Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Sabine Hossenfelder"
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There has been a 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000 (CRED). Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) 1980-2021 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes." Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricaines is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. What the data from NOAA SPC shows about tornados: EF1-EF5 (1954-2022) no trend; EF3-EF5 (most destructive) (1954-2022) 50% decline. No EF5s in US since 2013 (a record absence).
The Global Land Precipitation Anomaly from AR5 will disappoint with deviations from the average increasing by 0.2% per decade, but if you look at the actual data, it's just very variable over the decades.
Drought appears to be decreasing globally (Watts et al, 2018) measured by SPI 1901-2017.
For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes (extreme temperature, drought, flood, storms, wildfires) declined 98%--from an average of 247 per year during the 1920s to 2.5 in per year during the 2010s.
Data on disaster deaths come from (EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels,Belgium. )
Globally 2000-2019 there was a large decrease in cold-related deaths and a moderate increase in heat-related deaths (Zhao, 2021, Lancet). However, coldwaves are over 9 times more likely to kill than heatwaves, so the overall result is very beneficial.
Deserts have shrunk considerably since the 1980's and the Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime. "The greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year"(NASA, 2019).
The Great Barrier Reef's coral cover has reached the greatest extent ever recorded.
On extinction the rate is very low: 900 known lost species for 2.1 million known species in 500 years (IUCN), so from observations there are an average of slightly less than 2 species lost every year. Out of a known species total of over 2 million. That gives an annual percentage loss of less than 0.0001%. That's background extinction. At that frequency it will take over 930,000 years to reach 80% extinction of species experienced at the K-T boundary that saw the extinction of the dinosaurs. Of course, extinction is a natural part of the evolution of life on this planet with the average lifespan of a species thought to be about 1 million years (cf 930,000). It is estimated that 99.9% of all plant and animal species that have existed have gone extinct.
Global temperatures maxed out in 2016 and have been lower ever since.
There is no climate crisis.
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4:21 This is a scare story about things you cannot see.
To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC."
Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation.
Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2.
MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021)
The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv.
"Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years.
There is no climate crisis.
The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations.
The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really?
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two.
The ocean has warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
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The Earth's changing climate has extremely low sensitivity to CO2. This is supported by a huge body of scientific evidence. What follows is a list of approximately 50 scientific research papers confirming this. There are at least another 100 that I know of.
Smirnov, 2018 (2X CO2 = 0.4°C) (2X AnthroCO2 = 0.02°C).
Chen et al., 2023 (2X CO2 [380 to 760 ppm] = 2.26 W/m² TOA forcing, 0.72°C).
Smirnov, 2016 (2X CO2 = 0.4°C) (316-402 ppm = 0.15°C).
Florides and Christodoulides, 2009 (2X CO2 = ~0.02°C).
Clark, 2013 +100 ppm CO2 = 1.5 W/m² [0.067°C].
Wong and Minnett, 2018 3XCO2 [1,071 ppm] = 0.5 W/m² [0.022°C].
Khilyuk and Chilingar, 2003 (2XCO2 = <0.01°C).
Miskolczi, 2007 (2XCO2 = 0.24°C).
Coe et al., 2021 (2XCO2 [400 to 800 ppm] = 0.5°C).
Siem and Olsen, 2023 (CO2 rising from 400 ppm to 1,000,000 ppm = -0.22°C cooling).
Schildknecht, 2020 (2XCO2 = 0.5°C).
Newell and Dopplick, 1979 (2X CO2 = ~0.25°C ).
Ramanathan, 1981 (2X CO2 = ~0.5°C).
Kauppinen and Malmi, 2019 (2X CO2 = ~0.24°C, human contribution 0.01°C/century).
Idso, 1998 (2X CO2 = ~0.4°C).
Krainov and Smirnov, 2019 (2X CO2 = 0.4°C, 2X anthroCO2 = 0.02°C).
Stallinga, 2020 (2X CO2 = <0.5 °C).
Kauppinen and Malmi, 2023 CO2 increase of 90 ppm (1980-2022) adds 0.03°C.
Gates et al., 1981 (2X CO2 = 0.3°C).
Gray, 2009 (2X CO2 = ~0.4°C).
Idso, 1988 (2x CO2 = 0.4°C).
Harde, 2014 (2X CO2 = 0.6°C).
Ollila, 2012 (2X CO2 = 0.5 °C).
Feis and Schwarzkopf, 1981 (2X CO2 = 0.00°C).
Lightfoot and Mamer, 2014 (2XCO2 = 0.33°C).
