Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Why our brains are wired to ignore the climate crisis | All Hail The Planet" video.

  1. The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Tropical Cyclones.
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  2. @Richard482  Sea level appears to be rising at a small 3mm per year. Atolls in the Pacific nations of the Marshall Islands and Kiribati, as well as the Maldives archipelago in the Indian Ocean, have risen up to 8 percent in size (Ford and Kench, 2020). 89% of the globe’s islands and 100% of large islands have stable or growing coasts (Duvat, 2019). No island larger than 10ha decreased in size. As regards NOAA tide gauge data, let's look at some examples from around the world. N.B. All sites show a linear Relative Sea Level Trend: Kanmen, China 2.40mm/yr; Sydney, Australia 0.75mm/yr; Ferandina Beach, Florida 2.20mm/yr; Los Angeles, California 1.04mm/yr; Mera, Japan 3.8mm; Cascais, Portugal 1.32mm/yr; Newlyn, UK 1.94mm/yr. Jevrejeva, et al (2014) estimated 2 mm/year (± 0.3), and Church and White (2006) estimated 1.7mm/year (± 0.3). So that's a total rise of between 126 and 151mm (less than 6 inches) from 2024 to the end of the century. Or try PSMSL data: Kwajalein (Marshall Islands) 1.95mm/yr; Maldives (Indian Ocean) 3.21mm/yr; Lautoka (Fiji Islands, Pacific Ocean) 3.50mm/yr; Port Elisabeth (South Africa) 2.34mm/yr. Remember, all linear over many decades, or more than a century. Anyway, if you prefer satellite data NOAA's trend was +3.0mm/year Global Mean Sea Level (1993-2022), again linear last time I looked for each set of satellite data (but hey, it may have accelerated in the last month). NASA satellite data (1993-present) for Global Mean Sea Level shows a rise of 3.3mm per year. That's the same as two stacked penny coins. There is no relationship to the exponential increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. It's going to be decades before even your big toe is submerged.
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  3. @Richard482  The problem with all these models and projections is that Antarctica is not playing the game. The whole of East and West Antarctica is cooling, and has been for 40 years. East Antarctica has cooled by an impressive 0.7°C per decade. Resulting in an overall substantial and statistically significant decline of 2.8°C since 1980. So much for "Global" warming. I am referring to a paper by Zhu et al (2021) that looked at the reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset. Check out table 4. Furthermore, the Antarctic Peninsula ice has since been shown to be on the increase “The eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has grown in area over the last 20 years, due to changing wind and sea ice patterns.” (University of Cambridge, May, 2022.) In reality, "there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979." (Fogt et al, 2022. Published in Nature) "since 1979 is the only time all four seasons demonstrate significant increases in total Antarctic sea ice in the context of the twentieth century". A study of Antarctic ice shelves from 1980 to 2021 (Banwell et al, 2023) showed meltwater volume dropped with "decreasing trend in both annual melt days and meltwater production volume over the 41 years.” "Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023). It is from a paper entitled "Change in Antarctic Ice Shelf Area from 2009 to 2019". They use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on 34 ice shelves in Antarctica from 2009 to 2019. Also, as the mass gain (661Gt) was given, you could calculate the volume of the ice gained using the formula: Volume = Mass ÷ Density (assume Density of glacier ice 0.9167 Gt/km³). This would give you (well not you obviously) an Ice Gain Volume ≈721km³. That's how much extra of the lovely white stuff there is around Antarctica. Imagine standing in the centre of this extra ice. It would stretch beyond the horizon in all directions and would be 45 storeys high. The Greenland ice sheet is thought to contribute 0.7mm/yr to sea-level rise. That sounds small because it is pitifully small. Antarctica contributes 0.36mm to sea-level rise per year. (That's essentially nothing as well.) The remainder is due to the thermal expansion of the ocean, and is a signal of past warming rather than current.
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  4. @Richard482  Zhang et al (2023) shows there is a significant cooling trend over much of Antarctica this century.
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  5.  @Richard482  I suggest you reread the comment I posted about 2 hours ago.
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  6.  @Richard482  Have you first accepted that Antarctica has significantly cooled?
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  7. @Richard482  That paper states that warming is localised to the South Pole (which remains very sub zero), and that the Antarctic Peninsula is cooling. These conditions are not going to lead to Antarctica making any contribution to a rise in sea level.
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