Youtube comments of Tim Trewyn (@timtrewyn453).

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  106. The war continues because Ukraine and its supporters believe they can improve Ukraine's negotiating position through offensive combat operations. The extent of this will largely be discovered this year, but no one can say exactly how that turns out at this time or how long it takes to get both sides to see that talks have become a better way to achieve their political objectives. Allied weapons deliveries have limited the scope of the Russian campaign of ferreting out opposition in occupied areas. This process has included mass murders as evidenced by mass graves found in areas Ukraine recovered, e.g. Bucha. There is some argument that the current stalemate has facilitated the evacuation to safety of civilians who may have otherwise been victims of Russian occupation operations. In what here has been one of the better and more balanced of advocacies of a cease fire I have listened to, the lack of acknowledgement of how Russian forces behave in occupied areas, which do not cease in a cease-fire, is disturbing and to me further discredits the movement. The not so hidden suggestion Ms. Bennis makes is that Western populations act to weaken the ultimate Ukrainian negotiating position. Another questionable aspect of this advocacy is to serve as a messenger for Russian nuclear threats and in the same presentation make no acknowledgment that the US, UK and Ukraine agreed in the 1990s to transfer Ukrainian held nuclear weapons to Russia. That was a huge concession to Russian security interests in exchange for Russian respect for the border. The public should understand that both the Russian and American empires face mutual nuclear annihilation, and that a Russian resort to nuclear weapons would show the global South that such weapons are now established as an active Russian tool of the 21st century. How could it be that Russia considers such an act in its long-term interest? The use of nuclear weapons by Russia is more likely to result in the up arming of NATO and long-term sanctions, a thing Russia does not want at all. In the long-run, Russia, like many other nations, needs the West and the South to offset very potent Chinese global influence. Part of Russia's goal in making nuclear threats is to stimulate just this kind of advocacy that works in Russia's interest. This war is an awful, unjust, horrible event. As much as human beings might want to stop it, there is also something to punishing the Russians for their aggression.
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  178. American dominance of NATO is of course used to further US interests. Over the years European nations enjoyed the opportunity to spend less on defense and more on domestic well-being, which after the devastation of WWII was quite necessary. This suited the US MIC. This also served US interests by creating a greater contrast between the USSR and Europe in terms of quality of domestic life. This contrast, coupled with very large defense expenditures by the USSR, contributed to the posture of Belarus and Ukraine to sever from Russia in the early 1990s. The people of Ukraine saw and wanted the European lifestyle in place of the mind control that had been exercised upon them by the KGB and Moscow elite. It is in the US interest to reduce the number of people under KGB/FSB control because the KGB/FSB is a power rival of the US. It is the "state" that Russia would use nuclear weapons to defend. Russian speaking peoples in Ukraine and Belarus are very much a threat to the KGB/FSB monopoly on power in Russia, especially if they are allowed to achieve a European lifestyle subsidized by US defense spending. One could argue that the EU could be an instrument of European autonomy and contrary to US interests. In this respect both empires, the US and Russian, may be acting to empower division between European states. The rock bottom standard for NATO membership is opposition to the Russian empire and a measure of support of US interests in exchange for a measure of national autonomy. And the Europeans have not found the deal all bad for them, they have enjoyed reduced military expenditures and a high quality of life in the middle of this contest between empires. I don't feel so much lied to by NATO statements as I do feel left to consider the power dynamics on my own.
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  195. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 included the nuclear demilitarization of Ukraine and the assurance of the UK and the US and Russia to support the sovereignty of Ukraine. The MIC may be for Ukraine in NATO (no citations of specific MIC NATO advocates by Sachs), but so is a portion of the Ukrainian people. It's a tell (of an uneven opposition to the MIC and/or sympathy for Russia) when the Memorandum is omitted from these discussions. If the US had assisted Ukraine in remanufacturing the Soviet nuclear warheads it had in the early 90s, maybe we would not be dealing with a war in Ukraine now. But everyone seemed to agree that Russia's security concerns needed to be accommodated. Whether or not Ukraine was in NATO, the prospect of weapons sales to Ukraine existed. Again, this is left out of the discussion, and to me, it largely discredits the discussion. But Iraq, yes, that was a bad war started on a bad basis as far as I can tell. Mr. Sachs proposal of US baiting of the Soviets into Afghanistan may be true. The two empires were contesting each other everywhere for primacy. One way to look at that is that the Soviets/Russians, too, have a problem with the idea of restraint. They may have more wisely chosen to improve the security of their border rather than underwrite a particular government in Afghanistan. Given that much of Russia's land, like Canada's, is rather cold and remote, it still stuns me a bit when the world's largest nation by land area, yet in terms of population does not seem proportional to that land area, still feels it needs more land.
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  198. I have been a foster parent and encountered personalities that made my skin crawl. There are people, mostly men, who have little or no conscience. I would have to supervise their visits with foster children I was responsible for. Sobering, delicate diplomatic experience for me. I encourage you to talk to a social worker sometime who deals with these situations on a working basis. It might be a little healing. My understanding is that the fundamental strategy is to keep the 12-year-old alive in the context of their nuclear family. Foster care is a backup plan when the child's life is at stake or continued impregnations and/or abuse are likely. What the system probably received from her parents was a confidential signed statement that the daughter would not be impregnated again nor sexually abused from that time forward. That may not mean much to the father other than to know if his daughter showed up pregnant or otherwise bruised again somewhere, she would be removed from their home, representing a shame difficult for him to process (see Donald Trump). Foster parent training emphasized being part of set of services to re-unite a child with birth family, based on the finding that sometimes family therapy and foster care do work. It would be of some interest to find out the course of that 12 y.o.'s life since that time. I hope she has been able to put together a good life. I think things have changed since 1975 as far as State intervention for the safety of children. And that principle, the safety of children who cannot support or defend themselves, is, quite apart from religion, at the legal core of what might be lawful or unlawful abortion. While many conceptions fail on their own, each conception is the merger of parental DNA and the formation of a new, unique human life in its earliest stage. It's how we all got started. That's just the straightforward science of it. The State and society do have interests: economic and psychological readiness of parents, physical health of parents, especially the mother, the likely costs to society to support pregnancy or not support it, the morale of the State licensed professionals charged with carrying out abortions safely for the mother, and a positive or negative outcome as to the morale and productivity of the parents and child going forward. The State needs a demographic that supports its policies and programs. The State needs new officers and soldiers because the world and our nation in various places is often a street fight of some kind. Sometimes the State ends lives. And the more we look at it, the more our conscience can adjust to the many considerations. Because there is a spectrum in the quantity and quality of conscience in human beings, it is difficult to arrive at a social consensus as to what to do and what principles to develop and apply to each case. Courts recognize the operation of conscience when they make a finding whether the defendant shows remorse or no remorse. Religion is not directly invoked in the court. A social norm is invoked. When does human life deserve due process before being ended by a State licensed professional? After a life of processing this issue, I find the vocabulary of the discussion ("health care") wanting, on a par with my being subject as a US Army soldier who could be ordered to kill other humans, being described thereafter as having "established security." Let's not whitewash what we are doing here. For various reasons, a large body of US citizens feel that during pregnancy parents are judge and jury with a right to demand that, for their health and safety, a State licensed professional execute an emerging child chemically or physically. And, given the number of incidents, this service needs to be available annually on an industrial scale? Some of us feel like an Allied soldier walking into Auschwitz. Tough topic. I read your anger on that specific case. I get angry at fathers like that, too. Kind regards for your telling the story.
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  241. What Britian and Europe can have been doing since the invasion is a steady buildup of the Ukrainian Air Force. This is necessary because the structure of NATO relies upon air forces to deter Russian aggression. NATO was never going to be able to replace air power with 600,000 artillery shells per month. The NATO method is precision strike, which includes a large percentage of munitions, not all, delivered by air power. If this air power building effort has been underway since 2022, then we should start to see some serious fruition of capability in 2025. Certainly US and other armed forces put even more time into training combat pilots than three years. But three years of training can get a pilot prepared for a small set of mission types. Serious Ukrainian air power, in the form of adding a wing (say 72 aircraft with aircrews and all support) per year starting in 2025, can tilt the war into a set of circumstances that motivate Putin to cut a deal. Putin's MIC has its limits, and those limits have required the depletion of stored armor and artillery that to date have allowed Russia to fight with a tempo it is losing the ability to sustain. Russia can probably sustain some tempo for many years. But a larger and well-equipped Ukrainian air force can concentrate combat power on vital locations that will put Russia in a much more defensive position and subject to loss of those vital locations. Ukraine can only do this with significant European assistance, and as much as it can get from the Trump administration. I can see the rhetoric teeing up Trump to look weak if he does not continue significant assistance to Ukraine.
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  266.  @Ubesoft-vc5te  My conclusion is that the Ukrainian armed forces are very impressive to be able to make the kind of stand they have against all this Russian numerical superiority and Russian strategic and tactical sophistication. And with less than a highly refined demographic, Russian tactics are reckless in their tolerance of human losses. Imagine if Russia was up against a numerically superior and technically capable peer force like NATO (or China). What would happen if Ukrainian air power was even half of that of Russia's? What would happen if NATO air power was brought to bear? Remember, when it was looking very dire in the Korean War, the Chinese came to the aid of North Korea. Maybe NATO is looking for a certain buffer zone, too, and Russia shouldn't push so far they end up getting pushed back to something like the "DMZ" of Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea. The Russian economy is under stress and getting worse. That indicates Russia's strategy is not wholistic. It's an addiction to victory. I think the smart strategic move for Russia is to select the best defensive positions they have under current occupation, fall back to them, and see if Ukraine realizes that they just cannot do much in the way of counter-offensives. If Russia continues on this path, it is going to be Russian occupied weak points on the front that lose the capability to keep the Ukrainians from just driving into them unopposed. Russian lines of supply are stretching longer. Ukrainian lines of supply are getting shorter.
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  299. Per Elizabeth Baylor, medical anthropologist, University of Alabama: Ethnocentrism is a term applied to the cultural or ethnic bias—whether conscious or unconscious—in which an individual views the world from the perspective of his or her own group, establishing the in-group as archetypal and rating all other groups with reference to this ideal. This form of tunnel vision often results in: (1) an inability to adequately understand cultures that are different from one’s own and (2) value judgments that preference the in-group and assert its inherent superiority, thus linking the concept of ethnocentrism to multiple forms of chauvinism and prejudice, including nationalism, tribalism, racism, and even sexism and disability discrimination. Ethnocentrism is a concept that was coined within anthropology and formed the cornerstone of its early evolutionary theory before becoming one of the discipline’s primary social critiques. It continues to both challenge and inspire anthropologists, shifting in meaning and application with theoretical trends and across the subdisciplines. For many anthropologists in the Boasian tradition, ethnocentrism is the antithesis of anthropology, a mind-set that it actively counters through cultural relativism, education, and applied activities such as cultural brokering. Physical anthropologists have tended to define the concept more generally as preferential cooperation with a defined in-group and to interrogate its potential evolutionary origins, while the postmodern trend has been a growing suspicion of the anthropologist’s own ability to transcend cultural bias in his or her analysis and presentation of the “other,” leading to an emphasis on reflexivity and subjective diversity. Outside of the discipline, ethnocentrism is a topic of study for biologists, political scientists, communication experts, psychologists, and sociologists, particularly in the areas of politics, identity, and conflict. Marketing has seized on the term to describe consumers who prefer domestically produced goods, and the derivative ethnocentric has become a common criticism in the era of globalization for those assuming their own cultural superiority.
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  319. Mobilizing Western air forces into eastern Europe and dropping airborne troops into key areas of Ukraine during the Chinese Olympics might have so disturbed Russian military calculations that they might have cancelled the invasion. Russia insisted they were only in exercises up to the last day, so they had a face-saving way out at that point. However, it is doubtful that many silver linings would have emerged from the conflict such as European unification, NATO expansion, Russian attrition, US sales of oil and gas to Europe after Russia's loss of the European market, deterioration of the Russian economy, revenue for the US MIC, productive use of aged US military stocks, and the demonstration of poor performance by the Russian military and good performance by Western weapons. There is some thought that Russian performance has even given the Chinese military pause in its designs on Taiwan. One wonders how many of these benefits were forecast by Western intelligence and used to support a decision that standing aside from the Russian invasion was the low risk, high benefit option for the West. This of course would need to be masked by expressions of surprise at Ukrainian performance, regardless of years of US military aid. Note the total lack of US surprise about the invasion. Note the idea that somehow Russia might be talked out of an invasion that to Russian eyes faced little opposition. Sorry Ukraine, we definitely owe you a great deal. Thankfully Putin left a lot of money in Western banks. But the lives lost are a terrible price to pay for this course of action/inaction and perception of the long-term good.
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  387. Prior to the invasion of Iraq, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Iraq was repelled from Kuwait. Still, after that, Iraq maintained the world's fourth largest military and had demonstrated aggression and expansionism. Containment of Hussein and his sons after him might have been a better strategy for Iraq's neighbors. There was a lot of selling of Iraq's internal repression at the time, kind of like Putin selling Russians on Ukrainian oppression of "Russian speakers" (lots of Ukrainians speak Russian) within Ukraine. But I think the West could actually name names and incidents of that repression, whereas I am still waiting to see an Amnesty International list of oppressed Russians in Ukraine. There was concern that Hussein's sons would be worse than Hussein himself. In America there was strong suspicion about the whole Iraq WMD accusation. Leading Americans said the American people were being duped. Oil considerations were involved, and Iraq sits on some of the world's cheapest oil to produce, i.e., most profitable. Russia today also has a matrix of considerations about Ukraine that shape its strategy, including oil and gas. The invasion of Iraq made things miserable for many Iraqi's, and then ISIS happened and it got worse. Makes one wonder if it is best for Western nations to not try to project too much of their own values and methods on Islamic cultures. Political/clerical leadership in those nations are pretty sure they have a better system. So yes, Iraq was a pretty dangerous independent country that, in an era of American exceptionalism, was a tempting place for certain American leadership to invade and reconstruct to its liking. It's hard to model what Hussein's sons would have done with the country had they stayed in power. But I lean toward it probably being better for everybody if containment of Iraq had been the policy. I do not remember many people making detailed forecasts of how bad the aftermath could end up being. We should assume the aftermath of Ukraine will also be complex and perhaps beyond our ability to helpfully forecast with various models.
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  396.  @saniksafi2411  I am an electrical engineer, so I will bring that perspective. The offensive puts the KNPP at some risk, enough that Russia thought it would be good to video an IAEA inspector on the site saying it would be bad if Ukraine tried to occupy the plant. Electrically, Ukraine does not need to attack or occupy the plant, it just needs to bring electrical transmission gear near the plant into the range of accurate artillery and/or missiles that could take and keep those facilities out of service. Enough auxiliary power can be left in place to keep the KNPP safe. The obvious item on the table would be the eventual return of the ZNPP to Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine is positioned for this yet, but they are closer than before and could make progress on the goal. The KNPP is important for surrounding industry, some of which is important for Russia's war effort. It's not a war crime to attack electrical substations that are primarily powering war industry. Russia commits war crimes by attacking Ukraine's civilian electrical infrastructure. Ukraine still has the moral high ground with the international community on this issue. But Ukraine setting up a credible threat to the electrical output of the KNPP and any other regional electrical infrastructure could set the stage for a specific agreement for both sides to end attacks on electrical infrastructure. Russia having seriously degraded Ukrainian infrastructure, might be tempted to take such a deal to protect its capacity for the winter. Ukraine would still be disadvantaged, but would have the opportunity to reconstruct without having repaired facilities attacked again. However, given Russia's morality, I would expect them to resume attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in the following spring or once a short-term loss of capacity was much less of a threat to them.
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  424.  @ianLord77  I have heard this narrative over and over again, framing the situation with extreme hypotheticals. It denies any nation in Russia's "near abroad" any serious agency regarding its own security concerns, as if 140 million Russians, and especially their leaders, are significantly more important than the 160 million Europeans on or near the western Russian border. And the nation with the world's largest nuclear arsenal, Russia, can never be "not posing any kind of a threat". It was very much in Russia's interest for Ukraine not to have nuclear weapons, and that interest was accommodated. What happens when Russia or China puts troops in America's near abroad? China put its own law enforcement, not in Canada or Mexico, but right in the United States. A couple of them got caught. That doesn't mean they were the only ones keeping tabs on ethnic Chinese in the United States. Did America resort to some kind of extreme? No. It started a due process. I think it better for Russia if its own westward expansion is not realistic, and it sticks to its own domestic development, slowly re-establishes its international trade, and has some gratitude rather than hubris about being number one among nations in land area and nuclear warheads. Ukraine's threat to Russia is not in hosting NATO military bases. Its threat is that its people speak Russian, and that, coupled with thousands of exchanges between European, democratic Ukrainians and repressed Russians, could create trouble for the Kremlin. "NATO expansion" is Russia's line, because NATO gets in the way of Russian expansion.
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  580. Why should Ukraine go on the offensive when they can better reduce the Russian military by remaining on the defensive? So far, the Russian military has been very stubborn about maintaining a very costly offensive. The advantages of the defensive keep Ukraine at a rough parity of strength with Russia. Ukraine has demonstrated that it can withstand the effects of what will probably turn out to be the best mobilization that Russia could put together, although not the last. They will keep coming because that is the nature of the Russian regime. At some point reduced Russian forces will have to choose to stop offensive operations or risk the loss of its least defended acquisitions. Putin is committed to remaining on the offensive. That keeps sanctions in place, further weakening the Russian economy and fueling discontent. A high loss offensive could break Ukrainian defensive capability and give Putin a chance to achieve his objectives. Instead, Ukraine should keep chatting up various offensive possibilities to force the Russians to distribute their forces and weaken their offensive capability. Ukraine needs high quality ISR and long range weapons to continue to harass and destroy Russian rear activities. Meanwhile, Ukraine can continue to defend, train, and equip to almost walk into areas the weakening Russians will no longer be able to defend. It is true that adjustments could alter the advantage of Ukraine remaining on the defensive, but I do not see how that comes about. Ukraine needs to identify a practical border that it can protect going forward.
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  589. SECDEF Austin, around Feb/Mar 2022, slightly hinted in a public appearance that powers-that-be in the US are insistent that almost any risk of nuclear war be avoided. I believe it was the same press conference in which he cited the war as an opportunity to weaken Russia. The Russians saw this and therefore keep talking about nuclear weapons. I am concerned that this matter of supplying Ukraine is not at all up to the POTUS or the SECDEF or the Congress or the general American public. These powers generally approve of weakening Russia or Ukraine would not be getting the aid it is getting, but their own interests take precedence over Ukraine's survival. Our government is managing the situation between these rival powers in Russia and the West. I think if General Hodges was on the inside he would be getting the details on this situation and would probably understand the predicament his colleagues are in. I think he is out here trying to help them. Most war gamers could see from February 2022 that ATACMS were needed to suppress Russian logistics, slow, and then reverse the Russian invasion. Or, like some Russian systems, is it known that ATACMS are not all that they are cracked up to be? I tend to think they are effective weapons, but that providing them would have been too provocative in the eyes of the Western powers that be. Same with American F-16s being replaced with F-35s being sent to Ukraine. It's OK if they are aged because most might get shot down. Another possibility is that war planners have decided that these systems cannot be revealed to China for the sake of Ukraine. They are a rabbit in the hat that will get figured out and countered, therefore their performance cannot be revealed.
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  604. The politicians are involved because very serious political and business interests are involved. Business looks at schools as profit centers, but of course part of the business plan is public relations messages that portray them as everybody's friend. The politicians are involved because business finances their campaigns, and because there are large blocks of voters who would like the public to fund their religious schools or some other option. There is a fundamental inequity wherever religious parents pay tuition for their religious school and also pay taxes for the public school their child does not go to. Because these parents are very invested in their child's education, and staff often has a supplemental ideological motivation to perform well for God, these religious schools often become very long lived and of good or very decent quality. They can vary in their policy as to the admission of troubled or special needs students. But the double payment by the religious taxpayer is a quietly underlying, major issue. It is less quiet with the charter schools. These generally have a business model of presenting publicly funded new facilities with a lower paid, more transient faculty (which the generally too busy parent will not notice), and a highly paid public relations program by the administrators. In my research, these are schools that are run like a business, and without too much more thought about it, that suits a lot of parents just fine. Sometimes without mandates to serve comparable numbers of students with conduct disorder and special needs, the charters can use non-admission and the occasional expulsion of troubled students to create a more favorable environment for everybody in the school, and that can seal the deal for a lot of parents and even staff. The public schools are left with the difficult students, and their poorer performance and even violence confirms the charter parent's choice. And really, how many parents want to send their child to a school known for fights and disrespectful students taking up much of the adult staff time while the acute conforming students attend in fear? Most public schools are not so terrible, because most kids are pretty cool and public special education teachers are highly qualified, but one can start to see the practical issues that school choice, charters, and religious schools bring to the issue of publicly funded education. And public funding is in the domain of the politician. As a taxpayer and a military veteran, I have a fundamental concern that whatever school an American child goes to, that they are becoming a good thinker with a good mind, able to sift through emotional arguments and self-interested deceits to develop a decent understanding of the truth of their situation, i.e., street smart in a world full of con men. And, sadly, I want them in good physical and mental condition if they are drafted into their nation's military. A school that does not do that has less reason to receive public support.
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  611. From Webster's Dictionary of 1828: 1. A rising against civil or political authority; the open and active opposition of a number of persons to the execution of a law in a city or state. It is equivalent to sedition, except that sedition expresses a less extensive rising of citizens. It differs from rebellion, for the latter expresses a revolt, or an attempt to overthrow the government, to establish a different one or to place the country under another jurisdiction. It differs from mutiny, as it respects the civil or political government; whereas a mutiny is an open opposition to law in the army or navy. insurrection is however used with such latitude as to comprehend either sedition or rebellion. Example: It is found that this city of old time hath made insurrection against kings, and that rebellion and sedition have been made therein. Ezra 4:19. It follows reasonably that the writers of the 14th Amendment defined "insurrection" in the manner above. Indeed, the last sentence indicates "insurrection" to be a slightly more general and encompassing term that includes sedition or rebellion as explained in the definition. When a piece of legislation does not define all its terms, legislative rules typically resort to a recognized dictionary definition. Or is the legislature required to establish an official state definition of every word to be used in its documents? Well yes, and that is why they adopt a recognized, publicly dictionary. It is legislative and legal negligence not to do so. And how are people to better understand each other without some reliance on a common language of well-defined words.
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  641. Too many wood poles supporting three phase feeders. Three phase feeders should be on precast concrete poles. Those wood poles also looked old. They look like creosote poles of too thin a class for hurricane weather. Class 2 wood poles hold up better. Florida utilities have been steadily strengthening their utility lines, and it has paid off. Restoration times have improved. Florida has a mix of private and publicly owned electric utilities, providing competition between those forms of ownership. Congress needs to fund a few conversions to municipal electric utilities in PR. That gets the pride up on both sides to see who can maintain better reliability and affordability. Neither a monopoly public nor private electric utility should serve the whole island. Sometimes a municipal electric utility makes some bad investment choices and deserves privatization. Sometimes converting from private to a municipal utility is needed when the private utility gouges the public. The risk to both forms creates the healthy competition. An electric utility system has reached good reliability when it can 99% recover from a hurricane in two weeks. There will be a set of customers that get restored within 24 hours of wind reaching safe speeds. The emphasis is on hospitals and water/wastewater treatment stations and communication centers. In 72 hours, a good system will be about 50% restored. From then on it is a function of how many line crews you have and replacement materials you have. It is essential to import contract line crews. That can take awhile in PR. An associated issue is pre-positioned, or not, line trucks and materials for those crews. The metric to look for is percentage of customers restored. As to colonialism, I have to ask what amount of population could PR support as an autonomous nation? Does an autonomous PR make a deal with China? I think one of the best things PR could do is support a strong college of engineering tailored to designing a robust infrastructure.
    4
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  660. While the Senator makes some good points, I think he mischaracterizes the destination of $60 billion for Ukraine. The great majority of that money goes to the US defense industry to manufacture new weaponry for US inventory, while inventory about to expire and scheduled for decommissioning is instead sent to Ukraine. It is aid to Ukraine, but it is not cash to Ukraine. It is material to Ukraine. He also mischaracterizes the motivation of his fellow Senators. Stopping Russia in Ukraine means US troops will not have to stop them in Moldova or Romania or the Baltics or Poland or Finland. Also, delaying munitions deliveries to Taiwan increases the likelihood of a Chinese invasion. Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had a potent air force with several hundred F-16s and the munitions and services that go with them? He would be hurting a lot more if that had been in place. Senator, we are trying to head off foreign leaders who have publicly declared their intentions. The Senator is also incomplete in his characterization of strategy. He made no mention of sanctions and the realignment of the European economy away from Russia. Sanctions do not themselves end a war and they take time to produce effects. But effects are being felt. The Russian economy is being reorganized into a top heavy defense economy in the style of the Soviet economy. History shows how that worked for them. The strategy is to weaken Russia, discredit Russia, raise Chinese doubt as to its own strategy, solidify NATO, and improve the security of free Europe, Taiwan, and the United States global economy. That strategy is working. It's plain to see. Russia, like its Soviet predecessor, has put itself into a self-defeating level of stress. The Senator lays out no strategy for bringing the conflict to a diplomatic resolution. Russia is pressing its attack. Russia is not stopping. Russia's terms for settlement involve Ukraine surrendering land Russia does not currently occupy, Ukraine staying out of NATO and the EU, and Ukraine demilitarizing. It just tees up Ukraine for future losses. If he wants a fast, diplomatic solution, I am afraid the only way to achieve that is a significant Ukrainian capitulation, OR, a form of Western escalation that convinces Putin that he is on a steady trend of losing Ukrainian territory. The latter is perhaps too dangerous for the Senator's temperament. The Senator also, in making his case on Russian oil and gas sales, ignores Ukraine's agency to significantly damage Russia's oil and gas infrastructure, a program it has already begun, perhaps as far back as Nordstream 2. The Senator sees expanding the "industrial base" as not helpful if we send all the munitions made to Ukraine. Who were we going to use the munitions on? And is it not an improvement in capacity if a larger industrial base can make more munitions? More munitions can bring the war to a more favorable end for Ukraine. The Senator is indirectly advocating capitulation. In essence the Senator dismisses the superior population numbers and industrial capacity of Ukraine's friends vs. Russia and its friends. He acknowledges Russia's team, but is dismissive of Ukraine's team. He projects the same fatalism that is used in Russian propaganda. Are you ready to absorb millions of Ukrainians, Senator? As for time for debate, the selection of specific materials to be shipped to Ukraine has been the subject of months of dialogue between the Ukrainian military and NATO defense ministers. I don't think the Senator's expertise exceeds theirs. To the extent that there are certain clauses affecting the execution of the funded programs and monitoring the integrity of those programs, proper objects of the Senate's attention, again I would think that long ago standard language and procedures were formulated and should be found in the bill. How long does it take to confirm that? Time is of the essence on the battlefield. Yes, Senator, people are dying out there. Could we expect you to be keeping up on this for their sake?
    3
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  663. What does NATO expansion into Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland result in? The sovereignty and territorial integrity of those nations. NATO has not invaded Russia from those nations. Kaliningrad could be seen as a great irritation to these nations, but it remains a part of Russia, though surrounded by NATO. Mearsheimer stops with NATO as the cause of the war in Ukraine. But NATO membership does not translate into an invasion of Russia. NATO prevents invasion by Russia. That's what appears to have been unacceptable to Putin. Putin might very well understand that the SMO was not going to take all of Ukraine, but it was certainly designed to consolidate the invasion of Crimea. The war map makes that quite clear. Another part of the mission of the 190,000 was to take Kyiv, displace European influence, and restore Russian influence over the Ukrainian government. Western Ukraine could come later. Another part of the mission was to take Odessa and link to Transnistria. All these missions are supported by the current deployment of Russian forces. It's a deflection to harp on Putin not intending to take all of Ukraine. Mearsheimer is right that there is a ruthless aspect to the American government. Lloyd Austin made it quite clear that the United States was ready to use Ukrainian fighting spirit to weaken Russia and thereby undermine Russia's ability to support a Chinese invasion of Taiwan down the line. And things have so far lined up closer to that trajectory. NATO countries are increasing defense budgets, Finland and Sweden are closer to NATO than ever, American weapons continue to be demonstrated as superior to Russian, and Russia has been reduced in the European oil and gas market to the benefit of American oil companies. Mearsheimer cuts off the causes too early and tilts them onto the West too easily. The war in Ukraine puts the Ukrainians between two large powers seeking to gain superior influence over Ukraine, consistent with Mearsheimer's view of power. I don't get why he tilts this against the West instead of seeing the conflict as a fight over a nation that was standing on its own (vainly) rather than joining one alliance or the other. This is a fight over which empire gains Ukraine as an ally. If one understands the sentiments of most Ukrainian people, one would see they prefer the West to Russia. What Putin should rightly fear is that Ukraine would become the kind of model that West Germany was to Eastern Europe, contributing to the demise of the Soviet Union by setting an example of the benefits of the Western system. Mearsheimer discounts Putin's nuclear arsenal deters an outright NATO military invasion.
    3
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  686. From Webster's Dictionary of 1828: 1. A rising against civil or political authority; the open and active opposition of a number of persons to the execution of a law in a city or state. It is equivalent to sedition, except that sedition expresses a less extensive rising of citizens. It differs from rebellion, for the latter expresses a revolt, or an attempt to overthrow the government, to establish a different one or to place the country under another jurisdiction. It differs from mutiny, as it respects the civil or political government; whereas a mutiny is an open opposition to law in the army or navy. insurrection is however used with such latitude as to comprehend either sedition or rebellion. Example: It is found that this city of old time hath made insurrection against kings, and that rebellion and sedition have been made therein. Ezra 4:19. It follows reasonably that the writers of the 14th Amendment defined "insurrection" in the manner above. Indeed, the last sentence indicates "insurrection" to be a slightly more general and encompassing term that includes sedition or rebellion as explained in the definition. When a piece of legislation does not define all its terms, legislative rules typically resort to a recognized dictionary definition. Or is the legislature required to establish an official state definition of every word to be used in its documents? Well yes, and that is why they adopt a recognized, publicly dictionary. It is legislative and legal negligence not to do so. And how are people to better understand each other without some reliance on a common language of well-defined words.
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  692.  @EvgeniyYakushev-m2u  I don't expect Russia to admit that escalating its military operations in Ukraine was a mistake, I expect excuses, but I think it was a fundamental mistake. Why? It shows obvious disrespect for national borders recognized in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and generally in the United Nations Charter. Finland and Sweden have seen this and are in the process of becoming NATO members. This will distribute more NATO forces along the western Russian border. Disrespect for national borders by Russia has also resulted in stated intentions of European nations to increase their defense budgets. Is Russia concerned about this? As far as how it may impact Russian leadership, no, it is not concerned. As far as Russian strategic planning, Russia is likely to decide it must increase its forces in order to pursue its goals. This will only escalate the new European arms race. While on the verge of increasing gas sales to Europe through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Russia was not able to persuade most European nations that is actions in Ukraine should not matter. Europe did not react in a manner favorable to Russia, unless it has always been Russia's intention to build Nord Stream 2 but not use it for some time. In my mind, this was clear misperception of foreign interests and mismanagement of Russia's interests, at least in the short term. If Russia rationalizes all these outcomes, that indicates that long term territorial expansion is indeed the Russian strategic plan and Russia is strongly committed to that plan. As it was before, errors in self-appraisal are likely to result in Russian self-defeat. With the world's largest nuclear arsenal, Russia is not going to be defeated by outside military forces. It can only self-defeat, and the continuity of the nature of its core elite in both Soviet and Russian eras increases the likelihood of another self defeat. There was an alternate route for Russia through trade and pending improved access through the Arctic Ocean due to climate change. Russia's mistake was not taking that path, but rather, taking a path of disrespecting borders.
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  729.  @wtmayhew  Protective relays that apply a trip voltage to the trip circuit of a circuit breaker have indicators or "flags" that change state to show the particular relay detected an abnormal condition and closed contacts on the trip circuit to open the breaker. It would help if we knew which relays were showing flags in tripped state. It is likely that TR1 was the point of failure. If the crew can see the fault was caused by a temporary condition like a snake or rat causing a short, then they are justified in attempting a reclose. If they do not see that temporary condition, then they should consider TR1 out of service. TR2 should have already been energized and the load should have automatically been transferred to it. The schematic provided shows that is possible to do. Electric utility systems do that successfully, and we are talking utilities having ship scale loads like 10 megawatts being successfully transferred to the paired transformer in the substation. Perhaps there is some maritime exception, but I doubt a single point of failure should get things so out of hand by design. There are two transformers there for just this type of scenario. My main source for these assertions is the Westinghouse Electric Corporation classic text "Applied Protective Relaying". I am confident that the NTSB has access to very good protective relaying expertise and utilization equipment expertise. There is also more information for them than has been shared with us, the relay flags being an example.
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  737. What Putin and his regime are successful at is maintaining their own security within Russia. I am often astounded at Russian commenters' perspective and fealty to their leadership. They are evidence of the effectiveness of the Russian regime's narrative within. For what Putin has done to date, the only face-saving measure he can be offered is the opportunity to maintain that internal security. Enough of his people can be sufficiently influenced for him to succeed at that. From this point on, he needs to see that excursions outside his borders are fraught with personal hazard. If he minds Russia internally, he can be rewarded with easing of sanctions. For now, part of what must be done to get him there is to reduce his military to the point any genuine paranoia of the West kicks in and he redeploys his remaining forces to defensive positions. We can hasten that day by a steady increase in NATO deployments to the eastern front, and even actions by the US and Japan in the Pacific regarding Russian takings of territory around the end of WWII. The other part is for opponents of gestures toward Venezuela to reconsider their argument. How is it less ethical for Europe to buy oil from Venezuela than to buy it from Russia? To the best of my knowledge, no Venezuelan troops are assisting the Russians in Ukraine. How would empowering Maduro with billions in revenue, compared to Putin, be much of a threat to Europe? It might irritate Venezuela's neighbors and the US, but that is something the US can manage. The US might consider how such a move would lessen Venezuelan and related immigration overflows to the US.