Zdunkowski et al., 1975 (2X CO2 = <0.5°C).
Cederlöf, 2014 (2X CO2 = 0.35°C).
Idso, 1980 (2X CO2 = ≤ 0.26°C ).
Harde, 2017 (2XCO2 = 0.7°C ).
Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023 2XCO2 = 0.015°C.
Schuurmans, 1983 (2XCO2 = ~0.3°C ).
Kissin, 2015 (2XCO2 = ~0.6°C).
Ollila (2019) (2XCO2 = ~0.6°C).
Holmes, 2018 (2XCO2 = -0.03°C).
Harde and Schnell, 2022 (2XCO2 = 0.7°C).
Weare and Snell, 1974 (2X CO2 = 0.7°C, 6XCO2 = 1.7°C).
Rasool and Schneider, 1971 2XCO2 = 0.8°C, 8xCO2 = <2°C.
Smirnov, 2022 (2XCO2 = 0.6°C).
Lindzen and Choi, 2011 (2X CO2 = 0.7°C).
Kimoto, 2015 (2X CO2= ~0.16°C).
Ollila, 2014 (2X CO2 = ~ 0.6°C).
Harde, 2016 (2X CO2 = 0.7°C).
Evans, 2016 (2X CO2 = <0.5°C).
Gervais, 2016 (2X CO2 = <0.6°C).
Soon, Connolly, and Connolly, 2015 (2X [400 ppm] CO2 = 0.44°C).
Reinhart, 2017 (2X [400 ppm] CO2 = 0.24°C).
Balling Jr, 1994 (2XCO2 = <1.0°C).
Smirnov, 2020 (2XCO2 = <0.6°C).
Kauppinen and Malmi, 2019 (2X CO2 ≈ 0.24°C).
Abbot and Marohasy, 2017 (2XCO2= <0.6°C).
Gray, 2018 (2XCO2 = 0.5°C).
There is no climate crisis. There is no evidence of a climate crisis, and CO2 is certainly not the control knob for the climate.
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I'm disappointed. This is a scare story about things you cannot see.
To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC."
Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation.
Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2.
MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021)
The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv.
"Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years.
There is no climate crisis.
The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations.
The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? These models can't even replicate one of the key physical processes, Convection, in ocean currents "because convection is a small-scale process, it is not captured well in most current models (Jackson et al (2023)" (Rahmstorf, 2024). So they can't model Convection. So they can't model ocean currents.
From a 2024 paper by Terhaar et al published in Nature Communications "Based on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heatflux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products, the decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5°N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017". So not even close to a tipping point or collapse.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two.
Also the 'Cold Blob' has disappeared from North Atlantic surface temperatures, when annual anomalies for 2013-2023 are compared to the average for the period 1979-2010 (ECMWF ERA5). The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) shows a Sea Surface Temperature departure of over +2°C exactly where the Cold Blob used to be. It may have been there but it's gone. Looking more carefully using NOAA ERSST V5 data for North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (50N-65N, 50W-10W) shows in 1942 a +1°C anomaly declining to -0.7°C in 1992 then rising to almost +1°C in 2010, declining again to -0.6°C in 2010, and of course rising again to +0.75°C in 2023. There are also oscillations in the data back to the 1850s, but there is no trend overall up or down, and no correlation to CO2. The same is true for the heat content in the North Atlantic down to 1000m (Met Office data). No correlation to CO2, just a natural variability. That's the data. The Cold Blob is an artefact.
The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
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@old-pete Does Science explain the lack of evidence or the fact there is no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Mean precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Antarctic Sea Ice,
Tropical Cyclones?
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@old-pete The table I refer to in the report confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that those factors I listed have changed. How about some quotes from the UN's IPCC AR6 WG1 to help you out:
Flooding -
“the assessment of observed trends in the magnitude of runoff, streamflow, and flooding remains challenging, due to the spatial heterogeneity of the signal and to multiple drivers”
"Confidence about peak flow trends over past decades on a global scale is low."
"In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence" s11.5.4, p1569.
So in absence of detected trends, there won’t be much ability to attribute to humans. You can't say floods are caused by, driven by, or intensified by climate change. The evidence doesn’t support that.
Drought -
"There is low confidence that human influence has affected trends in meteorological droughts in most regions" s11.6.4.5, p1579.
So no real evidence we changed the weather to cause periods of dryness.
Tropical Cyclones (TC) -
"Identifying past trends in TC remains a challenge...There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multidecadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency - or intensity based metrics" s11.7.1.2, p1585.
