or more than 24 years to achieve the goal. What is this, day 146 of the war? 120,726/146 = 827 square km/day. At 827 square km per day, Russia should reach its goal in 181,088/827 in 219 more days if it has not lost steam. Russia has not had days like that since the Ukrainian withdrawal from Luhansk. Why hasn't Russia put more forces into this war to keep up an 827 square km/day rate of land acquisition? Because . . . they are low on steam. Ukrainian military skill and weaponry is also slowly ramping up. This is the frog in the slowly warming pot of water technique (I'm fine . . . I'm fine . . . that don't hurt . . . I'm fine . . . ). There's never a day so full of bad news that Russian leadership thinks it needs to spasm with a tactical nuke. They are so used to glossing over small defeats. They don't seem to commit suicide. They seem to want to keep living . . . .like the frog in the pot.
    1
  4.  @jimgraham6722  Yes. Putin could not have Ukraine selling oil and gas to Europe. He may end up bringing that about anyway. We'll see.
    1
  5. No way the UAR would concentrate so many troops in a fixed building. No wonder no thinking person takes the Russian government at its word.
    1
  6. But not an inexhaustible supply of human beings willing to kill and die for Ukraine's oil and gas.
    1
  7.  @frankthetank5708  Yes, but 2050 sounds rather aspirational. I would think the EU would be farther along than they are on that. Not to the point of immunity to what Russia is doing now, but more in a position to point to an existing transition plan and how it might be accelerated.
    1
  8. Because they can buy it at bargain prices and sell it at the market rate. Because they are so vital to world supply no one, not even the US, dares say much about it. Get that plug-in hybrid if you are shopping for a car.
    1
  9.  @charliecharlie9787  I hear Russia is selling at a discount.
    1
  10. A month ago gasoline in my part of Florida was $4.79. Today it is $3.95. There are plenty of vehicles out on the roads. We can get gas. The discounted Russian oil is having its effect on the world market. How come before the Russians and Cubans moved into Venezuela that country was putting out 3 million bbl of oil per day and were paying poor Americans' heating bills as a rebuke of America? Now, under Russian and Cuban tutelage, Venezuela does well to produce 1 million bbl per day when they could be raking in money at the old rate. You know why? Russia doesn't want Venezuelan oil putting down pressure on the market price. Just like it doesn't want Ukraine developing its recently found oil and gas and selling it to Europe.
    1
  11.  @PA3456  There are cell phone apps that tell Americans where they can get the cheapest gas in their neighborhood. Help yourself.
    1