Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "02 Dec: MUTINY! Thousands of Russians ABANDON POSITIONS IN KURAKHOVE. | War in Ukraine Explained" video.

  1. And soon he will be up against another guy who knows about stiffing contractors.
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  2.  @biggusdickus8452  Yes. The Ukrainian hope is that they can reclaim small areas by almost walking in unopposed to practical positions because the Russians have exhausted their capabilities in certain localities. The Russians are moving forward, but that extends and exposes their logistics farther from their limited air support. American strategy is to start a fight, locate the enemy, and call in air and artillery strikes. Russia just doesn't have massive ability to do that right now, and they are experiencing the occasional loss of aircraft to Ukrainian AD in some form.
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  3. The barrier troops must have been relocated to Kursk to herd the NKs into battle. But this is just a small, local collapse. I suspect Putin retains the confidence that his superior numbers will inevitably prevail. The Ukrainians have made good use of that confidence. The tragedy is that only now is Ukraine starting to get the kind of capability to disrupt Russian logistics it has always needed. Russia has to maintain a high level of logistical support to achieve numerical superiority on the battlefield. If that support wanes, the large forces grow short of ammunition, food, and other necessary supplies. That sets up desertion and retreat and Ukraine's careful, tactical recovery of territory. Look for Russia to push a redistribution of barrier troops to plug this hole. Sadly, Russian numerical superiority does give them months if not years of further endurance. Ukraine needs to pick territory for recovery very carefully. The development of Ukrainian air power has been too little, and if not accelerated, will expose Ukraine again in the future to the disadvantage of inadequate air power. Air power with good ISR could punch holes in the barrier troops.
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  4. Indicates a shortage of barrier troops in that locality. That comes with a longer front line created by multiple salients.
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  5. This sounds like a local shortage of barrier troops to enforce assaults. The many salients created by their new strategy seem to be stretching the barrier troop capability beyond its limit in this case. Otherwise, desertion is not an option.
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  6. Where's the time stamp of the claim of thousands? Maybe some of the barrier troops had to go to Kursk to encourage the North Koreans.
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  7.  @Drdargnet  Everybody but the Ukrainians laying mines and flying drones.
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  8. Ukrainian defensive strategy combined with Putin's overconfidence in his numerical superiority is thinning Russian combat power. This desertion situation indicates a failure of the barrier troop system. That could be due to the Russian strategy of increasing the number of salients and attack vectors. There's just not enough barrier troops at this location to prevent desertion.
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  9. If they were mass desertions, the front would collapse on one side or another in various localities. You make a good point on the timing. Russia has created more salients and attack vectors, and this could be stressing the barrier troop system. Ukraine has also learned to leverage drones and reduce its dependence on live infantry better than Russia.
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  10. I believe advancing lengthens supply lines and their exposure. I believe increasing the number of salients and attack vectors can lengthen the front and thin the presence of barrier troops. I believe taking more territory requires stationing some forces to defend that territory from special forces raids. So I believe it is possible that some Russian soldiers see an option when the front is too hot and they are not facing barrier troops if they retreat to safer ground. It would be sensible to live to fight another day under better circumstances, or not at all if possible. That's just survival instinct.
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  11. Not badly. Consider that Russia has lengthened the front by creating more salients and attack vectors. This would put the barrier troop system under stress, creating opportunities for Russian troops to retreat to safer ground. Russia is advancing, but that lengthens and exposes supply lines more. That can lead to food and ammunition shortages more easily. These things are true of a military advance. Putin is complaining about Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics in Russia. These strikes have some effect on combat power.
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  12. Well said.
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  13. Or the deep strikes on the Russian logistical system lead to such shortages of ammunition and food that the Ukrainians can pick advantageous forward positions that have simply been abandoned, hop in some Bradleys and just drive in. The fall back and attrit strategy is having effects. Putin wants to think he is winning, and the strategy lets him think that way while his army is worn down. But a similar wearing down can happen to Ukraine. That also keeps Putin hopeful. It's a feedback loop that keeps the battle going to one side's exhaustion or the other.
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  14. If the total length of the front has been increased by multiple Russian salients, that would stress the Russian barrier troop system. Both sides will plant this story to try to get a snowball effect.
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  15. Yeah, I bet this has set back Putin's other plans for expansion of his influence.
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  16. The Russians are creating multiple salients that increase the length of the front line. Evidently their barrier troop forces are becoming thin enough to make desertion a practical option for some.
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