So we can't spot a trend and therefore we can't really attribute that unknown trend to us humans.
Storminess - outside the tropics (ETCs) -
"There is overall low confidence is recent changes in the total number of ETCs over both hemispheres"
"Overall there is low confidence in past-century trends in the number and intensity of the strongest ETCs" s11.7.2.1, p1592
So we don't know what's happening with winter storms, so we can't say it's us that changed them.
Tornadoes, hail, lightning, thunderstorms, extreme winds -
"It is not straightforward to make a synthesizing view of trends in severe connective storms [thunderstorms] in different regions. In particular, observational trends in tornadoes, hail and lightning associated with severe connective storms are not robustly detected" s11.7.3.2, p1595.
"the observed intensity of extreme winds is becoming less severe in lower to mid latitudes" s11.7.4, p1598.
That's between 60°N and 60°S, so pretty much where everyone lives.
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If the heat energy content of the World's oceans has increased by 400ZJ since 1960, and the atmosphere has absorbed about ¹/100 th that amount, there is no way an increase of 100ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere has forced that much heat into the ocean. The atmosphere does not hold enough energy. It is not possible for the energy in the atmosphere to affect the ocean temperature changes seen recently or in the long term. In fact the atmosphere is not trapping more energy as the "greenhouse gas" CO2 increases, but the atmosphere is emitting increasing amounts of energy into space as longwave radiation. This is contrary to the idea of man-made global warming. Nearly all of the energy the ocean receives comes directly from sunlight.
The current warming trend, and the heat of 2023-2024 is not explained by the rise in gases like CO2. There has been an increase in absorbed solar radiation of around +1W/m²/decade with a record anomaly in 2023 around +1.83W/m² (CERES) or +1.31W/m² (ERA5). This is correlated with total solar irradiance, which reached an all time record-breaking high in 2023 as confirmed by satellite measurement. 90% of this solar radiation is absorbed directly by the ocean. 1% is absorbed by the atmosphere. Changing Greenhouse gas concentration has no effect on this increase in ASR. There is more energy from the Sun reaching the ocean, and this is warming it, and then the ocean is warming the atmosphere, then the atmosphere is radiating this energy away into space at an increasing rate. “The EEI [Earth's Energy Imbalance] trend and 2023 peak are not associated with decreasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations" "Instead, OLR has been increasing and largely offsetting even stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies" (Goessling et al., 2024)
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The Earth's changing climate has extremely low sensitivity to CO2. This is supported by a huge body of scientific evidence. What follows is a list of approximately 50 scientific research papers confirming this. There are at least another 100 that I know of.
Smirnov, 2018 (2X CO2 = 0.4°C) (2X AnthroCO2 = 0.02°C).
Chen et al., 2023 (2X CO2 [380 to 760 ppm] = 2.26 W/m² TOA forcing, 0.72°C).
Smirnov, 2016 (2X CO2 = 0.4°C) (316-402 ppm = 0.15°C).
Florides and Christodoulides, 2009 (2X CO2 = ~0.02°C).
Clark, 2013 +100 ppm CO2 = 1.5 W/m² [0.067°C].
Wong and Minnett, 2018 3XCO2 [1,071 ppm] = 0.5 W/m² [0.022°C].
Khilyuk and Chilingar, 2003 (2XCO2 = <0.01°C).
Miskolczi, 2007 (2XCO2 = 0.24°C).
Coe et al., 2021 (2XCO2 [400 to 800 ppm] = 0.5°C).
Siem and Olsen, 2023 (CO2 rising from 400 ppm to 1,000,000 ppm = -0.22°C cooling).
Schildknecht, 2020 (2XCO2 = 0.5°C).
Newell and Dopplick, 1979 (2X CO2 = ~0.25°C ).
Ramanathan, 1981 (2X CO2 = ~0.5°C).
Kauppinen and Malmi, 2019 (2X CO2 = ~0.24°C, human contribution 0.01°C/century).
Idso, 1998 (2X CO2 = ~0.4°C).
Krainov and Smirnov, 2019 (2X CO2 = 0.4°C, 2X anthroCO2 = 0.02°C).
Stallinga, 2020 (2X CO2 = <0.5 °C).
Kauppinen and Malmi, 2023 CO2 increase of 90 ppm (1980-2022) adds 0.03°C.
Gates et al., 1981 (2X CO2 = 0.3°C).
Gray, 2009 (2X CO2 = ~0.4°C).
Idso, 1988 (2x CO2 = 0.4°C).
