Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Hurricane predictions soar in 2023 as climate change heats up the globe" video.

  1. Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) 1980-2021 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes." Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricaines is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. There is also no trend in the frequency of major hurricanes (Cat 3 +) for the same period, although the trend for the last 20 years is downwards. It makes no difference if you look at the Pacific. Using data from the JMA 1951-2022 we see typhoon activity trending downwards for over 7 decades.
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  2. There is evidence cited in AR6 (IPCC) that Australia is experiencing the lowest frequency of tropical cyclones in the last 550 to 1,500 years, and that windspeed overland throughout the Northern Hemisphere has been dropping in recent decades. Also the number of intense storms (below 960 mbars) in the Northern Atlantic has fallen sharply since 1990 (Tilinina et al, 2021). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 report, Chapter 11,"Weather and Climate Extreme Events in Changing Climate" concludes that changes in the frequency and intensity of most severe weather events (with corresponding intense rainfall) have not been detected nor can they be attributed to human caused climate change.
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  3. @allan339  Named storms do not measure the amount of energy in the atmosphere, ACE does. 2005: 73 named storms, ACE 670. 2020: 75 named storms, ACE 441.4 (so 2020 had more named storms but they had less energy). The year with the largest ACE value is 1992 (quite some time ago) with 880.3. The problem for climate alarmism is there's no upward trendline in the data. It appears almost random over the years (although it may be related to the AMO). If you're interested in year by year data, and you haven't seen it yet, try CSU Department of Science Tropical Meteorology Project.
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  4. @allan339  And 2022 had the fifth lowest ACE value. There is no upward trend in the data. It fits better with the AMO.
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