Comments by "Old Scientist" (@OldScientist) on "Get.factual"
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In the last two years Antarctica has added massive amounts of ice.
Antarctic ice sheet (1992-2020) annual loss was 90Gt/yr. It's total mass is 24,380,000 Gt (24380000000000000 tons), so it loses less than 0.0004% of its mass annually, which I think you could reasonably round down to zero. It contributed 0.36mm to sea-level rise per year (that's essentially nothing as well). At that rate it will take well over ¼ million years to melt, but we are due for two more glacial periods in that time. That ice is here to stay.
There's a bit of a problem with the accelerating ice loss in Antarctica idea. It's not accelerating. If you want to dig down to the actual data, that is. Just so we're clear, I'm referring to the paper entitled "Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020" by Otosaka et al, 2023. Can I direct you to table 2, and the text below it?
If we include the APIS in "continental" (although I wouldn't) there's no pattern with a slight loss overall - neglible. EAIS, by far the larger of the continent's ice caps, both by surface and volume, hasn't lost mass. It has gained mass, but again it's neglible. So that leaves us with WAIS. It's only WAIS that's driving the mass loss from Antarctica, and you can see that from the Figure 4 graph. Figure 4 and Table 2 show there is a step up in mass loss around 2007. You might want to call that an acceleration. However there's a deceleration from 2017 or at least a noticeable reduction in the rate of annual ice mass loss for the period 2017-2020 when compared to 2012-2016.
So accelerating then decelerating. The Antarctic Ice sheet is massive and it's never going to melt on the timescale of human civilisation.
Then of course since 2000 the Antarctic Ice Sheet cumulative mass balance has either been steady according to NASA GRACE or increasing according to Velicogna et al.
The whole of East and West Antarctica is cooling, and has been for 40 years. East Antarctica has cooled by an impressive 0.7°C per decade. Resulting in an overall substantial and statistically significant decline of 2.8°C since 1980. So much for "Global" warming. I am referring to a paper by Zhu et al (2021) that looked at the reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset. Check out table 4. Furthermore, the Antarctic Peninsula ice has since been shown to be on the increase “The eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has grown in area over the last 20 years, due to changing wind and sea ice patterns.” (University of Cambridge, May, 2022.)
In reality, "there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979." (Fogt et al, 2022. Published in Nature) "since 1979 is the only time all four seasons demonstrate significant increases in total Antarctic sea ice in the context of the twentieth century".
A study of Antarctic ice shelves from 1980 to 2021 (Banwell et al, 2023) showed meltwater volume dropped with "decreasing trend in both annual melt days and meltwater production volume over the 41 years.”
"Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023). It is from a paper entitled "Change in Antarctic Ice Shelf Area from 2009 to 2019". They use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on 34 ice shelves in Antarctica from 2009 to 2019. Also, as the mass gain (661Gt) was given, you could calculate the volume of the ice gained using the formula: Volume = Mass ÷ Density (assume Density of glacier ice 0.9167 Gt/km³). This would give you (well not you obviously) an Ice Gain Volume ≈721km³. That's how much extra of the lovely white stuff there is around Antarctica. Imagine standing in the centre of this extra ice. It would stretch beyond the horizon in all directions and would be 45 storeys high.
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@HealingLifeKwikly
Now now, there's no need for ad hominem.
Antarctic ice sheet (1992-2020) annual loss was 90Gt/yr. It's total mass is 24,380,000 Gt (24380000000000000 tons), so it loses less than 0.0004% of its mass annually, which I think you could reasonably round down to zero. It contributed 0.36mm to sea-level rise per year (that's essentially nothing as well). At that rate it will take well over ¼ million years to melt, but we are due for two more glacial periods in that time. That ice is here to stay.
There's a bit of a problem with the accelerating ice loss in Antarctica idea. It's not accelerating. If you want to dig down to the actual data, that is. Just so we're clear, I'm referring to the paper entitled "Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020" by Otosaka et al, 2023. Can I direct you to table 2, and the text below it?
If we include the APIS in "continental" (although I wouldn't) there's no pattern with a slight loss overall - neglible. EAIS, by far the larger of the continent's ice caps, both by surface and volume, hasn't lost mass. It has gained mass, but again it's neglible. So that leaves us with WAIS. It's only WAIS that's driving the mass loss from Antarctica, and you can see that from the Figure 4 graph. Figure 4 and Table 2 show there is a step up in mass loss around 2007. You might want to call that an acceleration. However there's a deceleration from 2017 or at least a noticeable reduction in the rate of annual ice mass loss for the period 2017-2020 when compared to 2012-2016.
So accelerating then decelerating. The Antarctic Ice sheet is massive and it's never going to melt on the timescale of human civilisation.
