Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Scripps News"
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The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Average precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Tropical Cyclones.
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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@gavinmoody5678 Record heat: If you took away El Niño, a record increase in Total Solar Irradiance, and the Tonga eruption (all natural events) there would be nothing to see.
The Tonga eruption injected 142 megatonnes of water vapour into the stratosphere, increasing its water content by 15%. Water vapour is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2.
Total solar irradiance: satellite data from 1979 onwards shows June 2023 at an all time high in over 40 years of measurements (ncei.noaa). There were lows below 1361 W/m² in 2019 to current highs over 1362 W/m² in June (using a lowess curve, which also shows the fastest rate of increase during this recent period). So we are looking at a change of around 1½ Watts over the course of 5 years (the maximum difference is 2.1W/m²). That may not sound much but it exceeds the increase in the Earth's Energy Imbalance (0.9 W/m², 2018 - 1.97 W/m², 2023) (NASA CERES EBAF TOA). Overall the current increase in solar irradiance should give a direct global heating effect of +0.1°C, with an indirect effect of +0.2°C (after Schmutz, 2021). This increase in solar irradiance is related to an earlier than expected increase in sunspot activity, which has not yet reached its zenith, and that may not happen for several years (Royal Observatory Belgium), so further heating from this cause can be expected.
So increase in TSI 2019- 2023 = 2.1W/m2. Increase in EEI for the same period ≈ 1W/m². Maybe I'm being dense, but doesn't that mean that without the increase in TSI, the EEI would be in negative territory?
Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two.
The ocean has warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2.
There is no upward trend in temperature anomalies for summer 2023 according to NOAA USCRN including July. In fact there is no upward trend in the data at all (2005-present).
Global Temperature anomaly for July, 2023 = +0.64°C.
Global Temperature anomaly for April 1998 +0.62°C
Global Temperature anomaly for February 2016 = +0.70°C. (UAH v6)
Record disaster: There has been a 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000 (CRED). Normalised disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and human mortality due to extreme weather has decreased by more than 95% since 1920, so you're 50 times less likely to die from a climate-related disaster in a world that's 1°C warmer than 100 years ago (EM-DAT, CRED/UC). Deaths from drought have declined by 99%!
Climate change saved 555,103 lives in England and Wales between 2001 and 2020 (ONS, 2022).
Glacier melt: data from NOAA (2022 Arctic Report Card) show winter (March) ice coverage has hardly changed since '79, and that the summer (September) coverage trend had stopped declining since 2007. In September 2022, sea ice reached a minimum extent of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the extent in 2007, which means the Arctic summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 16 years. It was almost as high as 1995. Summer 2023 is one of the coldest in several decades in the Arctic, and May 2023 was the coldest on record there.
The Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) increase for the year 2022-23 was a massive - and well above 1981-2010 average - 450 billion tonnes of ice accumulated. 5 out of the last 7 years have seen huge accumulations above the average (1981-2010). Greenland has been cooling since 2012.
Smog: caused by particulates, not the concentration of CO2. The effects, as you identified are local not global.
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT WE ARE LIVING IN A GLOBAL CLIMATE CRISIS.
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