Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Forbes Breaking News" channel.

  1. There is no climate emergency. The Earth was warmer in the recent and distant past. It also warmed faster in the past.
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  2. @Jay Kanta  Very well then, if I must...it was warmer during the Medieval (Elbert, 2013, 2.9°C above present), Roman (Margaritelli, 2020, 2°C above present), and Minoan Warm Periods (Lécuyer, 2018, 4°C above present). It was certainly warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum, so during our current interglacial. If you want a citation, try Quaternary Research Volume 53, Issue 3, May 2000, Pages 302-311. This makes the point that it was upto 7°C warmer on the shores of the Arctic during that time, with trees growing on the shores of the ocean (which would have been ice free in the summer), far to the north of the current treeline. The northern coast of Greenland was, during parts of the Pleistocene, warmer by double figures than today. The summer and winter average minimum temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius and 17 degrees C, respectively, were more than 10 degrees C warmer than present day. I think it was a maximum of 19 °C warmer than today. Remarkable. That one's been all over the news but if you want a citation I think it was in the 7th December 2022 issue of Nature. The original research was done by some Danish chappy. If you want some really rapid warming look at the CET (Central England Temperature) Instrumental Record between 1690 and 1730 (3°C increase). That might not be reliable enough for you though. Why not try the Dansgaard–Oeschger events? The Dansgaard–Oeschger events were global (Dima et al, 2018).About 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet increased by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years, but a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common for these events. Some researchers believe the Medieval Warm Period was one of these, but I'm not convinced. However, I can provide upwards of 100 citations of science papers that together show the Medieval Warm Period was qualitatively and quantitatively warmer than the current warming, and that it was global in nature, focused around the year 1000.
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  3. No. There has been a 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000 (CRED). Normalised disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and human mortality due to extreme weather has decreased by more than 95% since 1920.
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  4. Pity Al got it wrong. Wasn't the Arctic supposed to have melted by now?
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  5. Propaganda. Burn acreage was much, much, higher in the US during the 1920's, 30's and 40's. It peaked in 1930 at well over 50,000,000 acres. The trend is downwards (1926-2020 NIFC US) eventhough CO2 has increased exponentially. For 2000 onwards the average burn acreage is much less than 10,000,000 acres. The number of fires has also declined. Remember CO2 was increasing all the time. For the whole of Canada the largest burn acreage was 1989, and there is no trend for the period 1980-2021. Over that same period the trend for number of fires was slightly downwards (CNFDB). Note that 2020 had the lowest recorded burn acreage and number of fires. Data for Siberia seems harder to come by. However, for the period 1997-2016, the trend was highly variable (by a factor of 4) but the trend for the annual burn acreage was downwards (Global Fire Data). Furthermore, with regard to the IPCC, they have not detected or attributed the number of fires or the burn acreage to man-made climate change. Also IPCC only has medium confidence ( that's a 50-50) that weather conditions that promote wildfires (fire weather) have become more probable in southern Europe, northern Eurasia, the USA, and Australia over the last century. Note that annual Global Wildfire Carbon Emissions have been declining dramatically since 2003, with 2022 being the lowest on record (Copernicus). There is no climate crisis.
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  6.  @astronautical1082  No.
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  7. @Scott Koontz  Yawn. Ignoring your ridiculousness. As I pointed out in a previous comment, as regards the Medieval Warm Period, there are a large number of scientific research papers which confirm my point of view. I would not hold it otherwise. They span the Earth's continents and cover the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
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  8.  @scottekoontz  You've brought nothing of worth to this discussion. You simply insult. You demean yourself. But then what else can you do?
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  9. No. From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes."
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  10. No. NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. It makes no difference if you look at the Pacific. Using data from the JMA 1951-2022 we see typhoon activity trending downwards for over 7 decades.
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  11. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Mean precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Antarctic Sea Ice, Tropical Cyclones
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  12. No. What the data from NOAA SPC shows about tornados: EF1-EF5 (1954-2022) no trend; EF3-EF5 (most destructive) (1954-2022) 50% decline. No EF5s in US since 2013 (a record absence). There has been no clear change in annual precipitation over the Earth's landmasses between 1850-2000 (Wijngaarden, 2015). Drought appears to be decreasing globally (Watts et al, 2018) measured by SPI 1901-2017.
