Comments by "Doncarlo" (@doujinflip) on "The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. Right, the timelines might be off, but the trendlines are solid.
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  2. Or rather past notions of the economy, getting constantly overturned like a dynamic market should. Remember walking forward actually involves falling down into the next step.
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  3. Western economies aren't as vulnerable because of better fundamentals -- immigration-boosted demographics, more useful education, more natural startup scene, more open media and public discussion, more solid grasp of the total production chain (R&D, Sales & Services) instead of just the Manufacturing middle-income trap. If anything the concerns are overblown because of deliberate dramatization for attention grabs.
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  4. ​Only in manufacturing, which according to the Smiling Curve is the least value-added and most replaceable middle step compared to R&D and Sales & Services at the ends. Ends that China fails to get a grip on because the mindset and policies those require would be "destabilizing".
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  5. Also very long delayed and still full of questionable build quality along its whole length, even when only connecting to the next major city over.
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  6. And no challenges because of Party-monopolized state, within which is mutually-assured destruction of its membership from all the corruption required to make the numbers needed for promotions and increased authority.
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  7. There's already a lot of criticism among Chinese themselves about all the BRI-related loans to other countries when they could be investing at home. There's a reason Chinese-language media doesn't talk about how much money is being spent on foreign aid.
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  8. Even within 5th Ring it wasn't hard to find dark if not long incomplete high rises. My own place there included warning signs to "Watch for falling objects", and it wasn't depicting flowerpots or other household items either.
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  9. The way the Chinese state controls its money, there's not really a difference there.
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  10. Mainlander Chinese are a low-trust society just with disposable funds. Unfortunately money doesn't buy conscientiousness.
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  11. Just left China earlier this year. Not missing the diarrhea-colored tap water even within the 4th Ring of Běijīng.
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  12. The way they're built though, they'd be lucky to still be a salable property in 70 years.
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  13. Except those "houses" almost always have an owner already, which without bankruptcy protection means it's guaranteed they'll oversell its true worth just to get a leg up on their own insurmountable debt.
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