Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Hottest January on record puzzles climate scientists | BBC News" video.

  1. In the past few months, the World's Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has declined by 0.5°C so that it has returned to the temperature in December 2015 (Daily Sea Surface Temperature World 60°N-60°S 0-360°E NOAA OISST V2.1 dataset available on the ClimateReanalyzer website). The recent off trend temperature rise began before El Niño and was not predicted by climate scientists. The size of the temperature rise was not predicted by climate scientists. The rapid cooling of the ocean back down 2015 levels before the commencement of the next La Niña was not predicted. If the heat energy content of the World's oceans has increased by 400ZJ since 1960, and the atmosphere has absorbed about ¹/100 th that amount, there is no way an increase of 100ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere has forced that much heat into the ocean. The atmosphere does not hold enough energy, plus infrared radiation cannot penetrate the ocean surfaces beyond a few millimeters (small fractions of an inch) so increasing atmospheric CO2 cannot be an explanation of ocean warming It is not possible for the energy in the atmosphere to affect the ocean temperature changes seen recently or in the long term. In fact the atmosphere is not trapping more energy as the "greenhouse gas" CO2 increases, but the atmosphere is emitting increasing amounts of energy into space as longwave radiation. This is contrary to the idea of man-made global warming. Nearly all of the energy the ocean receives comes directly from sunlight. The current warming trend, and the heat of 2023-2024 is not explained by the rise in gases like CO2. There has been an increase in Absorbed Solar Radiation of around +1W/m²/decade with a record anomaly in 2023 around +1.83W/m² (CERES) or +1.31W/m² (ERA5). This is correlated with Total Solar Irradiance (how shiny the Sun is), which reached an all time record-breaking high in 2023 and 2024 as confirmed by satellite measurement (SORCE and TSIS). 90% of this solar radiation is absorbed directly by the ocean. 1% is absorbed by the atmosphere. Changing Greenhouse gas concentration has no effect on this increase in ASR. There is more energy from the Sun reaching the ocean, and this is warming it, and then the ocean is warming the atmosphere, then the atmosphere is radiating this energy away into space at an increasing rate. “The EEI [Earth's Energy Imbalance] trend and 2023 peak are not associated with decreasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations" "Instead, OLR has been increasing and largely offsetting even stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies" (Goessling et al., 2024).
    3