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  13. @astro nautical  I think my point is that there is objectively no climate emergency. What may be happening is political group-think on eco-catastrophism is infecting institutions, science and otherwise, that one would hope were immune to their enticements. The power, status and public funds would constitute such enticements. But that's just my supposition. It would be hard to find data either way on such a hypothesis. Unlike climate data.
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  14. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Tropical Cyclones. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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  15. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Tropical Cyclones. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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  16. She should go back to serving drinks. There is no climate crisis. 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000. Accumulated cyclone energy shows no increasing trend. Global hurricane landfalls shows no trend. Downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers. NOAA: "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes." NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. The trend for over 7 decades has been downwards in the Pacific as well. Drought appears to be decreasing globally measured by SPI 1901-2017. Global trends show no increasing flooding frequency or severity. For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes have declined 98%. Deserts have shrunk considerably since the 1980's. The Sahara shrank by 12,000km² per year 1984-2015. The Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime. The Great Barrier Reef's coral cover has reached the greatest extent ever recorded. On extinction the rate is very low: 900 known lost species for 2.1 million known species in 500 years, so from observations there are an average of slightly less than 2 species lost every year. Global temperatures maxed out in 2016 and have been lower ever since. There is no climate crisis.
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  17. Weather is not climate. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Tropical Cyclones. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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  18. Burn acreage was much, much, higher in the US during the 1920's, 30's and 40's. It peaked in 1930 at well over 50,000,000 acres. The trend is downwards (1926-2020 NIFC US) eventhough CO2 has increased exponentially. For 2000 onwards the average burn acreage is much less than 10,000,000 acres. The number of fires has also declined. Remember CO2 was increasing all the time. Burn area for US in 2023 was 3rd lowest on record. It was under 3 million acres well below the ten year average of 7 million, the lowest since 1998 (NIFC), and 3% of the burn in the 1900s. Annual share of the total land area burnt by wildfires in the US went from 0.6% (2012) to 0.4% (2024)(GWIS/FAO UN). There's basically no increasing trend in the data. The areas burnt are comparatively tiny.
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  19. Heat waves have not been increasing in intensity or frequency in the United States. Data from NOAA's Climate Reference Network shows no sustained increase in daily high temperatures in the United States since at least 2005. In recent decades in the United States, heat waves have been far less severe than they were in the 1930s. At that time Heatwaves were more than 6 times worse with greater frequency and covering a larger area than the last decade (EPA). The all-time high temperature records set in most states occurred in the first half of the twentieth century.
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  20. Propaganda. There is nothing unusual about the fire season in Europe. Weekly burn area is way below average. Cumulative burn area is average. Weekly Number of fires are below. Cumulative number of fires are bang in the middle of the normal range. The same is true for Greece, and the fires at present are a tiny fraction of the maximum recorded (EFFIS). There is no climate crisis.
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  21. No. Global temperatures maxed out in 2016 and have been lower ever since (UAH v6 global satellite data). 500 billion tonnes of emissions in that time (14% of all man-made CO2) and no warming. There is no climate crisis.
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  22. If you hadn't have told me, i wouldn't have noticed. There is absolutely no evidence that we are in a climate crisis. Quite the contrary. For example, there has been a 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000 (CRED). Normalised disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and human mortality due to extreme weather has decreased by more than 95% since 1920.
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  23. This is nonsense. It was hotter in the recent and distant past. There is no satellite data before 1979, and there was no real network of temperature stations outside Europe and America before the 1950s, so "hottest ever" is not very long! It was much hotter in America in the 1930s. Heatwaves were more than 6 times worse with greater frequency and covering a larger area (Kunkel, 2022, EPA). Further back the Vikings grew barley on Greenland, which is impossible today. This is bull meant to scare people into giving up their prosperity. Satellite data shows the Earth is continuing to warm at around one-tenth of a degree Celsius per decade. If we didn't have thermometers we couldn't even notice it.
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  24. There is no climate crisis. The Earth was warmer in the recent and distant past. It also warmed faster in the past.
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