Then of course since 2000 the Antarctic Ice Sheet cumulative mass balance has either been steady according to NASA GRACE or increasing according to Velicogna et al.
The whole of East and West Antarctica is cooling, and has been for 40 years. East Antarctica has cooled by an impressive 0.7°C per decade. Resulting in an overall substantial and statistically significant decline of 2.8°C since 1980. So much for "Global" warming. I am referring to a paper by Zhu et al (2021) that looked at the reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset. Check out table 4. Furthermore, the Antarctic Peninsula ice has since been shown to be on the increase “The eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has grown in area over the last 20 years, due to changing wind and sea ice patterns.” (University of Cambridge, May, 2022.)
In reality, "there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979." (Fogt et al, 2022. Published in Nature) "since 1979 is the only time all four seasons demonstrate significant increases in total Antarctic sea ice in the context of the twentieth century".
A study of Antarctic ice shelves from 1980 to 2021 (Banwell et al, 2023) showed meltwater volume dropped with "decreasing trend in both annual melt days and meltwater production volume over the 41 years.”
"Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023). It is from a paper entitled "Change in Antarctic Ice Shelf Area from 2009 to 2019". They use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on 34 ice shelves in Antarctica from 2009 to 2019. Also, as the mass gain (661Gt) was given, you could calculate the volume of the ice gained using the formula: Volume = Mass ÷ Density (assume Density of glacier ice 0.9167 Gt/km³). This would give you (well not you obviously) an Ice Gain Volume ≈721km³. That's how much extra of the lovely white stuff there is around Antarctica. Imagine standing in the centre of this extra ice. It would stretch beyond the horizon in all directions and would be 45 storeys high.
1
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@HealingLifeKwikly
Antarctic ice sheet (1992-2020) annual loss was 90Gt/yr. It's total mass is 24,380,000 Gt (24380000000000000 tons), so it loses less than 0.0004% of its mass annually, which I think you could reasonably round down to zero. It contributed 0.36mm to sea-level rise per year (that's essentially nothing as well). At that rate it will take well over ¼ million years to melt, but we are due for two more glacial periods in that time. That ice is here to stay.
There's a bit of a problem with the accelerating ice loss in Antarctica idea. It's not accelerating. If you want to dig down to the actual data, that is. Just so we're clear, I'm referring to the paper entitled "Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020" by Otosaka et al, 2023. Can I direct you to table 2, and the text below it?
If we include the APIS in "continental" (although I wouldn't) there's no pattern with a slight loss overall - neglible. EAIS, by far the larger of the continent's ice caps, both by surface and volume, hasn't lost mass. It has gained mass, but again it's neglible. So that leaves us with WAIS. It's only WAIS that's driving the mass loss from Antarctica, and you can see that from the Figure 4 graph. Figure 4 and Table 2 show there is a step up in mass loss around 2007. You might want to call that an acceleration. However there's a deceleration from 2017 or at least a noticeable reduction in the rate of annual ice mass loss for the period 2017-2020 when compared to 2012-2016.
So accelerating then decelerating. The Antarctic Ice sheet is massive and it's never going to melt on the timescale of human civilisation.
Then of course since 2000 the Antarctic Ice Sheet cumulative mass balance has either been steady according to NASA GRACE or increasing according to Velicogna et al.
The whole of East and West Antarctica is cooling, and has been for 40 years. East Antarctica has cooled by an impressive 0.7°C per decade. Resulting in an overall substantial and statistically significant decline of 2.8°C since 1980. So much for "Global" warming. I am referring to a paper by Zhu et al (2021) that looked at the reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset. Check out table 4. Furthermore, the Antarctic Peninsula ice has since been shown to be on the increase “The eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has grown in area over the last 20 years, due to changing wind and sea ice patterns.” (University of Cambridge, May, 2022.)
In reality, "there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979." (Fogt et al, 2022. Published in Nature) "since 1979 is the only time all four seasons demonstrate significant increases in total Antarctic sea ice in the context of the twentieth century".
A study of Antarctic ice shelves from 1980 to 2021 (Banwell et al, 2023) showed meltwater volume dropped with "decreasing trend in both annual melt days and meltwater production volume over the 41 years.”
"Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023). It is from a paper entitled "Change in Antarctic Ice Shelf Area from 2009 to 2019". They use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on 34 ice shelves in Antarctica from 2009 to 2019. Also, as the mass gain (661Gt) was given, you could calculate the volume of the ice gained using the formula: Volume = Mass ÷ Density (assume Density of glacier ice 0.9167 Gt/km³). This would give you (well not you obviously) an Ice Gain Volume ≈721km³. That's how much extra of the lovely white stuff there is around Antarctica. Imagine standing in the centre of this extra ice. It would stretch beyond the horizon in all directions and would be 45 storeys high.
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