Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "ThePrint" channel.

  1. There has been a 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000 (CRED). Normalised disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and human mortality due to extreme weather has decreased by more than 95% since 1920, so you're 50 times less likely to die from a climate-related disaster in a world that's 1°C warmer than 100 years ago (EM-DAT, CRED/UC). Deaths from drought have declined by 99%! Climate change saved 555,103 lives in England and Wales between 2001 and 2020 (ONS, 2022). Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) 1980-2021 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes." Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricaines is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. There is also no trend in the frequency of major hurricanes (Cat 3 +) for the same period, although the trend for the last 20 years is downwards. It makes no difference if you look at the Pacific. Using data from the JMA 1951-2022 we see typhoon activity trending downwards for over 7 decades. There is evidence cited in AR6 (IPCC) that Australia is experiencing the lowest frequency of tropical cyclones in the last 550 to 1,500 years, and that windspeed overland throughout the Northern Hemisphere has been dropping in recent decades. Also the number of intense storms (below 960 mbars) in the Northern Atlantic has fallen sharply since 1990 (Tilinina et al, 2021). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 report, Chapter 11,"Weather and Climate Extreme Events in Changing Climate" concludes that changes in the frequency and intensity of most severe weather events (with corresponding intense rainfall) have not been detected nor can they be attributed to human caused climate change. What the data from NOAA SPC shows about tornados: EF1-EF5 (1954-2022) no trend; EF3-EF5 (most destructive) (1954-2022) 50% decline. No EF5s in US since 2013 (a record absence). There has been no clear change in annual precipitation over the Earth's landmasses between 1850-2000 (Wijngaarden, 2015). Drought appears to be decreasing globally (Watts et al, 2018) measured by SPI 1901-2017. Deserts have shrunk considerably since the 1980's. The Sahara shrank by 12,000km² per year 1984-2015(Liu & Xue, 2020). The Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime. "The greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year"(NASA, 2019). Observations of Earth’s vegetative cover since the year 2000 by NASA’s Terra satellite show a 10% increase in vegetation in the first 20 years of the century. Global tree canopy cover increased by 2.24 million square kilometers (865,000 square miles) between 1982 and 2016 (Nature, 2018). As well as human intervention, the reasons for this include forests expanding polewards aided by additional CO2 and a slight rise in temperature. The Earth’s natural vegetation productivity actually increased 6% in 18 years (Nemani et al, 2003) with 42% of this increase coming from the Amazon rainforests. Between 1961 and 2021 cereal production increased 250% and cereal yield increased over 200%. Land used for cereal hardly increased (Data from World Bank, FAO/UN). This is the only time in human history that you are more likely to be overfed rather than underfed. We should be thankful we were borne into an age of such abundance. A US DoE study (Taylor & Schlenker, 2021) estimated that a 1 ppm increase in CO2 led to an increase of 0.4%, 0.6% and 1% in yield for corn, soybeans and wheat, respectively, and that CO2 increase was the main driver of the 500% yield growth in corn since 1940. Global tomato production has set a record each year for the past 10 years. All 10 of the largest sugar crops in global history occurred during the past 10 years. All 10 of the 10 largest rice crop years occurred during the past 10 years (UNFAO). The Great Barrier Reef's coral cover reached the greatest extent ever recorded in 2022 (AIMS) despite repeated bleaching. If you look at the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) data, the WIO (West Indian Ocean) shows 26% hard coral cover in 1985 upto 30% in 2020. South Asia reefs shows a decline around 2000 to below 25% then a regrowth to around 40% (2010) and a decline to 25% (2020). The Red Sea shows no change at around 25% (1995-2020). So the pattern in these three areas show no relationship to each other or to a changing climate. The Caribbean region reefs have a cover of around 0.15 ± 0.02. There is no evidence of a major reduction in coral cover in the Caribbean over the last two decades. GCRMN data for the most important coral bioregion, the East Asia Seas, with 30% of the world’s coral reefs, and containing the most diverse coral of the ‘Coral Triangle’, show no statistically significant net coral loss since records began. The East Asia region has the biggest human population living in close proximity to reefs, and is located