Comments by "Fredinno" (@innosam123) on "Whatifalthist" channel.

  1. Crimea is strategically important to control the Black Sea, but yeah, it’s not as likely.
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  2. The Allies didn’t finish off Turkey after the war even though they were supposed to, and the Allies didn’t support the Whites even though they were supposed to be allied due to war exhaustion.
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  3. 17:30 But ruralization occurred due to the fall of the Roman Empire, not social change. You couldn’t sustain the same number of people in the cities without trade networks, so people left. I think the connection is purely coincidence. Also, lots of the Red states on the map DO have large rural areas for the most part. Eastern Washington and Oregon are huge areas. Also, rural areas’ infrastructure is more costly. This is a point Tim Pool made- that there’s actually a limit to how cheap real estate actually gets the further away from civilization you go due to the need to add infrastructure. Also, manufacturing still needs humans in congregations. This implies the dominance of small cities and towns, rather than just the countryside.
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  4. What if the Millennium Eruption (a supervolcano eruption that destroyed an entire Korean Kingdom) never happened?
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  5. Cotton was pretty important for industrialization, though, which you kind of ignored.
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  6.  @ingold1470  That implies that modern leftism continues dominant. Which seems kind of unlikely- not really want to be a Trumpet here, but 2020 was only barely won by having the entire elite class and populist left unite against the least popular president in decades (at least on paper). Which is not a stable alliance, which is why there is almost desperation to implement the policies to ensure they stay in power as soon as possible (HR-1, Multi-Billion dollar stimuluses with flimsy justifications, etc.) The ‘Merkelite’ EU is only lasting as long as Merkel remains in power. Without her, the EU in its current state is doomed. Mainly because no one can really replace her. The current ‘West’ basically doesn’t have a leader anymore, or really a stable dominant ideological faction. The most likely scenario is a brutal ideological civil war a la Spain 1938.
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  7. Regarding their products, or their style? Anything Elon Musk does is basically the definition of “chaos” and “drama”.
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  8.  @theamazing2435  I think the opposite. In Latin America ‘doing their own thing’ has meant protectionism and socialism, which has hampered Latin America economically.
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  9.  @WhatifAltHist  My argument is that they wouldn't be able to hold the lands (it's much easier to get to there from the American side than the Mexican side), and Sonora would be left with California and the Desert. Texas just isn't defensible in any way, and so you'd be left with a core in California and a comparatively impoverished Sonora. This map shows why: https://1drv.ms/u/s!AphyHYpEjmp-gqkS66W7rhZhj6T9Ag?e=HfBQaT Even with the scenario as you made it, the USA minus Texas and California is still a superpower in OTL. Unless they manage to conquer all of the Great Plains.
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  10. Austria-Hungary didn’t occupy Romania in OTL, why would they in this TL? Also, Japan declared war on the USA largely because the Philippines threatened their supply lines to the DEI.
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  11.  @compatriot852  Mexico could never become a superpower as long as the US exists. Brazil has massive problems with internal unity due to its geography and varied cultural landscape, that are only rivalled on the Americas by Canada. That makes it difficult to project power even if Brazil becomes wealthy.
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  12.  @Raul_Menendez  2020: China will be the next superpower and overtake the USA! 2005: Europe will be the next superpower and overtake the USA! 1986: Japan will be the next superpower and overtake the USA! 1950: The Soviet Union will be the next superpower and overtake the USA!
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  13. LET'S GET DOWN TO BUISNESS
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  14. Yeah. Rarely when people talk about ‘College Educated Elite’ do they talk about STEM professionals. Both the Right and Left respect them, and rarely are they activists for some social cause trying to advance their social class (unless it’s better conditions.) Even computer science is far closer to the ‘real world’ of compromise, hard work, problem-solving, and teamwork compared to the Social Sciences and Liberal Arts.
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  15.  @Honorbound43  Russia won’t try to conquer Ukraine. It made its demands very clear: make sure Ukraine never joins NATO. If it invades, it’s going to be used as a bargaining chip. Also, Russia already has the power to ‘help’ rewrite Ukraine’s constitution. Russia already has Ukraine half up its asshole. Putin would be a retard to try to annex Ukraine when it’s already compromised in his favour.
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  16. Then again, how easy would it be to maintain an isolated exclave like that?
