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Doncarlo
China Update
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Comments by "Doncarlo" (@doujinflip) on "China Update" channel.
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I'm not a certified building inspector, but even in my <10 year old high-end flat in Běijīng I could tell there were concerning flaws with the structure. Those "Watch for falling objects" signs posted outside weren't depicting flowerpots falling from tenant's balconies. And that's ignoring the unexplained IT wiring and the rusty water that came out of the taps.
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@tonysu8860 The USCG gets deployed primarily for missions like cooperative training exercises and polar exploration support, not to enforce US laws hundreds or thousands of miles from America's shores.
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@beckyconstantinides2546 Wangfujing is a major pedestrian plaza and shopping area in central Beijing, flanked by fancy malls on both sides for like two blocks, and walking distance to the Forbidden City.
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Taiwan is the “China” even many Chinese wish China became 🇹🇼🐉
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If it's like a black hole, they'll also see the outside increasingly pass them by as they approach their demise.
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15 min since release, and about 1 in 3 of your comments are spam bots. Congrats Tony, your channel has become "marketable" 😅
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The intercept isn't the problem, it's the Chinese doing so through deliberately unsafe maneuvers.
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I lived in an apartment within the Beijing 3rd Ring where a sign on the outside warned of falling objects, and they weren’t depicting flowerpots falling from balconies either.
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They died inside, seeing how swiftly Western visa applications became the hottest purchase this year.
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When I was in Indonesia before COVID, my local friends described reports of buzz-cut military-aged male Mainlander Chinese “tourists” swarming all over the Riau island group (the Indonesian land closest to the 9-Dash Line).
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Japan actually produces cars that are durable and maintainable, unlike the garage hog of US makes and component inaccessibility of European ones. Chinese ones are built to be practically disposable and hold almost no resale value, doesn't matter how many thousands of dollars they cost off the lot.
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YouTube sadly rewards clickbaity taglines, which is crucial for a one-man show like Tony. But his analysis is solid as he lives in China and often reads straight from Chinese language sources.
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China also lacks the variety and depth of data needed for an AI to learn successfully compared to the open and expressive West, as the information accessible is severely constrained for "state (i.e. Party) security" reasons.
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It's revealing what the PLA would plan to do with an equivalent system just by what they fear about the supposed capabilities of Starlink.
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That’s an issue specific to YouTube and its algorithm on what videos to filter and recommend, not the channels who upload to it.
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Kissinger was no doubt a powerful statesman, but blindingly Eurocentric in his approach to shaping US interests. Hopefully the present and future of American diplomacy results in a more holistic foreign policy.
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It might not curtail the manning and equipment procurements, but it could affect the quality and combat effectiveness. Much like how North Korea who spends all their spare funds on its military are supplying Russia artillery shells with an alarming dud rate. So yeah it would help all those resisting the CPC's belligerence by compelling a buildup of deterrence to match, while possibly blunting the actual threat.
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Unfortunately for the Party designing that ladder involves disruptive risk-tolerant imagination that thinks beyond the "stability" of low-reaching scaffolding.
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They'll try, but stealing personal experience and underlying mentalities only gets so far. What needs to change is the institutional environment within China to develop these domestically, which terrifies the Party.
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Right, the "multipolarity" that Russia and the PRC advocate would just lead to more trade-dissuading regional armed conflicts. The "warmongering" American presence ironically helps keep the peace by not allowing unrelated local tensions from escalating into bigger wars that global movements detour well away from -- think how much civil aviation got disrupted by no longer flying directly over Russia and expand that to critical sea lanes.
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Beijing claims to be "open for business", but not the two-way transactions that peaceable commerce requires.
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Probably because hopeful engagement turned out to be little more than appeasement for the insatiable.
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Strong overcapacity to strong debt? Or strong worker inefficiency to strong underemployment?
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Even the libertarian paradise of Subsaharan Africa is arguably more socialist, because at least the extended families take care of each other. In China you're at the whims of the state, and the state views you as a replaceable cog in their interests.
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Much of the Arab World would likely collapse from Western disengagement; Even today they rely on Westerners to staff and run their rigs. Their prime desire is just weapons and security, but even then they need to import Westerners, Pakistanis, Africans, etc just to man and operate what they bought but decline to put in the hard work to get proficient with.
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Something about spreading the opportunity among those who can't afford such tutoring. But instead it seems the tutors are simply driven underground and have degraded in quality.