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  746. Yours is a thoughtful analysis. And his ASPD victory orientation helps him skip over the internal social issues (his jurisdiction) at the root of the Russian demographic problem. Families do not thrive in a culture of fear. Ukrainians understand this. How do I know? My wife and I live in a big house and our children have moved on. We started thinking about selling and moving into something smaller. My wife was also feeling more alone because our daughter had been killed in a car crash. So it might help if we moved to where life was busier with people to meet. Then the war started. We heard about Ukrainians fleeing their country. Our son had a Ukrainian piano teacher who had come to the US years ago. We asked her if anyone needed a place to stay. First she gruffly said, "No one is leaving!" Then later she heard of a Ukrainian mother and two sons fleeing to join the father who had left Ukraine for America a few years ago. Soon all four of them were in our cottage that was just big enough for them. We were sad about the war, but we were all happy to be together. Some of the best moments of our lives have been with this Ukranian family! What good parents they were. What smart, healthy, kind sons they had! Though we knew we were together because of war, some times I felt our gatherings for meals outside must be as good as heaven. They would agree with you that Russia wants the people of Ukraine under its control. They know the Russians. They know the despair and fear most Russians live in. They do not want that for their children. I know two Ukrainian fathers that are torn between their children and the Ukrainian army. It is horrible what Putin is doing to people, and that without remorse. He has that kind of brain. Stalin did the Holodomor. Putin and his colleagues are horrifying people to Ukrainians. Because of their close knowledge of Russian lives, they are vehemently opposed to Putin's effort. Thousands, obviously, would rather kill and die than live under those leaders. My new friends gave me two books and referred me to a movie: 1) Anne Applebaum's "Red Famine", the story of the Holodomor; 2) Svetlana Alexievich's "Second-Hand Time", a compilation of Russian citizen testimonies on their lives; and 3) "Leviathan" a movie depicting the corruption and viciousness of Russian internal security that maintains control of the population. If you read and watch these and think half of it might be true, you will understand why the Ukrainians fight like hell and thoughtful Russians leave their country. Christopher Hitchens, notable journalist now deceased, described the Russian government as "a psychopathic dictatorship". Think of the toxic people you know, and then imagine feeling outnumbered by them and controlled by them. It's no place for a family. Ergo Russia's demographic problem. The jerk offers a pittance of money to Russian women who give birth to ten children. He wants them for war. He cannot, by his very neurophysiology, "do anything but let that happen on his watch." What needs to occur to him in his mind and the FSB's minds, does not occur to them. Life for them is power and victory. Like Vince Lombardi, the coach the Super Bowl trophy is named after once said, "Winning isn't everything. Winning is the only thing." Putin can try to put lipstick on it, but he doesn't feel much else. We can speak our minds here, because brave people have stood up to toxic leadership, which always threatens us. What do we do with Putin? It looks like the frog in the pot strategy: nothing happens that's dramatic enough to provoke him into launching his nuclear arsenal. If we gave the Ukrainian Army everything they wanted, they would probably savage those Russians in the invasion in a few months. Putin has probably been warned that NATO will do that for the Ukrainians if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons. You are right. Putin is stuck. Things will change when he can't make the FSB payroll, and that's a long way off because making that payroll is his real priority.
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  911. It is not the case that every person, or even most persons, in Ukraine who speak Russian is loyal to Russia. I personally know several who want nothing to do with Russia. The Russian language is widespread in Ukraine and many grew up there with it as their primary language because of Soviet influence. And now my Ukrainian friends are learning a great deal of English, which certainly will not endear them to Russian leadership but will strengthen the bond between Ukraine and the West. In Kherson, Ukraine will need to innovate with multiple shore installations on both banks for not only boats but eventually larger barges for bulk supply of forces on the left bank. Once these forces push the more common and prolific types of Russian artillery out of range of the selected portions of the river, then pontoon bridges and even artificial islands can be used to form a web of repairable crossings to increase the flow heavy equipment southward. No doubt the system will be attacked, but like the electric utility system, it is possible to offset losses with timely repairs. The long distance to Kherson is an advantage for Ukraine, increasing the difficulty of Russian eastern and southern forces reinforcing each other. Russia may very well decide it needs to cede more of Kherson oblast to maintain control of its land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine needs to be developing a potent, permanent riverine engineering capability to maintain sovereignty. They might as well get started on it now. It will force Russia to increase its logistical effort over a longer distance and thwart much of its investment in the defense of Zaporizhya. One wonders if decommissioned American littoral combat ships would be of any use to Ukraine.
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  1005. I live in Florida. I have lived in Illinois and California as well. Each has its pros and cons. Florida has beautiful weather most of the year no matter who is governor. That attracts prosperous retirees from all over the country, and that sector of the economy may only be rivaled by states such as Arizona, or, yup, California. Florida does have places of scenic beauty, but Yosemite Park in California is something I wish every American could visit. The Illinois I knew had the best schools of the three states. Chicago is a world class city with a lifetime's worth of things to see and do. The farmland is among America's best. The people and commerce I knew were strong and sophisticated. State government is probably the most corrupt of the three, but I was very close to local government, and it was as accountable as any I see in the other two states. I don't get this claim of freedom about COVID countermeasures. People in my church died. Business associates died. There are (and were) a lot of older and vulnerable people here who really had to isolate themselves from the "freedom loving". Is "love your neighbor as yourself" still a value here? Obviously not for a lot of people. Florida's performance on protecting its people from COVID was average. Nobody likes to be told what to do most of the time, but COVID was, and to an extent remains, a subject where one should not just think of themselves, but of the very survival of those around them. That's a part of being pro-life. I am an American, and a veteran, and I am not into too much badmouthing of other States upon which we have built a great nation. Competition and constructive criticism between States can be healthy and productive, but our safety and prosperity rely upon a union of States.
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  1057. Russian "innocence" is a recurring theme. I don't buy it. Start with Russia's involvement with Venezuela. Look at Venezuela's immense oil resources. Look at its history of oil production. As Russian influence in Venezuela increased, Venezuelan oil production leveled off at about 1/3 of prior production. That's enough to sustain the regime there without being a serious threat to oil prices and Russian revenue. Thousands of Venezuelans have left the country, many for the United States. Looks to me like Russia did not want Venezuela putting downward pressure on oil prices. Now note that Exxon, Chevron, and Shell, with superior oil and gas exploration and extraction technologies (see Guyana) had explored and determined Ukraine (even in old fields) had potential to produce more oil and gas for the European market. That is what set the stage for this war. Russia was going to face more competition in the oil and gas market and thus loss of revenue. Russia had a peaceful path and a war path ahead of it. Russia could have used its wealth to focus on improving its own petroleum engineering capabilities so it could outperform the West. However, that is not an easy thing to do, because the Western system creates conditions for the continuous improvement of engineering capabilities, while the Russian way of life puts a bit of a damper on freedom and individuality. Russia does do engineering at a high level in many areas, but it is usually spying on the West for the next steps, rather than organically making new discoveries. I'm not saying it never happens, but it is a tendency. Russia chose the war path, not the West. Was there competition for influence in Ukraine from the West? Most definitely. The challenge is to meet that competition with excellence in engineering, not war. I think less of Russia because of its use of pretext and military force. I see the Russian people as people, albeit with a distinctive character developed by their particular history. Oil is a curse, like it happens in John Steinbeck's "The Pearl".
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  1076.  @СКИван-р8е  I am an American. I have hosted two different young Ukrainian families who fled their homes just before the Russian invasion in February 2022. I thought they would be a total psychological mess. Instead I came home from work and here out on my patio they had prepared a wonderful dinner for me and my wife. My old wife and I thought we would be taking care of them after their difficult journey. They were taking care of us instead. I was humbled. They were two couples, one couple with two boys and the other couple with one boy. They were intelligent, working, empathic people. My wife is a school teacher, and she took the boys to be tested for their intelligence. All of them scored high, and so high it is best not to them how high or they would get a big head about themselves. Their parents kept them humble. As a birthday gift, they gave me two books: "Secondhand Time" by Svetlana Alexievich, Pulitzer Prize winner, and "Red Famine" by Anne Applebaum. I read them and understand why Ukraine wants to take a different course than Russia. One of the fathers told me simply, "We do not want Russian mind control". No one will ever convince me that Ukrainians as a whole are Nazis. The quiet deal in this pleasant town in Russia, is to leave politics to Moscow, and just not talk about difficult things too much. Stay quiet, enjoy the local peace. Russia can thank the American man for bringing his American military pension and social security payments to Russia. Amazing that we don't cut that off, isn't it?
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  1085.  @vladrazym9955  You miss my point. A damaged electrical system can be repaired, and repaired in very innovative ways in a war when efficiency is not the primary consideration. Lighting is a simple indication that damage has been repaired. Infrared can also be used to discern that damage has been repaired. But like lights being shut off intentionally, false infrared signatures can mislead interpretation of infrared imagery. Resolution of course plays a role, but it is in Ukraine's interest to mask not only the repair of its fixed or known electrical infrastructure, but to mask its increasingly mobile distributed electric generation. GPS coordinates that might have been valid a week ago may need to be updated because a mobile prime power generating unit has been relocated to another connection point. Distributed generation is not the normal form of efficient power generation, but it is very suited to a war zone. With time and a steady influx of mobile units and an increasing number of distribution system connection points, the generating system becomes more like a missile on a truck, i.e., not so easy to find. There also becomes too many targets to hit, especially when 50% or more of incoming missiles are intercepted in a manner that the target, even if located correctly, survives. And Russia does well not to strike power plants outside of Ukraine that are connected to the Ukrainian grid. These connections need not always be high voltage transmission in a war, as high voltage transmission stations are fewer in number and an obvious target. While less efficient, again, more numerous sub-transmission and even distribution substations can be used or modified to transmit useful amounts of power. And so in the futile effort to take down the Ukrainian electric system, Russia fails to use some of its best weaponry on military targets.
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  1201. Jesus' teaching on turning the other cheek, giving your cloak as well, and walking the extra mile is more nuanced than is being presented here. First, turning the other cheek assumes an affront that the victim is going to survive. It's about conflict on a personal level. Elsewhere Jesus' speaks of armies reaching a settlement or two swords being "enough". There was no order to sell or discard the swords. Turning the other cheek does one of two things to the offender, if the offender has a conscience, then the offender is likely to de-escalate and repent. If the offender does not have a conscience, then the victim is showing a capacity for self-control to someone who lacked it. The offender may not understand, but witnesses will. The community of those without conscience will label the victim as weak. The community of conscience will see strength. Perhaps the best Jesus short story on the model human being is what we call the story of the Good Samaritan. This is a person of courage and situational awareness. This is a person of compassion for genuine need. This is a person with the strength to lift a human body onto a donkey. This is a person good enough at animal husbandry that his donkey will stand there and accept such an additional load. This is a person who has built a career that has put in a position to be physically and financially helpful. The Good Samaritan did not have to give away everything he had because he wasn't addicted to what he had. He was ready to spend money and risk his assets to help a neighbor in need. He delegated to and paid someone in a better position to render care. He promised to check back. His manner impressed confidence in the innkeeper and the delegation was accepted. I'm probably missing things, and that's my point. Jesus' teaching merits re-reading and contemplation in the different chapters in our life. I don't know that this makes one a liberal or a conservative. I think it might make one a disciple.
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  1202. I don't think genocide is the right term. I think Israel more accurately has two missions: 1) regime change of Hamas; 2) another installment of terrorizing the Palestinian people. The problem with telling Jews they are committing genocide is that Jews think of 6 million Jews dying in the Holocaust and then just not seeing themselves doing that to Gaza on that scale. Gaza never posts how many Hamas fighters are among the dead. And Americans can see the difference in casualties in the same way. Instead, all sides can look at what is happening as a sort of 9/11, a terrorist incident (retaliatory in itself if you ask Al Qaeda) followed by a long-term American attempt at retaliation and regime change. The US kicked the Taliban out of Afghanistan, for 20 years, sort of. Hamas conducts a terror campaign on 10/7/23 (retaliatory if you ask them). Israel is trying to kick Hamas out of Gaza. Israel also believes that terrorizing the population of Gaza will implant a future hesitancy on their part to avoid another 10/7 and to facilitate further annexations of land. Both Gazans and Israelis have people who have concentrated power into a small group and may not represent the broader populations. Those small but powerful groups are primarily responsible for the current violence. I am not ashamed to be an American because I see our State Department talking with any party that will talk to bring about a cease fire. Israel has US support. Gaza has Hezbollah support, a measure of Arab and Islamic support, Iranian support, and probably a whiff of Russian and Chinese support to put stress on the US (retaliatory if you ask them). I don't think it evenhanded to simply frame Gaza and Hamas as some little underdog. This is a multi-national conflict, and American leadership is looking at the conflict in a more comprehensive way than either Israeli or Hamas public relations presents it.
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  1247. @ My reply was short and intended for one of the other respondents, or there is some kind of comment mixup on my part or YT's. However, read your own words, "You know nothing about reality". My, what an extreme statement. What does that say about you and your credibility with the community you are trying influence? Yes, let's use the information that is right in front of us, that is, your choice of words and what you are trying to do. "The clown" shows your capacity for contempt of other lives. You are more logically correct to use the word "perhaps", because you really don't know what I think. You ascribe all fault to Zelensky, and speak of no error on the part of Putin. You speak of Ukrainian casualties, but not Russian. Is that a form of indifference to Russian lives, or the particular Russian lives that are being lost? I "shouldn't speak out". "Iron sharpens iron", Lassel. If you are trying to persuade people to accept that Russia has acted defensively, you have not persuaded me. You are right to say Ukrainian soldiers have died. Russia is willing to kill for Ukrainian land and for what that land does for them, that is, protect itself, not from NATO, but from a nuclear armed country with over three times Russia's population, China. Simply on the basis of the size of its population, Russia shows a confidence that it will prevail in its war against Ukraine. That mindset, applied to China, could rationally generate fear of China. And I suspect that fear is behind hyperbolic proclamations of "unlimited friendship." There was a Sino-Soviet war. Russia has conquered previously Chinese lands. I am inclined to think the Russian paradigm sees how that could be a problem in the future. Russia's response might be to make amends on that issue because so much of that border is undeveloped on the Russian side. (If you are in Sweden, then you can use Google Earth to go over the Russian/Chinese border and compare development on both sides for yourself.) But I suppose such an action would result in China becoming even more powerful and more of a threat to Russia. So Russia is stuck. NATO acted on Article 5 once, not to repel a Russian invasion of Europe, but on the occasion of 9/11. NATO has acted like a defensive alliance, or a punisher of "terrorists" for decades. The Soviet Union did not succumb to NATO. Soviet patrimonialism, through corruption and incompetence, self-defeated. It appears to be on a similar course today, not so much with respect to Ukraine, but through its nostalgia and internal trends of governance. "The thief comes to rob and kill" " said Jesus. Plain as day, that is what Russia is doing to Ukraine, and it is wrong.
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  1274. I think Putin has said that the breakup of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical "catastrophe" of the 20th Century. The US has used the word "catastrophic" I think quite intentionally to describe its planned response to any Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. First of all I don't think Russia gains much if they only use one. The front is long and the UAF are distributed throughout the country. Secondly, Russia's occupation of Ukraine relies upon fixed targets: roads, railroads, and bridges. The US does not have to counter with nuclear weapons. It can accelerate Russia's withdrawal through conventional strategic bombing. Of course, this may suit Russia's attainment of its backup objective, what Mearsheimer calls the "wrecking of Ukraine". But Germany, Japan, and South Korea in business relationships with the West (and pre-war Russia) are evidence that restored nations are actually able to become quite prosperous. Ukraine will not remain "wrecked". The United States also knows that not responding to Russian use of nuclear weapons would be an unwise signal to China that the US will capitulate. Until the US has its own domestic source of advanced semi-conductor chips, it cannot afford to send such a signal. The Chinese economy has some serious issues, especially young adult unemployment. Nothing like giving them a job fighting a war. Putin's use of the cornered rat is fear mongering. If he has any sense of history, he must admit that the United States is willing to act militarily. It is the only nation that has used nuclear weapons in war. That tells him the American psyche can do that, especially since he goes all the way back to the Great Patriotic War for his own purposes.
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  1315.  @andyboxish4436  But you make no logical argument to support your thesis. Patrick Zhang starts out by saying he is "not sure". Good for him in a way. For Patrick, the subject is "NATO expansion". I take Patrick as making a proposal: Americans, put yourself in Putin's shoes by imagining an unlikely scenario, Canada and or Mexico makes a defensive alliance with China. Why would they do that unless they perceived a military threat from the United States if they were to shift their trade away from the United States and toward China? Would the United States act just like Russia in such a situation? I think that would depend on the character of the Canadian and Mexican militaries. If they were obviously configured for defense, then there is hope that diplomacy can keep the situation manageable until the underlying factors that led to the trade shift can be addressed. Why create long-term enemies by attacking their defensive forces? But we don't have to imagine recent American behavior on this subject. Cuba, an autocratic regime, lies just 90 miles off the coast of Florida. American policy has been to try to improve the relationship. Cubans keep voting with their feet (or rafts) for the American way of life. Would they do that if we were shelling their cities and killing their families? It's going to take a long time for Cuba and America to get along better, but there is no hot war between the two. So maybe Putin ought to look at America's policy Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and ponder how that might be a better course of action toward Ukraine. The more potent scenario for Mr. Zhang to bring up perhaps is Iraq. Like Putin, Bush whipped up the American public with fears of Iraqi WMD and how Iraq was on a path to take full control of Mideast oil. And Iraq remains an utter mess, worse than under Saddam by some accounts, and the US is significantly discredited for having done what it did. However, that has not stopped foreign interest, including Mideastern interest, in selling products and services in the US market. Mr. Zhang seems to want Americans to look the other way and let Putin have his way with Ukraine and any other part of NATO until he feels better about his situation. I am not sure that Putin would ever feel satisfied with anything other than victory after victory. Sharing YOUR insights is an interesting concept? Watching a movie is in interesting concept? I am asking you to look at art and think. A few, and myself, on this comment section are looking for rational arguments from the autocratic side. Not seeing them yet.
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  1390.  @edvsilas8281  I cannot imagine Russia not interfering in the affairs of its neighbors. It is its historically proven nature to do just that. The US and UK recognized Russian interest in Ukraine not having nuclear weapons, and that was accomplished. It's a very significant accomplishment in view of North Korean and Iranian insistence on pursuing nuclear capability. And yet, the parties understood the imbalance of power between Ukraine and Russia. And that imbalance makes Ukrainian neutrality impractical, given Russian conduct. Either Ukraine defers to Russian interests or European/US interests to deal with this imbalance. Any neutrality would be at the will of Russia. As I mentioned, and due in large measure to Russian interference in Turkey and Hungary, it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will be admitted to NATO. The Budapest Memorandum is relevant in the current situation. Russia was notified and warned in that document that US and UK support of Ukraine was very possible if Russia disrespected the Ukrainian border. From an imperial and strategic standpoint, it does make sense that Russia would offer to negotiate after seizing 20 percent of Ukraine's territory and considered itself able to take more territory at that time. While Canada and the US have perhaps the most peaceful border in the world, the US Mexico border is much more difficult. Yet Mexican jurisdiction has not been territorially adjusted since the Gadsden Purchase (Purchase mind you) ratified in 1854. And any current hints of Ukraine or other border states being equipped with land based nuclear weapons are likely being made in response to Russian hints at the use of nuclear weapons. The US nor UK does not need nuclear weapons in any of these states on the border of Russia when it already has various platforms for delivering nuclear weapons for deterrence or warfighting. Good for you asking me to put my feet in Russian strategic shoes. If only Russia would put its feet in the shoes of its neighbors and recognize their legitimate security concerns living next to a nuclear power in the present act of invading a neighbor.
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  1422. I thought part of the idea of an officer on site was fast intervention. Of course, thousands of school resource officers are never going to have to intervene in a shooting. So inevitably they get used to doing all sorts of things and going home every night. While Senator Cruz has received some derision for his comment about supervised single points of entry to a school and locked emergency exit doors, I think that idea is implemented in some schools. My wife is a teacher, and I have noted rules about doors being locked, and "code red" drills. What a difference stout, locked cockpit doors might have made on 9/11. So in that resource officers little cube of an office, not only should there be camera monitors, but a display of door status lights that truly indicate the locked or unlocked status of doors. The more time a shooter is on the outside of a building, the more exposed he is and the more time occupants have to get behind other locked doors and start other procedures. There are other features of a building's systems that could be added to that can thwart a shooter. It's best not to publicize them, but system vendors know what can be done. As far as all the law enforcement on the outside of the school, for all the tools they had, they did not seem to know exactly where the shooter was. That's a problem that can be fixed by systems in the building that cops can access. One would tend to think that every Police Department has at least one officer with some SWAT training who could become the incident commander and coordinate an assault on the shooter. Dogs and preferably robots can make the first contact and do it quickly. Robots could carry flash/bangs. Robots could be pre-positioned on site. Police training seems to focus on officer safety.
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  1494. When I was in the USAF, we implemented a more intense checklist for each aircraft in phase inspection, a periodic (three months, typically) mandatory removal of each aircraft to the hangar to put it through the checklist. The result of this was that in-flight failures of our system were notably reduced. The checklist did put pressure on the supply system, because we were detecting early signs of failure sooner and thus changing out components more often. We increased the number of parts being ordered in advanced to they were ready as soon as the aircraft entered the hangar. When flight crews were asked about the reliability of our system, they reported it as high, with other system failures more frequently getting their attention. We had aircraft get to the next phase inspection with no failures in our system in between those inspections. Granted, a failure in our system would not cause the aircraft to crash, but its mission would be a failure, jeopardizing another crew. I was surprised to hear this video say that there were some components of the Osprey that cannot be inspected in some fashion in order to prevent catastrophic failure. To me, those components then need to have an operating hour limit to provide a margin of safety. They also need to have some form of testing prior to first installation, so there can be some confidence in the life of the component. With various forms of Non-Destructive Inspection and manufacturing quality control available, I find the idea of some components just being essentially wild cards hard to accept. The design of the aircraft obviously succeeds for thousands of flight hours. I think this is a maintenance issue. We don't want crews seeing all these alarms so often. Alarms should be rare and generate the appropriate fear.
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  1531.  @marioceva7163  No. I think Russia (Putin) felt very disrespected when Ukraine invited Exxon and Shell to explore for oil and gas in Ukraine instead of Gazprom being invited. People in eastern Ukraine probably just wanted to live their lives in peace. But the development of competitive gas fields in Ukraine could not be tolerated by Gazprom (and its CEO Putin) because that would reduce revenue to Russia from Europe. Note that under Russian influence for years, Venezuela has been limited to 1/3 of its previous oil and gas output. Maduro did recently, given record market prices, open up to talks with the West about that. I'm sure Russia came back with an offer he could not refuse, like the 15 billion Russian aid offer made to Ukraine around 2014. Maduro obviously has the Venezuelan people still in country under a tight leash, with Cuban and Russian assistance of course. Russia has a full playbook based on its historical colonial experience for situations like this. Agents move in to start a separatist movement. (Really, the natives just wanted to live their lives, but oil and gas are a curse.) Next, "little green men" appear and begin guerilla operations in support of the separatist movement. Locals come under the Russian "educational" system. All casualties become the fault of the Ukrainian Nazis of course, as they are now. Russia is totally innocent. /s. But logistics require this activity hug the Russian border, and the Ukrainian army contains the Russian effort until the findings of the oil and gas exploration become more clear. Also, Donald Trump, useful idiot of Russian finance, is at this time, believe me, President of the United States, (totally evidence of the gullibility of a vast swath of the American electorate) and it makes sense to keep him in that office, leverage Hunter Biden's coincidental activities in Ukraine, and see if he can use his art of the deal to advance Russian interests. But Trump loses the 2020 election! Unbelievable. So many people acted on that unbelief and America looks like a mess and Biden just too old for the job. NATO pulls out of Afghanistan. Weakness. Time to get serious about Ukrainian oil and gas. Time to make Exxon and Shell nervous. The exercises start, but everyone is assured that no invasion is planned. But it turns out the US National Reconnaissance Office has actually developed a rather detailed understanding of Russian military exercises as seen from space, and this one starts to get "different". And Mr. Xi, the best friend Russia ever had, would like to conduct his Olympics in peace, so more time in the field boys. That hurt. But, checklist complete, on with the invasion. And where is the Russian Army today? Over the gas fields. It has nothing to do with the people, sir, and everything to do with money.
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  1539. Thanks Jake for the logical argument for postponing ATACMS. I still think there have been and will be occasions where their presence and/or use could deter or counter Russian attacks. They would need to be a part of a strike package that would burden Russian AD, improving the likelihood of success while also improving the survivability of any piloted aircraft in the strike package. While Ukrainian AD and heightened electric utility repair capability can do a lot this winter, there may be something to ATACMS presence and use that could improve winter conditions for the Ukrainians. ATACMS could also pose a threat to MIG-31 bases. Currently MIG-31s and their very long-range air-to-air missiles provide a very serious CAP, limiting UAF operations. In the months ahead this CAP could begin to enable the re-emergence of Russian air power as Ukraine draws nearer to Russian borders. MIG-31s are also very fast, presenting a challenge for UAF AD. Like the ME-262s of WWII, their vulnerability is when they are low on fuel and on RTB or are in the open at their base. Not only the aircraft but their supporting base infrastructure would be more exposed to ATACMS as part of a strike package of UAVs, decoys, ECM, and HARMs. I'm not sure how the MIG-31 threat can be dealt with without threatening MIG-31 bases long range. F-16s do not match the air-to-air missile range of the MIG-31. It really takes F-22s, maybe F35s, to sneak up on a MIG-31. The downside for the MIG-31 is that it is not stealthy and it cannot turn hard to evade a missile. Ukraine can usually know where they are. Checkout Ward Carroll's latest piece with Justin Bronk.
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  1568. Yeah, Israeli soldiers see all these young Gazan men standing, walking, looking fed, vigorously digging in rubble, carrying the fallen, and they figure Hamas is very much still in charge because the men of military age are getting fed while the moms and kids get the leftovers. Really DN and any press in Gaza needs to confine video to the vacant stares of gaunt people lying on the ground with flies on their faces. The sights don't line up with the words all the time. It just doesn't look like the brink when it comes to the actual physical capability of the people. Surely their buildings and urban scenes are dystopian, but these Gazans have not put down their arms. Be it with weapons or public relations, they are still very much at war with Israel, and DN needs to consider how it keeps giving Palestinians the idea that they should keep fighting and looking at martyrdom in this manner as an honorable death and shame on everybody else. Do they hold out because they think their narrative is going to work? The women and children are thumbs up on that campaign, a campaign that says nothing of Hamas fighters being killed, just the women and children they put at risk? Are you stoking this fight DN? There are three serious issues of justice that need to be addressed in this conflict: religious tolerance, wrongful death, and property theft. Until those issues get resolved to a lower level of occurrence, this fight just goes on and on, drawing the media like moths. Be a part of the solution DN. Start talking Islamic tolerance of other faiths and atheism.
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  1591.  @rackett8655  A sound logical argument can be an act of altruism or a paid performance. It's value is in its soundness. My position is that Medea really doesn't offer anything other than a desirable and obvious general course of action. She really is not contributing to a productive conversation that might result in a novel approach to get to the end of the war. I've negotiated with people, not on an international level, but on a business level. I don't need someone to just tell me that I should talk with someone to make a deal. I am ready to talk the tactics to get to a deal. She is not. When Russia brandishes its nuclear arsenal in pursuit of its goals, it's throwing a hail Mary for capitulation. It's a form of negotiation. It includes an evaluation that the West is intrinsically timid about war and there are gains to be had while NATO discusses the matter. Medea stays away from suggesting that there is probably a series of military moves required to get Russia to compromise in some fashion. That is the stage of the conflict at this time. The only thing Russia wants to talk about at this point is Ukraine making concessions for further Russian gains. Every item on the table needs to show a Russian victory, or they are just going to keep attacking. The West is taking a slow boil approach. This leaves Russia optimistic enough to not use tactical nuclear weapons to counter a major reversal. For its part, Russia has given the West optimism by so far not using tactical nuclear weapons after three major reversals. Neither side is ready for a cease fire. Ukraine's interest is to see if it can improve its situation in the field. Medea seems to imply by the timing of her appearances that Ukrainian advances or new signs of Western support are an occasion to turn up the cease fire rhetoric. This isn't anything new in war. It is really hard to see this war ending before the parties have further tested their war strategies and tactics. And Putin's interest in Ukraine probably doesn't end until he is no longer competent to lead. Medea could really help if she truly had some innovative approach to the situation, but she doesn't, and that is what is discrediting her.
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  1660. What guarantees has Russia ever abided by? Odd that they should ask for them with any expectation of them being maintained. Russia's negotiation position is so extreme in its impositions upon Ukraine that it would not surprise me at all that Ukraine joins NATO because that is about the only thing it CAN do to secure its future. But Russia is more likely to maintain a state of war with Ukraine in order to prevent Ukraine meeting the NATO condition that its borders be reasonably settled. About the only thing that might bring about an armistice would be a version of Korea, that is, Western forces enter Ukraine and Russia agrees to settle because they start getting pushed out of Ukraine. That would be tense, but otherwise Ukraine really does face the prospect of a perpetual armed conflict. And would Russia be providing for the reconstruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam so Crimea can receive water again? Probably not. They will say again that the Ukrainians destroyed it and reconstruction by Ukraine is another Russian negotiation demand. This goes on and on. Russia will continue its social engineering project of manning its army with undesirables and letting the Ukrainians capture or dispose of them. Above you describe a reasonably sophisticated Russian military operation that for some reason they just keep holding off on. Maybe they want to catch more Ukrainian troops without leveling Kherson itself. European demographics may be buttressed by the emigration of quietly dissident Russians who find a way out of a nation that would rather not have them. I don't know that Russia has enough misfits to avoid having to start sending more privileged or otherwise productive men into battle. That could be the demographic turning point for Putin. It's interesting to note that in 1700 the population of Russia was over 13 million while the United States did not exist. Today the population of Russia is approximately 145 million while the population of the United States exceeds 330 million. The combined population of NATO countries, less that of the US, is over 500 million. Russia likes to think its 145 million are just heavier than the west in some fashion, and Russian leadership is obviously more willing to sacrifice its population. To me, that goes a long way in explaining Russia's significant disadvantage in human resources, and it doesn't look to be improving much anytime soon.
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  1693. General Hodges and Jake, this was outstanding. Thank you. I wrote my Congressman, Brian Mast to voice my support for Ukraine. Here's what he wrote back: Dear Mr. Trewyn, Thank you for contacting me regarding foreign aid being sent to Ukraine. Your thoughts are important to me as I work to effectively represent you in Congress. As a 12-year Army veteran, I have seen firsthand the global challenges and threats we are facing in the 21st century. I have also seen how the United States’ retreat from a leadership role in the international community has set the world on a dangerous course that threatens our national security and the security of our allies. As the greatest force for human dignity in the world, the United States must stand up for oppressed people. However, there needs to be a serious debate about the United States’ involvement in Ukraine, and that conversation can’t take priority over helping Americans. I want to see a Ukrainian victory against Vladmir Putin, but my first obligation is to you - the taxpayers of Florida’s 21st District. I believe there needs to be a clear and transparent accounting of how we are spending the tax dollars and what we are getting for our money. As such, until the Biden administration provides a clear, strategic, and objective plan for our involvement in Ukraine I will not support sending hard-earned taxpayer dollars for their war efforts. That’s why, on Thursday, September 28, 2023, I voted against the Ukraine Security Assistance and Oversight Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (H.R. 5692). I don’t believe in throwing money at a problem. I believe in being thoughtful and spending where it counts. I will continue urging strong support from our allies and the development of a comprehensive national security strategy that is founded on the idea that the world is safest when America is strongest. Thank you again for taking the time to contact me. If you’d like to receive updates about this issue and other news that’s important to our community, please sign up here. To follow along with my work on your behalf, please join me on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact me again. As always it is an honor to represent you in the United States Congress. Sincerely, Brian Mast Member of Congress I am tempted to write back and say that if we are "the greatest force for human dignity in the world", then we should be able to multi-task, especially with a federal work force of almost 3 million. There's also a line from the song "We Are The World": "There's a choice we're making, we're saving our own lives." My first reaction to his BUT was "I am not being shelled by Russian artillery! I am fine, with a good job and a good wife and a good kid and I think we should help Ukraine NOW!" Anyway, this is what some of the thinking is in Congress. Be proud of your efforts, gentlemen. Let us persist.
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  1719.  @alphaclam  Not at all. But what is being held out here is that tax cuts CAUSE increases in tax revenue. I think there is more to it, and that tax cuts' effects are indirect and can be negative. Increased revenue is likely when the government increases borrowing. Government borrowing, as Donald Trump understood very well and Biden has copied, stimulates the economy. A great deal of this borrowed money is distributed through payrolls which deduct FICA and Medicare taxes and federal withholding for taxes. How do I know this? I am an employer and I pay these taxes. So a portion of the money the government borrows comes back to the government through payroll taxes. State revenues go up because some of this borrowed money pays state sales taxes on purchases. It follows that tax revenues and economic activity might very well go down if the federal budget went from running deficits to being balanced. Republicans would prefer that happens when Democrats are in the Oval Office. The Trump administration was not shy about borrowing money. They knew it would give them economic bragging rights. The federal budget does not need to be balanced. It does need to preserve the value of US credit. That is the issue. The lending market is less confident in US credit because it has seen, under Biden and Trump, that the national debt has gone up too fast. The challenge is to bridle that debt growth and improve US credit without a recession. That's difficult. This is why I do not agree that there is direct causation between tax cuts and increases in tax revenues.
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  1746. I hope that soon the USNS Comfort hospital ship will be traveling to a point off the coast of Gaza in coordination with the US Army floating pier. I hope rented cruise ships will join the Comfort to offer respite and a measure of safety to orphans and parents with children. Apparently, Egypt and Jordan and Syria and Lebanon are in no position to receive Gazan refugees. There is concern that a Gazan who leaves the territory would not be allowed back into Gaza. That right of return should be something the US insists that Israel respect. For now, it would help to get the most vulnerable people in Gaza offshore, fed, sheltered, bathed, clothed, rested, treated for health conditions, kids back in classrooms on the ship and parents with a paid job on the ship. The Gazan narrative leaves out things. The great majority of Gazans are going to survive this war, and there needs to be a good plan for the aftermath. Does Gaza offer anything to Israel regarding post-war security? Are Gazans organizing into new jurisdictions that are not totally controlled by Hamas? Notice in video after video that, despite mention of famine, people are walking at normal speed and do not appear gaunt. Are we seeing black markets at work with aid goods brought under control by merchants and ordinary Gazans having to find something to trade for food? Hopefully most of the food aid is well distributed at no cost to those in need, but we don't get much information about this. Those World Food Kitchen workers were important observers of the food distribution and the general health of those they come in contact with. I don't think a call for a cease-fire by itself gets a cease-fire. Both sides need to see that a better way forward is being put together. Men like this doctor could help by pledging to support a new government in Gaza. Not many seem to have anything to say about that. Is any new political party emerging in Gaza as a result of this war? Israel is certainly losing some of the moral authority it has classically derived from the Holocaust. On the other hand, it is making a statement to Hezbollah and Iran about what awaits if they escalate the conflict. US military aid undergirds that message. The loss of life in Gaza is tragic, and I want it to stop. But there is a wider and deeper strategic tension all around Israel that could escalate into even greater numbers of casualties. It is bad, but it really could be worse. And worse needs to be deterred. Neurotypical people are easily dismayed by news of more F-16s and 2000lb bombs being sent to Israel. For non-Israeli psychopathic leaders addicted to victory, that news raises the risk that they would lose in an escalated conflict. And loss is not something they process well (See Donald Trump). It's all senseless to the neurotypical, but they are generally not the ones starting and conducting wars. To my knowledge, so far, Israel has not acted like Putin and brandished its nuclear weapons. But the tension is that bad in some minds.
