Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "'This drought is killing us': Sicilian locals left without running water | ITV News" video.

  1. It's so easy to look up data for Sicily, and show rainfall has increased. The trend has increased from 402mm in 1979 to 519mm in 2023 (mean annual precipitation ERA5 ECMWF). So it has increased by more than ¼. Drought is a perfectly normal aspect of Sicily's Mediterranean climate. The main problem is water loss through poor infrastructure maintenance. No doubt this is exasperated by endemic corruption on the island. The people on Sicily are suffering not from a lack of rainfall, but a lack of good governance. This ITV news item insults its viewers intelligence.
    7
  2. ​@volkerengels5298 It's so easy to look up data for Sicily, and show rainfall has increased. The trend has increased from 402mm in 1979 to 519mm in 2023 (mean annual precipitation ERA5 ECMWF). So it has increased by more than ¼. Drought is a perfectly normal aspect of Sicily's Mediterranean climate. The main problem is water loss through poor infrastructure maintenance. No doubt this is exasperated by endemic corruption on the island. The people on Sicily are suffering not from a lack of rainfall, but a lack of good governance. This ITV news item insults its viewers intelligence.
    6
  3.  @petewright4640  It has been wetter in the past. It has been drier in the past. This is natural variability. It has also been warmer in the past and cooler in the past.
    2
  4. @petewright4640  "Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period" Margaritelli et al, 2020. It shows that the sea around the island was warmer than present for most of the last 3,000 years, and for an extended period during the Roman Era it was significantly warmer. Natural variability.
    2
  5.  @petewright4640  The data for Sicily from the paper shows that the current changes have in no way gone beyond what can be explained by natural variability.
    2
  6.  @petewright4640  It does not follow that once changes have been observed that the causes of those changes will be known.
    2
  7. @babuvangu7220  Your time period from 2003 to the present is too short to make reference to climate change, man-made or natural. The minimum period is generally considered to be at least 30 years. Your period also excludes the late eighties and early nineties, a ten year period that was far drier than recently, and the driest period since 1950 with repeated annual rainfall anomalies of minus 200mm or more.
    2
  8.  @Jc-ms5vv  You wish I wasn't a scientist.
    1
  9. @Jc-ms5vv  "Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period" Margaritelli et al, 2020. It shows that the sea around the island was warmer than present for most of the last 3,000 years, and for an extended period during the Roman Era it was significantly warmer. Natural variability.
    1
  10. @petewright4640  There is no "Global" warming. Satellite data from 1979 onwards (ERSSTv3b) shows the Southern Ocean has cooled by upto 0.2°C per decade and Antarctica has also been cooling by an impressive 0.7°C per decade, with the east of the continent cooling substantial and statistically significantly by 2.8°C since 1980 (reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset). The southeastern US has cooled. There has been little warming in the tropics. Most warming has taken place in the continental landmasses of the Northern Hemisphere, a little north of 60°.
    1
  11. @petewright4640  Hang on. Before we go greenhouse, let's be clear, the recent range of data for Sicily is well within early climatic ranges for the island. There is nothing beyond the previous natural variability of the island's climate.
    1
  12.  @petewright4640  That is a reasonable and logical position to take.
    1
  13.  @MrAlexq1  That's a good point. There are nine days with rain in the weather forecast for Catania before the end of the month.
    1
  14.  @babuvangu7220  The climate had been drying since the seventies.
    1