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  17.  @mikehawk4856  …Who produce stuff with American designs and parts from other developed nations (as well as the USA)? People forget that even if something is “Made in China”, only a small fraction of the actual value of the product is from China. People also underestimate how difficult high-end manufacturing is. China has tried to become self-sufficient in chips, and spent billions to do so- only to fail completely and be on the exact same position of importing chips. The USA is also the 2nd largest manufacturing power in the world. It still produces a ton of stuff (and actually more now than ever, due to a lot of reasons).
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  18. There is one thing I disagree with, though, which is the Sweden unable to hold all that land. Lithuania started off much smaller, and also gained an enormous amount of land that was ethnically different. It was united with Poland late on though, so no one knows how it would eventually have played out.
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  19. Caviat: Stopping inflation by moving to a static- base currency (like Gold) would result in mass deflation due to demographic aging, thus, causing real debt loads to increase until there is either very little debt, or an economic depression as mass bankruptcy occurs. The current economy effectively can’t run on a static-base currency, because it assumes inflation is the norm. Which can work- if wages keep in pace with inflation.
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  20.  @hkl1459  Not entirely accurate. There is a lot to exploit in Africa. The issue is lack of infrastructure, or market to exploit for... anything. Everything has to be created from scratch, requiring huge amounts of investment. This made most African colonies lose money. It’s like the Americas, except with large populations of rebellious natives that didn’t die off.
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  21. Sealdrop Neither did Finland.
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  22. 15:00 Okinawa was never part of China. It was a tributary of China, but it was independent until Japan annexed it in the Victorian Era.
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  23.  @TheEmolano  Why?
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  24. What if the Kingdom of Burgundy survived? What if the French demographic decline didn’t happen? What if Hitler never existed?
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  25. I think the Cape would end up as an African Israel. Armed to the teeth, unusually industrialized, constantly attacked by its neighbours, while also having stable demographics. And also semi-Aparthetic.
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  26. Technically, there was a conflict over some border provinces when the two were gaining independence, but it’s not really a thing anymore. Hungary and Slovakia however… Ironically, Hitler did a better job drawing borders for Hungary than the entente did after WW1. Huge Hungarian minorities outside Hungary.
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  27. 28:13 Nero was an incredibly popular emperor. Note that the records regarding Nero were largely written by the groups that hated him (elites and Christians), so that negatively influences our perception of a man who, at minimum, doesn’t appear to have been that bad (probably.) Also, he turned out to be a girl and be able to be summoned as a Servant, but what do I know about that?
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  28.  @Thecognoscenti_1  Well, yeah, ‘Not all Chinese’ are bad warriors, in the same way not all Indians are bad warriors (eg. Nepali and Punjabis- basically the highlands of India.) If you create a statement that applies to hundreds of millions of people, there are going to exceptions that are subgroups.
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  29. TBH, a Depression is not likely. You showed the Debt-to-GDP ratio as a a supporting factor in your argument- but it’s only a meaningful number if you include private as well as public debt to GDP. Private debt to GDP in the developed world has fallen since 2008, resulting in overall stagnation or decline in total debt-to-GDP. Economists generally agree that public debt is less of an issue than private debt due to the fact they can just print money (which has issues, but not as bad as private sector defaults.) There is a reason Japan has such a high government debt-to-GDP and is still a stable, functioning economy. Worst case scenario is stagflation. Second, despite the arguments from Austrian economists, there has not been a single economic depression since 1946 (COVID was artificial, and cheating- if I included it, I would also have to include the similar 1920 depression.) Meanwhile, from 1830-1930, there were 3 depressions. Arguably, without interventionism, there would have been 2 more depressions- the late 1970s, and 2008. No inflation… and worse economic performance. Global currencies have always been maintained by the geopolitical and commercial strength of the nations backing it. Britain was not the only nation with currencies backed by Gold. Its decline coincides almost perfectly with its decline as a superpower. Has it been abused? Yes. So did Britain. That’s just how it works. Countries use their power for good and evil. Is it right? Arguably no, but that’s not the point. This is the same “guilt” you’ve criticized the modern left for. —- Note also that the current bout of inflation is also accompanied by reindustrialization and economic growth in North America. No matter how badly Biden tries to fuck it up.
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  30. NPC 19867 They didn’t in OTL, and there is literally no reason to assume they would in TTL.
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  31. Sir Adrian That’s why he said they would be barely connected to Rome.