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  1750.  @starchild692  I have watched several videos that recount historical invasions of Russia. The last serious one was by Germany. That was before nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons fundamentally change Russia's geopolitical situation. That is why they maintain 6500 warheads, more than any other single nation. Russia would have every right to use nuclear weapons to repel an invasion of its territory. It is reasonable to conclude that no one would invade Russia today. Would they strike Russian military targets if Russia was invading them? Yes, they recently have in Belgorod. Russian behavior in the nuclear age is not based on being invaded. I see that as fake paranoia. Russian behavior in the nuclear age has been similar to that of the United States, that is, imperial. Through invasion and annexation, Russia seeks to improve its general economic situation and the wealth of its elite. I give no credence to Russian security concerns for its own territory, because they completely discount the deterrent value of their nuclear arsenal. It is a false argument. US borders with Mexico and Canada are now reasonably settled matters, with no material changes to them in many decades. The US and Canadian border is one of the most peaceful in the world, and has every prospect of remaining so. It is similar in length to the border Russia shares with its western neighbors. While having superior population numbers and military forces, the US has not made any effort to annex any portion of Canada. How do we do that? A measure of respect, even love of neighbor. Do not project a Russian perspective on the US and its relations with its neighbors. They are clearly different than Russia's relations with its neighbors. Do we influence them? Yes. Do we dominate them? No, e.g. Cuba.
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  1772.  @lg2058  Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. (Really? Maybe? Maybe not?) That is expensive. European nations would rather not spend 2% of their GDP on defense. A review of their defense budgets, and Trump's and Obama's complaints bear witness to that. This is to say that NATO for quite some time was really trying to minimize its own defense costs in favor of social welfare. They were not ambitiously increasing their military arsenals and manpower. Quite the opposite. Russia had cause to not fear NATO too much, and even had cause to consider NATO weak and unable to stop Russia's incremental advances on its borders. Russia is going to think the way Russia is going to think. Likewise for the Europeans. Russia was making money selling to Europe. What Russia saw was not so much NATO, but that Russia's control over Ukraine's market share of European trade was being undermined, due to an emerging Ukrainian interest in Western assistance and investment. And Western investors are always looking for new opportunities. The job of Yanukovich, like Maduro, was to regulate competition against Russian export revenue, the spice of the Russian regime, by which its various agents are maintained. Ukraine's sin was its challenge to Russian exports, and thus the Russian regime. "NATO" is veneer, pretext. Money and power and a fancy with luxury are often at the core of human ambition. And yet the palace in Sochi has been demolished! Is this some sort of purification? A return to the asceticism war and victory require? And now, with NATO defense budgets enlarged, and Western military-industrial capacity being increased, Russia's grave security concerns can only be graver than ever. And what do Russians do? They just keep fighting. Their manner of thinking seems rather . . . stuck. The US stated its goal very early on: weaken Russia. How can that be accomplished? Soviet innocence. Soviet infallibility. Soviet sense of infinite capacity. Soviets stuck in stubbornness. Soviet fall. Russian innocence. Russian infallibility . . . On your last day, will all this be glorious, or pitiful? Go ahead. Do the serious work of creative drama and rehearse your last day. Work on it as hard as you work here. Deep down, @jonson856 is trying to lead you to the truth. He is trying to save your soul.
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  1783. My dad taught for a full career. Part of it is charisma and humor, part is knowing the students, part is knowing the subject. They detect that you care. That will win over about 90 percent of the students. The ones that are or will be diagnosed as having a conduct disorder? His philosophy was to get to them before they got to him. He had something for them to prove before they had a chance to frame their own victory over him for the day. Being a coach helped him with that. My dad was assaulted in his classroom, was hospitalized, and the student went to jail. I was away in the military when it happened. My siblings were pretty sure that I would have gone to jail, too, if I had been at school that day. My wife taught English in a juvenile detention center. One day a student started to threaten her. In a few seconds the attending guard manhandled the student out the door. The other students just sat stunned for a few more seconds. Then several other guards were in her classroom to establish control. The other students decided to maintain respect. Nobody else got hurt or put in solitary. When you mix in kids headed for conduct disorder with neurotypical children you are just asking for chaos. There's a good chance their dad is a sociopath himself, maybe mom is. There are techniques for positively educating the "fearless" and the "strong", and they can go on to do quite well in life due to their appetite for victory. But in school they need to be together under the supervision of an alpha male who has serious backup. Such students will not be scared to go to school, they just will not want to lose in front of their peers. They will respect the force they are presented with. The neurotypical children need to know these kind of folks exist, and they need to rehearse how they are going to cope when they meet one and hopefully not a gang of them. But it is a great loss for a majority of students when these fearless students decide, with the assistance of their parents, that the classroom is now part of their domain. I think our whole approach with dealing with budding sociopathic students needs a serious new look. Here is the decline that Putin is counting on.
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  1838. The Senator makes many valid points about incentives and the increased likelihood of overuse of asylum. It is an argument for relocating applications to enter the U.S. to large U.S. Consulates in sending nations. Part of the solution needs to include removing incentives for trafficking. But the majority of the Federal budget is spent on domestic issues, Senator, and the sense of the American people is not just that the border is a problem, but child care is a problem, health care and drug costs are a problem, domestic gun violence is a problem, Florida property insurance costs are a problem, etc. Our role in Ukraine is to be a consistent team member among many team members in proportion to our ability and in the context of our overall global trade and strategic situation. I know you study all this. It is inaccurate to equate the armed and violent Russian invasion of Ukraine with the economically and safety driven migration into America. On immigration, again, we should be a team member with migrant sending nations to improve the lot of people feeling it necessary to do something so profound as to leave their own home for the United States. It is a compliment by them of us in a way, but it needs to happen decently and in order. So Senator, you did or did not provide a letter with your preferences on immigration to the Lankford committee early in their negotiating process? The United States Senate could not organize itself to do a proper job on this issue? That committee needed a statement of views and proposals from every Senator in its first week if not sooner.
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  1846. As an American citizen, age 65, I am aware of American imperialism. Human, emphasis on human, history is filled with imperialism. It does not surprise me that America and Russia are imperial powers, as a study of both histories makes plain. Abraham Lincoln, preserving the Union; Catherine the Great, Empress of Russia. What is hypocritical is the proclamation of innocence by any empire. No one is innocent if they accrue any benefit from the largesse of the empire they live under. The average American citizen, as a voter and a critic, has slightly more power than the average Russian citizen to question authority and replace poor leadership. I think that's evident by the social and electoral history of the United States. But the average citizen has little influence when economic powers that be need a change in some small government. And it's one thing to make a list like the above, and quite another to look into the circumstances of each event. I am not going to advocate that Ukraine capitulate to the Russian empire because I should be ashamed of America's imperial history. The average Russian should be as much or more ashamed for this war, although I blame them less for it, as they have next to no power to alter their government. What boggles my mind is the perpetual Russian claims of innocence and infallibility. It boggles my mind because such self-deception led to the fall of the Soviet Union, and the current Russian regime is composed of a very similar mentality. To a considerable extent, the incompetence this mentality produces is on display in the military performance of the Russian empire against a smaller power it shares a land border with and supposedly enjoys superiority over in every military metric. While on the surface, Putin enjoys unmatched support in any election, deep down there appears to be a rather wide disconnect between the Russian people and the Russian government. The FSB and the world's finest corps of riot police keeps that disconnect from getting out of hand. The average US citizen reconnects with the government at least every two years by voting. So no, the list does not change my mind. Slava Ukraine.
    2
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  1858. I doubt they have enough leadership to organize them well, and Ukraine needs to keep going after Russian field leadership and barrier troops. For the most part, Ukraine should stay on defense and attrit the Russian army, because Putin is openly revealing his offensive goals remain unachieved. Kherson, though very difficult geography, is where the offensive opportunity for Ukraine is, because it poses the greatest logistical challenge to the Russians. I hope Ukraine and its allies have been planning and building an extensive logistical strategy and infrastructure of pontoon bridges, boats, and cargo drones to join with an expanded Ukrainian air force in 2024 to retake more of Kherson Oblast, take out the Kerch bridge, and cut or at least seriously harass the land bridge routes to northern Crimea. This would pose a great logistical and political challenge to Putin, creating more opportunities for him to make strategic errors that could be exploited. It could take pressure off eastern Ukraine where Russia has its best logistical conditions. The time is also coming for European nations to make decisions about soliciting volunteer F-16 pilots and more F-16s to augment Ukrainian pilots and aircraft. I do not see another way to assemble sufficient air power to turn this war around in Ukraine's favor. Russia and China contributed pilots to the Korean War. This should be no surprise to them. Partisan presence in Kherson offers some chances to pilots who have to eject, but imprisoned pilots are likely to become an issue. Glide bombs help keep pilots over friendly territory, but intercepting Russian aircraft, which is important to do, is only likely over Russian occupied territory. The front-line European States, Finland, even Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, and Romania, need to see this as a vital opportunity to gain air power experience against Russia, which can help maintain deterrence of Russia. These front-line states also need to consider a new alliance because Putin is successfully exploiting political opportunities in Hungary and elsewhere that slow and sometimes thwart NATO. This new alliance can be more selective about additional members. It could otherwise simply adopt NATO standards to start out with and maintain arms purchases with reliable suppliers. I support the US being a part of that alliance.
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  1881. I don't support her appointment.  But there is a justice issue here.  If a religious group adopts accepted standards for an accredited education, and they manage their costs in a manner that provides accessibility to all, then they are reducing the student capacity the public system is required to support, yet they, the religious school parents, are still paying public school taxes (and rightfully, those of us whose children are past school still have a compelling interest in paying for public education).  This is a financial hardship on the religious school parent.  On the other hand, it's very fair of the public school system to insist that it not be placed in a disadvantaged, last resort position.  Choice of schools in a given locality requires, necessitates, excess capacity in both private and public systems to make choice even possible.   This overcapacity is expensive.  It's like two water and sewer systems side by side in same town.  From a physical facility standpoint, even a transportation standpoint, it would seem more efficient to allow religious electives in public schools, akin to chapel programs on stateside military bases or chapels in publicly accessible hospitals.  No, you can't open secular classes with prayer as is done at religious schools, but there is somewhere for you to pray and fellowship if you so choose.  A lot of religious parents might countenance their children attending public schools if there were the kind of religious options,  made available to our military and people in hospitals open to the public.  This was the case in some areas of earlier America.  Somehow the courts make a distinction between the standing of adults and that of minors on this issue.  We don't have the billions of dollars it would take to create the excess capacity throughout the nation that would give the public the kind of choice being touted by Mrs. DeVos,  "Choice" really seems to be more public relations messaging to distract from the privatizing and profit-taking agenda of an elite that has so much money it has become necessary for them to look under every possible rock for the next increase in their wealth.  Mrs. DeVos does not appear ready to sell all she has, give to the poor, and follow Jesus to the Department of Education, where she then would need the salary it pays.  I hope she goes away sad, pondering why she's not ready to do that.
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  1883. Approach the human condition from more than one perspective.  One I think is missing in the Islam/Islamophobia discussion is the incidence of sociopathy in the overall human population.  Approximately half of prison inmates convicted of violent crimes are sociopaths, that is, they generally have an amygdala with a small volume as seen on a brain scan, score above 5 on a PCL-R test, show a lack of fear and empathy, and often are very adept at manipulating the empathy and conscience of the majority of the human population.  The phenomenon is not new; our science regarding it is making progress.  We can scientifically establish that there are Muslims, even a majority of Muslims, who have a conscience and in and of themselves are not inclined to harm others.  But we can also show that they, and the general population, are vulnerable to being manipulated by sociopaths, and enlisted into behaviors they might not otherwise commit.  This can and has happened in many cultures in human history.  Indeed, modern democracies, while heavily influenced by sociopathic manipulation, are nevertheless historical anomalies, giving those of conscience some political power, "if they can keep it" - B. Franklin.  The norm is the remorseless but calculating ruling group, manipulating the majority to facilitate their own success.  Ruthless politics can find a home in any religion.  I will say that Islam, seeing itself as the successor to all religions, and as a holistic system, is uniquely well suited to creating sociopathic ruling elites and military forces.  It effectively subdues the general population by exploiting the natural fear and conscience of the majority, places a mask of righteousness on it, and gives covert license to its elite, like most monarchies, oligarchies, and totalitarian states do.  Is every Muslim a bad person?  Of course not.  But they're probably afraid of a few of the men at the mosque, and they better go to the mosque, and we should consider their words, especially public words on YouTube, to be said under duress, and they would need to lie about that duress.  (Puts them and us in a bad spot with each other, which is part of the result the enforcers are looking for).  Fear of criminal Islamic sociopaths is as justified as fearing any criminal sociopath, and they are not simple for the majority to pick out of a set human beings in short order, until they get caught for victimizing someone.  So a general fear of them is perhaps innate in us, and I think it wrong to use "phobia" as somehow an inappropriate posture toward those we do not know.  Neuroscience and psychology can help us with this issue.  And for those who have "ears to hear", so can authentic spiritual insight.  (See, The Sociopath Next Door, by Dr. Martha Stout, or Without Conscience:  The Disturbing World of the Psychopaths Among Us by Robert Hare).
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  1885. Scott M  Why should the education field be different than anyone else?  First, I am not an educator, so this is not self advocacy.  I suppose it depends on the value one puts on a child's education, and one's notion of what an education can or should accomplish.  And every parent is free to put their unique value on it.  But if you want choice, then you have to pay for the excess system capacity that choice requires.  There's no choice if no one invested in a place for a child to go somewhere else.  Choice imposes a higher societal cost because you have to have more schools and teachers to choose to go to.  Affluent people who send their children to elite schools obviously feel there is something vital to education, and that may be mixed with their own desire to let someone else do the child raising while they use their wealth to self-actualize.  Other parents had a hard time in school themselves, for any of a number of reasons, and they could care less, both about the school and what their child gets out of it. Attendance is just compliance with the truancy statute.  If there's a side benefit offered by a charter, so much the better. What can happen at a charter is that the pay offered is only attractive to the barely qualified.  It would make perfect sense for the profit-minded charter to hire new graduates of teaching colleges who didn't get the higher paying job in a better school.  If education has a low value to the parent, and the charter is more convenient than any other school, then so what, that's where the child goes to school.  As you say, charter teachers who are dedicated to their profession and gain experience can quit and move on to a better school.  But that's a cap on the quality of the faculty at the charter (or any) school.  Charters can present their star teachers to the market and not present the rest of the staff.  It's a business.  Some customers are savvy, some are not.  You get the money however you can, and that's what it's about.  Pretty soon you really don't have much of a school compared to a community supported public school that set out to build the best faculty it could.  We are seeing the corruption of an institution that supported the idea that a democratic republic relies upon an informed electorate capable of critical think, and that its prosperity is connected to the expansion of knowledge individually and collectively.  It can be seen as so valuable that indeed the teacher is special, and we want them to be, because it is more likely they will convey things of value to their students, and all will benefit. As to unions, I've been on both sides of the table.  Did their demands contribute to the decline of Flint, Michigan?  Probably, but I seriously doubt that's the whole story.  Management can lay out budgets, limits, and consequences.  Unions gave concessions in exchange for job security, and still lost their jobs to cheap, foreign labor.  New plants elsewhere might implement more efficiencies than the old plants can.   Government did not protect them, it facilitated the relocation of manufacturing with free trade agreements.  Communism had a militant influence on American labor in some places.  I saw it.  Other unions were full of vets and highly patriotic.  But I think a better option going forward is the employee owned corporation.  Owners have the upper hand in the employer-employee relationship, so if ownership is distributed among employees, so is the power to determine what portion of profit will go to improving the lives of employees.  Employee owners also have better access to company information that helps them understand the company's limits and its needs for reinvestment.  The main problem is it takes a well-educated group of employee owners to make it work.  Teacher owned charters do happen, and they can be pretty good, but a lot of what we've seen is profit-minded ownership that leaves the teachers out of company governance.
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  1887. I don't support her appointment.  But there is a justice issue here.  If a religious group adopts accepted standards for an accredited education, and they manage their costs in a manner that provides accessibility to all, then they are reducing the student capacity the public system is required to support, yet they, the religious school parents, are still paying public school taxes (and rightfully, those of us whose children are past school still have a compelling interest in paying for public education).  This is a financial hardship on the religious school parent.  On the other hand, it's very fair of the public school system to insist that it not be placed in a disadvantaged, last resort position.  Choice of schools in a given locality requires, necessitates, excess capacity in both private and public systems to make choice even possible.   This overcapacity is expensive.  It's like two water and sewer systems side by side in same town.  From a physical facility standpoint, even a transportation standpoint, it would seem more efficient to allow religious electives in public schools, akin to chapel programs on stateside military bases or chapels in publicly accessible hospitals.  No, you can't open secular classes with prayer as is done at religious schools, but there is somewhere for you to pray and fellowship if you so choose.  A lot of religious parents might countenance their children attending public schools if there were the kind of religious options  made available to our military and people in hospitals open to the public.  This was the case in some areas of earlier America.  Somehow the courts make a distinction between the standing of adults and that of minors on this issue.  There are plenty of religious facilities mingled with public university buildings.  We don't have the billions of dollars it would take to create the excess capacity throughout the nation that would give the public the kind of choice being touted by Mrs. DeVos,  "Choice" really seems to be more public relations messaging to distract from the privatizing and profit-taking agenda of an elite that has so much money it has become necessary for them to look under every possible rock for the next increase in their wealth.  Mrs. DeVos does not appear ready to sell all she has, give to the poor, and follow Jesus to the Department of Education, where she then would need the salary it pays.  I hope she goes away sad, pondering why she's not ready to do that.
    1
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  1926.  @cornflower1783  Some of the metrics Russia uses to support its belief that it can assimilate Ukraine, e.g., population, are the same metrics that China can apply to Russia. Economic realism, e.g. the size of the Chinese economy vs. the Russian economy, also makes it fairly easy to see that China will have increasing leverage over Russian interests. Only Russia's nuclear arsenal gives it a form of parity with China. An application of the "correlation of forces" concept leans in China's favor in eastern Russia. I think India has its own ideals and values, and that it makes a positive contribution toward the world being multi-polar. There are extensive ties between the West and India through immigration, Indian attendance at western universities, and the English language, but India holds its own culture and autonomy with self-respect, and I say good for them. They will deal with everyone according to their own interests as far as I can tell. Mr. Putin could have used Russian financial power to strengthen all these ties he is now trying to build. He has squandered much of that power by pitting members of the Russian Orthodox church against members of the Ukrainian orthodox church. I am not sure he gave any thought as to how that might look to Islam and Hinduism and the Chinese. A greater measure of Christian brotherhood with Ukraine would have been such a more positive way to maintain a healthy Slavic culture, and the competition between two nations would have sharpened both, "iron sharpens iron". Obviously other values are at work here.
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  1973. Do the math. Ukraine has 603,628 square km. The rate of land acquisition early in the war was rapid. Then it went negative when forces withdrew from the north. Now some say the Russian held area is 20% x 603,628 = 120,726 square km. Let's say Russia's new goal is 50% x 603,628 or 301,814 square km of Ukraine. So there are 301,814 - 120,726 = 181,088 square km left to take. Let's go with General Milley's observation that some days the Russian military will advance 1km along some part of the front. Let's say that part of the front is 20kM wide. So that's 20 square km per day on average currently. 181,088/20 = 9054 days or more than 24 years to achieve the goal. What is this, day 146 of the war? 120,726/146 = 827 square km/day. At 827 square km per day, Russia should reach its goal in 181,088/827 in 219 more days if it has not lost steam. Russia has not had days like that since the Ukrainian withdrawal from Luhansk. Why hasn't Russia put more forces into this war to keep up an 827 square km/day rate of land acquisition? Because . . . they are low on steam. Ukrainian military skill and weaponry is also slowly ramping up. This is the frog in the slowly warming pot of water technique (I'm fine . . . I'm fine . . . that don't hurt . . . I'm fine . . . ). There's never a day so full of bad news that Russian leadership thinks it needs to spasm with a tactical nuke. They are so used to glossing over small defeats. They don't seem to commit suicide. They seem to want to keep living . . . .like the frog in the pot.
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  2006.  @christophertodd1980  When you say "getting rid" do you mean there is a list of names of Russian Nazis in Russian prisons or are they just dead? How many, ballpark? What is the official Russian definition of Nazi? Is Navalny considered a Nazi? We have Websters and other dictionaries. I am not acquainted with the standard Russian dictionary. I have access to Russian/English speakers so go ahead and cite the Russian law or Russian dictionary. And historically, early in the Great Patriotic War, Russia did have a problem with invading Nazis, so "never" is a bit hyperbolic. I acknowledge that Russia did prevail in the end. And as far as NATO and the US, I will resort to the typical Russian retort: Russia interferes a lot in other nation's affairs, so nobody is innocent here, and I am not saying they are. The essence of my post is that this is a fight to the death of an army based on each side's closely held narratives. They would rather die (or have someone else die) than give up their perceptions. This will stop when the boys in the field are dead or they have killed their commanders and are taking their guns home with them. That's what Russia needs to be concerned about, their own army becoming so frustrated it turns on the military leadership and the FSB and the police that conscripted them. In Russia, they have a lot of gun control for a reason. And that's a difference between the US and Russia. In the US, the cops do not go too far because the population is armed. Very armed. Nothing comes close. Russia has had serious gun control but throwing men into a war for a leader's ego could change that.
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  2057.  @jaysdood  I don't see any deep thinking support for "entirely rationally" or "very reasonable". I see hubris. A proper plan for a successful invasion and occupation of Ukraine would need to assume that the West would intervene and then plan for and be militarily prepared for that intervention. Why? Because the West has a history of intervention, and Russia frequently calls attention to those interventions when it serves their pretexts and true interests. So there, that is an assertion and a supporting statement for the assertion. You don't explain how wrong assumptions can still be very reasonable and entirely rational when it comes to war planning. Speaking of nuance, why assume Biden and his staff will respond to something like Crimea 2014 the same as Obama and his staff? How rational or reasonable is that? Speaking of nuance, could Biden have been pulling out of Afghanistan to divert resources to Ukraine? Was Putin asking himself these questions, or was he working in a paradigm tuned to interpret actions as weak and in his favor rather than a rational approach based on sound military doctrine and history? Did he tell himself, living in his paradigm of what is existential, that Ukraine was not an existential issue for the West, and therefore he need not plan for their intervention? Did he not consider that he might need to understand how the West might have a paradigm other than his? Or is he too self-centered to do that? Take a step and make your case. Assertions by themselves do not make a case. The issue is: Did Putin act entirely rationally and very reasonably in deciding to invade Ukraine? Show us your logic that he did. This is Western conversation, intended to get to a better place.
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  2063. Is everyone in a divided society, with at least 16 types of personality (Myers-Briggs) always looking for meaning? Animals, which we also are, pursue food, manage their energy use, and reproduce, motivated by hunger and innate desire. By natural selection, animals with a will to survive, survive. Yes, some personalities want meaning, but others, such as those with ASPD, pursue victory, operating in a paradigm of winners and losers, predators and prey. The good life is about winning, not meaning, or "Winning isn't everything, winning is the only thing" -- Vince Lombardi, Green Bay Packers. Vince probably didn't totally believe that, but some certainly act as if it is true. It takes about one minute to put oneself at ease by considering the Stoic's epitaph, "I was not. I was. I am not. I do not care." Before we were born, we did not suffer, nor were we aware of anything. In life, we are aware and suffer. After our death, it stands to reason that, as it was before we were born, there is no awareness or suffering after we die. If you die with your affairs incomplete, you bear no consequences for that. Who do you know that keeps buying time with lawsuits to avoid consequences? The ethical implications concern the living wealthy, and thus they find religion useful, as long as it is not too critical of their wealth, though they are sometimes willing to bear and barter with that opposition if they still perceive advantage in doing so. There is no search for meaning in this mentality. Jesus is a character in a set of stories. The character confronts the religious cons of his time. The character is killed in large measure for blowing their game. They were losing their following and the money they were bringing in. The story is self-aware of what this video is talking about. The character also puts any true and living God on the spot with a standing proposal: if an individual establishes an ethic of humility, truth seeking, work, justice, and care for those around them, then God promises to show up in that individual's experience in some perceptible way and empower that ethic. Is that such a bad way to live our days? I suppose it is if you see life through the lens of personal victory. But, crass as it may seem, if you haven't died, had your lights go out, and then recovered a statistically valid number of times, wouldn't it just be prudent risk management to leave open the possibility that spirit exists? But, by all means, yes, please avoid the con men.
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  2070.  @Peter22187  It might take something very harsh like that to bring the war to culmination. Russia sees little reason to stop under current circumstances. France is right to put European forces on the table. Russia will be very tempted to move air defense to Ukraine in the fall to take out the F16s before winter. Ukraine might consider keeping its F16 squadrons in ever more advanced training and out of the country until say November. If Russia shifts its AD to Ukraine, the opportunity will be there to take down Russian electricity systems on the eves of cold fronts, maximizing the effects of power outages. See recent Texas cold wave. It's a violation of just war laws, but Russia has set those laws aside. If the West really wants to stay close to just war laws, then it needs to supplement the Ukrainian air force with its own air forces. That turns the tide and incentivizes Russia to bargain for an armistice. Ukraine needs to set its priorities for recovery. I'd pick the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhya oblast and its Sea of Azov coast and recovery of a port on that sea. I don't see them getting more than that without European nations putting troops in the country. It would take the United States Marine Corps to get Crimea back. What will drive Russia crazy is that part of the armistice will include NATO forces in Ukraine to deter future land grabs. They'll have to make a choice between giving up ground or the severe effects of winter with little electricity for their privileged ethnic Russians. It could all feel quite like the Cuban missile crisis with the likely nuclear threats before an armistice is achieved. I think quietly dangling a few nukes over the Kerch bridge and not insisting on Russia giving back Crimea might keep a lid on Russian nuclear threats. The West failed to deter this invasion. A bitter sense of that could fuel the determination to develop a very credible deterrent to future Russian annexations and obtain a tense peace.
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  2088.  @Taskandpurpose  I'm an electrical engineer, USAF vet, USAR vet, member Florida Sheriffs Association. I see building and maintaining stability includes sufficient electrical power to operate water and wastewater plants, police facilities and their communications, public radio and TV, medical clinics, refrigeration of food and medication, street lights and traffic signals, and air conditioning of important interior functions like local government, hospitals, banks, and schools. UN troops need to secure the people and transportation systems and routes that accomplish these functions. Once schools can be guarded and operate, they further stabilize communities by providing a school nurse, the usually good character of teachers and staff, breakfast, lunch, and a take home supper for students and their families. UN troops need to keep the students and teachers safe. Adults are free to find and conduct work during the day, knowing their children and grandchildren are relatively safe. After school programs for children can enhance parent work income. All of it relies on the integrity of the soldiers, but that should be reinforced by their contact with the people that maintain these systems. When soldiers see these stabilizing functions helping to bring order, they should feel good about their purpose and naturally defend these functions. The community in turn should join associations that support the soldiers, pooling funds to get them body armor (amazingly, this has to be done in poor counties in the State of Florida) strengthening the bond. I am optimistic about these Kenyan soldiers. There is no playing the race or colonial victim card with them personally. Of course, one sees the card playing when they are insulted by being considered foreign puppets. Haitian civilians in police associations and PTAs should do what they can to invest in these soldiers in a direct bond that can last beyond their deployment.
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  2138. Hondurans come to the US to make more money and/or escape an insecure situation. The middle ground here is that these corporations accept that their improvements in Honduras become part of American consulates and sanctuary cities for Hondurans seeking security, asylum, and economic progress. Honduras is a sending nation of illegal immigrants to the US. Honduras needs to accept that and that it needs to cooperate with the United States to create a relationship of legal migration as well as better internal security for its citizens. As long as Hondurans illegally enter the United States, violating US sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Honduran government needs to admit its inadequacy in providing a decent level of physical and economic security and work with the U.S. to achieve that rather than declare the US presence wrong. Americans for years have been asked to graciously understand the illegal Honduran presence in the United States in its various forms. We are neighbors in a relationship, and we need to broaden the set of considerations being discussed here. The parties have laid out their positions, the Honduran powers that be want the corporate improvements for themselves for free or they turn the security forces and gangs loose on the property. The corporations put an $11 billion dollar price tag on their improvements as the cost of handing everything over to the Honduran powers that be. I suspect the idealisms being expressed here are a bit distant from the hard bargaining that's actually on the table. Honduras needs to take care of its reputation, because this really smells like a Honduran bait and switch and US corporations going easy on risk assessment believing Uncle Sam will bail them out in a deal. This is not at all worth a military conflict.
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  2155. No. I think the US national security establishment understands psychopaths. Not that long ago they went up against the world's fourth strongest military, Iraq, out of concern for that bully leader's trends, and changed that regime. But he did not have nukes. I think Western behavior has more to do with the prevailing American (and perhaps other) interests deciding that Ukraine is not worth the risk of nuclear escalation and has made that known to the White House. See Lloyd Austin's press conference early in the war after 2/24/22. He gets uncharacteristically animated about avoiding nuclear conflict. "It shall not happen" seems to have come down from multiple places on high. Ms. Berlin seems to think the President has the last say on these matters. He is definitely a player because he is the manager, but not the owner, of the federal government. He is not the only player in such decisions. I think that more logically explains the very calibrated delivery of military aid and calibrated tests of what the Russian regime will do in reaction to a specific act of war or set of circumstances. We now know it may be less risky to take out the Kerch Bridge in an isolated, surgical operation, but do that in coordination with broad combined arms assaults across the line and especially the land bridge and Russia might decide it can take the steam out of that with dozens of tactical nuclear detonations in Ukraine. A Russian nuclear spasm in Ukraine is possible. The bully paradigm really does not apply. The psychopathic paradigm must be considered. Putin cannot look weak to the rest of his regime. He has also proven he is willing demolish Ukrainian cities. And what catastrophic consequence were we going to mete out after taking down the Kerch bridge? Take out the relatively unused port of Sevastopol? Become Ukraine's air force? How does Ukraine move on from that point? Russia has to be left thinking it can adjust and persevere in the long run without resorting to supplementing its bombardment capabilities with tactical nuclear weapons. It might be willing to make a withdrawal from the Kherson Oblast in pieces without resorting to nuclear weapons, but only if it believes it will recover Kherson and reestablish the fresh water supply to Crimea. Russia is now on a war footing for the long run, and Ukraine will need to be in NATO and under its nuclear umbrella to retain what it has and what it might recover. The real test of Western resolve will be the strength of the NATO fortification of the remnant of Ukraine, which Russia will vehemently oppose. I don't see how Putin saves face if he just lets Russian forces in Ukraine collapse. He will do what he can do. This ends like Korea, a very tense armistice. Stopped in Ukraine and by NATO on the west, Putin will probably head for the Stans. Now there's a country that will be very difficult to help without starting immediately to provide them military aid. Like the Soviets, Putin's psychopathic paradigm will run the Russian economy into another collapse. Western oligarchs take note that our system seems more sustainable for wealth.
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  2172.  @andrzejs9788  This is the kind of self-soothing that leads to self-defeat, and because it might help the Ukrainians win, I do not care too much if Russian advocates and their sympathizers cling to this kind of thinking. "As in for every Russian killed Ukraine loses 5-10 men." That would require a superiority of training that Russia has not demonstrated. It is more likely that human losses are fairly even, but we people on YouTube really don't know. If Russian losses are so much lower and everything about them is so much superior, it does not make sense that Russia would need to mobilize any more than it has. My Ukrainian friends have shared with me the memory of the Holodomor. They sense a fundamental Russian leadership hostility toward Ukrainians and an imperial design upon their land that does not include their notions of liberty. They know their system is corrupt. They also know their system is not as corrupt or ruthless as Russian leadership. Many of them would rather die than live under Russian jurisdiction. Thousands of them have already proved that belief. You can think that their thinking so is delusional. They think Russians are delusional. The delusional are at war with the delusional. Maybe "pitchforks" were the Javelin missiles that gave Russian tanks a hard time from Day 1, but Ukraine will continue to receive and incorporate Western weapons that essentially match or exceed the Russian weapons that are getting to Ukraine. "Advancing Ukrainians are basically pulverized with long range fire (artillery, missiles)." Ukrainians waiting in defensive positions were getting pulverized. Advancing Ukrainians are moving targets not so easily targeted. Russian fixed targets are more frequently being hit, not by pitchforks, but by HIMARS. Ukraine is getting coached and trained by the best in NATO. The CJCS' opinion is that this is a long war, started in 2014, and both sides have shown much willingness to go on with it. It could very well go on until Mr. Putin retires in some fashion, because his team has made their commitment, as evidenced by their resort to nuclear saber rattling. Russia had a good thing going with oil and gas sales all over the world. The money was pouring in. But it's never enough. Always a gleam in the eye. This may be akin to the 30 years' war, the delusional v. the delusional until exhaustion. China will need to move in and "help." Russia is opposing the wrong empire. Xi is smiling in your face.
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  2186.  @hamidramezani7083  Hamas had poor intelligence on Israel's strategic thinking and Israel's treaties with the United States when they launched their attack of Israel on October 7th. Hamas would like to direct everyone's attention to anyone but themselves for the disaster they initiated. Yes, blaming someone else is very human. Yes, Israel could have chosen proportional retaliation, but they were well aware of Hamas's and Hezbollah's ultimate intentions that have been building up for years. And so they went beyond the Torah's "Show no pity. Life for life . . . " They made their objectives almost as ultimate as the intentions of Hamas and Hezbollah. What this portends, unfortunately for both sides, is that the next fight might be even worse. Such is the depth of religious intolerance, property theft (by Israel), and rage in the region. The responsibility for acting with conscience lies mostly with the people in the region. Unfortunately, human conscience is being overridden by religious dogma and ethnocentrism. What the US might do, but is very hesitant to do, is establish a protectorate in Gaza to displace the IDF there and attempt to reach a cease fire with Hamas so UN assistance can resume in earnest. The US is hesitant to do that because of the generally hostile character of US-Hamas relations. A significant and perhaps more appropriate military to establish such a protectorate would be from Egypt or Türkiye, but they are not stepping forward either. Israel might accept the US in Gaza, it would be harder for them to accept Egypt or Turkiye.