Harde, 2014 (2X CO2 = 0.6°C).
Ollila, 2012 (2X CO2 = 0.5 °C).
Feis and Schwarzkopf, 1981 (2X CO2 = 0.00°C).
Lightfoot and Mamer, 2014 (2XCO2 = 0.33°C).
Zdunkowski et al., 1975 (2X CO2 = <0.5°C).
Cederlöf, 2014 (2X CO2 = 0.35°C).
Idso, 1980 (2X CO2 = ≤ 0.26°C ).
Harde, 2017 (2XCO2 = 0.7°C ).
Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023 2XCO2 = 0.015°C.
Schuurmans, 1983 (2XCO2 = ~0.3°C ).
Kissin, 2015 (2XCO2 = ~0.6°C).
Ollila (2019) (2XCO2 = ~0.6°C).
Holmes, 2018 (2XCO2 = -0.03°C).
Harde and Schnell, 2022 (2XCO2 = 0.7°C).
Weare and Snell, 1974 (2X CO2 = 0.7°C, 6XCO2 = 1.7°C).
Rasool and Schneider, 1971 2XCO2 = 0.8°C, 8xCO2 = <2°C.
Smirnov, 2022 (2XCO2 = 0.6°C).
Lindzen and Choi, 2011 (2X CO2 = 0.7°C).
Kimoto, 2015 (2X CO2= ~0.16°C).
Ollila, 2014 (2X CO2 = ~ 0.6°C).
Harde, 2016 (2X CO2 = 0.7°C).
Evans, 2016 (2X CO2 = <0.5°C).
Gervais, 2016 (2X CO2 = <0.6°C).
Soon, Connolly, and Connolly, 2015 (2X [400 ppm] CO2 = 0.44°C).
Reinhart, 2017 (2X [400 ppm] CO2 = 0.24°C).
Balling Jr, 1994 (2XCO2 = <1.0°C).
Smirnov, 2020 (2XCO2 = <0.6°C).
Kauppinen and Malmi, 2019 (2X CO2 ≈ 0.24°C).
Abbot and Marohasy, 2017 (2XCO2= <0.6°C).
Gray, 2018 (2XCO2 = 0.5°C).
There is no climate crisis. There is no evidence of a climate crisis, and CO2 is certainly not the control knob for the climate.
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As regards ocean acidification, it is estimated that the ocean’s global mean surface pH may have declined (i.e., become less alkaline and thus more “acidic”) by -0.07 to -0.08 in the last 200 years — from pH8.12 during pre-industrial times to 8.04 to 8.05 today (Wei et al, 2015). N.B. The decline in pH occurred before 1930.
However, and very importantly when you look the data after CO2 emissions began rising precipitously in the 1930s, the oceans have become less “acidic”!!!
By way of comparison, from one season to the next, or over the course of less than 6 months, pH levels naturally change by ±0.15 pH units, or twice the overall rate of the last 200 years. On a per-decade scale, the changes are even more pronounced. Oceanic pH values naturally fluctuate up and down by up to 0.6 U within a span of a decade, with an overall range between 7.66 and 8.40. This decadal rate of pH change is larger than the overall 200-year span (0.07-0.08) by a factor of 8. Indeed the daily noted maximum pH range of 0.7 (Santos et al. 2011) is far greater than the overall change predicted between now and the end of the century.
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Deserts have shrunk considerably since the 1980's. The Sahara shrank by 12,000km² per year 1984-2015(Liu & Xue, 2020). The Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime. "The greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year"(NASA, 2019). Observations of Earth’s vegetative cover since the year 2000 by NASA’s Terra satellite show a 10% increase in vegetation in the first 20 years of the century. Global tree canopy cover increased by 2.24 million square kilometers (865,000 square miles) between 1982 and 2016 (Nature, 2018). As well as human intervention, the reasons for this include forests expanding polewards aided by additional CO2 and a slight rise in temperature. Increased CO2 causes this in two ways: it has a direct fertilising effect (the CFE), and it increases drought tolerance by reducing stomata. This greening of the Earth due to CO2 is now "an indisputable fact" (Chen et al, 2024). In fact, 55.15% of those areas greening have been doing so at an accelerated rate since 2001. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution the Earth's primary productivity has increased by more than 30% (Campbell et al, 2017 and Haverd et al, 2020).
Zhu, Piao, & Myneni, 2016 calculate that 70% of Earth’s global greening in the modern period is due to CO2 and only about 13% is due to fertilizer and land use changes by humans.