in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool – the hottest major water mass on earth. Life is most diverse in the warmest parts of the world’s oceans. This has been shown across 13 major taxonomic groups from zooplankton to marine mammals. Warmer water = more biodiversity. This is a scare story about things you cannot see. Extinction rates (1500-2009) peaked around 1900 at 50 per decade. Extinction rates have declined dramatically to around 4 to per decade in the 2000s. So the extinction rate is very low: 900 known lost species for 2.1 million known species in 500 years (IUCN), so from observations there are an average of slightly less than 2 species lost every year. Out of a known species total of over 2 million. That gives an annual percentage loss of less than 0.0001%. That's background extinction. At that frequency it will take over 930,000 years to reach 80% extinction of species experienced at the K-T boundary that saw the extinction of the dinosaurs. Of course, extinction is a natural part of the evolution of life on this planet with the average lifespan of a species thought to be about 1 million years (cf 930,000). It is estimated that 99.9% of all plant and animal species that have existed have gone extinct. It should also be noted that no families or genera have become extinct in the last 500 years. In fact marine diversity at the taxonomic level of families is the highest it has ever been in the Earth's long history (see Sepkoski Curve). In a review of 16,009 species, most populations (85%) did not show significant trends in abundance, and those that did were balanced between winners (8%) and losers (7%) (Dornelas et al, 2019). There have been only 9 species of continental birds and mammals confirmed extinct since 1500 (Loehle, 2011). No global marine animals have become extinct in the past 50 years (McCauley et, 2015 using IUCN data). There is no climate crisis.
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  2. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Tropical Cyclones. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
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  3. This is a scare story about things you cannot see. To quote the Chief Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, Professor Penny Holliday, "There hasn't been a slow down. There hasn't been a slowing of the AMOC." Actual observations using the RAPID-MOCHA array from 2004 to 2023 show, that although there can be a great deal of variability of flow in the ocean from month to month or even day to day, there has been no decline in the Gulf Stream, with flow oscillating around 32Sv (32 million cubic metres per second) throughout the period of observation. Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26°N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength decreased from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again. No relationship to CO2. MOC spanning the North Atlantic at 27°N derived from RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS, satellite altimeter, and Argo floats for 1994 to 2020 shows no statistically significant decline (-0.06 Sv per decade). Furthermore blended meridional overturning basin-wide circulation (MOC) trend estimates (Sv) based on combinations of satellite altimetry and in situ hydrography data exist for the South Atlantic for 1994 onwards: at 34.5°S (often referred to as SAMBA) is +0.48Sv per decade. This is a significant positive trend, so no decline, no tipping point, no correlation to CO2. (GLOBAL OCEANS G. C. Johnson and R. Lumpkin, Eds., 2021) The OSNAP MOC Timeseries of observations from Canada to Greenland and across to Scotland, although a shorter timescale (from 2014), show no decline in MOC with the flow fluctuating around 17Sv. "Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state" Volkov et al, 2024 (published in Nature). This paper shows that a key component of AMOC, the Florida Current, has remained remarkably steady for over 40 years. There is no climate crisis. The North Atlantic current has doubled its velocity over the course of a quarter of century (Oziel et al, 2020). This is based on actual satellite observations. The idea the AMOC is going to shut down is based on modelling. There is minimal real world evidence to support these outlandish claims. It relies upon climate models. You know, those Magical Truth Machines that keep making false predictions. It claims with 95% certainty that the AMOC with collapse by the end of the century. Come on! Really? These numerical models produce ocean circulations that are far from what we actually observe. These models can't even replicate one of the key physical processes, Convection, in ocean currents "because convection is a small-scale process, it is not captured well in most current models (Jackson et al (2023)" (Rahmstorf, 2024). So they can't model Convection. So they can't model ocean currents.  