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  2191. The UAF is facing a Russian military, that, though degraded, is superior to the Iraqi army of 2003. The UAF is inferior to the coalition force that attacked the Iraqi army of 2003. Morale on each side is perhaps more of a factor in 2023. Somehow Ukraine has to act very quickly to overwhelm and overrun a local Russian force and quickly establish logistics to support its extension. These conditions seem to me to require the use of long-range munitions to degrade and complicate Russian logistics and command and control. The relative success or failure of those efforts in particular places could make the selection of assault vectors very dynamic. Creating that uncertainty would favor Ukraine. Everyone is going to learn what is really possible. I for one favor Ukraine remain in a defensive posture as long as Russia insists on advancing in the Donbas because that could lead to the Russian ground forces exhaustion and ease the reclamation of Ukrainian territory. A vital matter for intelligence is to determine if the strength of Russian forces will be increasing or decreasing as Russia continues offensive operations in Donbas. If Russia is gaining military strength while on the offensive, then it is vital that Ukraine get to the Sea of Azov in strength and in order to establish leverage over Crimea and then make an attempt at negotiation. Only ATACMS might make up for the lack of a more capable Ukrainian Air Force. This is a precarious situation for Ukraine. Russia is counting on turning the tide by going on defense, inflicting severe casualties on the UAF, and then steadily increasing its own military power. Ukraine vitally needs an inventory of skills and equipment that can truly reduce Russian strength over time, or they have little recourse besides pleading for Allied intervention to balance the scales and bring the conflict to an end. The Allied role would probably be to serve as the air force for Ukraine. F22s would address the MIG-31s. F35s would begin to silence Russia's main advantage in artillery. The Russian Black Sea Fleet would begin to experience more problems launching missile attacks on Ukrainian targets. A recent video of a Ukrainian tank going to a great deal of trouble to take out a Russian trench illustrates the need to bring back napalm. The horror. Sad.
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  2216. From Webster's Dictionary of 1828: 1. A rising against civil or political authority; the open and active opposition of a number of persons to the execution of a law in a city or state. It is equivalent to sedition, except that sedition expresses a less extensive rising of citizens. It differs from rebellion, for the latter expresses a revolt, or an attempt to overthrow the government, to establish a different one or to place the country under another jurisdiction. It differs from mutiny, as it respects the civil or political government; whereas a mutiny is an open opposition to law in the army or navy. insurrection is however used with such latitude as to comprehend either sedition or rebellion. Example: It is found that this city of old time hath made insurrection against kings, and that rebellion and sedition have been made therein. Ezra 4:19. It follows reasonably that the writers of the 14th Amendment defined "insurrection" in the manner above. Indeed, the last sentence indicates "insurrection" to be a slightly more general and encompassing term that includes sedition or rebellion as explained in the definition. When a piece of legislation does not define all its terms, legislative rules typically resort to a recognized dictionary definition. Or is the legislature required to establish an official state definition of every word to be used in its documents? Well yes, and that is why they adopt a recognized, publicly dictionary. It is legislative and legal negligence not to do so. And how are people to better understand each other without some reliance on a common language of well-defined words.
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  2247.  @spiritfiremsp  "humility has no place in assessment and analysis." When one assesses and analyzes a situation, one can be affected by confirmation bias. A person can have an underlying set of things they prefer to see and a preference to use certain methods of analysis. What this quote displays is the quick dismissal of the misunderstood. If this is also a trait of Russian leadership, then it can be exploited by the more self-critical. Mearsheimer has pointed out how this was going to come to a fight. He can understand the Russian leadership mindset without agreeing with it. Russian leadership has dehumanized the Ukrainian people into the status of "proxy", "nazis", and "nationalists." This is a tendency of Moscow that goes back decades to the dehumanization of the "kulaks." There have been fights before between Moscow and Ukraine. This time the West is stepping in based on a commitment made in the Budapest Memorandum. There should be no shock in Moscow about resistance to its denial of Ukrainian independence. The Soviets left Afghanistan after 10 years. US/NATO left Afghanistan after 20 years. These facts do not support a notion of lack of persistence in US/NATO. Russia's economy is a fraction of US/NATO. Allusions to a sort of infinite Russian capacity for a fight don't stand up in the light of history. Humility sees that neither side has infinite capacity. Compared to the West, Russian leadership lacks empathy for human beings. We know Russia tries to use our conscience against us. The Ukrainians are fighting against this Russian dehumanization, which they have experienced before in tragic numbers of deaths. For Ukraine, this is a good fight for freedom and independence from a callous Moscow, and the West is very clearly with them this time. The recommendation is that Russia recognize Ukraine's jurisdiction within the borders existing at the signing of the Budapest Memorandum. If any within that jurisdiction feel unduly mistreated, then Ukraine should allow them to sell their assets in peace and move to wherever outside the Ukrainian border their sympathies lie.
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  2248.  @spiritfiremsp  Yes. I looked up that RAND study. Note RANDs recent comment on how that study is being used today. Russia might have taken a clue from all sorts of RAND studies and not gotten into overextending itself. Russia really needed to focus on making life better for its young people, and not just handing out ~$16,000 for having ten kids. (Did they ask ANY women how that might go over?) Instead, some have left the country, some have died in combat (out of proportion to alleged persecution of 14,000, in Donbas), others dread impending military service and war. Russian internet posters rattle the saber of "general mobilization" of the Russian population. This is a formula for increased despair among the Russian young. But that is part of the blind spot of Russian leadership, they can see logically within their paradigm, but they lack feeling when it comes to consequences for others. Why do I think Russia went to war in Ukraine? 1) Russian elite like vacationing in Crimea and don't want to be subject to Ukrainian courts for any mishaps there or otherwise against Ukrainian citizens. This is something I am advised Ukrainian elites are careful to do to avoid prosecutions by other jurisdictions; 2) The industrial and geological resources of the Donbas; 3) Access to annexed territories' population for military conscription and general labor, thus reducing risks for the Russian population of greater Moscow; 4) Retention of the Sevastopol naval base; 5) Prevention of development and sale to Europe of Ukrainian oil and gas; generally increase the price of oil and gas; 6) The containment of Ukrainian nationalist and cultural influence on ethnic Ukrainians in Russia and ideological influence upon Russians in general; 7) Establishment of an unarmed and unaligned buffer state that can gradually be annexed or otherwise controlled as geopolitical conditions change in favor of such; 8) Consumption and disclosure of US/NATO armaments in collaboration with Chinese intelligence and their ambitions toward Taiwan in exchange for Chinese support. Feel free to add yours. I agree Russia will not agree to the 1994 borders. Ukraine may try to re-establish them. Both sides may reach temporary exhaustion somewhere in the middle.
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  2252. Mr. Lieven rests his case largely on Russian artillery superiority. That can be dealt with through tightly coordinated tactical reconnaissance (the role of the F-35 or its radar, computers and communications on some other suitable aircraft) and long-range Ukrainian artillery. The question is does the West want to provide that capability in the necessary quantity through an air wing of foreign volunteer pilots and donated aircraft. The price for Russia keeping Crimea should be Ukraine in NATO and the EU and no land bridge across southern Ukraine. Ukraine gets the Zaporizhya power plant back and controls, but allows, the fresh water supply to Crimea from Nova Kakhovka. Thereafter a Ukrainian navy and air force should be built up to the point of providing significant deterrence of future Russian adventures. Until that is achieved, Russia would have to tolerate an expanded NATO air and naval presence, even ground presence, in and around Ukraine. And I don't think trading Crimea to not have all that happen is something the Russians will do. Before Ukraine exhausts its military it needs to have severed the land bridge and put all of Crimea under threat of bombardment for the leverage that gains them. When it's over Russia wins Crimea and dreams of somehow eroding NATO in Ukraine in the future. What Ukraine must get is a remnant that looks secure enough for Western investment. Russia will always want to thwart that, but they would do so at the risk of activating some or all of the levers Ukraine would have over Crimea. Crimea has important resources off-shore. This is a very significant loss for Ukraine. Ukraine does have a gas field in its west that could provide revenue from the rest of Europe. But Russia will have had success in limiting Ukraine's ability to serve European energy needs. Lost me at "Russian-speaking". Russian speaking is common throughout Ukraine and does not signal loyalty to Russia. I have Ukrainian friends. Russian loyalists in Ukraine should migrate to Crimea and serve in the tourist industry or work the infrastructure supporting it. In a few years non-Russian tourists might start showing up. Meanwhile Russia has to figure out how its going to update its navy to make Sevastopol relevant. In the end, the Russian fetish with Crimea may prove to be very expensive for Russia. It deserves to be.
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  2255. My interactions with some homeless is that they value freedom from the kind of constraints that come with maintaining a place they might be provided and their capacity to get along with neighbors in close quarters. I'm saying some. The Finns have decided that the first step in dealing with the homeless is getting them in a decent home right away accompanied by a high level of social worker interaction to help maintain good relations with neighbors and work through trauma and other issues that underly the homelessness. Sometimes that intervention can get people back into the workforce and reducing the amount of public subsidy they need, but any home that is in reasonable proximity to employment is probably going to cost more than that job can sustain. That's what large, private capital purchases of real estate have done to America. I have often thought that "barracks" or dormitories could be set up for homeless veterans next to existing National Guard and Reserve Centers. They have kitchens and having meals with Guard and Reserve personnel provides some camaraderie and familiar interaction without a military service commitment. These Centers are almost in every county, being necessary to support Guard and Reserve activities. They often have extra public land available for structures, and there are jobs to be done maintaining these properties. Some vets probably would not want anything to do with such a place, but the existence of these facilities would make the case that the public has provided a cot and three hots and a job opportunity for every homeless vet out there. Vacant spaces would be available to the general public in cases of local disaster relief. More expensive would be barracks or dorms or studio apartment complexes nearer civilian job and cultural centers. This would be the kind of real estate development that the incoming administration would seem to have some valuable experience with if they actually have any interest in addressing the issue.
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  2264.  @jackthorton10  I am not siding with Birisu Andrei due to his hubris. Your question is important by itself for the American people. My two cents. Afghanistan either needed to become another South Korea (essentially a permanent presence) or a short vengeance mission focused on key persons like bin Laden. What seems to happen is that, while the various hunts are on, all sorts of military-industrial and contractor interests lobby for an expansion of the mission to turn a more focused set of objectives into a profit center. This is not to dismiss all elements of good will and altruism toward the Afghan people. It's not to dismiss the forces' interests as they see more problems the longer they stay and how the industrial sector can help with that. But the process stumbles into years and thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Enough of the American public, mixed with a variety of foreign interests, created an opportunity for Trump to gain politically by cutting a deal to leave. Biden was stuck with finishing the deal. Trump, if re-elected, would have had to push the date out if he took advice on how it needed to be done to secure his political gain. Whatever the President, the mission had become a money pit, with some of the money funding the enemy. The place took a dive into even deeper poverty when the money was shut off, Pakistan and others collecting rents also noting reduced revenue. I would have preferred the short vengeance mission. For many, me included, the demise of bin Laden closed the 9/11 chapter. Instead we heard admirable but expensive humanitarian appeals to stay in what is probably the most logistically difficult nation for the US armed forces to operate in. The responsible thing that could have been done from almost the beginning was to fund a robust staff and programs to issue SIVs to the deserving Afghans and reduce the mob of people and tragedy at egress. We should have been out within a year after May 2011. The young Obama, a guy I generally liked, was no match for the interests involved.
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  2269.  @EvgeniyYakushev-m2u  Trump is like Putin. Ceding land looks weak. And neither Trump nor Putin wants to look weak. That is their common psychology. They don't like losing. If you are looking for an indicator of American feelings on Ukraine, look at the votes in the US Congress for military aid to Ukraine and declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. Americans are very divided about their domestic issues. They are very unified on supporting Ukraine, Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. It's a very simple, street fight kind of mentality. Russia is a big bully picking on little Ukraine. America might look like a bully to you. But to most Americans, Russia in Ukraine looks like a bully. You can start citing the past like most other Russian advocates. Americans are mostly living in the moment now. They are not immobilized by their colonial past. You are a sophisticated man to speak Russian and English and have access to YouTube. Here you are in a position to cite media sources that you believe to be the most accurate. Please do so. As an American I have access to media sources such as Democracy Now, Mother Jones, PBS, Fox News, OAN, DW, France24, RT, Chinese state media, and a vast array of publications and YouTube Channels. How is it not a free market of information? Are some Americans brain washed? Yes, they are. They get hooked on emotional techniques used by media to sell advertising or carry out the agenda of some oligarch or government. All I can say is keep exploring this market of news, and use the good mind that God gave you to discern the truth. I can respect you for that effort.
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  2271.  @EvgeniyYakushev-m2u  Jimmy Carter. 1976 to 1980. I should know, that's when I was in the USAF. All that happened was an attempt to get hostages out of Iran, or it was kept pretty secret. Then the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, so the CIA gets another place to give the Soviets a hard time. Yeah, it was the Cold War with direct involvements and proxies. The great American catastrophe was and is Iraq/Syria. Russia's army is in that neighborhood too. Reagan did not have anything Ukraine or Afghanistan scale going on during his term. Took Grenada pretty fast from the Cubans. Funded the Contras to give Nicaragua a hard time. Daniel Ortega is still there. Look, I have Ukrainian guests. They speak Russian. The mob boss/Orthodox/strong v. weak method is in both Ukraine and Russia. Brothers, right? They had personal experience with it as businesspeople. My guests are here to get away from all of that. So far, they like America. Not perfect, but they like it. My guests tell me that what really gets Russian leadership concerned is the prospect of Russian-speakers in Ukraine developing a Western mentality and sharing that with Russian family and friends. I said I thought Russian leadership did not want Western development of Ukrainian oil and gas. They said maybe a little bit of that, but mostly it is ideological. Ideas are something to debate, like we do here, not send an army to kill people over. Our army is mostly home or with friends. There are some small fights here and there. Like I said, the mess in Iraq/Syria.
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  2327.  @ks-qu4kj  Putin is a psychopath. There are thoughts that don't come easy to him, like thoughts of losing, and a compulsive need to win and be great. He is a somewhat like Donald Trump, although more intelligent I would say. He sees adjacent territory as available to add power to the Russian regime in the long run, even if that entails a huge setback in the short run. This is a long running characteristic of Russian leadership and contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union. The result was not a long-term increase in power, but a reduction in power. Psychopathic leadership demoralizes a population. The Russian nation, given its land area and agricultural capability, ought to have a population greater in number than the United States, but instead it is less than half the US population and far less than the population of the "West" it so often calls attention to. A similar comparison can be made between North and South Korea. Russia's underperforming demographics are a result of the success of the development of perhaps the world's most potent system of internal security. Those in that institution enjoy the finer things in life, while the rest generally underproduce due to despair and the alcoholism that often goes with that despair. That system sent millions in Ukraine and others all over the Soviet Union to their death in the camps or their disability if they survived the camps. As psychopaths, the leaders have no empathy for those they have treated unreasonably. To them, other people are a means to the leaders' perceived ends, because they truly believe that they know what is best for the country. They are always "right." That's what Gorbachev said about Putin, "He is always right." Surely you do not think he meant that literally.
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  2328. I've signed off on monthly payments for nuclear power. It had a wholesale price of about 9 cents per kWh. Add 1 cent for transmission and 4 cents for distribution and administration and you were at 14 cents per kWh. That was in the 90s. It is not cheap. Wind and solar are cheaper now. Hydro, where you can do it, was the cheapest. Coal was at 6 cents per kWh out of the plant. Today its more expensive than gas, solar, or wind generated power. That's as much a reason for utilities not building new coal plants as renewable incentives. New power plants are natural gas fired or renewable. A nuclear plant has a low risk of failure, but a high cost for failure if it happens. See Chernobyl. If you think we need to do more nuclear, then good luck convincing the rate payers their electric bills need to go up 15 to 25%. What the US should do is keep rebuilding its existing nuclear generating sites if they can be updated safely. Burning oil to generate power is up over 15 cents per kWH. Utilities avoid oil as much as possible as a fuel source. What utilities do want to do is operate their coal plants for their designed life in order to pay off their construction debt and fulfill long-term coal contracts. My understanding of the US warning of a Russian invasion is that that call was based on analysis of the scope and equipment involved in the exercises close to the border. If a possible invasion is not on your checklist, there is no reason to conduct exercises of the scale conducted so close to an international boundary. You conduct them on more interior bases. Russia is certainly sensitive to NATO force levels near its western border. They should not be surprised by comparable concerns. I think Stone's proposal that somehow the US tricked the Russian Army into invading Ukraine is wrong. There is a school of geopolitics in Russia that finds the assimilation of Ukraine a vital Russian strategic interest, no matter how 40 million Ukrainians might feel otherwise. The sense of importance of that interest explains Russian persistence in the conflict. If Russia just wanted to end conflict in Donbas, they would have focused on it in the first place. Stone goes on to back up the idea that Putin is essentially negligent in due diligence with his own government. Maybe not such a smart guy. And it does not surprise me much that Ukrainians would use the kind of state mechanisms of population control that the Russians use. They were in the same Soviet Union. Hey, I know Ukrainians that prefer being in the US to pre-war Ukraine. Stone was right on when mentioning the contrast between the American and Russian defense budget. We do not get a good ROI on American defense. Interviewer asked very good questions.
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  2446. I propose Russia is in Ukraine because the Russian people and their institutions did not force a limited term in office for Vladimir Putin. Putin's disassociation from reality and his grandiosity have been allowed to increase because he has been allowed to remain in office. Now that he is fully committed to his autocratic rule, a rule that requires victory, he lacks political room in the midst of his own elite and undergirding forces to bring anything less than a clear victory for his war against Ukraine. His very life is on the line. I wish Medea would name the American officials that persuaded Ukraine to abandon the Turkish sponsored talks. I wish she would better itemize what those talks meant for Ukraine, because they meant significant territorial concessions to Russia, namely, the territory occupied by Russia at the time. I hope Medea is also mindful of what happens to people under Russian occupation. Medea's proposal to cut arms support of Ukraine hands the military advantage to Russia and therefore the negotiating advantage to Russia. Why would Ukraine's supporters unilaterally stop supplying arms to Ukraine without a reciprocal and tangible concession from Russia and its supporters? She is stubbornly one sided and actually not a very good negotiator herself if all she does is propose unilateral concessions. She could improve her public relations by proposing some equivalent concession to be made by Russia. Something like Putin approves a Chinese consulate be built next to his palace in Sochi and the Chinese military is allowed to secure the consulate and the palace and some of the surrounds. The West will help pay for it. Putin can live out his days in luxury and the world can move on. Better than being sent to St. Helena like Napoleon. Or is he just too important to do something like that for that lot of his countrymen who will die for his ambition in the days and weeks ahead?
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  2480. We do not know Putin's intentions. We do not know if Russian perceptions are those of desperation or will to power or what percentages of both. What we see is that Putin annexes small regions of adjacent nations. It would be reasonable to assume there is an underlying and less spoken issue for his doing so. Russian public statements are so often mendacious it is reasonable to assume the world is always being tested by Russian pretext in search of opportunity. The actions of Russia indicate they want jurisdiction over particular and additional lands, no matter how badly they have damaged them. Looking at the geography and economy and climate change aspects of Asia and Russia, what Russia really needs to be concerned about in the long run is China. Russia and Mearsheimer seem to quietly put great stock in the simple difference in population between Russia and Ukraine. The difference in population between China and Russia is considerably more acute, and the difference in relative economic power amplifies it. The Chinese, more than ever, have cause to downrate Russian conventional military capability. The densely populated areas of China are subject to sea level rise impacts. Those people will need a place to go. The land areas north of China, while not a paradise, would be mor habitable in a warmer world. Rather than Japan, the analogy here is Afghanistan, a nation the Soviet Union considered within its sphere of influence and Islam a long-term existential threat to Russia. The Soviets were worn down by a motivated native population supported by the West. They pulled out. The Russians can pull out of Ukraine, and Ukraine is aligned, preferably for Russia perhaps, not with the Islamic empire but with the American empire. While potent at a distance, the US is unlikely to establish anything like an offensive capability against Russia in Ukraine. This is demonstrated by the limited deployments of US troops and other forces to Estonia, Romania, etc. It would be American oil and gas interests that would want to break up Russia into smaller parts. The revenue from sales to Europe is obviously lucrative.
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  2505. If I were Ukraine, I would be discussing more M113s with the US. Some M113s are amphibious. This may not enable a major offensive, but it could enable raids that could be problematic for Russian forces. Ukraine should also develop US Marine style forces for the long-term, otherwise this geography will always present them with significant defensive challenges. The Russians have to consider that an attack on the dam could incite another attack on the Kerch bridge. The Russians may also threaten the dam to dissuade Ukraine from further attacks on the Kerch bridge. The two sides are somewhat in a MAD scenario in this particular respect. Only a Marine style force, coupled with developments in improved Ukrainian air power, might enable Ukraine to operate in Crimea in the midst of the dam-bridge standoff. In the meantime, Ukraine could develop offensive plans for areas just far enough to the east to avoid Dnipro River issues to cut off the land bridge to Crimea, further setting the stage for future Marine type operations. Flooding would also subside as the Dnipro River stabilized in its new status without the dam. Russia will eventually repair the Kerch bridge, and that will change the Crimean situation again. That makes cutting off the land bridge resupply of Crimea all the more important for Ukraine to accomplish. It is likely that Russia is moving its experienced troops to defend against that offensive. It would seem that a significant increase in Ukrainian air power will be necessary to gain ground in Crimea, other forms of attack not having the necessary range. Keeping key roads and rail lines used by the Russians under attack could offset the problematic resupply issues Ukraine would face in Crimea. I understand there has been a patient effort to bring a squadron of Ukrainian F-16 aircraft and pilots to operational readiness. It would be timely if that force appeared this winter. The Russian Air Force has not demonstrated any dramatic ability to improve its performance in order to counter a sudden Ukrainian increase in air power.
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  2620. Consider the Stoics epitaph: I was not, I was, I am not, I do not care. Stoicism has been around for a good portion of written human history. Before I was conceived, I had no death anxiety that I can remember. I cannot remember anything from that time, no pain, no fear. If death returns me to that state, then I will not be in pain nor fear. I will not be at all. This is a basis for not dreading death. People may dread the moments before death, because that can be a time of pain and fear of loss of those close to you. It is a truly humane thing to be helpful to someone in that time. Consider that many have given their lives for a better life for the rest of us. When someone holds religion out to you, do you see a con man? Do you see someone building a survival for themselves that gets them out of the kind of labor the rest of us have to face day after day? I think I have run into that a lot, someone who may have started out sincere but then doubts yet must go on in their manner of survival. Or someone with no conscience who is not troubled by using religion to make a nice place for themselves in the world. The proposal of Christianity is stunning: "He who has My commandments and keeps them, he it is who loves Me, and he who loves Me shall be loved by My Father, and I will love him, and We will come and make Our home with him." Make Our home with him? That is something that perhaps each person can test, some possible Being to argue with and challenge to become authentic in one's life. "Here is a true Israelite, in whom there is nothing false." One can have that argument quite apart from an institution that asks for your money. I have never died before, so I cannot speak from experience. I encourage anyone to discern the con man in religion. I encourage everyone to test the proposal of Christianity. You can get a Bible for free. Be skeptical with it. But also be open to the possible Being. Start the argument. See what happens.
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  2636. It's wealth distributed upwardly that has a hard time getting a share of the best investments. Of course, the housing market should correct if demand goes down, but what we see is an investment community that can afford to sit on empty buildings. They would rather leave a building empty and in good condition and look for a buyer for the whole thing, than drop rents and get the building occupied. It's a sign of an oligarchy that cannot figure out how to better activate its wealth. What they for sure are not doing is pushing Congress to raise the minimum wage or support unions. Foreign money has also been coming into Florida, buying properties that are being converted from family ownership to corporate ownership. It's also codes intended to make buildings safer and more efficient, but the codes also make the buildings more expensive. Here again an oligarchy is going to oppose a local government trying to incentivize affordable housing next to high rent buildings and condominiums. The incumbent interests want to keep their property at a high sale price. That's their nest egg or fortune on the line. They are going to show up when the planning commission posts a potential high rise with 400sf to 600sf studio apartments. On top of that now enter climate change, the forbidden words in Florida State government. The Governor can try to get people to put their heads in the sand, but the insurance companies have money on the line, and they are watching the costs of claims and the ramifications of sea level rise and more and stronger hurricanes. This is new, and only the best buildings are ready for it. The right roof is a big factor. Strapped down, metal covered hip roofs keep a lid on the premiums. My property insurance went down from $12,000 per year to $7500 with added tie down straps and a new cover. Remember all the blue tarps after Frances and Jeane? The insurance companies do not want to go back to that. The buildings and infrastructure of Florida going forward need to be rugged and designed for quick recovery from wind and flood. Personally, I think the future of Florida lies in abandoning the lowest elevations and moving that dirt to make higher new elevations for new construction. The result will be a Florida with thousands of high rent Keys. There will be new codes for constructing islands and buildings that can continue to climb upward as necessary.
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  2643.  @ronaldgreene5733  I find the Russian regime more belligerent than the Ukrainian. While Ukraine gave up any ability to end the world with nuclear weapons in the interest of peace, Russia of course, along with the US, insists on retaining that capability. I can respect that the Russian people as a whole share human characteristics with the people of other nations, good and bad. But I take Putin's longevity in office as a negative, along with his imprisonment of serious political opponents. I also think border states such as Finland and Sweden are well aware of the KGB/FSB/Russian foreign policy style of reasoning and have determined that Russian leadership has gone round the bend, and that they need Western help keeping their houses intact. I have read Alexander Solzhenitsyn's "Gulag Archipelago." I don't sense any magic level of innocence in the Russian culture. Nor do I sense innocence in American foreign policy. I have read "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man". I listen to and read Noam Chomsky and others, so I am aware debt traps set by corporate interests along the lines you describe and other American misbehaviors. This is why I see crime and corruption as part of the human condition that no nation has conquered. The interesting thing about America is that I believe I have better access to dissenting voices than people in Russia do. I appreciate your attempt to elevate the YouTube conversation. We are out here poking consciences. The challenge is to understand logic and present sound and valid arguments. The tragedy is that large sectors of humanity have no interest in making such arguments. From within your own world view, do average souls such as ourselves have any material influence on what human leadership is doing? Do think that I, as an American, may actually have more agency than a citizen of any other nation?
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  2666. I don't know that troops that did multiple tours see it quite the same way as single tour generals who put in a year see it. Did any overall mission commander who served in Afghanistan strenuously volunteer to extend his or her tour of duty in Afghanistan if they also saw continuity of the commander as an issue? Does it really take 20 years to come up with this critique in hindsight? Bush, Obama, and Trump and their NSC's all missed this? Were Afghan Army losses over the last 5 years sustainable? I've heard they suffered over 60,000 fatalities. And the mechanism of payment of Afghan soldiers was wrong. A separate military unit with high integrity should be in charge of pay and soldiers should have to show up in person to draw their pay under those circumstances. How many Afghan prisoners did Trump send to Gitmo? McMaster did not convince me he learned much from this. The Afghan Army and its intelligence and counter-intelligence services needed to be advised to determine the quantity of provinces that they could sustainably hold, understanding those areas would be subject to Taliban espionage and hit and run strikes, and the capacity it needed to conduct espionage and hit and run warfare on the Taliban in territory it held. That might have created a sustainable stalemate with more balanced losses, creating at least a possibility of selected cease fire areas and provincial settlements. Both sides would have been on "Afghan time." But the whole matter of American "tribute" payments to Pakistan, with some of it being rerouted to the Taliban, would have had to have been minimized. Pakistan is seeing the US lean toward India, and they have to work against that for their own interests.
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  2697. If these Russian soldiers are contracted prisoners, or simply compelled prisoners, then this is Russian social engineering, using the UAF as executioner. So in some Russian leader's eye, every death of a Russian prisoner is one less bad person to feed, one less potential case of recidivism. Their space left behind in the prison can be occupied by someone speaking out against the war until that person too is sent to die. This process could go on for quite some time, while back in Russia, the privileged and lucky work in weapons factories or the other state institutions. The Russian leader sees a more compliant society ahead. He also sees he is preserving his idea of the strong people and disposing of the weak. The UAF needs to keep finding such leaders in their HQs and the back shooters they deploy to force these futile assaults. The West needs to help Ukraine develop special weapons to cripple the rail network that Russia is using to maintain its supply of artillery and other essentials. Cripple that rail system and the Russian effort would be perhaps cut in half if not more. Supply trucks need to be found by purpose-built drones at deeper ranges behind the front. This war just goes on and on as long as the Russian rail system can support it. Kim Jong Un came to visit Putin on a train. That same line can bring in thousands of 152mm from NK to Ukraine. Ukraine cannot let those shells and fresh artillery tubes get to the battle space, or it just goes on and on. Russia keeps fixing the Kerch bridge because they really need it. It's a simple clue that that bridge needs to be kept out of service.
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  2709. This does not end well for Ukraine if Putin sees Ukraine getting weaker due to lack of Western support. A decent end to the war requires Putin to see just the opposite. He needs to see that Ukraine is not going to just get a squadron or two of F-16s that his military likes to claim will be shot down in 20 days. He needs to see two entire wings of F-16s with a full set of decoys and munitions and that his trains and trucks are not getting through to his army in Ukraine in winter weather. He needs to hear that selected Ukrainian pilots are also on the long road of F-35 training and what that means for some future renewal of the invasion. And when he decides to start taking down the Ukrainian electric grid, he needs to see his own grid near and in Ukraine being taken down, again because it undergirds the logistical support of the invasion. This will put him in the dilemma of tactical nukes inviting a Western conventional response designed to further reduce logistical support of Russian forces in Ukraine. He has demonstrated that he is probably not going to use tactical nukes to change the Ukrainian regime nor accomplish objectives like taking Bakhmut or Avdiivka. If he was going to turn to nukes he would probably try to use them to hold Crimea. The slow pace of change tends to keep his finger off the nuclear button. It's not all bad. The Vietnamese spent decades working on their sovereignty. Ukraine has been at it since at least 2014. The Ukrainian Army may be in a diminshed state, but so is the Russian army. Ukraine still has a fighting spirit. Russian soldiers? Not so much. Russians can get tired, too, whatever they say.
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  2798.  @voya8480  I think you are right about Russian wheat. For humanitarian purposes, Russian wheat will be allowed to go to its usual markets. It's the oil and gas to Europe. In the long run, Europe was going with more renewable energy due to climate change. In the short run, European revenue to Russia for oil and gas is down. It's not all the way down, and it will not go all the way down. But less money for Russia means adjustments in Russia that would not be liked if revenues stayed the same or were going up. Those adjustments do not help Russia stay in this conflict. The West is just a bigger group of people with stronger economies than Russia. Like it or not, Ukraine has shown the world that it has a sense of national identity that it will fight Russia for. The Ukrainian soldier believes he is fighting invaders. His morale is higher than the Russian soldier's is. And morale matters. I don't think that high morale means Ukraine would invade Russia for any purpose other than to destroy military and logistical targets that threaten Ukraine. They have already done some of that. That forces Russia to increase protection of those targets. But at some point the Ukrainian soldier wants to go home, too. For Ukraine, the war probably ends when it considers all the Russian trespassers have left Ukraine. Maybe Russia can make that just too difficult for Ukraine in a fairly small geographic region. But if the West equips Ukraine with technological advantages that the Russian military cannot successfully counter, then the Russian military will have to leave. What Russia might do is keep the state of conflict going so it can prevent Ukrainian development of the oil and gas reserves that it recovered by ejecting the Russian military. Long range missile strikes from within Russia would force Ukraine to try to build an Iron Dome over new oil and gas facilities. That probably would just be too much trouble, and Russia would be protecting its market share for oil and gas from Ukrainian production. Russia does this in other places in a different way like Venezuela that used to produce 3 million barrels a day of oil, but now produces less than 1 million per day. Russia wants to keep oil prices high. OPEC countries want the same. But California, the most populated state in the US, had its first 100% renewable energy hour on its electric grid. They did not need to burn natural gas to meet peak load. That means more American and Canadian gas available for LNG shipment to Europe. That is the trend going forward. Climate change does not favor Russian oil and gas going forward, but more of Russian land may become useful for growing wheat which the world will need. Russia's ports will have less days closed due to ice. Spending money on this conflict is reducing Russia's ability to adjust to climate change. Countries that adjust successfully to climate change provide a good future for their people. Those that do not, not so good for their people. Bring your boys home, sir. There is important work for them to do.
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  2894. Negotiations have to result in at least medium-term (10 to 20 years) stability, or they are useless. Look at the Budapest Memorandum. There was a lot of hand wringing about Ukraine's custody of Soviet nuclear weapons. Russia got a great deal. Ukraine was disarmed of those weapons. Stability for Ukraine in the future means allied forces in country or a Ukrainian nuclear arsenal or both. Those are non-starters for Russia. This conflict ends in armistice, like Korea. The trouble is that Russia is not being pounded like North Korea was. It's taken NK decades to get to a nuclear arsenal. Russia will be able to gravely threaten Ukraine again in a few years. Paper assurances from Russia like the Budapest Memorandum have been proven useless. But they do put all parties on notice as to what the items on the table were and could be again. What's going on here is an attempt to get Russia weakened to the point it has no practical way to prevent allied forces from gradually entering Ukraine and stabilizing areas well behind the front. Ukrainian air defense can continue to be strengthened. F16s with Ukrainian paint will sometimes have allied contract pilots of high skill. Ukraine is going on defense for as long as Russia chooses to try to advance. That addresses the disparity in relative populations. Offensive warfare requires more exposure to drone observation than defensive warfare. Ukraine can focus on pipeline and tunnel systems to strengthen their defense. Russia might finally decide that "mass" is just not working out, but right now they think a break is just around the corner, so they keep using mass. It looks like Putin's political needs are the deciding factors. I expect the Russians to go totally maniacal in the next few weeks to meet Putin's political needs. They might get that "break" in Avdiivka. Maybe not.