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  32. LOL Diamond 101 Capitalism can exist in slave societies. Not to mention the Roman Empire was big enough that complex trade networks could form in spite of mercantilism. Scandinavia isn’t exactly free market libertarian, but it also definitely not socialistic. It’s capitalistic. Nothing you said really disproves my point.
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  33. RobinsonCrouse24 He meant it was a command economy that was proto- communistic.
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  34. RobinsonCrouse24 Feudalism was not a command economy. States were highly weak in Feudal societies.
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  35. WI Charles the Bold succeeded in making Burgundy a Kingdom?
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  36.  @jackyex  Bolivia, Cuba, Venezuela? Raise any bells?
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  37. The French would be able to keep most of its Empire. Not just it’s loose control over West Africa, but also North Africa, which would be settled with French settlers. Libya and Egypt were also almost French colonies. The population of Africa was low enough that even West Africa could become majority- White with enough people in France. The Entire Western Half of Africa being European would have interesting consequences. Maybe the Portuguese and Spanish Empire survives without such a drive for decolonization, and the support from France. Which would also mean Rhodesia and South Africa would be in a better position to survive.
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  38. Jeffery Handerson How do you think Ethnic Koreans feel?
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  39. I would like to note that most Mercenaries are actually just Veterans who decide to keep fighting in Wars because they want to (or because they fail to integrate back into Civilian life.) So this makes the situation for the Left even worse. They’re the same pool of people who would likely join the Right to begin with. It’s like hiring Goths to fight the Goths.
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  40.  @PragmaticAntithesis  Europe is also well-known for being the most regulated and taxed market of all major world markets. (Hence why it’s the ‘gold standard’ for regulatory protection. GDP is misleading on a macro level mostly if economies are in investment bubbles or due to high population sizes (see China, Japan in 1980s and 1990s). This does not apply here.
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  41. 13:50 ONE Soviet leader did- Khrushchev. Which is why the corn lord was one of the better and more under-appreciated leaders of the communist world. He at least seemed to care about the Russian people, rather than competing with the West, or trying to create a communist utopia.
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  42.  @jackyex  Remember, I did add the caviat that Argentina keeps somehow finding ways to fuck itself over even when everything is in its favour. You can bring a horse to water but not have it drink. Even Spain, the nation responsible for giving birth to Latin America, became developed. Surely with access to the largest markets, resources, as well as plentiful and quality human capital and favourable geopolitical situations, many can ultimately succeed. And I think it’s unfair to put down the reforms made by Macri. He made some pretty decent strides in liberalization before getting hit with bad economic luck.
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  43. @Metsarebuff 22 The Soviet Army reformed seriously after the Winter War and WW2. The main issue was that they had no experience with the Navy, or indeed amphibious landings. They weren't as good as the Germans, but 'overwhelming number' implies the Russian Civil War-style swarm tactics.
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  44.  @ub3rfr3nzy94  Capitalism IS a synonym for trade. Capitalism is defined by the existence of private property and trade.
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  45. Japan was actually also losing due to guerilla warfare from the Koreans, so it’s going to remain a bloody struggle for power even without Yi. All removing Yi does is making supporting Japanese troops easier.
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  46. TBF, there is a ton of evidence China is in a massive economic bubble. Look at its RE prices in relation to wealth.
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  47. Note about housing prices: The 60s and 50s were the best period in history to become a homebuyer- prior to this, most people were renters. The automobile and highway had opened up huge amounts of land to suburbanization, making land incredibly cheap. This is impossible today, as all the land within reasonable driving radius (and beyond) has been used up in most major cities, forcing a transition to densification to keep housing supply adequate. However, there is little incentive for this, as residents tend to vote for people who keep their own house prices high so that they can have more money. This means less development.
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  48. What do you want them to do that they aren’t doing? It’s likely that they’ll stop importing Russian energy within the next few months (despite being horrendously reliant on it), a fuck ton of equipment has been sent to Ukraine, pretty much every financial connection and channel to Russia minus energy has been cut, and Finland and Sweden are only stalled from NATO accession due to Turkey. The only way you could go further is to actually send boots on the ground or planes in the sky, which aren’t options due to the risk of Nuclear War. If we’d listened to Reagan with SDI instead of mocking him, we wouldn’t be in this situation.
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  49.  @nomanor7987  Tell that to the millions in Chinese concentration camps. Or the North Koreans who were propped up by the Chinese government. Or the 6 million Ukrainian refugees.
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  50. Psilocybin X It got cancelled (effectively) a while ago because they ran out of money.
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