Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "TED-Ed" channel.

There are no actual global observational data on changes to permafrost. The Li et al 2022 paper 'Changes in permafrost extent and active layer thickness in the Northern Hemisphere from 1969 to 2018' states "The temporal change characteristics of the permafrost extent and ALT [active layer thickness] for the NH [Northern Hemisphere] have not been studied." These things have only been poorly estimated or modelled. The aforementioned paper modelled permafrost extent decreased from 23.25 × 10⁶km2 (average from 1969 to 1973) to 21.64 × 10⁶km2 (average from 2014 to 2018), with a linear rate of −0.023 × 10⁶ km2/a. That's an annual change of 0.099 of a percent. That's negligible and could just as easily be increasing due to the uncertainty in the modelling. Out of global estimated emissions of methane of around 600 Tg CH4 per year, the best estimate of emissions from pan-Arctic permafrost is 1 Tg CH4 per year (Elder et al, 2021), so that's less than 0.17%. It's almost nothing. When it comes to tipping points this is what the IPCC (Special Report on implications of 1.5C or more warming, Chapter 3) says:“there is little evidence for a tipping point in the transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. No evidence has been found for irreversibility or tipping points, suggesting that year-round sea ice will return given a suitable climate”. The IPCC also do not believe the melting of the arctic permafrost will cause a tipping point in the release of warming methane gas “the carbon released to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost is projected to be restricted to 0.09–0.19 Gt C yr–1 at 2°C of global warming and to 0.08–0.16 Gt C yr–1 at 1.5°C, which does not indicate a tipping point”. The Earth's climate is a multi input thermodynamic system and will conform to Le Chatelier's Principle.
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Since 1900 the global temperature has increased by 1.3°C. In that time humanity has flourished. Life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 to 73 years. Literacy has quadrupled from 21% to 86%. Humans are seven times more productive ($2,241 to $15,212 GDP per capita, per annum). People are better fed, having ⅓ more calories every day (2,192kcal to 2,928kcal). Global extreme poverty rates have tumbled from 70% to less than 10% (<$1 a day). And death from weather events have collapsed by a factor 50 from 241 million down to 5 million even while the global population has increased by a factor of 5. There is no climate crisis. There is no evidence of a climate crisis. Even if there is radical climate change (and that is a very, very big 'if') with the manifestation of numerous tipping points (including permafrost thaw, ocean hydrates dissociation, Arctic sea ice loss, rainforest dieback, polar ice sheet loss, AMOC slowdown, and Indian monsoon variability) the disruption to economic growth and well-being will be minimal. The world's economy will continue to grow making everyone much richer. By 2050 world mean consumption per capita should be $29,100 with tipping points or $29,300 without tipping points. Barely noticeable. Apart from it being approximately double what it is now. By 2100 world mean consumption per capita should be $71,000 with or without tipping points (Dietz et al, 2021). This is the most fortunate time to be alive in the whole of history.
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There has been no warming since this was made (UAH v6). There is no climate emergency. The Earth was warmer in the recent and distant past. It also warmed faster in the past.
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@ThorirEy This is nonsense. It was hotter in the recent and distant past. There is no satellite data before 1979, and there was no real network of temperature stations outside Europe and America before the 1950s, so "hottest ever" is not very long! It was much hotter in America in the 1930s. Heatwaves were more than 6 times worse with greater frequency and covering a larger area (Kunkel, 2022, EPA). Further back the Vikings grew barley on Greenland, which is impossible today. This is bull meant to scare people into giving up their prosperity. Satellite data shows the Earth is continuing to warm at around one-tenth of a degree Celsius per decade. If we didn't have thermometers we couldn't even notice it.
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@ThorirEy Global temperatures peaked in 2016, six years ago. Welcome to the present.
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@ThorirEy Yours is essentially an argument from authority. Arguments from authority are based on the idea that a person should conform to the opinion of a perceived authority or authoritative group. Humans have been shown to feel strong emotional pressure to conform to authorities and majority positions. Is that your case? Science, however, does not work by this type of authorised consensus. Arriving at a consensus is a political or social activity that does not have to approach the truth. Einstein understood this. Interestingly, when over 100 scientists published a booklet (Hundert Autoren gegen Einstein, 1931) against him and his work on relativity, he responded "If I were wrong, it would only take one." Scientific consensus has got it very wrong on many things: smoking, pesticides, and more worryingly eugenics, which was widely accepted in the first half of the twentieth century. I fear this conforming to the consensus is happening again in Science with the mirage of a climate crisis. It is much better to remain sceptical.
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There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Antarctic Sea Ice, Tropical Cyclones.
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