Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Climate change turbo-charging Somalia’s problems but there's still hope | BBC News" video.

  1. So drought was worse in Somalia 40 years ago...when the effects of human activity were less.
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  2. Horn of Africa, Somalia specifically, World Bank data shows annual rainfall is on an upward trend, and the climatic period 1931-1960 had far lower precipitation in all seasons than the period 1991-2020. Somalia's climate is wetter than in the past.
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  3. The famine in the Horn of Africa is endemic not because of climatic factors but because of bad governance and poverty. If you compare these regions to the Gulf States, the climate of the Gulf is similar, although even drier, but the latter have a much higher standard of living due their wealth of fossil fuels and better social organisation. What the Horn of Africa needs is a good dose of reliable energy from fossil fuels to raise their living standards.
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  4. @zakariyaabdullahi5669  A more civilised society would channel, conserve and utilise the increased rainfall. Besides which there is no evidence that Human activity is affecting drought or rainfall. There is no climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that certain severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change: Pages 1761 - 1765, Table 11.A.2 Synthesis table summarising assessments Heavy Precipitation: 24 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (12 medium confidence), 43 out of 45 low confidence in human attribution. Agricultural Drought: 31 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (14 medium confidence. No high confidence assessment). 42 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (3 medium, no high confidence). Ecological Drought as above. Hydrological Drought: 38 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend. 43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (2 medium confidence, no high confidence). So the IPCC are saying we didn't cause droughts and we didn't make it rain. How surprising! There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Antarctic Sea Ice, Tropical Cyclones. Quotes from the UN's IPCC AR6 WG1: Flooding - “the assessment of observed trends in the magnitude of runoff, streamflow, and flooding remains challenging, due to the spatial heterogeneity of the signal and to multiple drivers” "Confidence about peak flow trends over past decades on a global scale is low." "In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence" s11.5.4, p1569. So in absence of detected trends, there won’t be much ability to attribute to humans. You can't say floods are caused by, driven by, or intensified by climate change. The evidence doesn’t support that. Drought - "There is low confidence that human influence has affected trends in meteorological droughts in most regions" s11.6.4.5, p1579. So no real evidence we changed the weather to cause periods of dryness.
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