Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "BBC News"
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@AA-vi1cc At the start of the data sequence for the whole GBR cover was 25% in 1986. It reached a low point in 2011 of 12%. In 2022, the LTMP found record high coral cover on the GBR of 34% coral cover on the seabed of the coral reefs monitored.
You cherry pick data from the Southern reef only because it helps your narrative (but it doesn't really).
The Northern region reached a low point in 2016. However, it has since completely recovered, with coral cover now at double the 2016 level, and recording record cover.
The Central region has experienced a greater degree of fluctuation, but is also now at record high coral cover.
The Southern region (your favourite) is now at record equalling coral cover, three times higher than at its low point in 2011.
Every region is at record-equalling high coral cover, once uncertainty estimates are taken into account.
If you are going to cherry pick. I'm going to cherry pick inside your bunch of cherries. Take Capricorn Bunkers. This is one of the sections within the Southern Region (one of eleven). In 2022, Capricorn Bunkers had record high coral cover of 59%, around four times the lowest value, seen in 2011, of 16%. This doesn't do it justice though as the data for the reef shows a great degree of variability. This is natural. The reef always recovers strongly. And it's got nothing to do with CO2.
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@boss_albaner The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change:
Increased Flooding: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Meteorological Drought: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Hydrological Drought: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Tropical Cyclones: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Winter Storms: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Thunderstorms: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Hail: not detected, no attribution.
increased lightning: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Extreme Winds: not detected, no attribution.
There is no climate crisis.
The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that certain severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change:
Pages 1761 - 1765, Table 11.A.2 Synthesis table summarising assessments
Heavy Precipitation: 24 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (12 medium confidence), 43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution.
Agricultural Drought: 31 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend
(14 medium confidence. No high confidence assessment). 42 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (3 medium, no high confidence).
Ecological Drought as above.
Hydrological Drought: 38 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend.
43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (2 medium confidence, no high confidence).
So the IPCC are saying we didn't cause droughts and we didn't make it rain. How surprising!
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis.
The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Average precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Tropical Cyclones.
How about some quotes from the UN's IPCC AR6?
"There is low confidence in the emergence of heavy precipitation and pluvial and river flood frequency in observations, despite trends that have been found in a few regions."
"There is low confidence in the emergence of drought frequency in observations, for any type of drought, in all regions."
"Observed mean surface wind speed trends are present in many areas, but the emergence of these trends from the interannual natural variability and their attribution to human-induced climate change remains of low confidence due to various factors such as changes in the type and exposure of recording instruments, and their relation to climate change is not established. . . The same limitation also holds for wind extremes (severe storms, tropical cyclones, sand and dust storms)."
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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@boss_albaner Since 1900 the global temperature has increased by 1.3°C. In that time humanity has flourished. Life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 to 73 years. Literacy has quadrupled from 21% to 86%. Humans are seven times more productive ($2,241 to $15,212 GDP per capita, per annum). People are better fed, having ⅓ more calories every day (2,192kcal to 2,928kcal). Global extreme poverty rates have tumbled from 70% to less than 10% (<$1 a day). And death from weather events have collapsed by a factor 50 from 241 million down to 5 million even while the global population has increased by a factor of 5.
There is no climate crisis. There is no evidence of a climate crisis.
Even if there is radical climate change (and that is a very, very big 'if') with the manifestation of numerous tipping points (including permafrost thaw, ocean hydrates dissociation, Arctic sea ice loss, rainforest dieback, polar ice sheet loss, AMOC slowdown, and Indian monsoon variability) the disruption to economic growth and well-being will be minimal. The world's economy will continue to grow making everyone much richer. By 2050 world mean consumption per capita should be $29,100 with tipping points or $29,300 without tipping points. Barely noticeable. Apart from it being approximately double what it is now. By 2100 world mean consumption per capita should be $71,000 with or without tipping points (Dietz et al, 2021).
This is the most fortunate time to be alive in the whole of history.
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@boss_albaner As regards disease, the Lancet's Countdown on Health and Climate Change (2019) shows Climate-related deaths are a small proportion of all-cause fatalities (1990–2017). That is based on data per IHME (2019), and between 1990 and 2017, the cumulative age-standardized death rate (ASDRs) from climate-sensitive diseases and events (CSDEs) dropped from 8.1% of the all-cause ASDR to 5.5%, while the age-standardized burden of disease, measured by disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) declined from 12.0% to 8.0% of all-cause age-standardized DALYs. Thus, the burdens of death and disease from CSDEs are small, and getting smaller.
However, the declines in death and disease rates from CSDEs since 1990 are only a small proportion of longer-term declines across the globe. In the USA, one of the few places with good long-term data, death rates from dysentery, typhoid, paratyphoid, other gastrointestinal diseases, and malaria – all water-related diseases and therefore, almost by definition, climate-sensitive declined 99–100% between 1900 and 1970.
We are solving our problems with CSDEs faster than we are solving our other health problems.
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Using children for propaganda purposes sounds like the 1930s.
The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Average precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Tropical Cyclones.
How about some quotes from the UN's IPCC AR6?
"There is low confidence in the emergence of heavy precipitation and pluvial and river flood frequency in observations, despite trends that have been found in a few regions."
"There is low confidence in the emergence of drought frequency in observations, for any type of drought, in all regions."
"Observed mean surface wind speed trends are present in many areas, but the emergence of these trends from the interannual natural variability and their attribution to human-induced climate change remains of low confidence due to various factors such as changes in the type and exposure of recording instruments, and their relation to climate change is not established. . . The same limitation also holds for wind extremes (severe storms, tropical cyclones, sand and dust storms)."