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Zeihan is annoyingly clickbaity, but the trends he describes have kept basically accurate even if the timeframes are off. And having lived in and personally experienced Mainland China, I'd say that the pessimistic news from there tends to be closer to the ground truth.
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We could just reciprocate China's de minimis limit, which is like $7 (the US is a very generous $800). That pushback alone makes even their cheapest purchases not worth the packaging and postage.
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I’d still be curious how Chinese cars stand up to IIHS crash tests. These are very stringent considering the high speeds Americans regularly crash at, with insurance companies having to pay for.
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@DK-ev9dg Technically there is a substantial level of sovereignty for US states, which the federal government steps in only in interstate matters. Though technological advancements since its agrarian origins have meant that there's few things that don't cross state lines anymore.
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As our disengagement preceding WW1, WW2, and 9/11 showed, we can’t exactly start isolating ourselves from the world and rely on being the Beacon on the Hill as our main defense ✈️🗽 There’s a reason we have hundreds of military bases worldwide… and why nearly all the host nations are more concerned what happens to them should we leave, either the costs to their defense or their domestic politics without the “evil Americans” to conveniently redirect public frustrations toward.
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Statistics and projections involving modern China in general are often overly optimistic.
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Hasn't improved over time either. Even the Soviets joked about Beijing declaring yet another "final warning".
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Feel being the key word
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Based on what buyers both in China and worldwide are finding out, there is no substantial after-sales support. Parts get backordered for months, and mechanics even in the dealership are ill equipped to try anything more intensive than a brake flush and tire change. Seems like the plan is to just have you buy a new model, in line with modern China's strategy of making it cheap and disposable.
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It's almost shocking to see how much more cosmopolitan other nations are compared to the PRC, having finally gone on an excursion from the Mainland recently.
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"High quality jobs" centered around innovation thrives on creative destruction, but this is anathema to the Mainland China way across all its major dynasties where they enforce the stable stagnation of "harmony". Hence why China lacks in world-changing original inventions that weren't independently developed elsewhere after Europe managed to build its own printing presses back in the 1400s.
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Hint: they’re usually labeled as “emerging markets”
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Ironically this is among the most sober analysis you can get about China, especially since Tony lives there. Anything less "clickbaity" is likely a state-sponsored outlet trying to convince you that the socially-open market-friendly China we knew of before has returned.
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Also socially conservative, demanding adherence to traditional social roles and unquestioned authority. The CPC and the Republican Party have a lot more in common besides depicting themselves with the color red 🚩
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They're going to have to hold their breath a lot longer though. There's basically nothing compelling the Party to return travel conditions back to normal now that they have instituted the "health kit" internal passports they need to track dissidents and stamp out unrest with all the other problems of "New China" flaring up: household debts, government debts, overwork, falling global interest and investment, HK, Tibet, etc.
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Taiwan would still be the bleeding edge of chip fabs. It's the developed older processes that are being exported for diversification and redundancy of TSMC experience. Taiwan is still going to be important as the ongoing common root for all those forks in knowledge.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the balloon incident was meant to sabotage the first trip attempt, giving the Party another reason to blame America for something Beijing wanted anyway.
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By itself it didn’t. What potential it proved possible left America absolutely shook.
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In speed, not in longevity. The PRC is entering a phase of permanent stagnation similar to what the USSR faced in the 1970s, a state that lasted a few decades more but not very well.
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There's a glaring difference in how well Taiwan handled their quarantine and treatment response compared to how botched up everything was on the Mainland. There's a reason the failed Dynamic Zero-COVID lasted for nearly three years.
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Also overestimation about the centrality of the Middle Kingdom in the minds and actions of people worldwide.
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The channel "Lei's Real Talk" focuses more on the CPC itself, using its history and current actions to provide insight into the infighting within the Party and how this is influencing the gross incoherence in Chinese government policies.
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Efficiency and resilience are competing interests. There’s a point where being penny wise becomes pound foolish when a sudden shock comes along. We saw this when COVID disrupted the regular flow of goods that allowed Just In Time manufacturing. Europe experiences this now being so built around cheap piped gas from Russia. America is wise to divest and diversify its economy away from those who try to institute a “multipolar” world through promises of military conquest.
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Only a matter of time until the people realize the connection between all these adverse "Acts of God" with the Mandate of Heaven.
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