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  2898.  @inozz4c  Russia has left Ukraine no alternative. If the supply of weapons is ended without a cease fire and partial withdrawal, then Russia will be advantaged and will expand its control. The supply of weapons preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and most of its territory. The supply of weapons, by causing attrition of Russian forces in Ukraine, actually accelerates the day those forces are exhausted and sets the stage for a cease fire. Russian leadership has demonstrated for 8 years that they are determined to impose their jurisdiction on as much of Ukraine as they can. The war has been prolonged by choice by Russia, because its position is that it will perpetually attempt to acquire Ukraine. A nation with as much land and food as Russia that still engages in the violent expansion of its territory deserves strong opposition. Yes, this is a very vicious situation. Every day the US says Putin could stop this war. But Putin demonstrates he is quite willing to expend his forces and, as much as he can insulate the Russian population from the consequences. OK. It's YouTube. You get to lobby for your side. But consider the image of your side that you are perpetuating and ask what are the long term consequences of making unbalanced proposals. Whatever happens in Ukraine, the long term consequence is that Putin will face a more militarized and adversarial Europe for the rest of his life, and his successor is also likely to face that. Was not life better when billions of Euros of were coming into Russian banks for oil and gas? Was not life better when interventions were carried out on such a more subtle level that Western corporations were just fine being a part of the Russian economy and generating progress. Instead, Russia suffers due to its intransigence.
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  2899.  @inozz4c  Fair points you make. Mearsheimer makes some good points, but I think he makes some bad ones, too, or just neglects to consider other important factors. True, one can only say so much in an hour. Russia has more land area than any other nation, and with a relatively small population. I grant that much of this land is not arable. Climate change may increase the amount of arable land in Russia, or perhaps just slide it north. Climate change may not be good for Ukrainian agriculture. I think this is a very important forecast for Russia to understand and talk to the world about, because much of the world relies on Russia for wheat, fertilizer, and other food. Russia has been demonstrating forecasting of climate change impacts with respect to planning military facilities for Arctic operations. This is to say that I don't think Russia needs Ukraine for Russia itself to be a flourishing country. If Russia simply held its 1994 borders, NATO membership might grow, but that does not mean that NATO would take land within those borders from Russia. If Russia simply held its 1994 borders, it would not be experiencing any sanctions at all, and likely would have continued to increase its wealth, even perhaps to the point that wealth inequality within the country might be better addressed. Historians often point to the classical routes of invasions from the West as a rationale for Russian geopolitics. I say Russia's 6500 nuclear warheads have dramatically made the notion of any existing Western European nation invading Russia patently absurd, rendering the historical geopolitical environment invalid. Nuclear weapons change geopolitics. Western European behavior has been to concentrate government budgets much more on social well being than defense. The US has been criticizing Western Europe on this subject for a long time, suffering in many domestic issue while Western Europe has the funds to better address those same issues, such as national health care. The perspective that "Biden" can stop the war implies that the US is the only significant player Russia faces in this conflict. The United States does not conduct the level of trade with Russia that Germany did. Russia may be gaining land full of destroyed buildings in Ukraine, but it is losing hard currency from Germany every day. Russia has proved it can miscalculate. It may be miscalculating the German people as much as the Ukrainians. The general consensus among the knowledgeable is that all governments are oppressive, but Russia is among the worst when it comes to forcing its citizens to mind their words very carefully. This sets up a spiral of poor morale, an unusual level of alcoholism, and self-defeat, and this has been made evident by the poor performance of a large, well equipped Russian military that should have won this war by now even in the face of the very gradual arming of Ukraine by the West. I have no doubt the FSB and other internal security agencies of Russia are ready to impose Russian jurisdiction on the totality of Ukraine, because they are the primary beneficiaries of the Russian system. They set up a system that talented middle class people seek to escape, forcing security services to focus on people try to leave the country. Bad as people may thing the US is, we have a problem with many people trying to get into our country. What seems to be at the root of Russian leadership dysfunction is a predominance of psychopathic values within it. These values explain the otherwise seemingly senseless need for periodic victories over its international neighbors, e.g. Donald Trump touting to his followers "We are going to win so much, you are going to get sick of winning." Yes, psychopathy is everywhere. The average citizen in the US has minimal power, but they do have a vote and they have an absurd number of guns. Russian leadership very much seems to lack the checks and balances that would improve the lot of average people. And there it is, much of my case for why it should be Russia that ends the war now and starts reforming its government and rebuilding what trade it can with the West. But I am not holding my breath.
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  2902. The GOP would quickly enact projects in Greenland and import enough GOP voters to turn it into a red state. The natives could soon find themselves in the minority. I am thinking mining companies, construction companies, and some US military personnel declaring domicile in the State of Greenland. Alaska is perhaps the best model of what might happen politically. It has the US' lowest population density at 1.3 persons per square mile. That would put a future settled Greenland at about a population 1 million maximum, but probably not even half that. Greenland would thus have one House Representative and two Senators just like Alaska, and in Alaska, they are all Republicans in those offices today. They may be moderate Republicans, but Republicans, nevertheless. There is some possibility that native influence might moderate the red immigrants if the latter do not come in sufficient numbers. Robotics would be very tempting in Greenland mining and construction operations, thinning the human labor pool. But the Alaskan model remains relevant. This can also be a part of an overall global turf deal with Russia and China. Trump seems to have a North American vision here that skips over Mexico and Central America until one gets to the northern border of his idea of a new US Panama Canal Zone. He sees water barriers as still effective political boundaries. China and Russia have built influence in the Americas, and they can put those cards on the table to make a deal with Trump. The grand vision for Russia appears to be the assimilation of Europe and the Mediterranean. China and Russia would be left to divide the rest of Africa and the Middle East. The Subcontinent and South America get to be their own thing. Australia and the Pacific Islands are assimilated by China. There would be the five poles of the multi-polar world. Trump believes in climate change. His vision assumes increasing habitability in Greenland and Canada. If he thinks Russia will eventually assimilate Denmark, but acknowledge the American interest in Greenland, his legacy gets Greenland for free. He just needs to stake the US claim and maintain the military presence to secure it.
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  2916. I remember in engineering college the emphasis on modeling systems on paper and, if possible, in computer simulation before you build them, because it is cheaper to find a problem and fix it then. More powerful computers and software can and have improved modeling. If you rush the modeling process, then you are just asking for trouble later on. Of course, prototypes are also very valuable for rooting out things the modeling process may have missed but rushing that as well compounds the potential problems down the road. It happens again and again with automobile recalls. And although I am not an aeronautical engineer, I do somewhat wonder about the fix of adding another AOA sensor as enough to rule out the problem. If an AOA has a obscure vulnerability, both AOAs might fail when presented with that vulnerability. If you have a computer controlling the envelope, then why wouldn't airspeed and altimeter indications, even pilot vitals of some kind like asking the crew to reply with a word, show the program that continuing to pitch the nose is going to take the plane into the ground? It seems to me that the software still is not thorough in modeling and coping with near envelope scenarios. I mean, once MCAS starts a stall correction, should it not have a time parameter that is the outer boundary of how long a stall takes to be corrected and give control back to the pilot if MCAS cannot correct the stall? There just seems to be all kinds of parameters available to be checked and indicate to the program and pilots that some parameter has become untrustworthy and nullify its input. It sounds like this AOA addition is still a safety feature quick fix instead of a thorough modeling of the aircraft envelope and writing the software accordingly. I can imagine this is a huge task requiring many more lines of code and the computer processing power to cope with that (a testament to the value of a pilot), but public confidence in air travel should be the foundation of the business. As we can see, it not always is for those in leadership.
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  2927. What keeps getting denied here is the agency of the Ukrainian people, or the agency of any nation of people bordering Russia. Russian empathy for Ukraine may be at an all-time low, although the Holodomor might be considered worse. If Ukraine had been in NATO as of the Budapest Memorandum, the current war would probably not have happened. Finland wasn't going to wait to be invaded or have its border rendered unsettled and thus be disqualified from NATO membership. NATO is not a threat to Russian security. NATO is a threat to Russian imperial expansion. And it is Russian expansion that has been going on since 2008. If NATO is dominated by the US, then that in large measure is a result the choice by other NATO members to spend less of their GDP on defense than the US. It is entirely within the capacity of non-US NATO members to establish the European community as the dominant influence, and I don't think the American public would oppose that at all. Russia repeatedly calls attention to "world war" and its nuclear arsenal. One way to interpret that is that they realize they have bit off more than they can chew in Ukraine and they would like to freeze the lines and consolidate power over their new occupied territories. They are trying to terrify the community of nations opposing their expansion. They have escalated tensions. The European community of recent decades has clearly been content to leave Russian borders as they are. Nuclear weapons have dramatically altered the geopolitics of Europe, and pointing to Hitler or Napoleon or the British Empire of the past has been rendered moot. The rule or the principle here is that a nation's border is just that. The people on the foreign side of it should have their own agency. America has lived with presidents for life with Soviet/Russian backing in Latin America: Castro, Chavez, Ortega. Any American who really wants to see the southern border sealed up probably sees an opportunity to do just that if Chinese and Russian interests expanded in Mexico. But I don't know that Mexicans would chafe against Chinese and Russian imperialism any less than American imperialism.
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  2934. I think the captain and crew would appreciate two to four CIWS or similar be included for final self-defense. It is a lot of eggs in one basket for a submarine to take out. There would have to be a sensible unit cost for the missiles. It looks like another ship for asymmetric conflicts where the other side has no significant capability to take it out. In planning for a peer conflict, losses must be assumed. That always favors distributing offensive weapons to as many separate platforms as possible. In my field of electrical engineering, it is called sectionalization, something the Ukrainians have increased to maintain electric power to more services when generators and substations are under attack. It's good to do brainstorming like this because it can bring about serendipitous improvements. It does look like it could be a concept for mothballed heavy hulls that might be economical (funny how that often does not work out). There are places of hybrid warfare in the world, like contested economic zones, where a ship that can ram a thin hulled ship has some utility. It keeps bringing one back to what a good, versatile ship the Arleigh Burke is. The interest seems to be paring those capabilities down to frigate scale so you can have more of that capability more distributed. When a frigate gets taken out, there is less loss of life and weaponry than when a destroyer is taken out. I suppose the everyday challenge is for a frigate to match the habitability of a destroyer, simple things like being able to sleep well when there is a lot of pitching. Good conditions at sea can help retain more of a good crew and keep them in a better state of readiness.
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  2951. Admirable of DN and this physician to present this story. He's an honorable man to have gone there to help. He told us what he saw, and I believe him. But DN doesn't tell both sides here. They frame the story at the beginning as Israel's attack on Gaza, rather than Israel's attack on Hamas. DN can state both perspectives, but they don't. Hamas, to the best of my knowledge, has no defined military bases on the surface for Israel to attack. Hamas is using human shields in urban warfare, knowing full well that civilian casualties will occur and leveraging those casualties in a public relations campaign to seek the unilateral disarmament of Israel, which of course would serve Hamas interests. Disarmament talks in the region need to involve Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah as well as Israel. However, this conflict, and both sides blaming the other for not accepting an internationally brokered cease-fire agreement, reveals deep hate and remorselessness on both sides. When a peacemaking effort like this fails, the international community faces the prospect of international armed intervention. I doubt any military in the world is eager to engage in the urban security operations that would be needed to quell the fighting. You have to admire Kenya for sending troops to try to calm things down in Haiti. Egypt and Jordan have significant militaries, but so far have stayed out of this aspect of ending the violence. It looks like outside forces are needed in Gaza to establish safe zones for civilians and keep Hamas fighters and the IDF out of those safe zones. They need to fight out their hate somewhere else. The United States is uniquely situated for such a mission, but I am confident the Pentagon sees it as a potential disaster for US armed forces. Hamas would attack American troops, and the IDF isn't past unintended, accidental friendly fire. The US would have to use Gazans as human shields as well. It is conceivable, however, that the US could set up medical and humanitarian airlifts of people to safer places. In-country medical treatment could also be improved. Lots of people are calling this genocide. The definition of genocide makes it pretty easy to declare. Certainly depriving a doctor willing to enter Gaza to render aid the supplies he brought with him is detestable and yes, genocidal conduct, even if he used them to treat Hamas fighters. I would point out that in many ways, the IDF is superior to the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. Those two militaries inflict hundreds of casualties per day on each other. If the IDF was out to kill Gazans en masse, they have the capacity to do that. They are not killing civilians on the scale that they could. Repeatedly, spokespersons for Gazans make no mention of Hamas fighter casualties when they report numbers. This is a plain deception, and discredits Hamas and those reporting casualties. Together with the refusal to grudgingly accept the internationally brokered cease fire, this conduct reduces sympathy for the humanity involved on both sides. It smacks of outside forces having their interests advanced by continuing the conflict. P.S. The U.S., with its carrier and other aircraft in the region, can supplement the defense of Israel to the extent that supplies of JP-8 military fuel to Israel could be reduced. Israel does not have sufficient refining capacity to make its own JP-8. Such action could temper Israeli air strikes on Hamas without seriously diminishing the defense of Israel. The US could keep JP-8 nearby for the prompt resupply of Israel should it come under attack by Hezbollah and/or Iran. So there is also this way for the US to restrain Israel.
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  2952. The advent of drone warfare has made a Black Sea Fleet of surface ships in the classical sense almost obsolete. Missile submarines in the Black Sea can still be effective, but in time naval drones in the air, on the surface, and underwater will increasingly threaten manned submarines. The Black Sea is not a vast place for a surface ship to hide in. Larger task forces with heavy anti-drone systems may have a chance, but the financial asymmetry of expensive ships vs. cheap drones works against that kind of approach. You can believe whatever you want to about who blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam. It's destroyed. Its supply of fresh water to Crimea is cut off. Russia is not conducting its war in any serious manner to take the territory necessary to restore the dam and the water supply. Russia's loss of control of the most strategic aspects of the Kherson Oblast is a clear indication of the inadequacy of the Russian military. Desalination plants may be practical for providing fresh water to a civilian population in Crimea, but they are not practical for agriculture or industries that require large amounts of fresh water. What the world sees now is that Russia and China engaged in trade with the West with the purpose of increasing their military power for territorial expansion and the autocratic consolidation of political power by Putin and Xi, lifelong rulers. The West has witnessed the seizure of Hong Kong, the oppression of the Uighurs, and the invasion of Ukraine. The West is now engaged in "de-risking" its economic relationships with China and Russia. Whatever sense of infallibility that golden era of trade created in Russia and China is likely to be moderated in the future.
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  3007. The plan to push out the best federal civil servants and replace them with loyalists (or no one) is proceeding. This is an opportunity for corporations and State and local governments to hire some very good people. I don't know if Mr. Trump has considered how State power, being enhanced by having a surge of quality employees, might expand in ways that increase State autonomy at the expense of his power. Perhaps it is his plan to foster internal migration, the alignment of politically allied States, and a defederalization of the United States into smaller entities. Sounds like something out of the Cold War playbook. A quiet chat between the President and his new Treasury Secretary would seem to be in order, or those who lend to the United States may begin to lose confidence. I think that chat would be incentivized by the Secretary noting that States are starting to plan for greater autonomy. Think back to the Articles of Confederation. The Constitution was intended to empower the nation's finances without a king. If the Constitutional checks and balances keep failing to work, then the backup plan is the States for governance. Wealthy as he may be, Elon Musk is in no position to underwrite anything much more than a hermit kingdom for Mr. Trump, and he can kiss his space program goodbye. President Trump's policies are putting the full faith and credit of the United States into question. That is unconstitutional, but does any Republican in office or Justice of the Supreme Court care about that anymore?
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  3020. While Trump's movement may have some cultish aspect, I think Democrats who focus on that exacerbate division in the country. My read of the MAGA movement is that it does not understand that America has the world's largest economy because it is a global economic player, and therefore our State and Defense and other Departments are going to have a global presence. Russia does. China does. The pool of nations we can do business with is vital to the American economy. They don't understand that leaders like Putin and Xi can expand their turf and keep American economic players off of it. That's what is going on in Ukraine, and that is what Xi wants to do with Taiwan. I think there is a part of the MAGA movement that would be fine with a smaller American economy if that meant less taxes, less public debt and fewer American military casualties. If they thought a little more about it, they would assert that really the only proper deployment of American forces is on our land borders with Mexico and Canada and the Alaskan and Hawaiian coasts. Any other place is "none of our business". At some point they would soon be in the position of early America and realize they need a navy to protect whatever American foreign trade is left from pirates or worse. I could go on with why America is the way it is, but my point is that well-spoken leaders like Representative Raskin could do more for the country by explaining why the federal government does what it does for the happiness of American people (at least some of them). Calling them cultists doesn't help if we don't hold out the truth in a discernable fashion. Raskin is the kind of speaker that can make clear, sound arguments to the American people.
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  3077.  @Itsme-vo4fx  I have had my version of that climb. I started in a barracks. I don't complain for myself. I am an employer now. I just notice how there is a lack of discussion of the competent design of jobs. Isn't it rather rude to deliberately design a job that cannot provide: 1) A safe place to sleep with clean air at a reasonable temperature, a bath room with clean water and sewer service to maintain hygiene and public health (yes, electricity is a luxury) i.e. be it ever so humble, there is no place like home. An employer who designs a job must consider the cost of shelter within walking or bicycle riding distance or public transportation that a person can afford. Rents are going up faster than wages. 2) Affordable health care, because sooner or later everyone needs some. 3) Enough money to maintain the equivalent of a load of laundry's worth of clothing and able to store it in 1); 4) Shoes that protect feet from puncture and slipping. 5) Food and a place to store it. Is refrigeration asking too much? Is a 800W microwave too much? 6) A nearby park or other area of assembly for social interaction, like basketball or chess or a picnic table with friends. Access to a library. I suppose a spouse and children are luxuries in a sense. I did not have a spouse until I was 29. I think I get the whole personal responsibility thing. If an employer does not do much better than their employees with respect to income, well, my hat is off to them. In the book "Small is Beautiful" a CEO to lowest wage worker ratio of 3:1 was proposed. Imagine that. What I don't respect is the employer who devalues his help to enrich himself.
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  3091. When it comes to occupied territories, financial settlements with the specific people or estates that suffered or will suffer loss might be the more practical way to go. Somebody who took out a mortgage or paid for a house in occupied territory is relying on the State of Israel to defend their title to the property. Eminent domain might compel them to leave, but they should get fair market value for their house. And Palestinians have to be sorted out as to just who or which estates have a right to obtain title or financial compensation. It just doesn't start out as a free, new house for some Palestinian family. There may well be a set of Palestinians with no specific property rights at all because they have no link to property rights in developed, occupied territory. It really needs to get very specific. All we hear are broad claims of Palestinian rights. Who actually has standing? If this is going toward a legal, court-based settlement, which is good, then all principles of law should apply. "Taking" is very much involved here. The UN demarcations in Resolution 181 looked impractical to contemporaries. History has proved them correct. Governments have purchased land, e.g., Alaska, Gadsden, Louisiana. Given the billions of dollars the US has provided to Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, perhaps the exchange of tracts of land to provide a larger and more contiguous Palestine is the way to go. Gaza could be bigger than it is, extending more into adjacent Israel and Egypt. It is waterfront property. All states could get at least a corridor to the Red Sea. The Houthis seem to be establishing the idea that Egypt isn't the only nation on the Red Sea that should be collecting revenue for use of this global shipping route. Freedom of the seas is a government subsidy. There are interests that benefit from the chaos, e.g. Iran. This area is seen by many in the region as a part of the Islamic empire. Their vision is that the region be entirely under Islamic jurisdiction. But one might note how Americans are called upon to accept migrants, while the Arab position in Palestine has been to violently oppose Jewish immigration. Perhaps a future erosion of Islamic and Jewish dogmatism similar to increasing atheism in the West will moderate attitudes about diversity in the region. I think Palestinians need homes they can finally settle down in and build a decent future. The US has paid dearly for leverage here. A large percentage of Americans are ready to pull out and leave things to whatever violent fate may ensue. They just want out and to keep US money in the US (and much of the aid money goes straight to US defense contractors). Naturally, Israel, Egypt, and Jordan would like to see money and/or weapons keep coming in. They may not be excited about looking to China, Russia, and Iran for that aid, but if the US pulls out, then there they will go. The US should not just pull the rug out from under Israel, but Israel needs to see that it has attracted too much attention to itself and needs to adjust. I don't know that Israel is going to recognize this UN claim of a type of eminent domain, but they need to reconsider their long-term vision that someday enough Palestinians will accept their circumstances.
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  3096. The great threat to the peaceful protester is the likes of the Minneapolis masked "Umbrella Man", someone who seeks to discredit a peaceful protest by damaging property and inciting violence. I did not hear the Governor announce any enhanced sentencing for those found guilty of such acts. I am also concerned that localities that make even modest adjustments to broaden public safety capabilities outside of police budgets could also be subjected to "Umbrella Man" type subversions designed to instigate State intervention. I did not hear of enhanced sentencing for those found guilty of that crime. And then there is the practical issue that enforcement is inevitably selective and incomplete, giving insurgents of any stripe, left or right, up or down, a continuing reasonable probability of successfully discrediting a peaceful protest and getting away with it. In light of subversives amongst us, left or right, law enforcement's attempt at reassuring us that we retain the right to peaceably assemble for redress of grievances rings a bit more hollow with this legislation. The sane Floridian will restrict their objections to the virtual world and the written opinion page, which already seems able to amplify dissent without itself being violent, though some may be incited. Those who want to physically, peacefully protest, need to include the capacity to detect, track, and assist law enforcement with detaining subversives, or risk having their cause discredited and themselves subjected to escalation of violence by the government response. Hand held video capability has very much changed things, and it needs to continue to be harnessed to preserve rights and ferret out insurgents.
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  3102. Russia has to consider China's interest in the Arctic of the future as well as China's economic and expanding military power. China's capacity to develop and manage resources is likely to increase its influence in eastern Russia. China is likely to carry out this expansion of influence very incrementally, yet purposefully because of its own needs and interests. A highly sanctioned Russia will have little choice but to accept some of this expansion of Chinese power in exchange for Chinese purchases of Russian resources. Look at the advantages that China seeks for itself in terms of technology transfer as an example. I propose this is a factor in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, because Ukraine for a very long time will be too far a reach for China compared to Moscow. Russia may assess that overall, seizing land for power makes more sense near western Russia than eastern. Nuclear arsenal metrics aside, Russian hubris in its actions is clear, but Russian leadership perspective is based on successive victories in the expansion of its power, not international cooperation in a context of climate change. Russia has a vain concept of its capacity, and it also seems to a vain concept of China's capacity or willingness to buttress Russian capacity. Reality is facing Russia with a dilemma. It is not acquiring the power Putin thought it would acquire by invading Ukraine to offset the rise of Chinese power. The West is doing what it can to present Putin with a very grim, long-term future. But Putin, like Trump, has trouble processing loss. He seems to always be chasing some silver lining he sees. I don't know that public discussion on how this sorts out for China might get Putin's attention in time to consider how his losses in Ukraine could accelerate Russia's loss of power to China, but it might be worth a try.
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  3141. As far as the history of Ukraine, Ms. Benjamin did not mention the Holodomor. That's like discussing the history of Israel without mentioning the Holocaust. My Ukrainian friends have mentioned the Holodomor to me as an historical event that is still a part of Ukrainian consciousness. By the way, my Ukrainian friends speak Russian because, well, their families not so long ago had no choice. As far as the history of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, Ms. Benjamin did not mention the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (yes, something got codified) in which the parties, including the UK, agreed that hundreds of former Soviet nuclear weapons possessed by Ukraine would be turned over to Russia in exchange for Russian recognition and respect for the Ukrainian border. This was a huge concession to and recognition of Russian security interests that Russia enjoys to this day. Ukraine is not enjoying much at all in exchange. (Note the US MIC would have been very happy to be paid by the US government to make those weapons usable by Ukraine, but that did not happen). The US and UK pledged in writing to support the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Russia therefore was provided with written notice of just what might be happening today if Russia did not respect Ukrainian borders. As far as the history of Russia and its neighbors, are those neighbors granted any agency to make foreign policy decisions? James Baker had no authority to speak for any of them. Just what are these neighbors supposed to do when faced with 6500 Russian nuclear warheads, and a large Russian army backed by a population of 145 million? If they want to maintain sovereignty, then the logical choice is to form or join a defense alliance. NATO was an experienced alliance at hand. Nations apply for NATO membership, they do not get expanded into by the US, although certainly the US and Russia exert influence on these nations. That's three points I have made. I find this talk a bit too sympathetic to Russian interests, which are just as imperial as US interests and European interests in Ukraine, which have a lot to do with oil and gas discoveries in Ukraine that might have provided competitive options for European purchases. I guess that's out the window for some time. Was Putin's plan to stimulate US oil and gas exports at a time of scarcity and high prices and profits? Many who have followed this war have predicted that Russia would initiate a PR campaign for negotiation if Russia started losing more Ukrainian territory. Here is that campaign. I'll let the English-speaking Russian elite buy Ms. Benjamin's book.
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  3269. "NATO enlargement", as asserted by Russian leadership, is pretext for Russia reserving the right to incrementally annex neighboring territory in service to that leadership's psychological need for recurring victory and the nostalgic restoration of the Soviet empire. This is how Russia has observably behaved. Russia's small neighbors are vitally interested in stable borders. Russia does have a practical interest in expanding its power and population to contain an increasingly powerful Chinese empire. Russia is so afraid of that future it does not dare speak of China as an opponent. What Russia needed to be doing is building a more practical and peaceful cooperation with the West to be successful in that containment. Instead, Russian leadership's psychological tendencies have trumped its true strategic interests. Professor Sachs also needs to reconsider his perspective on the utility of the Sevastopol naval base for the Russian Navy. Even the limited Ukrainian use of naval and aerial drones and land-based anti-ship missiles has revealed the vulnerability of large, non-stealth surface combatant ships. Russia had deployed amphibious capabilities in preparation for the seizure of Odessa. They failed, even though they had Sevastopol and even though they were not simultaneously being fired upon at all by NATO naval capabilities. Ukraine essentially has no conventional surface combatant fleet. Yet, Russia does not dominate the Black Sea, and going forward, it is unlikely that any of the nations that have Black Sea coast, will dominate the Black Sea by relying on surface combatants. Russian nuclear attack submarines have more than adequate range to assert Russian interests in the Black Sea and beyond, and they do not need Sevastopol. Russian thinking about Crimea is archaic in the naval sense. It is forward thinking in the sense that it has stolen Crimean offshore energy resources from Ukraine. See YouTube video "Russia's Catastrophic Oil & Gas Problem". Professor Sachs buys into the Russian ethnicity narrative. However, the Russian government has jurisdiction over dozens of various ethnicities within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation. By Russia's own example, it should not be considered unusual that Ukrainian jurisdiction might encompass ethnic Russians. This narrative is again, pretext. Russia deported non-Russian ethnicities from Crimea and Ukraine and is still doing so to create this fact on the ground that they use to persuade folks like Professor Sachs that Russia is just trying to defuse ethnic tensions. Russia has done utterly the opposite by alienating the Ukrainian people, the great majority of whom still survive. The timing of this piece coincides with Russia's deteriorating situation. Far from miscalculating, the US administration stated that sanctions and other economic actions would take time to have their effects. Putin's misfortune is that the Fed is raising interest rates, calming the world economy and inflation, and the price of Russia's premier export, oil, is getting below $70/bbl. Export earnings have fueled Russian influence all over the world, and that influence wanes when the money gets tight. Putin wants to go into a negotiation in which he hangs onto all the land currently under the Russian army's control, in which Ukraine doesn't get a defense treaty with anyone, in which all of his seized assets are returned, in which all trade is resumed, in which Ukraine's ability to acquire foreign weaponry is curtailed, and that the burden of reconstruction of Ukraine falls entirely on the West and Ukraine. This would, of course, set up Ukraine for further Russian encroachment by a refinanced and re-invigorated Russian military. In exchange Putin offers not to start WWIII and to temporarily tone down his ongoing insurgency in regions near his recent annexations because, well, he has lost a large number of his insurgents. Professor Sachs steers well clear of Putin's actual demands because they are absurd under the circumstances of the fight. Russian leadership can and should be taken to the point where they see that they have an opportunity to return to economic growth, but otherwise leave the internationally recognized jurisdiction of Ukraine completely and accept that, based on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, US and UK military support of Ukraine will be much more robust going forward. So robust, in fact, that another invasion or even insurgency is deterred. The bickering can be over the disposition of seized Russian assets. Professor Sachs suggests that the sanctions and asset seizures have been a miscalculation. So I suppose the Russians have no problem with those assets rebuilding Ukraine in exchange for their military losses coming to an end. I think even the Russians are starting to disagree with Professor Sachs. They need the price of oil to go up, and they need their money back. All they need to do is stop shooting and go home.
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  3281. We don't know the truth about Putin's rationality. A published set of authentic brain scans might help. And we are not going to get that, are we? Rational thought starts with Socrates: I know that I know nothing. Humility. Not hubris. Imagine if Russian military planning had started with that realization. I don't see humility in Putin. Nor do I see neurotypical remorse in Putin. (Is conscience disdained as weak, something to manipulate?) I watched a video of Gorbachev say of Putin, "He is always right." Fortunately for Gorbachev he must have been taken literally. As far as I know the man died in peace. What a breath of fresh air they were, Gorby and Raisa holding hands. "Thank God!" we exclaimed, "They are not all grouchy!" Given the results of Russia's military planning to date, why should Russia think it will figure out a successful plan for "the long-term endurance war"? Was it really that hard to discern that European nations had bet on US military support? It had gone on so long, the average American knew about it and felt taken advantage of by socialist European countries and voted Trump into office to shake that up. The political dependence was obvious to the average American, but not to Vladimir Putin? And somehow the plan was not to put a bullet in Zelensky's head, but just rough him up Russian-style until he signs to vacate the Budapest Memorandum and agree to all of Russia's new terms? And is it rational to underestimate? Isn't it rational to overestimate risks and over plan for them to be more assured of victory? This war is not some kind of Western success. In the face of climate change, this war is a tragedy for the planet and the human species. History is not repeating. We are on a linear, self-destructive course. For thousands of families, this war is a trauma, a source of great grief, unfelt by Mr. Putin. As an engineer, I watched a Russian engineer describe his work. I respected his demonstrated competence, and his responsible manner. Here was a man that had learned to work with the real world that does not respect lies. I will credit Russian leadership for allowing some of its citizens to develop into engineers. Of course, they do this to increase national power. But what I was seeing, was a Russian citizen of integrity, and I wish his country was run by men like him. Because if it was, this would be a better world.
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  3301.  @jackwolfski  The tragedy here is that Russia had a plentiful stream of market price oil and gas revenue from Europe and elsewhere, undiscounted, to fund its own robust adjustment to climate change. With more land area under its jurisdiction than any other nation, but with a population a fraction of that of China or India, it forfeits much of that revenue stream to acquire more land and people, Ukraine. What a terrible price for the world to pay for Russia's nostalgia, narcissism, and human will to power. There is very little that can be done about past US errors other than financial settlements with families of the dead and trying not to repeat the same errors. In the present, it is Russia forfeiting a brighter future for the world and itself, and killing thousands on its way to whatever waypoint it achieves in its ultimate plan for Ukraine. No neighbor of Russia is obliged to passively await assimilation. Russia's brandishing of "devastating effects" to compel it's adversaries to make concessions is practically a confession of depravity. The United States has hesitated to rhetorically reciprocate, stepping back from its own depravity. We might give the US credit for that. By international law, Russian warships and aircraft can sail or fly right up to the 12 mile territorial water boundary of the United States. And they do that, with supporting airfields and ports of call available in Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and elsewhere. Tactically this has been providing Russian missiles quick access into our airspace for decades, and we have reciprocated with similar missions. To me, this kind of Russian border sensitivity argument seems more a rhetorical device to groom neighbors and the world for Russian assimilation of those neighbors, i.e. recovery from the "geopolitical disaster of the 20th century". Russia's power is already way out of its proportion of the human population. Perhaps in that sense it is similar to the US. China and India are upping their weight militarily. The Monroe Doctrine has effectively been dissolved over time by the relationships major powers have established with Central and South American nations. The publicly espoused American doctrine has shifted to sovereignty of nations and territorial integrity. America's practical doctrine is also acquisition of wealth, but without assimilation of territory, using financial instruments instead. (See "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man".) Russia likes spheres of influence. Does Ukraine get a vote? A sphere of influence doctrine says no they do not, they are Nazis and too close to the innocent (narcissists). Thus the fight, and tragic consequences for the world. I can't change the past, but right now, in the present, I will not be rhetorically immobilized by the past. Awareness of like capabilities need not step into false equivalencies. I can root for Ukraine and its supporters and criticize Russia.
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  3372. Christopher Hitchens described the Russian government as a "psychopathic dictatorship." A study of psychopathy expands one's perspective on that regime. We can empathize with most of the Russian people, but the Russian regime generally has no empathy for anyone. It is psychopathic. For them, winning isn't everything. Winning is the only thing. And the regime is very hard to topple as long as its gunmen and their handlers are paid something and are essentially the only ones armed. A real fear for the regime now is not the loss of common soldiers, but the less frequent loss of those upper ranks tasked with managing and sometimes executing common soldiers, and the far less frequent loss of skilled FSB operatives tasked with reforming occupied territories. A long-term attrition of such key personnel, and the need to backfill losses of these key personnel, will weaken the regime. The regime indeed may have entered Ukraine because its oil and gas prosperity had funded an expansion of the cadre of gunmen and handlers. Perhaps from an FSB perspective, the regime was ready to expand its control over more land and people, and it is likely for the moment that its attrition is not a significant consideration. While crass in many respects, over the decades Russian internal security organizations have refined the business of controlling the population to a high degree, and they have access to the internal security laboratories of the likes of China, North Korea, and Cuba from which to draw additional techniques. The regime's concern with Ukraine being able to threaten Russian territory has to do with the ability to strike command and control, and I mean control not just of military operations but internal security operations. This function is well secured in most of Russian territory, but in Ukraine or near it, internal security force protection is less assured. Weaken regime control of its forces in and near Ukraine and large numbers of Russian troops in Ukraine may very well surrender for the sake of their lives and families.
