Comments by "DasBubba" (@dasbubba841) on "Good Times Bad Times"
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@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
1) Casualties are hard to discern, because both sides are tight lipped about figures. Civilian casualties are probably equal to or more than military casualties for Ukraine, though. The Russians themselves have suffered heavily, based on visual equipment losses (the VDV especially). Though, a lot of those were front loaded at the start of the war, and due to heavy entrenchment of both sides, I'd say casualty figures aren't that high (for both sides) as of late. Also to note is that Ukrainian morale hasn't suffered due to casualties.
2) Inflation is rather uncomfortable in the West, though that has flattened out recently. It also hasn't led to any decrease in support from Ukraine's largest backers, namely the US, UK, and Poland where public support for Ukraine has consistently remained high.
3) The EU has made serious efforts to soften the blow the onset of winter will have. This has included stockpiling energy, diversifying suppliers, and reducing consumption. Also, said blow won't be felt equally in the EU. Ukraine's most consistent and impactful backers, notable Poland, are not dependent on Russia. The US, the largest backer (and supplier of the very effective HIMARS) is not dependent on Russia at all, and any crisis the EU may face will not impact them at all.
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@schuschnix5261 Sanctions do work. They don't destroy a country, but they make it far more difficult to carry out objectives. North Korean and Iran have militaries that are basically stuck a Cold-War technology level. Cuba's economy is tiny, and dependent on tourism (and cheap oil from Venezuela).
Sanctions make it harder for Russia to assemble sophisticated weaponry. Yes, they can smuggle chips in from third-party sources, but that is expensive and slow.
Europe is hurting, but it's temporary. Oil and natural gas aren't sourced from only Russia. Energy sources are being sourced from other suppliers like Qatar, the US, and Saudi Arabia. The longer the war goes on, the weaker the dependence becomes, especially as LNG infrastructure is constructed. What happens when Russian suppliers are replaced? The EU was Russia's largest market BY FAR.
And if Russia hasn't mobilized by now, they never will because the political cost of doing so outweighs the costs of potentially losing the war.
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Putin is a risk taker, but he is not stupid. The fact that he has maintained power for longer than I've been alive (I'm in college) illustrates this. He made a very poor gamble, but to give up and thrown in the towel in unthinkable.
This is because I'd say it is not Putin that has the fragile ego, but the entire Russian citizenry that does. Russia is an immensely proud nation that has suffered immensely. The economic situation is terrible (even before sanctions), having probably one of the greatest wealth gaps in the world, suffocating corruption, an ageing population, terrible living standards for the average Russian, and HIV epidemic caused by a dysfunctional healthcare network, crumbling Soviet-legacy infrastructure, and the list goes on and on.
Pride is all Russians have left. Unlike the Germans, whose defeat in WWII forced them to come to terms with authoritarianism, and who had an economic miracle to promote optimism for the future, Russians never had that. Only stagnation and endless recollection of the "glory days".
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@Trubripes In that war, most of the fighting was done, at the end, by the US and China. South Korean and North Korea had, by then, largely lost their armies (North Korea's army had been destroyed in 1950).
In this war, it is only Ukraine and Russia doing actual fighting. NATO is not expending lives, just weapons. The US has no incentive to have Ukraine lose, Ukraine, for obvious reasons, wants to fight until victory.
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@sinoroman People say that, and have been saying that for over two months, but nothing has materialized. If Russia was actually going to win, they'd have won already.
Every day that passes, every day that Russia can't get Ukraine to the negotiating table and get a peace treaty, is a day where Ukraine gets stronger and Russia gets weaker.
People have this mythical view of Russia, that it is a great military power, a superpower who defeated the Nazis. Truth is, Russia is a decrepit, rotten, rusting remnant of a superstate that fell apart 30 years ago. Industries are plundered for their wealth by oligarchs, who then stash their money in Swiss banks. There is an epidemic of HIV/AIDS, infrastructure is crumbling, people are leaving for the West...
Russia will lose, and Russia may not survive it. Perhaps that's a good thing, and maybe its people will take a hard look about the state of affairs that they put themselves in.
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@Unwise- In many dictatorships, to lose power is to lose your life. In your rise to power, and in your efforts to maintain power, you make some serious enemies. If you were to, say, retire, you'd be giving up that power which makes you safe. Then, someone else may take that power and see you as a liability. For personal reasons, or in case you might decide retirement sucks and you want your power back.
Wars for dictatorships are a gamble. They can either unite the country and boost your legitimacy (if you win), or you look incompetent and lose any legitimacy you have. Mao used the Chinese Civil War and the stalemated Korean War to gain immense legitimacy and prestige. Said Barre of Somalia, in contrast, after losing the war with Ethiopia lost any scrap of legitimacy he had left and basically lost control over his country.
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