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Doncarlo
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "Doncarlo" (@doujinflip) on "New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan" video.
@infectioushobo It's "garbage" because there's clearly the resources to provide a better standard of living for the average American, but not the political will especially as corporate and industry support is seen as more valuable than respecting the will of every US citizen (particularly economically vulnerable and often disenfranchised voters like younger adults, homeless, working class, and expats). That's how America has an expensive scatterbrained utility like the healthcare system, and privatized utility monopolies like Comcast. All while so much of our taxes get spent on arcane "breaks" accessible only to those wealthy enough to staff a dedicated legal and accounting department.
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I've seen estimates that when accounting for China's inflated GDP and underreported debt loads, its Debt-to-GDP ratio is more like 3 and possibly upwards of 5. They've only gotten this far because it's propped up by international funding, and a lack of political challenge over how much money it's printed and forced its SOEs start yet another project with.
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Job competition will do that, especially as remote work opened up a lot of other paycheck possibilities and Mexico's growing industries mean they're no longer as desperate to secretly come north. Plus there's still way to many Americans needing support for skills retraining and chronic health issues which further reduces the effective labor pool, making it an employees' market.
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Both are true. Youth unemployment is alarming because of the collapse of real estate and education markets which had employed a lot of graduates, as well as the exodus of companies to cheaper/closer/less hostile countries. At the same time, the youth are the ones driving innovation and establishing demands for new markets, which an increasingly aged society isn't so quick to take up if they do so at all. So China ends up clutching to a limited consumption economy revolving around increasingly worthless condos and other vapid symbols of wealth, as opposed to things they can truly monopolize like popular arts and cultural approachability to foreign audiences.
2
China has always been an autocracy, which means developments happen quickly. Whether good or bad.
1
Even if you study Mandarin, it's not guaranteed you'll be able to communicate with other Chinese as their tongue is Cantonese or Hokkien instead. Then you find out they read in Traditional Script, which further slows down your rapport building writing to them in Mainland Simplified. Ironically I've found Korean and Japanese to be at least as good of a lingua franca because of how many of their people go abroad, and how many foreigners study it out of personal desire (not just for heritage or employment reasons).
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