Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Channel 4 News"
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@AA-vi1cc NOAA (2022 Arctic Report Card) show winter (March) ice coverage has hardly changed since '79, and that the summer (September) coverage trend had stopped declining since 2007. In September 2022, sea ice reached a minimum extent of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the extent in 2007, which means the Arctic summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 16 years. It was almost as high as 1995. Summer 2023 is one of the coldest in several decades in the Arctic, and May 2023 was the coldest on record there. The Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) for the past 11 months is a massive but very normal 450 billion tonnes of ice accumulated. 5 out of the last 7 years have seen huge accumulations above the average (1981-2010).
The whole of East and West Antarctica is cooling, and has been for 40 years. East Antarctica has cooled by an impressive 0.7°C per decade. Resulting in an overall substantial and statistically significant decline of 2.8°C since 1980. So much for "Global" warming. I am referring to a paper by Zhu et al (2021) that looked at the reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset. Check out table 4. Furthermore, the Antarctic Peninsula ice has since been shown to be on the increase “The eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has grown in area over the last 20 years, due to changing wind and sea ice patterns.” (University of Cambridge, May, 2022.)
"Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023).
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@MyKharli To be clear...It is reasonable from observations to say the Earth is warming, especially in comparison to the Little Ice Age baseline. It does not appear possible to discern how much of the warming is man-made, so it seems unreasonable to affirm that all of the warming is man-made, but adding CO2 to the atmosphere should cause some rise in temperature. However, the warming response should be logarithmic, and empirically, the ECS is around 1.8K.
When you look at actual instrumental records, the warming is uneven both spatially and temporally. There is very little warming around the tropics. The Canadian Arctic has warmed. Continental Antarctica has cooled significantly (so no "global" warming). Maybe it's a Bond Event. Within the shallow warming, there are large annual swings greater than the decadal rate of change.
It is also debatable how hot the modern era is in comparison to recent and distant warming events, and when making a fair comparison with proxies by using the same resolution (say 200 year) the rate of warming becomes comparable to, or smaller than previous natural events.
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The retreat of Himalayan glaciers began before the current warming and was caused by reduced precipitation (Shekhar, 2017. Singh, 2020.). This supported by further work done by Schneider (2014), and Chen (2019). The retreat was due to a reduction in precipitation. Currently, precipitation is half of what it was 20 years previously. Research by Salerno (2015) "challenges the assumption of the main driver [i.e. temperature] of glacier mass changes".
Satellite data shows the glaciers in the Karakoram largely unaffected by current warming. Of 1219 glaciers surveyed, 79.5% were stable, 5.3% were advancing, and 7.6% retreating (Rankl, 2014).
Swiss Alps glacier extents were smaller than 2000 C.E. during the warmer-than-today Roman and Medieval Warm Periods and throughout 75% of the Holocene, or when temperatures were 1-3°C warmer (Schimmelpfennig et al., 2022).
Glaciologists Bohleber et al, 2020 of the Austrian Academy of Science discovered from ice cores that the 3500-meter high Weißseespitze summit was ice free 5900 years ago.
There is “no evidence” that Jostedalsbreen, a southern Norway glacier, even existed during the first several thousand years of the Holocene, or when CO2 hovered near 260 ppm (Winker, 2021).
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. Glacial retreat is certainly not evidence of this.
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