Comments by "Tim Trewyn" (@timtrewyn453) on "NBC News"
channel.
-
16
-
11
-
10
-
8
-
8
-
5
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@inozz4c Fair points you make. Mearsheimer makes some good points, but I think he makes some bad ones, too, or just neglects to consider other important factors. True, one can only say so much in an hour.
Russia has more land area than any other nation, and with a relatively small population. I grant that much of this land is not arable. Climate change may increase the amount of arable land in Russia, or perhaps just slide it north. Climate change may not be good for Ukrainian agriculture. I think this is a very important forecast for Russia to understand and talk to the world about, because much of the world relies on Russia for wheat, fertilizer, and other food. Russia has been demonstrating forecasting of climate change impacts with respect to planning military facilities for Arctic operations. This is to say that I don't think Russia needs Ukraine for Russia itself to be a flourishing country. If Russia simply held its 1994 borders, NATO membership might grow, but that does not mean that NATO would take land within those borders from Russia. If Russia simply held its 1994 borders, it would not be experiencing any sanctions at all, and likely would have continued to increase its wealth, even perhaps to the point that wealth inequality within the country might be better addressed. Historians often point to the classical routes of invasions from the West as a rationale for Russian geopolitics. I say Russia's 6500 nuclear warheads have dramatically made the notion of any existing Western European nation invading Russia patently absurd, rendering the historical geopolitical environment invalid. Nuclear weapons change geopolitics. Western European behavior has been to concentrate government budgets much more on social well being than defense. The US has been criticizing Western Europe on this subject for a long time, suffering in many domestic issue while Western Europe has the funds to better address those same issues, such as national health care.
The perspective that "Biden" can stop the war implies that the US is the only significant player Russia faces in this conflict. The United States does not conduct the level of trade with Russia that Germany did. Russia may be gaining land full of destroyed buildings in Ukraine, but it is losing hard currency from Germany every day. Russia has proved it can miscalculate. It may be miscalculating the German people as much as the Ukrainians. The general consensus among the knowledgeable is that all governments are oppressive, but Russia is among the worst when it comes to forcing its citizens to mind their words very carefully. This sets up a spiral of poor morale, an unusual level of alcoholism, and self-defeat, and this has been made evident by the poor performance of a large, well equipped Russian military that should have won this war by now even in the face of the very gradual arming of Ukraine by the West. I have no doubt the FSB and other internal security agencies of Russia are ready to impose Russian jurisdiction on the totality of Ukraine, because they are the primary beneficiaries of the Russian system. They set up a system that talented middle class people seek to escape, forcing security services to focus on people try to leave the country. Bad as people may thing the US is, we have a problem with many people trying to get into our country. What seems to be at the root of Russian leadership dysfunction is a predominance of psychopathic values within it. These values explain the otherwise seemingly senseless need for periodic victories over its international neighbors, e.g. Donald Trump touting to his followers "We are going to win so much, you are going to get sick of winning." Yes, psychopathy is everywhere. The average citizen in the US has minimal power, but they do have a vote and they have an absurd number of guns. Russian leadership very much seems to lack the checks and balances that would improve the lot of average people.
And there it is, much of my case for why it should be Russia that ends the war now and starts reforming its government and rebuilding what trade it can with the West. But I am not holding my breath.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1