Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "12 News" channel.

  1. It was warmer during the Medieval (Elbert, 2013, 2.9°C above present), Roman (Margaritelli, 2020), 2°C above present, also Wang et al, 2013, showing the change was at least hemispheric, and Minoan Warm Periods (Lécuyer, 2018, 4°C above present, links Mediterranean to Greenland Ice so at least hemispheric). It was certainly warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum, so during our current interglacial. If you want a citation, try Quaternary Research Volume 53, Issue 3, May 2000, Pages 302-311. This makes the point that it was upto 7°C warmer on the shores of the Arctic during that time, with trees growing on the shores of the ocean (which would have been ice free in the summer), far to the north of the current treeline. The northern coast of Greenland was, during parts of the Pleistocene, warmer by double figures than today. The summer and winter average minimum temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius and 17 degrees C, respectively, were more than 10 degrees C warmer than present day. I think it was a maximum of 19 °C warmer than today. Remarkable. Maybe it was those pesky Neanderthals driving around in their SUVs. That one's been all over the news but if you want a citation I think it was in the 7th December 2022 issue of Nature. The original research was done by some Danish chappy. If you want some really rapid warming look at the CET (Central England Temperature) Instrumental Record between 1690 and 1730 (3°C increase). That might not be reliable enough for you though. Why not try the Dansgaard–Oeschger events? The Dansgaard–Oeschger events were global (Dima et al, 2018).About 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet increased by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years, but a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common for these events. Some researchers believe the Medieval Warm Period was one of these, but I'm not convinced. However, I can provide upwards of 100 citations of science papers that together show the Medieval Warm Period was qualitatively and quantitatively warmer than the current warming, and that it was global in nature, focused around the year 1000. The current warming began around 1700 prior to any large scale combustion of fossil fuels. Also the warming has been small (1°C) and appears to have been largely beneficial. It has not been smooth, for example there was a period of cooling during the 50s, 60s and 70s (NOAA). When many scientists believed the next ice age had begun. Current warming is smaller than predicted by all models (actual is 0.13°C per decade since 1979, UAH v6) so around ½°C for the past 40 years but no overall warming over the past 8. This will result in a further 1° of warming by 2100 which can be adapted to, as with the previous 1°. Please be aware that the IPCC's (Scenario A) modelled predictions are junk. Back in 1990 they predicted a warming of 0.30-0.34°C per decade. Of course we've only had 0.13°C per decade, which is well below the IPCC's lower bound of 0.20°. IPCC’s business-as-usual scenario was founded on the assumption that CO2 emissions would increase by 10-20% by 2025. The truth, however, is that global CO2 emissions are not 20% above their 1990 level but 60% above it. But there is still no crisis just an unexciting set of observations. As regards the climate models that predict the 4°C warming of our nightmares, even the IPCC believes they are running 'too hot'. They did not correctly predict the current low level of warming, and are not able to mimic past climates. They are junk. Current warming from global satellite data (UAH v6) from 1979 shows warming at a rate of 0.13°C per decade. As there's less than 80 years left in this century, warming will have to accelerate dramatically to nearly 0.4°C a decade. This is unlikely. At the current rate by 2100, a warming of 1°C will have occurred. Hardly noticeable. Barely an inconvenience
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