Comments by "Doncarlo" (@doujinflip) on "China could invade Taiwan by 2027" video.

It's ironic that the Communist China's idea of its territory involves every land that it once held through imperial conquest. It's an open secret that China also wants Russia's southeastern corner too (i.e. Vladivostok), and there's serious discussion of what other lands that China could target for seizure or at least political subjugation much like how things were during their imperial glory days.
4
As Vietnam and Afghanistan have shown, for a land war places to hide is more important than technical superiority. Taiwan has the terrain, and much of its population have military skills.
2
@TMsonjakopp7006 The US proved there was a threat of global nuclear war because of Soviet nukes getting staged in Cuba. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would only serve to disrupt international trade, which most of the world would not appreciate -- it's more likely to backfire by pushing India and Southeast Asia to reconsider the free flow of ships to China through their own waters.
2
Those cracks were always there. NZ relies the most on China for its economy, not having as much of an Americas or Europe as its alternative. Joining the statement wouldn't provide much more effect on China as they already think "they're all against us", but the "reciprocal" diplomatic and economic fallout would definitely make things harder for NZ going forward.
1
This may be the more likely casus belli since Mainland China risks increasing unrest as it settles into the relative decadence of the middle income trap -- being probably too old, polluted, and corrupt to escape -- and the CPC's unchallengeable rule relies on an environment of easy profits. The Party also gets easily spooked by any visible scenes of internal protests.
1
The Republic of China did. Those were the islands that the PLA failed to take by the end of the Great Retreat.
1
A ground war can't be avoided, and that's where the Taiwanese people have an opportunity to go toe to toe with any PLA occupiers; notice how much heartache insurgents gave the US forces despite near zero naval assets or air defense. Rumor is there's discussion that the next round of American defense sales to Taiwan won't be high-tech F-35s and such, but instead much simpler equipment and training on how to perform effective insurgencies which the US military has plenty of experience with. One or two generations of Mainland families finding their only sons dead or disappeared could create a lot of unrest and questioned loyalties among the people of China.
1
Luckily Taiwan has direct access to the open sea which allows for unfettered supplies and trade, which sadly the Kurds don't.
1
That's how poorly the early PLA fared with amphibious assualts, Hainan being the one major exception as it was too far to effectively command and supply from Taiwan. Nowadays these tiny islands stay with the ROC because seizing them could lead to Taiwan cutting their losses and suddenly declaring independence, and the PLA wouldn't be nearly prepared enough for an immediate cross-Strait offensive.
1
There's a lot of simmering divisions within the US, but the most violent movements are all fractured into individuals and small groups which even if they do find each other wouldn't be able to agree on their tactics and objectives before being hunted down by law enforcement or popular revelations. Jan 6 illustrated what these disorganized sentiments could achieve, which was basically nothing but embarrassment and reducing the sympathies of the police who won't be as favorably selective in enforcing the law anymore.
1
Seizing those islands would lead to Taiwan declaring independence, since they won't be able to take it back nor is peace proven to be an option with the PRC. This would catch the PLA flatfooted, not nearly prepared enough for an immediate offensive across the Strait, while Taiwan has time to gain international recognition and rally allies for the inevitable battles ahead.
1