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  3486. I was glad to hear of 136,000 diesel generators delivered to Ukraine. Of course, they need steady fuel supplies and maintenance, but Russia does not have the necessary quantity of missiles to take most of them out. Diesel generators are customarily used to backup water and wastewater facilities. They can be interconnected on the load side of the transmission substations which are typically shown in pictures of destroyed equipment. Ukraine might consider reciprocating strikes on the energy infrastructure of Russian occupied territory and even power stations on the Russian side near the border to complicate Russian logistics. It really makes less and less sense to allow massed Russian formations to rest in sanctuary near the Ukranian border. While Western nations and others may point out attacking utility infrastructure is usually viewed as a war crime, the United States used the tactic against Iraq. It is an ethical and strategic dilemma, but Ukraine must not allow itself to be too weakened by these strikes. It sounds like Ukraine, like many countries, has good electrical linemen and substation technicians. It is possible to harden substations against attacks. It is also possible to quickly build some kinds of power stations just over the borders of Slovakia and Poland and build multiple medium voltage class transmission lines to interconnect at multiple points to the Ukranian system. I imagine linemen from neighboring countries have volunteered to help, and I commend them greatly for that. The Western world can supply a steady stream of replacement equipment. Ukranian engineers I am sure are thinking out of the box, and they need to keep doing that.
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  3526. No. My daughter and her spouse chose each other. The Purity Ball was mom's idea. Mom had had a great experience at her debutante ball and thought her daughter should have something along that line, black-tie, gown, flowers, etc. Ok, mom. We got there and did a dance lesson to pass some time and change the subject from sex to learning how to dance. Dinner with strangers turns into the usual get to know each other and be light-hearted, because yes indeed this is rather unique. On the ride home I told her a wedding ring is an important cultural signal and that she should treat her ball ring like the piece of jewelry it was and do whatever with it, but not wear it on her wedding finger. I was already bonded to mom and we symbolized that with our rings and she, daughter, should not be confusing her suitors with some kind of dad thing. I will say this for my fellow guests at the ball. My wife and I are white. Our daughter was adopted from Latin America and so she was brown. Out in public I would get some bad looks if we were running errands together. People at the ball of course got a clue when we came in as father and daughter. Everybody was kind and we even felt rather respected and admired. That was pleasantly different. Was it the fear of God, realizing we, if our faith turned out to be true, had a long future together so we might as well get started adjusting to diversity? Maybe it's a bit like going to a dance studio for the first time with a partner or not. Most studios get you rotating among partners for brief moments (one minute usually) of practice. Usually, the class is short on men so women are taking the men's part sometimes dancing with other women. "This is different." Mixed feelings, but everybody is pretty polite about it, and they are there to have fun and exercise. I don't like Mike Johnson because he is callously spending the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. I've been an American airman and a soldier, and I am ashamed of what he is doing. That's why I think he indeed is creepy. I don't cringe because my daughter and I made mom happy.
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  3527. Deuteronomy 19:21 -- "Show no pity. Life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot." That authorizes precise vengeance. That also puts a limit on vengeance for the greater good. This is a Jewish concept of justice. When the response to October 7th started to become perceived as disproportionate, I think many, including myself, joined that perception. We agree Israel has a right of self-defense and a right of vengeance, but fear the unknowns created by excessive vengeance. If Israel's response had been more calibrated, then I think Israel would have retained more moral authority. I can understand Israeli rage, but again, the Torah seems to put a limit on that. I see no guarantee that the displacement of Hamas will in the long run pacify Gaza. (Face it. Given all the tunnels to Egypt found, a remnant of Hamas has already escaped. The useful martyrs remain for the final sacrifice.) The Gazans are not Germans or Japanese likely to tilt to peace once the war mongers among them have been dealt with. Perhaps Gaza becomes the "Kaliningrad" of Jordan, the closest thing to a Palestinian state. Not that Jordan or Israel are excited about the prospects of that. I don't see much alternative to an iron-fisted occupation to bring an end to Gaza's role as a rocket launch facility. And the locals will be seething about this for decades. There's no common faith to point to here. There's no proven, robust island culture to choose a better direction. I would be happy to be proven wrong.
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  3575. The danger of what Senator Rubio touches upon is that the inertia in American leadership's adjustment to the flow of intelligence could significantly contribute to a Chinese calculation to take Taiwan by force. Russia, likewise, can see that the US may not be agile enough to successfully intervene to rescue a border state. The Russians have already proved this under the watch of earlier administrations. e.g. Ukraine. Missing from the Senator's speech is any mention of human intelligence awareness of the state of Afghan government forces. One remembers quotes of numbers and equipment provided, but no mention of much awareness of specific Afghan military leadership actions or fighting spirit as it was evolving in real time. That we have so many SIV's is an indication that even after 20 years of involvement, foreign language skill within the Departments of State and Defense is wanting. We did not know what was happening because we lacked an ability to listen and understand. A few voices did predict a re-enactment of rapid changes in Afghan soldier perspective that had been seen before, e.g. Carter Malkasian. It seems his input was "averaged" into the analysis, if considered at all. And such round units of time "end of the year." Doesn't sound like much of a forward looking model of the battlespace was being used anymore. Whoever contributed to Taliban strategic planning, seems to have taken the change of administration into account. The GW Bush administration was still getting up to speed when 9/11 happened. We'll see how military leadership gets questioned about all this. I do very much appreciate that there seemed to be little, if any, partisanship in the Senator's remarks. He used his time well to focus the American people on the capability of its leadership to deal with a very difficult situation. Unique situations also lie ahead of us. This is not something a President resigns over, and VP Harris is not ready to assume that office. Changes in the Cabinet could be on the table.
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  3587. It's good and humane to plead for negotiations to stop killing. It's a poor negotiation tactic to decide to cut off support of one party without demanding equivalent, simultaneous reciprocity from the other party before negotiations. It's like announcing to the public that your union waives the right to strike before entering negotiations with management. I've negotiated as an employee representative and as an employer representative. Medea undermines her case by proposing unilateral actions without a simultaneous demand for an equal concession from the other side. I don't think she works for the Russians, but she sounds like she does. A comparable action by Russia would be to allow international inspectors to confirm that Russia has stopped all Russian trains and trucks carrying weapons to the Ukraine area while other inspectors do the same for arms moving into Ukraine from the West. In a good negotiation, both sides lay out all their issues, and then they start by trying to agree what the easiest issue to arrive at a tentative agreement is. It can take awhile to agree on that, but you can also take each side's easiest issue and agree to start talking about both of them. If you get stuck, you try to expand the issue list to find even easier issues. With the easy ones finally found, emotions about them are less intense and each side can begin to learn things about the other, and possibly build enough trust to move to the next issue. Maybe Medea would say it's none of her business to try to lay out all the issues, but I think she forfeits credibility when she focuses on doing one thing unilaterally that weakens Ukraine's negotiating position.
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  3610.  @vickimeyers2672  One of the points of legal or logical argument is to arrive at the truth. If the true winner of an election has no value to you, then I doubt you would be here, unless your purpose is simply emotional. Ok, you wish someone else had won. You could keep that emotion to yourself. But words you put up for others to see matter. Truth matters. That's why I argue as long as a post can be replied to. Are you sure you want to effectively concede to any readers of this thread that your opinion is false so easily? So how would you prove your case? You would reference a sufficient number of State audits and court findings to leave any reasonable person concluding that you have made a valid and sound logical argument that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. To date, no group of forensic or legal experts have been able to make that argument. They tried in Arizona, only to find that Joe Biden actually won Maricopa County by a few more votes than originally thought. They also confirmed that human beings make mistakes yet systems of rules and processes can still produce valid results. Sixty court cases across the country failed, with attorneys risking contempt of court charges for bringing flimsy evidence forward. This isn't some airy argument of no consequence. This is about maintaining the sufficient unity of the world's most powerful nation. Step up to being a citizen of such a nation. If more people did that, we might actually elect an impressive President with the true gravitas of a Washington.
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  3628. To my knowledge, Ukraine wasn't sneaking across the border to brutalize people in Belgorod or Kursk prior to Feb. 2022. Nor was it massing forces near the Russian border to invade Russia as were Israel's opponents before the 6 day war. The analogy doesn't fit, especially as Israel and Ukraine are in the position of local underdog. Ukraine was having the kind of internal security issue that Russian and Chinese governments insist is no one else's business, e.g. Uighurs. And given Russian actions, it is easy to suspect that Russia amplified dissent in Luhansk and Donetsk in its own long-term interest. "Settlers" aren't just characters in American Westerns. They are a tool of imperialism, Russian or American. When the natives attack the settlers, the army gets sent in, native land claims disregarded. The boundaries of Ukrainian jurisdiction were supposed to be settled by the rare turnover of nuclear weapons from Ukraine to Russia in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which included a measure of respect for Ukrainian borders by Russia, the US and UK pledging support to Ukraine on the matter. No surprise the US and UK are now supporting Ukraine in some measure to make their statements somewhat credible. Maidan is the kind of ideological threat Russian leadership fears more than a NATO invasion. Russia claims to support Ukrainian speakers of the Russian language when in fact Ukrainians who speak Russian compose perhaps the greatest potential to instigate a Maidan in Moscow. I don't think that will happen though. The best trained and equipped militia in Russia is their riot police.
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  3664. The plan to push out the best federal civil servants and replace them with loyalists (or no one) is proceeding. This is an opportunity for corporations and State and local governments to hire some very good people. I don't know if Mr. Trump has considered how State power, being enhanced by having a surge of quality employees, might expand in ways that increase State autonomy at the expense of his power. Perhaps it is his plan to foster internal migration, the alignment of politically allied States, and a defederalization of the United States into smaller entities. Sounds like something out of the Cold War playbook. A quiet chat between the President and his new Treasury Secretary would seem to be in order, or those who lend to the United States may begin to lose confidence. I think that chat would be incentivized by the Secretary noting that States are starting to plan for greater autonomy. Think back to the Articles of Confederation. The Constitution was intended to empower the nation's finances without a king. If the Constitutional checks and balances keep failing to work, then the backup plan is the States for governance. Wealthy as he may be, Elon Musk is in no position to underwrite anything much more than a hermit kingdom for Mr. Trump, and he can kiss his space program goodbye. President Trump's policies are putting the full faith and credit of the United States into question. That is unconstitutional, but does any Republican in office or Justice of the Supreme Court care about that anymore?
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  3723. Putin's intention is to set Russia on a course of increasing power and relevance. I think he sees the agriculture, the very soil of Ukraine, as food for an expanding ethnic Russian population that will displace Ukrainians. That expanded Russian population will develop the other resources of Ukraine to increase Russian power. We should not underestimate how vital to Russia's future Putin considers Ukraine, even though Russia has ample territory to expand its population and power were it to reconsider its form of government and general quality of life. Climate change may very well render more of Russia pleasantly habitable. I do not think Putin will use nuclear weapons because I suspect the US and Britain, parties to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, have privately informed Russian leadership that they will use their own conventional forces to thwart any gains Russia seeks to obtain by using tactical nuclear weapons. The US and Britain could even accelerate the defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine by doing so. Putin is setting the stage for Ukraine to experience a miserable winter. Ukrainian civilians should evacuate to NATO or other welcoming countries this winter unless they are a part of the war effort. This would reduce the load on what must become a more distributed and lower unit output electrical generating system. The West should financially help Ukrainians to do this. Western hotel chains are very adept at quickly constructing their buildings. Recreational vehicles can be supplied to many who need to remain in Ukraine, allowing them to relocate quickly as needed. These measures would reduce any impact of nuclear weapons targeting civilian or support populations. If Putin were to see these efforts to mitigate winter effects on Ukraine, he may have to conclude that it has become more important to reduce Russia's losses rather than hold out for unlikely gains.
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  3735. Putin keeps going because the Siloviki, the core enforcer and beneficiary of his regime, is still largely intact. He can sell enough oil, for now, to keep them intact and supportive. The deaths and other casualties have for the most part been non-Siloviki, i.e., they matter very little to both Putin and the Siloviki. Putin can base his hope on Trump's behavior in Afghanistan, that Trump's inclination is to cut costs by ending American influence operations overseas. Trump's public relations activities have effectively minimized any popular notion that he was "weak" in dealing as he did with the Taliban. Trump could see the American people were mostly indifferent or weary of the US operation in Afghanistan. His supporters have sufficiently convinced the American public that Biden was responsible for anything bad about Afghanistan. But Trump can probably see that a similar public relations campaign to cover "weakness" on Ukraine will not be as easy, and I think that explains his new tentative approach and the end of claims he will have the war over in a day. That was campaign talk that got him elected. Trump's values will steer him toward doing what benefits him, Russian financing for his sons' development projects, and his idea of America, a place where he's the boss. I look to Trump to influence legislators away from foreign affairs and onto the perpetual cultivation of working-class grievances in a manner that in effect serves their employers. Putin is counting on it in the long run. Mr. Barros really didn't touch on how this war is also wearing down Ukraine, another trend that contributes to Putin's persistence. The most recent Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory is politically smart in that it shows Trump that Ukraine might have the fight to keep going for months, but unlike Russia, Ukraine has seen the loss of significant numbers of its finest citizens who have stepped forward to defend their way of life. It's Ukraine's turn to see foreign troops come to its assistance to tilt the battle against Putin and help him realize it's time to compromise rather than hold out for everything he wants. The other vital measure the West must take is significantly hampering any further Russian shipping of its oil. Ukraine's shutting down natural gas transit is a pretty strong whiff of how such a strategy could accelerate negotiations toward a better settlement for Ukraine. France has stepped forward somewhat, and I suspect it is working with the front-line states on a plan to put Putin into local retreats that don't allow Putin to continue his current bargaining position. France needs to do this while Ukraine is enjoying the recent delivery of American weaponry. Putin is counting on European hesitancy to result in the depletion of that weaponry coupled with Trump's withdrawal to America first. Europe needs to act in the next few months because circumstances will probably be optimal sooner rather than later.
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  3759.  @legaleeblonde4310  Everybody is biased. "All have sinned and fall short of the glory of God." Only God can be objective, anyone else who claims objectivity is a "know it all." That doesn't mean I stop debating. Why was there no uproar when thousands of Ukrainians entered the United States? I hosted a Ukrainian family that came over the southern border. Nice people. Good parents. Well behaved kids. Visited our church more than once. I have a friend from Honduras, hardworking in a profitable business. Smart. Do we have to weed out the spies and criminals? Yes, that's been an ongoing task for decades. Why were there, twice, recently and long ago, Spanish speaking young men putting a new roof on my house, a process plainly visible to aerial surveillance, but no official came by to deport them and fine, much less prosecute, the citizen contractor who hired them? Tell me Republican businessmen do not like cheap labor. We have had that southern border for over a century to work on. Ukraine didn't start fighting for its life until 2014. Time is of the essence for Ukraine. We have decades ahead of us to scale up control of our borders. Take a look at the history of staffing of the Border Patrol. Looks like it plateaued. I hear they have a recruiting problem. Know anything about that? Yes, both Republicans and Democrats have been in a race to see which party could use up America's credit for its own policies since Reagan cut taxes and raised defense spending at the same time. There was that blip when Gingrich and Clinton balanced the budget, but then W fixed that with another tax cut and more defense spending. You are right and wrong, because the only way out of a looming debt crisis is Ronnie Reagan's way out, grow the economy. Part of how you do that is grow the population with energetic young people from abroad. They made quick work of my roof. I say the crisis at the border is manufactured for political purposes, and the purpose of politics these days is who gets the government's borrowed money. Dig for better premises for your short arguments if you want to be persuasive. Or just be a venting YouTube commenter. It's a free country.
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  3760. Russian social engineering has a way of manufacturing self-determination. The conduct of the US and UK is explained by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Ukraine. As you probably know that Memorandum recognized the tension that would be created by nuclear arsenals in both Russia and Ukraine and deferred to the benefit of Russia. In exchange, Russia recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine. You fail to mention the underlying motivations of the Russian leadership. Russia should be very concerned about the rise of the economic and military power of China. This concern expresses itself in hyperbolic assertions of friendship between the two nations. Neither Russian nor Chinese leadership is naive. They are imperial powers with their own agendas. The US/NATO is a convenient common enemy. Russia needs to improve its imperial power through the acquisition of Ukrainian territory and population. Therefore it has set aside the Budapest Memorandum. From an imperial perspective, Russian behavior is understandable. Russian pretexts are seen as just that. The pretexts are very necessary because openly voicing concerns about China would be worse. But the contest between the two empires is obvious to any strategic observer. The West, with its own I would dare say more progressive imperial methods, would like to invest in and trade with Ukraine, and not necessarily to the point of leaving Russia out of trade with Ukraine. After all, Russia has had trade relationships with EU nations. But Russia needs a more exclusive control of Ukraine to advance its acquisition of power. For what it has done to Ukraine, Russia can only establish Ukraine's compliance through a highly oppressive occupation. That does not optimize productivity. All this avoids the agency of the Ukrainian people themselves, which has been demonstrated by 10 years of sacrifice for the sake of their autonomy. Neutrality without alliance would be absurd for Ukraine. The neutrality of Ukraine would preserve Russia's opportunity for further annexations. The compromise would be an alliance of nations bordering Russia with other willing partners less susceptible to being turned like Hungary and Türkiye. Such an alliance could sustain deterrence of further Russian encroachment, while technically and in terms of total deterrent power be "non-NATO". It is likely the US would be a willing partner. A key aspect of NATO are the nuclear forces of France, the UK, and the US. Russia needs to consider that if it opposes nuclear armed powers in the alliance, then an incentive for indigenous nuclear arsenals would be created. Germany would be fully capable, especially in alliance with technically capable nations such as Sweden and Finland. The Korean War and its eventual armistice does not perfectly model the war in Ukraine, but it does illustrate an outcome in which the warfighting abilities of both sides reach a nadir at which a significant reduction of hostilities finally makes sense to both sides. There were potential nuclear war aspects to that conflict as well. It is possible that nuclear brinkmanship could bring about a settlement, although Russia has tried this early and often and only seems willing to go just so far with it. Russia under Putin has lost the possibility of a modern economic and military alliance that might have effectively addressed Russia's unadmitted security concerns about China. Putin has rejected the Western imperial model in favor of his own. I propose his model is not entirely successful. The world becomes more aware of the techniques of Russian propaganda the more it is subjected to Russian propaganda.
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  3813.  @donalexey  My understanding is that Crimeans, like other island peoples, develop a loyalty to their island culture and would prefer autonomy from the adjacent mainland powers. In many cases, such as Taiwan, they can only obtain a measure of this autonomy by aligning with a larger power. In Japan's case, the island nation is actually powerful enough to secure its sovereignty. Crimea is not well situated for this kind of autonomy. It does not have a large population and the adjacent powers can too easily build bridges to it and control it. The powers move in and manufacture the consent of the islanders. This same geographic vulnerability preceded Catherine's acquisition of Crimea in the 18th Century. The Ottomans and Tatars had a long run of control of the island. Looking at a map it is easy to see that Russia will always be in a strong position to control Crimea. That does not mean Crimeans, in their heart of hearts, prefer the steady stream of enforcers from Moscow. Provincial identities are common. Here in Florida, a sense of community arises out of common responses to the geography and to such events as hurricanes which bring out community spirit in recovery. The rest of the United States may have their differences with who Floridians elect to office, but Washington does not send enforcers to dismiss locally elected officials (our Governor Desantis has dismissed certain elected district attorneys, shame on him and I am free to say that) and hand pick new state legislators and then intimidate residents into expressing favorable opinions. Crimeans' charge that they were "neglected by Kyiv" is rather odd in the light of the foregoing explanation of island culture. They should be happy to be neglected by a federal power because that only increases their autonomy and freedom! I would think part of Crimea's appeal to tourists would be to get away from the negative aspects of Moscow or St. Pete for awhile. In Florida, we have the informal "Conch Republic" in the Florida Keys. It's not so much defiant as it is a celebration of getting away from the usual authorities for a break. As long as positive federal services provided align with taxes paid, the relationship between the federal and the provincial can be sustained. But that is more of an American perspective. Russian administration is funded more by resource sales than by taxes. Crimeans probably do not feel overtaxed. Russia is in Crimea for what now appear to be archaic naval reasons and to deny Ukraine resources it might have used in competition with Russia in the European market, i.e. offshore oil and gas. And Russian tourists should perhaps ask if they would prefer Crimean or Russian jurisdiction when they are on vacation. (Why would Russians tour in Turkiye so much? Is there a plan to annex Turkiye so Russian tourists will be more comfortable there?) The grievance that is likely to develop in Crimea is the same as that underlying the comments of these Russian residents, that is, they have no say when it comes to their sons and husbands and neighbors being conscripted into the Russian imperial project. They want the right of quiet enjoyment. They are not getting it with Russia's war on Ukraine.
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  3829.  @woodchuck003  I think yours is the most comprehensive response to a post I have ever seen on YouTube. Good points. And they raise issues: "So you believe the poor should give more money to people who are economically better off." It depends on the product or service the poor are demanding. "Give" is the wrong word. "Trade" is the right word. A car dealer typically makes above $44,000 a year. The car buyer may resent that, but they still want the car. The car dealer might discount a little, but they are not going to bend their price to set their own income at $44,000. Or are you saying they are obliged to do so as a sort of solidarity with their fellow human beings? Would a better ethical system set the compensation of all occupations at the same amount, regardless of hours worked and the knowledge, skill, risk, and ability required? There's a whiff in that of the kind of disincentives that led to the stagnation and failure of the Soviet economy, not that it ever was egalitarian. I propose that occupations merit different compensation for various reasons: time and difficulty to learn the occupation, hazards of the occupation (e.g., electrical linemen >$100,000/year, don't need a G.E.D., but some of them die every year), impact on public safety, and emotional intelligence. Good teaching requires significant emotional intelligence, and every student feels and knows that. If the median income is $44,000, what is the median hours worked per year by such employees? Does anybody even know what that is? Some teachers make $44,000 a year on salary. How many hours did they work for that? Are there 40 hour / week jobs that make $44,000/year. Probably. Who has more free time during the year? Count the salaried teacher's extra hours and it might be more or less. Have you ever helped a teacher spouse grade papers till bedtime? I have. My line to her is "I quit your job." That's "I" personally, not "I would if I were you", and the time I put in helping her make sure kids get a good education. She's special ed. So this springs out of personal observation for me, and I know, and you are right, that some of my points are rather trite or low value, but they are personally experienced. I make much more money than my teacher wife, but in many ways her job, especially the emotional intelligence needed to lead each unique student well, is more difficult than mine.
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  3832.  @roshanchachane142  No. The US decided opposing the Russia, China, and mostly Pakistan-backed Taliban was taking away resources from the defense of the Pacific Rim, support of NATO and Ukraine, and its need to pay for military modernization programs. There was also a sense that the Afghan conflict had gone far past a proportional NATO response to 9/11, and that anti-terrorism cannot mean stationing troops in every possible anti-American sanctuary country. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a strategic choice and, yes, also a whim of Trump's America First ideology. It did reveal that the Afghan military was too intertwined with NATO to stand on its own, but not intertwined enough for the US to know how fast it, the Afghan military, would retire from the field. The notion that the Taliban by themselves ejected NATO from Afghanistan is what Russia, China, and Pakistan want the world to believe. Kind of like saying the Afghan mujahedeen ejected the Soviet Union by themselves. The "ragtag group of Talibanis" and their backers apparently did not have a plan to replace American and NATO economic support of Afghanistan. Is anyone going to hold hearings about that? Taliban posers need to go back to school and the farm and figure out how to expand and improve their irrigation under drought conditions, and provide safe access to their mineral resources, or they are going to be very stuck in poverty. They didn't seem to have any kind of a plan for climate change. They predominantly had a will to power to establish their idea of a religiously pure society.
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  3861. You are right about empathy. Study psychopaths. They are often our leaders. No empathy, just calculation. Hard work and paying taxes are for little people. With respect to Ukraine, see YouTube video "Russia's Catastrophic Oil and Gas Problem." The war in Ukraine is about money and Russia using its power to get more. Russia tries to dress that up in all sorts of ways which always to me fall short of a just rationale for killing people and turning cities into rubble. I would apply the same principle to China v. Taiwan. It's about the amazing amount of money 20 million Taiwanese can generate compared to the mainland. China tries to dress up a rationale for invading in all sorts of ways. China wants Taiwanese industry and its best people under its control. It wants the money that goes with that. The miscalculation is that they really do not understand how to set up a lawful society in which people can flourish at that level. (I am not saying the Chinese people on the mainland have not made progress, they have. Good for them.) That is limited, republican, elected government. How is it that the United States, a country of a mere 330 million people, can rival the economy of the world's most populous nation, China? How do we do that? Slavery in the past? Some. Academic, religious, and entrepreneurial freedom? More. The challenge is to get psychopathic leaders to look at this rather than themselves. They are always right, even when they are wrong, a self-defeating ideology that shipwrecks on the rocks of truth.
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  3875.  @michaelg7520  How do we discern "belief" from a diplomatic statement? The latter gets adjusted based on circumstances, like the inability to "de-nazify" Ukraine leading to less mention of that as a goal of the special military operation. When we see a change in narrative like that, we can lean toward seeing "existential" as diplomatic language rather than a true and immutable "belief". For a psychopath like Putin, "existential" is "me" and maybe "my kin". And for a psychopath to propose to any psychopaths around him that he is going to put "them and theirs" at existential risk by ordering extreme actions risks creating an existential threat to "me" by "them". The toned down nature of Victory Day (no declaration of war, no mass mobilization) leans toward him acknowledging that internal threat. So now he leans toward his "belief" that Russia has more endurance than the West. From a Western perspective, that is probably the best state of mind he can be maneuvered into right now. He will keep up any level of conflict in Ukraine he can sustain until he dies of old age to show fidelity to Russian geopolitics. It's been waxing and waning since 2014 or even before. The new guy will get to make a new policy, or not. For now, Ukraine has to reduce Russian intervention to a level that allows the return of refugees and restoration of some economy. Putin of course is bombing every house he can to delay that. He's already tolerating Ukrainian strikes in Russia proper without resort to tactical nukes. I think what "existential" means is getting clarified. It's "me and mine" and the security forces that protect "me and mine", and maybe a bit more than that. But he is not defending every inch of Russian territory as if those strikes were an "existential" threat. And Ukraine is going to go with that evidence as much as it can to reduce Russia's ability to attack Ukraine.
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  3879.  @nyalarhotep  These points have been made over and over again. I propose they are pretext. Why? Think about what was going to happen in Ukraine. Exxon, Chevron and Shell had conducted extensive surveys of Ukraine for oil and gas that could be extracted by the most modern methods those companies now have. Ukraine was on its way to entering the European oil and gas market with the assistance of those companies. That would have increased Ukrainian government revenue and decreased Russian government revenue. Increased government revenue would have further secured Ukraine's independence. If Putin was ever going to take Ukraine, then he had to do it now. A future Ukraine full of American and European capital investment would have been vigorously defended by NATO countries, even if Ukraine was not in NATO. Putin invaded before that investment occurred. This is a world of empires. This is an imperial war over resources, and not just oil and gas, but every resource in Ukraine and warm water ports on the Black Sea. Just go back to Potemkin to understand Russia's interests in the region. And a few more things, how could the CIA outwit the FSB in the FSB's own backyard? Grant the Ukrainian people some agency in all of this. A lot of them are into boxing. They can fight. They read Svetlana Alexievich's "Second-Hand Time" and decide they want to have a different kind of life. They remember the famine under Stalin. Millions died because of his policy. All the money and weapons in the West would not make a difference if the Ukrainians were not willing to fight. Every day they are showing the world that they are people, too, and that they matter.
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  3904.  @vrapnyc  In the United States, the governing authority, unlike Caesar in the Roman Empire, is the Constitution of the United States. I don't know that Paul ever had the opportunity to vote for his political leaders, though, through the Greeks, democracy was known as an option. The church's existence in his time was seemingly precarious, and Paul perceived and proposed, in the verse you cite, essentially that the church, though able to assemble hundreds of people in a single gathering and beginning to demonstrate a strong level of organization and cooperation, was not a direct threat to the Roman Empire. I think "The Chosen" video series rightly includes a Roman intelligence officer in the cast of characters in order to portray a mixture of Roman curiosity and concern with the Christian way. The legitimacy of any official of the United States, is based upon We the People, who elect Congress, which has the power to impeach and remove officials. Is the verse telling us that God is at work in who people donate to and vote for? Does this mean that those who did not vote for the winner are sinners on this issue, having voted against the apparent will of God? I am in the American Solidarity Party because my conscience is most at rest in its platform and statement of principles. These principles, in the most general presentation, are pro-life, social justice, environmental justice, and peace. I voted for Peter Sonski for President. Would Paul advise me I sinned in doing so? Or would he say that my proper course of action going forward is to support and defend the Constitution of the United States? Mr. Trump has framed his shooting survival as an endorsement from God. I think there is another way to frame that experience in John 5:14, "Later Jesus found him at the temple and said to him, “See, you are well again. Stop sinning or something worse may happen to you.”
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  3917.  @c431inf  I might agree if we had a stand-alone economy. I can't think of a country that does. I'm old enough to have watched Ronald Reagan cut taxes, raise the defense budget and increase the national debt to put the Soviets (Putin's heritage) under enough stress to eventually lead to its breakup. We enjoyed a peace dividend after that, and Gingrich and Clinton actually balanced the federal budget. Don't believe me. Look it up for yourself. When kitchen table folks got nervous about what Reagan was doing, he pointed out the way to deal with government debt was to grow the economy. It worked. We indeed face an economic death spiral, but going turtle as you suggest will not grow the economy and reduce the debt/GDP ratio. It will accelerate the economic death spiral. So will kicking American citizen contractor's cheap labor out of the country, like it or not. We are an international trading nation with a lot of formally or informally indentured labor, like pretty much every other major power. The Houthi's attacks way over in the Red Sea are raising shipping prices and thus our consumer prices. Should we pull the US Navy out of the Red Sea and tell the Egyptians and the Saudi's that our price inflation is their fault? I encourage you to study international trade and its security requirements. I encourage you to think about what Putin will do if he acquires additional power by taking Ukraine. Don't project your isolationism onto him. He thinks big. He's an imperialist who wants a bigger piece of the pie, and if he gets it, there is less for our economy, because he will not hesitate to shut other countries out of trading with Ukraine unless tribute is paid in some form. Watch the series "The Americans". They are here among us, talking on YouTube and planting their ideas in your brain.
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  3918.  @c431inf  Calling it bs is not persuasive, and Ukraine is not asking you to enlist in their army. Are you effectively saying you are OK with whatever happens to the Ukrainian people and sending them one 155mm artillery shell scheduled for disposal is too much?. Maybe there is a more modest level of aid you could support. I've hosted two Ukrainian families in my home. They want to be a part of Europe. Russia acts like a mafia in their country. They do not want to live under Russian mind control (their words). Russian jurisdiction is so bad they would rather fight, kill, and die than live under it. America is imperial also. We lend public money to foreign countries so they can buy American corporation stuff. That's part of why we have the general prosperity we do. Yet I read Noam Chomsky, Noami Klein, Mearsheimer, Sachs, and other critics of American behavior. I watch their speeches and Amy Goodman's Democracy Now. And after taking in all that self-criticism, I still think Ukraine vs. Russia is a just war and Ukrainians make good friends in business and socially. In the beginning, America sold cotton and tobacco to Europe and bought European manufactured goods and slaves from Africa. We have achieved oil and gas independence today, and that's good, but we have never been a standalone economy. We are interested in finding lithium everywhere to support more electrical batteries in a hybrid energy economy. The US Navy is classically fighting inflation in shipping costs in the Red Sea. Has America done stupid stuff? Yes. Is it always stupid? No.
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  4065. I'm an American. I care. I had Ukrainians staying at my house. They were very fine people. Hard working. Good parents. Well behaved children. They are human beings who are not American or Russian and there are millions of them and they should be able to have their own country. Are we to believe that Russians just can't control themselves when it comes to who lives on the other side of their border? Are we to believe America is responsible for everything? That sounds like an inability to take personal responsibility and instead blame someone else for Russian problems. That sounds like Russian leaders who do want to control more land and more people projecting their own motives on others. What I have come to believe is that the cabal of leaders and internal security forces in Russia are afraid that if democracy succeeds in Ukraine, then Ukrainians will talk with their Russian relatives about their progress and the Russian people will want that progress for themselves. That's why Russian leaders tightly control their press and encourage people to make comments like this on YouTube. These leaders are afraid that the development of Ukrainian oil and gas resources will shrink their own market share for those commodities and thus shrink the wealth they use to reward the internal security forces that oppress the Russian people and keep them in power and wealth. This is what I believe. Russian leaders do not like truth. They are like the chief priests and the Pharisees in the Gospel of John talking about Jesus, who came to witness to the truth. They said: "If we let him (the Truth) go on like this, everyone will believe in him, and then the Romans (the people) will come and take away both our temple (our mansions and yachts) and our nation (our big confidence game that makes us rich).” So the Russian leaders decided to crucify Ukraine. Repent.
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  4101. Many interesting ideas. Check out the American Solidarity Party. The writers of the American Constitution appear to have understood a number of things: 1. The morale of "The People" does matter when it comes to maintaining productivity and a military. 2. The morale of the elite minority must be guarded from the selfishness and generally, relatively poor judgment of "The People". 3. The system must favor the elite, because the elite lead the nation to greater power through invention and implementation, raising the general standard of living. 4. But the elite tend to monarchy and autocracy, which by their nature crush the morale of "The People". See North Korea, Russia, etc. 5. Therefore, a large majority of "The People", that is, their opinion gathering the approval of 3/4 of the State legislatures, can alter the system. Ultimately they can check and balance the system peacefully if they organize to do so. The American system is designed to strike a balance between the morale of the elite and the morale of "The People" and veer away from civil war. It has always been the underlying tension in human society. The elite face the dilemma of being in the numerical minority, and thus dependent on the cooperation and morale of the masses. While not the nation of the world's largest population, the American nation has more billionaires by far than any other nation. America, by design, is the friend of ambition and achievement. When coupled with a fair deal for the people, the result is the world's most powerful nation. Every day, thousands line up to join the project. I don't think that's all bad as long as they come to be ambitious Americans.
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  4142. Americans' recourse for the Iraq invasion was the 2004 election. George W. Bush was returned to office. As the war went on the miscalculations became clear to the American public. That may have had something to do with Obama's election. Obama ran up against forces similar to those that were imposed on Bush. While the Iraqi people are not better off as a result of the war, the forces might very well be satisfied with a number of its outcomes: 1) the diversity of oil exporting middle eastern nations was maintained and was confirmed non-nuclear; 2) Iraqi oil output, produced at a very favorable cost, was better under American control rather than Iranian or otherwise; 3) billions of dollars of contracts were awarded to American firms for a wide range of products and services, funded by taxes and more federal debt. These forces continue to have interests in Iraq and the surrounding nations, and thus a significant American military presence is maintained. What the American people might do is lean on the Congress to see that more Iraqi oil revenue and US funded programs are routed to the genuine improvement of life for most Iraqi citizens. I remember one Iraqi student at my university in the 1980s. We should have had more, and we can still do something about that to stay in touch and get first hand accounts of true conditions in Iraq. I truly hope there are talented Iraqi students attending our best universities and speaking up there so we do not forget and that we also continuously improve our policies and programs.