The Earth’s natural vegetation productivity actually increased 6% in 18 years (Nemani et al, 2003) with 42% of this increase coming from the Amazon rainforests.
Between 1961 and 2021 global cereal production increased 250% and cereal yield increased over 200%. Land used for cereal hardly increased (Data from World Bank, FAO/UN). This is the only time in human history that you are more likely to be overfed rather than underfed. We should be thankful we were borne into an age of such abundance. A US DoE study (Taylor & Schlenker, 2021) estimated that a 1 ppm increase in CO2 led to an increase of 0.4%, 0.6% and 1% in yield for corn, soybeans and wheat, respectively, and that CO2 increase was the main driver of the 500% yield growth in corn since 1940. Global tomato production has set a record each year for the past 10 years. Banana production has doubled in 20 years. All 10 of the largest sugar crops in global history occurred during the past 10 years. All 10 of the 10 largest rice crop years occurred during the past 10 years (UNFAO). 2023 was another record cereal crop.
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@old-pete UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Mean precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Antarctic Sea Ice,
Tropical Cyclones.
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@old-pete table 12.12 page 1856, section 12.5.2 is as I have stated. It is clearly referenced for anyone to look up and I hope they do. The same goes for the quotes.
The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change:
Increased Flooding: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Meteorological Drought: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Hydrological Drought: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Tropical Cyclones: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Winter Storms: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Thunderstorms: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Hail: not detected, no attribution.
increased lightning: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Extreme Winds: not detected, no attribution.
There is no climate crisis.
The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that certain severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change:
Pages 1761 - 1765, Table 11.A.2 Synthesis table summarising assessments
Heavy Precipitation: 24 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (12 medium confidence), 43 out of 45 low confidence in human attribution.
Agricultural Drought: 31 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend
(14 medium confidence. No high confidence assessment). 42 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (3 medium, no high confidence).
Ecological Drought as above.
Hydrological Drought: 38 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend.
43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (2 medium confidence, no high confidence).
There is no objective observational evidence we are living in a global climate crisis. Zero. Zilch. Nada. None.
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@Aanthanur so IPCC didn't mean it when they said “the assessment of observed trends in the magnitude of runoff, streamflow, and flooding remains challenging, due to the spatial heterogeneity of the signal and to multiple drivers”
"Confidence about peak flow trends over past decades on a global scale is low."
"In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence" s11.5.4, p1569.
"There is low confidence that human influence has affected trends in meteorological droughts in most regions" s11.6.4.5, p1579.
"Identifying past trends in TC remains a challenge...There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multidecadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency - or intensity based metrics" s11.7.1.2, p1585.
"There is overall low confidence is recent changes in the total number of ETCs over both hemispheres"
"Overall there is low confidence in past-century trends in the number and intensity of the strongest ETCs" s11.7.2.1, p1592
"It is not straightforward to make a synthesizing view of trends in severe connective storms [thunderstorms] in different regions. In particular, observational trends in tornadoes, hail and lightning associated with severe connective storms are not robustly detected" s11.7.3.2, p1595.
"the observed intensity of extreme winds is becoming less severe in lower to mid latitudes" s11.7.4, p1598.
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@darkwinter6028 Even the biased UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Mean precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Antarctic Sea Ice,
Tropical Cyclones.
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Since 1900 the global temperature has increased by 1.3°C. In that time humanity has flourished. Life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 to 73 years. Literacy has quadrupled from 21% to 86%. Humans are seven times more productive ($2,241 to $15,212 GDP per capita, per annum). People are better fed, having ⅓ more calories every day (2,192kcal to 2,928kcal). Global extreme poverty rates have tumbled from 70% to less than 10% (<$1 a day). And death from weather events have collapsed by a factor 50 from 241 million down to 5 million even while the global population has increased by a factor of 5.
There is no climate crisis. There is no evidence of a climate crisis.
Even if there is radical climate change (and that is a very, very big 'if') with the manifestation of numerous tipping points (including permafrost thaw, ocean hydrates dissociation, Arctic sea ice loss, rainforest dieback, polar ice sheet loss, AMOC slowdown, and Indian monsoon variability) the disruption to economic growth and well-being will be minimal. The world's economy will continue to grow making everyone much richer. By 2050 world mean consumption per capita should be $29,100 with tipping points or $29,300 without tipping points. Barely noticeable. Apart from it being approximately double what it is now. By 2100 world mean consumption per capita should be $71,000 with or without tipping points (Dietz et al, 2021).
This is the most fortunate time to be alive in the whole of history.
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