The most recent research into the AMOC confirms it is not weakening. From a 2024 paper by Terhaar et al published in Nature Communications "Based on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heatflux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products, the decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5°N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017". So not even close to a tipping point or collapse. Sea surface temperatures (SST) were trending downwards 2000-2018 (HadSST 4), and from 1950-1980, and from 1880-1910. The oceans warmed at a faster rate 1910-1940 than 1980-2010. Remember CO2 has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate all the time, so there is little correlation between the two. Also the 'Cold Blob' has disappeared from North Atlantic surface temperatures, when annual anomalies for 2013-2023 are compared to the average for the period 1979-2010 (ECMWF ERA5). The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) shows a Sea Surface Temperature departure of over +2°C exactly where the Cold Blob used to be. It may have been there but it's gone. Looking more carefully using NOAA ERSST V5 data for North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (50N-65N, 50W-10W) shows in 1942 a +1°C anomaly declining to -0.7°C in 1992 then rising to almost +1°C in 2010, declining again to -0.6°C in 2010, and of course rising again to +0.75°C in 2023. There are also oscillations in the data back to the 1850s, but there is no trend overall up or down, and no correlation to CO2. The same is true for the heat content in the North Atlantic down to 1000m (Met Office data). No correlation to CO2, just a natural variability. That's the data. The Cold Blob is an artefact. The North Atlantic ocean has cooled and warmed rapidly and repeatedly during the current interglacial with no correlation to CO2 e.g. 10,300-10,200 years before the present (y BP), 9,500y BP, 6,000-5,900y BP, 5,400-5,300y BP, 2,500-2,300y BP, 1,700-1,600y BP (Berner et al., 2008. See Figure 8 in the paper). There is a high frequency (18 events) of SST variability on the order of 1-3°C during a 10-50 year time resolution throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic with no correlation to CO2. And Life just carried on.
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  4. There is no climate crisis. The Earth was warmer in the recent and distant past. It also warmed faster in the past.
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  5. In the past few months, the World's Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has declined by 0.5°C so that it has returned to the temperature in December 2015 (Daily Sea Surface Temperature World 60°N-60°S 0-360°E NOAA OISST V2.1 dataset available on the ClimateReanalyzer website). The recent off trend temperature rise began before El Niño and was not predicted by climate scientists. The size of the temperature rise was not predicted by climate scientists. The rapid cooling of the ocean back down 2015 levels before the commencement of the next La Niña was not predicted. If the heat energy content of the World's oceans has increased by 400ZJ since 1960, and the atmosphere has absorbed about ¹/100 th that amount, there is no way an increase of 100ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere has forced that much heat into the ocean. The atmosphere does not hold enough energy. It is not possible for the energy in the atmosphere to affect the ocean temperature changes seen recently or in the long term. In fact the atmosphere is not trapping more energy as the "greenhouse gas" CO2 increases, but the atmosphere is emitting increasing amounts of energy into space as longwave radiation. This is contrary to the idea of man-made global warming. Nearly all of the energy the ocean receives comes directly from sunlight. The current warming trend, and the heat of 2023-2024 is not explained by the rise in gases like CO2. There has been an increase in Absorbed Solar Radiation of around +1W/m²/decade with a record anomaly in 2023 around +1.83W/m² (CERES) or +1.31W/m² (ERA5). This is correlated with Total Solar Irradiance (how shiny the Sun is), which reached an all time record-breaking high in 2023 and 2024 as confirmed by satellite measurement (SORCE and TSIS). 90% of this solar radiation is absorbed directly by the ocean. 1% is absorbed by the atmosphere. Changing Greenhouse gas concentration has no effect on this increase in ASR. There is more energy from the Sun reaching the ocean, and this is warming it, and then the ocean is warming the atmosphere, then the atmosphere is radiating this energy away into space at an increasing rate. “The EEI [Earth's Energy Imbalance] trend and 2023 peak are not associated with decreasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations" "Instead, OLR has been increasing and largely offsetting even stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies" (Goessling et al., 2024)
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