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  4208.  @GreatPolishWingedHussars  Why weren't these people, those in Donbas who would prefer to be under Russian jurisdiction, speaking up in 1991 to 1994? How many of them might have emigrated to Russia? How much money was Russia putting into the Donbas to support a future annexation? (It was amazing how the Communists' publicity campaigns at my university disappeared when the Soviet Union dissolved). Where is Russia putting Ukrainians who stayed in these oblasts but needed to get away from the war? I can be a Floridian in the US. Why can't people be Luhanskyan (or whatever) in Ukraine? It's a principle called subsidiarity. A good government pushes decision making power into local and regional governments so people can adjust policy to suit their local conditions. I believe Russia has a long policy of planting ethnic Russians and exiling native citizens in bordering regions it seeks to acquire, e.g. Kaliningrad. Who were and are all the various ethnicities sent to Siberia over the decades? I don't buy MIC provocation of Russia. Stingers and Javelin's were not a provocation unless making it harder for Russia to annex Ukraine is a provocation. Poroshenko has spoken of working for years on improving the Ukrainian military since it got caught unprepared for the invasion of Crimea. I can understand Russia thinking that if it was every going to take Ukraine, now was the time. The Donbas is a rich land. Any empire would want it. Any empire would want most of Ukraine. I understand if Russia had allowed Ukraine's trends to continue, it would lose any chance of exercising jurisdiction over it for decades. It's not about being provoked. It's about an already corrupt system wanting even more. These arguments so often deny millions of human beings any agency over their lives. The assertion is that only Russia matters and its only obstacle is the US. I just don't see it that way because the wealth and proximity arguments explain things so much better to me. The US just created its Space Force and the MIC is getting into that. It's pushing on NGAD. It's building Ford class aircraft carriers with EMALS that may end up with lower performance than steam catapults. It is very much into advocating for more ship building to respond to the growth of the Chinese Navy. It's got Columbia class SLBM submarines to build. It's got new Sentinel ICBMs to build. It's building B-21s. It's cranking out F-35s and all the stuff that goes with managing a battle space. US aid to Ukraine was a small percentage of the Russian military budget prior to the war. Yes, the $50 billion Ukraine aid bill in large measure goes to the MIC, but not all of it. Russia has set the stage to live next to very well armed neighbors. They deserve it.
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  4209.  @GreatPolishWingedHussars  Thank you for expanding on what Russia considers provocations and for essentially describing more of your paradigm or perspective on international relations in Europe. I would like to present you with some other perspectives. "But the Russians in Donbas and Crimea are no longer colonists, they are locals." People in America, and in the Americas, are quite mobile. They try to go where they can have a better life, perhaps finding a new job in a different part of the country. Albert Einstein emigrated from Germany to America. Ethnocentric white Americans sometimes move long distances to certain communities or States like Idaho so they live in a place where they feel more comfortable. This kind of mobility and the many reasons for it is not strange to Americans. Recently, thousands of Russians who disagreed with government policy left Russia. So why wouldn't some people in Luhansk or Donetsk move to Russia if Ukrainian policy does not suit them? I understand some people might have a very hard time moving, but then perhaps it is best if they adjust to Ukraine, just like people in Russia need to adjust to Russia, or leave if they just disagree too much with Russian policy, like Einstein did from Germany. Emigrating is more peaceful than war. Einstein had a pretty good life in America. Millions of people want to get in here with us. We are at 334 million and rising, even with all our difficulties. How does Russia, with a larger population than any neighbor except China, and with 6500 nuclear warheads, get so easily "provoked"? On the surface, that appears as if Russia never thoroughly developed a strategic perspective based on its nuclear arsenal. On the surface, Russia holds to geopolitical concepts of its security architecture as if, for convenience, its arsenal does not exist, i.e. Putin's statements strongly imply that nothing less than the re-establishment of the western border of the Warsaw Pact or exclusive "sphere of influence" will secure Russia, and maybe not even then. I think Russia has thoroughly considered the opportunities created by its nuclear arsenal, and it is using that power to confidently annex manageable areas of territory on its periphery, like America did in its first two centuries, when it enjoyed military superiority over the native tribes who had lived here for thousands of years. Americans recognize imperialism when we see it, because we have practiced it. "Provocation" is a sort of diplomatic dress up of the human imperial impulse. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, the neighbors have decided to take up the cause of the underdog, the natives, against the imperial power. I think American military statements about a "long war" are a signal to Russia that America is prepared to arm Ukraine, whatever is left of it, for a long time, just like it armed the mujahadeen. They are not saying that because the MIC told them to. What they are saying is a sort of diplomatic dress up of a strategy to exhaust both sides and reach a settlement as soon as possible. A genuine concern for human beings sometimes occurs in America, and I am not being sarcastic. That is a part of what attracts people to this country. Ukraine is getting tired of losing soldiers. That's humane, isn't it? Russia can only keep a lid on the forces that led to the withdrawal from Afghanistan for just so long, same as America. Those are forces that have ended wars. American policy seems designed to bring the sides to a convergence without undue escalation. Putin is going to feel he has won. His successor will face a more powerful NATO. I am prepared to hear that successor say that is a provocation, because Russian leadership looks stuck in its paradigm. Gorbachev was proof to them that the paradigm cannot be changed. The fate of Russia's imperialism is to forever chafe against its containment by allied neighbors. It's like the Russian journalists said, Russia is going the way of the North Korean model. Both America and Russia have a MIC with their respective interests. I can imagine the full range of human perspectives in each, from love of country to love of just self and profit. Do you know that Americans are presented Eisenhower's statement you quoted very often? We are aware. It's a part of almost every student's education to see and hear it. I have no clue about any Russian leader warning the Russian people about the Russian MIC. Maybe you can help with that?
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  4210.  @GreatPolishWingedHussars  Ethnic Ukrainians in Russia must accept Russian jurisdiction. Ethnic Russians in Ukraine must accept Ukrainian jurisdiction. Do Ukrainians in Russia have a right to form majority enclaves in Russia near the Ukrainian border and hold referendums on changing jurisdiction? Russia would say that is ridiculous, no? Either ethnic group should have a reasonable opportunity to migrate if they disagree too much with the jurisdiction they are under, but jurisdictional borders should be respected by both sides. If Russia acts one-sidedly with its neighbors, it should expect, and indeed observes, that small bordering nations will form alliances with nuclear powers to offset Russian power. The reference to the Cuban missile crisis rhymes with but does not match the current situation. I am not aware of the US proposing to move missiles with nuclear warheads into Ukraine. Given the Russian military's persistent position in Ukraine, it is very doubtful to me that Russia ever perceived any serious military threat to Russian territory from Ukraine. Cases have been made that Russia in concerned with a cultural and ideological threat from Ukraine. Soviet and Russian aircraft and naval vessels routinely pass near the 12 mile territorial limit of the United States. The US tracks them or escorts them. The term is "professionally". The US does not threaten nuclear war because Bear bombers are flying off the coast. It sends up an F-16 or two. The US does have a history of conflict with the Spanish Empire in the Americas, Mexico being the case on the border. The US Border Patrol and the Mexican Army communicate about issues. It cannot be called a friendly border, neither are the two nations at war. But there is tension over various trafficking and illegal immigration. The border between the US and Canada is peaceful. The US has not invaded Canada for its resources. As I mentioned before, the armed forces of the United States have no shortage of projects for the US MIC. Few companies actually make the ammunition primarily needed by Ukraine. The great majority of MIC companies make parts for simple and sophisticated systems, or just maintaining existing military bases, depots and shipyards. I think most US MIC companies would actually argue they have better things to do to counter the expanding economic and military power of China. It's not all about Russia. It's not even mostly about Russia. And I think that is why the level of aid to Ukraine is calibrated to bring about exhaustion and convergence on a settlement. The obvious geopolitical reason for the war is for Russia to increase its control of the European oil and gas market, especially the German market, ergo the Nordstrom pipelines. The Donbas is rich in natural gas, for which Europe has traditionally had a large appetite and a desire to have sources beside the North Sea. Crimea provides access to oil and gas in the Black Sea. Russia is second only to Saudi Arabia in oil production, and 1/3 of the Russian government budget is obtained through the sale of oil and gas. Any independent development of Ukrainian oil and gas was a threat, yes indeed, a provocation, to Russia's oil and gas market share. (Russia, which has oil development ability, has limited Venezuelan production to well below the 3 million bbls per day that country can produce and needs to produce for its own revenue, but that, too, would infringe on Russia's market share and prices.) This is the underlying reason for the war, not the US MIC. The US war in Iraq was, for all its reasons bad or worse, about having reliable access, not necessarily control, to some of the world's best oil resources found in that country. It was about taking the power of an oil embargo away from Saddam Hussein and his sons. The US presence in the Persian Gulf is about the oil. The war in Ukraine rhymes with all that history. The most lucrative markets for oil and gas are also the markets that have the capacity to transition from being fossil fuel economies to nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro based resources generating electricity for as much replacement of fossil fuel applications as possible. The US is generally energy independent, although its buyers purchase Russian fossil fuels because Russia offers attractive pricing. The trend here is a steady increase in wind, solar, and geothermal power generation, and various forms of energy storage. Geothermal plant construction and drilling has also revealed deep underground lithium resources in the US. I think Russia understands all this, and they are seeking to maximize their fossil fuel revenue while they can. I don't hear much about Russia introducing electric cars or programs to reduce CO2 emissions. It is really no strategic concern to Mr. Putin and probably not a concern to his next two successors. China and India will buy what Europe and the Americas will not. So this makes much more sense to me as a reason for the war in Ukraine. Why? Because other empires, including the US, have waged war for oil and gas. And it's all bad behavior.
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  4231. As an American, and an employer of legals and mostly citizens, I feel we should not upset the economy. It is how we survive, and we are taking that too much for granted in this immigration matter. We should just garnish the wages of illegals enough to force them (and their employers) to face their decision with tougher consequences in view, i.e. less pay for a time. Some will come anyway because of a mix of ignorance, but also sometimes desperation for their family. I housed two Ukrainian families for a time because they preferred not to be blown up by a drone or cruise missile. I have a dear friend from Honduras who testifies to the validity of fears of gang threats and family well-being in that country and those nearby. There may be ways to vet out pure opportunists, but we should show respect to anyone seeking work. Once someone chooses the illegal route, their path to citizenship should be more expensive and take more time than the path of a legal immigrant. That is just fair, and I think they should be able to accept those consequences for the sake of their family. The garnishment needs to very calibrated, or it will stimulate black market effects or fewer people choosing the legal route, but that is where ICE comes in, and the revenue from garnishments can help pay for that enforcement and even portions of the border wall. (There, that's how we get "Mexico", i.e. foreigners to pay for the wall.) Another measure is to continue the development of "regional centers" in and near sending nations to inform candidates for immigration of US law and in some sense to be sanctuary cities outside of the United States. Here at these regional centers, candidates can obtain a better measure of immediate safety and be more thoroughly vetted before being safely transited to a secured job and housing in the United States. While perhaps being seen as a new colonialism, these regional centers may become themselves the destination of choice for those seeking a better life in their own country. Again, garnishments can help financially support these efforts, which I believe are more efficient than law enforcement overtime and C-17 air shows. Finally, on the subject of white supremacy, I do think the new Treasury Secretary and the National Chamber of Commerce will soon be quietly advising the President that we have a very limited supply of unemployed white people to backfill all these deportees' jobs, and that US economic optics could start to tilt south. As a showman, he understands it can be made to look like things are getting done without overdoing it.
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  4350.  @skhotzim_bacon  See Jake Broe. He had a display of the votes in his YouTube last night, 10/5/23. Or you could ask your representative and Senators how they are going to vote on Ukraine and what they know about the respective vote counts. What's your metric of manpower? The Russian population vs. the Ukrainian population? That discounts the Western economies who are not losing any of their people to their armies, while the Russian army loses draft dodgers and takes men out of their economy to keep up the fight. How does that work out over time? Is it possible to multiply the effectiveness of a soldier through things such as night vision, superior ISR, and distribution of decision-making authority? I'm not seeing an awareness of military science in your posts. I see conclusions without premises. I think the Ukrainian military is in a balance of training and conserving forces while demonstrating the will to keep fighting. They are waiting for the F16s and the ATACMS to help them take back a strategic part of the relevant geography. That is, the land bridge that Russia has so clearly sought to defend because they know they must have it to keep Crimea. Do you think the Russian's understand military science? Do you see that they cannot completely hide their goals, because of where they have chosen to make their stands? Do you see that they have to extend and expose themselves to hang on to that geography? Do you see how that allows Ukraine to plan a focused offensive that actually leverages what they have that is not solely dependent on a notion of competing levels of manpower? Watch some Perun or William Spaniel on YouTube to get a better idea of the many variables involved in this war.
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  4352.  @skhotzim_bacon  Ah, you've added a variable besides manpower, industrial advantage. I dispute that Russian industry has more capacity than the industrial nations supporting Ukraine. I will use your manpower argument. Population of Ukraine, approximately 45 million. Population of Russia, 145 million. The combined population of nations supporting Ukraine is over 1.1 billion, composed of the United States (335 million), Great Britain (63 million) Canada (35 million), Norway (5 million), Finland (5 million), Sweden (10 million), Latvia (2 million), Estonia (1 million), Lithuania (3 million), Poland (38 million), Romania (19 million), Germany (83 million), France (68 million), Denmark (6 million), The Netherlands (17 million), Belgium (11 million), Spain (47 million), Italy (59 million), Greece (10 million), Turkiye (sometimes, like Bayraktar drones) (85 million), Japan (124 million), South Korea (51 million), Australia (25 million) . . . I'll stop there. I find it unlikely that the industrial capacity of Russia and available to it from North Korea, China, and Iran, exceeds the industrial capacity of Ukraine and its supporters. Russia is leveraging its nuclear arsenal to influence these supporters to calibrate their aid to Ukraine. Calibrated aid is resulting in net recovery of Ukrainian territory at a pace that does not induce Russia into "insensate nuclear spasm" (Herman Kahn's ladder of escalation). China is not lending full support to Russia because it is too interlinked to European and other Western markets for its prosperity. It is also focused on preparations for its own military goals. I will concede that North Korea can provide very significant quantities of artillery ammunition to Russia, but that is somewhat offset by the capacity and arsenal of South Korea available to Ukraine. Far from Russia having some plain and overwhelming advantage, the two sides are generally balanced in industrial capacity being applied to the war. This seems borne out by the current pace of the war. In terms of GDP of the two sides (including China), the West clearly has the advantage. It seems rational for the West to continue to provide force multiplying technologies to Ukraine that can improve the pace of recovering its jurisdiction. The conquistadors rebut the argument that a simple manpower variable determines military outcomes. Force multiplying technology was relevant then and is still relevant now.
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  4360.  @kaleido6551  The calibrated delivery of Western arms to Ukraine, rather than a full speed delivery, could be taken as an invitation to talks. But it is understandable that Russia will not set down its terms for a settlement until it has achieved its military goals. When it arrives at those goals, I expect Russia to ratchet up the nuclear threat and demand a cease fire. The response? Seems the West will not empower Ukraine to change facts on the ground, (although they talk this way to bolster Ukraine) but Russian forces in the field may be more exposed than usual at that goal achieving moment. They might dig in and just shell on. Ukraine might pick a favored spot to counter-attack with new long range artillery. Russia will further ratchet up the nuclear threat and make the Ukrainian counter-offensive as expensive for Ukraine as it can. That might bring things to a pause. I expect Russia will make some kind of demand for demilitarization of Ukraine as well. That will be a non-starter. The more Russia pounds Ukraine, the more NATO is going to strengthen its own defenses and strengthen Ukraine. Poland, what's left of Ukraine, the Baltics and somewhat Finland will be aided to create starker quality of life contrasts with Kaliningrad, Belarus, and even Russia itself. Russia will go very North Korean in the face of that kind of social, economic, and cultural influence campaign. The world oil and gas economy will shift and the transformation to renewable generation and use of electricity instead of fossil fuels will continue. China and India will probably continue as key Russian oil and gas customers. They will be less concerned about climate change and will make whatever adjustments to higher sea levels they have to. India will be pressured by both Russia and China to not drift toward the West. Germany will help develop the gas fields that remain under Ukrainian jurisdiction. The new borders may remind of the Berlin Wall and the Korean DMZ. Russian may have avoided full mobilization because the domestic economic damage may seriously weaken it, and it is ready to phase the conquest of Ukraine over a longer period of time. It will attempt to lull NATO over several years, tempting members with cheap oil and gas. Putin dies a victor before the next Ukrainian adventure.
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  4460.  @TheOne-ve7hs  In the case of Venezuela, if it can pay, that country can get almost anything it needs from Russia or China, and it does have agriculture and commercial fishing. But Russia, having considerable oil production skills, has only modest interest in helping Venezuela repair its oil industry, because any Venezuelan petroleum export capability would put downward pressure on the price of oil and thus downward pressure on Russian oil revenue. And neither Russia nor China are in much of a position to be charitable. Looking forward, US and Russian oil producers see many forces acting to reduce demand for their product. It makes perfect sense for them not to restore a Venezuelan petroleum export capability. Venezuela needs to find new ways to make a living. As in many countries, in Venezuela the classic pride of the accomplished stoked populism in the masses. And insolent populism chased Venezuelan skill right out of the country, leading to a significant loss of expertise and maintenance of the infrastructure and economy. Somehow the populists cannot get enough people interested in learning petroleum engineering and all the related engineering it takes to be a reasonably self-sufficient oil exporting nation. Perhaps it is another lesson in human limits of tolerance for income inequality. In the US, the people can and do have a lively public debate on social justice and make enough progress on it to keep its constitution. In other countries, one needs to be careful what one thinks.
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  4485. What is notable is that the Russians rarely seem to amass the necessary air and ground forces to take a strategic logistical city in short order. This was an assumed capability pre-Feb 2022. This inability reflects Russian ambition exceeding Russian capability. As they did in Georgia, the Russians likely would have succeeded in securing the full territory of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts if they had focused on that mission. The Ukrainians also need to take a careful look at their ambitions and capabilities. Ukraine has clearly established a national identity and obtained significant foreign support. A possible strategy involves placing Crimea at risk of total uselessness to Russia and bargaining for the recovery of the full territories of Kherson and Zaporizhya oblasts in exchange for an armistice. It is likely that Russia will violate the armistice, and that Ukraine and its allies should be prepared at that moment to make further recoveries of Ukrainian territory. Watch Russia make a great fuss about Western forces being stationed in Ukraine upon an armistice. They are likely to be successful in intimidating the West on this issue, but they will also be setting the stage for a round of losing rather than gaining ground. Holding Kherson and Zaporizhya keeps Crimea at risk. While Western forces may have only a light presence after an armistice, they can facilitate increased Ukrainian capabilities to rapidly render Crimea useless again. Wherever the line of armistice is established, the conditions of the iron curtain are likely to re-emerge, with Ukraine facing intense subversive efforts by the Russians until Russian militarization results in another "catastrophic" Russian economic implosion.
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  4752. It's an opening position. He's walking into a car dealership offering half price showing cash. Ukraine might as well present proportionately absurd demands. Ukraine might as well demand that in addition to withdrawing from all Ukrainian territory, Russia must keep all military forces of a certain size at lease 200km away from the Ukrainian border and Russia must accept NATO bases in Ukraine no closer than 200km from the Russian border. Both sides present their wish lists. Get Russia talking about its development plans for annexed territories. At this stage, talks can simply be about setting up logistics and credentials for an ongoing discussion. One topic where progress might occur is a suspension on attacks on civilian electric utility systems. Ukraine could look to the West for some kind of understanding that it needs to begin attacking the Russian electric utility system near to Ukraine to undermine Russian logistics that undergird the invasion. The goal would be that Russia shows a measure of good faith by ending attacks on the Ukrainian electric utility system. This could lead to other issues where mutual interests might converge on partial settlements. Out of this commitment to ongoing political negotiations an armistice might eventually be achieved. Mr. Putin should not be dismissed out of hand here. The United States should advance a plan to stabilize the relationship between Russian and China and each of those nations with the US. That can just start with the parties talking about what "stability" looks like.
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  4777.  @tealc6218  I live in the United States. I see more electric cars on the road every year. I see more wind turbines and solar farms every year. I see that drilling very deep shafts to tap geothermal power also resulted in the discovery of lithium that can help sustain efficient battery storage of electrical energy. I have witnessed how the application of more efficient lighting and air conditioning has reduced peak energy demand in my city even with a growing population. American electric utilities frequently choose solar now for summer peak generation because solar power plants can be permitted and built in a short time at a low cost. The price of solar panels has been reduced even below what was projected 25 years ago, and few people believed that solar power below $5/kw would be achieved. Some panels go for less than $1/kw. I have seen a whole array of technologies combined to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. We are farther along with all this than I as an engineer concerned with the practical and achievable thought possible. Will Europe succeed in minimizing fossil fuel use by 2050? It is up to them. The United States and others have demonstrated that it can be done. The United States is ambitious and aggressive and has a history full of sin. It is also a place where democracy and human rights allow creative human beings to flourish and produce technologies that others constantly try to steal. With 25% of the population of China, the US matches the Chinese economy. How do we do that? Don't project Russian methods on us. A lot of quiet, honest hard work goes on here, and it happens because it is generally rewarded. Over and over again I encounter the proclamations of Russian innocence. Yet Russian Orthodoxy cannot escape the confession that all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God. How amazing that the Soviet Union dissolved, and the Church remained. But clearly, the KGB remained, too. So atheism has made its deal with Orthodoxy, the opiate of the masses. When I look at Russia, I see the KGB/FSB as its remorseless elite. People of conscience do well to just get out of there.
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  4782. Would the Proud Boys be willing to offer AOC a security services agreement? I know they're a bit tied up right now, but still, it could blow some minds if they offered. Next topic, I am ethnocentric, and so are you. It's a finding of anthropology applying to all peoples. We're all more comfortable with the way we were brought up. Some of us are better at adjusting to other cultures than others. It often has to do with how financially and otherwise secure we are. But sometimes you might call multi-cultural tolerance a spiritual gift, a result of an inner transformation of the mind. God shows no partiality. But that's not where everyone is at. This piece just kind of glosses over the Antebellum South, the Civil War, the Klan, Woodrow Wilson, the segregated military and professional sports until the late forties, redlined zoning, and the list goes on but not in this lady's book. Some people do not want to adjust to other cultures. They want others to adjust to them. And I am saying that is an innate characteristic of human beings, a finding of anthropology, and that it takes a deliberate effort to adjust to a multi-cultural environment for the long run. It's easy to have a honeymoon with a new culture. Then you see things about it you don't like. Then you choose to adjust to it or not. Then you choose to accept it to some degree or not. Totalitarianism is when elections are considered pointless and abandoned. I don't think that is the way the American left is going. I think that is where the American right is going, but is defensively projecting their own sentiment onto the left. When AOC loses, will she say she really won, whatever the election officials say?
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  4814. I think Israel more accurately has two missions: 1) regime change of Hamas; 2) another installment of terrorizing the Palestinian people. The problem with telling Jews they are committing genocide is that Jews think of 6 million Jews dying in the Holocaust and then just not seeing themselves doing that to Gaza on that scale. Gaza never posts how many Hamas fighters are among the dead. And Americans can see the difference in casualties in the same way. Instead, all sides can look at what is happening as a sort of 9/11, a terrorist incident followed by a long-term attempt at retaliation and regime change. The US kicked the Taliban out of Afghanistan. Hamas conducts a terror campaign on 10/7/23. Israel is trying to kick Hamas out of Gaza. Israel also believes that terrorizing the population of Gaza will implant a future hesitancy on their part to avoid another 10/7 and to facilitate further annexations of land. Both Gazans and Israeli's have people who have concentrated power into a small group and do not represent the broader population. They are primarily responsible for the current violence. I am not ashamed to be an American because I see our State Department talking with any party that will talk to bring about a cease fire. Israel has US support. Gaza has Hezbollah support, a measure of Arab and Islamic support, Iranian support, and probably a whiff of Russian and Chinese support. I don't think it evenhanded to simply frame Gaza and Hamas as some little underdog. This is a multi-national conflict.
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  4817. I think what is being missed here is that the West is not providing the Russian public much cause to become militant and thus help Putin succeed in his program. Even Russian military targets can involve the death of family members and the ripple effects that go with that. On the flip side, Putin has to take care not to provoke the European and American public with obvious violence in their own countries that could rally a response on a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 scale. No doubt he has elements in his own regime that are not impressed with that kind of restraint. The Russian public could become militant this winter if Ukraine were to unleash what it has become more capable of doing, that is, a strong strike on the Russian electric grid at the coldest possible time. This could create the kind of death and calamity, essentially a large-scale apartment bombing, that Putin likes to think will fill the ranks with energy and dramatically advance his program and legacy. The Western program is the slow and steady weakening of the Russian military, and, to the extent possible, the FSB. It also is to put Russia in a position of being little help in a Chinese seizure of Taiwan. Jake is right to propose to European governments that the time to show Russia that this can go on and on to Russia's detriment is near. If Trump is of no assistance (and Trump and his MAGA world would be very pleased to see Europe fend for itself) then Europe will be facing a decisive moment. If the process of weakening Russia is reversed, they stand to lose their prime opportunity to salvage Ukraine and its great people and resources for Europe unless they act to continue the steady decline of the Russian regime. I don't think the answer on the next American administration is obtained quickly. It is very much in Russia's interest to destabilize the United States through covertly contracting American useful idiots. Russia was doing that in Ukraine and has done it in other European nations like Hungary and Georgia. Americans may very well experience something far more chaotic than the short disruption of January 6th if Trump does not win. If Trump does win, the Russians will be able to be more subtle and systematic in turning enough Americans toward Russian interests. The Russian military may be under a lot of stress, but I'm afraid the FSB is quite intact and ready to do the job.
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  4846. In the mind of the extremist, the jihad against the United States will never end as long as there is a United States, and for that matter, anyone who does not submit to them. Now the Taliban might argue with other extremists that they have done their share for a time and deserve a chance to bring Afghanistan up to, say, a more Pakistani or Iranian standard of living. First off there is all this equipment left behind to be sold on the black arms market. Not of all it is in Taliban control yet, and some of it will still get shot at them. But the Taliban arsenal and treasury is looking up. Who knows, they may find out there is just so much of Afghanistan that they can administer well. The Afghan Army strategy might very well be to retreat to a defensible position the Taliban would find too expensive to assault. The Taliban are getting spread out and there is less American money bleeding into their system to help them. The Afghan Army is shedding its dead weight and assessing its true believers, its primary ethnicity, and what they can accomplish. It might be more than zero. Strategically the neighborhood, Iran, Russia, the northern Xistans, China, Pakistan, and India, are left wondering what in terms of resources they can get out of Afghanistan vs. what they have to put in. The United States gets to turn its money faucet way down, and it needs to to bring its budget deficits under control, and free up experienced forces to deter China in the Pacific. This is a strategic adjustment that is considering what is ahead of us.
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  4873.  @ValFlr You are entitled to your narrative. Enjoy the free press. I have Ukrainian friends. They speak Russian. There is more to it than what you say. Has not Putin also said Ukraine is not a real nation? People in countries have grievances against their government. That is, as many autocracies are fond to claim, an internal affair not to be aggravated by foreign agents. There are mitigations of internal affairs short of being annexed by a neighbor. The Russian killing of Ukrainians is now out of all proportion to the allegation of 13,000 casualties inflicted by who knows. Feel what you will, I find the narrative a pretext for the continuing imperial conduct of Russia. Indeed, in the Budapest Memorandum, Russia offered to respect the Ukrainian borders. Russia has chosen acquisition over reputation. You are wrong on the matter of Ukrainian custody of Soviet nuclear weapons. The United States had and maintains the capability to rework nuclear weapons into new devices that would have been accessible and useful to Ukraine. The US and Ukraine chose a more peaceful and considerate route. Once again, Russia chooses acquisition over reputation. The matter of the Russian language is not valid because my Russian speaking Ukrainian friends have no interest in being brought under Russian jurisdiction. I have listened to many Russians who speak English. However, the fact that they do does not justify English-speaking nations coming to their rescue from a regime more repressive than you paint Ukraine. I'll cite the Gulag and the Holodomor, and the undue killing of Ukrainian civilians in the current war as my premises. The original polls of Ukrainian sentiment on jurisdiction showed Crimea to have the largest minority percentage in favor of Russian jurisdiction. But it was a minority. The most aggrieved Ukrainians have had ample time to migrate to their perception of a better life under Russian jurisdiction. I think they will be given another chance to make the move. Their costs of relocation could be a matter of negotiation. Note the latest Armenian migration. I doubt we persuade each other, sir. Russian culpability for hundreds of thousands of deaths is too clear. Russia should cease fire and retreat to its internationally recognized border.
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  4877. Anything left of Ukraine is likely to become more militarized if it is not a part of NATO, and Russia should consider that. European NATO countries have generally underspent on defense because they have NATO. I thought Russia wanted Ukraine less militarized. Given Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a Ukrainian arms buildup is just common sense going forward. Left out of the commentary here has been Ukrainian public opinion. I'm not aware a majority of the Ukrainian people were ready to take the deal in April 2022, but Ukrainian agency is often underrated. My Ukrainian friend told me, "We don't want Russian mind control." Boris Johnson represented a struggling British economy and here comes Zelensky, not joyfully announcing he has a deal with Putin, but representing a people ready to fight for their country (and obviously a lot of them have). It's a Russian rhetorical twist (which they are experts at, obviously) to characterize that exchange as British imperialism rather than a courageous statement of support for justice amidst stress. Zelensky did not want the deal, but he knew he needed Western support going forward and he had to ask for it and get it or he would need to take that deal, bad as it was. And why would Ukraine have any confidence in an impotent UN security guarantee or even a US security guarantee given the fickleness of the American voters as a whole, Trump or no Trump? The nations Ukraine would sensibly turn to for alliance would be such as Poland, the Baltics, and Finland. They all have a large stake in this fight. And fortunately for Ukraine, the nations to the west also show some support and would probably be open to forming a new alliance that has agency without dependence on the US or other European nations who have swung to the Russian side. The forfeiture of decent values here is appalling. The submission to Russian depravity is appalling. It should cost Russia something in any deal. If territorial concessions are needed to end the war, Russia should not be at all surprised that it will face a more united and militarized set of nations on its border and even a more united and militarized Europe that is SUPERIOR to Russia in the practical (non-nuclear) metrics Russia leans on to assert Ukrainian defense is futile. The US may lift its sanctions, but Europe is unlikely to return to the level of economic empowerment of Russia it was making before. Europe is going to continue to move away from fossil fuels, not only to mitigate climate change, but to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. That Russia is shifting its business plan to market minerals it has seized by murderous force in Ukraine all the more reveals its depravity. Russia will have to look elsewhere to build the strength it needs to deter China from reclaiming historically Chinese lands. Russia knows if Europe leans into this conflict more than it has then it knows its prospects are not good. Small victories on the battlefield are no substitute for a healthy economy, decent morale in the population, and friendly relations with a wide range of trading partners. The loss of Russia's client in Syria, the collapse of Cuban electrical service, and the unwillingness of China (the unlimited friend) to assist Russia in a quick occupation of the entirety of Ukraine shed doubt on the notion that Russia is winning strategically. What the narrative reveals is the Russian leadership's need to believe it is winning, something the West has used to weaken Russia strategically. The Soviets had a similar narrative of innocence, infallibility, and infinite resources. It was a paradigm that led to self-defeat. Putin is behaving like a Soviet in that sense. Would Professor Sachs say he is thoroughly aware of how Russia influences people, and that he has immunized himself?
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  4910. As an American and an electrical engineer, I support Ukraine in its war against Russia. I have Ukrainian guests in my home. But on the subject of Ukraine's electrical system, I must point out that this is not a new tactic on Russia's part. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, which was wrong on Iraq's part, the following happened: More than 90 percent of Iraq’s electrical capacity was bombed out of service in the first hours of the “Gulf war”[17]. This comprised the country’s 11 major electrical power stations and 119 substations[18]. Existing generating capacity of 9,000 MW in December 1990 was reduced to only 340 MW by March 1991[19]. The United States apparently had designed a special weapon specifically to shut down Iraq’s electric power[20]. US Air Force officers acknowledged that targeting Iraq’s infrastructure (including the electrical power system) was related to an effort “to accelerate the effect of the sanctions”, that is to “degrade the will” of the civilian population and encourage it to overthrow Saddam Hussein[21]. Col. John A. Warden III, the deputy director of strategy, doctrine and plans for the U.S. Air Force, explained the rationale for targeting Iraq’s electricity system to Barton Gellman of the Washington Post: Saddam Hussein cannot restore his own electricity. He needs help. If there are political objectives that the UN coalition has, it can say, “Saddam, when you agree to do these things, we will allow people to come in and fix your electricity.” It gives us long-term leverage[22]. (emphasis added) Military analysts contacted by Gellman estimated that it would take about a year to repair destroyed transformers or switching yards – with Western assistance – but that repairing main generator halls bombed by the United States would take five years[23]. Pentagon officials, contacted by Gellman, declined to offer written explanations on the specific military relevance of 28 electrical targets. A planning officer contacted by Gellman said People say, “You didn’t recognize that it was going to have an effect on water or sewage”. Well, what were we trying to do with[the] sanctions - help out the Iraqi people? No. What we were doing with the attacks on infrastructure was to accelerate the effects of the sanctions[24]. Lt. Gen. Charles A. Horner, who had overall command of the air campaign, tried to downplay the injurious intent of destroying the electrical infrastructure by explaining to Gellman that the “side benefit”[of destroying the infrastructure] was ”the psychological effect on ordinary Iraqi citizens of having their lights go out.”[25]. So what Russia is doing is not new. I don't like it. I hope Ukraine's allies are rapidly providing replacement parts and even linemen and substation technicians to help restore power. I hope we have been providing diesel fuel and containerized, distribution voltage rated, diesel standby generators to Ukraine all this time to rapidly restore partial power to key surviving infrastructure and complicate Russia's targeting of electrical service. If we are going to call this a war crime, then I hope we have done what we could do for the Iraqi people to restore their infrastructure. We should be looking to seized Russian assets to help Ukraine.
