Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "Jake Broe"
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Well done, Jake!
Totally agree on ATACMS. With a strong rule of non-engagement of targets in internationally recognized Russian territory, ATACMS deployment in March 2022 would have started the change in momentum back then. However, some of the most powerful monied interests seem to have impressed upon the President and SOD that they would rather throw Ukraine under the bus than provide Ukraine with weapons that might trigger Putin's intolerance for loss. I take this from a SOD Austin single sentence early in the war. Somebody had to hear him say that in public.
In addition to improved AD, and because some missiles and aircraft are going to get through, Europe, the US, and South Korea need to make the effort to keep Ukraine supplied with replacement components for Ukraine's electrical system, as well as a steady supply of fuel and containerized, or trailered distributed electric generating units. Like artillery, these units can be moved to various improvised connection points on streetside distribution lines. This is key to Ukrainians finding refuge within their own country and keeping parts of the Ukrainian economy active through the winter and until the large plants can be restored.
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Per the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the US and UK had a basis for proposing military exercises with Ukrainian forces in Fall 2021 and Winter 2021/2022. Such exercises would have upset Russian calculations for the invasion of Ukraine. One has to wonder what foresight there was as to the changes that would occur in geopolitics since the invasion that favored the choice by the US/UK and others to stand aside and let the invasion happen. Yes, there was a failure of deterrence, but there is also now a notable list of changes that are favorable to the US: European defense budgets increased, European unity improved, the addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO, the replacement of Russian oil and gas sales to Europe with more US sales, the demonstration of Western equipment to the arms market, increased sales of US military equipment, the demonstrated poor performance of Russian military equipment to the arms market, the demonstration of the relatively poor performance of a military controlled by an autocracy, the greater leaning of Ukraine toward the West, the avoidance of Russian and European criticism of the escalation of tensions the exercises would have generated, and the moral clarity provided by Russia's bald act of aggression. We owe Ukraine a great deal for choosing not to deter the invasion.
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Thanks Jake for the logical argument for postponing ATACMS. I still think there have been and will be occasions where their presence and/or use could deter or counter Russian attacks. They would need to be a part of a strike package that would burden Russian AD, improving the likelihood of success while also improving the survivability of any piloted aircraft in the strike package. While Ukrainian AD and heightened electric utility repair capability can do a lot this winter, there may be something to ATACMS presence and use that could improve winter conditions for the Ukrainians. ATACMS could also pose a threat to MIG-31 bases. Currently MIG-31s and their very long-range air-to-air missiles provide a very serious CAP, limiting UAF operations. In the months ahead this CAP could begin to enable the re-emergence of Russian air power as Ukraine draws nearer to Russian borders. MIG-31s are also very fast, presenting a challenge for UAF AD. Like the ME-262s of WWII, their vulnerability is when they are low on fuel and on RTB or are in the open at their base. Not only the aircraft but their supporting base infrastructure would be more exposed to ATACMS as part of a strike package of UAVs, decoys, ECM, and HARMs. I'm not sure how the MIG-31 threat can be dealt with without threatening MIG-31 bases long range. F-16s do not match the air-to-air missile range of the MIG-31. It really takes F-22s, maybe F35s, to sneak up on a MIG-31. The downside for the MIG-31 is that it is not stealthy and it cannot turn hard to evade a missile. Ukraine can usually know where they are. Checkout Ward Carroll's latest piece with Justin Bronk.
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General Hodges and Jake, this was outstanding. Thank you. I wrote my Congressman, Brian Mast to voice my support for Ukraine. Here's what he wrote back:
Dear Mr. Trewyn,
Thank you for contacting me regarding foreign aid being sent to Ukraine. Your thoughts are important to me as I work to effectively represent you in Congress.
As a 12-year Army veteran, I have seen firsthand the global challenges and threats we are facing in the 21st century. I have also seen how the United States’ retreat from a leadership role in the international community has set the world on a dangerous course that threatens our national security and the security of our allies. As the greatest force for human dignity in the world, the United States must stand up for oppressed people.