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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@Franck R The glaciers in Europe and elsewhere have receded and disappeared (and then advanced again) in the recent past. Often as these glaciers recede the remains of forests are discovered. It was probably the case that there were no glaciers in the Alps during the Holocene Climatic Optimum a few thousand years ago.It was warmer during the Medieval, Roman, and Minoan Warm Periods. It was certainly warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. If you want a citation, try Quaternary Research Volume 53, Issue 3, May 2000, Pages 302-311. This makes the point that it was upto 7°C warmer on the shores of the Arctic during the Holocene Climatic Optimum.
The northern coast of Greenland was, during parts of the Pleistocene, warmer by double figures than today. The summer and winter average minimum temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius and 17 degrees C, respectively, were more than 10 degrees C warmer than present day. I think it was a maximum of 19 °C warmer than today. Remarkable. Maybe it was those pesky Neanderthals driving around in their SUVs. This one's been all over the news but if you want a citation I think it was in the 7th December 2022 issue of Nature. The original research was done by some Danish chappy.
If you want some really rapid warming look at the CET (Central England Temperature) Record between 1690 and 1730. That won't be reliable enough for you though. Why not try the Dansgaard–Oeschger events.
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@Neutralino There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis.
Even the biased UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Mean precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Antarctic Sea Ice,
Tropical Cyclones.
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@Muddslinger0415 Another artless piece of propaganda from the BBC. As of Sunday 23rd July the Eastern US (except Florida) is in a cold anomaly. I.e. it is colder than average for July. Looking across the Northern Hemisphere the following are also large anomalous cold areas: Northern Europe, Western Russia, Mongolia, Manchuria, and Tibet. This is all weather, not catastrophic man-made climate change.
No temperature records have been broken in Europe. Rome was supposed to have broken its, but it wasn't as hot as in 1841. Greece is nowhere near its record of 48°C set way back in 1977. As the report admits it was hotter 50 years ago!
There is nothing unusual about the fire season in Europe. Weekly burn area is way below average. Cumulative burn area is average. Weekly Number of fires are below average. Cumulative number of fires are bang in the middle of the normal range. The same is true for Greece, and the fires at present are a tiny fraction of the maximum recorded (EFFIS). There's no trend for wildfires in Greece. Note that annual Global Wildfire Carbon Emissions have been declining dramatically since 2003, with 2022 being the lowest on record (Copernicus).
"Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023). So Antarctica isn't melting.
Then there's the breathless gibberish about Phoenix. Phoenix was incorporated in 1881, NOAA only has continuous data from around 1940. So recorded history for Phoenix in this instance is about 80 years (not that long climatically) and the record for 1930s (when heatwaves were much worse) is mostly incomplete. Also Phoenix's population has expanded exponentially in that time from a few tens of thousands to a few million. This has dramatically increased the Urban Heat Island effect resulting in temperatures 10°F (5°C) higher during the day (Scientific American, 2019). This alone explains the record high temperatures.
As I'm sure everyone is aware, Phoenix is in the Sonoran desert, which is characterised by long summers and extremely high temperatures. And that's exactly what's happening. There's nothing unusual or unexpected here.
Then tag the floods in: the U.N. IPCC admits having “low confidence” in even the “sign” of any changes—in other words, it is just as likely that climate change is making floods less frequent and less severe.
The news story is purposely catatrophising the weather to unnecessarily scare people into changing their way of life. There is no global climate crisis.
This is an appalling piece of journalism by the BBC.
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@Niko257x Oh dear, you poor thing. Just because you lack the ability to find the material I clearly referenced doesn't make it a lie.
You also appear to have trouble discerning exactly the points I'm trying to make. For example although there is evidence for a mild warming, I did not say that was "human caused". You are putting words in my mouth. That's naughty. I gave referenced evidence that this was a good thing e.g. reduced mortality from extreme temperatures.
The point I'm trying to make in this commentary is that the warming that is occurring is within the rate and range of what has occurred in the recent past. Again without reference to it being "human caused". Dramatic changes in climate are perfectly natural and normal on this planet and have never required any human input.
Your use of Wikipedia as a reference source is laughable: a schoolboy error. It is probably the kernel of your problem. You don't (or can't) go back to the original sources of data and evaluate them. You just take what you're given.
When it comes to "the warming" I can quote you upwards of 100 recent peer reviewed published scientific papers that show both qualitatively and quantitatively that the Medieval Warm Period was hotter than the Current Warm Period. Around 1700AD the Little Ice which again was a global event reached its nadir with temperatures possibly 2°C lower than present. Warming proceeded hesitantly from that point (so before the onset of the Industrial Revolution). With initial rapid warming then a cooling in the earlier 1800s, followed by rapid warming again in the early part of the 20th century where the average daily maxima records were set (1930s) and remain extant to this day. There followed a general cooling in the mid-century which lasted until the latter 1970s. Since that point there has been a hesitant warming of 0.13°C per decade (UAH v6). My précis of the Current Warm Period is a little simplistic for brevity as it has been neither consistent nor rapid both temporally and spatially. The warming isn't even "global", and I can reference data on that if you wish.
When it comes to extreme weather e.g. hurricanes, there's little or no change. The reason begin there's been some warming at the northerly latitudes but not in the tropics, so the temperature gradient across the northern hemisphere (that drives the wind) is reduced. "Basic thermodynamics". Don't take my word for it: From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes."
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