Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "22 May: NOT SO FAST! Ukrainian Forces STOP \u0026 COUNTERATTACK RUSSIANS in Urozhaine | War in Ukraine" video.

What is notable is that the Russians rarely seem to amass the necessary air and ground forces to take a strategic logistical city in short order. This was an assumed capability pre-Feb 2022. This inability reflects Russian ambition exceeding Russian capability. As they did in Georgia, the Russians likely would have succeeded in securing the full territory of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts if they had focused on that mission. The Ukrainians also need to take a careful look at their ambitions and capabilities. Ukraine has clearly established a national identity and obtained significant foreign support. A possible strategy involves placing Crimea at risk of total uselessness to Russia and bargaining for the recovery of the full territories of Kherson and Zaporizhya oblasts in exchange for an armistice. It is likely that Russia will violate the armistice, and that Ukraine and its allies should be prepared at that moment to make further recoveries of Ukrainian territory. Watch Russia make a great fuss about Western forces being stationed in Ukraine upon an armistice. They are likely to be successful in intimidating the West on this issue, but they will also be setting the stage for a round of losing rather than gaining ground. Holding Kherson and Zaporizhya keeps Crimea at risk. While Western forces may have only a light presence after an armistice, they can facilitate increased Ukrainian capabilities to rapidly render Crimea useless again. Wherever the line of armistice is established, the conditions of the iron curtain are likely to re-emerge, with Ukraine facing intense subversive efforts by the Russians until Russian militarization results in another "catastrophic" Russian economic implosion.
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