However, there needs to be a serious debate about the United States’ involvement in Ukraine, and that conversation can’t take priority over helping Americans.
I want to see a Ukrainian victory against Vladmir Putin, but my first obligation is to you - the taxpayers of Florida’s 21st District. I believe there needs to be a clear and transparent accounting of how we are spending the tax dollars and what we are getting for our money. As such, until the Biden administration provides a clear, strategic, and objective plan for our involvement in Ukraine I will not support sending hard-earned taxpayer dollars for their war efforts.
That’s why, on Thursday, September 28, 2023, I voted against the Ukraine Security Assistance and Oversight Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (H.R. 5692). I don’t believe in throwing money at a problem. I believe in being thoughtful and spending where it counts. I will continue urging strong support from our allies and the development of a comprehensive national security strategy that is founded on the idea that the world is safest when America is strongest.
Thank you again for taking the time to contact me. If you’d like to receive updates about this issue and other news that’s important to our community, please sign up here. To follow along with my work on your behalf, please join me on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact me again. As always it is an honor to represent you in the United States Congress.
Sincerely,
Brian Mast
Member of Congress
I am tempted to write back and say that if we are "the greatest force for human dignity in the world", then we should be able to multi-task, especially with a federal work force of almost 3 million.
There's also a line from the song "We Are The World": "There's a choice we're making, we're saving our own lives."
My first reaction to his BUT was "I am not being shelled by Russian artillery! I am fine, with a good job and a good wife and a good kid and I think we should help Ukraine NOW!"
Anyway, this is what some of the thinking is in Congress.
Be proud of your efforts, gentlemen. Let us persist.
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C'mon, Jake. Joe Biden's job, given to him by American powers that be, was to absolutely minimize any risk of nuclear war, and, that done, weaken Russia, at Ukraine's expense if necessary. It was a dark policy, but it has largely worked. Russia continues to be weakened, and the American powers that be continue to be.
C'mon, Jake. There are not enough Republicans in Congress in favor of aid to Ukraine, but, coupled with willing Democrats, there are enough votes in Congress to continue aid to Ukraine. Trump can probably sign off on that as long as Congress has something for him in the deal.
C'mon, Jake. The Trumps howl hyperbole until they get a sweet deal from whoever they are howling at. That's the SOP around here for the next 4 years.
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Trump was handed a chance to be a strong man on Ukraine in this debate, accuse Biden and Jake Sullivan et al of being weak, and say he would increase arms shipments and other aid to Ukraine, even NATO air support, to quickly bring the war to an end. Instead, he said nothing about his methods. He would likely do exactly what Putin wants, stop aid to Ukraine and pull the US out of NATO. Russia for years has provided credit to Trump's business because his sons have said so. The rest of NATO and Ukraine would probably stay in the war to do the best they could, seeing that the Russian military has been degraded. Sweden already having seen the weak level of F-16 support, has started setting conditions for Ukraine to have their Gripen fighter, which is probably the best plane for the job after the F-35. It would be free of US restrictions on use of the F-16. Trump and Putin would see an expanded European nuclear arsenal and all the heightened tension that would go with that. Avoiding that tension is part of why the US promoted NATO in the first place. Poland, Ukraine, Finland and others would need to seriously consider nuclear arsenals of their own if the US nuclear umbrella is withdrawn. He doesn't look very far down the road his policies would take him. He just expressed an impatient wish to end things.