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  4963. My professor of Western history at U of SC - Shaw AFB was from Egypt. He gave very good lectures, and we liked him. I figured he was a part of the diplomatic good will efforts between the US and Saudi Arabia at the time, together fending off the Soviet atheists. He let us know he was also a mullah, or Islamic teacher, and he spent part of a class session going over the basics of Islam, which was fine, because the West has been interacting with Islam for centuries. We felt quite free to ask questions, and he was forthcoming in answering them. Friendly guy. However, we students, who almost all were members of the USAF and had taken an oath to defend the US Constitution, got very quiet when the professor said that one of the basics of Islam is that there is no separation of Islam (or church) and the state. I saw that as a fundamental incompatibility between the US and Islam. Being something of missionary myself, I could easily imagine the duty of any earnest Muslim to be the transition of all governments in the world to Islamic Republics, culminating in a world caliphate. In their minds this is the will of Allah, God, and Islam could be explained to people until it could be essentially imposed on them. I am not of the view that having a Muslim upbringing is an immediate disqualification for immigration to the United States. We are the beneficiaries of excellent physicians and other professionals who have had such an upbringing. They strike me as quite moderate in their views and prefer life in the US but do speak of looking forward to visiting family back in the home country. But I do have to wonder why sending nations are not more introspective about why some of their best people choose to leave. There is a thing known as the Protestant work ethic, that I think even atheists have to acknowledge has something to do with generating prosperous societies that attract people from all over the world. So, I think it best for the world, that these societies reasonably preserve their distinctions and their prosperity while holding out to anyone who will listen, the values that bring about that prosperity for application in what are now sending nations.
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  4987.  @djordjelezajic8435  Russia has a large corps of diplomats and spies all over the world. Russia has been involved in Cuba, Africa, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria, and Vietnam. It is a world oil market player, and therefore has the money to develop interests anywhere it sees fit. Russia is not an isolationist country, it is an empire, and acts like an empire, not a victim. The difference between Russian leadership and Western leadership is the difference between psychopathy and empathy, although the West certainly has its psychopaths. Psychopathic leadership is smart with a "strength" and victory paradigm but is less emotionally intelligent because the empathic area of the psychopathic brain is less active than neurotypical brains. It has, as you infer, a craving for respect and understanding that is rarely, if ever, satisfied. This leads to choices that demoralize the generally larger, neurotypical "weak" population under their control. There is less productivity and more corruption. "They pretended to pay us. We pretended to work." Dissent is imprisoned rather than redirected into improvement, unless military equipment manufacturing is involved, and even then, one must walk on eggshells. Vodka eases the pain, but shortens lives. My Ukrainian friends gave me a couple of books to help understand the situation a bit better, Svetlana Alexievich's "Second-Hand Time" and Anne Applebaum's "Red Famine". These books are available in Western public libraries. I suspect they are not available in Russian public libraries. After reading them, I better understood my Ukrainian friends disinterest in what they termed "Russian mind control". And some of us see what Russia is trying to do in social media posts. They try to create a sense of fatalism in the outside world, just as they create it in their own populations. It may create the thrill of victory for a few, but it is self-defeating, e.g., the Soviet Union. I am not de-mobilized, obviously.
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  5023.  @woodstream6137  I was an aircraft systems maintainer in the USAF. At that time one went through three levels of training (3,5, and 7) on each system to be among those who can keep aircraft at a high level of operational readiness. Someone with other experience might be able to jump ahead into the highest level of training (7), but there is also something to long experience with a system for the unusual problems that often arise. Nothing like institutional memory, the troop that saw that problem 5 years ago. What can help Ukraine is having access to those troops with supplemental imagery and translation software. The Ukrainian air force really cannot afford a lot of learning curve once the F16s are in country. I am not a pilot, but I have reviewed Air Force Manual 11-2F16 and related documents, and what one might call the basic qualifying course for American F-16 pilots is normally one year. And the course and technical manuals for the F16 are in English. This year does not include the more specialized training that goes into SEAD missions nor, to my knowledge does it include Red Flag combat exercises. Red Flag was established to improve the survival rate of pilots without combat experience. Ukrainian pilots have combat experience, but not with F16 systems. I think for them to have a fighting chance they need to go through a Red Flag customized to the Ukrainian-Russian battlespace. So to me it looks like two years of training is being crammed into one. Thus the one-year prediction.
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  5049.  @theallseeingeye9388  The fact that Germany is in NATO did not prevent Germany from purchasing Russian oil and gas for billions of euros every year. Let that sink in. Why would Ukraine in NATO necessarily mean that Russia would not have had access to Ukrainian markets? The obvious reason for Russian opposition to NATO is that NATO limits Russian control of markets and resources in adjacent nations. That is, they cannot over time be brought under a greater degree of Russian influence, control, or ultimately jurisdiction. The security of any small nation bordering Russia without being in a sufficient security alliance is, demonstrably via the war in Ukraine, precarious, whatever has been said on paper. It is a chronic feature of comments in support of Russia that they evade Russian responsibility for anything. Neurotypical human beings see this to varying degrees as a failure of the Russian psyche. To quote the text held dear by the Russian Orthodox Church, "All have sinned and fall short of the glory of God." Christians are, or should be, honest about their mistakes. America has made plenty of mistakes (U-2, Bay of Pigs, Zaire, My Lai, derivatives, OIF, too many years in Afghanistan, etc.). But the success of our economy, our space and military technology, and our culture indicates that we sometimes learn from our mistakes. The Russian psyche seems so terrified of the shame of error that they do anything to evade dealing honestly with error and honestly with other nations. That is a nation that is very uncomfortable to live next to, a nation led by the "perfect" wielding nuclear weapons and a clear willingness to callously spend the lives of its lesser residents. Any sane person is going to seek help protecting themselves from such a mentality. And Russians can keep proving that point by continuing to assert Russian innocence, Russian infallibility, Russian expansion, and Russian infinite capability. The Western ideal is the conversation, and here we are on YouTube.
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  5101. I see many valid comments about A-10 vulnerability to AD. I would never expect A-10s to be used by themselves in Ukraine until the relevant AD in the area had been reduced to mostly MANPADS for a window of time. The enemy is not always on his toes and ready with a MANPAD in the right place. It is a given that advancing infantry can achieve an objective but will experience casualties as they do. A-10s in Ukraine would get shot down, but some of them would deliver heavier missiles and bombs than 100lb 155mm shells. They would be used as part of package to create a breakthrough, and for that, if they can contribute meaningfully to that breakthrough, losing a squadron of them in the process is still worthwhile. Think of the Army Air Force casualties in WWII. It's sad. It could have been done better, but there was a sense that the sacrifice was worth it. One such mission with A-10s in Ukraine would face the Russians with the task of either suffering another breakthrough or trying to hunt down dispersed A-10s. The Russians would have fewer missiles for residential apartment buildings and other civilian targets. That, too, has value. These jets are headed for Davis-Monthan, probably until they are totally scrapped or put in a museum. If there is nothing else available in the short run for Ukraine, then I think there is an argument for having the A-10 go down fighting. Remember VT-8, Battle of Midway. Ukraine has already experienced this measure of loss. They have weakened the Russian defense. They need to get through it.
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  5139. There are a lot of major problems going on within Russia right now. I don't recall Putin listing US economic collapse as a war objective. I recall pretext about Nazis, demilitarizing Ukraine, NATO "expansion" (liberty from Russia), and rescuing supposedly oppressed Russian speakers in the Donbas. Whatever its particular set of problems, the US and the West's population and their economies outweigh that of Russia, yet Russia presents itself as essentially infinitely resourced and infinitely capable. That is delusion and hubris. What Russia has, next to China, is the world's most potent system for domestic control, which gives the leadership of the regime an outsized sense of power. At the same time, that domestic control does not create a large mass of motivated soldiers. The regime obviously sees the common soldier as expendable. This lack of empathy and undue sense of power has led Russian leadership to a large-scale confrontation with its own limits, right up to waving its nuclear cards. Limits and loss are something very uncomfortable for the regime's psyche. In the West, loss more often leads to evaluation, correction, and returning to compete again. What Russia does is look at the speck that is in someone else's eye, and not at the plank that is in it's own. It is a form of avoidance behavior. "Everything is going according to plan and will be fine." Delusion and hubris. The US government, in consultation with the people of the US, and of course its special interests, are in a continuous and often contentious dialogue of self-improvement. In Russia, people have to be very careful about complaining about the government's plans. The Russian regime is driving people out of their country and essentially committing the genocide of tens of thousands of Russian speakers, be they Russian or Ukrainian Russian speakers, for the sake of the leadership's vanity. Millions of foreigners are trying to get INTO the US. Why? Usually, to make more money, because it is here to be made. The Russian population is far less than it should be because of the practices of the Soviet and Russian regimes, and the trend does not look good for Russia at all. But no worries, China, with its own problems, yet with its huge population and economy, will help manage things in the Russia of the future. That's something even Putin is scared to talk about.
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  5157.  @L98fiero  The illogic here is that somehow the US/NATO has superior competence to the FSB when it comes to installing governments in nations that border Russia. Read "The Human Factor: Inside the CIA's Dysfunctional Intelligence Culture." I would think the FSB would be more willing to admit the agency of the Ukrainian people than indirectly admit to their own incompetence in their own backyard. I think most honest assessments of intelligence agencies would rate the FSB superior to the CIA, and I say that as an American. I think an honest assessment of Ukraine in 2014 was that it primarily and decisively went the way it did because of the agency of the Ukrainian people, professional agents on both sides literally notwithstanding the trend of a popular revolt. Of course, the possibility of such agency in Russia is of tantamount concern to the Russian regime. But I think they can count on the sufficient continuity of their control over the Russian population. The problem was such control over the Ukrainian population had been too little for too long. Ukrainians grew up in or got used to not having the regime keeping them under control to the degree that happens in Russia. To quote a Ukrainian I know, they feel more "free" compared to Russians. And enough of them remembered what life in Russia was like (these Ukrainian friends gave me a copy of Svetlana Alexievich's "Second-Hand Time") and wanted nothing of that lifestyle. In a "rules based international order" Russia would have as much access to the Ukrainian market as any other country, and international forums to air grievances in about injustices. It would seem that Russia is not satisfied with mere access to markets, it insists on a high degree of control of them in adjacent states, or else Mariupol. The "meddling" is not from a West that is profit oriented or culturally oriented or just on vacation. It is from Russia, with its superior intelligence services and its own imperial inclinations since the time of Catherine and Potemkin.
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  5175.  @starchild692  Soviet concern with American nuclear missiles in Turkey was as valid as American concern with nuclear missiles in Cuba. The American justification for the invasion of Iraq was flawed. Iraq did not have WMD. Many Americans see the errors of that war. Hussein was a threat to his neighbors, having the world's fourth largest military at that time, but that threat, similar in some ways to the Russian threat to its smaller neighbors, could have been countered by alliances of neighbors rather than an American invasion. The American invasion of Iraq was wrong, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong. There are certainly arrogant forces in the American business community that prod the government to use the military to advance their interests, but there are also moderating forces that restrain that arrogance. The US does not invade Cuba or Nicaragua or Venezuela just because it has potential interests and could invade any of those countries. America does restrain itself. "yet you fail to see the russians security concern in the Ukrainan scenario which is hundredfolds of that of Cuba." C'mon, that's hyperbole. It was a win-win when Ukraine relinquished its share of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. Nukes in Ukraine would have been even worse than nukes in Turkey, and all parties saw that and came to an agreement. And the 1994 Budapest Memorandum by Russia, the US, Britain, and Ukraine was intended to secure Ukraine's borders and Russia's security. The US and Britain did train Ukraine's military, but pulled their advisors out when Russia invaded. That pull out was an attempt to de-escalate the situation, but has been largely ignored by Russia. Russia has only made its security worse by invading Ukraine. All adjacent nations that value their independence will enlarge their armed forces and invite American forces to establish permanent bases. Economic sanctions will remain in place as long as Russia postpones a settlement agreement in an attempt to increase its gains in Ukraine. Rather than take responsibility for its disrespect of its neighbors, Russia projects its own arrogance onto the US and its neighbors, who did not invade Russia. Russia's "security concerns", especially in light of Ukraine's relinquishment of nuclear weapons and Russia's primacy in having the world's largest nuclear arsenal, are exaggerated to advance its own economic and imperial agenda. America, too, is an empire. I do not deny that. There are numerous domestic justice issues with First Nations and African Americans whose ancestors were slaves. We work on these things. Progress is slow, but perhaps Barack Obama was evidence that there is good will in America, not just arrogance. One must understand how Anti-Social Personality Disorder impacts Russian leadership and its narratives. One aspect of that is blaming everyone else for one's problems, rather than facing one's own responsibility for one's problems. That is called "projection." And Russian leadership does a lot of projection. That is, in part, why the system of government they have set up is self-defeating. But, of course, they blame everyone else.
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  5202. We are seeing larger warheads and cluster warheads having an impact, e.g. dry dock in Sevastopol. 155mm shells weigh about 100lbs. While certainly not pleasant, personnel in a trench line can survive bombardment by this class of ammunition. The 500lb, 1000lb, and 2000lb munitions that can be delivered by F16s, often in the form of stand-off glide bombs with inertial guidance, are another matter. Russia is issuing warnings about F16s because they see a genuine threat. It makes sense to me that Ukraine is not going to push on infantry assaults now if it is just a few months away from the capability to package SEAD and heavy munition air strikes on Russian defenses. The mud is irrelevant, in fact it suppresses any Russian counterattack. Ukraine can rotate and rest its troops while its larger air force pounds Russian defenses. Will F-16s get shot down? Yes. But F-35s will continue to cycle into NATO and NATO F-16s can then cycle into Ukraine. 155mm should be saved for what it is appropriate for. If the southern Russian defense has 200,000 personnel, and if that army collapses when half of those personnel become casualties that cannot return to the fight, then it still takes 400 days for Ukraine to attrit that 100,000 at an average of 250 casualties per day. And it is somewhat doubtful that Ukraine achieves that average. Russia will probably get better with time at minimizing defensive casualties, even with 1000lb bombs falling on them. If they are not being assaulted by infantry, then they just stay spread out over the defensive lines while their air force and air defense learns how to take out F16s. Taking out Russian rail and road links to its forces in Ukraine is essential. If Russia can maintain its logistics, then it can maintain its bombardment of Ukrainian positions and infrastructure and it will be the UAF that collapses. Ukraine does not have to establish air superiority to drive out Russian forces. It does need the air power to SEAD and open windows of opportunity to strike targets with heavy bombs anywhere in or near Ukraine. Those targets need to include the Russian rail system near as well as within Ukraine, or Russia will probably be able to sustain its occupation.
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  5223. The Kremlin feels it has to put on a show for the Russian people every day. They are trying to get Russians riled up to improve enlistment in the armed forces so they can overwhelm Ukraine. Does anybody have any sense of the average Russian's ability to get a variety of news that isn't written by Moscow? If the Kremlin sees they are losing the information war in Russia, that would be a vital component to bringing this to an end. Geographically, yes Crimea has that combination of attributes that compels Russia to heavily defend it and Ukraine to take it. That battle could make Bakhmut look small, and I don't know that Russia would ever stop bombing the Ukrainian held parts of Crimea until its own economy went into collapse. Until then attacking Crimea could take considerable pressure off of other parts of Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense would be challenged by the expansion of territory to be protected. Ukraine needs both roads into Crimea, and clearly the Russians know this. I was pleased to hear Ukraine was receiving riverine assets, but they would need a lot of these to effectively supplement logistics via truck on the roads, and the Russians may have a focus on disrupting riverine operations. Ukraine has been collecting Russian tanks. They need to collect Russian boats, not just to get into Crimea, but to get back the rest of Kherson Oblast. D-Day and cross Channel logistics are indeed relevant and informative, and Ukraine will need to establish long-term naval (something like squadrons of road transportable PT boats with drones) and amphibious and/or drone resupply capabilities if it is going to hold Crimea.
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  5245. And is this what China wants to show the world: self-fulfilling paranoia? In large measure, China is an export economy. Now the CCP is engaging in bad customer service and bad manners by using words like "smash" and "fire" toward people who buy their products! They are showing their true colors. The CCP is all heady with what the rest of the world has helped it accomplish, thinking they did it all by themselves. People are starting to look for other places to shop. Yes, capitalism is addicted to cheap labor, so it eagerly went to China. Raising Chinese wages will just lead to capital looking for cheap labor somewhere else, and it already is. This leaves the CCP contemplating the conquest of its markets in order to secure them for itself, a criminal syndicate economy. The world sees it, and seeks to contain it, and that drives the CCP crazy because of the way the CCP thinks. What did North Korea do in the face of Western power? It built a nuclear arsenal right under the CCPs nose. Every island and small nation is pondering the North Korean example. China does not control North Korea? Ok, how about the United States does not control Taiwan, or South Korea, or Japan, or India, or Vietnam, or the Philippines, or Australia, or Indonesia, etc. How surrounded will China feel then? The CCP is self-defeating. They have shown their hand, and the world will have to wait for a better generation to come to leadership. There was a Western effort to build trust, and it now has been answered with "smash" and "fire". The sooner the CCP reforms itself, the better it will be for the Chinese people and their neighbors.
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  5283. Tripping of HR1 and LR1 raises the possibility of the differential relay protecting TR1 operating, indicating a transformer fault rather than a fault on a bus. This is not the kind a fault to reclose on. It is a bit stunning that this does not result in the system restoring power to the main diesel engine auxiliary systems fast enough to avoid their protective shut down. It is common for emergency generators to be online 10 seconds after an engine start signal. If no other relays detected a bus fault somewhere, then Breakers HR2 and LR2 could have been set to close automatically and restore power to the low side bus in less than 10 seconds, even less than 5 seconds. And that transfer operation could have been set up to happen automatically and promptly without expensive additional equipment. If there was also a bus fault on the low side of TR1, then opening LVR might isolate the faulted bus. Critical equipment, like the main engine auxiliary equipment, should have a transfer switch to switch to the remaining energized bus within the time necessary to avoid auxiliary shut down. Main engine auxiliary systems should be supplied by two bus sections that can be sectionalized from a fault through use of a transfer switch. The auxiliary systems themselves should have redundant equipment to avoid a single point of failure that cripples the ship as in this case. Again, this can all be programmed, logical operation of the protective relay system. Such systems are to be tested on a periodic basis and the testing documented and available for inspection. A pilot should have the authority to conduct such an inspection before the ship leaves the dock. I am confident that the NTSB has access to very good protective relaying systems expertise and that new standards will come out of this incident. It is possible to sabotage a transformer.
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  5290.  @fear_the_smile961  I will join your dad in adding some talking point gibberish: 1) ethnocentrism is a real thing that can be used to manipulate people into violence; 2) some people reduce their ethnocentrism by making acquaintances with people outside their group and learn to live together in peace; 3) large migrations of human beings can cause social unrest; 4) ethnocentrism and religious differences contributed to the failure of the original UN program to settle post WWII European Jews (victims of a large scale genocide) in Palestine/Israel; 5) intentional destabilization of a region creates security concerns that can be exploited to establish increased influence in the region, both the US and Russia do this anywhere there is oil and other important resources; 6) Persia wants to be an empire again, and they have found they can influence their region by escalating violence with ethnocentric roots; 7) the Middle East largely sees Israel as an American/European colony planted in what should purely be the Islamic Empire. Yes, this is about who gets the oil wealth, ethnocentrism and religion being used as tools to enlist fortune seekers into war. Children are innocent until they are old enough to pick a side. The UN program to relocate European Jews was in some measure an admission that ethnocentrism in Europe was so severe when it came to Jews that any attempt to re-integrate them into some European societies was futile. It is possible to purchase land and jurisdiction (see Alaska, Gadsden, Louisiana Territory). I have yet to see a sound logical argument that Anthony Blinken is a liar. Is it too hard?
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  5295. That's a bargaining position. Remember the Soviet Union deferred on infrastructure development to focus on matching or exceeding the West in military power. That was fine as long as oil prices were good. Look up the history of oil prices in the 80s. They dropped and the Soviet Union was ended. For a time the world enjoyed the end of the cold war and economies improved. The American budget finally ran a surplus. The Chinese and Russian economies improved. Then the US wasted power on Iraq and Afghanistan. Then China and Russia decided to be imperial again, and the world is again at an increasing level of war. Russia needs to consider that as climate change becomes more apparent to more people, the sale of oil and gas will have to go down just to save this planet's ecosphere. Russia's long-term planning appears to be about restoring a large military. It's the same mistake the Soviets made. This tendency seems to be a part of Russian leadership DNA. It is obsessed with winning the next thing. Ukraine is going to try to get Crimea back, and it might be able to do it. It is also in Ukraine's interest to shorten its border with Russia in eastern Ukraine because it will be easier to defend from Russia in the future. That might be what Russia wins in this conflict: large amounts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and a stable border with Ukraine. That border is likely to look like the DMZ between North and South Korea. There probably will not be "NATO" forces in Ukraine. Per the Budapest Memorandum, there probably will be rotations of British and American forces in Ukraine. Polish and other forces from selected European countries are likely to rotate in and out as well. Ukraine will not be defendable without them. No other options . . . maybe. That's part of a bargaining position for Ukraine. The parties need to look at the Budapest Memorandum. If Russia is not going to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, then, in order to prevent the next Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine (like North Korea) will need to have nuclear weapons. The Budapest Memorandum was a great deal in the service of reducing Russian paranoia. Ukraine did not later build a nuclear arsenal, but Russia busted the deal with its disrespect of the Ukrainian border. The only excuse for ending that respect would have been Ukraine building a nuclear arsenal. Now Russia, because of its disrespect, deserves to face a Ukrainian nuclear arsenal. That's a bargaining position. I'll bet you don't like it. I don't like yours either. Have some more moderate ideas?
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  5346. I support raising the gun purchase age to 21 based on recent history. And honestly, does the gun community think 18 to 20 year-olds are absolutely necessary to fend off some looming government takeover? I also support systematic programs of installing effective doors, windows, locks, and lock monitoring systems in schools. Do you check your doors and locks when you leave your home or turn in for the night? Effective aircraft cockpit walls, doors, locks and the doors being locked during flight would have made a significant difference in the outcome of the 9/11 attacks. Note how the hijackers used them to keep passengers out of the cockpit. When was the last time a large commercial aircraft was violently taken over by a passenger? We keep our doors locked at our office while we work. We assess who is knocking at the door. Building occupants often realize that simple, routine measures can buy valuable time in a crisis. Locked doors can eventually be defeated, but they buy time to carry out countermeasures. Soon, systems of cameras and artificial intelligence software will be able to very diligently scan for armed persons and provide school resource officers with much improved situational awareness. Cameras in classrooms could remain dormant in non-emergency conditions. They would need to be tested periodically, which is a perfectly sensible thing to have on an SROs checklist of duties. There are a lot of security measures beyond the occasionally successful good guy with a gun that are presently employed in buildings. School children deserve the best of these measures. Scalia said a person is not obliged to militia "service". That can be interpreted however, to mean that a person could be obliged to meet militia qualifications prior to obtaining arms. That vetting process would seem entirely within the scope of duties of a well-regulated militia. Do note at the time of composing the Constitution that leading men had very definite ideas about who should not have a weapon. The Second Amendment needs just one word added, even though we already practice, per Scalia in Heller, infringement. That word would modify "not be infringed" to "not be unduly infringed." The standards of what is "due" would come from weapons rules established by well-regulated militias.
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  5351.  @dede4004  So your husband has a PhD in education. So he knows that Donald Trump probably had Conduct Disorder as a child and graduated into full blown ASPD as an adult. And so, knowing that, your husband is recommending to us all that we always elect a sociopath for President? I prefer a President with a conscience, thank you. In a free country I get to vote for that, although I voted for Brian Carroll, American Solidarity Party. And what, exactly, is Common Core in your mind? Jeb Bush advocated for it. I thought the most developed part of it was what math kids needed to know, wherever they live, because money exists in most places in the United States. Math is also a way to learn the basics of logic, which is a part of common sense. A = A. If A = B and B = C, then A = C. Not all conclusions are self-evident. False premises do not produce valid or sound arguments. "Still, it's the math component that has drawn the most criticism. In order to help students develop problem solving skills useful in many areas of life, the Core's focus on "conceptual" math requires students to understand the reasoning behind the correct answers to math problems. It's a major shift, and many parents are finding it near impossible to help their children do their homework." -- Harvard Ed. Magazine. What does this mean? It means many parents are unable to express to their children how to reason, which means many parents do not themselves possess common sense. Which to me, explains why so many people would vote for a sociopath for President. Makes sense.
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  5459. More than once I have read that the Russians feel that escalating political events that occur over days would be the more likely scenario than "out of the blue". If Ukraine ever starts seriously pushing Russia back out of its territory, that will be a possible scenario for a nuclear scorched earth retreat. I think this is a reason among others why General Hodges talks about making an oblast like Crimea "untenable" for the Russians rather than outright taking it back under Ukrainian control. The Russians don't have to retreat, but nor can they make profitable use of the territory they have seized. Scorching that earth would just be hurting themselves more. Nuking areas of Ukraine they do not control invites Jake Sullivan's "catastrophic response". That would probably involve other nations repelling any further advance of Russian forces in Ukraine with conventional weaponry and further destruction of the logistical support of all Russian forces in Ukraine. None of this response need occur outside Ukraine in its early phases. An Allied nuclear weapon(s) may be a suitable way to take out the Kerch Bridge. It need not result in high collateral damage like taking out the Russian HQ for Ukrainian operations in Rostov on Don, and it is somewhat less provocative than doing that. Nuclear weapons can also inflict more enduring damage to the Russian rail network that supports the war. Detonations could occur in less populated stretches of the rail lines. Russian forces would be significantly weakened by the dramatically reduced supply of ammunition. They would also lose air superiority and begin to see their remaining holdings increasingly untenable. The fate of the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant would seem to be a wild card. There is a very tense scenario ahead of us, but the plan seems to be to continue to weaken Russia and strengthen Ukraine to reach a point of culmination in the conflict. The slow boiling frog method may still be the way to go, that is, small Ukrainian gains over time, none of which seem to Putin to merit a nuclear escalation. You keep him thinking he is winning here and there, letting his troops move ahead while he doesn't care that most of them are lost in the process. He just takes the land gain as a win and forgets about the people. Seems to be his MO so far.
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  5471. This interview improves my opinion of Tulsi Gabbard but does not satisfy what I would like to see in a Director of National Intelligence. I appreciate very much that she supports the US Constitution and free speech. I have my doubts about the Trump administration's support of the Constitution and free speech. As a politician she has learned to an extent how to use vagueness and populist themes. I appreciate that she has been a local and state politician, and she demonstrates that experience. The tragedy of life on Earth is that often cultures compete for more power, and more often than not they are led by the remorseless. In my view the proper way to respond to this reality is through alliance, that is a shared responsibility to deter or defeat unlawful aggression. I am concerned that she will act to shape an isolationist policy, rather than alliance, and that we will observe the further subordination of cultures to empires. We will be evermore tempted to then trade with tyrants, having fewer choices in markets that we need to be in. Tulsi strikes me as a person of conscience but does not evidence the vocabulary of someone with a broad and deep understanding of Christianity. Many politicians go to Christianity to get the votes. Christianity teaches us to take great care in how we speak of someone else (yes, I put myself at risk here). I suppose we will find out how autocratic the Trump administration is in part by listening to Tulsi Gabbard, a freedom advocate, in her interactions with that administration.
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  5500.  @bobbyschannel349  I think Cuba (Bay of Pigs) taught the United States that its control of its neighbors is limited. I am not sure why Mexico would not want to trade with the US and China, maintaining respectful relations with both. Alliances are made when a threat is perceived. There was war between the US and Mexico, but today the level of cooperation is pretty high, though drug and other trafficking syndicates are in a war with both Mexico and the US. I lived out in Beaumont (on the 10) for ten years, and worked for the City of Colton, very much a multi-cultural municipality, but my experience there was very positive. While you see Mexican nationalism displayed in Southern California, I think there is an acknowledgement that something about the American system is a bit better. I think the whole world would condemn the US if it did to Mexico what Russia is doing to Ukraine because Mexico and China built a joint military base to secure influence over a new Chinese canal through Nicaragua. I would expect the US to use trade sanctions, but not military intervention, because the trade sanctions would probably be more than enough to have any Chinese military presence in Mexico diminished to embassy attaché presence. I just don't see the comparison as valid. Anthropology has established than ethnocentrism is part of the human condition. Ethnic minorities, because of their situation, develop adaptive strategies to survive. Ethnic majorities generally do not have to, and thus they lack experience in multi-cultural settings. I have Ukrainians sheltering in my home, and I have noted their lack of multi-cultural experience, and I have explained that to them, and I find they are willing to learn to adjust. I have had the benefit of many multi-cultural experiences and even attended classes in it, and a three month long immersive experience in which I was in the minority and subordinated by the other culture. This does not make me a professional diplomat between races, but it gives me understanding of human behavior, that ethnocentrism is not uniquely white, and that one can learn multi-cultural skills as minorities have to. The treatment of blacks in Ukraine was wrong, but the context was that of inexperienced, non-cosmopolitan Ukrainians, and, probably, a few genuine racists in power in the situation. Apologies were made. If a third world country trades its goods for Russian wheat or oil, it is understandable for it to be quiet on the subject of Ukraine. But yes, its ok to point out Ukrainian ethnocentrism. If they want to be a part of Europe, then they need to make adjustments to multi-culturalism. I encourage you to be critical of all narratives. It is best when we speak from personal experience. It is hard work to make sound, logical arguments, and I see your effort to do so, and appreciate it. Part of understanding what is going on is to understand Anti-Social Personality Disorder, or psychopathy or sociopathy. I am not at all saying that is your condition, as there is evidence of conscience in your choice of words. I am proposing you increase your understanding of it to add to your perspective on Russian leadership and their narratives. Why should a nation with more nuclear warheads than any other, Russia, have "security concerns" due to small non-nuclear nations on its border? Russia does not act afraid. It acts opportunistically and imperially. It is an empire as is the United States. NATO, or the Chinese or North Korean model, is the only hope for the greatest measure of self-determination for a small nation on the border of Russia.
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  5533. You asked. Online you can look up the number of US border patrol agents over decades. There was a period of significant increase, but lately under both parties the level has been effectively on a plateau of around 21,000. We've had decades to address the southern border. The politics of the situation is that no American government has been willing to get serious about punishing American citizen employers for hiring cheap illegal immigrant labor. This select and politically powerful group are the people that have created the "draw" that brings migrants to the US. But they are happy to blame Biden for that, lest attention be paid to them. The long history of migration to the US has contributed to the US having the world's largest economy. It's not all bad, and the demand for cheap, very controllable labor is unlikely to go away. Ukraine's situation is far more recent and far more violent than America's perennial issues on the southern border. The stakes involve the trend of power of the three major imperial players: Russia, China, and the United States with its various treaty partners, the "West". No less than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has indicated the US cannot sustain its current level of government deficit spending. We face an economic death spiral in the years ahead. Like it or not, a significant part of the American economy is based on international trade. The Chinese and Russian empires are interested in reducing America's share of the international market. The effects of their success in their own imperial expansion would accelerate America's economic decline. The present American way of life is not detached from the well-being of any American trade partner. The Russians and Chinese have to be very pleased at reinforcing the suggestion that Americans would be better off if they withdrew from the rest of the world. The American illusion is that we could sustain our way of life by staying out Russia's and China's way. Doesn't it make sense for both Russia and China to portray themselves as deserving a little more and the US should mind its own business? Looks like they've got millions of Americans nodding their heads in agreement. Our open society makes it easy for them to influence us. It is more difficult for us to influence their closed societies.
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  5566. Jake, as you know, the Congress and the SCOTUS is supposed to be the check and balance on this Trump stuff, but when they don't do their job, the Constitution sets up the States to be the backup plan. The very large States (think California in "informal" alliance with Oregon and Washington, maybe Nevada) have the clout to do things like hire up FBI agents that need a new job. Indeed, if the best federal civil servants are being let go, then large States have an opportunity to hire this good talent. States can step up in many areas of life and provide good governance and attract like-minded people. If Trump keeps breaking rules, maybe States can ignore rules that keep them from exercising "federal" powers, acting in ways that strengthen their State economies while Trump-compliant States lose economically. The development of such a movement should prompt the new Secretary of the Treasury to have a quiet chat with the President about the full faith and credit of the United States starting to look less secure to lending markets that fund the national debt and annual budget deficits. States ultimately are the mechanism for groups of people to distance themselves or even spin off from a decadent federal government. Maybe it's just a genetic, evolutionary tendency in human beings to want an autocratic monarch. Perhaps people who see the advantages of greater freedom need to gather together in a smaller space to preserve the Constitution. America would no longer be a superpower, but the US Constitution would still be effective for the millions of people willing to defend it. Perhaps this is the one part of Putin and Xi's plan that is on schedule. This can sound like hyperbole, just like Trump, but I am saying the mere movement toward greater State autonomy (think Texas) should alert forward looking, exposed financial markets with considerable political power. Your interest in financial markets can really come to bear here. As a veteran, I like to think we have an awesome military, but I suspect it has not improved its ability to govern another nation since Iraq or Afghanistan. I hardly think a loyalist Trump administration would have any more success.
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  5578.  @captain34ca  The imperial impulse is human and not confined to any particular nation. Does not an objective study of human history reveal this? The subject is Russia and its neighbors. I must agree with Toby. Russia cannot be surprised that its neighbors are increasingly defensive. Or is it a defect of Russian leadership thinking, that it thinks itself infallible, and that if anything goes wrong, someone else, certainly not itself, but "America the other" is to blame? That would be a characteristic of what Christopher Hitchens called "a psychopathic dictatorship", that is, what he called the present Russian regime. The psychopathic mind has difficulty processing loss, e.g., Donald Trump. Someone no less than Mikhail Gorbachev said of Putin, "He is always right." And the weakness of the regime seems its sense of having some obligation to publicly agree with that. It was a rather clever thing for Gorbachev to say, and he did not seem to suffer any serious consequences for saying it. And so what I am trying to get across here is that if the Russian regime continues on its present path, its belief in its infallibility and that all its misfortune is someone else's fault, then it will eventually fail and lose, as the Soviet Union did. It will lose because, as a victory centered psychopathic dictatorship, it crushes, indeed kills or chases away, the very people it needs to succeed, by doing what Toby has described. It will fail and lose because it will not, psychologically cannot, self-correct as it needs to. It was not enough to let some facade of Russian Orthodoxy, and other suppressed institutions like journalism, to resurface to renew the Russian culture, those institutions need to be left as truly free as possible for the West to see and economically re-engage with a new and better Russia.
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