Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "The Fairy Tales of the Fossil Fuel Industry — and a Better Climate Story | Luisa Neubauer | TED" video.

We are not in a climate crisis when you look at the data: Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) 1980-2021 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. The IPCC reports in AR6, chapter 11, "The total global frequency of TC [tropical cyclone] formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence)." Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricaines is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. What the data from NOAA SPC shows about tornados: EF1-EF5 (1954-2022) no trend; EF3-EF5 (most destructive) (1954-2022) 50% decline. No EF5s in US since 2013 (a record absence). The Global Land Precipitation Anomaly from AR5 will disappoint with deviations from the average increasing by 0.2% per decade, but if you look at the actual data, it's just very variable over the decades. Drought appears to be decreasing (Watts et al, 2018) measured by SPI 1901-2017. Deaths from natural disasters are about 0.6% of what they were a century ago. What else? Oh, deserts like the Sahara have shrunk considerably and the Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime (NASA).
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@Franck R Sorry was my cherry-picking data too global for you. I know I quoted the IPCC but it's reports are novels really. This is how it works: The world's leading climate scientists are given that title by cynical politicians. They do not essentially write the final version of the IPCC report. It is reverse engineered. The Summary for Policymakers is thrashed out by a very large group of politicos at the UN. Line by line. Remember, these are not scientists, but government lackies. Then they go back to information the scientists gave them and change it. The scientific statements must conform to the political ones, not the other way around. The IPCC was set up to find man-made global warming and when you look for something you find it, and indeed they have on the face of it, but when you look deeper you find a dearth of real evidence. Take AR5, that says all observed warming (0.66°C) since 1950 is due to combined anthropogenic forcing (Fig. 10.5, IPCC core writing team, page 6). This relies upon modelling, or rather multi-modelling. In fact when you lift the curtain it relies on 15 models (Fig. 10.4, page 882). These models are all over the place. The models' results are not consistent with the assumption that there is a clear connection between GHGs and warming. GISS-EH-2 is particularly 'not well constrained' as the terminology goes. "Scaling factors" then have to be applied so things fit with the HadCRUT dataset. Some of the scaling factors are even negative! Explain why that has to be done!
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@franckr6159 Please just try to explain what I asked you to explain. Enlighten me.
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@franckr6159 It's all pure nonsense. Enjoy yourself.
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@Franck R This won't have been the first time an idea has taken hold in a society, and that idea grew beyond the bounds of what was real or justified. Take religion and the terrifying or absurd action people will take in the name of their God. Or political ideologies that sound appealing to the masses like communism but the result has been the death of 100 million people or more, and still people believe in it and are willing to try it. This environmental crusade has all the hallmarks of one of these mass manias. A dogma that cannot be questioned (all warming is due to CO2). A priestly caste that are exempt from our trials and tribulations (the politicians in their private jets). A doomsday where the wicked (that's everybody, by the way) will be punished by fire and flood. The possibility of redemption but only through penance (living in cold dark homes, existing in 15 minute cities, and subsisting on gruel and insects), which won't apply to the priestly class. I was brought up a Catholic and the whole pattern of this Climate Crisis nonsense fits to the template beautifully. People are hard wired to be religious so when they stop believing in God they don't believe in nothing they believe in anything. Demagogues will exploit this. A nice way to summarise it is the 3Gs. The reason people who matter do things is for God, Glory, or Greed. Look at the people making a fuss about the Earth getting a bit warmer and they are doing for one of those three or a combination thereof. Stay sceptical.
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@Franck R The IPCC reports are built on models that don't model reality, as I have pointed out, and for which you have no insight. Their proxy data sets of the CWP don't agree with each other and their temperature 'records' are falsifications that cool the distant past and warm the recent observations. It just won't do. As I have said the warming is just over a tenth of a degree per decade. You get marginal changes in climate patterns: northern Europe gets a bit wetter, southern Europe gets a bit drier. No real pattern in storminess. Sea-level rise of about 1 foot (30cm) by the end of the century. A third of the Netherlands is below sea-level and they're doing fine. The climate was going to change. Just plan for it. It's not the end of the world (which is an idea people have had in every age). Where I live the flowers will come out a little earlier in the spring and that's it. Nobody would notice if you didn't tell them.
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