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As an American and an electrical engineer, I support Ukraine in its war against Russia. I have Ukrainian guests in my home. But on the subject of Ukraine's electrical system, I must point out that this is not a new tactic on Russia's part. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, which was wrong on Iraq's part, the following happened: More than 90 percent of Iraq’s electrical capacity was bombed out of service in the first hours of the “Gulf war”[17]. This comprised the country’s 11 major electrical power stations and 119 substations[18]. Existing generating capacity of 9,000 MW in December 1990 was reduced to only 340 MW by March 1991[19]. The United States apparently had designed a special weapon specifically to shut down Iraq’s electric power[20]. US Air Force officers acknowledged that targeting Iraq’s infrastructure (including the electrical power system) was related to an effort “to accelerate the effect of the sanctions”, that is to “degrade the will” of the civilian population and encourage it to overthrow Saddam Hussein[21]. Col. John A. Warden III, the deputy director of strategy, doctrine and plans for the U.S. Air Force, explained the rationale for targeting Iraq’s electricity system to Barton Gellman of the Washington Post: Saddam Hussein cannot restore his own electricity. He needs help. If there are political objectives that the UN coalition has, it can say, “Saddam, when you agree to do these things, we will allow people to come in and fix your electricity.” It gives us long-term leverage[22]. (emphasis added)
Military analysts contacted by Gellman estimated that it would take about a year to repair destroyed transformers or switching yards – with Western assistance – but that repairing main generator halls bombed by the United States would take five years[23].
Pentagon officials, contacted by Gellman, declined to offer written explanations on the specific military relevance of 28 electrical targets. A planning officer contacted by Gellman said
People say, “You didn’t recognize that it was going to have an effect on water or sewage”. Well, what were we trying to do with[the] sanctions - help out the Iraqi people? No. What we were doing with the attacks on infrastructure was to accelerate the effects of the sanctions[24].
Lt. Gen. Charles A. Horner, who had overall command of the air campaign, tried to downplay the injurious intent of destroying the electrical infrastructure by explaining to Gellman that the “side benefit”[of destroying the infrastructure] was ”the psychological effect on ordinary Iraqi citizens of having their lights go out.”[25].
So what Russia is doing is not new. I don't like it. I hope Ukraine's allies are rapidly providing replacement parts and even linemen and substation technicians to help restore power. I hope we have been providing diesel fuel and containerized, distribution voltage rated, diesel standby generators to Ukraine all this time to rapidly restore partial power to key surviving infrastructure and complicate Russia's targeting of electrical service. If we are going to call this a war crime, then I hope we have done what we could do for the Iraqi people to restore their infrastructure. We should be looking to seized Russian assets to help Ukraine.
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Jake, as you know, the Congress and the SCOTUS is supposed to be the check and balance on this Trump stuff, but when they don't do their job, the Constitution sets up the States to be the backup plan. The very large States (think California in "informal" alliance with Oregon and Washington, maybe Nevada) have the clout to do things like hire up FBI agents that need a new job. Indeed, if the best federal civil servants are being let go, then large States have an opportunity to hire this good talent. States can step up in many areas of life and provide good governance and attract like-minded people. If Trump keeps breaking rules, maybe States can ignore rules that keep them from exercising "federal" powers, acting in ways that strengthen their State economies while Trump-compliant States lose economically. The development of such a movement should prompt the new Secretary of the Treasury to have a quiet chat with the President about the full faith and credit of the United States starting to look less secure to lending markets that fund the national debt and annual budget deficits. States ultimately are the mechanism for groups of people to distance themselves or even spin off from a decadent federal government. Maybe it's just a genetic, evolutionary tendency in human beings to want an autocratic monarch. Perhaps people who see the advantages of greater freedom need to gather together in a smaller space to preserve the Constitution. America would no longer be a superpower, but the US Constitution would still be effective for the millions of people willing to defend it. Perhaps this is the one part of Putin and Xi's plan that is on schedule. This can sound like hyperbole, just like Trump, but I am saying the mere movement toward greater State autonomy (think Texas) should alert forward looking, exposed financial markets with considerable political power. Your interest in financial markets can really come to bear here.
As a veteran, I like to think we have an awesome military, but I suspect it has not improved its ability to govern another nation since Iraq or Afghanistan. I hardly think a loyalist Trump administration would have any more success.
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